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art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:17 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
I'm talking about straight up cases but here is today's Ontario report which does show our figures for hospitalization also.

Total daily cases 11,899 with 9,515 of the cases being in fully vaccinated individuals. That is 80% of the total double vaxxed.

Total hospitalized 1327 fully vaccinated of 2472 which is 53%. The other 47% are partially or not vaccinated. I do know a few ER nurses and their claims are that a lot of fully vaccinated people are going to the hospital because they have covid and the hospital won't turn them away like the would in previous years with the flu or a bad cold.

I posted figures a few days ago about the number of people in hospital in England with COVID-19. Of the roughly 14K at that time less than 6K were being treated for their COVID-19 infection. Put another way, less than half the people in hospital with COVID-19 were there because they had COVID-19.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:53 pm

NO Confusion here from the authorities and professionals to the public:

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Md. (7News) — Three days after rolling out a new color-coded COVID-positivity model, Montgomery County Public Schools said it is eliminating the concept, effective immediately.

In a Friday afternoon letter to its entire school community, MCPS explained it wants to closer align with other large school systems across the country when it comes to keeping schools safe during the Omicron chapter of COVID. MCPS also noted that it reached this decision after the state of Maryland provided "clarifications" on the "appropriate use of thresholds for transitioning to virtual learning."

"The state of Maryland does not currently recommend any automatic trigger or threshold for the suspension of in-person learning," MCPS' letter said in part. "Therefore, MCPS will no longer use a threshold of 5% or more of unrelated students and staff in a school who test positive in a 14-day period to consider a transition to virtual learning."

https://wjla.com/news/local/montgomery- ... stops-days
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:55 pm

art wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I'm talking about straight up cases but here is today's Ontario report which does show our figures for hospitalization also.

Total daily cases 11,899 with 9,515 of the cases being in fully vaccinated individuals. That is 80% of the total double vaxxed.

Total hospitalized 1327 fully vaccinated of 2472 which is 53%. The other 47% are partially or not vaccinated. I do know a few ER nurses and their claims are that a lot of fully vaccinated people are going to the hospital because they have covid and the hospital won't turn them away like the would in previous years with the flu or a bad cold.

I posted figures a few days ago about the number of people in hospital in England with COVID-19. Of the roughly 14K at that time less than 6K were being treated for their COVID-19 infection. Put another way, less than half the people in hospital with COVID-19 were there because they had COVID-19.


I have to find the news article from Canada but the numbers are similar also, about half the patients are going in with Covid and not for Covid

Another issue is the volumes of hospital staff in isolation due to exposure stressing the capacity.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:08 am

StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
I'm talking about straight up cases but here is today's Ontario report which does show our figures for hospitalization also.

Total daily cases 11,899 with 9,515 of the cases being in fully vaccinated individuals. That is 80% of the total double vaxxed.

Total hospitalized 1327 fully vaccinated of 2472 which is 53%. The other 47% are partially or not vaccinated. I do know a few ER nurses and their claims are that a lot of fully vaccinated people are going to the hospital because they have covid and the hospital won't turn them away like the would in previous years with the flu or a bad cold.

I posted figures a few days ago about the number of people in hospital in England with COVID-19. Of the roughly 14K at that time less than 6K were being treated for their COVID-19 infection. Put another way, less than half the people in hospital with COVID-19 were there because they had COVID-19.


I have to find the news article from Canada but the numbers are similar also, about half the patients are going in with Covid and not for Covid

Another issue is the volumes of hospital staff in isolation due to exposure stressing the capacity.

Doesn't matter.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/

very nurse and doctor I asked said that the majority of their COVID patients were admitted because of COVID, not simply with COVID. Many have classic advanced symptoms, such as pneumonia and blood clots. Others, including some vaccinated people, are there because milder COVID symptoms exacerbated their chronic health conditions to a dangerous degree. “We have a lot of chronically ill people in the U.S., and it’s like all of those people are now coming into the hospital at the same time,” said Vineet Arora, a hospitalist in Illinois. “Some of it is for COVID, and some is with COVID, but it’s all COVID. At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter.” (COVID patients also need to be isolated, which increases the burden on hospitals regardless of the severity of patients’ symptoms.)


A patient with covid requires a lot more care. They must be isolated. They require higher staffing, more protocols. One must ensure any cancer, kidney, heart, non-Covid ICU, or pregnant case has no chance of being infected.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:29 am

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
News
A new variant in France can also evade vaccines and seems to originate in Cameroon. A preprint was published at the end of December, but it seems to have picked up steam in mainstream media recently:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268174v1
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/0 ... -in-france

It has more spike mutations than Omicron, but it has not picked up speed despite the fact that it was discovered at the same time as Omicron - though I wonder if this is simply because Omicron was discovered later into the epidemic whereas this new one was discovered earlier. Euronews also published some disputes about the actual caseload involved.

And in some news about lockdowns over Omicron:

After a US military base in the southernmost island of Japan (really far south and far from mainland Japan) had a massive and serious cluster, this spilled out into the general public and now there will be quasi-lockdowns in Okinawa.

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3162428 ... tary-bases

That would mean that much of Europe and East Asia is starting to impose restrictions and lockdowns over Omicron.

Comments
I just wanted to clear up some points I made earlier (and none of this concerns Omicron and the new Cameroon variant which affects unvaccinated people anyway):

The Delta variant (which is what a fully vaccinated person is protected against) will only affect a small percentage of the unvaccinated population, so if 20% of the population is unvaccinated, then probably only a small percenage of that should need to go into hospital. A healthcare system should be able to deal with such small surges (if they happen). The entire 20% will NOT be hospitalized, only a fraction of that 20% and then a small (if smaller) number of vaccinated as well.

A healthcare system should not force people to take vaccines if they feel uncomfortable about it, especially if it is based on health reasons such as unfamiliarlity with their own health issues. And there will always be a percentage who cannot be vaccinated (5% to 10%), and a small percentage who are unsure about whether it is positive for them to be vaccinated for various health concerns (another 5% to 10%, but it will be higher for a vaccine that has not gone through the normal long term side effects safety process - it is safe for the majority but more risky for a minority). What unvaccinated percentage would people here be happy with?

And the probability of side effects for medications will rise the more you take them.

And also, many of the big surges and lockdowns happening now involve highly vaccinated areas and the Omicron variant. Blaming unvaccinated people means the vast majority should be locked-down (Singapore has already changed the definition of "fully vaccinated" to three shots) - and I also doubt that people are willing to have a booster shot every few months (the average is currently less than six months actually).

And finally it will NOT be feasible to vaccinate the world with even one shot, let alone three, and all these variants came from the developing world.
If your country has reached 80% vaccinated, then it is time to focus on treatments and reforming hospitals by making the coronavirus the "new normal". You don't just blame the unvaccinated when the flu comes around every year, you make a major effort to prepare the health service to deal with the flu. A similar effort is needed for the healthcare system.

And to focus on something about vaccinations, we are already in the realms where being "fully vaccinated" does not mean you are protected - so should everyone now be lockdown unless they have three shots (Singapore's definition) or even four shots (as Israel and the UK are doing)?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-rcna5907
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/10/30 ... the-vacci/
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4670229

Europe is seeing the majority of hospital patients having been vaccinated with vaccination rates being at around 80%. And it's also the European hospitals that are in crisis mode due to Omicron. Blaming the unvaccinated is just blaming the minority when the problem is elsewhere.

This IS a case where mainstream (and left wing) media is adding fuel to the fire, and where Fauci and the CDC are incompetent. Blaming someone else (and especially Trump) does not solve the problems causing the pandemic.

The variant have 14 mutation and 9 deletion at spike protein according to your link - compared to 32 in Omicron - how is that more?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:46 am

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... l_fulltext

Of 81 Omicron cases from Norway party cluster from 2020 November, only 5 people or 6% reported abdominal pain as a symptom
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:57 am

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2022 ... kly-enough

US FDA expressed concern on speed of nose swab test at identifying Omicron patients, as a study say nose swab test can only detect Omicron infection 3 days after they show up in saliva sample, on average
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:25 am

Australia has recorder over 116,000 cases today making it the first time it has broken 100,000 cases.

Breakdown state by state

TOTAL NEW CASES - 116,025
TOTAL NEW DEATHS - 25
VIC - 51,356 new cases, 9 deaths
NSW - 45,098 new cases, 9 deaths
QLD - 11,174 new cases, 2 deaths
SA - 4274 new cases, 5 deaths
TAS - 2223 new cases
ACT - 1305 new cases
NT - 594 new cases
WA - 1 new case


https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/corona ... -c-5229626
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:19 am

https://m.sohu.com/a/515053169_296660/?pvid=000115_3w_a
Disinfection team in China spotted using fire while conducting disinfection community
There are different explanations on why there is fire
The operator claim flame at 200°C can instantly kill the virus, and can also help boost the effect of disinfectant spraying machines.
Meanwhile, others including a local fire department in China commented, the machine is actually a disinfectant spraying or pulsing machine, and it have fire came out of it because either disinfectant dissolved in solvents like fire was having an improper mix or that the nachine's operation temperature was abnormally high
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:52 am

Other countries have had easier experiences with Omicron. But with America’s population being older than South Africa’s, and less vaccinated or boosted than the U.K.’s or Denmark’s, “it’s a mistake to think that we’ll see the same degree of decoupling between cases and hospitalizations that they did,” James Lawler, an infectious-disease physician in Nebraska, told me. “I’d have thought we’d have learned that lesson with Delta,” which sent hospitalizations through the roof in the U.S. but not in the U.K.


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/

Sort of explains why the effect of omicron is more pronounced in US.

I wonder what link there is between obesity and COVID-19 severity in infectees. I have the impression that obesity is a bigger problem in US than in Europe.
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:13 pm

FHI (our national health authority) today published some easy to understand numbers on just how much more risk non-vaccinated run than vaccinated for serious disease.
The magic number is 18 across all age groups.
You are 18 times more likely to be hospitalized if you are non-vaccinated.
They haven’t published a number for deadly outcomes, as there simply aren’t enough vaccinated people dying to give any statistically meaningful number.
Last edited by M564038 on Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:13 pm

FHI (our national health authority) today publishied some easy to understand numbers on just how much more risk non-vaccinated run than vaccinated for serious disease.
The magic number is 18 across all age groups.
You are 18 times more likely to be hospitalized if you are non-vaccinated.
They haven’t published a number for deadly outcomes, as there simply aren’t enough vaccinated people dying to give any statistically meaningful number.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:51 pm

Please include a source with fact based posts.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:04 pm

art wrote:
Other countries have had easier experiences with Omicron. But with America’s population being older than South Africa’s, and less vaccinated or boosted than the U.K.’s or Denmark’s, “it’s a mistake to think that we’ll see the same degree of decoupling between cases and hospitalizations that they did,” James Lawler, an infectious-disease physician in Nebraska, told me. “I’d have thought we’d have learned that lesson with Delta,” which sent hospitalizations through the roof in the U.S. but not in the U.K.


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/

Sort of explains why the effect of omicron is more pronounced in US.

I wonder what link there is between obesity and COVID-19 severity in infectees. I have the impression that obesity is a bigger problem in US than in Europe.


Here are the risk factors for Omicron for ending up in the hospital:
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... 45afe406de
Obesity
High Blood Pressure
Diabetes
Prediabetes
High Cholesterol


For children:
https://conscienhealth.org/2022/01/omic ... -hospital/
Link discusses children with obesity
Among adolescents in the hospital with COVID, 61 percent had obesity.

According to this, obese children are "1 in 5" or 20% of the kids, so Obesity is definitely an issue with Omicron when 3X represented:
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/childhood/# ... d%20States.


The US prevalence of Obesity and Prediabetes is definitely going to lead the charge to hospitalizations.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
Other countries have had easier experiences with Omicron. But with America’s population being older than South Africa’s, and less vaccinated or boosted than the U.K.’s or Denmark’s, “it’s a mistake to think that we’ll see the same degree of decoupling between cases and hospitalizations that they did,” James Lawler, an infectious-disease physician in Nebraska, told me. “I’d have thought we’d have learned that lesson with Delta,” which sent hospitalizations through the roof in the U.S. but not in the U.K.


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/

Sort of explains why the effect of omicron is more pronounced in US.

I wonder what link there is between obesity and COVID-19 severity in infectees. I have the impression that obesity is a bigger problem in US than in Europe.


Here are the risk factors for Omicron for ending up in the hospital:
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... 45afe406de
Obesity
High Blood Pressure
Diabetes
Prediabetes
High Cholesterol


For children:
https://conscienhealth.org/2022/01/omic ... -hospital/
Link discusses children with obesity
Among adolescents in the hospital with COVID, 61 percent had obesity.

According to this, obese children are "1 in 5" or 20% of the kids, so Obesity is definitely an issue with Omicron when 3X represented:
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/childhood/# ... d%20States.


The US prevalence of Obesity and Prediabetes is definitely going to lead the charge to hospitalizations.

Lightsaber

If there are 10000 kids, 20% obesity mean 2000 are obese
Assuming 100 of these kids are hospitalized, that would mean 61 obese and 39 non-obese hospitalized, given 61% hospitalized are obese.
In other words, hospitalization rate for obese kids would be 61/2000=3% in this situation, while for non-obese kids it is 39/8000=0.5%
So the differences would more be like 6-fold instead of 3-fold
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Here are the risk factors for Omicron for ending up in the hospital:
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... 45afe406de
Obesity
High Blood Pressure
Diabetes
Prediabetes
High Cholesterol


The US prevalence of Obesity and Prediabetes is definitely going to lead the charge to hospitalizations.

Lightsaber


42% adult obesity in USA 2017-2018
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html

28% adult obesity in England 2018
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-informa ... esity-copy

US obesity rate is 50% higher than England rate. IIRC 62% of population are fully vaccinated in US; 71% in England. I will be interested to see the proportion of the population of the respective countries needing hospital treatment for the effects of COVID-19 infection. US should be higher but how much?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:56 pm

An odd thing about diabetes is that the side effect may be largely caused by the high blood glucose levels. I keep my diabetes at true young healthy adult levels. Retinopathy reversed and disappeared. Foot neuropathy has largely disappeared. Healing after surgery is similar to young healthy people. Several of my primary care doctors have gone hysterical over this, and insisted I must not be diabetic. I am. No native insulin, at least according to tests. It is a struggle to find PPCs to support me on this, but manage to do so. I suspect that I will, with booster and all, do OK should I be infected. But not taking any chances. My opinion, if you are diabetic get those BGs down, as close to normal as you can.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:06 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Here are the risk factors for Omicron for ending up in the hospital:
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... 45afe406de
Obesity
High Blood Pressure
Diabetes
Prediabetes
High Cholesterol


The US prevalence of Obesity and Prediabetes is definitely going to lead the charge to hospitalizations.

Lightsaber


42% adult obesity in USA 2017-2018
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html

28% adult obesity in England 2018
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-informa ... esity-copy

US obesity rate is 50% higher than England rate. IIRC 62% of population are fully vaccinated in US; 71% in England. I will be interested to see the proportion of the population of the respective countries needing hospital treatment for the effects of COVID-19 infection. US should be higher but how much?



Our population is 38% at risk (1-62%) vs. 29% or .38/.29= 1.31x worse plus the obesity factor. Since c933103 correctly calculated the probability as 6x worse for children, the 50% higher obesity rate, that means we shou expect 1.5x*1.31 or 1.96 worse and then we are misbehaving more.

So I would guess 2x to 3x per capita hospital demand. Plus the UK high booster rate.

The next 3 to 6 weeks will suck in the USA



c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... rs/621193/

Sort of explains why the effect of omicron is more pronounced in US.

I wonder what link there is between obesity and COVID-19 severity in infectees. I have the impression that obesity is a bigger problem in US than in Europe.


Here are the risk factors for Omicron for ending up in the hospital:
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... 45afe406de
Obesity
High Blood Pressure
Diabetes
Prediabetes
High Cholesterol


For children:
https://conscienhealth.org/2022/01/omic ... -hospital/
Link discusses children with obesity
Among adolescents in the hospital with COVID, 61 percent had obesity.

According to this, obese children are "1 in 5" or 20% of the kids, so Obesity is definitely an issue with Omicron when 3X represented:
https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/childhood/# ... d%20States.


The US prevalence of Obesity and Prediabetes is definitely going to lead the charge to hospitalizations.

Lightsaber

If there are 10000 kids, 20% obesity mean 2000 are obese
Assuming 100 of these kids are hospitalized, that would mean 61 obese and 39 non-obese hospitalized, given 61% hospitalized are obese.
In other words, hospitalization rate for obese kids would be 61/2000=3% in this situation, while for non-obese kids it is 39/8000=0.5%
So the differences would more be like 6-fold instead of 3-fold

Yes 6 fold more risk for obese children.

Sad... very sad.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:12 pm

60% of Scottish patients admitted for virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-59912644

We had better hope the UK sees a peak soon as every other western area trails them.

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
60% of Scottish patients admitted for virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-59912644

We had better hope the UK sees a peak soon as every other western area trails them.

Lightsaber


Too early to draw any real inference but UK infections 7 day average may have peaked. The 7 day average rose every day from 1st Dec until 5th Jan before turning down 6th Jan.

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:29 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
60% of Scottish patients admitted for virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-59912644

We had better hope the UK sees a peak soon as every other western area trails them.

Lightsaber


Too early to draw any real inference but UK infections 7 day average may have peaked. The 7 day average rose every day from 1st Dec until 5th Jan before turning down 6th Jan.

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That is good news. At a 9.98% positivity rate, the UK is barely testing enough to believe the data. When South Africa declared fewer, the positivity rate peaked over 30% (posted with link upthread), that made their data questionable. In fact the current 21.69% positive implies heavy undertesting for SA.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:54 pm

96% of covid patients on oxygen in Mumbai are unvaccinated:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... NewsSearch


So the question is, do the vaccines also slow the need for hospitalizations and we'll see this number drift a little lower later, say to the US' 90% I posted links on earlier? Or rise because typically vaccinated patients have a milder hospital stay.

Cleveland clinic is reporting 91% on ventilators are unvacs:
https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/healt ... 96438715de

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:10 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/08/cyprus- ... delta.html
Cyprus report multiple people being infected by a variant that is a mix of both Delta and Omicron
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:55 am

Free lateral flow tests face the axe under plans for living with Covid which Boris Johnson will announce within weeks.

More than £6 billion of public money has been spent on mass testing using the devices.

The new system could mean free tests being provided only in high-risk settings such as care homes, hospitals and schools, and to people with symptoms. Contact tracing by NHS Test and Trace is also likely to be scaled back.

A senior Whitehall source said: “I don’t think we are in a world where we can continue to hand out free lateral flow tests to everybody for evermore. It’s likely we will move to a scenario where there is less testing but where we have a capacity to ramp it... (continues behind paywall)


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/end- ... -3bpz8lnqf

Is UK planning to mistakenly concede or is UK being realistic?
 
yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:00 pm

art wrote:
Free lateral flow tests face the axe under plans for living with Covid which Boris Johnson will announce within weeks.

More than £6 billion of public money has been spent on mass testing using the devices.

The new system could mean free tests being provided only in high-risk settings such as care homes, hospitals and schools, and to people with symptoms. Contact tracing by NHS Test and Trace is also likely to be scaled back.

A senior Whitehall source said: “I don’t think we are in a world where we can continue to hand out free lateral flow tests to everybody for evermore. It’s likely we will move to a scenario where there is less testing but where we have a capacity to ramp it... (continues behind paywall)


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/end- ... -3bpz8lnqf

Is UK planning to mistakenly concede or is UK being realistic?

It is a re-allocation of finite resources.
In a COVID-endemic world you actually do not care about asymtomatic carriers. You only need to know about those who are symtomatic and give them the right treatment (i.e. either Pfizer Covid pill or tamiflu or some other cold medicine). It is a much better use to scale back testing rather than trying to achieve a 0.1% positivity rate. Let's say each PCR test costs 20GBP, that means finding a single Covid cases costs GBP20,000. Which will be better spent elsewhere.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:56 pm

I agree up to a point. Here in France tests have been free since the start of the pandemic, but more recently with the COVID passport, you need to be vaccinated to get free tests.

If measures require people to get tested to do this and that, or it is recommended to get a test before visiting fragile relatives, but the test isn't free, there can be consequences.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:06 pm

The USA is on track to have record hospitalizations for covid... tomorrow!
Currently 130k in hospital
Prior peak 133k
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

It doesn't matter if in the hospital due to covid or with covid, that is a lot of extra labor required to isolate the main patient population from the coronavirus. e.g., a cardiac or cancer patient cannot be in those wards due to the risk of the other patients. Does anyone know the process of handling a pregnant lady with covid since this is such a danger to other pregnant ladies? Any link appreciated.

Lightsaber
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:14 pm

art wrote:
Is UK planning to mistakenly concede or is UK being realistic?


It's realism on the basis that endemicity renders widescale testing irrelevant, other than to fuel an endless stream of alarmist headlines. Monitoring the prevalence of Covid among the population and the advent of new variants can be done with much smaller scale testing.
The question is whether it's a bit soon to do it or not. I'd say probably not. Testing is not doing much to hamper the spread of Omicron.

Tests should still be available to those who need them for whatever reason, such as visiting frail or at-risk individuals.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:15 pm

Just a thought on the UK. They are starting to see cases decline. December 22nd was peak booster. That was just over 2 weeks ago. Did they just boost enough to help?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... untry=~GBR

Peak cases were an January 5th. While the cases are barely down, perhaps half boosted works.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~GBR

I'm hearing anecdotally that the schools are being hit hard. A teacher let me know 7 kids per classroom are out with Covid19, on average. Some are minor (heck, some just a +ve test), but some have the "dirty cold." I do not know any unvaccinated kids, so I do not know how they are doing (highly vaccinated area, but not fully vaccinated by any means). They just sent 100% of the kids home with a test kit they were supposed to do on Saturday.

Thanks,
Neil
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:28 pm

yonahleung wrote:
art wrote:
Free lateral flow tests face the axe under plans for living with Covid which Boris Johnson will announce within weeks.

More than £6 billion of public money has been spent on mass testing using the devices.

The new system could mean free tests being provided only in high-risk settings such as care homes, hospitals and schools, and to people with symptoms. Contact tracing by NHS Test and Trace is also likely to be scaled back.

A senior Whitehall source said: “I don’t think we are in a world where we can continue to hand out free lateral flow tests to everybody for evermore. It’s likely we will move to a scenario where there is less testing but where we have a capacity to ramp it... (continues behind paywall)


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/end- ... -3bpz8lnqf

Is UK planning to mistakenly concede or is UK being realistic?

It is a re-allocation of finite resources.
In a COVID-endemic world you actually do not care about asymtomatic carriers. You only need to know about those who are symtomatic and give them the right treatment (i.e. either Pfizer Covid pill or tamiflu or some other cold medicine). It is a much better use to scale back testing rather than trying to achieve a 0.1% positivity rate. Let's say each PCR test costs 20GBP, that means finding a single Covid cases costs GBP20,000. Which will be better spent elsewhere.


Personally I think the vast expenditure on COVID-19 tests, compensation for people not working, constant re-organisation in view of perceived levels of threat changing etc is no longer money well spent.

Here in the UK medics in the know guess that a half to two thirds of infections are not detected. With positive tests running at 150,000+ per day, the real infection rate is thus estimated at 300K-450K a day, yet 2K+ a day are being hospitalised (around half of which are 'incidental' infection discoveries). 18K infected people are in hospital. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Omicron does not represent a great threat to vaccinated people. I suggest the vaccinated should go about their business as usual if they have been in contact with someone infected, rather than isolating, so reducing the activity in our economy. The people who do need protection are the unvaccinated but most of those are in that position by choice. For their protection and for the protection of the health system, I suggest they should be subject to lockdown. Denying them their best opportunity to become infected through mixing with others will slow down their rate of infection and the burden that their avoidable illness places on the health system.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:43 pm

art wrote:
Omicron does not represent a great threat to vaccinated people. I suggest the vaccinated should go about their business as usual if they have been in contact with someone infected, rather than isolating, so reducing the activity in our economy. The people who do need protection are the unvaccinated but most of those are in that position by choice. For their protection and for the protection of the health system, I suggest they should be subject to lockdown. Denying them their best opportunity to become infected through mixing with others will slow down their rate of infection and the burden that their avoidable illness places on the health system.

I'll rephrase, we are reaching the point where we must open up for economics, but we still cannot afford this hospital loading. e.g., new hospitals canceling elective surgeries:
https://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com ... -isolation

We do need to deny the unvaccinated the "opportunity" to be infected when the hospitals are overloaded. Vaccines do have a benefit of slowing the spread despite all the bad propoganda:
https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinat ... vid-171302

The time to pursue zero risk is over. It is now just about managing hospital workloads. We need to modify triage to get the elective surgeries moving again. I propose:
1 point for vaccinated, but not boosted
2 points for one dose of vaccine
3 points for unvaccinated
I posted before how "natural immunity" just isn't working. I'm ok with 1 less point for "natural immunity" if a documented case within the last 125 days (half life of natural immunity). After that, no credit should be given. A link on more hospitals in the UK canceling surgeries because of those who just don't care about their group impact on the community:
https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinat ... vid-171302

Note: I can already hear the rebuttals. Age and obesity are already assigned triage points. So is cancer, HIV, heart trouble, diabetes, and pre-diabetes. This is only fair.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 7:30 pm

The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 8:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber

I think it is a bit of both,

I think we are still waiting for the peak in the US,. and the numbers may get as high.

Still waiting to see what this Delta Omicron mix is. I wonder if it is possible to just have both in your system at the same time?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/20 ... b3a932a59f

Deltacron cases were found in 25 samples taken in Cyprus, of which 11 were from patients hospitalized with Covid and 14 from the general public, according to Cyprus Mail, a local English daily.

Analysis shows deltacron is more often found in patients hospitalized with Covid-19 than those with Covid-19 who are not hospitalized, Kostrikis said.

It is “quite possible” that the new strain has not been found elsewhere, and the sequences of the cases have been sent to GISAID, a Germany-based international database that tracks developments in the coronavirus, the Cyprus Mail reported.

 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:46 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber

I think it is a bit of both,

I think we are still waiting for the peak in the US,. and the numbers may get as high.

Still waiting to see what this Delta Omicron mix is. I wonder if it is possible to just have both in your system at the same time?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/20 ... b3a932a59f

Deltacron cases were found in 25 samples taken in Cyprus, of which 11 were from patients hospitalized with Covid and 14 from the general public, according to Cyprus Mail, a local English daily.

Analysis shows deltacron is more often found in patients hospitalized with Covid-19 than those with Covid-19 who are not hospitalized, Kostrikis said.

It is “quite possible” that the new strain has not been found elsewhere, and the sequences of the cases have been sent to GISAID, a Germany-based international database that tracks developments in the coronavirus, the Cyprus Mail reported.


Answering on having both.
My friends and relatives in the coronavirus wards have seen people with more than one variant and they had to be careful when variants were switching to have an A and B staff to treat each group as mixed infections were bad. So maybe a new variant, or an unlucky individual to catch both at once. Now, I'm not aware of this in the USA, but I've heard about the original variants (e.g., found in Wuhan) and Alpha or Alpha and Delta. This new might be a new variant or as you query, some poor individuals who have both.

The USA is weeks away from the peak. I have no doubt we'll do worse than the current peak in France. I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked. However, from the German example, it might just be sufficient to lockdown the unvaccinated:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~FRA~DEU

The French hospital cases aren't yet bad and are growing linearly at a slope not as bad as the UK's. The hospitalized cases in the USA look like a rocket's initial flight path. (note: the latest data points are always corrected upwards, so ignore the newest data point).
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I'm not liking the trendlines of the deaths. I'm not saying they're bad, I'm say the trend is not our friend and shows the cost of asking too much of the medical system for too long:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:02 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber

I think it is a bit of both,

I think we are still waiting for the peak in the US,. and the numbers may get as high.

Still waiting to see what this Delta Omicron mix is. I wonder if it is possible to just have both in your system at the same time?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/20 ... b3a932a59f

Deltacron cases were found in 25 samples taken in Cyprus, of which 11 were from patients hospitalized with Covid and 14 from the general public, according to Cyprus Mail, a local English daily.

Analysis shows deltacron is more often found in patients hospitalized with Covid-19 than those with Covid-19 who are not hospitalized, Kostrikis said.

It is “quite possible” that the new strain has not been found elsewhere, and the sequences of the cases have been sent to GISAID, a Germany-based international database that tracks developments in the coronavirus, the Cyprus Mail reported.


Answering on having both.
My friends and relatives in the coronavirus wards have seen people with more than one variant and they had to be careful when variants were switching to have an A and B staff to treat each group as mixed infections were bad. So maybe a new variant, or an unlucky individual to catch both at once. Now, I'm not aware of this in the USA, but I've heard about the original variants (e.g., found in Wuhan) and Alpha or Alpha and Delta. This new might be a new variant or as you query, some poor individuals who have both.

The USA is weeks away from the peak. I have no doubt we'll do worse than the current peak in France. I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked. However, from the German example, it might just be sufficient to lockdown the unvaccinated:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~FRA~DEU

The French hospital cases aren't yet bad and are growing linearly at a slope not as bad as the UK's. The hospitalized cases in the USA look like a rocket's initial flight path. (note: the latest data points are always corrected upwards, so ignore the newest data point).
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I'm not liking the trendlines of the deaths. I'm not saying they're bad, I'm say the trend is not our friend and shows the cost of asking too much of the medical system for too long:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA



Germany and India look great compared to the rest, but i dare say that India is just starting it's bout with Omicron.

I wish more were vaccinated.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:29 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber

I think it is a bit of both,

I think we are still waiting for the peak in the US,. and the numbers may get as high.

Still waiting to see what this Delta Omicron mix is. I wonder if it is possible to just have both in your system at the same time?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/20 ... b3a932a59f

Deltacron cases were found in 25 samples taken in Cyprus, of which 11 were from patients hospitalized with Covid and 14 from the general public, according to Cyprus Mail, a local English daily.

Analysis shows deltacron is more often found in patients hospitalized with Covid-19 than those with Covid-19 who are not hospitalized, Kostrikis said.

It is “quite possible” that the new strain has not been found elsewhere, and the sequences of the cases have been sent to GISAID, a Germany-based international database that tracks developments in the coronavirus, the Cyprus Mail reported.


Answering on having both.
My friends and relatives in the coronavirus wards have seen people with more than one variant and they had to be careful when variants were switching to have an A and B staff to treat each group as mixed infections were bad. So maybe a new variant, or an unlucky individual to catch both at once. Now, I'm not aware of this in the USA, but I've heard about the original variants (e.g., found in Wuhan) and Alpha or Alpha and Delta. This new might be a new variant or as you query, some poor individuals who have both.

The USA is weeks away from the peak. I have no doubt we'll do worse than the current peak in France. I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked. However, from the German example, it might just be sufficient to lockdown the unvaccinated:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~FRA~DEU

The French hospital cases aren't yet bad and are growing linearly at a slope not as bad as the UK's. The hospitalized cases in the USA look like a rocket's initial flight path. (note: the latest data points are always corrected upwards, so ignore the newest data point).
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I'm not liking the trendlines of the deaths. I'm not saying they're bad, I'm say the trend is not our friend and shows the cost of asking too much of the medical system for too long:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA


The confounding factor min the data suggesting some lockdowns worked is the types of variants. Austria locked down to bring a Delta outbreak under control, but now has growing cases linked to Omicron.

My state of NSW relaxed mkost restrictions in mid-December on the basis that 12+yo vaccination rates above 90% would control Delta cases. But we have seen testing systenms overwhelmed by Omicron, and new cases are being underreported as a result. A realistic conservative estmate is 50,000 new cases per day.

Some restrictions have now been reintroduced, with the daily number hospitalised haveing increased tenfold in less than a month. For most, symptoms are relatively mild (bad headache for a couple iof days etc), but the sheer case numbers are resulting in increased hospitalisations and deaths
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:42 am

lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber


Tests are free for the vaccinated in France, and vaccination rates are high. For the holidays people tested before Christmas, before the 31st, before taking a plane or a train, seeing older people, etc.

First week back in school, tons of kids had to be tested, several times, once one kid is positive in a classroom : https://www.reuters.com/world/french-sc ... 022-01-07/

In the week to Jan. 2, a record 8.3 million coronavirus tests were carried out, and that was before the end of the holiday period.


There has been changes to reduce the load a bit, now people are encouraged to use self tests, particularly for the 2nd and 3rd test you must make when you have been in contact with someone positive : https://mesconseilscovid.sante.gouv.fr/ ... al-complet
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:59 am

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think it is a bit of both,

I think we are still waiting for the peak in the US,. and the numbers may get as high.

Still waiting to see what this Delta Omicron mix is. I wonder if it is possible to just have both in your system at the same time?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/20 ... b3a932a59f


Answering on having both.
My friends and relatives in the coronavirus wards have seen people with more than one variant and they had to be careful when variants were switching to have an A and B staff to treat each group as mixed infections were bad. So maybe a new variant, or an unlucky individual to catch both at once. Now, I'm not aware of this in the USA, but I've heard about the original variants (e.g., found in Wuhan) and Alpha or Alpha and Delta. This new might be a new variant or as you query, some poor individuals who have both.

The USA is weeks away from the peak. I have no doubt we'll do worse than the current peak in France. I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked. However, from the German example, it might just be sufficient to lockdown the unvaccinated:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~FRA~DEU

The French hospital cases aren't yet bad and are growing linearly at a slope not as bad as the UK's. The hospitalized cases in the USA look like a rocket's initial flight path. (note: the latest data points are always corrected upwards, so ignore the newest data point).
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I'm not liking the trendlines of the deaths. I'm not saying they're bad, I'm say the trend is not our friend and shows the cost of asking too much of the medical system for too long:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA



Germany and India look great compared to the rest, but i dare say that India is just starting it's bout with Omicron.

I wish more were vaccinated.

Germany locked down. India's data didn't add up in the Delta wave.
https://www.hngn.com/articles/236408/20 ... 0worldwide.
The undercount in India has also created a major gap in the world's understanding of the Delta variant's impact, which health experts think contributed to one of the world's worst COVID-19 surges in April and May.

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The cases in France are pretty amazing.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... UT~NLD~FRA

Is France just testing better or is there another reason their cases are so high?

Lightsaber


Tests are free for the vaccinated in France, and vaccination rates are high. For the holidays people tested before Christmas, before the 31st, before taking a plane or a train, seeing older people, etc.

First week back in school, tons of kids had to be tested, several times, once one kid is positive in a classroom : https://www.reuters.com/world/french-sc ... 022-01-07/

In the week to Jan. 2, a record 8.3 million coronavirus tests were carried out, and that was before the end of the holiday period.


There has been changes to reduce the load a bit, now people are encouraged to use self tests, particularly for the 2nd and 3rd test you must make when you have been in contact with someone positive : https://mesconseilscovid.sante.gouv.fr/ ... al-complet


That is an amazing number of tests. So the spike is, shall we say, better understanding of the situation. Although it concerns me this might be skewed toward the vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:07 am

A new variant that combines Delta and Omicron has been discovered in Cyprus. Though researches looking at the published data proposed that it might be due to a lab mix-up, the scientists that is behind the discovery asserts it is not and probably more importantly it was a multi-lab/country study there has been similar findings in Israel as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-an-error

The mainstream media have been going back-and-forth on deltacron, "confirming" it is a new variant then it isn't, which does nothing but sow distrust among the general public.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked.

Again, no lockdowns in Denmark or Belgium...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emier-says

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium ... s-omicron/
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:06 am

The whole family, including myself have Covid at the moment. The amount of false negatives from a variety of self-tests lasting well into symptomatic disease are astounding.

Do not trust self-testing for omicron.

(And before you ask. They were done correctly, they were all on the list of self-tests actually tested and used by the health authority and used for health personell. My wife works in the industry. We also tested the throat in addition to the nose, as recommended by the gurus these days.)
 
pune
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deltacron new variant spotted in Cyrpus.

Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:40 pm

Just came across this -

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/08/cyprus- ... delta.html?

From the reports it is too early to say. Omicron has been setting up new records for infections and hospitalizations :(
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:58 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm just curious why so high when lockdowns in Austria, Belgium, and Denmark worked.

Again, no lockdowns in Denmark or Belgium...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emier-says

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium ... s-omicron/

You're right, I was thinking of the Delta lockdown.
https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Den ... own-623825

I'm curious what they are doing?

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:01 pm

M564038 wrote:
The whole family, including myself have Covid at the moment. The amount of false negatives from a variety of self-tests lasting well into symptomatic disease are astounding.

Do not trust self-testing for omicron.

(And before you ask. They were done correctly, they were all on the list of self-tests actually tested and used by the health authority and used for health personell. My wife works in the industry. We also tested the throat in addition to the nose, as recommended by the gurus these days.)

I hope you and yours recover soon.

Self tests seem to only catch Omicron on the most contagious days. My relative in the hospital notes they did a study and found PCR testing has 25% false negatives. No link, just 4 doctors who were sick volunteered to be tested 4 times each. 12 positives, 4 negatives. All were sick.

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:29 pm

Furniture giant Ikea slashes sick pay for unvaccinated staff forced to self-isolate after close contact with someone infected with Covid-19


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntact.html

By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:09 pm

art wrote:
Furniture giant Ikea slashes sick pay for unvaccinated staff forced to self-isolate after close contact with someone infected with Covid-19


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntact.html

By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:22 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
art wrote:
By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.

I have no idea if reported infection numbers are down due to less testing/less registration of positive tests. If the numbers continue the downward trend just started 5 days ago, I will be inclined to think that reduction is at least in part due to the infection rate dropping. Perhaps I'm just optimistic.

PS I'm a bit tired to check but from memory the South African omicron numbers rose very steeply and dropped very steeply so if there is a similar pattern here in UK, that will increase my confidence that the data are not being greatly skewed downwards by testing deficiencies.
Last edited by art on Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:25 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 13423.html

The next issue is a dairy shortage. The price of milk, cheese, and butter doesn't justify the feed prices.

When the cost of production goes up faster than purchase prices, cut production.


Kent350787 wrote:
art wrote:
Furniture giant Ikea slashes sick pay for unvaccinated staff forced to self-isolate after close contact with someone infected with Covid-19


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntact.html

By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.

I know locally, in Los Angeles, the testing system is overwhelmed. They are closing down allergist offices to convert them into testing centers (I guess they have the machines).

Data is just swamped. I personally do not think we know the case rate.

What is it, hospitalizations follow cases by two weeks?

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Posts: 23899
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:25 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
art wrote:
Furniture giant Ikea slashes sick pay for unvaccinated staff forced to self-isolate after close contact with someone infected with Covid-19


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntact.html

By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.

I know locally, in Los Angeles, the testing system is overwhelmed. They are closing down allergist offices to convert them into testing centers (I guess they have the machines).

Data is just swamped. I personally do not think we know the case rate.

What is it, hospitalizations follow cases by two weeks?

Lightsaber

Late edit: Omicron hitting dairy production:
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 13423.html
 
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casinterest
Posts: 15200
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
art wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntact.html

By the way, 7 day average of infections detected in UK continues its day on day fall. Down each day for the last 5 days after rising each day (with one exception) from the start of December to January 5th.

01 Dec 42K
08 Dec 47K
15 Dec 57K
22 Dec 91K
29 Dec 130K
05 Jan 182K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.

I know locally, in Los Angeles, the testing system is overwhelmed. They are closing down allergist offices to convert them into testing centers (I guess they have the machines).

Data is just swamped. I personally do not think we know the case rate.

What is it, hospitalizations follow cases by two weeks?

Lightsaber

Late edit: Omicron hitting dairy production:
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 13423.html


The hospitals are getting flooded, but at this point it looks like we are in a peddle to the metal situation as many Democrats aren't willing to shut down for the unvaccinated anymore.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... me-1404752

If hospitalizations trails by two weeks, we are in for some serious problems in the Medical industry.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-bre ... 022-01-10/

COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States reached a record high on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as a surge in infections caused by the highly contagious Omicron variant strains health systems in several states.

There were 132,646 people hospitalized with COVID, surpassing the record of 132,051 set in January last year


My main worry is that the Rural( Highly unvaccinated areas) will be trailing in with the most severe cases as the doctors are already going to be fatigued, in the next 2-4 weeks.

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