casinterest wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

Berlin is axing certification of Nordstream2 (finally...).

axing it easlier would have cost Russia nothing.

So, are the US going to stop importing Oil from Russia now?

best regards
Thomas

Let's see what the sanctions are, but the US doesn't import a hill of beans in terms of volume from Russia.

Maybe 15-20,000 barrels last year. Strangely the amount went up a lot in the last 5 years.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... -NRS_1&f=M

You don’t understand the table you linked do you?

Russia is the second largest supplier of oil to the US, last year is was 12m to 26m barrels per month.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/w ... -products/

Kiwirob wrote:

casinterest wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

axing it easlier would have cost Russia nothing.

So, are the US going to stop importing Oil from Russia now?

best regards
Thomas

Let's see what the sanctions are, but the US doesn't import a hill of beans in terms of volume from Russia.

Maybe 15-20,000 barrels last year. Strangely the amount went up a lot in the last 5 years.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... -NRS_1&f=M

You don’t understand the table you linked do you?

Russia is the second largest supplier of oil to the US, last year is was 12m to 26m barrels per month.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/w ... -products/

My bad on the chart. I didn't read it correctly at all. But the below shows it still isn't much in the grand scheme.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... xports.php

7% of imports , is still around 2-3% of consumption.

Hopefully it will get cut. But it will cause temporary gas spikes which could be politically challenging.

johns624 wrote:

sierrakilo44 wrote:

no Carrier Battle Group to the Black Sea.

Putting a CBG in the constrained waters of the Black Sea wouldn't be a good idea.

Even if they wanted to it wouldn’t be allowed, it’s banned by the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. I doubt Turkey would grant an exemption.

Cut off the debt access to the US and European markets. There will be sanctions on the Russian Elite.

The US will continue to work with NATO and will still supply Defense equipment to Ukraine along with defensive moves in the Baltic states. The US and NATO will defend NATO territory.

There will be further sanctions as Russia escalates it's attack on Ukraine. Which it looks likely to occur. Make no mistake Russia is manufacturing the crisis it is using to attack.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/uk ... index.html

It appears oil embargo's are off the table for now, as there was a quote by Biden that we will not harm our Energy supply for now.

Ukraine: EU deploys cyber rapid-response team

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60484979

Well we all knew that was gonna happen,much cheaper than boots on the ground.

More drones in the sky. And another US Globemaster going to Romania.

Wellknown face possibly transporting equipment to Belarus?

 224th Flight Unit State Airline....

Gesendet von meinem SM-G781B mit Tapatalk

Gee....

Biden says the U.S. will try to limit the effect of Russia sanctions on gas prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/22/putin-o ... -says.html

I kinda called that...

Tugger wrote:

All the sanctions we devise won't stop Russia and will be designed to minimize the impacts to "our world" so will have soft edges and corners. Don't want hurt Europe, after all they do business with and depend on Russia. At least that is how Putin views it.

Can't have the hometown citizens experience higher gas prices (which they will anyway),

And as to a further incursion, I think Putin is just setting all his pieces to be ready for what he plans next (due to an incitement he will blames on Kiev or anyone else but Russia's actions).

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

Can't have the hometown citizens experience higher gas prices (which they will anyway),

Tugg

Right when you have the upper hand, you let him up for air.

US imports of Russian oil mainly consist of low value oil products that Russian refineries cannot upgrade to higher value fuels (Gasoline, Diesel). US refineries were built to do this. Oil traders buy these low value products and ship them to the States for this process.
" The bulk of this oil is classified by the EIA as unfinished oils. Sources told Platts that these products consist of different types of fuel and their various feedstocks. These include high sulfur fuel oil, high sulfur vacuum gasoil, low sulfur vacuum gasoil, high sulfur straight run fuel oil and low sulfur straight run fuel oil." https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... uring-ties

All the Russian oil could be replaced with existing American crude oil, Canadian SYN crude (if it were available via a certain cancelled pipeline) or Venezuelan Heavy oil (not going to happen now). The US refineries spent billions upgrading to handle low quality feedstocks. To pay for that investment they need to run cheaper feedstocks . The light, sweet US crudes cost more.

Just do it, Biden! I live in California, I already pay out the wazoo for gas, I'm not under any illusions about this.

johns624 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Can't have the hometown citizens experience higher gas prices (which they will anyway),

Tugg

Right when you have the upper hand, you let him up for air.

Newark727 wrote:

Just do it, Biden! I live in California, I already pay out the wazoo for gas, I'm not under any illusions about this.

Yeah, I feel similar. Open the strategic reserve, grant an EO exemption to US fracking to open the taps. Drive the cost down as what Russia has done drives it up (which is also something Putin wants).

And know this has to run for a year or so at least (and act like you will run it longer). As much as I can't stand him, one thing Trump was good at was not caring about hurting others to get what he wanted. Something like that is needed here.

Tugg

MohawkWeekend wrote:

US imports of Russian oil mainly consist of low value oil products that Russian refineries cannot upgrade to higher value fuels (Gasoline, Diesel). US refineries were built to do this. Oil traders buy these low value products and ship them to the States for this process.
" The bulk of this oil is classified by the EIA as unfinished oils. Sources told Platts that these products consist of different types of fuel and their various feedstocks. These include high sulfur fuel oil, high sulfur vacuum gasoil, low sulfur vacuum gasoil, high sulfur straight run fuel oil and low sulfur straight run fuel oil." https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... uring-ties

All the Russian oil could be replaced with existing American crude oil, Canadian SYN crude (if it were available via a certain cancelled pipeline) or Venezuelan Heavy oil (not going to happen now). The US refineries spent billions upgrading to handle low quality feedstocks. To pay for that investment they need to run cheaper feedstocks . The light, sweet US crudes cost more.

Problem is - will utopian zero-fossil fuel policies and Wall Street investor greed allow replacement US or Canadian crude to be pumped? I also don't see renewables coming to help any time soon.

Drilling projects recently got tangled up in the courts again, and it seems like the big shale producers are perfectly content where things are heading:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-wi ... 29906.html

The US isn't doing itself any favors if it still wants "cheap" fuels and "energy independence" from adversarial petroweapons.

Tugger wrote:

Yeah, I feel similar. Open the strategic reserve, grant an EO exemption to US fracking to open the taps. Drive the cost down as what Russia has done drives it up (which is also something Putin wants).

As good an idea as that is, it won't happen. Not least of all, a domestic energy policy driven by transient politics and Executive Orders is not exactly a sustainable business model. Crisis is over, shut 'em down boys! It was a huge unforced error to do it in the first place, but Ready, Shoot, Aim pandering won that day, and lost this one.

SEAorPWM wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

US imports of Russian oil mainly consist of low value oil products that Russian refineries cannot upgrade to higher value fuels (Gasoline, Diesel). US refineries were built to do this. Oil traders buy these low value products and ship them to the States for this process.
" The bulk of this oil is classified by the EIA as unfinished oils. Sources told Platts that these products consist of different types of fuel and their various feedstocks. These include high sulfur fuel oil, high sulfur vacuum gasoil, low sulfur vacuum gasoil, high sulfur straight run fuel oil and low sulfur straight run fuel oil." https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... uring-ties

All the Russian oil could be replaced with existing American crude oil, Canadian SYN crude (if it were available via a certain cancelled pipeline) or Venezuelan Heavy oil (not going to happen now). The US refineries spent billions upgrading to handle low quality feedstocks. To pay for that investment they need to run cheaper feedstocks . The light, sweet US crudes cost more.

Problem is - will utopian zero-fossil fuel policies and Wall Street investor greed allow replacement US or Canadian crude to be pumped? I also don't see renewables coming to help any time soon.

Drilling projects recently got tangled up in the courts again, and it seems like the big shale producers are perfectly content where things are heading:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-wi ... 29906.html

The US isn't doing itself any favors if it still wants "cheap" fuels and "energy independence" from adversarial petroweapons.

Isn't US a net oil exporter nowadays anyway?

So it seems like the US has cut off Russia from getting financing from US and Europe. Can the US cut off Russia from getting financial help from China ?

Mortyman wrote:

So it seems like the US has cut off Russia from getting financing from US and Europe. Can the US cut off Russia from getting financial help from China ?

From what I read, that "cutoff" was only for investments in the occupied regions (Donbass and Luhansk).

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

Mortyman wrote:

So it seems like the US has cut off Russia from getting financing from US and Europe. Can the US cut off Russia from getting financial help from China ?

From what I read, that "cutoff" was only for investments in the occupied regions (Donbass and Luhansk).

Tugg

I think the provincial sanctions were yesterday, and universal in nature, and today's financing sanctions against the two big(gest?) banks are specific and different.

Tugger wrote:

Mortyman wrote:

So it seems like the US has cut off Russia from getting financing from US and Europe. Can the US cut off Russia from getting financial help from China ?

From what I read, that "cutoff" was only for investments in the occupied regions (Donbass and Luhansk).

Tugg

New sanctions announced by Biden today target Russian banks as well.

Mortyman wrote:

So it seems like the US has cut off Russia from getting financing from US and Europe. Can the US cut off Russia from getting financial help from China ?

The PRC has their own financial messaging network, CIPS, which they promote as an alternative to SWIFT (even though they use the same syntax and are quite integrated). About 100 countries use it, including Russia. This would be a perfect opportunity for the PRC to promote its usage even more.

Russia also has their own alternative called SPFS, but it's mostly for internal use and only a handful of other countries use it. Switzerland and Germany are among them, but China is not and they wouldn't want to because they want to promote their own system, which is much better than SPFS.

Russia and China have discussed developing a joint one to increase scale and rival SWIFT, but they've never agreed on some of the details, like quote currency, etc. And, again, China really wants to promote theirs.

And then there are cryptocurrencies, but China has banned them and Russia has proposed doing the same.

So, yes, there are ways China can finance Russia, if they choose. I seriously doubt that China will be involved in financial sanctions in any way.

SEAorPWM wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

US imports of Russian oil mainly consist of low value oil products that Russian refineries cannot upgrade to higher value fuels (Gasoline, Diesel). US refineries were built to do this. Oil traders buy these low value products and ship them to the States for this process.
" The bulk of this oil is classified by the EIA as unfinished oils. Sources told Platts that these products consist of different types of fuel and their various feedstocks. These include high sulfur fuel oil, high sulfur vacuum gasoil, low sulfur vacuum gasoil, high sulfur straight run fuel oil and low sulfur straight run fuel oil." https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... uring-ties

All the Russian oil could be replaced with existing American crude oil, Canadian SYN crude (if it were available via a certain cancelled pipeline) or Venezuelan Heavy oil (not going to happen now). The US refineries spent billions upgrading to handle low quality feedstocks. To pay for that investment they need to run cheaper feedstocks . The light, sweet US crudes cost more.

Problem is - will utopian zero-fossil fuel policies and Wall Street investor greed allow replacement US or Canadian crude to be pumped? I also don't see renewables coming to help any time soon.

Drilling projects recently got tangled up in the courts again, and it seems like the big shale producers are perfectly content where things are heading:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-wi ... 29906.html

The US isn't doing itself any favors if it still wants "cheap" fuels and "energy independence" from adversarial petroweapons.

I think it was between 2011-20, but not anymore:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51338

There seems to be zero political will over here to return to the energy independent/net exporter status (through a mixture of the expansive adoption of renewables and fossil fuel production/infrastructure), and those (Wall Street shareholders) who really pull the strings in the domestic energy decisions seem to prefer the current situation - the threat of human carnage in Eastern Europe and global economic collapse are secondary thoughts to these people.

It's disturbingly ironic how the "free" market is helping a former KGB agent fulfill his sick little fantasies.

America sells the its light sweet crude to refineries in countries that are geared to run this type of oil. So the oil trader brings in cheaper feedstock (Russian "bottoms" and Canadian SYN crude) and sells the expensive "sweet" oil overseas. So the US imports oil to replace the oil it exports.

Interesting factoid - US and European Oil companies have played a key role (and are still doing so) in developing Russian Far East oil fields.
Major oil companies, including Exxon and Shell, have substantial stakes in energy projects near Sakhalin Island in Russia’s far east.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-eu-san ... 1643452201

It's worse for BP - they own 20% of Rosneft ) Putin's favorite oil company
BP can thank Moscow for plenty of its jackpot profits
Analysis: oil firm retains 20% share of Kremlin-backed Rosneft, which contributed a similar slice of BP’s $12.8bn windfall annual profithttps://www.theguardian.com/busin ... ot-profits

There are probably hundreds of US/Brit/Dutch engineers and drilling supervisors in Russia wondering if this secondment was such a keen idea.

GDB wrote:

Dunk on the Germans and any others if it makes some over there feel better about having until last year, an explicit admirer of Putin in the White House (which as you found out last January has about as much respect for democracy as his mate and financial buddy Vlad). Who still holds considerable sway over his party, is somehow not charged with his all too obvious sedition.

It's not about "feeling better". Looking from the central European perspective, it is very, very grim picture.
It's about the reeking hypocrisy. Just 24 hours earlier, Macron was preparing some sort of Munich 2.0 conference on Ukraine, without Ukraine. All he cared about is the limelight to look important for his camping. Germans now expect to be patted on their backs for being 8 years too late with halting the Ribbentropp-Molotov Pipeline.
Trump's 4 years was a disaster, but so is German Ostpolitik (read: appeasement of Russia) since the 1970s for which there is a wide consensus across the entire political spectrum.

In the US, the twice impeached former president that weakened NATO and Ukraine lavished praise on Putin's plan and basically said it could be a roadmap for an invasion of Mexico.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/10824787 ... ine-border

"So, Putin is now saying, 'It's independent,' a large section of Ukraine. I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That's [the] strongest peace force," Trump said, adding that that was the kind of show of force the United States could use on its southern border.

The Russian invasion has begun, and at this point, I think the sanctions need to be as harsh as they can as quick as they can. The end results are already clear if sanctions are not harsh. I don't think Putin stops with Ukraine.

I hate to admit it, but Putin is kind of a genius here for the way he went about this. He knows that Ukraine will not attempt to move his forces out because it would provoke a wider war that would end in disaster for Kiev, and he also knows that Biden will not go through with his doomsday sanctions because it would cause global shock waves and it would cost him politically. Let's be honest, the majority of Americans do not care about this crisis. What they do care about is runaway inflation and any economic shocks that would cause more pain in their wallets. I'm sure that many Western Europeans who are far away from the front lines have the same attitude.

There is really no way for Kiev to negotiate it's way out of this crisis without giving up some kind of massive concession. Once those Russian troops have settled into those territories they aren't going anywhere. Maybe something drastic like recognizing that Crimea belongs to Russia should be on the table at this point.

Alberchico - there has been much comment that over the last 20 years, Putin has played a weak hand of cards extremely well. Many of the US military's most senior officers have given him (grudging) admiration for this.

https://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/11/opin ... index.html

alberchico wrote:

I hate to admit it, but Putin is kind of a genius here for the way he went about this. He knows that Ukraine will not attempt to move his forces out because it would provoke a wider war that would end in disaster for Kiev, and he also knows that Biden will not go through with his doomsday sanctions because it would cause global shock waves and it would cost him politically. Let's be honest, the majority of Americans do not care about this crisis. What they do care about is runaway inflation and any economic shocks that would cause more pain in their wallets. I'm sure that many Western Europeans who are far away from the front lines have the same attitude.

There is really no way for Kiev to negotiate it's way out of this crisis without giving up some kind of massive concession. Once those Russian troops have settled into those territories they aren't going anywhere. Maybe something drastic like recognizing that Crimea belongs to Russia should be on the table at this point.

In exchange for what? At this point, Ukraine's sovereignty is threatened. Do they acquiesce or decide that they must join with other countries for defense? The real issue present now is for all out war. Russia has abandoned diplomacy for all out aggression, and whether everyone think's Putin is so clever or not, the end result is deaths destabilization, and war.

Ukraine, if it wants to exist, and if Europe and the US want it to exist, must be admitted to NATO. I think whether Putin wants it or not, that is the next logical step. Putin seems to want war at any cost. Might as well make him the Aggressor against NATO, and put China in a real bind as well.

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

Pi7472000 wrote:

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

Well Poland is a member of NATO so then the US and NATO have no choice. It will have to actually send soldiers and put it's whole machinery in motion. It will be a very different game.

alberchico wrote:

I hate to admit it, but Putin is kind of a genius here for the way he went about this. He knows that Ukraine will not attempt to move his forces out because it would provoke a wider war that would end in disaster for Kiev, and he also knows that Biden will not go through with his doomsday sanctions because it would cause global shock waves and it would cost him politically. Let's be honest, the majority of Americans do not care about this crisis. What they do care about is runaway inflation and any economic shocks that would cause more pain in their wallets. I'm sure that many Western Europeans who are far away from the front lines have the same attitude.

There is really no way for Kiev to negotiate it's way out of this crisis without giving up some kind of massive concession. Once those Russian troops have settled into those territories they aren't going anywhere. Maybe something drastic like recognizing that Crimea belongs to Russia should be on the table at this point.

Bingo! This is probably as close to the truth as it gets.

Pi7472000 wrote:

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

This really is a ridiculous statement, boarding on paranoia.

The main power station of the independent Luhansk Republic - was bombed not long ago with Grad rockets of the Ukrainian army.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/6861
87.5K views
edited
Feb 22 at 08:58

We will see if that's true. US and Nato have the capability to tell exactly where those rockets came from in almost real time. And even if rockets were used to cause the explosions.

DIRECTFLT wrote:

The main power station of the independent Luhansk Republic - was bombed not long ago with Grad rockets of the Ukrainian army.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/6861
87.5K views
edited
Feb 22 at 08:58

Amir Tsarfati .... so yeah, if there where rockets at all, they came from a Russian launcher.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

The main power station of the independent Luhansk Republic - was bombed not long ago with Grad rockets of the Ukrainian army.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/6861
87.5K views
edited
Feb 22 at 08:58

Amir Tsarfati .... so yeah, if there where rockets at all, they came from a Russian launcher.

best regards
Thomas

Sure the Russians built them, the Ukrainians also have them. I trust you'll start investigating and get down to the nitty gritty on whose it actually was?

Kiwirob wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

The main power station of the independent Luhansk Republic - was bombed not long ago with Grad rockets of the Ukrainian army.

https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/6861
87.5K views
edited
Feb 22 at 08:58

Amir Tsarfati .... so yeah, if there where rockets at all, they came from a Russian launcher.

best regards
Thomas

Sure the Russians built them, the Ukrainians also have them. I trust you'll start investigating and get down to the nitty gritty on whose it actually was?

so far every single time the Ukrainisans supposedly used anything beyond rifle fire or a mortar it turned of it came off Russian launcher. Hence that is the safe assumption until proven otherwise.

best regards
Thomas

johns624 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Here's a new question---Some Europeans here are saying the US wants Europe to be militarily weak so that they can be top dog and others are saying the US wants Europe to build up their military so the US can sell them more weapons. Which one is it?

The key word you missed is: independent. The US wants a strong Europe on a leash, not an independent and military strong Europe.
Please read the articles I linked in previous posts.

We allowed you to act independently in the Balkans, how'd that end up? We let you lead the way in the Libyan intervention. You could've led the way during the current crisis, but all we heard was crickets chirping. A European poster upthread said that Europe couldn't take the lead against Russia because Russia has a lot more nukes.

I don't deny the fact Europe could have done more to maintain their military at a reasonable level. You just ignore the facts and your examples are showing why Europe needs to become more independent. it is the USA who wants Ukraine in NATO, knowing Russia wouldn't allow it.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-live-updates-russia-invasion-boris-johnson-uk-sanctions-12541713

The guy just can't help himself:

"Describing Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "genius" and a "tough cookie", he said: "Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine as independent. That's wonderful. How smart is that? This is genius."

The section quoted was posted almost exactly 30 minutes ago - the 3rd section from the top at the time of this post.

Virtual737 wrote:

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-live-updates-russia-invasion-boris-johnson-uk-sanctions-12541713

The guy just can't help himself:

"Describing Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "genius" and a "tough cookie", he said: "Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine as independent. That's wonderful. How smart is that? This is genius."

The section quoted was posted almost exactly 30 minutes ago - the 3rd section from the top at the time of this post.

well, given that has his accounting firm dumped him Russian money is probably the only chance he has going foward, so what is he supposed to say. I wonder if he isn´t long past the point where he needs to register as a foreign agent.

best regards
Thomas

Wonder how that will play with East European and Latino voters in the mid terms or 2024?.

bennett123 wrote:

Wonder how that will play with East European and Latino voters in the mid terms or 2024?.

How what will play? And how will Latino voters be disproportionately affected by issues in Ukraine/Russia? What am I missing?

Jeremy

Just so anyone doesn't get the impression the shambles that is the UK government is really going after Putin's oligarchs, a MP reads a long list, many will be Tory donors or just allowed to part their ill gotten billions here. Johnson even sent an ex KGB man to the Lords.
Maybe despite Nord Stream, some on here need to give Germany a break, or Europe in general given how much worse Putin's influence was under Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijinWrEOKAI

Mad Nadine Dorries, Culture Secretary (tough to write that), will be again spitting blood at the BBC for, well doing journalism, here our Foreign Secretary (don't laugh) Liz Truss, beloved for her vacuity by the party members, is confronted with a picture;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14QV_VkqTEw

No fan of the SNP but he's right and note the non answer;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwF_2lCW3cw

Trump also tied the escalating tensions in Ukraine to long-standing conservative grievances about immigration, saying that the US should employ military force akin to that used by Russia to ensure the US-Mexico border was secure.

"We could use that on our southern border. That's the strongest peace force I've ever seen. There were more army tanks than I've ever seen," Trump said. "They're going to keep peace all right. No, but think of it. Here's a guy who's very savvy. … I know him very well — very, very well."

Source;

https://www.businessinsider.com/donald- ... ?r=US&IR=T

Kiwirob wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

This really is a ridiculous statement, boarding on paranoia.

Actually not at all and Findland would be very easy for Russia to take back. Putin has a lot of power over Europe with energy and economics. It is what it is. Not worried at all. Sounds like you have your head in the sand.

Pi7472000 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

This really is a ridiculous statement, boarding on paranoia.

Putin has a lot of power over Europe with energy and economics. .

not really, it rather is the other way round.

Study assumption: complete stop of gas imports from Russia:

Calculations by the Kiel Institute show which trade sanctions would hit the Russian economy the hardest. A trade stop with gas would result in a slump in Russian economic output of just under 3 percent, while a trade stop with oil would result in a slump of a good 1 percent. For Germany and the EU, there would hardly be any economic damage.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/me ... e-hardest/

best regards
Thomas

Kiwirob wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Putin will do what he wants. The U.S. can do little as it will hurt us economically. I think Putin and Russia will march toward Poland in the future. Will be interesting to see if he goes for Finland too.

This really is a ridiculous statement, boarding on paranoia.

Didn't you say this same thing about Ukraine about a year or so ago?

If this report is anything to go by, Ukraine doesn't seem to have much to fear:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/ ... ons-a76488

"Russian troops stationed in the town of Dolbino near the Ukrainian border have been living in “nightmare” conditions, sleeping on cramped floors and going without military food rations for days,"

Not particularly good for morale, I would think.

tommy1808 wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

This really is a ridiculous statement, boarding on paranoia.

Putin has a lot of power over Europe with energy and economics. .

not really, it rather is the other way round.

Study assumption: complete stop of gas imports from Russia:

Calculations by the Kiel Institute show which trade sanctions would hit the Russian economy the hardest. A trade stop with gas would result in a slump in Russian economic output of just under 3 percent, while a trade stop with oil would result in a slump of a good 1 percent. For Germany and the EU, there would hardly be any economic damage.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/me ... e-hardest/

best regards
Thomas

I'm sure the Russians could easily flog any excess to the Chinese and Indians. Russia is also economically in a much better place than a lot of European nations. And the Covid-19 bill is coming soon.

77Phoebe wrote:

Russia is also economically in a much better place than a lot of European nations.

How so?

77Phoebe wrote:

Russia is also economically in a much better place than a lot of European nations. And the Covid-19 bill is coming soon.

Russia's GDP has been stagnating since the late 2010s, and is about a third of Germany's GDP (with almost twice the population). It has been suffering from the sanctions imposed on it for years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp

Russia also has a decreasing population since the mid-2010s and is undergoing a massive Covid wave in a largely under-vaccinated population with some experts believing that the actual death toll to be well above the official one, aggravating the population deficit.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-pop ... opulation/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -situation

In fact, some believe that this war is a way for Putin to distract from Russia's internal issues under his leadership.

Edit: Another link that sheds light on how bad the Covid situation really is in Russia:
https://news.yahoo.com/russias-covid-19 ... 27168.html