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qf789
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COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:23 am

Welcome to the COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1465381
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:02 pm

http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/57012863
Germany: 95.6% Omicron cases are vaccinated
---
Isn't it higher than total vaccinated rate of the country?
Assuming it's not enhancing antibodies, why? What make vaccinated more likely to get it than unvaccinated?
People lowering their guard after vaccinations?
 
yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:12 pm

c933103 wrote:
http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/57012863
Germany: 95.6% Omicron cases are vaccinated
---
Isn't it higher than total vaccinated rate of the country?
Assuming it's not enhancing antibodies, why? What make vaccinated more likely to get it than unvaccinated?
People lowering their guard after vaccinations?

This is a very odd statistic. But I guess the most important figure from this is that only 1.2% requires hospitalisation and 0.03% died. This is a phenomenally benign figure which is comparable to the seasonal flu. We are truly entering the endemic phase (outside China).
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:26 pm

https://canoe.com/opinion/columnists/br ... 3710ae021d

Ontario, Canada: ~50% covid hospitalizations are incidental findings, as in those people aren't admitted into hospital for coronavirus, but rather for other reasons, but only discovered they have coronavirus when tested when they are admitted into hospital

In my opinion this indicate two things:
1. A lot of cases there aren't being caught and are only discovered when being randomly sampled for unrelated reason (hospitalization for other clauses)
2. Hospitalization rate in Ontario have been overestimated
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:55 pm

US hospitalizations spiking up fast, over 82,000 in the hospital with coronavirus. This is just too much workload, we need the hospitals for other stuff:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations


yonahleung wrote:
c933103 wrote:
http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/57012863
Germany: 95.6% Omicron cases are vaccinated
---
Isn't it higher than total vaccinated rate of the country?
Assuming it's not enhancing antibodies, why? What make vaccinated more likely to get it than unvaccinated?
People lowering their guard after vaccinations?

This is a very odd statistic. But I guess the most important figure from this is that only 1.2% requires hospitalisation and 0.03% died. This is a phenomenally benign figure which is comparable to the seasonal flu. We are truly entering the endemic phase (outside China).

If I may refine, we are entering the endemic phase for the vaccinated. We need a very young child's vaccine (age 6 months up).
Deaths in the US are a bit high still, which goes with hospital workload:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Everyone is going to get Omicron. For the vaccinated, this won't be much news. Unfortunately, child hospitalizations in the US increased 66% week on week to 370 new in a day:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/omicr ... NewsSearch

Unfortunately, we have a lot ahead of us; it will be quick, but between now and February (or so) we still have a surge to get through with so many unvaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:32 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://canoe.com/opinion/columnists/brampton-mayor-speaks-out-on-ontarios-misleading-covid-hospital-data/wcm/3b0f1fc4-d4b4-46cb-830d-5d3710ae021d

Ontario, Canada: ~50% covid hospitalizations are incidental findings, as in those people aren't admitted into hospital for coronavirus, but rather for other reasons, but only discovered they have coronavirus when tested when they are admitted into hospital

In my opinion this indicate two things:
1. A lot of cases there aren't being caught and are only discovered when being randomly sampled for unrelated reason (hospitalization for other clauses)
2. Hospitalization rate in Ontario have been overestimated


Kudos to the mayor of Brampton, Ontario Patrick Brown for stating this publicly. Brampton has been one of the hardest hit municipalities in Ontario with Covid also. It has a very high immigrant population and a lot of essential logistic and manufacturing businesses due to its proximity to YYZ. The same mayor also has not cancelled Brampton's NYE celebration because he says its outdoors and the risk is still low to transmit outside.

Also in Ontario as of yesterday. We are following the isolation rules set up by the CDC that if you are fully vaccinated you isolate for 5 days or until your symptoms lift. Also testing that will be covered by the health care system is only for high risk symptomatic individuals. If you have symptoms you are to assume you have Covid and you should say home. Surprisingly common sense from a place that had some of the longest lockdowns on the planet.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-updat ... -1.5723084
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:02 pm

Just an odd note: HIV, SARS, and Ebola (plus some other lesser concerns) came to the fore over the last 40 years. Those who suffered and died did not do so wholly in vain. We are far more prepared than had this emerged before HIV. Us sapiens represent the largest meat mass of large mammals (I think) and as such are and will be the prime target of micro predators. It will happen again. It is too early to say that covid has now become endemic, the next series of mutations could but probably won't be even more deadly. We won't know that it is over until we can see in a rear view mirror that it is over.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:52 am

RE lightsaber's comment from previous thread

It is important to remember that, despite hospitalization rate of Omicron in South Africa is said to have dropped to 0.3%, I don't think it still can compare with a flu with 0.3% CFR, because:
1. The recorded number of coronavirus cases still include many asymptomatic cases and very mild cases, while in flu's situation, such people simply wouldn't be recorded as a "flu's case", thus making coronavirus' Case Fatality Rate mathematically deflated compares to an hypothetical flu virus with similar characteristics.
2. Despite massive amount of vaccination, and widespread prior infection, there're still a number of people who have no prior exposure to the coronavirus and completely lack immunity against it, unlike flu which almost everyone contacted it before in their life.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:31 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... les-news24

It seems that South Africa has in fact been under a quasi-lockdown of sorts, despite what the rest of the world has been made to believe by mainstream media. We are playing with fire by not having lockdowns.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:32 am

https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children ... on-1664676
Fauci dismiss children hospitalization concern, claim some of them are found to have COVID when admitted for reasons like broken legs, instead of admitted because of COVID.

I think they need to get a PR department to better deliver pandemic related messages.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:28 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children-hospital-covid-omicron-1664676
Fauci dismiss children hospitalization concern, claim some of them are found to have COVID when admitted for reasons like broken legs, instead of admitted because of COVID.

I think they need to get a PR department to better deliver pandemic related messages.

Is he wrong?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:49 am

flyguy89 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children-hospital-covid-omicron-1664676
Fauci dismiss children hospitalization concern, claim some of them are found to have COVID when admitted for reasons like broken legs, instead of admitted because of COVID.

I think they need to get a PR department to better deliver pandemic related messages.

Is he wrong?


No, he just isn't spreading fear and panic enough... apparently.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:36 pm

I have several family members (in several households) that tested positive this week. They did tests before going to see other people for the holidays, not due to symptoms. About 10 people, adults of all ages (all vaccinated 2-3 doses or had already COVID + 1 dose). They have absolutely no symptom, that's encouraging.

Starting next week in France we're supposed to do 3-4 days of telework if possible, I have a feeling 90% of my colleagues will be there on Monday, so I'll be there too... We got an email from the HR boss saying to follow this government rule, but without any plan on how to do it...
 
af773atmsp
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:51 pm

How concerned should we be about double infection of COVID and influenza?
 
Redd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:04 pm

My mom tested positive on Wednesday. Symptoms were a fever up to 38.5 at it's peak and an awful headache for the first three days of symptoms. I got her tested the day after she started to feel under the weather. Today she's got a little of a cough, no fever and no headache, and has most of her energy back. She also mentioned that on the two worst days, Thursday and Friday, she would feel much better for an hour or so, then much worse, then back and forth all day.

But as mentioned, today seems to be the end of any serious sounding symptoms. So I'm quite relieved it wasn't any worse. Mom is 68 and still a smoker, there was plenty of reason to be worried.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:09 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-children-hospital-covid-omicron-1664676
Fauci dismiss children hospitalization concern, claim some of them are found to have COVID when admitted for reasons like broken legs, instead of admitted because of COVID.

I think they need to get a PR department to better deliver pandemic related messages.

Is he wrong?

He's not wrong and that's the problem. What we learn about the pandemic evolve over time but people aren't being informed with changes nor do people get accustomed to the fact that observation evolved over time, as a result some people feel like they're being cheated and refuse to believe the changing observation, which I see is because this isn't being well communicated. Hence I think they need to have someone dedicated to public relationship to tell people what all the new findings mean.
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:39 am

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/south-africa-may-lift-curfew-in-change-to-lockdown-rules-news24

It seems that South Africa has in fact been under a quasi-lockdown of sorts, despite what the rest of the world has been made to believe by mainstream media. We are playing with fire by not having lockdowns.


You want more lockdowns? Do you work from home?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:34 pm

777luver wrote:
TokyoImperialPa wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/south-africa-may-lift-curfew-in-change-to-lockdown-rules-news24

It seems that South Africa has in fact been under a quasi-lockdown of sorts, despite what the rest of the world has been made to believe by mainstream media. We are playing with fire by not having lockdowns.


You want more lockdowns? Do you work from home?

If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns. We need 90%+ of the resources being used on Covid19 patients for other medical matters. Alas, we have to get through this horrid wave first. I fully realize no one believes how bad it is in the hospitals. My friends and relatives working the coronavirus wards are shocked at the patients being sent home by the ER with oxygen and a few pills as... there really isn't any other choice in some areas (patients who would have been hospitalized before).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

My relative's hospital isn't bad, but so many patients, my relative had to work 11 days straight (recall, hospital shifts are 12 to 17 hours) as so many staff are retiring as they just have no more empathy to give. 85% of patients unvacs:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

When this is done we'll have to get everyone keeping their new year's resolution to lose weight and somehow increase vaccinations.

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:00 pm

Lockdowns: why not do it in stages -
a) unvaccinated (1 - more likely to end up being severely affected 2 - more likely to infect others)
b) if infection in the unvaccinated risks overwhelming the resources available, lock down the vaccinated as well
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:
TokyoImperialPa wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/south-africa-may-lift-curfew-in-change-to-lockdown-rules-news24

It seems that South Africa has in fact been under a quasi-lockdown of sorts, despite what the rest of the world has been made to believe by mainstream media. We are playing with fire by not having lockdowns.


You want more lockdowns? Do you work from home?

If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns. We need 90%+ of the resources being used on Covid19 patients for other medical matters. Alas, we have to get through this horrid wave first. I fully realize no one believes how bad it is in the hospitals. My friends and relatives working the coronavirus wards are shocked at the patients being sent home by the ER with oxygen and a few pills as... there really isn't any other choice in some areas (patients who would have been hospitalized before).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

My relative's hospital isn't bad, but so many patients, my relative had to work 11 days straight (recall, hospital shifts are 12 to 17 hours) as so many staff are retiring as they just have no more empathy to give. 85% of patients unvacs:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

When this is done we'll have to get everyone keeping their new year's resolution to lose weight and somehow increase vaccinations.

Lightsaber


Lockdowns might help., but it seems Omicron is ready to run the gauntlet. Here in NC, I have had many friends that have tested positive on home kits in the last week. I expect all hell to be let loose when schools start back. I fear we are going to really start seeing some serious effects of the current outbreak in the next few weeks as the virus migrates south. The numbers out of Florida are not good, and Texas and California are starting to really show some high numbers.

This variant is showing to be really transmittable. It may be 50% milder, but is that going to help when it spreads at 300% of Delta's transmission rate, and it seems to have no problem using the vaccinated as hosts/
 
TriJets
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:23 pm

The largest drive-through testing center in my city reported a 40% positivity rate this week.

At my hospital things have been pretty insane. This was a very busy hospital before COVID hit...this latest surge has been very difficult. Wait up to 2 hours for an ambulance, 10+ hours in the ED. Codes coming in and being worked on the floor (not literally on the floor, but the trauma bays are full so they are worked in a normal ED room instead). ER is full of very sick people due to backlog of ICU rooms available. Hospital telling us not to test unless we are symptomatic.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:13 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:

You want more lockdowns? Do you work from home?

If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns. We need 90%+ of the resources being used on Covid19 patients for other medical matters. Alas, we have to get through this horrid wave first. I fully realize no one believes how bad it is in the hospitals. My friends and relatives working the coronavirus wards are shocked at the patients being sent home by the ER with oxygen and a few pills as... there really isn't any other choice in some areas (patients who would have been hospitalized before).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

My relative's hospital isn't bad, but so many patients, my relative had to work 11 days straight (recall, hospital shifts are 12 to 17 hours) as so many staff are retiring as they just have no more empathy to give. 85% of patients unvacs:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

When this is done we'll have to get everyone keeping their new year's resolution to lose weight and somehow increase vaccinations.

Lightsaber


Lockdowns might help., but it seems Omicron is ready to run the gauntlet. Here in NC, I have had many friends that have tested positive on home kits in the last week. I expect all hell to be let loose when schools start back. I fear we are going to really start seeing some serious effects of the current outbreak in the next few weeks as the virus migrates south. The numbers out of Florida are not good, and Texas and California are starting to really show some high numbers.

This variant is showing to be really transmittable. It may be 50% milder, but is that going to help when it spreads at 300% of Delta's transmission rate, and it seems to have no problem using the vaccinated as hosts/

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/28 ... s.amp.html
And Omicron is still only ~59% of all new American cases
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns.

To what end? It would neither stop nor slow cases.
 
777luver
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:36 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns.

To what end? It would neither stop nor slow cases.


It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:06 am

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns. We need 90%+ of the resources being used on Covid19 patients for other medical matters. Alas, we have to get through this horrid wave first. I fully realize no one believes how bad it is in the hospitals. My friends and relatives working the coronavirus wards are shocked at the patients being sent home by the ER with oxygen and a few pills as... there really isn't any other choice in some areas (patients who would have been hospitalized before).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

My relative's hospital isn't bad, but so many patients, my relative had to work 11 days straight (recall, hospital shifts are 12 to 17 hours) as so many staff are retiring as they just have no more empathy to give. 85% of patients unvacs:
https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/

When this is done we'll have to get everyone keeping their new year's resolution to lose weight and somehow increase vaccinations.

Lightsaber


Lockdowns might help., but it seems Omicron is ready to run the gauntlet. Here in NC, I have had many friends that have tested positive on home kits in the last week. I expect all hell to be let loose when schools start back. I fear we are going to really start seeing some serious effects of the current outbreak in the next few weeks as the virus migrates south. The numbers out of Florida are not good, and Texas and California are starting to really show some high numbers.

This variant is showing to be really transmittable. It may be 50% milder, but is that going to help when it spreads at 300% of Delta's transmission rate, and it seems to have no problem using the vaccinated as hosts/

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/28 ... s.amp.html
And Omicron is still only ~59% of all new American cases


That number was from last Tuesday.

We will have to see what it is as this week goes on.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:07 am

777luver wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If one looks at the United stateshospitalizatons, we *need* lockdowns.

To what end? It would neither stop nor slow cases.


It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......

Lockdowns mitigate hospital loading. They work amazingly well. It is obvious a week+ after lockdown and obvious when done.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart

Late edit: Omicron is just getting started, look at the rate of increase.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
To what end? It would neither stop nor slow cases.


It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......

Lockdowns mitigate hospital loading. They work amazingly well. It is obvious a week+ after lockdown and obvious when done.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart



Wow, I can't wait to see how much the US beats out the UK and france in cases per million in the next 2 weeks.

Lockdowns are too political. At this point the Party B is in a mood for "i told you so" and Party C are in a mood of "we blame you because we don't understand".
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:36 am

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:

It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......

Lockdowns mitigate hospital loading. They work amazingly well. It is obvious a week+ after lockdown and obvious when done.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart



Wow, I can't wait to see how much the US beats out the UK and france in cases per million in the next 2 weeks.

Lockdowns are too political. At this point the Party B is in a mood for "i told you so" and Party C are in a mood of "we blame you because we don't understand".

Lockdowns are far too political. I understand they have economic impacts. My work is implementing a defacto lockdown because everyone is right now doing the required return to school testing and many cases found. (Range from "I needed a test" for vaccinated to know they had it to a friend with Diarrhea and vomit, nothing for the hospital yet).

I just ordered my team not to come in without management permission and we need all hands in the lab to prove our new avionics meet promise!

But more importantly, we cannot have our whole team sick.

Lightsaber
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:22 am

[twoid][/twoid]
lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
To what end? It would neither stop nor slow cases.


It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......

Lockdowns mitigate hospital loading. They work amazingly well. It is obvious a week+ after lockdown and obvious when done.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart

Late edit: Omicron is just getting started, look at the rate of increase.

It is FAR too late and Omicron much too transmissible to be affected by a restriction-weary population. Late-January is the estimate for a peak in cases in the US, and Europe is already farther along than the US. Mask up and get vaxxed if you already haven’t. That’s all you can do at this point.
 
LOT767301ER
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:04 am

flyguy89 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:

Mask up and get vaxxed if you already haven’t. That’s all you can do at this point.


I have a good streak going now and I feel great. Havent been tested even once during the whole pandemic and dont wear my mask anywhere except when flying. Sans vaccines the key is to do exactly the opposite what the CDC/Fauci says to do.
 
Pi7472000
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:05 am

Lockdowns help save lives and lower the strain on hospitals. In the U.S. we need lockdown again as the unvaccinated have put huge strains on our resources. This pandemic is not over, and with omicron and the poor vaccination rates in many parts of the U.S. lockdowns are necessary again in the U.S. this winter. We need to have a much better social safety net in the U.S. No person should have to sacrifice their health for their economic well being. We also need to expand vaccine passport. It was great to see places like San Francisco require vaccine passport for service.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:15 pm

To those who have been lucky so far, I hope you continue to be lucky. For example, most unvaccinated won't get Mumps thanks to so many vaccinated, but then...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... r-children

Most doctors have never seen a mumps case, researchers noted.

But epidemiologists said doctors should continue to test for mumps, because recent outbreaks have occurred in vaccinated adolescents and some children.
...
The prevalence of mumps declined more than 99% since 1967, from more than 150,000 cases per year to about 200 in 2003, after a vaccine for the disease was introduced. In 1977, it became a routine part of childhood immunizations.


But... It looks like the mumps vaccines deteriorate after 27 years with a HUGE variable interval:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5899613/

we estimated that vaccine-derived immune protection against mumps wanes on average 27 (95% confidence interval: 16 to 51) years post-vaccination.

I was recently sent a copy of that paper (dead tree form) and acted on it to make sure those around me are safe.

Those who play the disease lottery cannot win by not vaccinating, they can only lose. I really wish people didn't get long haul symptoms, but it looks like the prevalence of long haul symptoms are just less in the lungs. The doctors I know working the coronavirus wards are seeing Omicron triggering more first cases of atrial fibrillation. I'll be curious to read any papers that come out on that as the disease is, like any coronavirus, likely to cause nerve damage.
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/202 ... e-february

flyguy89 wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
lightsaber wrote:
777luver wrote:

It's been proven to not work. Maybe at the start when we didn't know what we were dealing with but now we do, nearly 2 years on......

Lockdowns mitigate hospital loading. They work amazingly well. It is obvious a week+ after lockdown and obvious when done.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/curr ... ?tab=chart

Late edit: Omicron is just getting started, look at the rate of increase.

It is FAR too late and Omicron much too transmissible to be affected by a restriction-weary population. Late-January is the estimate for a peak in cases in the US, and Europe is already farther along than the US. Mask up and get vaxxed if you already haven’t. That’s all you can do at this point.

Unfortunately, you are probably right.
I had a relative just finish 11 days straight in the coronavirus wards because so few doctors will volunteer for the work anymore and getting nurses is even tougher.

If late January is the estimated peak (I personally think it will keep going and peak in February), the hospitals will be very overloaded.

I agree people will not accept lockdowns. It is literally every person for themselves. However, areas have hospitals that cannot keep up. Recall hospitalizations and deaths are very lagging indicators:
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing ... 3/omicronc
"We believe that the next four to six weeks are really going to be a terrible point in this crisis, and it's potentially going to be the worst part of the whole two-year fight," Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said.

As a result of surging cases and hospitalizations, many hospitals are implementing new rules to slow the spread of the virus, and others are delaying care.

For example, Mayo Clinic announced that all visitors and patients will be required to wear surgical masks when entering the hospital.



The reality is, we need to reduce the care given to coronavirus patients to expend resources on other patients. This crisis has just gone on too long. I know my relative's hospital, during the last wave, so many patients were sent home with oxygen and pills. They don't do as well, but that has become, for many, the new standard of care. You *really* need a friend or relative to take care of you during those times as people just do not realize how painful a coronavirus case can be.

Lightsaber
 
acavpics
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:23 pm

I'm surprised that nobody has pointed this out on here, but S. Africa's omicron wave seems to have declined almost as quickly as it grew. With that data, is it fair to expect the US, Europe etc to follow a similar trend?
Perhaps, we will see a peak sometime within the next 2 weeks instead of months?
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:41 pm

acavpics wrote:
I'm surprised that nobody has pointed this out on here, but S. Africa's omicron wave seems to have declined almost as quickly as it grew. With that data, is it fair to expect the US, Europe etc to follow a similar trend?
Perhaps, we will see a peak sometime within the next 2 weeks instead of months?



It is difficult to forecast. From what I know, this one travels quick and fast.
I think we will have at least 6 weeks, just because of the propagation to rural areas, but the cities may go quickly. Especially the ones that sent kids back to school this week.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:00 pm

acavpics wrote:
I'm surprised that nobody has pointed this out on here, but S. Africa's omicron wave seems to have declined almost as quickly as it grew. With that data, is it fair to expect the US, Europe etc to follow a similar trend?
Perhaps, we will see a peak sometime within the next 2 weeks instead of months?

As others mentioned, South Africa do lockdown.
And in the US, Omicron haven't even finished replacing Delta yet
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I'm surprised that nobody has pointed this out on here, but S. Africa's omicron wave seems to have declined almost as quickly as it grew. With that data, is it fair to expect the US, Europe etc to follow a similar trend?
Perhaps, we will see a peak sometime within the next 2 weeks instead of months?



It is difficult to forecast. From what I know, this one travels quick and fast.
I think we will have at least 6 weeks, just because of the propagation to rural areas, but the cities may go quickly. Especially the ones that sent kids back to school this week.

The lockdowns worked spectacularly well in Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. However, the non-locked down countries are spiking very high.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~BEL~AUT

There will be a peak, but we haven't , without lockdowns, found it. The advantage of lockdowns is to resupply the hospitals too.
We already have political fighting for the limited anti-body treatments:
https://www.flgov.com/2022/01/03/govern ... antibodies

If you chart read my first link, the USA is at 0.11% of the population getting infected per day (but we are under-testing, but a lot, though not as horribly as South Africa where I must question if the drop in cases isn't influenced by the testing rather than the propagation of the disease. Seriously, when 30% of the tests are positive, that means cases could be multiples higher and you don't know it. Testing must be under 10% of the cases positive and even then that means testing is so difficult to get that the real number is higher by a significant amount):
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

The UK and France are below ideal levels of testing, but at least have a grip on the true side of the problem.

Assuming the UK leads and it hasn't peaked, yet despite a high vaccination rate:
It looks like the UK started peaking exactly a week earlier and isn't close to the top:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Link on just below 50% boosted in UK: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+type%29

New York is exactly a week behind it and will be the first to peak in the USA (hasn't yet):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
Pick your favorite state:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Texas and much of the nation looks to be a week behind New York (or two weeks behind the UK):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

Since they are so well boosted, the UK is a best case scenario. Everyone else, buckle up. We're not on track for a US peak in January at the current trends.

Lightsaber
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:53 pm

Dr John review of South Africa omicron study:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EDBJBmlvXY

Makes me even more relaxed that omicron has appeared - seems to me a good thing to have happened. Kind of out of the delta fire into the far more benign omicron frying pan.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:08 pm

Massachusetts ERs slammed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/er-pr ... NewsSearch

“We are overwhelmed,” the statement said. “Our Emergency Departments are at critical capacity and things will get worse.”

It is a milder variant with only 20% to 40% of the hospitalizations, but the complete Wild West antics is going to create one hell of a surge. We'll start the year with a holiday surge and have one hell of a work and school surge.

Lightsaber
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The lockdowns worked spectacularly well in Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. However, the non-locked down countries are spiking very high.

Huh? Neither Belgium nor Germany have implemented “lockdowns.” And I would question the spectacular success since the Netherlands has been posting similar or higher case numbers per million as no-lockdown Czech Republic and Belgium.

https://www.euronews.com/amp/2021/12/31 ... wn-at-home

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-lockdown

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59502180

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no ... 021-12-19/
 
TriJets
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Massachusetts ERs slammed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/er-pr ... NewsSearch

“We are overwhelmed,” the statement said. “Our Emergency Departments are at critical capacity and things will get worse.”

It is a milder variant with only 20% to 40% of the hospitalizations, but the complete Wild West antics is going to create one hell of a surge. We'll start the year with a holiday surge and have one hell of a work and school surge.

Lightsaber


Living this reality now, although not in Massachusetts. The ER is a scary place to be right now.
 
77Phoebe
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:56 pm

I would like to see some member of a health service, somewhere, come up with the number of deaths that lockdown causes, two years on I simply don't believe they do any good at all.

Sorry, I'm wrong, they do do good, they benefit politicians, sparing them bad headlines. Covid deaths are measurable the deaths caused by lockdowns re: suicides, child abuse, drug and alcohol deaths, missed heart disease and cancer diagnosis, ongoing child development issues not so much.

I believe none of these measures (bar the vaccines - and they aren't that good.) have done any good whatsoever, apart from moving deaths from the ancient, unhealthy and chronically sick to the younger members of society.
 
TriJets
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:05 pm

77Phoebe wrote:
I would like to see some member of a health service, somewhere, come up with the number of deaths that lockdown causes, two years on I simply don't believe they do any good at all.

Sorry, I'm wrong, they do do good, they benefit politicians, sparing them bad headlines. Covid deaths are measurable the deaths caused by lockdowns re: suicides, child abuse, drug and alcohol deaths, missed heart disease and cancer diagnosis, ongoing child development issues not so much.

I believe none of these measures (bar the vaccines - and they aren't that good.) have done any good whatsoever, apart from moving deaths from the ancient, unhealthy and chronically sick to the younger members of society.


That number will likely be impossible to tally. That said, hospitals being full of COVID patients have caused tertiary deaths as people have been afraid to seek treatment for other life-threatening medical issues (chest pain, for example) and have died at home. Or, on the flip side, people have gone to the hospital for treatable illnesses but have had their care delayed or have had substandard care due to a lack of available beds and overworked hospital staff. This is the situation that I am dealing with right now. People with serious ailments that normally would get immediate treatment (like that chest pain I mentioned earlier) are sent to the waiting room for hours because the beds are all full of very sick COVID patients and there is nowhere to put anyone else.

With universal vaccinations and masking the hospitals would not be in this situation.
 
Newark727
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:24 am

77Phoebe wrote:
I would like to see some member of a health service, somewhere, come up with the number of deaths that lockdown causes, two years on I simply don't believe they do any good at all.

Sorry, I'm wrong, they do do good, they benefit politicians, sparing them bad headlines. Covid deaths are measurable the deaths caused by lockdowns re: suicides, child abuse, drug and alcohol deaths, missed heart disease and cancer diagnosis, ongoing child development issues not so much.

I believe none of these measures (bar the vaccines - and they aren't that good.) have done any good whatsoever, apart from moving deaths from the ancient, unhealthy and chronically sick to the younger members of society.


To give this a little perspective, pre-COVID suicide numbers were something like 44,000/year in the U.S.

That would have to have increased more than 10x to match COVID has done even with lockdowns, vaccinations, and some of the fastest and most aggressive medical research in recent history. So the fact is, whatever your number is, it may still have been a fair trade under the circumstances.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:51 am

I think the figure still holds that if 75% of the total population had completed vaccinations and boosters we would not be seeing the peak we will be facing in the next several weeks.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:14 am

TriJets wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Massachusetts ERs slammed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/er-pr ... NewsSearch

“We are overwhelmed,” the statement said. “Our Emergency Departments are at critical capacity and things will get worse.”

It is a milder variant with only 20% to 40% of the hospitalizations, but the complete Wild West antics is going to create one hell of a surge. We'll start the year with a holiday surge and have one hell of a work and school surge.

Lightsaber


Living this reality now, although not in Massachusetts. The ER is a scary place to be right now.

I can only imagine. My relative is off after 11 days in a row from the coronavirus ward. Not a word about it. That means it was bad.

My heart goes out to all medical professionals having to deal with this. It amazes me the deniers who don't understand how bad this will get.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:37 am

Illinois hospitals overloaded:
“The unvaccinated are the ones filling up 85% of our COVID-19 hospital beds and 95% of our ICU beds and nearly 100% of our ventilators,” Pritzker said.
...
Pritzker said that the hospital admissions are higher this winter than they were last winter before vaccines were widely available.

https://www.lakemchenryscanner.com/2022 ... -hospital/

Part of the issue will be hospital workers getting sick.
500 of 13000 in one system:
https://www.kmbc.com/article/covid-19-s ... /38657787#


Texas Children's hospital at a new peak, of 70 patients. Two weeks ago, only 15, a third very young.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/healt ... f425768cc4

It has truly begun. We won't even see peak hospitalizations until weeks after peak cases. We do not get to pretend we are at peak cases:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~BEL

Lightsaber
 
acavpics
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:44 am

casinterest wrote:
I think we will have at least 6 weeks, just because of the propagation to rural areas, but the cities may go quickly. Especially the ones that sent kids back to school this week.


So is it safe to say that states such as Massachusetts and NY, which encountered the surge early on (November-ish) can expect to peak by mid-Jan?

I'm sure Texas, Florida, and other southern and central states still have a long way to go and may peak as late as next month.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:17 am

A hospital in Ft Lauderdale had to shut down the maternity ward as too many staff were sick. Considering how bad coronavirus has been in pregnant women, this only makes sense:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fort- ... NewsSearch


acavpics wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I think we will have at least 6 weeks, just because of the propagation to rural areas, but the cities may go quickly. Especially the ones that sent kids back to school this week.


So is it safe to say that states such as Massachusetts and NY, which encountered the surge early on (November-ish) can expect to peak by mid-Jan?

I'm sure Texas, Florida, and other southern and central states still have a long way to go and may peak as late as next month.

New York is on track to peak a week after the UK. The UK hasn't yet peaked. There is no safe to say...

Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator that max out after the peak (as some patients need long term care):
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/03 ... icron/amp/
Experts say it’s still unclear whether the current surge will overtake last year’s numbers of infections, hospitalizations or deaths.


In my estimate, Texas is two weeks or so behind New York. I posted above links on ERs straining. South Africa locked down to mitigate the peak. We are taking all the risk.

Lightsaber

ps, notice the extreme high positivity rate. That means most people who need a test are not getting tested. This will unfortunately get far worse.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
South Africa locked down to mitigate the peak. We are taking all the risk.

Where are you getting your info exactly?

From Dec. 16:
South Africa's National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) has retained its lockdown at 'adjusted level 1', or the lowest of a five-tier system of restrictions, in the battle on the Omicron variant, health authorities said on Thursday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/so ... 021-12-16/

South Africa has been at this level since Oct. 1. Level 1 is simply a curfew. No adjustments were made when Omicron arrived.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2022

Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:08 am

flyguy89 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
South Africa locked down to mitigate the peak. We are taking all the risk.

Where are you getting your info exactly?

From Dec. 16:
South Africa's National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) has retained its lockdown at 'adjusted level 1', or the lowest of a five-tier system of restrictions, in the battle on the Omicron variant, health authorities said on Thursday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/so ... 021-12-16/

South Africa has been at this level since Oct. 1. Level 1 is simply a curfew. No adjustments were made when Omicron arrived.

"Simply a curfew" is above and beyond the highest level of restriction in many countries along Western Pacific
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