flyguy89 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

People have “heard or don’t believe” that the virus can be contained, Caplan said, and a part of that problem is messaging.


I've posted enough links in this thread on the hospital crisis. Meh, people don't care.

Lightsaber

Is it messaging or just the reality of the situation? What country has been able to contain Omicron at this point? Netherlands is finally throwing in the towel with their ineffectual lockdown:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ne ... 022-01-14/

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6320150

New Zealand is doing alright but they are still doing the full 2 week quarantine and getting in even if you are an NZ citizen is very hard. Australia I believe is open if you are fully vaccinated and have a negative test.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... icron-risk

They have stated though if Omicron gets into the community they aren't going to lock down.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/new-zealan ... -1.5747375

Toenga wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

The attitude locally seems to be "everyone will get it." I know people who are sick with coronavirus fully intending to go to the DMV and other public places because what can you do? These are responsible people who have seen everyone else be irresponsible and not care, so they have stopped caring.

I believe this is fatigue. In particular, "why should I behave when others are not "
https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/a ... 469c16dd67

People have “heard or don’t believe” that the virus can be contained, Caplan said, and a part of that problem is messaging.


I've posted enough links in this thread on the hospital crisis. Meh, people don't care.

Lightsaber

Again your links to the situation in Colorado are of interest to me in NZ as a broadly comparable society but very much further advanced in an omicron outbreak.
Also very relevant here is the progress from a very similar state at the end of November to the current positions of the various Australian States especially NSW. NSW that radically departed from a previous containment strategy to "freedom" and is now suffering from unprecedented deaths and disruption to commerce and society. The only thing now being offered is that they are closer to the end, whatever that is, then they were before.

Here we are apprehensively waiting for all the Omicron cases arriving across our border to manifest as cases in our community.
In fact this has probably already occurred.
Yesterday our government signalled that this will trigger an immediate country wide elevation from our current orange control setting to the more rigourous red setting. Red is not a lockdown, but local lockdowns could be imposed as well as internal travel restrictions under this setting.
We have also been told to stock up supplies in case we are made to isolate, we will be expected to survive at home for a week or so without restocking.
But restaurants, and events can still occur subject to vaccination status checks, ultimate capacity, and density limitations.
Given the ultimate PCR laboratory testing capacity is limited RAT testing will become widespread and be free.
The government has currently 5 million RAT tests in stock, for our 5 million population. Not nearly enough I fear, and while many more millions are on order, the government is being cagey on expected delivery times.
The strategy is back to the very original "flatten the curve" a trade off, of peak surge, against surge duration, to hopefully remain within healthcare effective capacity.
Our vaccination centres are very busy delivering 3rd doses and 1st doses to 5 to 11 year olds as well as continuing with the original program.
Currently we have administered 8.85 million doses to our 5.1 million people at a current rate of 1% of the population per day, 51000 doses daily.
Basically all Pfizer.
And we are relitively well placed. Our vaccination rates are high, and with only 22 covid cases in hospital, 1 in ICU hospitals and their staff have had a period of respite, and staff have had an opportunity to have a summer holiday and partake in the seasonal festivities remarkably unrestricted.

Very interesting post. On the testing: For a family of 5, I went through 8 tests fast and it will be 12 before everyone can go back to work/school. I suggest 3 tests per person, not 1.

The hospitals having downtime is wonderful! If you've been following my posts on the Colorado hospitals, it goes to full throttle fast. My impression (opinion) is hospitals are quietly implementing crisis care in the ER early. Basically, save hospital capacity for only those that really need it. Since states are running out of capacity (see link).

https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/h ... -standards

Vaccines will help NZ a lot.

Good luck

In NSW, with a 93% 12+ double dosed population (30% of adults with 3 doses), daily new case data is no longer as accurate now there is a combination of formalised PCR test reporting and self reporting of positive RAT results (mandated, but with greater flex in timeframe).

However, it does appear that new cases, over 90% of which are Omicron, are declining. The last two days have seen a small decline in hospitilisations and ICU, although there were 39 deaths, plus 7 earlier deaths reclassified as Covid.

A glass half full person may start to see a wave passing, although the summer school holidays will finish after next week and there will likely be new transmission when kids go back to face to face schooling (cohort managed and RAT requirements).

I'm currently watching my Arizona Wildcats take on Stanford in Palo Alto. Inconceivably, we're back to having no fans in the arena. Despite the availability of masks, testing, and vaccines, I just can't believe that we're back to the point where we can't have people attend a basketball game. It's extremely discouraging.

mke717spotter wrote:

I'm currently watching my Arizona Wildcats take on Stanford in Palo Alto. Inconceivably, we're back to having no fans in the arena. Despite the availability of masks, testing, and vaccines, I just can't believe that we're back to the point where we can't have people attend a basketball game. It's extremely discouraging.

I'm guessing that this is the school making this call and not the state or municipality.

California as a whole doesn't dare do this as LA is set to host the superbowl on February 13th. They restrict capacity limits at stadiums then Superbowl 56 is going to Dallas within the hour. That is a lot of lost money for LA county and the state.

For whatever reason universities and colleges have the strictest rules which really doesn't make sense because besides children young adults 18-22 who have to be fully vaccinated to attend are the least vulnerable from covid.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -seriously

California hospitals now have a multi-hour wait to get into beds. Everyone is accepting this is mild and just living life how they want from my personal observation.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ornia.html
New daily COVID-19 hospitalization rates in the U.S. have risen 42 percent over the last two weeks, with California seeing a 101 percent increase during that period, according to HHS data tracked by The New York Times. Additionally, the week of Jan. 8, California was averaging close to 47,000 visits in its emergency rooms daily for all reasons, compared with about 32,000 a year earlier, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing data from the California Department of Public Health.

We're near the end. I wish people could behave two weeks to spread this out so the hospitals weren't so overloaded. Cest la vie.

I speculate that hospital occupancy, while at an all time peak, is almost flat because of crisis levels of care. Every doctor I personally note working the ERs will have a hard time sleeping as they are sending home so many patients who previously been hospitalized, but there just is no choice. Any yet there are still patients waiting hours to be admitted. That means the coronavirus wards must be sending patients home early. I speculate as every doctor I know working the coronavirus wards is so burnt out right now they have stopped communicating.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

mke717spotter wrote:

I'm currently watching my Arizona Wildcats take on Stanford in Palo Alto. Inconceivably, we're back to having no fans in the arena. Despite the availability of masks, testing, and vaccines, I just can't believe that we're back to the point where we can't have people attend a basketball game. It's extremely discouraging.

I'm disappointed the hospitals are full again.

Out of a capacity of 40 patients, my favorite dashboard shows 61 hospitalized, 77% hospitalized are unvacs.
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

Late edit:
California hospitals are expected to be in bad shape for 4 to 6 more weeks (there just isn't enough testing capacity locally to know the caseload. People are giving up trying to be tested because of the waits. The local large testing center is having to pause testing as they have a six day backlog of tests to process per what they told neighbors when they were sampled/tested).
https://www.sfexaminer.com/findings/cal ... 4-6-weeks/

Yes, omicron dropping at the time we were vaxxed and PCR testing to keep Delta out screwed NSW.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9a8c3 ... 3c8?page=2
Doctors and advisors in some Japanese hospitals comment on Omicron, one of them claimed "Number of death case is so few that it cannot be expressed in percentages" and another claim "From UK research, 295k infected but only 30 died. Considering the probably large amount of asymptomatic infection, it can be said the death rate is less than 0.01%"

Toenga wrote:

NSW has about 1.5x the population of NZ but in 3x the area.

This figure barely matter when both NSW and NZ have very uneven distribution of population across their land

Great data points on vaccination.

https://acasignups.net/22/01/24/which-i ... data-point

Here's the updated county-level case rates across all 50 states +DC, broken out into 10 roughly equal populations by 2-dose vaccination rate (booster data wasn't available as of this writing):

Covid Case rates by percentage of the population that is vaccinated. (Even across the board).



Death rates per 100k




Shows that the vaccines are very effective at lowering the death rate.

Since population and restrictions are comparable, it is easy to see you are 1 month behind us (norway) on the Omicron curve.

The restrictions you list stopped the Delta outbreak we had before christmas, but have absolutely no chance against Omicron. It is impossible to stop.
You are in summer season, though, so it will not be as «bad» as here, although I guess no one knows exactlu how season plays with Omicron.
We are now at about 20,000 daily cases. The real number is much higher.

Toenga wrote:

NZ now has Omicron transmission in the community, centred on Auckland, accounting for about 1/3 of the cases over the last two days. Today 10 out 25 cases the rest delta. But with an Omicron case attending a huge wedding, estimated 500 guests and the Auckland marathon running events in the weekend, estimated 8000 plus competitors run under the comparatively soft orange setting things may well escalate rapidly.
Midnight Sunday the control level was escalated to red, not a lockdown or limitation on domestic travel but largely ruling out further large events
Today the masking requirements were upgraded. No longer acceptable bandanas or scarfs. Masks are now required in all indoor spaces, except private houses except while actually consuming food and beverages. And where staff have to wear masks they must wear at least surgical grade masks.
In the meantime PCR testing will remain the prime testing method, and capacity will be upgraded from a baseline capacity of 39000 daily tests to 58000 daily tests .This is for a population of 5.1 million.
As well 80 million RAT tests are on order for supplementary testing, with 5 million now in stock and by the end of February 14 million should have been delivered.

Covid back in the community is a huge incentive to boost vaccination rates with booster rates now rising nearly 3% a day. Neatly 57000 bosters delivered today. 1st 2nd and child rates have also risen so that nearly 75000 were delivered yesterday. Yes equivalent to nearly 1.5-% of our entire population!
An interesting assesment of the NZ situation by a NZ epidemiologist now working in Australia .
Delta forms about 1/3 of hospitalisations and 1/2 of deaths in NSW.
With delta now virtually eliminated in NZ and our now enhanced control measures hopefully this situation will be avoided here.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460 ... emiologist

Still, apprehension widespread here. It was hugely better to be in the covid improving situation up to last weekend then now to be placed back into a deteriorating situation.

US hospitalizations are finally starting to go down, but down just enough to create hope.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

The case load is barely down:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

We'll have to see if that is due to the difficulty of getting tested or a real downturn in cases within a week.

Lightsaber

casinterest wrote:

Great data points on vaccination.

https://acasignups.net/22/01/24/which-i ... data-point

Here's the updated county-level case rates across all 50 states +DC, broken out into 10 roughly equal populations by 2-dose vaccination rate (booster data wasn't available as of this writing):

Covid Case rates by percentage of the population that is vaccinated. (Even across the board).



Death rates per 100k



Shows that the vaccines are very effective at lowering the death rate.

I think these charts show that vaccination is certainly more effective than not as it relates to death. There are two other points that these charts seem to indicate:

1. Even in the counties with <44% vaccinated, only .14% of the population has passed away in those counties. I could see someone using this as justification to NOT get vaccinated.

2. The spread of the virus is pretty similar across the board. This could potentially indicate that being vaccinated doesn't slow the spread, however, this is also ignoring that many people are asymptomatic or don't get tested.

Thanks for posting.

Respectfully,

mah584jr

mah584jr wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Great data points on vaccination.

https://acasignups.net/22/01/24/which-i ... data-point

Here's the updated county-level case rates across all 50 states +DC, broken out into 10 roughly equal populations by 2-dose vaccination rate (booster data wasn't available as of this writing):

Covid Case rates by percentage of the population that is vaccinated. (Even across the board).



Death rates per 100k



Shows that the vaccines are very effective at lowering the death rate.

I think these charts show that vaccination is certainly more effective than not as it relates to death. There are two other points that these charts seem to indicate:

1. Even in the counties with <44% vaccinated, only .14% of the population has passed away in those counties. I could see someone using this as justification to NOT get vaccinated.

2. The spread of the virus is pretty similar across the board. This could potentially indicate that being vaccinated doesn't slow the spread, however, this is also ignoring that many people are asymptomatic or don't get tested.

Thanks for posting.

Respectfully,

mah584jr

1. For Items 1 , remember these stats are only since June 30,2021. They do not include the first waves. This is the wave where everyone should have already been double dosed. It also does not include the full tally for the current wave, which is still killing people. \
2. Many people are asymptomatic this time , even amongst the vaccinated. I know of families where 1 of 4 got it, and 3 out of 4 got it, half tested positive with no symptoms. and out of a rough estimate of 20 people, only one said it was bad enough for 3 days, and that person had other health issues..

This wave will probably spread far enough that we may finally see the end of Covid as a dire hospital threat. There may be more variants, but i expect them to become more like the common cold for most.

Putting this here. The FDA in the USA has removed their authorization for MonoClonal antibody treatments.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fd ... -rcna13414

The regulatory move was expected because both drugmakers had said the infusion drugs are less able to target omicron because of its mutations. Still, the federal action could trigger pushback from some Republican governors who have continued promoting the drugs against the advice of health experts.

I do expect that some of the Governors have misgivings, but if the manufacturers themselves have said they aren't effective, why keep giving people sugar pills?

https://www.cityam.com/new-covid-varian ... ron-aside/
BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron is creating a new peak among countries like Norway which have previously passed their original Omicron infection peak. The BA.2 variant is also reportedly harder to detect by PCR tests.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-t ... t-omicron/
Israel test found out that 4th dose vaccine do increase antibody level, but not good enough against Omicron
https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-mi ... -over-60s/
However, a week later they also claim it provide 2x protection against infection and 3x protection against severe disease among elderly
The report didn't come with actual number, but let say if 3-dose boosted can provide 70% protection against infection and 90% protection against severe disease, then 2x and 3x protection would mean 85% protection against infection and 97% against severe disease.

The report also mentioned, given the uselessness of vaccine against coronavirus infection and spread, they are considering to scrap the vaccine pass system.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-c ... s-peaking/
This is while Israel's case count this wave still not yet peaked although expected close to it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 022-01-25/
Meanwhile, Pfizer is now starting Omicron-adopted vaccine clinical trial.
The product is expected to come out by end of March
Amid Europe's latest stand wanting the vaccine to pass clinical trial before being approved, despite Pfizer/Biontech's original hope that the variant vaccine as an variant of the original one shouldn't require such trials.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/shutoken/////news ... 0124b.html
Japan: With the rapid spread of Omicron, some medical facilities have been overloaded with providing testing that they have to give up on providing booster vaccination, against their original plan
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ed739 ... 544a821971
And with the fast spread of Omicron across Japan, test kits (both PCR and antigen test) are in short supply, hence the government allow doctors declare symptomatic close contacts as infected without taking the tests
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/c3604 ... 096d7e8781
Also in Japan: As Omicron increase spread among children (Japan have only recently approved vaccine for age 5-11 in the past few days, and only planned to start vaccination campaign in March), doctors say most of them have mild symptoms, and most of the concern and inquiries they have received are about the stress of being forced to isolate from others due to being tested positive rather than the symptom itself.
Note the article also mentioned that vaccination rate among 5-11 in the US is still just around 15% now.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/93c0c ... ffc02ab472
In Okinawa, there are some physicians and parents protesting the planned vaccination campaign for kids down to 5, urge the government stop giving vaccine to children before safety and efficiency of them are being verified.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/06e26 ... aa2625516f
On the other hand there are doctor warning that increased infection among children could mean more getting long term side effect, like the Kawasaki-disease-like-symptoms

The FDA has rescinded EUA authorizations for two monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron and Eli Lily due to ineffectiveness against the Omicron variant:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... e6eaa92679

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Monday rescinded its authorization for Covid-19 monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly after those treatments proved ineffective against the omicron variant, over a month after some hospitals voluntarily decided to stop offering the drugs.

ThePointblank wrote:

The FDA has rescinded EUA authorizations for two monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron and Eli Lily due to ineffectiveness against the Omicron variant:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... e6eaa92679

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Monday rescinded its authorization for Covid-19 monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly after those treatments proved ineffective against the omicron variant, over a month after some hospitals voluntarily decided to stop offering the drugs.

Isn't there still non-zero non-onicron patients out there?

ThePointblank wrote:

The FDA has rescinded EUA authorizations for two monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron and Eli Lily due to ineffectiveness against the Omicron variant:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... e6eaa92679

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Monday rescinded its authorization for Covid-19 monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly after those treatments proved ineffective against the omicron variant, over a month after some hospitals voluntarily decided to stop offering the drugs.

Monoclonal antibodies were heavily promoted by Gov. Ron DeSantis, where his friend works at Regeneron.

c933103 wrote:

ThePointblank wrote:

The FDA has rescinded EUA authorizations for two monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron and Eli Lily due to ineffectiveness against the Omicron variant:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... e6eaa92679

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Monday rescinded its authorization for Covid-19 monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly after those treatments proved ineffective against the omicron variant, over a month after some hospitals voluntarily decided to stop offering the drugs.

Isn't there still non-zero non-onicron patients out there?

Yes, although the proportion is declining in most places. The Chief Health Officer in my home state commented last week that Omicron was over 90% of new infections and increasing.

https://yns.page.link/iuBaE
https://m.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81%E8% ... D%E5%90%A6

Hong Kong government try to push vaccination at elder homes by disregarding famoly objection against vaccination, as previous efforts to push vaccination at elderly home by dispatching vaccines right into elder home and intended to vaccinate everyone except those who themselves or their family oppose was meet with the end result of only 20-something-% elderly being successfully vaccinated.
The current 1-dose vaccinated rate in cate facilities in Hong Kong is 22%, amid the city-wide vaccination rate being 78%.
The proposed policy also includes forbidding anyone from being newly admitted into care facilities without first being vaccinated, banning unvaccinated in elder home from meeting any visitors, as well as restricting unvaccinated residents at elderly home from leaving their own room for any public facilities or halls inside elderly home.

Kent350787 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

ThePointblank wrote:

The FDA has rescinded EUA authorizations for two monoclonal antibody treatments made by Regeneron and Eli Lily due to ineffectiveness against the Omicron variant:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmi ... e6eaa92679

Isn't there still non-zero non-onicron patients out there?

Yes, although the proportion is declining in most places. The Chief Health Officer in my home state commented last week that Omicron was over 90% of new infections and increasing.

IMO the remaining stocks of these treatment should be throw as those still infected with non-omicron even if they are relatively mild, so as to minimize the needs, and if needed minimize the time of them staying in hospitals, given that they aren't useful anymore for others. Doing so will probably help speed up the displacement process against older, more severe variants

COPENHAGEN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which is dominant in Denmark, appears more contagious than the more common BA.1 sub-lineage, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said on Wednesday in a national address.

"There is no evidence that the BA.2 variant causes more disease, but it must be more contagious," Heunicke told a news conference.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba ... 022-01-26/

I have noticed that after falling sharply in UK, 7 day average infection numbers stopped falling a few days ago:

Jan 05 - 182K
Jan 12 - 146K
Jan 19 - 92K

Jan 20 - 92K
Jan 21 - 91K
Jan 22 - 91K
Jan 23 - 91K
Jan 24 - 92K
Jan 25 - 92K
Jan 26 - 91K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Is this likely due to a more transmissible BA.2 subvariant displacing the BA.1 subvariant? I cannot think of any other explanation for a sudden stabilisation in UK 7 day average infection numbers.

art wrote:

COPENHAGEN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which is dominant in Denmark, appears more contagious than the more common BA.1 sub-lineage, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said on Wednesday in a national address.

"There is no evidence that the BA.2 variant causes more disease, but it must be more contagious," Heunicke told a news conference.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba ... 022-01-26/

I have noticed that after falling sharply in UK, 7 day average infection numbers stopped falling a few days ago:

Jan 05 - 182K
Jan 12 - 146K
Jan 19 - 92K

Jan 20 - 92K
Jan 21 - 91K
Jan 22 - 91K
Jan 23 - 91K
Jan 24 - 92K
Jan 25 - 92K
Jan 26 - 91K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Is this likely due to a more transmissible BA.2 subvariant displacing the BA.1 subvariant? I cannot think of any other explanation for a sudden stabilisation in UK 7 day average infection numbers.

Omicron IIRC has a much shorter incubation period and the UK has dropped essentially all restrictions which even though done recently will probably be enough to have an effect already. We are still in the thick of winter and the baseline of infections is likely going to be higher until around April.

Covid if anything seems to have a largely seasonal aspect to it and this has happened with cold and flu season.

StarAC17 wrote:

art wrote:

COPENHAGEN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which is dominant in Denmark, appears more contagious than the more common BA.1 sub-lineage, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said on Wednesday in a national address.

"There is no evidence that the BA.2 variant causes more disease, but it must be more contagious," Heunicke told a news conference.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba ... 022-01-26/

I have noticed that after falling sharply in UK, 7 day average infection numbers stopped falling a few days ago:

Jan 05 - 182K
Jan 12 - 146K
Jan 19 - 92K

Jan 20 - 92K
Jan 21 - 91K
Jan 22 - 91K
Jan 23 - 91K
Jan 24 - 92K
Jan 25 - 92K
Jan 26 - 91K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Is this likely due to a more transmissible BA.2 subvariant displacing the BA.1 subvariant? I cannot think of any other explanation for a sudden stabilisation in UK 7 day average infection numbers.

Omicron IIRC has a much shorter incubation period and the UK has dropped essentially all restrictions which even though done recently will probably be enough to have an effect already. We are still in the thick of winter and the baseline of infections is likely going to be higher until around April.

Covid if anything seems to have a largely seasonal aspect to it and this has happened with cold and flu season.

I also wonder if the numbers were so high since Omicron can basically rip through the Cities at breakneck speed, and it is now settling into a steady state suburban/rural spread.

casinterest wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

art wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba ... 022-01-26/

I have noticed that after falling sharply in UK, 7 day average infection numbers stopped falling a few days ago:

Jan 05 - 182K
Jan 12 - 146K
Jan 19 - 92K

Jan 20 - 92K
Jan 21 - 91K
Jan 22 - 91K
Jan 23 - 91K
Jan 24 - 92K
Jan 25 - 92K
Jan 26 - 91K

Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Is this likely due to a more transmissible BA.2 subvariant displacing the BA.1 subvariant? I cannot think of any other explanation for a sudden stabilisation in UK 7 day average infection numbers.

Omicron IIRC has a much shorter incubation period and the UK has dropped essentially all restrictions which even though done recently will probably be enough to have an effect already. We are still in the thick of winter and the baseline of infections is likely going to be higher until around April.

Covid if anything seems to have a largely seasonal aspect to it and this has happened with cold and flu season.

I also wonder if the numbers were so high since Omicron can basically rip through the Cities at breakneck speed, and it is now settling into a steady state suburban/rural spread.

I think the opening up exposed quite a few more people, creating a steady burn rate.

Personally, I think the "seasonal hope" will be just that, a hope. Omicron went through South Africa and now Australia during their summers. UV (sunlight) does kill the virus. What matters is indoor time; it could be for air-conditioning or to keep warm, the grouping of people will be higher during the local "indoor season."

I'm personally bummed vaccines do not slow transmission more.

My favorite dashboard has the hospitals over capacity and getting worse. Hopefully a vaccine that slows transmission is developed.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

StarAC17 wrote:

Omicron IIRC has a much shorter incubation period and the UK has dropped essentially all restrictions which even though done recently will probably be enough to have an effect already. We are still in the thick of winter and the baseline of infections is likely going to be higher until around April.

Covid if anything seems to have a largely seasonal aspect to it and this has happened with cold and flu season.

I also wonder if the numbers were so high since Omicron can basically rip through the Cities at breakneck speed, and it is now settling into a steady state suburban/rural spread.

I think the opening up exposed quite a few more people, creating a steady burn rate.

Personally, I think the "seasonal hope" will be just that, a hope. Omicron went through South Africa and now Australia during their summers. UV (sunlight) does kill the virus. What matters is indoor time; it could be for air-conditioning or to keep warm, the grouping of people will be higher during the local "indoor season."

I'm personally bummed vaccines do not slow transmission more.

My favorite dashboard has the hospitals over capacity and getting worse. Hopefully a vaccine that slows transmission is developed.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

This article kind of explains why the covid vaccines are poor at preventing transmission but very good at protecting against severe illness and death. The vaccines produce antibody and T-cell responses and IgG antibody ones that prevent the systemic effects of Covid and those systemic events starting with the lower respiratory tract and the other vital organs. Most if not all people who die from Covid it is because of infections to the greater body and/or the lower respiratory systems causing pneumonia and cytokine storms which the vaccines can defend against.

This is because the vaccine was injected in the deltoid like most vaccines. The drawback is that the mucosal immune system is not stimulated by vaccination and fortunately infection of the upper respiratory tract is merely an inconvenience. The drawback is the viral loads in the upper respiratory tract can be the same in a vaccinated and unvaccinated person, thus there is no real mitigation for transmission with current vaccines.

What would be needed for a transmission reducing vaccine is an oral or nasal vaccine to stimulate a response in this region of the body.

The current vaccines elicit anti–spike IgG as well as T cell responses that can be detected in peripheral blood. However, there is a paucity of data on whether these intramuscular vaccines elicit respiratory tract–specific immune responses such as generation of tissue-resident memory B cells (10) or T cells (11). In fact, this is highly unlikely. Lessons from conjugated Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccines show strong effects in reducing meningitis and, to a certain extent, pneumonia because of S. pneumoniae serotypes in the vaccine (12). However, these vaccines do not completely prevent nasal colonization by S. pneumoniae (13). Prior clinical experience with the anti–respiratory syncytial virus (anti-RSV) monoclonal antibody (an IgG1 isotype) had little effect on RSV infection of the upper respiratory tract but prevented RSV hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection (14). Similarly, the seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine delivered intramuscularly protects individuals against acute respiratory illness and is associated with high levels of virus-neutralizing serum antibodies, but does not block viral transmission as observed in cohorts that included household contacts (15). On this basis, we would predict that systemic IgG would have little effect on nasal infection, nasal carriage, or, more importantly, nasal shedding of virus. Hence, vaccination with the currently approved vaccines will not eliminate the need to continue some mitigation procedures such as mask wearing and social distancing in high-density-contact scenarios if high vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity are not reached (16).

https://www.jci.org/articles/view/151186

StarAC17 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

casinterest wrote:

I also wonder if the numbers were so high since Omicron can basically rip through the Cities at breakneck speed, and it is now settling into a steady state suburban/rural spread.

I think the opening up exposed quite a few more people, creating a steady burn rate.

Personally, I think the "seasonal hope" will be just that, a hope. Omicron went through South Africa and now Australia during their summers. UV (sunlight) does kill the virus. What matters is indoor time; it could be for air-conditioning or to keep warm, the grouping of people will be higher during the local "indoor season."

I'm personally bummed vaccines do not slow transmission more.

My favorite dashboard has the hospitals over capacity and getting worse. Hopefully a vaccine that slows transmission is developed.

https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Lightsaber

This article kind of explains why the covid vaccines are poor at preventing transmission but very good at protecting against severe illness and death. The vaccines produce antibody and T-cell responses and IgG antibody ones that prevent the systemic effects of Covid and those systemic events starting with the lower respiratory tract and the other vital organs. Most if not all people who die from Covid it is because of infections to the greater body and/or the lower respiratory systems causing pneumonia and cytokine storms which the vaccines can defend against.

This is because the vaccine was injected in the deltoid like most vaccines. The drawback is that the mucosal immune system is not stimulated by vaccination and fortunately infection of the upper respiratory tract is merely an inconvenience. The drawback is the viral loads in the upper respiratory tract can be the same in a vaccinated and unvaccinated person, thus there is no real mitigation for transmission with current vaccines.

What would be needed for a transmission reducing vaccine is an oral or nasal vaccine to stimulate a response in this region of the body.

The current vaccines elicit anti–spike IgG as well as T cell responses that can be detected in peripheral blood. However, there is a paucity of data on whether these intramuscular vaccines elicit respiratory tract–specific immune responses such as generation of tissue-resident memory B cells (10) or T cells (11). In fact, this is highly unlikely. Lessons from conjugated Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccines show strong effects in reducing meningitis and, to a certain extent, pneumonia because of S. pneumoniae serotypes in the vaccine (12). However, these vaccines do not completely prevent nasal colonization by S. pneumoniae (13). Prior clinical experience with the anti–respiratory syncytial virus (anti-RSV) monoclonal antibody (an IgG1 isotype) had little effect on RSV infection of the upper respiratory tract but prevented RSV hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection (14). Similarly, the seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine delivered intramuscularly protects individuals against acute respiratory illness and is associated with high levels of virus-neutralizing serum antibodies, but does not block viral transmission as observed in cohorts that included household contacts (15). On this basis, we would predict that systemic IgG would have little effect on nasal infection, nasal carriage, or, more importantly, nasal shedding of virus. Hence, vaccination with the currently approved vaccines will not eliminate the need to continue some mitigation procedures such as mask wearing and social distancing in high-density-contact scenarios if high vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity are not reached (16).

https://www.jci.org/articles/view/151186

Really Great Information. Thank you. This explains a lot of what i have seen with people I know, and why Asthma sufferers seem to suffer the worst symptoms of the Upper Respiratory infections.

A little bit of info on omicron developments...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ariant-ba2

- 98.8% of sequenced COVID-19 infections worldwide are reported to be omicron
- BA.2 represents roughly 82% of cases in Denmark, 9% in the UK and 8% in the US
- Danish health officials estimate that BA.2 may be 1.5 times more transmissible than BA.1
- UK Health Security Agency suggests that household transmission is higher among contacts of people infected with BA.2 (13.4%) compared with other Omicron cases (10.3%)

I guess we should expect COVID-19 cases to rise in UK and US.

art wrote:

A little bit of info on omicron developments...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ariant-ba2

- 98.8% of sequenced COVID-19 infections worldwide are reported to be omicron
- BA.2 represents roughly 82% of cases in Denmark, 9% in the UK and 8% in the US
- Danish health officials estimate that BA.2 may be 1.5 times more transmissible than BA.1
- UK Health Security Agency suggests that household transmission is higher among contacts of people infected with BA.2 (13.4%) compared with other Omicron cases (10.3%)

I guess we should expect COVID-19 cases to rise in UK and US.

There is as much chance of the official confirmed cases around the world to be correct (370 million at the time of writing this), as there is of me winning the lottery in three different countries on the same weekend, having a meteorite fall into my house while I was watching Vatican City win the World Cup on TV, but walking outside just before the rock hit, only to get hit by lighting by the sidewalk and die, but have Jesus Christ come down in a UFO to revive me and tell me that I am Superman and that Lex Luthor sent the meteorite to try kill me.

I would say that at least 1/3 of the world's population has been infected by now, perhaps as high as 3/5.

Derico wrote:

art wrote:

A little bit of info on omicron developments...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ariant-ba2

- 98.8% of sequenced COVID-19 infections worldwide are reported to be omicron
- BA.2 represents roughly 82% of cases in Denmark, 9% in the UK and 8% in the US
- Danish health officials estimate that BA.2 may be 1.5 times more transmissible than BA.1
- UK Health Security Agency suggests that household transmission is higher among contacts of people infected with BA.2 (13.4%) compared with other Omicron cases (10.3%)

I guess we should expect COVID-19 cases to rise in UK and US.

There is as much chance of the official confirmed cases around the world to be correct (370 million at the time of writing this), as there is of me winning the lottery in three different countries on the same weekend, having a meteorite fall into my house while I was watching Vatican City win the World Cup on TV, but walking outside just before the rock hit, only to get hit by lighting by the sidewalk and die, but have Jesus Christ come down in a UFO to revive me and tell me that I am Superman and that Lex Luthor sent the meteorite to try kill me.

I would say that at least 1/3 of the world's population has been infected by now, perhaps as high as 3/5.

Case count isn't infection count.
Compared to pass epidemic, probably only those severe enough patients would be counted, this time we mainly use genetic diagnosis to determine a case, and many of the cases wouldn't otherwise be counted as a case in previous pandemic.
But such incomplete adaption of new capability of identifying the virus make the metric even more meaningless as they cannot be compared and is not universally adopted

From 31 January 2022, the Department of Health will move all COVID-19 case reporting to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/new-c ... nuary-2022

I have logged over 2100 pieces of data re: daily UK cases, deaths and recoveries over the last 2 years and now they change the basis on which they measure the data so I can no longer analyse those data and future data on a like for like basis. Brilliant!

Why change the way things are measured? If it works, don't fix it!

art wrote:

From 31 January 2022, the Department of Health will move all COVID-19 case reporting to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/new-c ... nuary-2022

I have logged over 2100 pieces of data re: daily UK cases, deaths and recoveries over the last 2 years and now they change the basis on which they measure the data so I can no longer analyse those data and future data on a like for like basis. Brilliant!

Why change the way things are measured? If it works, don't fix it!

My relative in the hospital is seeing repeat customers with Omicron. All unvaccinated. All with one specific comobidity. However, only a handful. But it looks like reinfections are a thing that needs to be added.

lightsaber wrote:

art wrote:

From 31 January 2022, the Department of Health will move all COVID-19 case reporting to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.

https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/new-c ... nuary-2022

I have logged over 2100 pieces of data re: daily UK cases, deaths and recoveries over the last 2 years and now they change the basis on which they measure the data so I can no longer analyse those data and future data on a like for like basis. Brilliant!

Why change the way things are measured? If it works, don't fix it!

My relative in the hospital is seeing repeat customers with Omicron. All unvaccinated. All with one specific comobidity. However, only a handful. But it looks like reinfections are a thing that needs to be added.

If that is a potential differentiator between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated then this should be studied. With the Omicron's very potent transmissibility and very mild symptoms, people start to have considerable doubts over the benefits/effectiveness of the current vaccines against Omicron. Of course this should change when the Omicron vaccine comes out next month.

Denmark will scrap most of its pandemic restrictions this week as the country says COVID-19 is no longer “a socially critical disease”.

Copenhagen has in recent weeks seen more than 50,000 daily cases on average while the number of people in hospital intensive care units has dropped.

Despite the surge in Omicron variant cases, the high vaccination rate has prevented a large strain on the health system.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/01/cov ... into-force

Is Denmark just being realistic - it is too contagious to contain? I am coming to the view that trying to do that creates far more collateral damage (social and economic) than the damage COVID-19 itself inflicts.

What really confuses me is when did the narrative shift?

Wasn't it originally "this type of virus mutates a lot, we need to lock down now (2 weeks to flatten the curve) and give hospitals a chance to prepare themselves"?

The vaccines were always going to help blunt the effects but we would never be able to get rid of it forever?

That's what I remember hearing, and it 100% made sense, which is why I'm puzzled to see so many people still very gung ho about locking down and having hope we'll vaccinate the world past COVID

We need to move on. We needed to a year ago. Nothing says we can't do common sense, directed and well throught-out measures here and there. But yeah, the social/economic/cultural/mental damage is WAY worse than a flu with a somewhat higher death rate. IMO.

I feel the worst for kids at certain ages that are at very critical points of social development and aren't getting it. I'd say that alone is worth the risk to open up at the expense of some others.

Deaths isn't the only metric, it's not the end all be all...

DeltaMD90 wrote:

What really confuses me is when did the narrative shift?

Wasn't it originally "this type of virus mutates a lot, we need to lock down now (2 weeks to flatten the curve) and give hospitals a chance to prepare themselves"?

The vaccines were always going to help blunt the effects but we would never be able to get rid of it forever?

That's what I remember hearing, and it 100% made sense, which is why I'm puzzled to see so many people still very gung ho about locking down and having hope we'll vaccinate the world past COVID

We need to move on. We needed to a year ago. Nothing says we can't do common sense, directed and well throught-out measures here and there. But yeah, the social/economic/cultural/mental damage is WAY worse than a flu with a somewhat higher death rate. IMO.

I feel the worst for kids at certain ages that are at very critical points of social development and aren't getting it. I'd say that alone is worth the risk to open up at the expense of some others.

Deaths isn't the only metric, it's not the end all be all...

I think the conversation is shifting. Most of my associates and I that have been vaccinated are done with the lockdowns. I think this Omicron wave once it subsides will be the end of the lockdowns unless something unforeseen happens. The next wave will be the one where anyone that was didn't vaccinate and didn't get some sort of immunity, will be hit on the full reopening. It appears that "spring break" will probably coincide with that time period.

Francoflier wrote:

art wrote:

Is Denmark just being realistic - it is too contagious to contain? I am coming to the view that trying to do that creates far more collateral damage (social and economic) than the damage COVID-19 itself inflicts.

I think that's a foregone conclusion by now. Most nations couldn't control Delta or any of the previous variants, much less Omicron.
If Denmark sees no healthcare capacity issue, then it's the only logical thing to do since, as you say, we're creating more damage than good with prevention measures at this stage, at least in largely vaccinated nations.

It's probably wise to maintain some of the softer measures during peaks however, like masking in crowded places. Vaccine mandates should also remain if we don't want the next waves to create issues again.

I think most of Australia has moved somewhere near this position as well, with talk about opening up for tourists again in the next couple of months. Western Australia still has strong restrictions around entry (it is easier for me to get to Perth, Scotland from Sydney than to Perth, Western Australia), but even that Government is talking about border opening with Omicron brewing (but no super-spreader events to date).

We still have vaccine mandates across a range of industries, and return to face to face schooling in the two largest states includes RAT/lateral flow surveillance testing. Indoor masks are still required, but hospitalisations appear to have at least plateaued.

casinterest wrote:

DeltaMD90 wrote:

What really confuses me is when did the narrative shift?

Wasn't it originally "this type of virus mutates a lot, we need to lock down now (2 weeks to flatten the curve) and give hospitals a chance to prepare themselves"?

The vaccines were always going to help blunt the effects but we would never be able to get rid of it forever?

That's what I remember hearing, and it 100% made sense, which is why I'm puzzled to see so many people still very gung ho about locking down and having hope we'll vaccinate the world past COVID

We need to move on. We needed to a year ago. Nothing says we can't do common sense, directed and well throught-out measures here and there. But yeah, the social/economic/cultural/mental damage is WAY worse than a flu with a somewhat higher death rate. IMO.

I feel the worst for kids at certain ages that are at very critical points of social development and aren't getting it. I'd say that alone is worth the risk to open up at the expense of some others.

Deaths isn't the only metric, it's not the end all be all...

I think the conversation is shifting. Most of my associates and I that have been vaccinated are done with the lockdowns. I think this Omicron wave once it subsides will be the end of the lockdowns unless something unforeseen happens. The next wave will be the one where anyone that was didn't vaccinate and didn't get some sort of immunity, will be hit on the full reopening. It appears that "spring break" will probably coincide with that time period.

The conversation has shifted, bummer the hospitals are still so full:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

The way the hospitals have adapted has been to not admit most patients. Bummer that seems to be raising deaths:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

We need to prioritize care for non-covid patients. How to fairly do so?

I see people routinely walking about coughing now Well, I guess no one cares and we just pretend everyone over age 5 is fully vaccinated? I ask as I see no reason to protect people who won't protect themselves.

There will be more waves. I talk to my relatives working the coronavirus wards and they say who is ending up in the wards and it is 84% unvaccinated, with the trend going younger and younger (still older). They comment on the repeat customers. One has had repeat Omicron patients (only 5, all unvaccinated, all with a waist greater than 94cm). More 20 and 30 something patients. Yes, starting to see reinfection of Omicron already.
Link on % unvaccinated:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

Note, I have no idea if this is the new Omicron strain:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/321559


Lightsaber

Add to above, mild Omicron cases seem to do little to protect against reinfection (also notes not protecting vs. Delta)'
https://www.livemint.com/science/health ... 62489.html

The conversation has changed, but the virus decides what matters.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Add to above, mild Omicron cases seem to do little to protect against reinfection (also notes not protecting vs. Delta)'
https://www.livemint.com/science/health ... 62489.html

Lightsaber

Another source: https://qz.com/2119892/omicron-may-not- ... navigation

Because omicron is responsible for the spike in cases around the world, the populations who have contracted the virus are more likely to have a lower level of immunity built through the infections than they would have had with delta. Scientists also found that immunization following a breakthrough case of omicron offered limited protection against delta.

This has important consequences, particularly where the spread of omicron has been discussed as a potential alternative to immunization campaigns, or boosters. “Our results suggest that omicron-induced immunity may not be sufficient to prevent infection from another, more pathogenic variant, should it emerge in the future,” write the authors of the study.

This will be most unwelcome news, if confirmed by more data.

I guess the jabbing programme must go on. England seems to have lost interest, at least for the time being - 5.82 miliion total jabs in 7 days to 23rd Dec; 0.56 million total jabs in 7 days to 1st Feb.

Raw data source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

Denmark has lifted all of its domestic Covid-19 restrictions, including the wearing of face masks, making it the first European Union country to do so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60215200

With a large number of daily infections - 41K reported today in a population of <6 million - Denmark has acknowledged that it cannot contain BA.2. Some would say sensible, some would say stupid. I go for the former.

I wonder what will happen to hospitalisation figures over coming weeks.

Data source for infection numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries