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Braybuddy
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Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:36 pm

Putin is now upping the ante:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/ ... ons-a76116

It's not like Putin to paint himself into corners, but I can't see how NATO can give in to his increasing demands.
 
kelval
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:41 pm

They know that this is not up to debate or negociation.
With this, it's as if they are actually looking for a war.
 
johns624
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:53 pm

Romania and Bulgaria today, Poland and Slovakia next week. Czech Republic and the Baltic states the week after. Maybe the Germans can give back the east next month?
 
luckyone
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:57 pm

Putin et al must be having some concerns about their hold on power at home.
 
wingman
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:05 pm

I said it in jest a while back but, really, squeeze the oligarchs by the cajoolies and the Putin head will pop off. For every square kilometer of terrain they take London, Paris and the US should confiscate $1B in assets. Then turn off that damn gas pipe. All this talk of "sanctions" just drives the same business right into the existing money laundering schemes managed (or at least tacitly condoned) by London, Paris and the US.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:27 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
Putin is now upping the ante:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/ ... ons-a76116

It's not like Putin to paint himself into corners, but I can't see how NATO can give in to his increasing demands.


demands are getting more ridiculous by the day.
 
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Vio
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:37 pm

Once again my home country, Romania, has become a pawn in a game of chess that is not only getting tiresome but also worrisome. The USSR (and now Russia), EU and NATO have all failed Romania and the former Eastern block nations. Romanians are also partly to blame for the current situation.

1. The USSR treated their communist allies like a never-ending source of income, ruled with an iron fist and used it as a buffer zone against the West. If they had been "kinder" to the Warsaw Pact countries, there may not have been a desire for Eastern European nations to jump at the first opportunity to join NATO. They could have banded together in a more "neutral" stance and still offer Russia that buffer zone, but on their own terms, not dictated by someone in London, Paris or Washington.

(I left Ottawa out on purpose, since I'm Canadian now, because our Liberal government and Trudeau is completely incompetent both on his foreign policy and his support for the Canadian armed forces, which are now at an all time low).

2. The European Union is probably the number one to blame for pro-Russian sentiment in former communist EU states. The economic disparity between countries is unconceivable and unforgivable. It has plunged millions of people into extreme poverty. Prices rose to "EU standards", yet income remained the same.

3. The USA had "an agreement" with Russia after the collapse of the USSR. I believe there was an understanding that NATO expansion would be halted. It has not and now NATO is cornering Russia. Are we to blame them? Again, look at point 1. Maybe. After all, as some have said, Romania is an independent nation and has a right for self determination. With that being said, and considering its geographic location, any decision it makes has consequences.

Russia can't demand that Romania exit NATO. That ship has sailed a long time ago. Now, the one billion dollar question is: Will the US, especially the Democrats, and other NATO countries step in to defend Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic Nations, etc if this conflict spills over? I hope so...

"You corner The Bear, it will eventually strike back"... and I'm afraid the small Eastern European NATO members will be used as bait...
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:01 pm

I think Putin wants out if the sanctions that are actually crippling the economy of Russia.
If Russian production and prices were so effective, he would not be pushing so hard to open the the market.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... ng-russia/

Russia has massively reduced its dollar holdings while China has not. Despite repeated agreements to use national currencies in mutual trade, dollars and euros continue to dominate. While one Chinese bank has joined Russia’s alternative to the SWIFT payments system, no others have followed. Just 23 foreign banks have signed up, but only 12 use the system. China’s alternative has about four times the number of members. Yet in 2021, Chinese bank usage of SWIFT reached its highest level since 2015.

Technology and finance represent the most vulnerable areas for additional sanctions if Putin invades Ukraine again. The potential for greater cooperation by European businesses is promising. They could even help convince the non-EU Swiss to go along.


I think Putin is pushing all this saber rattling to intimidate the rest of the world, and I think the rest of the world has to hold back and see where this goes.

I do not envy the position of the countries that Russia is trying to use as pawns in all of this, but it makes a great argument for why sanctions are in place for Russia already.


If Russia is to go forward with attacks in the Ukraine and other countries, then measured responses need to be made. For Ukraine which is not a NATO country, sanctions may be the best way to continue.

If Russia attempts an attack in Bulgaria or Romania, then that will be an attack on a NATO aligned country, and should be met with swift and harsh responses.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:10 pm

https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promi ... matters-2/

This article is fascinating because it analyzes the controversy about what exactly was told to the Russians regarding the issue of NATO enlargement.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:16 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters-2/

This article is fascinating because it analyzes the controversy about what exactly was told to the Russians regarding the issue of NATO enlargement.



Interesting quote from the article

By contrast, many in Moscow (especially since the ascension of Vladimir Putin to power) view the security of Russia as dependent on the insecurity of its neighbors.


This is not good for the rest of the countries, and this is why those countries that have sought security have joined NATO. They do not want to go back to the bad old way of doing things.

As Vio pointed out below, that doesn't mean things are great right now, but give it time. Here in the US, I hear more and more about how wonderful Croatia and Bulgaria are to visit. This will bring more and more opportunities.

Russia is stuck in the bad ole ways of forceful control
 
luckyone
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:21 pm

casinterest wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters-2/

This article is fascinating because it analyzes the controversy about what exactly was told to the Russians regarding the issue of NATO enlargement.



Interesting quote from the article

By contrast, many in Moscow (especially since the ascension of Vladimir Putin to power) view the security of Russia as dependent on the insecurity of its neighbors.


This is not good for the rest of the countries, and this is why those countries that have sought security have joined NATO. They do not want to go back to the bad old way of doing things.

As Vio pointed out below, that doesn't mean things are great right now, but give it time. Here in the US, I hear more and more about how wonderful Croatia and Bulgaria are to visit. This will bring more and more opportunities.

Russia is stuck in the bad ole ways of forceful control

To be fair to the facts, Russia historically has not functioned well without it.
 
ItnStln
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:43 pm

johns624 wrote:
Romania and Bulgaria today, Poland and Slovakia next week. Czech Republic and the Baltic states the week after. Maybe the Germans can give back the east next month?

I came here to post something very similar! If Putin is given Romania and Bulgaria, he will keep on pushing westward until he is at the Atlantic Ocean.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:47 pm

Putin is trying to negotiate. He makes all these threats, gets everyone on edge, then offers to stop and drop his demands and "allow" the status quo to prevail... IF the West also agrees to "the status quo" with no NATO ever for Ukraine and other boundary nations, etc.

Tugg
 
ItnStln
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:47 pm

Vio wrote:
3. The USA had "an agreement" with Russia after the collapse of the USSR. I believe there was an understanding that NATO expansion would be halted. It has not and now NATO is cornering Russia. Are we to blame them? Again, look at point 1. Maybe. After all, as some have said, Romania is an independent nation and has a right for self determination. With that being said, and considering its geographic location, any decision it makes has consequences.

Russia can't demand that Romania exit NATO. That ship has sailed a long time ago. Now, the one billion dollar question is: Will the US, especially the Democrats, and other NATO countries step in to defend Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic Nations, etc if this conflict spills over? I hope so...

If I am not mistaken that agreement was at the end of World War II. Unless, of course, there were similar agreements made at the end of World War II and the Cold War.
If Romania and Bulgaria are NATO countries and they are attacked by Russia, NATO is, under Article 5, obligated to defend those countries.
 
ItnStln
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:48 pm

luckyone wrote:
casinterest wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters-2/

This article is fascinating because it analyzes the controversy about what exactly was told to the Russians regarding the issue of NATO enlargement.



Interesting quote from the article

By contrast, many in Moscow (especially since the ascension of Vladimir Putin to power) view the security of Russia as dependent on the insecurity of its neighbors.


This is not good for the rest of the countries, and this is why those countries that have sought security have joined NATO. They do not want to go back to the bad old way of doing things.

As Vio pointed out below, that doesn't mean things are great right now, but give it time. Here in the US, I hear more and more about how wonderful Croatia and Bulgaria are to visit. This will bring more and more opportunities.

Russia is stuck in the bad ole ways of forceful control

To be fair to the facts, Russia historically has not functioned well without it.

Without what?
 
Newark727
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:03 pm

ItnStln wrote:
Without what?


An empire, I guess. Though my take would be that for Russia historically, controlling the largest geographic area hasn't always coincided with the actual strength of the government.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:25 pm

ItnStln wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Romania and Bulgaria today, Poland and Slovakia next week. Czech Republic and the Baltic states the week after. Maybe the Germans can give back the east next month?

I came here to post something very similar! If Putin is given Romania and Bulgaria, he will keep on pushing westward until he is at the Atlantic Ocean.


That's why appeasement politics doesn't work.
 
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STT757
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:30 pm

After the fall of the Soviet Union the United States of America gave Russia Billions of dollars in aid to the Russian Government to prevent the Russian people from starving. Russia is ungrateful and I would ask for our money back with interest.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/after-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union-the-us-tried-to-help-russians/2015/05/04/cc4f7c20-f043-11e4-8666-a1d756d0218e_story.html

Russia is now run by consortiums of criminal organizations which continue to pilfer the nations assets and natural resources.
 
ItnStln
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:04 pm

Newark727 wrote:
ItnStln wrote:
Without what?


An empire, I guess. Though my take would be that for Russia historically, controlling the largest geographic area hasn't always coincided with the actual strength of the government.

That makes sense.
 
ItnStln
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:05 pm

Dutchy wrote:
ItnStln wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Romania and Bulgaria today, Poland and Slovakia next week. Czech Republic and the Baltic states the week after. Maybe the Germans can give back the east next month?

I came here to post something very similar! If Putin is given Romania and Bulgaria, he will keep on pushing westward until he is at the Atlantic Ocean.


That's why appeasement politics doesn't work.

True, which is why appeasement politics needs to stop.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:52 pm

kelval wrote:
They know that this is not up to debate or negociation.
With this, it's as if they are actually looking for a war.


Uh, you mean the Russian actions to date, to include the WMD attack in Britain, the invasion of the Donbass, and Georgia, the illegal occupation of Transdneistra, the attempt to tamper with the OPCW and Doping Commissions, assassinations in Germany and Turkey and kinetic attacks on NATO countries and the attempts to conduct coups with Macedonia and others AREN'T acts of a completely hostile actor on the world stage?
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:52 pm

ItnStln wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
ItnStln wrote:
I came here to post something very similar! If Putin is given Romania and Bulgaria, he will keep on pushing westward until he is at the Atlantic Ocean.


That's why appeasement politics doesn't work.

True, which is why appeasement politics needs to stop.


Someone needs to tell the US Senate, who recently used the dreaded filibuster to stop the sanction of NordStream2.
 
johns624
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:28 pm

FlapOperator wrote:

Uh, you mean the Russian actions to date, to include the WMD attack in Britain, the invasion of the Donbass, and Georgia, the illegal occupation of Transdneistra, the attempt to tamper with the OPCW and Doping Commissions, assassinations in Germany and Turkey and kinetic attacks on NATO countries and the attempts to conduct coups with Macedonia and others AREN'T acts of a completely hostile actor on the world stage?
Death by a thousand cuts...
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:32 pm

johns624 wrote:
Death by a thousand cuts...


Nope. Specific policy decisions by a number of Euro governments, and the Obama and Biden Administrations, resulting in entirely predictable results.

Had we continued making Russian oil and gas a loss maker for Russia as we did during the Trump Administration, Putin would be forced to act with a dwindling bank account, and prioritize his aggression or his military adventurism.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:07 am

FlapOperator wrote:
Had we continued making Russian oil and gas a loss maker for Russia as we did during the Trump Administration, Putin would be forced to act with a dwindling bank account, and prioritize his aggression or his military adventurism.


How did we do that again?

Is that why Putin was always so openly supportive of Trump and why Trump never dared criticize him?
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:52 am

This us heartbreaking about Ukraine. They just want to live their life. After the 2014 revolution, Ukraine was geopolitically like a stray dog looking for an owner to take pity on it and save it, having been abused by its former owner, Russia. This dog was trying to get the US to become its master (I say this with respect for Ukraine and her people. They are currently poor and powerless. They need a patron.) Unfortunately, the dream of westernization is probably over. They cannot become a stable western democracy on Russia's doorstep. Putin won't stand for it. So unfortunately he is taking away Ukraine's future, just as China took away Hong Kong's future, and currently threatens Taiwan.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:02 am

Tugger wrote:
Putin is trying to negotiate. He makes all these threats, gets everyone on edge, then offers to stop and drop his demands and "allow" the status quo to prevail... IF the West also agrees to "the status quo" with no NATO ever for Ukraine and other boundary nations, etc.

Tugg


This is all it’s about. Realpolitik shellgame. Truth be told, to Putin sanctions are immaterial so long as they don’t threaten his hold on power or ability to influence former Soviet republics.
 
Dogman
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:25 am

LCDFlight wrote:
This us heartbreaking about Ukraine. They just want to live their life. After the 2014 revolution, Ukraine was geopolitically like a stray dog looking for an owner to take pity on it and save it, having been abused by its former owner, Russia. This dog was trying to get the US to become its master (I say this with respect for Ukraine and her people. They are currently poor and powerless. They need a patron.) Unfortunately, the dream of westernization is probably over. They cannot become a stable western democracy on Russia's doorstep. Putin won't stand for it. So unfortunately he is taking away Ukraine's future, just as China took away Hong Kong's future, and currently threatens Taiwan.


Hmm, speaking "with respect for Ukraine and her people" you've just managed to offend and belittle them. People who can take to the streets and overthrow an authoritarian government do not look "for an owner to take pity" on them. If you ever get to Ukraine I would not recommend you to say there something like this aloud. In reality, everything depends on them now. If they fight then they will get help, and have a good chance of stopping Russia. If they decide not to fight then nobody will fight for them It will be their choice. Yes, there is a lot of confusions in people's minds there, just like in Vio's mind here. But desire for independence and resistance to the Russian empire was ever present in Ukrainian people, and despite all the repressions was never fully extinguished.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:51 am

Dutchy wrote:
demands are getting more ridiculous by the day.


That's old negotiating tactics: demand the impossible and outrageous in a hope to get some concessions. Besides that, they sure have noticed there is a receptive audience, always ready to accomodate whatever nonsese Kremlin comes up with. The first in a delusional belief that by being at Putin's feet and enabling him to emulate Hitler they will undo their "eternal guilt", the second possibly not seeing anything wrong about Russian attitudes per se, because that's how they behave in francophone Africa themselves.

Dogman wrote:
But desire for independence and resistance to the Russian empire was ever present in Ukrainian people, and despite all the repressions was never fully extinguished.

Then why was Ukraine not invited to the meeting between US and Russia meeting on Ukraine to show - on a symbolic level - that there will be no second Yalta, which is something Putin wants. Instead, Biden is probably getting the same ill advice Obama was receiving in his, criminally naive, first adminstration.
 
GDB
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:20 am

FlapOperator wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Death by a thousand cuts...


Nope. Specific policy decisions by a number of Euro governments, and the Obama and Biden Administrations, resulting in entirely predictable results.

Had we continued making Russian oil and gas a loss maker for Russia as we did during the Trump Administration, Putin would be forced to act with a dwindling bank account, and prioritize his aggression or his military adventurism.


Very selective history, as was stated above after that WMD attack on a UK city, the US President, who hardly had a bad word to say about Putin, quite the opposite mostly, only went with sanctions as did NATO and EU nations, including Germany, after facing a threat of mass resignations from his security advisers, his Defense Secretary went not long after finally sick of having to walk the Buffoon in chief through everything, all the time.

Have we also forgotten Putin’s first foray beyond his borders? Georgia in 2008. Who was in office then? He got away with that one, thus emboldening him.
Gormless George who had sunk so much US blood, treasure and prestige into Iraq, by that alone strengthening Putin.
Don’t remember any response that made Putin pause then.

Though before we get too smug about how only the US and UK are the main actors providing moral and material support for Ukraine, aside from the widespread Putin love in of the GOP since Trump, the Conservative Party in the UK are donated to by Russian billionaires, you don’t get to be a billionaire in Russia without thief in chief Vlad, so what chance of them also going after the ‘Square Mile’ cesspit of dictators, organized crime etc of the City Of London.
I would prefer a more robust, across the board response from both the EU and NATO, however are the ones who have not responded the same way as the US and UK are less vulnerable to long term political corruption and influence from Russian interests?

Is Nord Stream 2 worse for negative influence over party donations here, or capturing a large chunk of a US political party that is embracing the same authoritarian ideas and vast corruption of Putin?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:09 am

luckyone wrote:
Putin et al must be having some concerns about their hold on power at home.


Or he is simply losing his mind. I am thinking the final scenes of "downfall". He certainly is old enough to start showing cognitive problems.

Best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:08 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
ItnStln wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

That's why appeasement politics doesn't work.

True, which is why appeasement politics needs to stop.


Someone needs to tell the US Senate, who recently used the dreaded filibuster to stop the sanction of NordStream2.


Fun fact: if NordStream 2 gets canned, it won't cost Russia or the Russian investors one cent. There is a bilateral investment protection treaty in place. Maybe the Senate just wised up after realising that stopping the pipeline would do russian investors a favor. As the Sber bank made public in 2017, the pipeline isn't going to turn a profit.

But kick them off Swift. Hard to pay gas coming through NS2 without it, but technically it would still be operating. So no compensation payments.

Best regards
Thomas
 
santi319
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
luckyone wrote:
Putin et al must be having some concerns about their hold on power at home.


Or he is simply losing his mind. I am thinking the final scenes of "downfall". He certainly is old enough to start showing cognitive problems.

Best regards
Thomas


This.. give it a few and he will start sinking himself. This ain’t the 40s anymore. Nobody is gonna follow a delirious grandpa.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:29 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Fun fact: if NordStream 2 gets canned, it won't cost Russia or the Russian investors one cent.


Fun fact II.: No one held a gun against Merkel's head to start the NS2.

tommy1808 wrote:
But kick them off Swift.


Germany is - predictably - against that too.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed scepticism about cutting Russian banks off from the Swift global payments system in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-01-21/
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:04 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Fun fact: if NordStream 2 gets canned, it won't cost Russia or the Russian investors one cent.


Fun fact II.: No one held a gun against Merkel's head to start the NS2.


One of her many mistakes.

tommy1808 wrote:
But kick them off Swift.


Germany is - predictably - against that too.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed scepticism about cutting Russian banks off from the Swift global payments system in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ge ... 022-01-21/


So are lots of countries since it would do more economic damage than a small scale nuclear exchange.
I still think let them have it.

Best regards
Thomas
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:28 pm

Dogman wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This us heartbreaking about Ukraine. They just want to live their life. After the 2014 revolution, Ukraine was geopolitically like a stray dog looking for an owner to take pity on it and save it, having been abused by its former owner, Russia. This dog was trying to get the US to become its master (I say this with respect for Ukraine and her people. They are currently poor and powerless. They need a patron.) Unfortunately, the dream of westernization is probably over. They cannot become a stable western democracy on Russia's doorstep. Putin won't stand for it. So unfortunately he is taking away Ukraine's future, just as China took away Hong Kong's future, and currently threatens Taiwan.


Hmm, speaking "with respect for Ukraine and her people" you've just managed to offend and belittle them. People who can take to the streets and overthrow an authoritarian government do not look "for an owner to take pity" on them. If you ever get to Ukraine I would not recommend you to say there something like this aloud. In reality, everything depends on them now. If they fight then they will get help, and have a good chance of stopping Russia. If they decide not to fight then nobody will fight for them It will be their choice. Yes, there is a lot of confusions in people's minds there, just like in Vio's mind here. But desire for independence and resistance to the Russian empire was ever present in Ukrainian people, and despite all the repressions was never fully extinguished.


Geopolitically, Ukraine has no government. It is a failed state hanging on by a thread, due to Putin's mischief in the East.

They do not even control their own territory... the state is necrotizing and dying. You have to understand that they have no money. A country like Ukraine can only continue If it is supported by Russia, China or ideally, US/EU. Since that hasn't happened, Ukraine cannot continue and is disintegrating!

That is why Ukraine are not even being included in the discussions over Ukraine's future. The key people who will determine Ukraine's future are Putin and the US president. I would not belittle Ukrainians by pretending they don't understand this. They know!
 
johns624
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:17 pm

Maybe the US media just isn't reporting it, but have France or Germany spoken up warning Russia not to invade Ukraine? All I have read about Germany is that they vetoed Estonia giving Ukraine some old GDR artillery. I'm just asking because Macron and the recently departed Merkel have made many comments about the EU being its own powerbase outside of NATO. Now would be a good time to show that they just don't want the title, but want the job, too.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:14 pm

Yes, German politicians have made it clear there will be high Costs if Putin invades Ukraine. Even North Stream 2 is no longer ruled out.

Germany is a reliable Nato Partner.

The highest Ranking german Admiral was fired, btw, just 2 hours ago after he made stupid remarks regarding Putin.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:18 pm

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland ... ieren.html

In case Putin invades Ukraine Scholz is willing to discuss everything.

So yes, there is a clear commitment. But obviously we prefer to discuss solutions.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1639
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:26 pm

Putin messing with Romania or Bulgaria would be like putting a gun in his mouth. That won’t happen. It is a Trump style fake talking point so we will let him finish the job in Ukraine. He has already taken half of it anyway.

Ukraine isn’t in NATO. Putin knows Biden is a weak president, thoroughly dominated on the domestic as well as international fronts by others. Now is the time to take a Ukraine back.

And it goes without saying that China will view it as even easier to take Taiwan back, which is hardly a real country in the first place. I do not think many will die; I see these as bloodless takeovers. And Biden will let it happen.

Now is the right time to get these things done. The US is financially tapped out and not in the mood for war. Europe is largely on vacation this time of year and can be relied upon to do nothing. The coast is clear.
 
Newark727
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Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:43 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
And it goes without saying that China will view it as even easier to take Taiwan back, which is hardly a real country in the first place. I do not think many will die; I see these as bloodless takeovers. And Biden will let it happen.


On the contrary, Taiwan is a much tougher nut to crack than Ukraine - an opposed amphibious landing is no picnic, and the ROC's military never had to suffer a post-USSR malaise of corruption and indifference. China has taken all this time to build up because they don't want to risk it until they see it as a sure thing.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1639
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:58 pm

Newark727 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
And it goes without saying that China will view it as even easier to take Taiwan back, which is hardly a real country in the first place. I do not think many will die; I see these as bloodless takeovers. And Biden will let it happen.


On the contrary, Taiwan is a much tougher nut to crack than Ukraine - an opposed amphibious landing is no picnic, and the ROC's military never had to suffer a post-USSR malaise of corruption and indifference. China has taken all this time to build up because they don't want to risk it until they see it as a sure thing.


This is a good point. I was coming more from the angle that Ukraine is regarded as a real country, while Taiwan is not (which is significant). But you are very right that Taiwan has a well trained, well funded defensive force with some good strategic advantages. I don’t know how it would go at all (although I have been to both places). China is stronger than Putin, also. Putin might eventually run out of money. China never will.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:03 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
This is a good point. I was coming more from the angle that Ukraine is universally regarded as a real country, while Taiwan is not (which is hugely significant). But you are very right that Taiwan has a well trained, well funded defensive force with some good strategic advantages. I don’t know how it would go at all (although I have been to both places). China is stronger than Putin, also. Some would say much stronger.


I'm not saying China couldn't win if they actually pulled the trigger, but the hybrid-war strategy that got Putin a slice of Ukraine so quickly isn't viable. China has to plan over a longer term.
 
johns624
Posts: 5177
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:02 am

LCDFlight wrote:
I was coming more from the angle that Ukraine is regarded as a real country, while Taiwan is not (which is significant). But you are very right that Taiwan has a well trained, well funded defensive force with some good strategic advantages. I don’t know how it would go at all (although I have been to both places). China is stronger than Putin, also. Putin might eventually run out of money. China never will.
Taiwan has been a viable country for longer than Ukraine. Until PRC started twisting arms, most countries considered Republic of China as the real China.
 
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alberchico
Posts: 3624
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:52 am

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:23 am

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60099924

So this guy says what many are thinking in that what Russia is doing is just a bluff to extract concessions and improve their standing on the world stage and he gets canned over it.

"He added that the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, "is gone and will never come back".

He's 100% right on this. Crimea is gone forever for the Ukraine. But no Western leader wants to admit that. Perhaps Ukraine should formally cede Crimea to Russia in exchange for a firm commitment to bring the conflict in the eastern part of the country to a quick end.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:51 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60099924

So this guy says what many are thinking in that what Russia is doing is just a bluff to extract concessions and improve their standing on the world stage and he gets canned over it.

"He added that the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, "is gone and will never come back".

He's 100% right on this. Crimea is gone forever for the Ukraine. But no Western leader wants to admit that. Perhaps Ukraine should formally cede Crimea to Russia in exchange for a firm commitment to bring the conflict in the eastern part of the country to a quick end.


Problem is, Russia already showed that their promises to Ukraine can't be trusted, since they violated the Budapest memorandum when they went to annex Crimea and start the war in the first place. Can we take them at their word now?
 
johns624
Posts: 5177
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:22 am

I think that Russia named Bulgaria and Romania as the countries that they don't want in NATO due to their relative anonymity. If they had started with Poland and Hungary or Czechia/Slovakia, there would've been a loud "hell no" from everyone. Small bites first...
 
Newark727
Posts: 2898
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:55 am

johns624 wrote:
I think that Russia named Bulgaria and Romania as the countries that they don't want in NATO due to their relative anonymity. If they had started with Poland and Hungary or Czechia/Slovakia, there would've been a loud "hell no" from everyone. Small bites first...


Nah, in the true tradition of the Russian tsars, Putin is making a go at Constantinople. :D
 
Dogman
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:17 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Geopolitically, Ukraine has no government. It is a failed state hanging on by a thread, due to Putin's mischief in the East.

They do not even control their own territory... the state is necrotizing and dying. You have to understand that they have no money. A country like Ukraine can only continue If it is supported by Russia, China or ideally, US/EU. Since that hasn't happened, Ukraine cannot continue and is disintegrating!

That is why Ukraine are not even being included in the discussions over Ukraine's future. The key people who will determine Ukraine's future are Putin and the US president. I would not belittle Ukrainians by pretending they don't understand this. They know!


I've been born there, I have friends and family there, I am constantly following the events in Ukraine. Other than they do not control a small portion of their own territory, everything else you've said is simply not true.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1639
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Russia now wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria

Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:43 am

Dogman wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Geopolitically, Ukraine has no government. It is a failed state hanging on by a thread, due to Putin's mischief in the East.

They do not even control their own territory... the state is necrotizing and dying. You have to understand that they have no money. A country like Ukraine can only continue If it is supported by Russia, China or ideally, US/EU. Since that hasn't happened, Ukraine cannot continue and is disintegrating!

That is why Ukraine are not even being included in the discussions over Ukraine's future. The key people who will determine Ukraine's future are Putin and the US president. I would not belittle Ukrainians by pretending they don't understand this. They know!


I've been born there, I have friends and family there, I am constantly following the events in Ukraine. Other than they do not control a small portion of their own territory, everything else you've said is simply not true.


Crimea. Donbass. Donetsk? Kiev, barely saved in 2014. Not a failing state? How much worse can it get, buddy? I have great respect for the Ukraine people, but they have no fundamental security. They are well educated people who are mostly well behaved and have long history. But Russia has undermined their state so deeply that it barely runs. Only the US or China can really protect Ukraine from Putin. He is getting old and he knows he has to get this done. The US wishes Ukraine well, but we are not committed to its defense. Nobody is. Putin noticed that. And that’s why This is all happening.

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