The US State Department has urged it's citizens in Ukraine to leave the country as Western nations warn of sanctions against Russia if they invade Ukraine. This comes as Russia is increasing military exercises in neighboring Belarus, which is a key ally of Russia. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp

Based on all that's happened so far, do people here think some kind of shooting war will really occur ? I honestly just don't see it. I think by this time in February we'll be having a chuckle at how hysterical everybody became over this. I'll say it again, Russia has completely lost the element of surprise and Putin knows any combat operations in the Ukraine will be no walk in the park. The man is not stupid enough to spectacularly shoot himself in the foot like this. This is a massive bluff to squeeze some major concession from the Ukraine. Hell, even Ukraine is telling their citizens that no invasion is imminent and that they should stay calm. Also, on the streets of Kiev there is no panic or chaos of any kind, no rush to the markets to stock up on supplies, no run on the banks. If they aren't panicking, then why is everyone else ?

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/ukraine ... arus-54064

Not really that interested in what the US foreign office is suggesting their citizens do, to be honest.

Now if a whole range of countries started doing the same, and that range was to include the EU, then it would be worthy of interest to someone this side of the pond.

As for a war in Ukraine, it’s honestly anybody’s guess what’s going to happen. 50/50 coin toss if there ever was one, and I’m not going to weigh in on either side. Putin’s in a bit of pickle at home, to put it mildly, but he is also a very accomplished dictator elect and the man is neither a fool nor an idiot.

He can take Ukraine any time he wants, but such an effort might well result in unacceptably high casualty rates. Which won’t do down well at home, and it’s the home front Putin needs to win. War is also stupidly expensive, and Russia has already been spending a lot of coin at the extended exercises at the Ukranian border, in the Baltic Sea and an upcoming large naval exercise in the North Atlantic.

But he really, really, REALLY would like to have control of that gas pipeline running through Ukraine. And the farmland. And the industry. And uninterrupted access to the Black Sea. But mainly the pipeline.

alberchico wrote:

Based on all that's happened so far, do people here think some kind of shooting war will really occur ? I honestly just don't see it. I think by this time in February we'll be having a chuckle at how hysterical everybody became over this. I'll say it again, Russia has completely lost the element of surprise and Putin knows any combat operations in the Ukraine will be no walk in the park. The man is not stupid enough to spectacularly shoot himself in the foot like this. This is a massive bluff to squeeze some major concession from the Ukraine. Hell, even Ukraine is telling their citizens that no invasion is imminent and that they should stay calm. Also, on the streets of Kiev there is no panic or chaos of any kind, no rush to the markets to stock up on supplies, no run on the banks. If they aren't panicking, then why is everyone else ?

In cases like this you have to plan based not just on Putin's likely intentions, but also his capabilities. It's easier to be wrong about the former than the latter.

Considering Russia fought and took the Crimea, a shooting war seems very likely. Modern warfare is fast. Citizens should get out.

lightsaber wrote:

Considering Russia fought and took the Crimea, a shooting war seems very likely. Modern warfare is fast. Citizens should get out.

What fighting occurred when Russia annexed Crimea, it's was almost bloodless, they walked in, took over with hardly a shot being fired. The Ukrainian military didn't attempt to put up any resistance, 9200 servicemen and 7000 civilian employees defected.

I flew from Kyiv to London yesterday (Tuesday) lunchtime with Ryanair. Tickets were being sold for 360 euros one way 24h in advance (VERY unusual for a Tuesday in winter).. and then sold out by Monday evening. On the flight, it looked like every seat was taken

While bullets flying may not be likely in the next 24 hours... one should consider how reliant international passenger flights are on utility infrastructure (eg power supply, voice telephony, ATC, computer networks, etc...), the failure of just one likely leading to a cancelled flight but all of which can be brought down by well-resourced hackers while being denied by a nation state,

alberchico wrote:

Based on all that's happened so far, do people here think some kind of shooting war will really occur ? I honestly just don't see it. I think by this time in February we'll be having a chuckle at how hysterical everybody became over this. I'll say it again, Russia has completely lost the element of surprise and Putin knows any combat operations in the Ukraine will be no walk in the park.

Russia was never going to have surprise on their side with a force of 100,000+ . It simply isn’t realistic with today’s surveillance capabilities that Ukraine wouldn’t notice a major build up near their border, or that a major power like the US or UK wouldn’t see it and quietly pass along word to Ukraine. The calculus for Russia was never about surprise, but rather what the rest of the world will do, or not, about an invasion and whether the costs are worth what they think they’ll gain.

This is getting a little bizarre.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/27/biden-zel ... NYPTwitter

NIKV69 wrote:

This is getting a little bizarre.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/27/biden-zel ... NYPTwitter

Sounds like someone in the Ukrainian foreign ministry is trying to juice up narratives supporting a robust EU/US defense.

davidjohnson6 wrote:

I flew from Kyiv to London yesterday (Tuesday) lunchtime with Ryanair. Tickets were being sold for 360 euros one way 24h in advance (VERY unusual for a Tuesday in winter).. and then sold out by Monday evening. On the flight, it looked like every seat was taken

While bullets flying may not be likely in the next 24 hours... one should consider how reliant international passenger flights are on utility infrastructure (eg power supply, voice telephony, ATC, computer networks, etc...), the failure of just one likely leading to a cancelled flight but all of which can be brought down by well-resourced hackers while being denied by a nation state,

Australia has also told it's Citizens to leave, and have also evacuated dependants of diplomats. Flights possibly being cut-off at short notice as above was one of the reasons given for the advice.

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destin ... pe/ukraine

Aaron747 wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

This is getting a little bizarre.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/27/biden-zel ... NYPTwitter

Sounds like someone in the Ukrainian foreign ministry is trying to juice up narratives supporting a robust EU/US defense.

Or more so Biden wants Russia to invade since it's been days since this attack has been 'Imminent"

NIKV69 wrote:

Or more so Biden wants Russia to invade since it's been days since this attack has been 'Imminent"

Russian domestic politics are far, far more important to this situation than American domestic politics.

NIKV69 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

This is getting a little bizarre.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/27/biden-zel ... NYPTwitter

Sounds like someone in the Ukrainian foreign ministry is trying to juice up narratives supporting a robust EU/US defense.

Or more so Biden wants Russia to invade since it's been days since this attack has been 'Imminent"

Riiiiight...because that's all kinds of logical.

Why should the US even care about this? I get that Putin doesnt like us very much, but I don't really see how Putin going after the Ukraine is of any concern to us. To me, this looks like just the thing the war mongers in Washington were waiting for, so we can flush more money down the drain on wars that accomplish nothing for us but to enrich the pockets of defense contractors. I am getting sick of it.

Interestingly enough, Pelosi is quickly pushing through a Ukraine funding bill in the house, going as far as to bypass the committee markup and putting it directly on the floor. And I guarantee you it will pass with bipartisan support. And you know the one thing Repubicans won't be asking about this bill. "How are you going to pay for it?" It's like deficits don't matter when we fight unnecessary wars, but try to pass legislation that would help the working class and all of a sudden congress can't do that because of the deficit.

I don't understand sometimes why people have to be told to leave a certain area. Is common sense really that uncommon?

Some people have obligations - eg employment as expats - and are unable to leave easily. An embassy formally telling people to "leave now" can often be referenced as force majeure, giving valid reason to break a contract or other obligation, even if later disputed in a court of law

Additionally, an embassy saying "leave now" also covers the legal backside of a Govt from being sued by its citizens for failing in a duty to protect

B777LRF wrote:

Not really that interested in what the US foreign office is suggesting their citizens do, to be honest.

Now if a whole range of countries started doing the same, and that range was to include the EU, then it would be worthy of interest to someone this side of the pond.

As for a war in Ukraine, it’s honestly anybody’s guess what’s going to happen. 50/50 coin toss if there ever was one, and I’m not going to weigh in on either side. Putin’s in a bit of pickle at home, to put it mildly, but he is also a very accomplished dictator elect and the man is neither a fool nor an idiot.

He can take Ukraine any time he wants, but such an effort might well result in unacceptably high casualty rates. Which won’t do down well at home, and it’s the home front Putin needs to win. War is also stupidly expensive, and Russia has already been spending a lot of coin at the extended exercises at the Ukranian border, in the Baltic Sea and an upcoming large naval exercise in the North Atlantic.

But he really, really, REALLY would like to have control of that gas pipeline running through Ukraine. And the farmland. And the industry. And uninterrupted access to the Black Sea. But mainly the pipeline.

Russia also has a lot of resources tied down in Syria and they also have to guard their long border with China.

UK is now emailing its citizens in Ukraine, asking them to think carefully whether they really need to remain in Ukraine

I think the US is letting Russia know we are preparing for their Aggressive invasion, and communicating it widely amongst allies that everyone sees how Aggressive Russia is being.

I have to wonder if this writer has it right?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/opin ... raine.html

But the West called his bluff. In the past week especially, the United States and NATO have taken a markedly sharper tone when discussing Russia — and have, more important, sent military hardware across Eastern Europe and put troops on standby. The message is clear: If Russia won’t de-escalate, then neither will the West.

Instead of trapping the United States, Mr. Putin has trapped himself. Caught between armed conflict and a humiliating retreat, he is now seeing his room for maneuver dwindling to nothing. He could invade and risk defeat, or he could pull back and have nothing to show for his brinkmanship. What happens next is unknown. But one thing is clear: Mr. Putin’s gamble has failed.

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Newark727 wrote:

Russian domestic politics are far, far more important to this situation than American domestic politics.

Depends on who you ask. Many in the US are using this to try to save Biden's presidency. He has been a huge joke and bumbling fool and the Dems are scared of losing the house and or Senate which would render Biden totally useless for the rest of his time as president. They are throwing a hail mary with this and the SCOTUS pick now praying to at least keep the senate. Russia was the way to keep your eye off the ball after Trump won and it's being used again as they are know realizing Putin is not going to invade and they are planning how to spin it.

apodino wrote:

Why should the US even care about this? I get that Putin doesnt like us very much, but I don't really see how Putin going after the Ukraine is of any concern to us. To me, this looks like just the thing the war mongers in Washington were waiting for, so we can flush more money down the drain on wars that accomplish nothing for us but to enrich the pockets of defense contractors. I am getting sick of it.

Of course. We are only the world's policeman when certain presidents are in office and a certain party controls congress. I wonder how the Dems would react if Iran invaded Israel.

Aaron747 wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

Sounds like someone in the Ukrainian foreign ministry is trying to juice up narratives supporting a robust EU/US defense.

Or more so Biden wants Russia to invade since it's been days since this attack has been 'Imminent"

Riiiiight...because that's all kinds of logical.

None of this is logical, which is why Biden is scrambling now and why the Ukrainian president said what he did to him.

Think you've watched Wag the Dog too many times - there's no political upside for Biden here. The world doesn't revolve around your partisan boosterism.

davidjohnson6 wrote:

Some people have obligations - eg employment as expats - and are unable to leave easily. An embassy formally telling people to "leave now" can often be referenced as force majeure, giving valid reason to break a contract or other obligation, even if later disputed in a court of law

Additionally, an embassy saying "leave now" also covers the legal backside of a Govt from being sued by its citizens for failing in a duty to protect

Travel insurers also use the Government Advice to their advantage. Australian travel insurers will generally refuse coverage to those who remain in a 'do not travel' country against DFAT advice. Different matter of course if you have made attempts to leave as per official advice.

alberchico wrote:

Based on all that's happened so far, do people here think some kind of shooting war will really occur ? I honestly just don't see it. I think by this time in February we'll be having a chuckle at how hysterical everybody became over this. I'll say it again, Russia has completely lost the element of surprise and Putin knows any combat operations in the Ukraine will be no walk in the park. The man is not stupid enough to spectacularly shoot himself in the foot like this. This is a massive bluff to squeeze some major concession from the Ukraine. Hell, even Ukraine is telling their citizens that no invasion is imminent and that they should stay calm. Also, on the streets of Kiev there is no panic or chaos of any kind, no rush to the markets to stock up on supplies, no run on the banks. If they aren't panicking, then why is everyone else ?

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/ukraine ... arus-54064

Moving blood supplies to the newly constructed field hospitals along the border with Ukraine sure sounds like a massive bluff to me.

Canada pulling dependents of embassy staff and non-essential employees out of Ukraine
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/ ... -1.5760543