Here we go again, folks….
Until at least 14 January.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 021-12-18/

FlyingElvii wrote:

Here we go again, folks….
Until at least 14 January.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 021-12-18/

Yeah, a new government was announced a few days ago, so i guess suddenly our politicians are willing to take hard decisions again.

This has gone from being a pandemic to a darn circus.

fallap wrote:

This has gone from being a pandemic to a darn circus.

Yep. The more governments use lockdowns as a first resort the more citizens will just ignore restrictions.

And this will be a blow for the vaccine effort. We were told vaccines would be the way out of this. So what’s the point if they just keep using lockdowns?

Sure this may cause a spike in people getting a booster over the next few weeks, but I think overall the percentage of the population who get a booster will be far less than the original jab, because a lot of people will think “what’s the point - I got the jabbed but I’m still being locked down just like the unvaccinated so why should I bother getting a booster?”

Especially an overreaction when looking at how Omicron has caused less strain on the health system in South Africa than Delta. And some preliminary data coming out of the UK showing the hospitalisation numbers are overinflated, far more being admitted for other reasons but testing positive to Omicron once in hospital.

It’s far behind time governments stopped being “Covid Absolutists” and took a more holistic approach to the nation’s health.

davidjohnson6 wrote:

politicians typically overreact for fear of being seen to not to be in control and losing votes....

This government was formed just 2 days ago. They have not even been officially sworn in yet!
I don’t think loosing votes is a major concern now, since most voters only have a short term memory and won’t be called to vote for another 3,5 years anyway.

sierrakilo44 wrote:

It’s far behind time governments stopped being “Covid Absolutists” and took a more holistic approach to the nation’s health.

Coming to a Christmas near you soon - "Lockdown. This time it's bad." Staring, produced and directed by, The Clown of Downing St.

I'm in Belgium at the moment - it feels like practically all of the Netherlands has come over to Bruges, Lieges, and Antwerp to party it up.

They shouldn't lock down the boosted. The issue is filling hospitals. All indications are the boosted have good immunity.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... sters-help

I would surmise vaccinated kids are also very low risk. There needs to be a reward for doing the right thing.

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns. It will be interesting to see when the UK's massive booster campaign works.

Lightsaber

davidjohnson6 wrote:

The standard pattern in any pandemic... is that politicians initially ignore the issue for fear of losing votes until way too late... but by the time the pandemic has become entrenched politicians typically overreact for fear of being seen to not to be in control and losing votes....

In the USA, due to the fast and easy spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, Democrat Party politicians are trying to put in some limits on public activities, require masks, vaccination to enter a bar or place to eat, but due to fear of losing their next election to libertarian Republicans and creating financial chaos, they won't go very far. Still voluntary acts from shutting down certain large public events like NY Broadway plays, sports events are taking place mainly to limit civil liability to workers and spectators.

stlgph wrote:

I'm in Belgium at the moment - it feels like practically all of the Netherlands has come over to Bruges, Lieges, and Antwerp to party it up.

Just like how the curfew didn’t limit the number of people congregating in public. 100 people went out but instead of being spread out over a night they were all jammed into the same small place at once.

If governments keep this up then the Conspiracy Theorists are going to have a lot of new followers and not without cause.....

lightsaber wrote:

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns.

ICU admissions in the Netherlands have been dropping since December 1.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... re-opnames

This is roughly correlating when the total case numbers fell, and they haven’t starting going up due Omicron, or even in the last day or two

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... ste-mensen

The reproduction number is below 1

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... uctiegetal

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

Now I know it’s tough in an ICU but we can’t run a country based only on whether or not ICU workers are comfortable. By all measured data this lockdown is unjustified and immoral, and if we keep it up civil disobedience will (in my opinion justly) rise, future vaccine efforts will fail and extremist conspiracy theorist politicians will gain majority support.

stlgph wrote:

I'm in Belgium at the moment - it feels like practically all of the Netherlands has come over to Bruges, Lieges, and Antwerp to party it up.

That is how Las Vegas was last February and March with Californians.

sierrakilo44 wrote:

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

I'm having an increasingly hard time understanding how people even put up with this sort of crap.

Not only are case numbers and mortality dropping in the Netherlands, but there is absolutely no concrete indication that Omicron might lead to overwhelming hospitalizations or anything like the damage the first wave or Delta wave caused.

Yet we see yet again the democratic leadership of a free country imposing harsh restrictions on basic freedoms based on a speculative and hypothetical situation with little to no factual basis.

I agreed with these desperate measures when the initial waves were wreaking havoc on an immunity-free population before vaccines were available. Now it just feels like politicians got a taste of the seemingly unchecked powers this virus gives them the excuse to exert and liked it...
It makes me feel extremely uncomfortable.

Francoflier wrote:

I agreed with these desperate measures when the initial waves were wreaking havoc on an immunity-free population before vaccines were available. Now it just feels like politicians got a taste of the seemingly unchecked powers this virus gives them the excuse to exert and liked it...
It makes me feel extremely uncomfortable.

Yeah.

A round of booster shots won’t solve it. Their immunity will wane after 6 months so we’ll be back to a winter virus that sends cases through the roof but doesn’t cause mass hospitalisation and death, but because everyone is panicking about cases and variants they’ll still panic and throw up lockdowns.

Can anyone in the Netherlands tell us what the reaction is to this news? I can’t imagine with high levels of vaccination and a dropping case load the decision will be very popular, or are most people planning on ignoring it?

I think it is widely anticipated that London will go into a lockdown within the next few days, and that the rest of the UK will follow suit after Christmas.
https://www.india.com/news/world/uk-may ... t-5145098/
https://www.mylondon.news/news/covid-lo ... p-22504431
https://www.india.com/news/world/omicro ... d-5145929/

The Netherlands are the closest country to South Africa, and many Dutch people occupy high ranks in the administration and medical sector, so they must have some inside knowledge about the virus. My view is that by having such a young population, most people may have overlooked that the vulnerable have already died, or there are some deep demographic differences.

The flu season is the biggest issue for the health service. South Africa has its flu season in June whereas the West has it very soon. Omicron + flu might be a disaster for example.

sierrakilo44 wrote:

Can anyone in the Netherlands tell us what the reaction is to this news? I can’t imagine with high levels of vaccination and a dropping case load the decision will be very popular, or are most people planning on ignoring it?

Looks like only 35% are supportive: https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/19/35-suppor ... res-survey

sierrakilo44 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns.

ICU admissions in the Netherlands have been dropping since December 1.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... re-opnames

Because Delta infections are dropping. Nothing to do with this lockdown, which is an attempt to slow down Omicron, not Delta. And Omicron cases are growing exponentially, also in the Netherlands.

This is roughly correlating when the total case numbers fell, and they haven’t starting going up due Omicron, or even in the last day or two

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... ste-mensen

Because Omicron isn't big enough just yet. I will be within a week.

The reproduction number is below 1

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... uctiegetal

For now. It WILL go higher than 1 once Omicron becomes dominant. Which it WILL.

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

By Christmas, case numbers will have started growing again.

Now I know it’s tough in an ICU but we can’t run a country based only on whether or not ICU workers are comfortable. By all measured data this lockdown is unjustified and immoral, and if we keep it up civil disobedience will (in my opinion justly) rise, future vaccine efforts will fail and extremist conspiracy theorist politicians will gain majority support.

All measured data, except for the one that matters: the rise of Omicron. The number of Omicron cases in the Netherlands, like pretty much everywhere else, is doubling every two to three days. People still don't appear to comprehend what that means, doubling every two to three days. There's a WALL headed towards us, not a wave.

Please keep this thread on topic, subject of discussion is the situation in the Netherlands. Thanks.

fallap wrote:

This has gone from being a pandemic to a darn circus.

You know what they say, if it hasn't worked in the past, it's probably a good idea to keep trying!

The problem put in two charts:

ICU-beds, in different scenario's:


Total hospitalbeds occupied by COVID patiens:


Current numbers (19 December), hospitalized: 2.323 of which 609 on the ICU's. So doing nothing it might be as high as 4.000plus on the ICU's and 17.000 in hospital. Given that the max number of ICU's in the Netherlands is: 1.350, 4.000plus would mean lots of people would have died, given that about 500 ICU beds are needed for all kinds of other emergencies. Given those scenario's our government finally decided to act sooner, rather than later. Let's see what will happen in the next month and hopefully, we will have the booster campaign in order and the lockdown will not be necessary anymore.

Link

On a side note, luckily I am not a minister right now, would be a hell of a job to make these kinds of callls.

Here in France the plan was to have the booster as quickly as possible, 15 millions people have gotten it already, still hospital tension is increasing so no more night clubs, now New Year's eve celebrations are being cancelled, a vaccine passport instead of "sanitary passport" (where a test can give you a green light) is being talked about to push the still unvaccinated to vaccinate, and clearly now we expect things to go wrong and a new lockdown to be imposed, but we'll see.

The idea with the COVID passport is indeed to reward the vaccinated and "punish" the unvaccinated, but since the vaccine isn't very effective at preventing transmission, as long as there are millions of unvaccinated people, if the virus is circulating like mad, then hospitals will be in trouble.

If this is how things continue, expect 2022 to be a year of anti-lockdown protests all over the world.
First it was "fletten the curve." Then it was "get the vax." Then "get the booster." ..... And still lockdowns.

Something that has become apparent in the UK is that there is going to be a problem with staff shortages in critical sectors if there isn't a lockdown, and I presume a similar situation is happening in the Netherlands. Too many staff are getting infected with COVID and normal tests cannot say which strain is causing it.

Until this lockdown, the Dutch government has done exactly the wrong thing time and again: restrict too slowly and relax too fast. This is the first time they try to be ahead of the curve, which is a good thing in my opinion.

Of course, if it works, people will complain that the lockdown was not needed. You cannot win.

sierrakilo44 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns.

ICU admissions in the Netherlands have been dropping since December 1.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... re-opnames

This is roughly correlating when the total case numbers fell, and they haven’t starting going up due Omicron, or even in the last day or two

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... ste-mensen

The reproduction number is below 1

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... uctiegetal

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

Now I know it’s tough in an ICU but we can’t run a country based only on whether or not ICU workers are comfortable. By all measured data this lockdown is unjustified and immoral, and if we keep it up civil disobedience will (in my opinion justly) rise, future vaccine efforts will fail and extremist conspiracy theorist politicians will gain majority support.

I’m sorry to say it, but you have missed the point.
“Unjustified and immoral?” Our government was always (too) late with imposing restrictions and got the blame for it. Now they want to be ahead with all the uncertainties the Omicron variant has, and you are fuming… really???
Today’s numbers don’t tell anything about what may come next.

marcelh wrote:

sierrakilo44 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns.

ICU admissions in the Netherlands have been dropping since December 1.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... re-opnames

This is roughly correlating when the total case numbers fell, and they haven’t starting going up due Omicron, or even in the last day or two

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... ste-mensen

The reproduction number is below 1

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... uctiegetal

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

Now I know it’s tough in an ICU but we can’t run a country based only on whether or not ICU workers are comfortable. By all measured data this lockdown is unjustified and immoral, and if we keep it up civil disobedience will (in my opinion justly) rise, future vaccine efforts will fail and extremist conspiracy theorist politicians will gain majority support.

I’m sorry to say it, but you have missed the point.
“Unjustified and immoral?” Our government was always (too) late with imposing restrictions and got the blame for it. Now they want to be ahead with all the uncertainties the Omicron variant has, and you are fuming… really???
Today’s numbers don’t tell anything about what may come next.

We are talking about severe and extreme curtailments of liberties and freedoms, along with fairly deleterious effects on many livelihoods.
There were clear justification for these in the early stages of the pandemic but now? Faced with a variant that has so far failed to overwhelm a healthcare system that lacks the means of those in Europe, in a nation with a much lower vaccination rate than Europe? And at a time where successive waves and large scale inoculation mean that most of the population now has some level of immunity?

All of these measures appear to be based on pure speculation, seemingly amplified by the current mediatic hysteria surrounding Omicron. No expert will dare express anything but the worst case scenario these days, for fear of being accused of misleading the public...
Do fear and 'what ifs' justify locking up an entire population in their homes right around the holiday season?

If the vast majority of the population thinks so, then fair enough, but how do we know it's the case?

scbriml wrote:

sierrakilo44 wrote:

It’s far behind time governments stopped being “Covid Absolutists” and took a more holistic approach to the nation’s health.

Coming to a Christmas near you soon - "Lockdown. This time it's bad." Staring, produced and directed by, The Clown of Downing St.

He's not alone in this.

President Biden, after arguing that Trump's body count should have forced Trump to resign is now facing a higher body count than before.

The mechanisms we had in January 2020 to control this were based off a "best guess" at the time from dealing with Tuberculosis, Flu and other communicable diseases. Some of these tools (like 6 feet of social distance) were entirely drawn from a different infectious agent (in that case, tuberculosis.)

We are now two years into it, and we've accepted all sorts of "Control" mechanisms without a clear idea of source (with the Chinese essentially ending any further investigation of any source of the virus and not being terribly forthcoming on other factors) or the efficacy of various control mechanisms. The debate on all sides has become highly politicized (see the recent Faucci/Collins emails about "quick and devastating...takedown" of the Great Barrington declaration.) Those emails honestly are more an insight in the smallness and meanness of university faculty or government bureaucrat internecine politics and not a measured answer to apparently informed and well-meaning scientific objection.

Because those who are dictating these policies have decided to be small and mean (all the while doing things like proclaiming "I Represent Science...quite a grand claim that even the Catholic hierarchy DIDN'T make in criticizing Galileo) we've gotten terrible public policy that is perceived as little more than the unelected doing the inexplicable.

acavpics wrote:

If this is how things continue, expect 2022 to be a year of anti-lockdown protests all over the world.
First it was "fletten the curve." Then it was "get the vax." Then "get the booster." ..... And still lockdowns.

And in North America, a completely single minded focus on anti-Covid measures with next to no consideration of other variables like increasing economic impacts or worse, secondary health care issues arising from COVID measures.

Francoflier wrote:

All of these measures appear to be based on pure speculation, seemingly amplified by the current mediatic hysteria surrounding Omicron. No expert will dare express anything but the worst case scenario these days, for fear of being accused of misleading the public...

I think these measures are based on mathematical models and past experience of always being too late. Hospitalizations have gone up today so the first signs are that the measures are justified.

Francoflier wrote:

Do fear and 'what ifs' justify locking up an entire population in their homes right around the holiday season?

Locking up is an exaggeration. People still go to work and/or enjoy the outdoors (beautiful day today). Many stores are still open. You can get fresh oliebollen if you want.

marcelh wrote:

sierrakilo44 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Since I have friends and relatives working the ICU wards, I understand the need for lockdowns.

ICU admissions in the Netherlands have been dropping since December 1.

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... re-opnames

This is roughly correlating when the total case numbers fell, and they haven’t starting going up due Omicron, or even in the last day or two

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... ste-mensen

The reproduction number is below 1

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/l ... uctiegetal

It’s going to be hard to justify a lockdown over Christmas looking at those numbers.

Now I know it’s tough in an ICU but we can’t run a country based only on whether or not ICU workers are comfortable. By all measured data this lockdown is unjustified and immoral, and if we keep it up civil disobedience will (in my opinion justly) rise, future vaccine efforts will fail and extremist conspiracy theorist politicians will gain majority support.

I’m sorry to say it, but you have missed the point.
“Unjustified and immoral?” Our government was always (too) late with imposing restrictions and got the blame for it. Now they want to be ahead with all the uncertainties the Omicron variant has, and you are fuming… really???
Today’s numbers don’t tell anything about what may come next.

It’s more than a little troubling that the knee-jerk go-to response continues to be the most interventionist, devastating (to livelihoods, the economy, mental health, liberal institutions anyhow), and unprecedented (with respect to its restrictions on basic freedoms in most countries) measures.

AeroVega wrote:

People still go to work

Unless of course you work for or own a non-essential business forced into closure.

flyguy89 wrote:

AeroVega wrote:

People still go to work

Unless of course you work for or own a non-essential business forced into closure.

Sure, but that's a different discussion than whether or not people in the Netherlands are "locked up".

Francoflier wrote:

All of these measures appear to be based on pure speculation, seemingly amplified by the current mediatic hysteria surrounding Omicron. No expert will dare express anything but the worst case scenario these days, for fear of being accused of misleading the public...

Have you looked at the chart I posted? It's from the RIVM, the Dutch institute for disease control (among other things). Sure, there is a degree of uncertainty in it, and it is actually much bigger than one would like, but the trend is clear. It shows hospitals will be overwhelmed if continued, so measures are needed.

Francoflier wrote:

Do fear and 'what ifs' justify locking up an entire population in their homes right around the holiday season?

That depends on what the alternative is. And the forecast wasn't very hopefull. So taking measures in January, after the holiday season, it was deemed to late

Francoflier wrote:

If the vast majority of the population thinks so, then fair enough, but how do we know it's the case?

How do we know? Simply ask them, that's what opinion polls are for. I haven't seen any polls about this lockdown, so we'll have to wait.

As this thread went off topic and turned into a general discussion please contineu your discussion either here:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021

or here:

Covid19 - Vaccine News and discussion thread