COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - 2022

c933103 · Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:11 pm

http://cablenews.i-cable.com/ci/news/ar ... 6604491805

Vaccination rate in HK by groups: Age 12+: 90%, Age 80+: ~50%, Age 3-11: 40%+
Also, Hong Kong Post say they will stop mail/package delivery starting from Monday

c933103 · Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:18 pm

volauvent wrote:
airtechy wrote:
Looks like Covid has finally hit Hong Kong badly despite a 'Covid Zero' policy.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/asia/hong-kong-covid-crisis-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

HK is a perfect example of why an indefinite zero-covid strategy makes exactly zero sense and can, in fact, make it even worse over time.
Not to mention that zero-covid relies on highly oppressive measures which involve depriving citizens of basic rights and freedoms on a massive scale, which is why only China is just about succeeding a maintaining it so far... at least if you believe the official data.
HK is now being dragged into this dystopian nightmare which will further isolate it from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future.
Not sure how a city that has relied on being a international hub will manage to survive under these conditions but that seems to not be of any concern to the party.

The lock down they are planning now, as I posted up-thread, list bankers as exempted essential workers.

volauvent · Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:16 am

https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/v ... 37f411ee9f

The HK mass exodus intensifies.
The dark dystopian future the city is heading into is spooking expats and locals alike. All hope for a return to normalcy is gone, it seems.

Toenga · Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:58 pm

An interesting and data rich article from Australia's ABC on the question on "What is an acceptable level of covid deaths in our societies?"
It draws data largely from Australi, but also the UK, examining covid deaths relitive to other deaths, excess deaths as the local epidemic progressed, and the amount that lives were forshortened.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-08/ ... /100857462

casinterest · Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:14 pm

It seems so weird to read the previous posts, as here in the US we are past omicron, and today my kids went to school and had the option not to wear a mask for the first time in almost 2 years.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local ... 59303.html

Omicron will pass, but the unvaccinated will face higher risks in Hong Kong and other countries going through the worst of it.

Toenga · Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
It seems so weird to read the previous posts, as here in the US we are past omicron, and today my kids went to school and had the option not to wear a mask for the first time in almost 2 years.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local ... 59303.html

Omicron will pass, but the unvaccinated will face higher risks in Hong Kong and other countries going through the worst of it.

Here in NZ masks in schools were introduced for the first time when schools started back only at the beginning of last month. So about five weeks ago just as our Omicron outbreak started to gain it's initial momentum.
It looks likely we will retain our mask mandates, indoor public spaces and public transport until after the winter flu season subsides perhaps August? Depending on how Omicron progresses though, the school mask mandate will probably be dropped earlier.

Kent350787 · Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:15 pm

Toenga wrote:
casinterest wrote:
It seems so weird to read the previous posts, as here in the US we are past omicron, and today my kids went to school and had the option not to wear a mask for the first time in almost 2 years.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local ... 59303.html

Omicron will pass, but the unvaccinated will face higher risks in Hong Kong and other countries going through the worst of it.

Here in NZ masks in schools were introduced for the first time when schools started back only at the beginning of last month. So about five weeks ago just as our Omicron outbreak started to gain it's initial momentum.
It looks likely we will retain our mask mandates, indoor public spaces and public transport until after the winter flu season subsides perhaps August? Depending on how Omicron progresses though, the school mask mandate will probably be dropped earlier.

Masks have now gone from NSW schools, but are still in place for public transport, and strongly recommended indoors in other areas. The only signficant restrictions currently here are mandatory checkin for nightclubs and indoor music festival of over 1,000 people (whatever that means). Our first Omicron superspreader event was a nightclub where approx half of those who attended later tested positive.

But businesses have been warned to develop Covid management plans for winter.

* all hospital admissions are still tested, and hospitals segregate Covid positive patients.

c933103 · Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:15 am

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e8%a6%81% ... 6676109617
Hong Kong government model indicate 20% of the city have been infected, hence according to internal intel, they're now warming up to a idea of possibility of changing their pandemic-fighting strategy to minimize severe case and minimize death. The report claim they hope there can be some effect in 1-2 weeks.

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e8%a6%81% ... 6676113601
Two more children with 1-dose sinovac vaccinated died with positive test result in the same day, one have heart disease and the other thyroid disease. Immune storm suspected. Government planning to shorten gap between first and second dose for kids.

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e8%a6%81% ... 6676114600
Hong Kong government disclose death/critical/hospitalized breakdown by age for the first time.
Until Sunday, 1794 died, of which 1230 age over 80, 471 death age 60-79, 79 death age 40-59, 8 death 20-39, 6 death 0-19
7476 currently hospitalized, 4 patients age unknown, 3441 patients age over 80, 2634 patients age 60-79, 804 patients age 40-59, 306 patients age 20-39, 287 patients age 0-19
61 cases currently critical, 9 cases age over 80, 39 cases age 60-79, 10 cases age 40-59, then 1 case 20-29 and 1 case age less than 3.

https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e8%a6%81% ... 6676121448
The government is considering to implement an eviction ban on commercial facilities amid the pandemic, after considering backlashes from property owners, the current plan is to have it in effect for 3 months, for example from April to June, and exemptions can apply if property owner willing to reduce the rent by any percent the rentee accept.
Property owners claim such policy would affect cash flow, and could cause bankruptcy and employees have to be dismissed. And they also worries that shops night wait till end of the exemption period to file bankrupt, wasting the property for three months
Meanwhile, retail shops think the policy is not helpful as property owners can escape the ban by merely a symbolic reduction in rent, and even in other cases, with the market situation like now, it only mean the shops will close three months later when rent payment resume.

c933103 · Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:15 am

https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/tc/dashboard
R number in Hong Kong have been stabilizing at around 2.5 for Omicron despite vaccine rate and masking and virtual curfew

Toenga · Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:50 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/tc/dashboard
R number in Hong Kong have been stabilizing at around 2.5 for Omicron despite vaccine rate and masking and virtual curfew

The progress of covid in Hong Kong is interesting for us in NZ as we have similar populations,( but vastly different population density) and until very recently very similar covid strategies producing very similar results.

We are both facing Omicron outbreaks with similar trajectories, but our hospitalisation rates and death rates are at this stage have diverged tremendously. Less then 20 people here have died of covid so far this year.

The difference seems to be that NZ has extremely high vaccination rates in our middle aged and elderly.with near 100% full vaccination of people over 75 and about 97% full vaccination of people between 60 and 75.
https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-nov ... ly-updates

Kent350787 · Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:58 pm

Toenga wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/tc/dashboard
R number in Hong Kong have been stabilizing at around 2.5 for Omicron despite vaccine rate and masking and virtual curfew

The progress of covid in Hong Kong is interesting for us in NZ as we have similar populations,( but vastly different population density) and until very recently very similar covid strategies producing very similar results.

We are both facing Omicron outbreaks with similar trajectories, but our hospitalisation rates and death rates are at this stage have diverged tremendously. Less then 20 people here have died of covid so far this year.

The difference seems to be that NZ has extremely high vaccination rates in our middle aged and elderly.with near 100% full vaccination of people over 75 and about 97% full vaccination of people between 60 and 75.
https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-nov ... ly-updates

And Western Australia is different again, with vax stats similar to NZ yet far lower cases numbers and hospitalisations at this stage. The last two days have reported 48 people in hospital with Covid, 61 days since the first local Omicron case in the state.

c933103 · Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:21 am

https://transitjam.com/2022/03/10/govt- ... -wetlands/
Under the pretext of saving life by fighting the pandemic being more important than respecting law and order, the government is now pouring concrete onto wetlands in order to house temporary quarantine facilities for coronavirus-infected. Chinese workers are also deployed directly from Shenzhen to help construction of the site as Hong Kong law is now exempted from the site.

c933103 · Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:35 pm

https://udn.com/news/story/120940/6158703
Taiwan plan to announce open up strategy next month, pending a few indicators:
1. Whether the worldwide pandemic situation continue to relax without new outbreak/variant emerging (Around the world, West Pacific is the only region still seeing growing outbreak)
2. Whether shortening the quarantine period to 10 days is going to result in many unidentifiable cases in the community (They shortened the quarantine period from 14 days to 10 days, and might further shorten the quarantine period before full open up, depends on domestic case rate after relaxing)
3. Whether elderly age 75+ can reach 60% boosted (It's said that elderly in Taiwan are still undervaccinated, somewhat like Hong Kong's situation, hence it can only be treat as a reference instead of a target that must be meet, else opening up will be impossible)
4. Whether antigen self test result report rate, which is being asked to conduct during "health monitoring" period after end of quarantine, can reach/exceed 90%.

c933103 · Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:57 am

TV news in Hong Kong: People who spread photo of temporary quarantine facility's poor condition, like collapse of toilet roofs, are "Enemy of the whole society", because they "side with the virus", and claim there were never collapse of roof in those temporary quarantine facility, while also saying these are temporary facilities so infected people being sent to quarantine should "get use to" the condition of facility there.

leader1 · Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:54 pm

Outbreak in China seems to be getting worse and they’re starting to implement harsher measures. Shenzhen, which hasn’t been as affected by the current outbreak, is starting to lock down, according to this article. It’s in Chinese, unfortunately.

https://ishare.ifeng.com/c/s/v006LBcjcB ... 25ud097bd1

Edit. Here is a link in English.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1503036411745902593?s=21

lightsaber · Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:45 am

One of the iPhone production sites has shut down production due to Coronavirus:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technolo ... uxbndlbing
Foxconn, a major supplier for Apple and critical partner for the manufacturing of the iPhone, has halted production in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen, according to a spokesperson from the tech giant. The halt in operations is a direct result of soaring covid-19 cases in China

The impact in China is... interesting.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as ... NewsSearch

China, one of the few countries in the world to maintain a zero-covid strategy, is battling a surge of cases in at least 19 provinces that is testing the government’s commitment to minimizing infections as much as possible.
...
Authorities in the northeastern province of Jilin on Monday barred its 24 million residents from leaving, marking the first time officials have sealed an entire province since January 2020 when Hubei was put under lockdown.

Health officials said hospitals were overrun because of the rapid increase in cases since Friday.

There is more in the article. Why are the hospitals over-run? The Western vaccines didn't necessarily stop Omicron, but they made it so mild it didn't really matter for all but the most vulnerable.

The zero Covid strategy was needed until vaccines made enough safe; the #1 concern is to have hospitals able to handle the sick. With the medicines and procedures developed over the last two years, patients should be quick to go back home.

Ok, I admit it, I simply cannot understand why the hospitals are over-run in a well vaccinated country. Yes, in prior threads I had comments on the Chinese vaccine effectiveness, but I noted they worked well to stem hospitalizations. If it wasn't for those hospitalizations, I would advise just letting Omicron run through the country (there will be no stopping it, there are just too many false negative tests per the doctors I chat with). The official case rate is too low to have "over run" hospitals. To be blunt, something isn't adding up:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~CHN

frmrCapCadet · Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:45 pm

What may be missing is accurate numbers of those infected but totally asymptomatic. In addition most of those who contracted it but only used home testing packs have not been, nor are able to report positive and negative results. So far as I know there is no random testing being carried out anywhere in the US. That may have been something the VA or the defense department could have done. All of which means that epidemiologists are having to work with indirect and not always accurate information. Washington state infections went ballistic over the last six week (got both my sons who have been highly compliant with all recommendations), hospitalizations went up some, likewise deaths to a lesser degree, but not all that much. Wife and I have, in the last two years, had only one credible exposure and that was in February. We isolated.

casinterest · Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:49 pm

I am more worried about the vaccines that they gave in China and their effectiveness over time. I know initially sinovac was supposed to be 51% effective at protecting from Covid, and 100% effective at hospitalizations, but how about over time, and against Omicron? We know the mRNA lost effectiveness against Omicron. Did Sinovac suffer the same issue?

c933103 · Mon Mar 14, 2022 6:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
There is more in the article. Why are the hospitals over-run? The Western vaccines didn't necessarily stop Omicron, but they made it so mild it didn't really matter for all but the most vulnerable.

Because all infected, even if mild, as well as asymptomatic cases, are being hospitalized. And they have to remain hospitalized for at least 14 days after virus become undetectable within their body, in order to zero-ize the risk of shedding viruses toward the community.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
What may be missing is accurate numbers of those infected but totally asymptomatic.

China do not report asymptomatic cases as infected cases, but rather print the two numbers side by side.

lightsaber · Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:47 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There is more in the article. Why are the hospitals over-run? The Western vaccines didn't necessarily stop Omicron, but they made it so mild it didn't really matter for all but the most vulnerable.

Because all infected, even if mild, as well as asymptomatic cases, are being hospitalized. And they have to remain hospitalized for at least 14 days after virus become undetectable within their body, in order to zero-ize the risk of shedding viruses toward the community.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
What may be missing is accurate numbers of those infected but totally asymptomatic.

China do not report asymptomatic cases as infected cases, but rather print the two numbers side by side.

Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:

casinterest wrote:
I am more worried about the vaccines that they gave in China and their effectiveness over time. I know initially sinovac was supposed to be 51% effective at protecting from Covid, and 100% effective at hospitalizations, but how about over time, and against Omicron? We know the mRNA lost effectiveness against Omicron. Did Sinovac suffer the same issue?

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

casinterest · Mon Mar 14, 2022 9:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There is more in the article. Why are the hospitals over-run? The Western vaccines didn't necessarily stop Omicron, but they made it so mild it didn't really matter for all but the most vulnerable.

Because all infected, even if mild, as well as asymptomatic cases, are being hospitalized. And they have to remain hospitalized for at least 14 days after virus become undetectable within their body, in order to zero-ize the risk of shedding viruses toward the community.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
What may be missing is accurate numbers of those infected but totally asymptomatic.

China do not report asymptomatic cases as infected cases, but rather print the two numbers side by side.

Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:
casinterest wrote:
I am more worried about the vaccines that they gave in China and their effectiveness over time. I know initially sinovac was supposed to be 51% effective at protecting from Covid, and 100% effective at hospitalizations, but how about over time, and against Omicron? We know the mRNA lost effectiveness against Omicron. Did Sinovac suffer the same issue?

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

lightsaber · Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:11 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Because all infected, even if mild, as well as asymptomatic cases, are being hospitalized. And they have to remain hospitalized for at least 14 days after virus become undetectable within their body, in order to zero-ize the risk of shedding viruses toward the community.

China do not report asymptomatic cases as infected cases, but rather print the two numbers side by side.

Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:
casinterest wrote:
I am more worried about the vaccines that they gave in China and their effectiveness over time. I know initially sinovac was supposed to be 51% effective at protecting from Covid, and 100% effective at hospitalizations, but how about over time, and against Omicron? We know the mRNA lost effectiveness against Omicron. Did Sinovac suffer the same issue?

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

Kent350787 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

Australia is tracking similarly. Western Australia (pop 2.7 million) is still in a case growth phase, and is seeing near 5,000 cases daily. Other states are seeing a slight increase in case numbers, even as self reporting has made those numbers less accurate. Although case numbers are increasing, hospitalisations, especially ICU, are stable or declining.

Thankfully the confirmed death rate is reasonably low and declining. The difference in death rate between developed nations is quite marked, but it interests me why Germany's is so much higher than other countries with similar health systems. And then there is the USA.....

c933103 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 5:59 am

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Because all infected, even if mild, as well as asymptomatic cases, are being hospitalized. And they have to remain hospitalized for at least 14 days after virus become undetectable within their body, in order to zero-ize the risk of shedding viruses toward the community.

China do not report asymptomatic cases as infected cases, but rather print the two numbers side by side.

Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:
casinterest wrote:
I am more worried about the vaccines that they gave in China and their effectiveness over time. I know initially sinovac was supposed to be 51% effective at protecting from Covid, and 100% effective at hospitalizations, but how about over time, and against Omicron? We know the mRNA lost effectiveness against Omicron. Did Sinovac suffer the same issue?

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

In China, Towns 90%+ vaccinated were quarantine over a month even when it was Delta. As I have posted in previous quarter thread. Thus their response isn't comparable.

c933103 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:11 am

https://www.inmediahk.net/node/%E6%94%B ... 0%E8%B2%AC

Amid continued medical system meltdown in HK, the HK government hire Mainland Chinese medical staff as honorary staff to help with the medical system despite Chinese medical staff qualification are not usually recognized in HK. The government claim if there's something wrong during medical procedures, the government will take the responsibility and those Chinese medical staffs wouldn't be personally liable

casinterest · Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:04 pm

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

In China, Towns 90%+ vaccinated were quarantine over a month even when it was Delta. As I have posted in previous quarter thread. Thus their response isn't comparable.

I think most have had it with quarantines, especially the vaccinated .
It will be interesting to follow what is occurring.

Here in the US the wastewater treatment plants are starting to see a reverse in the decline of Covid. We will have to see if it starts showing in the numbers.

I do expect a small spike as masking is being lifted all over, but at some point we have to let the virus go as we have reached a high level of immunization and infection numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/w ... s-83451888

The CDC said 37% of wastewater sites it monitors had higher traces of COVID-19 between Feb. 24 and March 10.

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Reports also that the virus evades Sinovac:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/covid-fin ... on-variant

So the question becomes, how sick are they?

Lightsaber

Late edit:

All vaccines, not just mRNA lose effectiveness. So combine Omicron with the time to deteriorate... The question is effectiveness vs. medical hospitalizations (not hospitalized as a form of quarantine).

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

It will come down to watching the hospitals this time. I don't think any politician has the stomach for more mandates.

c933103 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:11 pm

casinterest wrote:
I think most have had it with quarantines, especially the vaccinated .
It will be interesting to follow what is occurring.

Ruili city of Yunnan had multiple harsh lockdown, including the most significant one in the autumn of 2021, which saw a consecutive lockdowm of 3+ months and total suspension of economic activity. Yet people still need to pay for rents and such. Many moved away from the town but not many can afford so, as the city being treated as a high risk area mean entering any other Chinese cities/towns/villages would require a 14-35 days quarantine at hotel at their own expense, which is simply not something most low level workers can afford especially after previous repeated lockdown and hault in border trade which the city was depend on., and then there are also certain quota that the local government only allow specific number of people to leave the city everyday. Uncountable number of suicide was reported from the city, with one most phenomenal video on the internet showing a person jumping off a building while singing China's National Anthem, which I think is probably an attempt to display that their end of life out of lack of choice and the hardship they are facing is not what the approved mainstream opinion on the Chinese internet depict, aka that Chinese people are having a happy life with needs fulfilled by government responsively under the government's zero covid policy, and anyone who complaints are haters staged by western government trying to sabotage China's success in fighting the pandemic.

c933103 · Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:42 am

https://m.sohu.com/a/530286471_116237/?pvid=000115_3w_a

China updated coronavirus treatment protocol amid Omicron
They say, with Omicron being milder, with for example 95% hospital capacity in the province of Jilin are now being used by asymptomatic and mild patients, it is a waste of medical resource, hence asymptomatic and mild cases will only need to be quarantined collectively at dedicated facilities, instead of be quarantined at hospital

lightsaber · Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:04 pm

European hospitalizations for corona-virus are going back up (no data available for Germany):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

It would be interesting to know the real scientific reasons for the increase. Is it increased socialization, reduced vaccine effectiveness (with time), new variant(s)?

Cases are going up everywhere in the EU, except for Spain:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... SP~BEL~NLD

Note, I exclude the USA as we seem to trail in cases by a few months. I wonder what the best solution is?

casinterest · Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
European hospitalizations for corona-virus are going back up (no data available for Germany):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

It would be interesting to know the real scientific reasons for the increase. Is it increased socialization, reduced vaccine effectiveness (with time), new variant(s)?

Cases are going up everywhere in the EU, except for Spain:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... SP~BEL~NLD

Note, I exclude the USA as we seem to trail in cases by a few months. I wonder what the best solution is?

Vaccinations at this point. I think it will be hard to see what is coming as the US really let the virus spread over the holidays.

lightsaber · Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

In China, Towns 90%+ vaccinated were quarantine over a month even when it was Delta. As I have posted in previous quarter thread. Thus their response isn't comparable.

I think most have had it with quarantines, especially the vaccinated .
It will be interesting to follow what is occurring.

Here in the US the wastewater treatment plants are starting to see a reverse in the decline of Covid. We will have to see if it starts showing in the numbers.

I do expect a small spike as masking is being lifted all over, but at some point we have to let the virus go as we have reached a high level of immunization and infection numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/w ... s-83451888

The CDC said 37% of wastewater sites it monitors had higher traces of COVID-19 between Feb. 24 and March 10.

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Guess we will see what happens in Japan, Germany, vs China. A lot of cases still out there. I wonder if we will see another flare up in the US as well with all of the restrictions going away lately?

Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

It will come down to watching the hospitals this time. I don't think any politician has the stomach for more mandates.

Oh, if I recall correctly wastewater leads "cases" by two or three weeks.

I agree people are done isolating. It will come down to the hospitals. The issue is lag time between infections and hospitalization demand. Ugh... I had really mild Omicron in February (I'm boosted) and my prior "curve reading" says that gives the vaccinated 3 months of good protection... (I'm being lazy, take it as my opinion.)

No one has a stomach for more mandates. We were talking in dance class about coronavirus (I swear that I wasn't among the first 4 people talking about it) and everyone is resigned, but really wants to live normally.

Lightsaber

Kent350787 · Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
In China, Towns 90%+ vaccinated were quarantine over a month even when it was Delta. As I have posted in previous quarter thread. Thus their response isn't comparable.

I think most have had it with quarantines, especially the vaccinated .
It will be interesting to follow what is occurring.

Here in the US the wastewater treatment plants are starting to see a reverse in the decline of Covid. We will have to see if it starts showing in the numbers.

I do expect a small spike as masking is being lifted all over, but at some point we have to let the virus go as we have reached a high level of immunization and infection numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/w ... s-83451888

The CDC said 37% of wastewater sites it monitors had higher traces of COVID-19 between Feb. 24 and March 10.

lightsaber wrote:
Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

It will come down to watching the hospitals this time. I don't think any politician has the stomach for more mandates.

Oh, if I recall correctly wastewater leads "cases" by two or three weeks.

I agree people are done isolating. It will come down to the hospitals. The issue is lag time between infections and hospitalization demand. Ugh... I had really mild Omicron in February (I'm boosted) and my prior "curve reading" says that gives the vaccinated 3 months of good protection... (I'm being lazy, take it as my opinion.)

No one has a stomach for more mandates. We were talking in dance class about coronavirus (I swear that I wasn't among the first 4 people talking about it) and everyone is resigned, but really wants to live normally.

Lightsaber

Here in Australia we still have isolation requirements for household and close contacts of positive cases. My youngest son (14) still isn't 100% after a positive test a week ago, although my eldests and I returned negative PCR overnight so will be leaving isolation this afternoon.

Positive cases have been increasing for a fortnight or so across Australia, yet hospitalisations are overall stable and ICU numbers continue downwards. Western Australia, with populations centres physically isolated from the rest of the country also with low population densities, is still showing a low hospitalisation rate and an even lower ICU rate. It does have an adult population over 95% double dosed, and well over 65% boosted.

casinterest · Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:08 am

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
In China, Towns 90%+ vaccinated were quarantine over a month even when it was Delta. As I have posted in previous quarter thread. Thus their response isn't comparable.

I think most have had it with quarantines, especially the vaccinated .
It will be interesting to follow what is occurring.

Here in the US the wastewater treatment plants are starting to see a reverse in the decline of Covid. We will have to see if it starts showing in the numbers.

I do expect a small spike as masking is being lifted all over, but at some point we have to let the virus go as we have reached a high level of immunization and infection numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/News/video/w ... s-83451888

The CDC said 37% of wastewater sites it monitors had higher traces of COVID-19 between Feb. 24 and March 10.

lightsaber wrote:
Looking at the data, the USA is doing fine, but UK, France, and in Particular Germany have a possible wave starting. Since the USA lagged the last wave....

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... AN~DEU~FRA

What matters is medically required hospitalizations (not calling quarantine camp a hospital).

Ugh, decisions...

Lightsaber

It will come down to watching the hospitals this time. I don't think any politician has the stomach for more mandates.

Oh, if I recall correctly wastewater leads "cases" by two or three weeks.

I agree people are done isolating. It will come down to the hospitals. The issue is lag time between infections and hospitalization demand. Ugh... I had really mild Omicron in February (I'm boosted) and my prior "curve reading" says that gives the vaccinated 3 months of good protection... (I'm being lazy, take it as my opinion.)

No one has a stomach for more mandates. We were talking in dance class about coronavirus (I swear that I wasn't among the first 4 people talking about it) and everyone is resigned, but really wants to live normally.

Lightsaber

I guess what i was getting at is I feel more like this will be an echo of the explosion of cases in December. More opening up is allowing more people to become exposed. Hopefully the hospitals stay clear.

Tonight though I had to wear a mask for a school recital. First time in two weeks I had to throw one on.

avier · Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:17 am

Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

c933103 · Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:55 am

avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

Hong Kong have no full lock down until now. Restaurants are still allowed to open until 6pm for vaccinated customers, although many of them became closed due to too much staffs became infected. Individual buildings are subject to 1-3 days isolation when they detect relative high level of virus from wastewater.

The government is now saying that they plan to do a 4-7 days lockdown *after* cases have fallen to about 3-4 digits level, in order to help detect undetected cases and reach COVID-ZERO

c933103 · Fri Mar 18, 2022 8:51 am

https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%e6%b8%af% ... 7591952345

Hong Kong officially exceeded 1 Million confirmed cases.
5188 died since this year's wave start.
This mean Hong Kong now have more than double the number of confirmed cases of the entire Mainland China?

volauvent · Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:45 am

avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

Epic failure doesn't even begin to cover it.

Yesterday, Hong Kong equalled the number of cases of Singapore since the beginning of the pandemic... It however counted over four times as many deaths.
And that's after 2 years of strict isolation from the World and harsh zero-covid measures which deprived patients and their close contacts of any basic freedoms and saw them forcefully and arbitrarily sent to Covid jails (thousands ore of which are currently and hastily being built).

As you said, businesses are crumbling, with about half of street level shops in town now being shuttered. Thousands are losing their jobs every week, in a city with ludicrously high rents and no social net. Large businesses are losing patience and leaving the city in droves, along with thousands of qualified employees.
The city is now losing over 70,000 people (1% of its population) every month to the exodus, from expats and locals alike. Aside from the pure loss of numbers, it also represents a huge brain drain and, for the government which is now haemorrhaging money thanks to its endless and hopeless Covid measures, an enormous loss of tax revenue.
This exodus will likely hasten towards the summer after kids are done with their school year, which they mostly spent stuck at home in front of a screen.

The saddest thing about all this is that it didn't have to happen this way. Hong Kong has had 2 years to prepare for this eventuality. 2 years that could have been spent leading an aggressive vaccination campaign and beefing up and preparing the healthcare system for the inevitable wave.
Instead of that, the local leadership simply relied on their assumed ability to ward off the virus forever while mounting a disastrous vaccination campaign and preparing exactly zero contingency plan for a potential infection wave.

This is beyond complacency. It's criminal incompetence hidden behind the veil of a quasi-religious devotion to an unfeasible long term zero-covid strategy. A deer in the headlights praying for the truck to disappear...

And now it is the motherland's turn - the one which eschewed pragmatism and replaced it with this ideological fantasy used for propaganda and self-aggrandizement, the one which imposed it onto HK in the first place - to face the consequences of this delusion.
Dozens of millions are now in strict lockdown across the country, destabilising the economy even more and causing untold societal damage, with little sign that this widespread outbreak will be brought under control...
Add to that the exclusive reliance on domestic vaccines with questionable efficacy, an undersized healthcare system in many parts of the country and a large elderly population which is likely under-vaccinated too, and the recipe for a large-scale disaster of human and economic proportions is unfortunately there. The clock is running out, yet the zero-covid pretension remains.

Denial isn't just the name of a river...

santi319 · Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:31 am

volauvent wrote:
avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

Epic failure doesn't even begin to cover it.

Yesterday, Hong Kong equalled the number of cases of Singapore since the beginning of the pandemic... It however counted over four times as many deaths.
And that's after 2 years of strict isolation from the World and harsh zero-covid measures which deprived patients and their close contacts of any basic freedoms and saw them forcefully and arbitrarily sent to Covid jails (thousands ore of which are currently and hastily being built).

As you said, businesses are crumbling, with about half of street level shops in town now being shuttered. Thousands are losing their jobs every week, in a city with ludicrously high rents and no social net. Large businesses are losing patience and leaving the city in droves, along with thousands of qualified employees.
The city is now losing over 70,000 people (1% of its population) every month to the exodus, from expats and locals alike. Aside from the pure loss of numbers, it also represents a huge brain drain and, for the government which is now haemorrhaging money thanks to its endless and hopeless Covid measures, an enormous loss of tax revenue.
This exodus will likely hasten towards the summer after kids are done with their school year, which they mostly spent stuck at home in front of a screen.

The saddest thing about all this is that it didn't have to happen this way. Hong Kong has had 2 years to prepare for this eventuality. 2 years that could have been spent leading an aggressive vaccination campaign and beefing up and preparing the healthcare system for the inevitable wave.
Instead of that, the local leadership simply relied on their assumed ability to ward off the virus forever while mounting a disastrous vaccination campaign and preparing exactly zero contingency plan for a potential infection wave.

This is beyond complacency. It's criminal incompetence hidden behind the veil of a quasi-religious devotion to an unfeasible long term zero-covid strategy. A deer in the headlights praying for the truck to disappear...

And now it is the motherland's turn - the one which eschewed pragmatism and replaced it with this ideological fantasy used for propaganda and self-aggrandizement, the one which imposed it onto HK in the first place - to face the consequences of this delusion.
Dozens of millions are now in strict lockdown across the country, destabilising the economy even more and causing untold societal damage, with little sign that this widespread outbreak will be brought under control...
Add to that the exclusive reliance on domestic vaccines with questionable efficacy, an undersized healthcare system in many parts of the country and a large elderly population which is likely under-vaccinated too, and the recipe for a large-scale disaster of human and economic proportions is unfortunately there. The clock is running out, yet the zero-covid pretension remains.

Denial isn't just the name of a river...

Everything you have just described is literally China’s wet dream for HK… makes you wonder.

lightsaber · Fri Mar 18, 2022 3:32 pm

avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

4,600 deaths is sad. Even as the link notes mostly elderly and unvaccinated.

The failure is not vaccinating more. Was there a shortage of Pfizer?

Lightsaber

frmrCapCadet · Fri Mar 18, 2022 5:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

4,600 deaths is sad. Even as the link notes mostly elderly and unvaccinated.

The failure is not vaccinating more. Was there a shortage of Pfizer?

Lightsaber

As a matter of good will, astute politics, morality, the West would have done everything possible to aid China in making the most effective vaccines available. Instead China used every possible tool to reject any help from the rest of the world. Part of the 'long haul' symptoms of too much communism. And evil to boot.

c933103 · Fri Mar 18, 2022 5:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

4,600 deaths is sad. Even as the link notes mostly elderly and unvaccinated.

The failure is not vaccinating more. Was there a shortage of Pfizer?

Lightsaber

Not really. Last September the government even said there were too much Pfizer and they're going to be expire.
See also https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20220301/h ... hant/dual/

lightsaber · Sat Mar 19, 2022 6:50 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
Hong Kong’s crematoriums are straining under the pressure of the world’s highest Covid-19 death rate, as the city closes in on 1 million infections in its current outbreak.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/ho ... ovid-surge

To have reached such a situation after all their strict lockdowns, restrictions and insane rules with an aim to have a covid-zero strategy in Hong Kong, one can now conclude that their strategy was nothing but an epic failure.

This after they nearly killed and bankrupted their industries and businesses, more notably CX (mentioning since this an av site).

4,600 deaths is sad. Even as the link notes mostly elderly and unvaccinated.

The failure is not vaccinating more. Was there a shortage of Pfizer?

Lightsaber

Not really. Last September the government even said there were too much Pfizer and they're going to be expire.
See also https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20220301/h ... hant/dual/

Thank you.
What was the policy on boosters?

c933103 · Sat Mar 19, 2022 7:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
4,600 deaths is sad. Even as the link notes mostly elderly and unvaccinated.

The failure is not vaccinating more. Was there a shortage of Pfizer?

Lightsaber

Not really. Last September the government even said there were too much Pfizer and they're going to be expire.
See also https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20220301/h ... hant/dual/

Thank you.
What was the policy on boosters?

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202 ... 300518.htm
The government started offering boosters from November 2021, back then they recommended prioritized booster vaccination for all immunocompromised 4 weeks after third dose, and SinoVac-vaccinated high risk groups (elderly, medicals, cross border workers, etc.) to get third dose after 6 months, while also recommending Pfizer vaccinated higher risk groups to get booster vaccination 6 months after second dose vaccination

The latest policy from yesterday have changed to all adults can get 3rd dose 3 months after second dose

c933103 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:29 pm

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 2%E9%A3%9F

Hong Kong government announce path to resume normal.

From April 1, inbound flight ban from UK US Australia and such will be cancel. All returning citizens need to be 2-dose vaccinated, and have 7-days quarantine hotel booking. Pre-departure PCR tests and post-arrival PCR test will still be needed. If arrival PCR test show negative result, then they will be asked to quarantine 14 days and take antigen test everyday, in addition to PCR test on 5th and 12th days. Antigen test negative on 6th and 7th day can leave but still need to quarantine at home and 12th day PCR test will need to be conducted at testing center. If citizens choose not to leave early then they need to take PCR test on 12th day at hotel before leaving on 14th day.

From April 19, schools will resume.

From April 21, in the timespan of 3 months that follow, if the case count do not rebound and continue to decrease, then society can reopen in 3 steps:
Step 1: Reopen recreational and religious and cultural facilities, restaurants can open up to 10pm with up to 4 people each tables.
Step 2: Reopen swimming pool and beaches, gathering facilities and night clubs, cruise ships. bars can reopen until 12/2am with 4 people each tables and restaurants up to 12 with up to 8 people each table. Mask mandate exemption for when doing sports will be reinstalled.
Step 3: All restrictions on restaurants and bars will be dropped.

c933103 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:11 pm

https://preview.redd.it/7nwnrmahoco81.j ... 0ef6fd637c

Capture of an online comment from a Chinese user on the internet, which I found worth considering when it come to the context of possible reopening of China.

The current outbreak in China until now, from real world experience and some halfly covered up information, it's obvious that most people know it can't kill a lot. Less virulent and less likely to kill, was supposed to be a good thing, but under current mechanism nothing can be good, all good things can be turned into bad, and an even more distorted bad. That people aren't going to die give rulers even more rooms, let them meddle with people as they like. Shenzhen do PCR testing in a way like temple festival, people are even more crowded together than having a temple festival, is that what one would do if they are afraid of infection? Big companies do not let employees work from home, everyday after works people need to queue up for more than an hour just to gain the permit to enter office the next day, people queuing up all over the streets, is that what one would do to prevent virus? Then when lockdown is announced, employees are being locked inside the office, or that people are being taken to tents outside offices with their computers to continue their work, and all the delivery people are sleeping everywhere around the street, if COVID-19 still have the fatality rate of early 2020, would they dare? In Xuzhou of Jiansu, PCR test is not required in any other places, but specifically the Dongji village need to check PCR test result [The village where last month it was revealed that trafficked women are chained inside cages for years, and the government suppressed all reports of the event instead of addressing it], what does it mean, it mean even the bandits deep down in the most lower level of the authority know what is the true nature of "checking PCR test" in the country nowadays.

All the distortion stacked to now are already cannot be reverted. If there were useful vaccines then it won't be outbreak, but all are vaccinated with those useless. Infected is fine in fact, but all the fear mongering penetrated deep down in the public's mind, relaxing then even mild patients are going to rush to hospitals too causing hospitals overload, and even till now in order to make up the image of being infected by others, still keep on checking the surface of delivery packages strictly for whether there are virus hidden, yet doing large scale lockdowns one after others. What is the goal of stopping the delivery amid lockdown? To starve people to death?

Then, what is next. Now there are trials of antigen tests. Pfizer pills have been approved. And the most important and symbolic Chinese medicine have already promoted Chinese Acupuncture as treatment. It mean that decision makers know, the spring of the battle against the pandemic is going to come soon. But policy have their own dignity. Like DGGGJ said, the cat is eating plastic bag, when you point this out, the cat will kill you. As long as the cat stay silent, then the covid-zero policy have to be maintained. And be fired. And do city-wide PCR tests. People are all meddled around by these. The only one being happy is the chief secretary of Wondfo Biotech [who commented "My feeling now is like winning a lottery!" after their antigen kit get approved by national government amid the outbreak in China]. You have to wait for the cat to speak themselves, but you have to pray and hope the cat to speak it by itself, as if you are transferring the royal seat, keep on praying and hoping, then finally the cat will grant their blessing to all the public, let public have a relatively normal life. From victory to victory! [A commonly used slogan whenever the party change policy direction, that all the things parties did are right, both the old directions and new directions are heading to victories, to try to paint policy changes as simply heading to *another* victory from previous *victory*] So disgusting.

c933103 · Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:21 pm

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 1%E6%A8%A3

Hong Kong government say, PCR testing demand have dropped after the government accept antigen testing as proof of infection. To better utilize the testing capacity, they will resume government orders to force residents in "specific high risk communities" to take the PCR tests, so as to match demand with the available capacity.

lightsaber · Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:42 pm

I've been watching the cases in Europe go up and lookie here, the hospitalizations are either slowing the decline or going up again:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Actually, the hospitalizations in the UK are going up scary fast as in "you cannot ignore this" fast.

Same chart with the USA, but to really compare one would need to sum up a bunch of EU states to the US population or else start comparing individual US states to EU countries. However, it is good that our hospitalizations are now below those in France (barely) with the large population disparity. However, I'm not holding my breath, I fully expect this wave to hit the US, with a time lag, just as we've seen again and again.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Lightsaber

c933103 · Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:47 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I've been watching the cases in Europe go up and lookie here, the hospitalizations are either slowing the decline or going up again:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Actually, the hospitalizations in the UK are going up scary fast as in "you cannot ignore this" fast.

Same chart with the USA, but to really compare one would need to sum up a bunch of EU states to the US population or else start comparing individual US states to EU countries. However, it is good that our hospitalizations are now below those in France (barely) with the large population disparity. However, I'm not holding my breath, I fully expect this wave to hit the US, with a time lag, just as we've seen again and again.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Lightsaber

120 days cycle again?

lightsaber · Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:57 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I've been watching the cases in Europe go up and lookie here, the hospitalizations are either slowing the decline or going up again:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Actually, the hospitalizations in the UK are going up scary fast as in "you cannot ignore this" fast.

Same chart with the USA, but to really compare one would need to sum up a bunch of EU states to the US population or else start comparing individual US states to EU countries. However, it is good that our hospitalizations are now below those in France (barely) with the large population disparity. However, I'm not holding my breath, I fully expect this wave to hit the US, with a time lag, just as we've seen again and again.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... SP~BEL~NLD

Lightsaber

120 days cycle again?

Unfortunately, it does seem to be right on that track. :hissyfit:

Actually, a little faster for the UK, but let's not split hairs.

My arrogance of past posts is over as those UK hospitalizations are... not able to be ignored. Per the following chart, they have 57% boosted and enough vaccine in arms for 75% to be vaccinated (slow on the kids, in my opinion).

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+type%29

Groan! I don't mean to beat up on the UK. They provide the world a service with great data. They are also connected to the world as this aviation forum knows well.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... he-us.html
1. U.K. COVID-19 cases have jumped 36.8 percent in seven days, according to government data last updated March 21. Meanwhile, hospitalizations are also rising, though not as quickly, with a 25.1 percent increase in COVID-19 patient admissions in the last seven days. Both metrics have been simultaneously rising for multiple weeks, an unusual trend given increases in COVID-19 cases preceded hospitalization increases by about 10 days to two weeks in previous waves.

2. U.K. authorities have attributed the rising cases and hospitalizations to the BA.2 variant, which is more transmissible than the original omicron strain; the opening of society, with people socializing indoors without masks; and waning immunity from vaccination or prior infection.

There is more worth reading. It looks like Deltacron is an issue (that's BA2, right?). This link also calls it the "stealth Omicron."
https://theconversation.com/what-is-the ... -us-179619

Recent studies from the U.K. and Denmark suggest that BA.2 may pose a similar risk of hospitalization as BA.1.

Oh great, that means my friends working the hospitals are in for a wild ride again.

A week ago the sewer water testing shows we are going in for a new spike:
https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-sewer-data-s ... 36330.html

If I recall correctly, 2 to 3 weeks after the sewer spike we see the cases climb and then 2 or 3 weeks after that the hospitalizations climb with deaths behind that.

Lightsaber

Late edit: Ro of 8.2 per the 2nd link. :faint:

So a really fast wave. Ugh.

Toenga · Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:58 pm

Last figures out of NZ is that in the space of 6 weeks the Omricon outbreak here has progressed from very predominantly Ba1 to now very predominantly Ba2. This means that daily infection rates, and hospitilisations are much higher then modelled only two months ago.
The daily case numbers in Auckland, 1/3 rd of our total population, seem to be falling now quite quickly, but hospitilisations seem to have plateaued at around 600 for Auckland but are rapidly rising through 400 for the rest of the country. Daily deaths are at 15 yesterday and expected to keep rising for some time yet.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/n ... rted-today

Hopefully we will avoid though the second Omicron wave that seems to be shaping up elsewhere in the world.

6 year old grandson in Wellington tested positive yesterday with mild symptoms. Has had one dose of Pfizer and was due for second today.
His parents, both triple dosed, still negative, for now.
We wont visit just yet though nor will we be inviting them here for Easter!

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