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Francoflier
Posts: 6166
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 3:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:

We need to add vaccination status to triage.


I can't believe this is not being done yet. The unvaccinated are literally robbing large quantities of beds away from people who deserve them more.
It's time they assumed the consequences of their choice.
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 4:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
One of my niece's school had a 50% positivity rate (Portland Oregon).

Looking at the upside, half the people concerned should soon be immune to further illness for quite a long time. Just hope they are not too seriously affected while infected.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 15183
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:45 pm

Stunning numbers from NC
The joint news conference comes alongside another day of record new cases of the virus in North Carolina. On Thursday, a record 24,292 new cases were reported, with 30.1% of tests returning positive over the past 24 hours.

As cases soar, local emergency departments are strained, and the number of people hospitalized for COVID -19 rose to 3,293 on Thursday, an increase of almost 200 from the day before.



At all WakeMed hospitals, only 1 in 10 ICU patients are fully vaccinated, and at Duke, all the patients on ECMO, a form of life support used for only the sickest patients, are unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-hos ... /20065686/
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:35 pm

I saw something interesting in a Dr John youtube video. It seems that half the people showing symptoms of common cold infection (runny nose etc) in a studied group in England/UK were actually infected with COVID-19. I cannot name the data source but a chart showing this appears at 5m17s in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1avXjzr1xnc
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:26 pm

art wrote:
I saw something interesting in a Dr John youtube video. It seems that half the people showing symptoms of common cold infection (runny nose etc) in a studied group in England/UK were actually infected with COVID-19. I cannot name the data source but a chart showing this appears at 5m17s in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1avXjzr1xnc



This goes with what I have heard from people that have tested positive( Vaccinated) lately. They thought they had a cold, till they tested positive).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:36 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
One of my niece's school had a 50% positivity rate (Portland Oregon).

Looking at the upside, half the people concerned should soon be immune to further illness for quite a long time. Just hope they are not too seriously affected while infected.

You are aware of long haul symptoms?

It won't be as interesting a high school if any suffer from coronavirus induced erectile dysfunction?
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/yes- ... sfunction/

“Erectile dysfunction can be a marker of overall health,” explains urologist Ryan Berglund, MD. “So particularly for young and healthy people who abruptly develop erectile dysfunction, and especially after having COVID-19, this can be a sign of something more serious going on.”

https://www.medindia.net/news/healthinf ... 4852-1.htm
Semen samples taken from 35 men within a month of their recovery showed a 60 percent drop in sperm's ability to move and a 37 percent reduction in sperm count. As the time of recovery from COVID-19 increased, the quality of sperm also improved.


This might be a self correcting problem...

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:42 am

casinterest wrote:
Stunning numbers from NC
The joint news conference comes alongside another day of record new cases of the virus in North Carolina. On Thursday, a record 24,292 new cases were reported, with 30.1% of tests returning positive over the past 24 hours.

As cases soar, local emergency departments are strained, and the number of people hospitalized for COVID -19 rose to 3,293 on Thursday, an increase of almost 200 from the day before.



At all WakeMed hospitals, only 1 in 10 ICU patients are fully vaccinated, and at Duke, all the patients on ECMO, a form of life support used for only the sickest patients, are unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-hos ... /20065686/

30.1% positive means only determined people can get tested.

Nasal swab testing doesn't catch Omicron for a few days:
https://news.yahoo.com/nasal-swab-tests ... 27921.html
According to a new real-world study, it may take an average of three days for people to test positive on a nasal-based lateral flow test (LFT) after their first positive PCR result.


My relative working the coronavirus ward is finding they have a 25% false negative rate with Omicron. The ER is now doing a test and if negative, holding the patient for a few hours and doing another test. They did a little experiment on sick doctors who volunteered and found out that if a person takes 8 nasal swab tests, 6 will be positive and 2 negative...

This will get interesting fast.
Lightsaber
 
acavpics
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:42 am

I just did a search on google for COVID-19 cases in New York City. And it seems like the line for 7 day average (on the graph from The New York Times) is starting to flatten out. Now, I know its too early to conclude anything, but could that be an indication that NYC is approaching the peak?

Or is it most likely just a fluctuation?

If anyone wants to replicate this search, I typed "New York COVID-19 cases" into google. The "New Cases and Deaths" graph from NY Times should show up. And in that, the settings should be as follows:

"New Cases" "United States" "New York" "New York City" "30 Days" <--- Set this time-frame to a 30 day window to clearly see the shape of the curve.

If this is indicative of a nearby peak, it is a fairly encouraging sign for neighboring cities and states, as they can expect to peak sometime soon.

Sadly, the rest of the country will still have a long way to go as their surges started a little later.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:01 am

Both of my children will participate in an experiment this weekend.
All of the kids in the local school district will test themselves for coronavirus on Saturday (kits were handed out today for elementary schools, tomorrow for older kids). Actually, several school districts are doing this.

Sadly, one of my coworkers lost her 25 year old niece to coronavirus. A fairly healthy niece as far as anyone knew.

acavpics wrote:
I just did a search on google for COVID-19 cases in New York City. And it seems like the line for 7 day average (on the graph from The New York Times) is starting to flatten out. Now, I know its too early to conclude anything, but could that be an indication that NYC is approaching the peak?

Or is it most likely just a fluctuation?

If anyone wants to replicate this search, I typed "New York COVID-19 cases" into google. The "New Cases and Deaths" graph from NY Times should show up. And in that, the settings should be as follows:

"New Cases" "United States" "New York" "New York City" "30 Days" <--- Set this time-frame to a 30 day window to clearly see the shape of the curve.

If this is indicative of a nearby peak, it is a fairly encouraging sign for neighboring cities and states, as they can expect to peak sometime soon.

Sadly, the rest of the country will still have a long way to go as their surges started a little later.

New York city has, in my opinion hit the limit on testing capacity. The USA is at 26.52% positivity. That is insane. You want < 5% positive. So ignore a flat line. Until cases decrease, we don't know the level of Omicron in areas heavily hit, in my opinion, as people cannot get tested. Locally, it is a 6 hour wait. In Massachusetts, my brother just had to wait 7 hours for a test (both his kids have Omicron as well as his son's girlfriend). Note: All were boosted, so one child was lethargic for two days and then ok, the other child and girlfriend only had the sniffles.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

My favorite dashboard shows 89.13% of coronavirus patients in the hospital are unvacs. Patient count is climbing (at 46 vs. capacity of 40). That means 6 patients are on a floor with regulator staffing levels (about 1/3rd the people of a coronavirus ward). Bummer for them.
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Omicron is burning out more nurses:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/omicron- ... h-kutscher
While covid cases are surging, the biggest threat for hospitals — particularly in places with high vaccination rates — seems to be less about ICU capacity and more about having enough workers to staff those beds, especially as health care professionals contract the virus themselves.

And nurses are already at their limit.

...

About 84% of registered nurses reported at least some degree of burnout, with 17% said they’re “very” burned out. And 40% said their job satisfaction has decreased as a result of the pandemic.


acavpics wrote:
I just did a search on google for COVID-19 cases in New York City. And it seems like the line for 7 day average (on the graph from The New York Times) is starting to flatten out. Now, I know its too early to conclude anything, but could that be an indication that NYC is approaching the peak?

Or is it most likely just a fluctuation?

If anyone wants to replicate this search, I typed "New York COVID-19 cases" into google. The "New Cases and Deaths" graph from NY Times should show up. And in that, the settings should be as follows:

"New Cases" "United States" "New York" "New York City" "30 Days" <--- Set this time-frame to a 30 day window to clearly see the shape of the curve.

If this is indicative of a nearby peak, it is a fairly encouraging sign for neighboring cities and states, as they can expect to peak sometime soon.

Sadly, the rest of the country will still have a long way to go as their surges started a little later.

NYC must be at the testing limit to find cases. The USA is at a staggering 26.52% positive. The flat line is likely due to a lack of testing, not a peak. We'll only know past the peak when more people test negative when an area is testing as much as they can.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Lightsaber
 
Duke91
Posts: 144
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:33 am

Well, this pill is supposed to be for those having symptoms within 5 days of infection, as well as those with a high risk of a severe disease (which is much lower for omicron patients). Not everyone is supposed to take the pill, only those at risk patients with comorbidities.
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 390
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:44 am

Would be nice to see a two week hard lockdown in the U.S. to help the country and health care system reset and recover. The unvaccinated are filling our hospitals and ICUs. After a lockdown we need vaccine passport to help slow the spread and save lives. It is sad that we have anti science conspiracy theories stopping people from getting the vaccine. Everyone by now should be getting boosted. Have zero issues getting the safe and effective boosters and wearing a mask. Australia and New Zealand have been much better models for how to handle a pandemic.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 126
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:48 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Stunning numbers from NC
The joint news conference comes alongside another day of record new cases of the virus in North Carolina. On Thursday, a record 24,292 new cases were reported, with 30.1% of tests returning positive over the past 24 hours.

As cases soar, local emergency departments are strained, and the number of people hospitalized for COVID -19 rose to 3,293 on Thursday, an increase of almost 200 from the day before.



At all WakeMed hospitals, only 1 in 10 ICU patients are fully vaccinated, and at Duke, all the patients on ECMO, a form of life support used for only the sickest patients, are unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-hos ... /20065686/

30.1% positive means only determined people can get tested.

Nasal swab testing doesn't catch Omicron for a few days:
https://news.yahoo.com/nasal-swab-tests ... 27921.html
According to a new real-world study, it may take an average of three days for people to test positive on a nasal-based lateral flow test (LFT) after their first positive PCR result.


My relative working the coronavirus ward is finding they have a 25% false negative rate with Omicron. The ER is now doing a test and if negative, holding the patient for a few hours and doing another test. They did a little experiment on sick doctors who volunteered and found out that if a person takes 8 nasal swab tests, 6 will be positive and 2 negative...

This will get interesting fast.
Lightsaber

I wish to clarify whether your relative's experiment was on nasal swab LFT or PCR. There will be very serious implications on every test and trace system if nasal swabs PCR tests also have a very high false negative rate for Omicron. If the 25% false negative rate figure holds up, basically that will spell the end of every test and trace system as the results will be so unreliable that there is no way to idenitfy close contacts who have not been infected.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:50 am

yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:

30.1% positive means only determined people can get tested.

Nasal swab testing doesn't catch Omicron for a few days:
https://news.yahoo.com/nasal-swab-tests ... 27921.html
According to a new real-world study, it may take an average of three days for people to test positive on a nasal-based lateral flow test (LFT) after their first positive PCR result.


My relative working the coronavirus ward is finding they have a 25% false negative rate with Omicron. The ER is now doing a test and if negative, holding the patient for a few hours and doing another test. They did a little experiment on sick doctors who volunteered and found out that if a person takes 8 nasal swab tests, 6 will be positive and 2 negative...

This will get interesting fast.
Lightsaber

I wish to clarify whether your relative's experiment was on nasal swab LFT or PCR. There will be very serious implications on every test and trace system if nasal swabs PCR tests also have a very high false negative rate for Omicron. If the 25% false negative rate figure holds up, basically that will spell the end of every test and trace system as the results will be so unreliable that there is no way to identify close contacts who have not been infected.

PCR.

One hospital, a limited subset of test subjects. Track and trace failed with fast paced spread. The UK might have had a chance... it let the virus go.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Sadly, the US hospital rate is going far too high. 119k in the hospital. So much for being a mild illness. The UK has a steep climb rate where they strategy is hope it peaks soon.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

We'll have to improve testing. With each variant becoming faster, it is becoming a case of how well protected is the individual.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:24 am

Duke91 wrote:
Well, this pill is supposed to be for those having symptoms within 5 days of infection, as well as those with a high risk of a severe disease (which is much lower for omicron patients). Not everyone is supposed to take the pill, only those at risk patients with comorbidities.

You know that criteria still cover a lot more people, right?
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:59 am

https://twitter.com/jeremydratcliff/sta ... 0468158464
Someone pointed out that, when saying Omicron have "lower hospitalization risk", it is usually compared to Delta, but Delta itself have higher hospitalization risk than like Alpha, and by plotting a graph of their hospitalization risk, it can be seen that Omicron despite having lower hospitalization risk than Delta, is still roughly as likely to hosoitalize infected as Alpha, and is more likely to send infected patients to hospital than the original Wuhan variant.
Source data for these are in the second tweet in the linked tweet thread.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:04 am

https://m.mingpao.com/pns/%E4%B8%AD%E5% ... 6%E3%80%8D

City of Xi'an in China reportedly achieved "COVID-zero in society" by relocating 42000 close contacts of known patients to outside the city
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:35 am

Got my booster yesterday. Kid tested positive today. Hope the 2 doesn’t add up;-)
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:04 am

c933103 wrote:
https://m.mingpao.com/pns/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/article/20220106/s00013/1641406739768/%E8%A5%BF%E5%AE%894-2%E8%90%AC%E4%BA%BA%E8%BD%89%E7%A7%BB%E9%9A%94%E9%9B%A2-%E5%85%A9%E5%91%A8%E8%BF%8E%E3%80%8C%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83%E9%9D%A2%E6%B8%85%E9%9B%B6%E3%80%8D

City of Xi'an in China reportedly achieved "COVID-zero in society" by relocating 42000 close contacts of known patients to outside the city


There are accounts that a thousand years ago King Knut of Denmark, Norway and England had his throne placed on the English shore and before his courtiers commanded the tide not to come in. It is said that Knut wanted to show the courtiers that whatever his power, there was a power greater than his. Substitute Knut with the governments of the world, substitute the tide with COVID-19 and the situation is not so different - except that some governments do believe they can hold the tide back ("COVID-zero in society").
 
TriJets
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:06 pm

bpatus297 wrote:
TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:

There is a huge difference between urged and forced. I would say losing your job if you don't get vaccinated is basically in the forced category for most. Not many can afford to be with out their job for long. You whataboutism with seatbelts is irrelevant. If the other person is at fault for the accident, yes I get the same damages and the same heath treatments. If they get seriously injured, that is a consequence of their decision, just like their decision to get vaccinated or not. That shouldn't change the treatment they get in either case. Again, beng anti-mandate does not make someone anti-vaccine. Weather or not I am vaccinated is none of your or anyone else's (except my Doctor's) freaking business.


I had to show proof of influenza and Hep B vaccinations in order to gain employment in the healthcare industry long before COVID existed. Vaccine mandates are nothing new for healthcare and for a number of other industries.


I can sort of understand that, don't necessarily agree with it, but I can understand the logic. But specific requirements determined on a one-by-one basis is vastly different from a sweeping over reaching mandate. Why does a trash collector, truck driver, plumber, etc. need to be vaccinated? Especially since the vaccine doesn't stop the spread.


From the employer's standpoint, a lot of it has to do with employee availability and insurance premiums. Many employers cover healthcare either directly or indirectly for their employees. If you have 5 employees that end up on vents or on ECMO you are looking at a multi-million dollar hospital bill that has to be covered.

Moreover, if vaccinated employees have to be out an average of 5 days due to quarantine due to COVID, but unvaccinated employees have to be out an average of 10 days due to them being sicker than vaccinated employees, it makes sense to mandate policies that will keep your employees safe which also means they will not have to miss much work. Several people I work with have been out for over a month with COVID (one person has been out nearly a year). Those long absences all would have been avoided had those people been vaccinated.
 
bpatus297
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:56 pm

TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:
TriJets wrote:

I had to show proof of influenza and Hep B vaccinations in order to gain employment in the healthcare industry long before COVID existed. Vaccine mandates are nothing new for healthcare and for a number of other industries.


I can sort of understand that, don't necessarily agree with it, but I can understand the logic. But specific requirements determined on a one-by-one basis is vastly different from a sweeping over reaching mandate. Why does a trash collector, truck driver, plumber, etc. need to be vaccinated? Especially since the vaccine doesn't stop the spread.


From the employer's standpoint, a lot of it has to do with employee availability and insurance premiums. Many employers cover healthcare either directly or indirectly for their employees. If you have 5 employees that end up on vents or on ECMO you are looking at a multi-million dollar hospital bill that has to be covered.

Moreover, if vaccinated employees have to be out an average of 5 days due to quarantine due to COVID, but unvaccinated employees have to be out an average of 10 days due to them being sicker than vaccinated employees, it makes sense to mandate policies that will keep your employees safe which also means they will not have to miss much work. Several people I work with have been out for over a month with COVID (one person has been out nearly a year). Those long absences all would have been avoided had those people been vaccinated.


Again, where does it stop? Are you okay with insurance companies charging different rates based on high risk activities you engage in (playing hockey, sky diving, etc.)? What about charging a higher rate if you have a pre-existing condition? Weren't we fighting to keep them from doing that before the pandemic? We are going down that road. What if the person has a medical condition that keeps them from getting the vaccine, should they be charged a higher fee too?
 
santi319
Posts: 1261
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:11 pm

bpatus297 wrote:
TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:

I can sort of understand that, don't necessarily agree with it, but I can understand the logic. But specific requirements determined on a one-by-one basis is vastly different from a sweeping over reaching mandate. Why does a trash collector, truck driver, plumber, etc. need to be vaccinated? Especially since the vaccine doesn't stop the spread.


From the employer's standpoint, a lot of it has to do with employee availability and insurance premiums. Many employers cover healthcare either directly or indirectly for their employees. If you have 5 employees that end up on vents or on ECMO you are looking at a multi-million dollar hospital bill that has to be covered.

Moreover, if vaccinated employees have to be out an average of 5 days due to quarantine due to COVID, but unvaccinated employees have to be out an average of 10 days due to them being sicker than vaccinated employees, it makes sense to mandate policies that will keep your employees safe which also means they will not have to miss much work. Several people I work with have been out for over a month with COVID (one person has been out nearly a year). Those long absences all would have been avoided had those people been vaccinated.


Again, where does it stop? Are you okay with insurance companies charging different rates based on high risk activities you engage in (playing hockey, sky diving, etc.)? What about charging a higher rate if you have a pre-existing condition? Weren't we fighting to keep them from doing that before the pandemic? We are going down that road. What if the person has a medical condition that keeps them from getting the vaccine, should they be charged a higher fee too?


Yes, you don’t want the vaccine? (notice the “want”). Then absolutely, higher insurance for you and most definetly not a priority in the ICU. Period. A choice is a choice.
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:15 pm

bpatus297 wrote:
TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:

I can sort of understand that, don't necessarily agree with it, but I can understand the logic. But specific requirements determined on a one-by-one basis is vastly different from a sweeping over reaching mandate. Why does a trash collector, truck driver, plumber, etc. need to be vaccinated? Especially since the vaccine doesn't stop the spread.


From the employer's standpoint, a lot of it has to do with employee availability and insurance premiums. Many employers cover healthcare either directly or indirectly for their employees. If you have 5 employees that end up on vents or on ECMO you are looking at a multi-million dollar hospital bill that has to be covered.

Moreover, if vaccinated employees have to be out an average of 5 days due to quarantine due to COVID, but unvaccinated employees have to be out an average of 10 days due to them being sicker than vaccinated employees, it makes sense to mandate policies that will keep your employees safe which also means they will not have to miss much work. Several people I work with have been out for over a month with COVID (one person has been out nearly a year). Those long absences all would have been avoided had those people been vaccinated.


Again, where does it stop? Are you okay with insurance companies charging different rates based on high risk activities you engage in (playing hockey, sky diving, etc.)? What about charging a higher rate if you have a pre-existing condition? Weren't we fighting to keep them from doing that before the pandemic? We are going down that road. What if the person has a medical condition that keeps them from getting the vaccine, should they be charged a higher fee too?


The difference is hospitals aren't filled to crisis capacity with hockey players. They are filled to capacity with unvaccinated COVID patients. Anything that incentivizes or forces people to get vaccinated to avoid putting this strain on the hospitals again is welcome IMO. The hospitals are absolutely strained and needlessly so.
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:28 pm

santi319 wrote:
Yes, you don’t want the vaccine? (notice the “want”). Then absolutely, higher insurance for you and most definetly not a priority in the ICU. Period. A choice is a choice.

To me it is also a matter of scarce resources. If there is demand for 11 hospital beds but only 10 available, do you withold a bed from someone who has taken steps to reduce their likelihood of needing one and allocate it to someone who has refused to take steps to reduce their likelihood of needing one?
 
santi319
Posts: 1261
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:18 pm

art wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Yes, you don’t want the vaccine? (notice the “want”). Then absolutely, higher insurance for you and most definetly not a priority in the ICU. Period. A choice is a choice.

To me it is also a matter of scarce resources. If there is demand for 11 hospital beds but only 10 available, do you withold a bed from someone who has taken steps to reduce their likelihood of needing one and allocate it to someone who has refused to take steps to reduce their likelihood of needing one?


Bingo, poor planning on someone else’s side does not constitute an emergency on my side.
 
bpatus297
Posts: 646
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:51 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:17 pm

This is a very scary look inside the psyche of some people. .
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:43 pm

bpatus297 wrote:
This is a very scary look inside the psyche of some people. .


If you want to see scary, you should look inside an ER or ICU right now...
 
stratosphere
Posts: 2071
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
Would be nice to see a two week hard lockdown in the U.S. to help the country and health care system reset and recover. The unvaccinated are filling our hospitals and ICUs. After a lockdown we need vaccine passport to help slow the spread and save lives. It is sad that we have anti science conspiracy theories stopping people from getting the vaccine. Everyone by now should be getting boosted. Have zero issues getting the safe and effective boosters and wearing a mask. Australia and New Zealand have been much better models for how to handle a pandemic.


Except that these vaccines do not keep people from catching Covid or spreading it... Omicron proves that. Everyone I know who are vaccinated except me and one other person I know have had omicron or have it now. You look at any model around the world lockdown or no lockdown eventually it will get them. All the states in the US have peaks and valleys of this virus regardless of vaccination rates or strict lockdowns. Now they are talking about a 4th booster . Come on now. This is further going to drive the unvaxed from getting vaxed. I know I am not getting any more boosters. The people like me at most risk can lock down but the rest of the world can't keep this up. Biden failed this miserably by not having enough tests available and he should have instituted an operation warp speed on both testing and therapeutics instead of putting all the marbles on pushing vaccines that only give a few weeks protection.
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:09 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
Would be nice to see a two week hard lockdown in the U.S. to help the country and health care system reset and recover. The unvaccinated are filling our hospitals and ICUs. After a lockdown we need vaccine passport to help slow the spread and save lives. It is sad that we have anti science conspiracy theories stopping people from getting the vaccine. Everyone by now should be getting boosted. Have zero issues getting the safe and effective boosters and wearing a mask. Australia and New Zealand have been much better models for how to handle a pandemic.


Except that these vaccines do not keep people from catching Covid or spreading it... Omicron proves that. Everyone I know who are vaccinated except me and one other person I know have had omicron or have it now. You look at any model around the world lockdown or no lockdown eventually it will get them. All the states in the US have peaks and valleys of this virus regardless of vaccination rates or strict lockdowns. Now they are talking about a 4th booster . Come on now. This is further going to drive the unvaxed from getting vaxed. I know I am not getting any more boosters. The people like me at most risk can lock down but the rest of the world can't keep this up. Biden failed this miserably by not having enough tests available and he should have instituted an operation warp speed on both testing and therapeutics instead of putting all the marbles on pushing vaccines that only give a few weeks protection.


Vaccines give incredible protection against hospitalization and/or death from COVID. That is the most important thing. If a million people catch COVID but those million people all are good to go after a few days and don't end up destroying hospitals, then COVID will no longer be a large scale threat to our society the way it is now. The only way for that to happen is through vaccination.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm

TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:
This is a very scary look inside the psyche of some people. .


If you want to see scary, you should look inside an ER or ICU right now...

The ERs are very scary. The few ER doctors I know say all are proactively managing to never admit Omicron patients or the wards would overflow.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/im-er-d ... 42080.html
Bottom line, people should not expect a bed if they get sick.
...
A word to the vaccinated. First, as a doctor who is seeing patients with COVID in the Emergency Department daily, I want to say thank you. Getting vaccinated and boosted appropriately is making a huge difference for you, your community and the country. It's clear that vaccination prevents hospitalization and deaths and things would be much worse without this intervention. However, vaccination is not a force field nor is it absolute protection from symptomatic disease.


Since we aren't at the peak and I already posted a link to 119k hospital beds are filled with Covid19 patients, the ERs are already doing heavy triage. Every doctor I personally know who works coronavirus has dozens and dozens of stories of patients begging for vaccines. It is almost as if people don't know how painful coronavirus is. Even Omicron as it attacks nerves.

Meh, young and unvaccinated are being sent home with oxygen and some pills and told to buy online Tylenol (it won't be enough). Good luck to everyone. I'll worry about those that did the right thing.

Honestly, I'm seeing doctors giving vaccinated patients the benefit of the doubt. By this, if two patients would benefit, but do not need, some care where they are short on staff, the vaccinated patient has priority as they'll take up the labor for fewer days allowing more people the benefit of added care. Not discrimination, but in triage you don't have enough resources, so you help the most you can and that is helping the vaccinated.

Obviously if someone needs care, they get it and unvacs are far more likely to need care. I'm betting in two weeks the triage gets brutal.

Lightsaber
 
Newark727
Posts: 2866
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:12 pm

TriJets wrote:
If you want to see scary, you should look inside an ER or ICU right now...


I have nothing but respect for the doctors, nurses, and techs who are dealing with this head on right now. Stay strong.
 
bpatus297
Posts: 646
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:51 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:17 pm

Newark727 wrote:
TriJets wrote:
If you want to see scary, you should look inside an ER or ICU right now...


I have nothing but respect for the doctors, nurses, and techs who are dealing with this head on right now. Stay strong.


I absolutely respect the healthcare workers dealing with this too. That has nothing to do with how people are showing that they are proponents of treating a subset of humans different based on a classification.
 
TokyoImperialPa
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun May 23, 2021 1:50 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:44 pm

News
A new variant in France can also evade vaccines and seems to originate in Cameroon. A preprint was published at the end of December, but it seems to have picked up steam in mainstream media recently:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268174v1
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/0 ... -in-france

It has more spike mutations than Omicron, but it has not picked up speed despite the fact that it was discovered at the same time as Omicron - though I wonder if this is simply because Omicron was discovered later into the epidemic whereas this new one was discovered earlier. Euronews also published some disputes about the actual caseload involved.

And in some news about lockdowns over Omicron:

After a US military base in the southernmost island of Japan (really far south and far from mainland Japan) had a massive and serious cluster, this spilled out into the general public and now there will be quasi-lockdowns in Okinawa.

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3162428 ... tary-bases

That would mean that much of Europe and East Asia is starting to impose restrictions and lockdowns over Omicron.

Comments
I just wanted to clear up some points I made earlier (and none of this concerns Omicron and the new Cameroon variant which affects unvaccinated people anyway):

The Delta variant (which is what a fully vaccinated person is protected against) will only affect a small percentage of the unvaccinated population, so if 20% of the population is unvaccinated, then probably only a small percenage of that should need to go into hospital. A healthcare system should be able to deal with such small surges (if they happen). The entire 20% will NOT be hospitalized, only a fraction of that 20% and then a small (if smaller) number of vaccinated as well.

A healthcare system should not force people to take vaccines if they feel uncomfortable about it, especially if it is based on health reasons such as unfamiliarlity with their own health issues. And there will always be a percentage who cannot be vaccinated (5% to 10%), and a small percentage who are unsure about whether it is positive for them to be vaccinated for various health concerns (another 5% to 10%, but it will be higher for a vaccine that has not gone through the normal long term side effects safety process - it is safe for the majority but more risky for a minority). What unvaccinated percentage would people here be happy with?

And the probability of side effects for medications will rise the more you take them.

And also, many of the big surges and lockdowns happening now involve highly vaccinated areas and the Omicron variant. Blaming unvaccinated people means the vast majority should be locked-down (Singapore has already changed the definition of "fully vaccinated" to three shots) - and I also doubt that people are willing to have a booster shot every few months (the average is currently less than six months actually).

And finally it will NOT be feasible to vaccinate the world with even one shot, let alone three, and all these variants came from the developing world.
If your country has reached 80% vaccinated, then it is time to focus on treatments and reforming hospitals by making the coronavirus the "new normal". You don't just blame the unvaccinated when the flu comes around every year, you make a major effort to prepare the health service to deal with the flu. A similar effort is needed for the healthcare system.

And to focus on something about vaccinations, we are already in the realms where being "fully vaccinated" does not mean you are protected - so should everyone now be lockdown unless they have three shots (Singapore's definition) or even four shots (as Israel and the UK are doing)?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-rcna5907
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/10/30 ... the-vacci/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4670229

Europe is seeing the majority of hospital patients having been vaccinated with vaccination rates being at around 80%. And it's also the European hospitals that are in crisis mode due to Omicron. Blaming the unvaccinated is just blaming the minority when the problem is elsewhere.

This IS a case where mainstream (and left wing) media is adding fuel to the fire, and where Fauci and the CDC are incompetent. Blaming someone else (and especially Trump) does not solve the problems causing the pandemic.
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:50 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
News
A new variant in France can also evade vaccines and seems to originate in Cameroon. A preprint was published at the end of December, but it seems to have picked up steam in mainstream media recently:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268174v1
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/0 ... -in-france

It has more spike mutations than Omicron, but it has not picked up speed despite the fact that it was discovered at the same time as Omicron - though I wonder if this is simply because Omicron was discovered later into the epidemic whereas this new one was discovered earlier. Euronews also published some disputes about the actual caseload involved.

And in some news about lockdowns over Omicron:

After a US military base in the southernmost island of Japan (really far south and far from mainland Japan) had a massive and serious cluster, this spilled out into the general public and now there will be quasi-lockdowns in Okinawa.

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3162428 ... tary-bases

That would mean that much of Europe and East Asia is starting to impose restrictions and lockdowns over Omicron.

Comments
I just wanted to clear up some points I made earlier (and none of this concerns Omicron and the new Cameroon variant which affects unvaccinated people anyway):

The Delta variant (which is what a fully vaccinated person is protected against) will only affect a small percentage of the unvaccinated population, so if 20% of the population is unvaccinated, then probably only a small percenage of that should need to go into hospital. A healthcare system should be able to deal with such small surges (if they happen). The entire 20% will NOT be hospitalized, only a fraction of that 20% and then a small (if smaller) number of vaccinated as well.
A healthcare system should not force people to take vaccines if they feel uncomfortable about it, especially if it is based on health reasons such as unfamiliarlity with their own health issues. And there will always be a percentage who cannot be vaccinated (5% to 10%), and a small percentage who are unsure about whether it is positive for them to be vaccinated for various health concerns (another 5% to 10%, but it will be higher for a vaccine that has not gone through the normal long term side effects safety process - it is safe for the majority but more risky for a minority). What unvaccinated percentage would people here be happy with?

And the probability of side effects for medications will rise the more you take them.

And also, many of the big surges and lockdowns happening now involve highly vaccinated areas and the Omicron variant. Blaming unvaccinated people means the vast majority should be locked-down (Singapore has already changed the definition of "fully vaccinated" to three shots) - and I also doubt that people are willing to have a booster shot every few months (the average is currently less than six months actually).

And finally it will NOT be feasible to vaccinate the world with even one shot, let alone three, and all these variants came from the developing world.
If your country has reached 80% vaccinated, then it is time to focus on treatments and reforming hospitals by making the coronavirus the "new normal". You don't just blame the unvaccinated when the flu comes around every year, you make a major effort to prepare the health service to deal with the flu. A similar effort is needed for the healthcare system.

And to focus on something about vaccinations, we are already in the realms where being "fully vaccinated" does not mean you are protected - so should everyone now be lockdown unless they have three shots (Singapore's definition) or even four shots (as Israel and the UK are doing)?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-rcna5907
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/10/30 ... the-vacci/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4670229

Europe is seeing the majority of hospital patients having been vaccinated with vaccination rates being at around 80%. And it's also the European hospitals that are in crisis mode due to Omicron. Blaming the unvaccinated is just blaming the minority when the problem is elsewhere.


I live and work in one of the 10 most populous states in the United States, and nearly every patient on a ventilator or in the ICU with COVID is unvaccinated. Without these people tying up resources, the hospitals would be in fine shape right now.
 
bpatus297
Posts: 646
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:51 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:53 pm

TriJets wrote:
TokyoImperialPa wrote:
News
A new variant in France can also evade vaccines and seems to originate in Cameroon. A preprint was published at the end of December, but it seems to have picked up steam in mainstream media recently:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268174v1
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/0 ... -in-france

It has more spike mutations than Omicron, but it has not picked up speed despite the fact that it was discovered at the same time as Omicron - though I wonder if this is simply because Omicron was discovered later into the epidemic whereas this new one was discovered earlier. Euronews also published some disputes about the actual caseload involved.

And in some news about lockdowns over Omicron:

After a US military base in the southernmost island of Japan (really far south and far from mainland Japan) had a massive and serious cluster, this spilled out into the general public and now there will be quasi-lockdowns in Okinawa.

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3162428 ... tary-bases

That would mean that much of Europe and East Asia is starting to impose restrictions and lockdowns over Omicron.

Comments
I just wanted to clear up some points I made earlier (and none of this concerns Omicron and the new Cameroon variant which affects unvaccinated people anyway):

The Delta variant (which is what a fully vaccinated person is protected against) will only affect a small percentage of the unvaccinated population, so if 20% of the population is unvaccinated, then probably only a small percenage of that should need to go into hospital. A healthcare system should be able to deal with such small surges (if they happen). The entire 20% will NOT be hospitalized, only a fraction of that 20% and then a small (if smaller) number of vaccinated as well.
A healthcare system should not force people to take vaccines if they feel uncomfortable about it, especially if it is based on health reasons such as unfamiliarlity with their own health issues. And there will always be a percentage who cannot be vaccinated (5% to 10%), and a small percentage who are unsure about whether it is positive for them to be vaccinated for various health concerns (another 5% to 10%, but it will be higher for a vaccine that has not gone through the normal long term side effects safety process - it is safe for the majority but more risky for a minority). What unvaccinated percentage would people here be happy with?

And the probability of side effects for medications will rise the more you take them.

And also, many of the big surges and lockdowns happening now involve highly vaccinated areas and the Omicron variant. Blaming unvaccinated people means the vast majority should be locked-down (Singapore has already changed the definition of "fully vaccinated" to three shots) - and I also doubt that people are willing to have a booster shot every few months (the average is currently less than six months actually).

And finally it will NOT be feasible to vaccinate the world with even one shot, let alone three, and all these variants came from the developing world.
If your country has reached 80% vaccinated, then it is time to focus on treatments and reforming hospitals by making the coronavirus the "new normal". You don't just blame the unvaccinated when the flu comes around every year, you make a major effort to prepare the health service to deal with the flu. A similar effort is needed for the healthcare system.

And to focus on something about vaccinations, we are already in the realms where being "fully vaccinated" does not mean you are protected - so should everyone now be lockdown unless they have three shots (Singapore's definition) or even four shots (as Israel and the UK are doing)?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-rcna5907
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/10/30 ... the-vacci/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4670229

Europe is seeing the majority of hospital patients having been vaccinated with vaccination rates being at around 80%. And it's also the European hospitals that are in crisis mode due to Omicron. Blaming the unvaccinated is just blaming the minority when the problem is elsewhere.


I live and work in one of the 10 most populous states in the United States, and nearly every patient on a ventilator or in the ICU with COVID is unvaccinated. Without these people tying up resources, the hospitals would be in fine shape right now.


I'm not arguing that fact, but where are the numbers to back it up? I haven't really seen the numbers, just people saying its so.
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
TriJets wrote:
bpatus297 wrote:
This is a very scary look inside the psyche of some people. .


If you want to see scary, you should look inside an ER or ICU right now...

The ERs are very scary. The few ER doctors I know say all are proactively managing to never admit Omicron patients or the wards would overflow.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/im-er-d ... 42080.html
Bottom line, people should not expect a bed if they get sick.
...
A word to the vaccinated. First, as a doctor who is seeing patients with COVID in the Emergency Department daily, I want to say thank you. Getting vaccinated and boosted appropriately is making a huge difference for you, your community and the country. It's clear that vaccination prevents hospitalization and deaths and things would be much worse without this intervention. However, vaccination is not a force field nor is it absolute protection from symptomatic disease.


Since we aren't at the peak and I already posted a link to 119k hospital beds are filled with Covid19 patients, the ERs are already doing heavy triage. Every doctor I personally know who works coronavirus has dozens and dozens of stories of patients begging for vaccines. It is almost as if people don't know how painful coronavirus is. Even Omicron as it attacks nerves.

Meh, young and unvaccinated are being sent home with oxygen and some pills and told to buy online Tylenol (it won't be enough). Good luck to everyone. I'll worry about those that did the right thing.

Honestly, I'm seeing doctors giving vaccinated patients the benefit of the doubt. By this, if two patients would benefit, but do not need, some care where they are short on staff, the vaccinated patient has priority as they'll take up the labor for fewer days allowing more people the benefit of added care. Not discrimination, but in triage you don't have enough resources, so you help the most you can and that is helping the vaccinated.

Obviously if someone needs care, they get it and unvacs are far more likely to need care. I'm betting in two weeks the triage gets brutal.

Lightsaber


It is brutal already. People who need to be in the ICU are stuck in the trauma bays in the ER since there are no available ICU beds. People who need to be in the trauma bays are in normal ER rooms because the trauma bays are full of people waiting for the ICU. People who need a room in the ER are in the hallways or in the waiting room because the ER beds are full.

I had a critical patient this week who ended up in the hallway because she was COVID negative. The rooms that had just opened up had to be cleaned and had to sit for 3 hours since they housed COVID patients. Those rooms were also reserved for more COVID patients as they are nearly all on oxygen therapy and they don't like doing that in the hallways because they don't have access to the hospital's main oxygen system there. So, if you are critically ill but don't have COVID...good luck.
 
TriJets
Posts: 236
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:13 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:59 pm

bpatus297 wrote:
TriJets wrote:
TokyoImperialPa wrote:
News
A new variant in France can also evade vaccines and seems to originate in Cameroon. A preprint was published at the end of December, but it seems to have picked up steam in mainstream media recently:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268174v1
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/0 ... -in-france

It has more spike mutations than Omicron, but it has not picked up speed despite the fact that it was discovered at the same time as Omicron - though I wonder if this is simply because Omicron was discovered later into the epidemic whereas this new one was discovered earlier. Euronews also published some disputes about the actual caseload involved.

And in some news about lockdowns over Omicron:

After a US military base in the southernmost island of Japan (really far south and far from mainland Japan) had a massive and serious cluster, this spilled out into the general public and now there will be quasi-lockdowns in Okinawa.

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3162428 ... tary-bases

That would mean that much of Europe and East Asia is starting to impose restrictions and lockdowns over Omicron.

Comments
I just wanted to clear up some points I made earlier (and none of this concerns Omicron and the new Cameroon variant which affects unvaccinated people anyway):

The Delta variant (which is what a fully vaccinated person is protected against) will only affect a small percentage of the unvaccinated population, so if 20% of the population is unvaccinated, then probably only a small percenage of that should need to go into hospital. A healthcare system should be able to deal with such small surges (if they happen). The entire 20% will NOT be hospitalized, only a fraction of that 20% and then a small (if smaller) number of vaccinated as well.
A healthcare system should not force people to take vaccines if they feel uncomfortable about it, especially if it is based on health reasons such as unfamiliarlity with their own health issues. And there will always be a percentage who cannot be vaccinated (5% to 10%), and a small percentage who are unsure about whether it is positive for them to be vaccinated for various health concerns (another 5% to 10%, but it will be higher for a vaccine that has not gone through the normal long term side effects safety process - it is safe for the majority but more risky for a minority). What unvaccinated percentage would people here be happy with?

And the probability of side effects for medications will rise the more you take them.

And also, many of the big surges and lockdowns happening now involve highly vaccinated areas and the Omicron variant. Blaming unvaccinated people means the vast majority should be locked-down (Singapore has already changed the definition of "fully vaccinated" to three shots) - and I also doubt that people are willing to have a booster shot every few months (the average is currently less than six months actually).

And finally it will NOT be feasible to vaccinate the world with even one shot, let alone three, and all these variants came from the developing world.
If your country has reached 80% vaccinated, then it is time to focus on treatments and reforming hospitals by making the coronavirus the "new normal". You don't just blame the unvaccinated when the flu comes around every year, you make a major effort to prepare the health service to deal with the flu. A similar effort is needed for the healthcare system.

And to focus on something about vaccinations, we are already in the realms where being "fully vaccinated" does not mean you are protected - so should everyone now be lockdown unless they have three shots (Singapore's definition) or even four shots (as Israel and the UK are doing)?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-rcna5907
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/10/30 ... the-vacci/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4670229

Europe is seeing the majority of hospital patients having been vaccinated with vaccination rates being at around 80%. And it's also the European hospitals that are in crisis mode due to Omicron. Blaming the unvaccinated is just blaming the minority when the problem is elsewhere.


I live and work in one of the 10 most populous states in the United States, and nearly every patient on a ventilator or in the ICU with COVID is unvaccinated. Without these people tying up resources, the hospitals would be in fine shape right now.


I'm not arguing that fact, but where are the numbers to back it up? I haven't really seen the numbers, just people saying its so.


Check the WRAL article another poster linked to earlier in this thread. Like many major hospitals, my hospital is very active on social media giving a breakdown on COVID hospitalizations and ICU patients by vaccination status. Unfortunately I can not share the same on here without identifying my employer.
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:02 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Except that these vaccines do not keep people from catching Covid or spreading it... Omicron proves that.

I take the view that this disease is here to stay. It follows that a modus vivendi is needed.

Reducing contact between people lowers transmission but is not very practical - it is socially and economically damaging. Vaccination is an easy way to reduce the intensity of disease in those infected.

I am coming to the opinion that the only way the world will be able to come to terms with this disease and get back to 'normal' will be when almost everyone has been infected or vaccinated. I feel sorry for the people around the world who have not had the opportunity to be vaccinated and who catch COVID-19 and become seriously ill. I have no sympathy with people who have had the opportunity to be vaccinated, have spurned that opportunity, catch COVID-19 and become seriously ill. I see them as a burden on the rest of society, reducing the quality of everyone's lives by avoidably placing demands on the health systems of the world.
 
TokyoImperialPa
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun May 23, 2021 1:50 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:07 pm

And everyone forgets that we are vaccinating the developed world but all the deadly anti-immunity variants have developed in the developing world, which I mentioned in my post above.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 15183
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Stunning numbers from NC
The joint news conference comes alongside another day of record new cases of the virus in North Carolina. On Thursday, a record 24,292 new cases were reported, with 30.1% of tests returning positive over the past 24 hours.

As cases soar, local emergency departments are strained, and the number of people hospitalized for COVID -19 rose to 3,293 on Thursday, an increase of almost 200 from the day before.



At all WakeMed hospitals, only 1 in 10 ICU patients are fully vaccinated, and at Duke, all the patients on ECMO, a form of life support used for only the sickest patients, are unvaccinated.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/nc-hos ... /20065686/

30.1% positive means only determined people can get tested.

Nasal swab testing doesn't catch Omicron for a few days:
https://news.yahoo.com/nasal-swab-tests ... 27921.html
According to a new real-world study, it may take an average of three days for people to test positive on a nasal-based lateral flow test (LFT) after their first positive PCR result.


My relative working the coronavirus ward is finding they have a 25% false negative rate with Omicron. The ER is now doing a test and if negative, holding the patient for a few hours and doing another test. They did a little experiment on sick doctors who volunteered and found out that if a person takes 8 nasal swab tests, 6 will be positive and 2 negative...

This will get interesting fast.
Lightsaber



A lot of people in Raleigh are using at home tests. It takes 2-3 days just to get tested. As you said. 30.1 % means you are determined.

You can see all the scary numbers for NC here. Not just for Raleigh.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/north- ... /19010016/

What is interesting in that graph is towards the bottom. The death rates are very high in rural zip codes.
 
TokyoImperialPa
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun May 23, 2021 1:50 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:17 pm

The situation happening in Europe and the future for the US, where hospitals are reporting that most patients are vaccinated and the Omicron variant is causing the main problem, shows that the unvaccinated are not to blame for the continued pandemic. These variants came from the developing world and will always come from there.
 
M564038
Posts: 1048
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:30 pm

So this is partly anecdotal, and partly based on numbers from our national health authority.

We have not had deaths among healthy vaccinated people <65 at all. At all. (Sourche:FHI) My hospital doctor and nurse friends says pretty much everyone hospitalized and especially intensive care is either unvaxed, very old and frail or younger people with «extreme» pre-conditions.

They have nothing but contempt for the un-vaxed, they want to get back to a more normal life. They are done self-sacrificing both at (over-)work and after work(society more or less closed down) because of these unvaxed clowns.

I see people repeating that vaccinated people also can both get sick and transmit the virus .

As always, people have a problem conprehending numbers and orders of magnitude. Both illness and transmission is reduced so much by vaccines, that if everyone that could, actually would do their shots. And that is about 99,5% (source FHI), we would have been likely done with this.

As for developing countries, vaccinations are gathering unprecedented speed all over the world. Several south-american countries are now at the top of the statistics of vaccination in the population for instance. Vaccine production is moving fast.

New variants happens all the time. There are tens, or hundreds, or thousands or millions of them depending of your magnification.
Few of them are inportant enough to take note.
Delta and omicron are the latest big ones. The french variety mentioned in the media over the last few days, is probably just one of many, many, many being tracked by WHO and others, that just aren’t on that level but somehow managed to break through the media noise.

What most virologists sat however, is that the likelyhood of some super-lethal and super-spreader variety decreases over time, as changes in the virus takes it longer from the criteria that made it succesfull to begin with.
 
77Phoebe
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:20 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
77Phoebe wrote:
I would like to see some member of a health service, somewhere, come up with the number of deaths that lockdown causes, two years on I simply don't believe they do any good at all.

Sorry, I'm wrong, they do do good, they benefit politicians, sparing them bad headlines. Covid deaths are measurable the deaths caused by lockdowns re: suicides, child abuse, drug and alcohol deaths, missed heart disease and cancer diagnosis, ongoing child development issues not so much.

I believe none of these measures (bar the vaccines - and they aren't that good.) have done any good whatsoever, apart from moving deaths from the ancient, unhealthy and chronically sick to the younger members of society.



Here is your 2019 leading causes of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 09-508.pdf

You can then cross compare with the below for 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm

The below site has a neat breakdown of 2015-2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2778234

Image


2021 is still preliminary, but you can start here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/125 ... ber-daily/

I think you will find that Covid was and still is the most preventable cause of death that we can control in that list.


Unfortunately the tallies are not divided up into meaningful cross sections. The VAST VAST number of fatalities from Covid-19 are the one way or another are the nearly dead. The collateral damage for the 'Covid-19 measures' will affect the young disproportionately.. And they will be the poor sods paying for it.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 15183
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:46 pm

77Phoebe wrote:
casinterest wrote:
77Phoebe wrote:
I would like to see some member of a health service, somewhere, come up with the number of deaths that lockdown causes, two years on I simply don't believe they do any good at all.

Sorry, I'm wrong, they do do good, they benefit politicians, sparing them bad headlines. Covid deaths are measurable the deaths caused by lockdowns re: suicides, child abuse, drug and alcohol deaths, missed heart disease and cancer diagnosis, ongoing child development issues not so much.

I believe none of these measures (bar the vaccines - and they aren't that good.) have done any good whatsoever, apart from moving deaths from the ancient, unhealthy and chronically sick to the younger members of society.



Here is your 2019 leading causes of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 09-508.pdf

You can then cross compare with the below for 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm

The below site has a neat breakdown of 2015-2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2778234

Image


2021 is still preliminary, but you can start here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/125 ... ber-daily/

I think you will find that Covid was and still is the most preventable cause of death that we can control in that list.


Unfortunately the tallies are not divided up into meaningful cross sections. The VAST VAST number of fatalities from Covid-19 are the one way or another are the nearly dead. The collateral damage for the 'Covid-19 measures' will affect the young disproportionately.. And they will be the poor sods paying for it.


You asked about deaths, and they are there.
Families that offer support to kids will help them out. Teachers will help them out in schools. This whole 'Covid-19 measurements' stick is disingenuous and wrong. How about all the kids that lost their parents and grandparents due to the fact that they couldn't or didn't get a vaccine?
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4354
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:54 pm

M564038 wrote:

As always, people have a problem conprehending numbers and orders of magnitude. Both illness and transmission is reduced so much by vaccines, that if everyone that could, actually would do their shots. And that is about 99,5% (source FHI), we would have been likely done with this.



Illness is reduced yes. How I am not sure that the vaccines have any meaningful effect on transmission especially with Omicron.

Where I live 80% of the cases are among fully vaccinated people and there is has been a vaccine passport for the last 3 months. About 80-85% of the entire population has had 2 shots and hospitalizations are high enough to close down all non-essential business that the vaccine passport is required.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:12 pm

TokyoImeperialPa wrote:
The situation happening in Europe and the future for the US, where hospitals are reporting that most patients are vaccinated and the Omicron variant is causing the main problem, shows that the unvaccinated are not to blame for the continued pandemic. These variants came from the developing world and will always come from there.

Most of the patients are unvaccinated. 1st link 89% unvacs in Western Colorado

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

90% in Ohio:
https://www.wkbn.com/news/coronavirus/o ... id-19/amp/

The unvaccinated have been selfish and think memes mean more than data. Read the first link. Notice vaccinated are admitted in fractionally higher numbers than those in the hospital; that means they have short stays.

We need to add triage points to unvacs. That is only fair. We need to take resources from coronavirus and put it back to the worthy who need elective operations like removing cancer, heart stints, Colonoscopies, or sports injuries.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23890
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:28 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
M564038 wrote:

As always, people have a problem conprehending numbers and orders of magnitude. Both illness and transmission is reduced so much by vaccines, that if everyone that could, actually would do their shots. And that is about 99,5% (source FHI), we would have been likely done with this.



Illness is reduced yes. How I am not sure that the vaccines have any meaningful effect on transmission especially with Omicron.

Where I live 80% of the cases are among fully vaccinated people and there is has been a vaccine passport for the last 3 months. About 80-85% of the entire population has had 2 shots and hospitalizations are high enough to close down all non-essential business that the vaccine passport is required.

Link please. Whenever I pull up data, they find even a small fraction of unvaccinated are the majority of patients in the hospitals. I just supplied data data showing about 90% are unvaccinated.

more:
Illinois hospitals overwhelmed by unvacvinated:
https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/01/03 ... cials-say/

4 out of 5 in UK unvaccinated:
https://www.the-sun.com/health/4375727/ ... oster/amp/


Going from memory, unvacs are 30x more likely to be hospitalized. So until we pass 96% vaccinated, the unvacs will dominate the hospitals.

Please supply a link as you claim counter to every Covid19 doctor I have talked with and every link I've read, in particular peer reviewed sources.

Lightsaber
 
art
Posts: 4641
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:30 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
The situation happening in Europe and the future for the US, where hospitals are reporting that most patients are vaccinated and the Omicron variant is causing the main problem...

What is the source of this info?
 
santi319
Posts: 1261
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:43 pm

art wrote:
TokyoImperialPa wrote:
The situation happening in Europe and the future for the US, where hospitals are reporting that most patients are vaccinated and the Omicron variant is causing the main problem...

What is the source of this info?

There is absolutely nothing online on this? Can you post a link?
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4354
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:53 pm

lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
M564038 wrote:

As always, people have a problem conprehending numbers and orders of magnitude. Both illness and transmission is reduced so much by vaccines, that if everyone that could, actually would do their shots. And that is about 99,5% (source FHI), we would have been likely done with this.



Illness is reduced yes. How I am not sure that the vaccines have any meaningful effect on transmission especially with Omicron.

Where I live 80% of the cases are among fully vaccinated people and there is has been a vaccine passport for the last 3 months. About 80-85% of the entire population has had 2 shots and hospitalizations are high enough to close down all non-essential business that the vaccine passport is required.

Link please. Whenever I pull up data, they find even a small fraction of unvaccinated are the majority of patients in the hospitals. I just supplied data data showing about 90% are unvaccinated.

more:
Illinois hospitals overwhelmed by unvacvinated:
https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/01/03 ... cials-say/

4 out of 5 in UK unvaccinated:
https://www.the-sun.com/health/4375727/ ... oster/amp/


Going from memory, unvacs are 30x more likely to be hospitalized. So until we pass 96% vaccinated, the unvacs will dominate the hospitals.

Please supply a link as you claim counter to every Covid19 doctor I have talked with and every link I've read, in particular peer reviewed sources.

Lightsaber


I'm talking about straight up cases but here is today's Ontario report which does show our figures for hospitalization also.

Total daily cases 11,899 with 9,515 of the cases being in fully vaccinated individuals. That is 80% of the total double vaxxed.

Total hospitalized 1327 fully vaccinated of 2472 which is 53%. The other 47% are partially or not vaccinated. I do know a few ER nurses and their claims are that a lot of fully vaccinated people are going to the hospital because they have covid and the hospital won't turn them away like the would in previous years with the flu or a bad cold.

The provincial government has said it is not likely that many of these patients will be in hospital for a long period of time where ICU admissions can be for weeks.

ICU numbers are 338 with 232 not being fully vaccinated that is 68% of the total. The other 32% are fully vaccinated but from reports they do have significant health problems.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-break ... -1.5731334

While the trend is the same there are not where as skewed as the data you are presenting for regions in the US.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 15183
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:03 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

Illness is reduced yes. How I am not sure that the vaccines have any meaningful effect on transmission especially with Omicron.

Where I live 80% of the cases are among fully vaccinated people and there is has been a vaccine passport for the last 3 months. About 80-85% of the entire population has had 2 shots and hospitalizations are high enough to close down all non-essential business that the vaccine passport is required.

Link please. Whenever I pull up data, they find even a small fraction of unvaccinated are the majority of patients in the hospitals. I just supplied data data showing about 90% are unvaccinated.

more:
Illinois hospitals overwhelmed by unvacvinated:
https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/01/03 ... cials-say/

4 out of 5 in UK unvaccinated:
https://www.the-sun.com/health/4375727/ ... oster/amp/


Going from memory, unvacs are 30x more likely to be hospitalized. So until we pass 96% vaccinated, the unvacs will dominate the hospitals.

Please supply a link as you claim counter to every Covid19 doctor I have talked with and every link I've read, in particular peer reviewed sources.

Lightsaber


I'm talking about straight up cases but here is today's Ontario report which does show our figures for hospitalization also.

Total daily cases 11,899 with 9,515 of the cases being in fully vaccinated individuals. That is 80% of the total double vaxxed.

Total hospitalized 1327 fully vaccinated of 2472 which is 53%. The other 47% are partially or not vaccinated. I do know a few ER nurses and their claims are that a lot of fully vaccinated people are going to the hospital because they have covid and the hospital won't turn them away like the would in previous years with the flu or a bad cold.

The provincial government has said it is not likely that many of these patients will be in hospital for a long period of time where ICU admissions can be for weeks.

ICU numbers are 338 with 232 not being fully vaccinated that is 68% of the total. The other 32% are fully vaccinated but from reports they do have significant health problems.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-break ... -1.5731334

While the trend is the same there are not where as skewed as the data you are presenting for regions in the US.


Yes, but what is the vaccination rate in that area? As I recall Ontario is leaps above most of the US

From the article: ''So far, 87 per cent of Ontarians five years and older have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, 81 per cent have received two doses and 31 per cent have received three doses.

The numbers will skew towards vaccinated, when most are vaccinated:). If 100% were vaccinated, then 100% of patients would be vaccinated. The fact that the numbers in the ICU still trend so strong towards the unvaccinated , even with that vaccination rate, shows how effective vaccines are.
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