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Pi7472000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:23 am

We need an N95 mask mandate across the U.S. during this omicron wave. Data is showing N95s really reduce transmission. Glad to see the mayor of Salt Lake City mandate N95s. I wonder if a lockdown of the unvaccinated would help as they are filling our hospitals and ICUs.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:43 am

All hospitals are reporting between 2/3 and 90%+ of their ICU patients being non-vaccinated.

The solution seems clear to me... The data is there and people have made their choice.
When hospital beds are in short supply, the unvaxxed should be kept at the door to wait for their turn.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:47 am

art wrote:
I have no idea if reported infection numbers are down due to less testing/less registration of positive tests.

How’s the test positivity rate trending? If that’s falling as well it likely is a true decline in cases occurring.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:26 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
art wrote:
I have no idea if reported infection numbers are down due to less testing/less registration of positive tests.

How’s the test positivity rate trending? If that’s falling as well it likely is a true decline in cases occurring.


Since omicron appeared the positivity rate in England shot up from around the 8%-10% level (where it had been for many weeks) to 30%+ at the beginning of 2022. Bad news or good news? To me, good news - with the arrival of omicron daily infections tripled/quadrupled but demand for hospital treatment has not increased proportionately. I see omicron replacing delta as a good development on balance - millions of people (perhaps 5% of the population) are being infected each week, imbuing those people with some post-recovery immunity if they were not vaccinated, boosting immunity if they were. OK, the unvaccinated risk becoming ill, extremely ill or even death but that is their desire. The more quickly the population develops some immunity, the sooner we can go back to something approaching normality in our lives.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... me=England
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:45 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:

Is this due to a reduction of infection or a failure of the testing system? In my location, formal case numbers have been reltively stable, but the testing system is entirely overwhelmed. Registration of positive PCR/lateral flow results is not yet in place, and it is likely that actual case numbers are significantly higher than reported figures.

Until a fortnighta ago the reported case numbers were overall trustworthy.

I know locally, in Los Angeles, the testing system is overwhelmed. They are closing down allergist offices to convert them into testing centers (I guess they have the machines).

Data is just swamped. I personally do not think we know the case rate.

What is it, hospitalizations follow cases by two weeks?

Lightsaber

Late edit: Omicron hitting dairy production:
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 13423.html


The hospitals are getting flooded, but at this point it looks like we are in a peddle to the metal situation as many Democrats aren't willing to shut down for the unvaccinated anymore.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... me-1404752

If hospitalizations trails by two weeks, we are in for some serious problems in the Medical industry.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-bre ... 022-01-10/

COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States reached a record high on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as a surge in infections caused by the highly contagious Omicron variant strains health systems in several states.

There were 132,646 people hospitalized with COVID, surpassing the record of 132,051 set in January last year


My main worry is that the Rural( Highly unvaccinated areas) will be trailing in with the most severe cases as the doctors are already going to be fatigued, in the next 2-4 weeks.

I would phrase the vaccinated aren't willing to accommodate the unvaccinated anymore. Otherwise I 100% agree with you.

e.g., locally there is a hospital chock full and they service a mostly Democrat unvaccinated demographic. All but two of my friends are vaccinated and one each from the major political parties. I know literally hundreds of vaccinated Republicans and just as many unvaccinated Democrats.

The virus doesn't care about party lines.

What matters is that we are weeks from the hospital peak and we're already seeing massive triage. Some of those patients will need a bed for weeks, if not months. The reality is people chose their fate 6+ weeks ago.

My relative in the hospital needed an ear yesterday as two patients, both women in their 30s, are just not doing well. One "was an athlete" [won't be an athlete in 2022 due to Omicron caught on Boxing day (12/26), it is that bad of nerve damage]; she'll be in the hospital for weeks, if not months more. The other is touch and go due to obesity, waiting for an ICU bed to open up.

7 of my relatives had Omicron this week. For 4 a cold, for one just a positive test, but for two a very miserable high fever, painful experience. The worst "cold" was an unvaccinated relative with a previous Alpha case. He was down 7 days.

Triage is here It is ugly, point based, and the staff attending the patient have no input into who has priority. This means worse outcomes. The ER is having to gatekeep who gets a bed. All were advised to avoid the hospital due to the caseload. One had to do an icebath to control the fever of 104.3F (40.2C) as Tylenol and ibuprofen weren't enough.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I know locally, in Los Angeles, the testing system is overwhelmed. They are closing down allergist offices to convert them into testing centers (I guess they have the machines).

Data is just swamped. I personally do not think we know the case rate.

What is it, hospitalizations follow cases by two weeks?

Lightsaber

Late edit: Omicron hitting dairy production:
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/ ... 13423.html


The hospitals are getting flooded, but at this point it looks like we are in a peddle to the metal situation as many Democrats aren't willing to shut down for the unvaccinated anymore.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... me-1404752

If hospitalizations trails by two weeks, we are in for some serious problems in the Medical industry.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-bre ... 022-01-10/

COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States reached a record high on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as a surge in infections caused by the highly contagious Omicron variant strains health systems in several states.

There were 132,646 people hospitalized with COVID, surpassing the record of 132,051 set in January last year


My main worry is that the Rural( Highly unvaccinated areas) will be trailing in with the most severe cases as the doctors are already going to be fatigued, in the next 2-4 weeks.

I would phrase the vaccinated aren't willing to accommodate the unvaccinated anymore. Otherwise I 100% agree with you.

e.g., locally there is a hospital chock full and they service a mostly Democrat unvaccinated demographic. All but two of my friends are vaccinated and one each from the major political parties. I know literally hundreds of vaccinated Republicans and just as many unvaccinated Democrats.

The virus doesn't care about party lines.

What matters is that we are weeks from the hospital peak and we're already seeing massive triage. Some of those patients will need a bed for weeks, if not months. The reality is people chose their fate 6+ weeks ago.

My relative in the hospital needed an ear yesterday as two patients, both women in their 30s, are just not doing well. One "was an athlete" [won't be an athlete in 2022 due to Omicron caught on Boxing day (12/26), it is that bad of nerve damage]; she'll be in the hospital for weeks, if not months more. The other is touch and go due to obesity, waiting for an ICU bed to open up.

7 of my relatives had Omicron this week. For 4 a cold, for one just a positive test, but for two a very miserable high fever, painful experience. The worst "cold" was an unvaccinated relative with a previous Alpha case. He was down 7 days.

Triage is here It is ugly, point based, and the staff attending the patient have no input into who has priority. This means worse outcomes. The ER is having to gatekeep who gets a bed. All were advised to avoid the hospital due to the caseload. One had to do an icebath to control the fever of 104.3F (40.2C) as Tylenol and ibuprofen weren't enough.

Lightsaber


It is the vaccinated, but the article was making a point about how the democrats are changing their positions on how to handle waves, as more people are vaccinated. I do agree that all of the vaccinated have pretty much worn out their patience with the unvaccinated.

The hospitals are screwed. Omicron is spreading a lot quicker than other versions. It is also creating triage issues just because patients with other ailments are catching it, and the hospitals have to deal with that as well.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/health/u ... index.html
The US averaged more than 754,200 new Covid-19 cases daily over the last week, according to Johns Hopkins University data. That's about three times last winter's peak average (251,987 on January 11, 2021), and 4.5 times the peak from the Delta-driven surge (166,347 on September 1), according to JHU.
The country has averaged 1,646 Covid-19 deaths a day over the last week -- 33% higher than a week ago, according to JHU. The peak average was 3,402 daily on January 13, 2021, JHU data shows.


A ton more cases, and a trendline that is putting more in the hospital. Deaths are rising as well.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:31 pm

casinterest wrote:

The hospitals are screwed. Omicron is spreading a lot quicker than other versions. It is also creating triage issues just because patients with other ailments are catching it, and the hospitals have to deal with that as well.

The hospitals are indeed screwed. As are the patients. You note well how other patients are catching Covid19. The next couple of weeks will be brutal. The questions are how bad and how long (how many weeks).

A typical miserable flu is a "mild case." I hope people know what they signed up for...

Lightsaber
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:43 pm

I already wrote here in mid Dec-2021, that at end of Apr-2022 and with Omicron, we all, vaccinated or not, will have got in contact/infected with Omicron. So end of Apr-2022, we all will have gotten our vaccination, in one or the natural form. So end of Apr-2022, we all have had our payday....No one of us will escape. This was my statement.

Seems the WHO is now the same opinion, >50% of the European population will have got infected with Omicron in the next 6 to 8 weeks. So end of Mar-2022, here in Europe, we have had our 50% rate....
some examples,
in English.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59948920
on German
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/WHO-Bis-Ende-Maerz-jeder-zweite-Europaeer-infiziert-article23050112.html

The rest of the world will not be different.

One of four PCR tests is now positive for Germany.
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Fast-jeder-vierte-PCR-Test-ist-positiv-article23051040.html

Regarding my job in the health "industry", I have a several higher chance to get infected- I have my Booster, I have my 5 to 6 tests per week, let us see, when my payday will come. The two tests (one self, one certified) today were both negative.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:21 pm

Vaccine mandates really seem to work. While on an airline, I think UA is a great example of vaccine mandates:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-w ... story.html

No vaccinated employees are hospitalized, and the hospitalization rate among United employees since the mandate went into effect in the fall has been far lower than that of the general population, he said. Before the requirement, more than one United employee died each week from the virus, on average, Kirby said. The airline has gone eight weeks without a single virus-related death among vaccinated employees.

“In dealing with COVID, zero is the word that matters — zero deaths and zero hospitalizations for vaccinated employees,” he said. “And while I know that some people still disagree with our policy, United is proving that requiring the vaccine is the right thing to do because it saves lives.”


Bummer on all the employees out sick (I found the article well worth a read). I'd bet UA not only saved employees lives with the vaccine mandate, but a fortune in health care costs.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Vaccine mandates really seem to work. While on an airline, I think UA is a great example of vaccine mandates:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-w ... story.html

No vaccinated employees are hospitalized, and the hospitalization rate among United employees since the mandate went into effect in the fall has been far lower than that of the general population, he said. Before the requirement, more than one United employee died each week from the virus, on average, Kirby said. The airline has gone eight weeks without a single virus-related death among vaccinated employees.

“In dealing with COVID, zero is the word that matters — zero deaths and zero hospitalizations for vaccinated employees,” he said. “And while I know that some people still disagree with our policy, United is proving that requiring the vaccine is the right thing to do because it saves lives.”


Bummer on all the employees out sick (I found the article well worth a read). I'd bet UA not only saved employees lives with the vaccine mandate, but a fortune in health care costs.

Lightsaber

United made a good choice that saved lives. They did it because so many continue to lie.


Unfortunately , certain politicians continue to attack those that are in favor of masking, and vaccine mandates.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/d ... s-82202395

The amount of politicization of this disease cannot be overstated, especially since Rand Paul is fundraising off of his attacks.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:35 pm

The record hospitalizations in the USA aren't nearly as bad as the slope.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart

Considering cases are still rising and there is some delay between cases and hospitalizations... scary.

My heart goes out to those in the healthcare front lines.

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Vaccine mandates really seem to work. While on an airline, I think UA is a great example of vaccine mandates:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-w ... story.html

No vaccinated employees are hospitalized, and the hospitalization rate among United employees since the mandate went into effect in the fall has been far lower than that of the general population, he said. Before the requirement, more than one United employee died each week from the virus, on average, Kirby said. The airline has gone eight weeks without a single virus-related death among vaccinated employees.

“In dealing with COVID, zero is the word that matters — zero deaths and zero hospitalizations for vaccinated employees,” he said. “And while I know that some people still disagree with our policy, United is proving that requiring the vaccine is the right thing to do because it saves lives.”


Bummer on all the employees out sick (I found the article well worth a read). I'd bet UA not only saved employees lives with the vaccine mandate, but a fortune in health care costs.

Lightsaber

United made a good choice that saved lives. They did it because so many continue to lie.


Unfortunately , certain politicians continue to attack those that are in favor of masking, and vaccine mandates.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/d ... s-82202395

The amount of politicization of this disease cannot be overstated, especially since Rand Paul is fundraising off of his attacks.

I'm not happy this was politicized. I swear the bad information "feels" like someone undermining the system.

Lightsaber
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:03 am

It’s The Telegraph, I know…but still kind of striking how likely many leading researchers/scientists lean toward the lab leak theory on the origins of COVID.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-b ... 52135.html
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:18 am

Anyone seen anything recently on where we stand with an updated vaccine? My understanding was the big selling point on MRNA vaccines was how quickly and easily they could be updated to target prevailing strains…but we have some countries now eyeballing 4th “boosters.”

While I appreciate the importance of continuing to vaccinate naive individuals and populations, I find it odd that the public health community isn’t shifting messaging at this point to get people acclimated to the notion of regular annual vaccination in the early fall as we do with the flu. Expecting to vaccinate/booster whole populations every 4-5 months just doesn’t come across as realistic to me.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:02 am

Can New Zealand actually eliminate delta is unexpectantly a realistic possibility.
In spite of covid restrictions being substantially eased prior to the peak Christmas socialising season and our summer holiday season. Case numbers and hospitilsations have contimued in a substantial decline to the extent that infections detected at our border are now exceeding community cases.
Today 28 community cases compared with 65 border detections. 35 people in hospital, 2 in ICU but unfortunatly our first 2 covid deaths this year.

And no, we are not in lockdown.
Restaurants, bars and nightclubs are well patronised but entry is resticted to those holding vax certificates but masks are not required. All other indoor venues
masks are required and vax certificated are required for entry into lots of venues but not essential retail.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explai ... nate-delta

The big current effort is preparing for the inevitable leakage from the border facilities into our community of omicrom.
Booster shots are currently being delivered at nearly 1% of our population per day and vaccination starts for children aged 5 to 11 on Monday, with the bulk of stock required already distributed around the country.

Australia, and elsewhere, has taught us PCR laboritory capacity will quickly become overwhelmed so a rapid pivot towards RAT tests will be required.
Hopefully here once again, our strategies and high community compliance will give us a much better then predicted result.
 
Chemist
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:31 am

New Zealand's performance continues to be impressive. Of course it's easier to contain on islands and with lower population. But still, and example of good science-based decisions and leadership.
I was in NZ as a tourist in early March 2020. Probably one of the last tourists in the country. It's a beautiful place.
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:39 am

lightsaber wrote:
I wish Germany would publish hospitalizations like others. The lockdowns definitely are seen in the hospitalization data available:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber


Germany does, for some reason ourworldindata doesn´t include the numbers.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/N ... File#/home

best regards
Thomas
 
yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:29 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Anyone seen anything recently on where we stand with an updated vaccine? My understanding was the big selling point on MRNA vaccines was how quickly and easily they could be updated to target prevailing strains…but we have some countries now eyeballing 4th “boosters.”

While I appreciate the importance of continuing to vaccinate naive individuals and populations, I find it odd that the public health community isn’t shifting messaging at this point to get people acclimated to the notion of regular annual vaccination in the early fall as we do with the flu. Expecting to vaccinate/booster whole populations every 4-5 months just doesn’t come across as realistic to me.

Pfizer will have it ready to go by March : https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/covid-vaccine-pfizer-ceo-says-omicron-vaccine-will-be-ready-in-march.html
Moderna is much slower, they expect it come half a year later in Autumn: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/covid-vaccine-moderna-ceo-says-fall-booster-shots-will-likely-target-omicron.html
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:12 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I wish Germany would publish hospitalizations like others. The lockdowns definitely are seen in the hospitalization data available:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... RA~NLD~DNK

Lightsaber


Germany does, for some reason ourworldindata doesn´t include the numbers.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/N ... File#/home

best regards
Thomas

Thank you. I will save that link. I wonder why it isn't uploaded?
If I read it correctly, the # of cases has peaked except a worrisome trend in school age kids. However, Germany might be getting toward the other side.

It looks like the UK is getting to the other side of this wave, but that the US and France are setting new case records. The first link you quoted already shows the US at record hospitalizations and we are a few weeks from the peak hospitalization.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

The load in the hospitals is bad. Just imagine if there wasn't a responsible group help slowing this? e.g., Everyone in my dance class masks and everyone is boosted. Certainly not a guarantee (one lady just came back after a cold like bought of coronavirus). Another was touting how the titters from her Sanofi booster were constant after 6 months (retired doctor who independently tested titers before and after the trial vaccine administration to verify she didn't get the placebo and tested again to see if she needed a booster).

Now we just need a younger kids vaccine to get through this. And nasal vaccines. Possibly a variant booster.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:21 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
It’s The Telegraph, I know…but still kind of striking how likely many leading researchers/scientists lean toward the lab leak theory on the origins of COVID.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-b ... 52135.html





It is all up in the air. Now we have one of the original "Lab Leak" scientist leaning towards natural causes .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... e-journal/
Worobey has been open to the theory of a lab leak. He was one of the 18 scientists who wrote a much-publicized letter to Science in May calling for an investigation of all possible sources of the virus, including a laboratory accident. But he now contends that the geographic pattern of early cases strongly supports the hypothesis that the virus came from an infected animal at the Huanan Seafood Market — an argument that will probably revive the broader debate about the virus’s origins.


It doesn't matter. Any investigation and concrete answer into where Covid Originated will involve cooperation with the Chinese Authorities. Whether it was the market, or the lab, more information is needed. You don't jump in and blame someone if you want information, and that is where Trump and the GOP are positioned, and it isn't helpful.

lightsaber wrote:
If I read it correctly, the # of cases has peaked except a worrisome trend in school age kids. However, Germany might be getting toward the other side.

It looks like the UK is getting to the other side of this wave, but that the US and France are setting new case records. The first link you quoted already shows the US at record hospitalizations and we are a few weeks from the peak hospitalization.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases


I think the UK is in good shape due to vaccinations. The US and Canada have a bit further to go. However i have seen evidence of some pull back in terms of Church activities, school activities and business travel in NC. The hospitals are filling up, Teachers are calling in sick, and all in all, we are hitting an infrastructure issue with how fast the virus is hitting everyone. The virus spread will slow. However, I expect the rural areas are still 2 weeks out from this slow up.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:00 pm

casinterest wrote:
I think the UK is in good shape due to vaccinations. The US and Canada have a bit further to go. However i have seen evidence of some pull back in terms of Church activities, school activities and business travel in NC. The hospitals are filling up, Teachers are calling in sick, and all in all, we are hitting an infrastructure issue with how fast the virus is hitting everyone. The virus spread will slow. However, I expect the rural areas are still 2 weeks out from this slow up.


Canada's vaccination rate is over 80% for 12 and above over 80% with one dose of all people.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

Canada's issues is the total lack of surge capacity to handle a crisis such as Covid. This is not the fault of our universal health care system per-sey but the fact that there is no capacity in the system to handle a surge which for Canadian taxpayers means higher taxes. Hospitals in other countries have far more ICU capacity than Canada which is why we are in lockdown. The fact 500 ICU admissions can lock down a province of 14.5 million needs to be looked at and it might mean higher taxes.

If you compared Ontario (pop 14.5 million) with Pennsylvania (pop 12.9 million). If Pennsylvania had Ontario's numbers they would be declaring pandemic over.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ont-reports-4 ... -1.5736977

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... Cases.aspx
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:07 pm

To continue a discussion from a now locked thread; @lightsaber said that the vaccines had no long term side effects, which is currently true in most cases for the two shots, but the CDC of the EU (and again here the US CDC seems to be lagging) says that prolonged use of boosters can affect the immune system: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... m-ema-says
 
M564038
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:22 pm

Our health authority (FHI) has said today that they don’t think any kind of close down will be able to stop Omicron, and that they aren’t seeing a big wave of hospitalization amongst the vaccinated. 90%+ of those over 65+ are booster vaccinated, 95% over 75.

Their argument for restriction over the last few months has been squarely about hospital capacity, and still is.
At the same time it has been uncovered that extra capacity available(but not used) last year, has not been called upon this fall and winter. Yes. Doctors and nurses on regular duty has been severly overworked, but the large hospitals has let society close down instead of calling upon extra capacity to make their budgets work.

There will be a political aftermath on how public service hospitals are run by the numbers as companies, and losing sight of the bigger picture they are a part of.

We have had restrictions on par with the strongest we’ve had during the other waves since early december, and cases are skyrocketing.

The governement is going to have a press conference tomorrow. The pressure across the political spectrum and in the press seems to be on them opening up, at least as soon as everyone 18+ has been offered a booster, which will be within a couple of weeks.
The lack of severe disease among the vaccinated compared to the devastation of business and education by further close down seems to demand this.
Personally I agree.

As a parent, lecturer and cultural worker, I have seen the harm this has done among young people, students and culture life. Their loss in real life competence is inmeasurable, as well as the brain drain in creative industries based on people meeting people.
I’ve seen the last couple of years students gradually turn into Hikikomori. I don’t know if they’ll ever be able to turn that around.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:15 pm

For those of you saying we need to triage. Quebec is doing this in a way, they will add a tax for the unvaccinated if they need hospital care for Covid.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.6311054

This is on shaky ground as the right to healthcare is written in our constitution and if this is allowed then this can be applied to essentially any health factor.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
To continue a discussion from a now locked thread; @lightsaber said that the vaccines had no long term side effects, which is currently true in most cases for the two shots, but the CDC of the EU (and again here the US CDC seems to be lagging) says that prolonged use of boosters can affect the immune system: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... m-ema-says


This isn't the first time I heard this and from the experience of my 3rd dose I have to say that was some serious side effects. Facing that every 6 months can't be the best for your immune system. I am not going to line up to get a 4th dose.

We need therapeutics and early treatments as much as vaccines if not more. Vaccines provide a baseline level of protection and we have treatments for infections beyond this. This is the same if you were to get the flu, shingles, measles etc. We give the treatments once infected and with a virus like HIV all we have is treatments.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:39 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think the UK is in good shape due to vaccinations. The US and Canada have a bit further to go. However i have seen evidence of some pull back in terms of Church activities, school activities and business travel in NC. The hospitals are filling up, Teachers are calling in sick, and all in all, we are hitting an infrastructure issue with how fast the virus is hitting everyone. The virus spread will slow. However, I expect the rural areas are still 2 weeks out from this slow up.


Canada's vaccination rate is over 80% for 12 and above over 80% with one dose of all people.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

Canada's issues is the total lack of surge capacity to handle a crisis such as Covid. This is not the fault of our universal health care system per-sey but the fact that there is no capacity in the system to handle a surge which for Canadian taxpayers means higher taxes. Hospitals in other countries have far more ICU capacity than Canada which is why we are in lockdown. The fact 500 ICU admissions can lock down a province of 14.5 million needs to be looked at and it might mean higher taxes.

If you compared Ontario (pop 14.5 million) with Pennsylvania (pop 12.9 million). If Pennsylvania had Ontario's numbers they would be declaring pandemic over.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ont-reports-4 ... -1.5736977

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... Cases.aspx

That number of available beds doesn't seems to be outliners compared.to like Japan or Korea or Taiwan?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:06 am

StarAC17 wrote:
For those of you saying we need to triage. Quebec is doing this in a way, they will add a tax for the unvaccinated if they need hospital care for Covid.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.6311054

This is on shaky ground as the right to healthcare is written in our constitution and if this is allowed then this can be applied to essentially any health factor.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
To continue a discussion from a now locked thread; @lightsaber said that the vaccines had no long term side effects, which is currently true in most cases for the two shots, but the CDC of the EU (and again here the US CDC seems to be lagging) says that prolonged use of boosters can affect the immune system: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... m-ema-says


This isn't the first time I heard this and from the experience of my 3rd dose I have to say that was some serious side effects. Facing that every 6 months can't be the best for your immune system. I am not going to line up to get a 4th dose.

We need therapeutics and early treatments as much as vaccines if not more. Vaccines provide a baseline level of protection and we have treatments for infections beyond this. This is the same if you were to get the flu, shingles, measles etc. We give the treatments once infected and with a virus like HIV all we have is treatments.

First, they are warning every 4 months could be too often. Not that boosters are an issue, it is too frequent of boosters
Instead, countries should leave more time between booster programs and tie them to the onset of the cold season in each hemisphere, following the blueprint set out by influenza vaccination strategies, the agency said.

My prior comment was on boosters every six months and that appears to still be safe.
You cannot rapidly boost a population right when a wave is hitting. It needs to be anticipated.

However, I'm encouraged by a friend who had the Sanofi booster. The titers have remained constant for 6 months (she paid to test herself and as a required doctor, would know how to do it right). This implies if the next booster is Sanofi after mRNA or perhaps Moderna, we can step off this crazy train.

The treatments have bad side effects.
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/202 ... de-effects
Per NBC News, “one of the two drugs in the antiviral cocktail could cause severe or life-threatening interactions with widely used medications, including statins, blood thinners and some antidepressants.”

https://www.wbrc.com/2022/01/06/doctors ... -patients/
“Really, the first step of anything should be vaccination. We should be focused on getting vaccinated because that’s our first step in reducing our risk of having severe disease. The second step is using the treatments like the pill or the monoclonal antibodies, as they are available, to keep people out of the hospital…and of course that comes with all of the other things we’ve already talked about. It comes with side effects, having to visit a physician, and getting a prescription that may or may not be available,” said District Medical Officer with the Alabama Department of Public Health, Dr. Wes Stubblefield.


We're in a surge, there are very limited antiviral pills available.

Anti-viral medicines can cause Renal failure. They should never be a first choice:
https://www.ajkd.org/article/S0272-6386(05)00253-2/fulltext#:~:text=Antiviral%20drugs%20cause%20renal%20failure%20through%20a%20variety,adefovir%20dipivoxil%2C%20and%20tenofovir%2C%20as%20well%20as%20.

Hospitals are in crisis care with an overload of unvaccinated patients.
https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-creating ... 00435.html
“We are all so tired,” said another doctor, based in Chicago, who also requested anonymity. “And that’s even before this recent wave.”

“It has exploded. We’re in a crisis, red-tier situation again,” said Denise Duncan, a registered nurse and president of the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals.


Every doctor I personally know working the covid19 wards will only continue to do so with set schedules with good length breaks between on duty and off. They've gone through this for two years. Coronavirus isa very labor intensive illness.

The backlog of "elective surgeries" has become a problem.

To not vaccinate is silly. I know too many families where the whole household had coronavirus. While some unvaccinated were worse than some vaccinated, the ones who had real scares were unvaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:12 am

They are warning that a booster every four months would likely have a negative impact on the immune system, but they recommend a booster shot every year and not every six months. The current dosage rate is around every three and a half months (started in December and ramped up in January, with the third dose being offered from September and a fourth now with Omicron).

It's likely that a large percentage of the unvaccinated are doing so due to self-awareness of health problems that might be adversely affected by the vaccine; self-restraint by the general public is an important aspect of ensuring that the vaccine does not cause unintended side effects and causalities when considering the haste of development and the lack of medical resources. While I agree that the 60% vaccination rate in the US is ridiculously low, when you get to 80% then you need to consider the noncities of why people are not getting vaccinated (and the majority of the developed world is hovering around the 80% vaccinated mark and even China). In these cases it is highly likely that people with existing health problems will have worse outcomes when infected by the coronavirus.

I think it is clear that vaccines will not get us out of the pandemic. I can imagine that only around 85% of the public will get two doses, but it will fall to around 60% for three doses, and fall further for future does. The emphasis must be on expanding healthcare capacity and developing treatments, rather than blaming the unvaccinated and Trump for everything.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:46 am

lightsaber wrote:


Hospitals are in crisis care with an overload of unvaccinated patients.
https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-creating ... 00435.html
“We are all so tired,” said another doctor, based in Chicago, who also requested anonymity. “And that’s even before this recent wave.”

“It has exploded. We’re in a crisis, red-tier situation again,” said Denise Duncan, a registered nurse and president of the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals.


Lightsaber


On this quote you jumped to the concluston.

There is one phrase saying that "greater vaccination rates" can help but this is followed later on by stating that the problem is how doctors etc... are getting sick despite a vaccine being available.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:46 am

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
I think it is clear that vaccines will not get us out of the pandemic. I can imagine that only around 85% of the public will get two doses, but it will fall to around 60% for three doses, and fall further for future does. The emphasis must be on expanding healthcare capacity and developing treatments, rather than blaming the unvaccinated and Trump for everything.


Vaccines alone probably won't get us out of the crisis, but they'll get us most of the way there. Especially mixed with exposure.

'Expanding healthcare capacity' does not happen overnight. It takes years to train doctors and nurses (assuming you can just pump more of them through the respective academic systems in the first place), and months or years to build hospitals or expand current ones.

Developing treatments is far from an easy thing to do either. There is a reason we do not have a miracle cure against the flu or other viruses despite decades of research. At most we'll get medicines that help a patient get through the disease faster and reduce the mortality rate.

At the end of the day, this is a fast developing health crisis in which the goalposts move constantly. The way through this is to build collective immunity with vaccines and exposure while trying to manage the healthcare system through the successive waves.
The effects are starting to show. Every new wave shows a lower death/infection ratio.

But the fact remains that managing healthcare is much harder to do when hospitals everywhere are clogged with unvaccinated patients.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:41 pm

Hospitalizations on 1/10 hit 141k in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

This means that regionally we'll hit a limit because they just cannot handle any more patients.

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
lightsaber wrote:


Hospitals are in crisis care with an overload of unvaccinated patients.
https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-creating ... 00435.html
“We are all so tired,” said another doctor, based in Chicago, who also requested anonymity. “And that’s even before this recent wave.”

“It has exploded. We’re in a crisis, red-tier situation again,” said Denise Duncan, a registered nurse and president of the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals.


Lightsaber


On this quote you jumped to the concluston.

There is one phrase saying that "greater vaccination rates" can help but this is followed later on by stating that the problem is how doctors etc... are getting sick despite a vaccine being available.

The vast majority of patients are unvaccinated. In my favorite dashboard, 88% of the patients are unvaccinated. 79% of the deaths unvaccinated.

Without that workload, there wouldn't be an issue. Get them vaccinated and the quantity in the hospital plummets. 1/8th of the workload is the just over half the population vaccinated.

There is a problem with medical staff getting ill. They'll recover, they just shouldn't spread in the hospital.

The highest health authorities are broadcasting everyone will get it or:
“I think, in many respects, Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will, ultimately, find just about everybody,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci yesterday during a “fireside chat” with the Center for Strategic & International Initiatives.

https://deadline.com/2022/01/fauci-ever ... 234909238/

The question is the cost on others. We are at record patients with coronavirus (it doesn't matter if in the hospital because of coronavirus or the coronavirus aggravated something else, these patients must be isolated). When I talk to the ER doctors I know, they all discuss how they are being brutal and sending many patients home because they have to keep the beds available for next week.

We'll have solutions. I'm a fan of nasal vaccines, the Sanofi booster, and Novavax based off a retired doctor friend of mine giving me inside insight into the Sanofi booster showing durability.

If we had half or less the patients we do now, we wouldn't have an issue and that is what we would have if more were vaccinated. We should have far less as my opinion is most of the vaccinated who would be hospitalized are already in the hospital (the most frail).

Unfortunately, if you read the chart in the first link of this post, it is obvious that we are not even close to the worst. We treated this as mild and instead hospitalizations lag by weeks was was known early in Omicron::
https://www.texomashomepage.com/news/pf ... c%20Health.

We didn't take
The original (Wuhan) variants seriously
Nor the "California" and Alpha variants
Then Delta
Now Omicron was treated as "mild" but has filled the hospitals.

This is a fast mutating virus. There are no guarantees it mutates always into a more friendly version (e.g., the flu in 1918 mutated into something far worse).
The good news is better vaccines will come out.

In six states: New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Rhode Island, Michigan, and New Mexico have hospitals so overloaded that Federal help:
https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/biden ... io-report/

Oregon is sending 1200 national guard to the hospitals:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/orego ... uxbndlbing

The question is when does this crisis peak?

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:48 pm

If you select countries, the USA now has a 35% positivity rate (select countries and pick the USA):
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

That means we are severely under testing (in particular as all the doctors note a high false negative rate in the hospitals, to the point if they get a negative they are testing again later).
This is a quick illness, the question is how bad will this get?
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The vast majority of patients are unvaccinated. In my favorite dashboard, 88% of the patients are unvaccinated. 79% of the deaths unvaccinated.

Without that workload, there wouldn't be an issue. Get them vaccinated and the quantity in the hospital plummets. 1/8th of the workload is the just over half the population vaccinated.

There is a problem with medical staff getting ill. They'll recover, they just shouldn't spread in the hospital.

The highest health authorities are broadcasting everyone will get it or:
“I think, in many respects, Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will, ultimately, find just about everybody,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci yesterday during a “fireside chat” with the Center for Strategic & International Initiatives.

https://deadline.com/2022/01/fauci-ever ... 234909238/

Lightsaber


The unvaccinated have made America's bed. Now America has to lie in it. Pretty unfair to those who cannot get treated for non-COVID-related problems (because unvaccinated COVID sufferers are grabbing disproportionate amounts of hospital care).

I still suggest locking down the unvaccinated in the hope that they will become infected over a longer period, flattening demand for health resources.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:37 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/treatment-shorta ... 19950.html
art wrote:

Antivirals in very short supply. Illinois only has 100 courses. What I find even more interesting is some states are giving outpatient Remdesivir. :wideeyed:

To myself that makes sense but is also scary as the possible side effects warrant follow up:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supple ... g-20503608


lightsaber wrote:
The vast majority of patients are unvaccinated. In my favorite dashboard, 88% of the patients are unvaccinated. 79% of the deaths unvaccinated.

Without that workload, there wouldn't be an issue. Get them vaccinated and the quantity in the hospital plummets. 1/8th of the workload is the just over half the population vaccinated.

There is a problem with medical staff getting ill. They'll recover, they just shouldn't spread in the hospital.

The highest health authorities are broadcasting everyone will get it or:
“I think, in many respects, Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will, ultimately, find just about everybody,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci yesterday during a “fireside chat” with the Center for Strategic & International Initiatives.

https://deadline.com/2022/01/fauci-ever ... 234909238/

Lightsaber


The unvaccinated have made America's bed. Now America has to lie in it. Pretty unfair to those who cannot get treated for non-COVID-related problems (because unvaccinated COVID sufferers are grabbing disproportionate amounts of hospital care).

I still suggest locking down the unvaccinated in the hope that they will become infected over a longer period, flattening demand for health resources.

I really feel for those who did the right thing and cannot schedule needed treatments. Surgery is only performed with a need (excluding cosmetic surgery for some, I say some as assault, fire, birth defect, and other victims deserve a return to normalcy).

Alas, the US has decided to go full open. e.g., locally Disneyland is still open. :faint:

The nerve related damage with Omicron still happens.

Oh well, I'm not sure what can be done as we haven't hit peak cases yet and hospitalizations lag infections. (I posted links before)

There seems to be ample stock of most of the medicines used to treat Covid19. I really hope we don't run out of anything more (like we have with the antiviral treatments).

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
https://news.yahoo.com/treatment-shortages-packed-hospitals-why-144919950.html
art wrote:

Antivirals in very short supply. Illinois only has 100 courses. What I find even more interesting is some states are giving outpatient Remdesivir. :wideeyed:

To myself that makes sense but is also scary as the possible side effects warrant follow up:
https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supple ... g-20503608


lightsaber wrote:
The vast majority of patients are unvaccinated. In my favorite dashboard, 88% of the patients are unvaccinated. 79% of the deaths unvaccinated.

Without that workload, there wouldn't be an issue. Get them vaccinated and the quantity in the hospital plummets. 1/8th of the workload is the just over half the population vaccinated.

There is a problem with medical staff getting ill. They'll recover, they just shouldn't spread in the hospital.

The highest health authorities are broadcasting everyone will get it or:
“I think, in many respects, Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will, ultimately, find just about everybody,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci yesterday during a “fireside chat” with the Center for Strategic & International Initiatives.

https://deadline.com/2022/01/fauci-ever ... 234909238/

Lightsaber


The unvaccinated have made America's bed. Now America has to lie in it. Pretty unfair to those who cannot get treated for non-COVID-related problems (because unvaccinated COVID sufferers are grabbing disproportionate amounts of hospital care).

I still suggest locking down the unvaccinated in the hope that they will become infected over a longer period, flattening demand for health resources.

I really feel for those who did the right thing and cannot schedule needed treatments. Surgery is only performed with a need (excluding cosmetic surgery for some, I say some as assault, fire, birth defect, and other victims deserve a return to normalcy).

Alas, the US has decided to go full open. e.g., locally Disneyland is still open. :faint:

The nerve related damage with Omicron still happens.

Oh well, I'm not sure what can be done as we haven't hit peak cases yet and hospitalizations lag infections. (I posted links before)

There seems to be ample stock of most of the medicines used to treat Covid19. I really hope we don't run out of anything more (like we have with the antiviral treatments).

Lightsaber

Even in Hong Kong and Japan, following similar reports from Western media, a number of people are now adopting the idea that "Omicron are just cold" and "Vaccine won't work for Omicron anyway", from my personal experience
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:31 pm

StarAC17 wrote:

Canada's vaccination rate is over 80% for 12 and above over 80% with one dose of all people.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... -coverage/

Canada's issues is the total lack of surge capacity to handle a crisis such as Covid. This is not the fault of our universal health care system per-sey but the fact that there is no capacity in the system to handle a surge which for Canadian taxpayers means higher taxes. Hospitals in other countries have far more ICU capacity than Canada which is why we are in lockdown. The fact 500 ICU admissions can lock down a province of 14.5 million needs to be looked at and it might mean higher taxes.

If you compared Ontario (pop 14.5 million) with Pennsylvania (pop 12.9 million). If Pennsylvania had Ontario's numbers they would be declaring pandemic over.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ont-reports-4 ... -1.5736977

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... Cases.aspx


Generally agree, with some caveats.

1. “Higher taxes” aren’t the solution (or problem) in and of themselves. The bigger problem is a combination of relatively low disposable income and growing inflationary pressures. Higher taxes will eat into that, slowing economic growth and creating spin-off problems. That isn’t to say there isn’t room for more taxes; that can be created fairly easily by getting rid of the de-facto taxes (sector-specific) taxes we already pay for essential goods and services (banks, telcos, dairy) through monopolistic/oligopolistic premiums due to protectionism. There’s no appetite for that - more likely you’ll end up with unsustainable borrowing in the short term, and an eventual cull of public services like in the 90s. Rinse, repeat if/when a new virus comes along.

2. Universal healthcare in Canada is always going to be stretched thin because 9 times out of 10, surge capacity will be viewed as inefficient and uncontrolled government spending (especially when not in use). The politics of healthcare is such that unless 90% of it is being used during “normal” times, it becomes an easy target for spending cuts. The closer it runs to capacity, the more efficient it is seen to be. That’s alright in normal times. COVID has upended it.

3. The UK has a significant advantage over Canada; it doesn’t make it as onerous for foreign-trained healthcare professionals to transfer their credentials. Long-standing Canadian skepticism of foreign credentials (while simultaneously using them as the basis for selecting “skilled” immigrants) has contributed to the sorry state Ontario’s healthcare finds itself in (to the extent that the province is now trying to locate foreign-trained nurses it’s ignored for years, to hire them. See here: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2 ... 35340.html). In any other country, it would be absurd to have foreign trained staff doing nothing while medical professionals are complaining about staff capacity. In Canada, the same medical professionals who’re complaining about being overworked, have long been proponents of keeping these foreign trained professionals out. I think it’s plainly evident that staff shortages are hurting Canadian healthcare more than anything else: buying hospital equipment is relatively easy; staffing it, isn’t.

Apparently Canadian doctors are paid more than Swiss doctors (https://medicfootprints.org/10-highest- ... r-doctors/ ), which probably explains the barriers targeting foreign trained staff. There’s no point having a Rolls Royce health care system if it breaks down as soon as it encounters uneven road. The ugly reality is that cancer patients are literally having their surgeries postponed today because of staffing issues. It’s not a universal healthcare problem.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:33 pm

Well NC hasn't peaked yet, and today's numbers are staggering.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/more-t ... /20074886/

Nearly 44,900 people tested positive for coronavirus in the past 24 hours, which is the most ever added in a single day.

The number of people who tested positive with COVID-19 on Thursday is 54% higher than the recent record of 25,445 reported on Wednesday.

More than 4,275 people are currently hospitalized with the virus, a high not seen even during the state's fall delta case surge.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:29 pm

casinterest wrote:
Well NC hasn't peaked yet, and today's numbers are staggering.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/more-t ... /20074886/

Nearly 44,900 people tested positive for coronavirus in the past 24 hours, which is the most ever added in a single day.

The number of people who tested positive with COVID-19 on Thursday is 54% higher than the recent record of 25,445 reported on Wednesday.

More than 4,275 people are currently hospitalized with the virus, a high not seen even during the state's fall delta case surge.


If it is of any consolation, omicron was first detected in UK end November and reported infection numbers peaked 5 weeks later Jan 5. Looking at the upwards and downwards slopes of the data when charted, the 7 day infection average numbers look to be falling roughly as sharply as they rose:

.Jan 5 - 8 days 119K
.Jan 5 - 7 days 130K
.Jan 5 - 6 days 140K
.Jan 5 - 5 days 149K
.Jan 5 - 4 days 156K
.Jan 5 - 3 days 160K
.Jan 5 - 2 days 173K
.Jan 5 - 1 day 180K
.Jan 5 peak day 182K
.Jan 5 + 1 day 181K
.Jan 5 + 2 days 179K
.Jan 5 + 3 days 177K
.Jan 5 + 4 days 177K
.Jan 5 + 5 days 170K
.Jan 5 + 6 days 156K
.Jan 5 + 7 days 146K
.Jan 5 + 8 days 109K

I hope that the UK profile of a sharp increase followed by a sharp fall (based on limited post-peak data) will be echoed in the US so that hospital services are not swamped for long. I make no predictions but I won't be surprised if 5 weeks after its peak the number of daily omicron infections in the UK will have fallen back near the preceding delta infections level. Just my guess.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:14 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
1. “Higher taxes” aren’t the solution (or problem) in and of themselves. The bigger problem is a combination of relatively low disposable income and growing inflationary pressures. Higher taxes will eat into that, slowing economic growth and creating spin-off problems. That isn’t to say there isn’t room for more taxes; that can be created fairly easily by getting rid of the de-facto taxes (sector-specific) taxes we already pay for essential goods and services (banks, telcos, dairy) through monopolistic/oligopolistic premiums due to protectionism. There’s no appetite for that - more likely you’ll end up with unsustainable borrowing in the short term, and an eventual cull of public services like in the 90s. Rinse, repeat if/when a new virus comes along.

2. Universal healthcare in Canada is always going to be stretched thin because 9 times out of 10, surge capacity will be viewed as inefficient and uncontrolled government spending (especially when not in use). The politics of healthcare is such that unless 90% of it is being used during “normal” times, it becomes an easy target for spending cuts. The closer it runs to capacity, the more efficient it is seen to be. That’s alright in normal times. COVID has upended it.

3. The UK has a significant advantage over Canada; it doesn’t make it as onerous for foreign-trained healthcare professionals to transfer their credentials. Long-standing Canadian skepticism of foreign credentials (while simultaneously using them as the basis for selecting “skilled” immigrants) has contributed to the sorry state Ontario’s healthcare finds itself in (to the extent that the province is now trying to locate foreign-trained nurses it’s ignored for years, to hire them. See here: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2 ... 35340.html). In any other country, it would be absurd to have foreign trained staff doing nothing while medical professionals are complaining about staff capacity. In Canada, the same medical professionals who’re complaining about being overworked, have long been proponents of keeping these foreign trained professionals out. I think it’s plainly evident that staff shortages are hurting Canadian healthcare more than anything else: buying hospital equipment is relatively easy; staffing it, isn’t.

Apparently Canadian doctors are paid more than Swiss doctors (https://medicfootprints.org/10-highest- ... r-doctors/ ), which probably explains the barriers targeting foreign trained staff. There’s no point having a Rolls Royce health care system if it breaks down as soon as it encounters uneven road. The ugly reality is that cancer patients are literally having their surgeries postponed today because of staffing issues. It’s not a universal healthcare problem.


1) I hope a more efficient management structure especially in Ontario is needed but there are funding gaps in the health care system especially with the changing demographics that will need to be addressed. Properly funding health care along with education, infrastructure and defense should be the biggest focus of government. I do agree the Canadian government focuses too much on protectionism in some sectors and that is something the should focus less on.

2) This doesn't apply to healthcare but business too, not being able to meet demand is just as bad as not having demand. They need more capacity than they have because there is no reason for Ontario to be in lockdown now. The load of Covid cases relative to population of Ontario is tragic and I can understand being blind sighted 2 year ago but this could have been fixed in the last two years. We should easily be able to handle double the numbers we have while keeping the economy open. Healthcare needs some degree of deadweight loss to be able to serve the public.

Perhaps we need to carefully implement private coverage in some capacity to alleviate the public system is its regulated enough to be able to serve the people and not just those with the most cash.

3) Agree 100%, assess the competence of foreign trained nurses and doctors and then if there are gaps in their knowledge and provide the training needed to get up to speed.
 
77Phoebe
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:13 pm

quote="casinterest"]
77Phoebe wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Here is your 2019 leading causes of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 09-508.pdf
Dr
You can then cross compare with the below for 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm

The below site has a neat breakdown of 2015-2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2778234

Image


2021 is still preliminary, but you can start here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/125 ... ber-daily/

I think you will find that Covid was and still is the most preventable cause of death that we can control in that list.


Unfortunately the tallies are not divided up into meaningful cross sections. The VAST VAST number of fatalities from Covid-19 are the one way or another are the nearly dead. The collateral damage for the 'Covid-19 measures' will affect the young disproportionately.. And they will be the poor sods paying for it.


You asked about deaths, and they are there.
Families that offer support to kids will help them out. Teachers will help them out in schools. This whole 'Covid-19 measurements' stick is disingenuous and wrong. How about all the kids that lost their parents and grandparents due to the fact that they couldn't or didn't get a vaccine?[/quote]

AHH, you're one of those 'The only deaths that are directly caused by Covid-19 are important all the other problem caused by lockdowns and other pointless measures are utterly irrelevant.' people. Gotcha.

"Kid's will catch up if their parents and teachers help them." Dear God how utterly, utterly clueless. Of course the well off engaged kids in good schools will be fine, they always were going to be. What proportion of children in the US (for example) have parents that are unable or unwilling to help their children catch up? 25%? How's the US public school system? Robust? How are teachers meant to find time to 'help them out'?, it's just utter nonsense. And the most vulnerable will be the most affected.

If you think that we have not just caused massive, long term avoidable damage to our children by our actions over the last two years then I dispare. The loss of education will knock on to future generations. Jesus, kids don't even get it badly.
 
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Tugger
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 pm

77Phoebe wrote:
[...]
If you think that we have not just caused massive, long term avoidable damage to our children by our actions over the last two years then I dispare. The loss of education will knock on to future generations. Jesus, kids don't even get it badly.

Two points:

Yes it will have an impact but it will not be horrible. The depression did terrible things as did WWII and both generations of children adapted and succeeded. We just honestly do not know how it will affect things but past societal interruptions suggest it will not be "worst case".

The issue with children is not how it affects them. The problem is the fact that they still get it and will bring it back to those that are vulnerable. Not that I don't fully support bringing back kids to in class instruction and that "stay at home" for students has been over applied.

Tugg
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:08 pm

In my state, daily new cases are now at least 200% higher than they were before Omicron, yet the number admitted to hospital is only around 20% higher than early December. Less positive is that the daily deaths are a littel above 1% of hospitalisations, although there is little information yet on whether the deaths are due to Omicron or Delta, which remains approx. 10% of infections.

The deaths are tending to the elderly, with unvaccinated overrepresented in hospitalisations, ICU needs and deaths.

As PCR testing was largely overwhelmed, RAT is now acceptable (although tests are expensive and in short supply), but there is a lag in reporting, with RATs only officially counted as positive results and recorded since Wednesday.

NSW and Victoria, which together have 60% of the national population, are working together to ensure full return to face-to-face school at the end of the month (end of our summer holidays). I expect that cohort separation will be key, as it was at the end of the 2021 school year.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:30 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
1. “Higher taxes” aren’t the solution (or problem) in and of themselves. The bigger problem is a combination of relatively low disposable income and growing inflationary pressures. Higher taxes will eat into that, slowing economic growth and creating spin-off problems. That isn’t to say there isn’t room for more taxes; that can be created fairly easily by getting rid of the de-facto taxes (sector-specific) taxes we already pay for essential goods and services (banks, telcos, dairy) through monopolistic/oligopolistic premiums due to protectionism. There’s no appetite for that - more likely you’ll end up with unsustainable borrowing in the short term, and an eventual cull of public services like in the 90s. Rinse, repeat if/when a new virus comes along.

2. Universal healthcare in Canada is always going to be stretched thin because 9 times out of 10, surge capacity will be viewed as inefficient and uncontrolled government spending (especially when not in use). The politics of healthcare is such that unless 90% of it is being used during “normal” times, it becomes an easy target for spending cuts. The closer it runs to capacity, the more efficient it is seen to be. That’s alright in normal times. COVID has upended it.

3. The UK has a significant advantage over Canada; it doesn’t make it as onerous for foreign-trained healthcare professionals to transfer their credentials. Long-standing Canadian skepticism of foreign credentials (while simultaneously using them as the basis for selecting “skilled” immigrants) has contributed to the sorry state Ontario’s healthcare finds itself in (to the extent that the province is now trying to locate foreign-trained nurses it’s ignored for years, to hire them. See here: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2 ... 35340.html). In any other country, it would be absurd to have foreign trained staff doing nothing while medical professionals are complaining about staff capacity. In Canada, the same medical professionals who’re complaining about being overworked, have long been proponents of keeping these foreign trained professionals out. I think it’s plainly evident that staff shortages are hurting Canadian healthcare more than anything else: buying hospital equipment is relatively easy; staffing it, isn’t.

Apparently Canadian doctors are paid more than Swiss doctors (https://medicfootprints.org/10-highest- ... r-doctors/ ), which probably explains the barriers targeting foreign trained staff. There’s no point having a Rolls Royce health care system if it breaks down as soon as it encounters uneven road. The ugly reality is that cancer patients are literally having their surgeries postponed today because of staffing issues. It’s not a universal healthcare problem.


1) I hope a more efficient management structure especially in Ontario is needed but there are funding gaps in the health care system especially with the changing demographics that will need to be addressed. Properly funding health care along with education, infrastructure and defense should be the biggest focus of government. I do agree the Canadian government focuses too much on protectionism in some sectors and that is something the should focus less on.

2) This doesn't apply to healthcare but business too, not being able to meet demand is just as bad as not having demand. They need more capacity than they have because there is no reason for Ontario to be in lockdown now. The load of Covid cases relative to population of Ontario is tragic and I can understand being blind sighted 2 year ago but this could have been fixed in the last two years. We should easily be able to handle double the numbers we have while keeping the economy open. Healthcare needs some degree of deadweight loss to be able to serve the public.

Perhaps we need to carefully implement private coverage in some capacity to alleviate the public system is its regulated enough to be able to serve the people and not just those with the most cash.

3) Agree 100%, assess the competence of foreign trained nurses and doctors and then if there are gaps in their knowledge and provide the training needed to get up to speed.

Taking doctors from elsewhere isn't really solving the problem, especially when it's a problem of many places that at global scale different places will just compete against each others for source of doctors and nurses.
And the cost issue is same no matter for public health care or private health care. You can't have enough capacity available and keep paying salary for tons of people sitting around only to use them 1 in 100 years, meaning many of the excess capcity wouldn't even be used even once in a people's working time.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:40 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
For those of you saying we need to triage. Quebec is doing this in a way, they will add a tax for the unvaccinated if they need hospital care for Covid.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal ... -1.6311054

This is on shaky ground as the right to healthcare is written in our constitution and if this is allowed then this can be applied to essentially any health factor.


Agree entirely with your other response. Here, I’ll just put two words forward: Notwithstanding Clause.

Yes, I say that somewhat facetiously, but the reality is that we do have ways of suspending Charter rights - at least temporarily (e.g. the clause, emergency legal acts and so on).

In theory we could use those to:

- mandate vaccines; or,
- deprioritize voluntarily unvaxxed folk for ICU treatment (i.e. not shave years of a vaccinated cancer patient’s life to cater to some political hothead’s questionable choices).

Ontario has consciously chosen not to go down that route. QC has, albeit with a camouflaged mandatory approach by way of financial coercion.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:56 pm

c933103 wrote:
Taking doctors from elsewhere isn't really solving the problem, especially when it's a problem of many places that at global scale different places will just compete against each others for source of doctors and nurses.
And the cost issue is same no matter for public health care or private health care. You can't have enough capacity available and keep paying salary for tons of people sitting around only to use them 1 in 100 years, meaning many of the excess capcity wouldn't even be used even once in a people's working time.


- It’s not about “taking” other people’s doctors as much as it is about harnessing the immigrants who’re already here. Canada has long had a problem with underemployment of skilled migrants (especially from scientific/technical fields.) It’s become such a common theme that there’s even a (not very good) movie about it (https://www.thestar.com/amp/entertainme ... abbie.html). As mentioned in my post, it’s come to the fore with the Ontario government now actively trying to get foreign-trained nurses who’re already living in Canada underutilized, to do what they’ve been trying to do for years - work in hospitals. Evidently took cancer patients going untreated for that light to switch on. I think a lot of people need to be held accountable for why it was allowed to get this bad in the first place.

- it’s true that there’s a - for lack of a better analogy - “just in time” approach to healthcare, but it’s equally true that some countries have robust enough healthcare systems to navigate this latest wave without Ontario levels of lockdown. Not sure if England is taking a huge gamble or not, but the NHS seems to be coping a lot better than most (all?) Canadian provinces. To the extent that it’s “different”, it does benefit somewhat from having BUPA capacity available; many Canadian provinces don’t have that type of release valve these days (normally the US, but crossing the border can be tricky). I haven’t been keeping a tab on Germany, but understand their ICU capacity is also very good, and still consistent with an efficient healthcare system.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:45 am

21 day time lag infections to deaths, unfortunately a tight correlation, looking to be worse than last winter in quantity of deaths:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/01 ... icron.html
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:01 am

ElPistolero wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Taking doctors from elsewhere isn't really solving the problem, especially when it's a problem of many places that at global scale different places will just compete against each others for source of doctors and nurses.
And the cost issue is same no matter for public health care or private health care. You can't have enough capacity available and keep paying salary for tons of people sitting around only to use them 1 in 100 years, meaning many of the excess capcity wouldn't even be used even once in a people's working time.


- It’s not about “taking” other people’s doctors as much as it is about harnessing the immigrants who’re already here. Canada has long had a problem with underemployment of skilled migrants (especially from scientific/technical fields.) It’s become such a common theme that there’s even a (not very good) movie about it (https://www.thestar.com/amp/entertainme ... abbie.html). As mentioned in my post, it’s come to the fore with the Ontario government now actively trying to get foreign-trained nurses who’re already living in Canada underutilized, to do what they’ve been trying to do for years - work in hospitals. Evidently took cancer patients going untreated for that light to switch on. I think a lot of people need to be held accountable for why it was allowed to get this bad in the first place.

- it’s true that there’s a - for lack of a better analogy - “just in time” approach to healthcare, but it’s equally true that some countries have robust enough healthcare systems to navigate this latest wave without Ontario levels of lockdown. Not sure if England is taking a huge gamble or not, but the NHS seems to be coping a lot better than most (all?) Canadian provinces. To the extent that it’s “different”, it does benefit somewhat from having BUPA capacity available; many Canadian provinces don’t have that type of release valve these days (normally the US, but crossing the border can be tricky). I haven’t been keeping a tab on Germany, but understand their ICU capacity is also very good, and still consistent with an efficient healthcare system.

Didn't NHS from UK deal with this by shortening off-duty time of infected staffs, and wasn't Germany having a relatively late start of Omicron wave and relatively early implementation of restrictions to flatten the curve? According to what I can recall from memory
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:30 am

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220112/d ... 40/029000c
Japan: Miyagi: Due to Omicron, real time reproduction number of corona in the prefecture have increased to 10.04.
Miyagi currently have 80.6% population 2-dose vaccinated according to NHK, 88.1% according to local news.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:24 pm

Hospitalizations in the USA up to 145k. We'll find out the time lag between cases and hospitalizations in the next few weeks.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

I already posted a link on the correlation on infection to death being 21 days for Omicron.

I really feel for the hospital workers. I feel for all the patients not able to see a doctor because the system is overwhelmed.

That chart lags, per this link we're above 155k:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-co ... NewsSearch

Locally, the hospitals are filling up, but below prior peak. That could be due to a good local vaccination rate or being later in the Omicron wave, we shall see:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/4-000 ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber
Late edit:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
The positivity rate of the USA is 38.8%. That just shows people cannot get tested. We don't even really know how bad this is. In other words, we have no idea of the hospital demand in a week or two. Se the link on the correlation to deaths, if deaths are a linear correlation to infections than hospitalizations will be too. This means some areas that are good today at keeping people alive will fail in a week or two when they are just too overloaded. :cry2: I hope everyone is safe.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:53 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... m-ema-says
EU EMA warned that giving out booster every 4 months could weaken immune systen reponse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... perts-warn
WHO say repeated boosters of original vaccine is unlikely to be suitable strategy against new variants
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:28 pm

77Phoebe wrote:
casinterest wrote:
77Phoebe wrote:

Unfortunately the tallies are not divided up into meaningful cross sections. The VAST VAST number of fatalities from Covid-19 are the one way or another are the nearly dead. The collateral damage for the 'Covid-19 measures' will affect the young disproportionately.. And they will be the poor sods paying for it.


You asked about deaths, and they are there.
Families that offer support to kids will help them out. Teachers will help them out in schools. This whole 'Covid-19 measurements' stick is disingenuous and wrong. How about all the kids that lost their parents and grandparents due to the fact that they couldn't or didn't get a vaccine?


AHH, you're one of those 'The only deaths that are directly caused by Covid-19 are important all the other problem caused by lockdowns and other pointless measures are utterly irrelevant.' people. Gotcha.

"Kid's will catch up if their parents and teachers help them." Dear God how utterly, utterly clueless. Of course the well off engaged kids in good schools will be fine, they always were going to be. What proportion of children in the US (for example) have parents that are unable or unwilling to help their children catch up? 25%? How's the US public school system? Robust? How are teachers meant to find time to 'help them out'?, it's just utter nonsense. And the most vulnerable will be the most affected.

If you think that we have not just caused massive, long term avoidable damage to our children by our actions over the last two years then I dispare. The loss of education will knock on to future generations. Jesus, kids don't even get it badly.

What kind of gotcha game are you playing ? We had a pandemic, and while you worry about kids education, the issue when we didn't have vaccines is that although kids are resillent, they are also the most socially interactive age group, and they can spread germs lighting quick. Saving lives and educating kids remotely was a good choice. As we have gone onwards to a time when vaccines are available, the kids have been in school with and without masks. And now due to that and a whole misinformed group of souls, we now have lighting quick transmission of a virus on it's 4th/'5th wave wreaking havoc though the world. Here locally we had to send schools remote, because their aren't enough teachers well enough to teach. Kids aren't getting to school because the bus drivers are sick, and teachers are quitting due to a host of issues.
So remote learning? Yes it was effective for all. And it was worthwhile to save lives and continue the education of the kids.

In person, always better, but the strains it is putting on the system will cause years of issues as their won't be enough teachers left.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
77Phoebe wrote:
casinterest wrote:

You asked about deaths, and they are there.
Families that offer support to kids will help them out. Teachers will help them out in schools. This whole 'Covid-19 measurements' stick is disingenuous and wrong. How about all the kids that lost their parents and grandparents due to the fact that they couldn't or didn't get a vaccine?


AHH, you're one of those 'The only deaths that are directly caused by Covid-19 are important all the other problem caused by lockdowns and other pointless measures are utterly irrelevant.' people. Gotcha.

"Kid's will catch up if their parents and teachers help them." Dear God how utterly, utterly clueless. Of course the well off engaged kids in good schools will be fine, they always were going to be. What proportion of children in the US (for example) have parents that are unable or unwilling to help their children catch up? 25%? How's the US public school system? Robust? How are teachers meant to find time to 'help them out'?, it's just utter nonsense. And the most vulnerable will be the most affected.

If you think that we have not just caused massive, long term avoidable damage to our children by our actions over the last two years then I dispare. The loss of education will knock on to future generations. Jesus, kids don't even get it badly.

What kind of gotcha game are you playing ? We had a pandemic, and while you worry about kids education, the issue when we didn't have vaccines is that although kids are resillent, they are also the most socially interactive age group, and they can spread germs lighting quick. Saving lives and educating kids remotely was a good choice. As we have gone onwards to a time when vaccines are available, the kids have been in school with and without masks. And now due to that and a whole misinformed group of souls, we now have lighting quick transmission of a virus on it's 4th/'5th wave wreaking havoc though the world. Here locally we had to send schools remote, because their aren't enough teachers well enough to teach. Kids aren't getting to school because the bus drivers are sick, and teachers are quitting due to a host of issues.
So remote learning? Yes it was effective for all. And it was worthwhile to save lives and continue the education of the kids.

In person, always better, but the strains it is putting on the system will cause years of issues as their won't be enough teachers left.


I think the school closures made sense up until August/September 2021 when we didn't have vaccines widely available. Now they are not to protect the kids but to protect the much more fearful staff and if you are scared wear a mask and/or get the vaccine. A risk free environment doesn't exist and trying to create what isn't possible will only end in frustration. We can take steps to minimize risk but it can never be eliminated. If you are vaccinated and mask up there is literally nothing else you can do to protect yourself outside of living in a bubble.

Kids are low risk and vaccines are available for 5+ so what sense does isolating them have now. Bring the vaccines to the schools would be a good starting point which was what was done for many of the vaccines I got were at school.

Outside of the valid claim that the staff shortages are the issue that a school cannot function, fair point there but that is a school by school issue and not a general issue.

This is my opinion but I am concerned that we get so worried about illness with kids in general today. Maybe we were all abused in the past but I remember as a kid getting sick constantly, sometimes back to back flu's, chickenpox and cold after cold. (Chickenpox is a non-issue as there is a vaccine) but after time with the same interactions I stopped getting sick because our immune system has learned how to fight these things and you get less sick as you get older.

I understand the increased risk for Covid but these actions I hope aren't taken on a mass scale when flu outbreaks happen or even future covid ones as this will be endemic going forward. This is a reality of human life that isn't going away.

I don't know how it is stateside but there is a debate here in Canada as the pediatric society is pushing back against the general public health advice and pushing for the schools to be open. They cite the risk to Covid is less than the mental health and well being of children. Open the schools and bring the vaccines to the schools, if parents protest then give the parent the benefit of the doubt as the school. You will get 80% of the kids vaccinated. If a mandate is needed later implement that clear rationale.

https://www.cp24.com/news/pediatrician- ... -1.5732019

On a larger note we need to have a risk stratified approach going forward as we need to let those who are vaccinated and lower risk re-enter society with little to no restrictions. If you are scared or high risk then you don't have to interact. I actually think the US, Europe, Australia and Israel are moving in this direction.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.5738198

This article states that 70% of the ICU beds in Ontario are taken up by unvaccinated people, hospitalizations are 55% unvaxxed to 45% vaxxed. This is despite a full non-essential lockdown and capacity restrictions before this. If it were 90%-10% or 99%-5% then the argument can be made that the vaccine is much more of a shield than it is. A significant amount of people getting admitted to the ICU have failing health and that is just the reality of life.

I am not sure that 100% vaccination rate would alleviate the strain on hospitals to a point where we can say that things are good.

We now generally accept that Covid will infect essentially everyone and if we took this a risk stratified approach and did what Sweden had been doing since the beginning would be have managed the same, better or worse? Had we invested more in early treatment would be further ahead?
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