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SEAorPWM
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:48 am

anstar wrote:
victrola wrote:

This is precisely the same situation in Europe in 1939, People were so traumatized by World War 1 that they refused to stand up to Germany until it was too late, People think the cost of standing up to Russia is expensive now. However, Russia will become bolder and the cost of standing up to them will become much higher in the future. Years from now, people will ask "why didn't the West stand up to Russia in 2022 when the cost of standing up to them was relatively low.


Such a shame we make the same mistakes time and time again.[/quote]

History is simply a cycle :(
 
GDB
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Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:48 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
JFK said it best sixty years ago:

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty."


Except in October 1962 he got a rude wake up call about the real consequences of "pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship" if they "opposed any foe". It's OK to boast about using force to stop your enemies, but if your enemies have enough Nuclear weapons to kill every human being on the planet 3 times over that causes you to be a little less bellicose.

Close calls are going to happen if you come in close proximity. In 1962 a US destroyer was depth charging a Russian submarine off Cuba. Two of the three officers on the submarine wanted to use nuclear weapons to defend themselves, which surely would have led to a US retaliatory nuclear strike, and WW3, the end of humanity. Luckily the Soviet officer Arkhipov refused to confirm the order, and probably is the reason why most of us here now in 2022 are able to argue about things over the internet in relative comfort.


True, another Hollywood level narrative the US has is the whole ‘they blinked when confronted by the US’, we know now, have done for many years that once it was apparent that Khrushchev’s desperate attempt to even up the 17 to 1 advantage the US had in strategic weapons and to pressure the US to withdraw the Jupiter missiles from Turkey (which did quietly happen later), to match his bluster about his own weapons, had been rumbled well before they were operational, the game was up, he gave the order to turn most ships around before JFK’s public announcement to the world about what they had found on Cuba.
The plan had been to get them operational and then reveal them with demands, likely centered around Berlin.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:58 am

AirPacific747 wrote:
Yeah so the Russians may win a conventional war in a short amount of time but what will they do with Ukraine afterwards? They can’t suppress the will of 44 million people in the long term


This is when they ask for terms, get what they want, then leave.
 
cpd
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:08 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Looks like Zelensky is losing faith in NATO providing actual assistance. Moderated language, saying ready to discuss "neutrality" with Moscow. Maybe trying to salvage something to ensure the nation remains intact at the end of this, rather than sacrifice Ukrainians in bloody battles?:

https://www.firstpost.com/world/ukraine ... 07741.html

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... MsI6A2uzcb



They were never going to provide military assistance or defence anyway. Maybe I’ll wake up tomorrow and maybe through some miracle the invading forces will have been bombed to oblivion but I don’t see that happening.

NATO and others did too much talking and not enough walking.

Ukraine is finished.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:12 am

cpd wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Looks like Zelensky is losing faith in NATO providing actual assistance. Moderated language, saying ready to discuss "neutrality" with Moscow. Maybe trying to salvage something to ensure the nation remains intact at the end of this, rather than sacrifice Ukrainians in bloody battles?:

https://www.firstpost.com/world/ukraine ... 07741.html

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... MsI6A2uzcb



They were never going to provide military assistance or defence anyway. Maybe I’ll wake up tomorrow and maybe through some miracle the invading forces will have been bombed to oblivion but I don’t see that happening.

NATO and others did too much talking and not enough walking.

Ukraine is finished.


NATO countries have provided weapons. But, yes I agree - It's very lame response from the EU, US and NATO and as I have said before, Bejing is watching
 
artflyer
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:16 am

alfa164 wrote:
:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: Absolutely! Ukraine's neighbors should realize that, if Ukraine falls, their borders are in real jeopardy. Putin's megalomania knows no boundaries.


Well, Poland did what it could, short only of military engagement:
a) provided Ukraine for free with defensive military equipment, including among others best-in-class man-pads, whose transfer abroad was till now prohibited,
b) yesterday National Bank of Poland opened a 4 bln PLN (approx.1 bln USD) swap with Ukrainian National Bank to prop up Ukrainian currency
c) provided a lot of medical equipment etc. from state reserves (by now we are probably talking about some 100 lorries of humanitarian equipment)
d) supported imposition of maximal sanctions
e) opened border for Ukrainian refugees, waiving any formal requirements like covid vaccination or test or quarantine (otherwise entry restrictions into Poland remain pretty strict); opened hotlines in Ukrainian; opened reception centers where people looking for help may upon crossing the border get hot food, medical help, be directed to lodging (if needed); every Ukrainian phone logging into Polish network is texted with appropriate instructions
f) as a result of investments in recent years, from October this year will be 100% independent from Russia when it comes to gas (and is already independent when it comes to oil)

Apart from it there is a lot of individual help. For example air traffic controllers from Warsaw organised a reception of all willing families of their respective colleagues from neighboring Lviv, Ukraine.
 
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c933103
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:38 am

GDB wrote:
c933103 wrote:
GDB wrote:
These conversations around NATO still to me it seems are influenced in some eyes, as the US imposing it, by peaceful means of course, that was not how it was founded, it wasn't even an American idea, it after all ran counter to long standing policy about being in binding alliances.
Of course while Anglophobe know nothing on international affairs Byres was Sec Of State, it might have gone nowhere, Marshall however took his place and events such as the bankrupted by war UK warning that they could no longer support anti communists in Greece and the Balkans, then the attempt by Stalin to starve Berlin, moved things along, despite Congress.

https://blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/on ... tion-nato/

Some across the Pond might find it ironic that a self declared Democratic Socialist, who at the time of his entry into Churchill's Coalition in 1940, was likely the most powerful Trade Union boss in the world, was the driving force. Not really, he and boss Attlee hated Communists, had seen enough of dictators and the chaos they brought in their own lifetimes.

NATO's strength is also it's weakness, collective security but the members have to agree to take on newcomers, I agree that the time to have done this was in the early/mid 2000's, as I recall both the UK and US were otherwise engaged and I am not at all convinced that a different German Chancellor in 2008, when Putin really showed his true colours after Georgia, who might have been in favour of Ukraine joining, would have found a ready audience in the US.
Luckily for the others that joined post Cold War, there was no serious objection from European NATO members otherwise they would not have been able to join.

Conclusion with where we are now? There is enough blame to go around on both sides of the Atlantic.

I have saw some people from China commenting the war is Ukraine's fault, because they tried to lean toward the West, but did not have sufficient power to justify their movement against its powerful neighbor, and that they deserve to be invaded for their weak military force unable to guarantee the peaceful execution of their diplomatic policy. Then they suggest the same justification can likewise be applied to China's relationship with Taiwan, Mongolia, the Philippines, and Korea.
They also describe Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 as an act of "punishing an unruly naughty children" which they describe as very effective in preventing the country from further rebelling against Russia.


I would be surprised if anyone in China, in public, said anything different. Unless they want a stay in a 're-education' camp.

China Mainland isn't quite Xinjiang yet. Being found of spoken something wrong online that are not directly opposing the Chinese government governance usually would be handled within online services with like ban, with more serious case seeing policies talking to you with possible detainment for anywhere between a night to up to 28 days, unless the message can be interpreted as opposing the party/the national government's governance, or directly speak against some of the party's idea, or if the person is considered a repeated offender. A message's reach is also part of the consideration. Yet quite a number of (not all, but in sufficiently large amount to not be described as minority) people are still speaking the same even on internet service outside China.
Like steam, the online game store currently banned in China, have see an Ukrainian developer organizing a fundraising campaign for Ukrainian Red Cross, and then a number of people with similar position accessing steam with tunnels to review bomb relevant games, accusing the game developers only start opposing war when their country are personally invaded, without opposing their country's past provocation against Russia by leaning toward the West or did not support Afghanistan current government's effort to repel American invaders in the past 20 years. Of course these general online comments have high likelihood of being provoked by Chinese propaganda efforts, yet the number of people that can be tell as not such making similar comments on various platforms outside China are not low, including personally known people
 
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sebolino
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:54 am

THS214 wrote:
How stupid can one be? Macron won the prize. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-02-24/


Stupid for what ? To have continued talking to Putin early February ? I believe all major countries did it until the very last moment ... I don't really understand your comment.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:56 am

Looks like Ukrainian army launched rockets into an airbase on Russian soil. From twitter i guess the airbase is called Millierovo?? Russian aircraft have been damaged.

Link to Twitter
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiad ... 2,79cfc278
 
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c933103
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:03 am

AirPacific747 wrote:
Yeah so the Russians may win a conventional war in a short amount of time but what will they do with Ukraine afterwards? They can’t suppress the will of 44 million people in the long term

They are already suppressing population in Kazakhstan, Belarus, and within Russia. Adding an extra piece of puzzle into under the same system wouldn't be much trouble.
Or they can just copy back the Soviet system
A more likely scenario could be the takeover of Southern and Eastern Ukraine area with more ethnic Russian under direct Russian government/military management, with rest of Ukraine being placed under some sort of proxy system akin to Vichy France, which the Russia won't control themselves, but will threaten to invade again if such authority is to be in any way not following Moscow's instruction, in a manner that will be similar to 1968 Czech.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:31 am

SRQLOT wrote:
Looks like Ukrainian army launched rockets into an airbase on Russian soil. From twitter i guess the airbase is called Millierovo?? Russian aircraft have been damaged.

Link to Twitter
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiad ... 2,79cfc278


Image

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497130214517784582

Either the Russians expected a much, much easier time handling the Ukrainian armed forces or the state of the Russian army is worse than expected.

Bringing towed artillery to a modern battlefield is a desperation move or tendamount to murdering your own soldiers.

best reagards
Thomas
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:03 pm

sebolino wrote:
THS214 wrote:
How stupid can one be? Macron won the prize. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-02-24/


Stupid for what ? To have continued talking to Putin early February ? .

Stupid for having no balls and no backbone, yet forxing himself in serious international politics. He's firmly and uncompromisingly at Putin's feet. He does it for his campaign, not for any other reason.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1939
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:05 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
sebolino wrote:
THS214 wrote:
How stupid can one be? Macron won the prize. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-02-24/


Stupid for what ? To have continued talking to Putin early February ? .

Stupid for having no balls and no backbone, yet forxing himself in serious international politics. He's firmly and uncompromisingly at Putin's feet. He does it for his campaign, not for any other reason.

Your alternative is to let multiple suns rain on Europe…. That will certainly help….
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:13 pm

France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory.

If you think Macron is negotiating for his image and his presidential campaign, it's partly true. But you have to conclude that it's working or he wouldn't be doing it.

Just like Putin is invading Ukraine to make Russian people forget about their crappy lives under him.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:18 pm

Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory..


That depends on how much Putin cares. Obviously he doesn´t care much about economic damage or his citizens and neither France, nor the UK, has enough to kill them all.

Putin is already threatening Nukes, so quite obviously mushroom clouds don´t scare him much.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:22 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
“We stand up to bullies," President Biden said Thursday at the White House. "Americans stand up for freedom. This is who we are.” Nice to have a reality based leader in the White House who isn't a puppet of Putin’s...


is buying Oil, that the US doesn´t even need, from Russia banned yet?

best regards
Thomas

Who was the US buying it for, I thought the congress approved the US exporting oil to among other countries, Europe?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14894
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:27 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
stasisLAX wrote:
“We stand up to bullies," President Biden said Thursday at the White House. "Americans stand up for freedom. This is who we are.” Nice to have a reality based leader in the White House who isn't a puppet of Putin’s...


is buying Oil, that the US doesn´t even need, from Russia banned yet?

best regards
Thomas

Who was the US buying it for


Itself. There are a couple of refineries in the US that can handle very sour crude oil that used to come out of Venezuela, and Russia was a cheap source of the raw material. Low oil prices made the US a net importer again, since import oil was simply cheaper than local wells.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:36 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

is buying Oil, that the US doesn´t even need, from Russia banned yet?

best regards
Thomas

Who was the US buying it for


Itself. There are a couple of refineries in the US that can handle very sour crude oil that used to come out of Venezuela, and Russia was a cheap source of the raw material. Low oil prices made the US a net importer again, since import oil was simply cheaper than local wells.

best regards
Thomas

No export approval by congress is required for the US to use oil imported from Russia.
Even gas is exported from the USA to Europe which was ramped up last year when the "gas crisis" hit Europe. Unfortunately for the US, whatever trade they have / had with Russia will make them a fall guy for what is presently taking place, folks are even saying its Trump fault.
Russia invaded 3 times before Trump, but he alone is responsible for number 4 which is a repeat, go figure.
Anyway, there will be plenty time to go through the "debris", however, it has been my observation that the PR folks usually get out in front and set / create the narrative that will form the base of public discourse, its not only hackers and extremist who use social media and the local media to establish and push agenda's. In Ukraine we will know that history will be written by the victors.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:07 pm

Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory.

If you think Macron is negotiating for his image and his presidential campaign, it's partly true. But you have to conclude that it's working or he wouldn't be doing it.

Just like Putin is invading Ukraine to make Russian people forget about their crappy lives under him.



Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
 
johns624
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:13 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory.

If you think Macron is negotiating for his image and his presidential campaign, it's partly true. But you have to conclude that it's working or he wouldn't be doing it.

Just like Putin is invading Ukraine to make Russian people forget about their crappy lives under him.



Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1939
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:22 pm

johns624 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory.

If you think Macron is negotiating for his image and his presidential campaign, it's partly true. But you have to conclude that it's working or he wouldn't be doing it.

Just like Putin is invading Ukraine to make Russian people forget about their crappy lives under him.



Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


NATO/EU boots in Ukraine won’t help and just escalate it more.
 
johns624
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:26 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:


Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


NATO/EU boots in Ukraine won’t help and just escalate it more.
I wasn't talking about Ukraine.
 
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par13del
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:27 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:


Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


NATO/EU boots in Ukraine won’t help and just escalate it more.

When, now or last year when Putin started massing troops on the border?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:29 pm

par13del wrote:
casinterest wrote:
So it is Europe's fault that they didn't get ready for the aggression that Trump enabled to Attack Ukraine? European Defenses have nothing to do currently with Trump's attacks.

I'll bite, how did Trump cause Russia to attack Georgia?
How did Trump cause Russia to attack Crimea?
How did Trump cause Russia to attack Ukraine the first time?
...but Trump is the reason why Russia is attacking Ukraine the second time, if we are to accept that, what happened the other three times, whose fault was that, Obama?
If you follow a time line, when did Putin start massing forces on the border of Ukraine, it was not in stealth, everyone with satellite feed could see it, many discounted the US Military when they said the invasion was imminent, Marcon had his meeting and was out front, did Trump sabotage there as well?
I sincerely hope that the blame Trump is a fringe and will not be used as justification for not doing more to prevent this tragedy.

What are you gaslighting about?

Are you upset that since Trump ,who is a corrupt, lying traitor, is supporting a Lying Corrupt dictator in Putin?

Are you one of those that thinks that Trump would have done "MORE" against Putin rather than just kneeling down before him like in Helsinki and throwing the US community under a bus?

Trump is as Anti American and Anti-World as you can get. Blaming Trump, Putin, and all of their acolytes is about as spot on as you can get as to how we got here.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:31 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory..


Putin is already threatening Nukes, so quite obviously mushroom clouds don´t scare him much.

best regards
Thomas

I missed the part about nukes, when did he say that?
 
GDB
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:33 pm

johns624 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory.

If you think Macron is negotiating for his image and his presidential campaign, it's partly true. But you have to conclude that it's working or he wouldn't be doing it.

Just like Putin is invading Ukraine to make Russian people forget about their crappy lives under him.



Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


Back in 2006 the French President made a speech at their SSBN base, surprisingly frank at least compared to the UK, with our paradox of the double reluctance, as a senior MoD official called the successive UK government's attitude, hating the costs but being more determined to maintain it despite that.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_03/MARCH-Chirac

There is no reason why his successors have changed that stance, it is equally likely that the UK's stance is similar, just not stated in public.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:35 pm

A Old Man survived after his car crashed by Russian tank in Kyiv.
Video shows an old man driving on the road but the Russian tank deliberately crashed his car . Luckily old man will survive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvNi_xZMejo
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:38 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
France has nuclear weapons. There is zero risk of an invasion of French territory..


Putin is already threatening Nukes, so quite obviously mushroom clouds don´t scare him much.

best regards
Thomas

I missed the part about nukes, when did he say that?

He said it indirectly but the message was 100% clear.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:41 pm

Mortyman wrote:
A Old Man survived after his car crashed by Russian tank in Kyiv.
Video shows an old man driving on the road but the Russian tank deliberately crashed his car . Luckily old man will survive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvNi_xZMejo



Between Snake Island, this, and the whole invasion, the Russians really aren't doing well on the hearts and minds side of things. Especially when you consider the argument for this was was about "Atrocities"
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:09 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.


Is anyone prepared to use nuclear weapons ? It's kind of the issue with them, isn't it ?
 
GDB
Posts: 15154
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:16 pm

extender wrote:
This isn't about hearts and minds, this is about getting what they want. They know there is a weakling in the White House, and Europe hasn't got the stomach to send troops to get chewed up in. Power abhors a vacuum. Putin is filling it. Now all the border nations to Russia should have their Spidey sense tingling; especially the Baltics.


Or maybe he is deluded in the same way as who you likely considered a strong President when he thought Iraqis would all welcome the US.
The goofball declaring ‘victory’ on an aircraft carrier right as the real fight, the insurgency started.
The Ukrainians are likely to be a stronger insurgency.

Your idea it seems of a ‘strong’ President was the one who spent four years sucking up to Putin, berating allies and even this week was bigging Vlad up. Not to mention letting 1000’s of Taliban prisoners go free and effectively sign away the country to them.
Or you could also try and convince us that all those GOP supporters wearing those ‘Rather Be Russian Than Democrat’ t-shirts somehow did not exist.
Stomach for a fight you say? So Vietnam, Lebanon in 1984, Mogadishu in 1993 and ultimately Iraq in 2011 didn’t happen either, this ‘we are the tough guys’ act is wearing very thin.

Very distorting, living in an echo chamber.
 
victrola
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:18 pm

It looks like the Ukranian armed forces are putting up a vigorous fight. I think Russia is encountering more than they counted on. They may be able to occupy the country. But will they ever be able to pacify it?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:19 pm

Aesma wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.


Is anyone prepared to use nuclear weapons ? It's kind of the issue with them, isn't it ?


The only benefit of nuclear weapons is the assumption that having them stops the other guy from hurling one at you.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:22 pm

victrola wrote:
It looks like the Ukranian armed forces are putting up a vigorous fight. I think Russia is encountering more than they counted on. They may be able to occupy the country. But will they ever be able to pacify it?


I guess the aim is to either depose the legitimate Ukrainian Government and replace it with a puppet who immediately declares Ukraine is neutral and will never join NATO. Or, they're hoping that if they put on enough pressure, that Zelenskyy himself will make that same call in order to have a ceasefire and truce.
 
Redd
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:24 pm

Some news here from Poland. A construction site I visited today was almost empty. Most of the workers were young Ukrainian men, the site manager said they're all on their way to Ukraine to fight. Tugs at the heart strings.

Already lots of refugees in Warsaw from Ukraine. Hundreds today at the Mint of Poland as a temporary registration site in Warsaw. Poland is also letting in Ukrainians without passports and giving them 14 days to register, in an effort to allow anyone in that is looking for safe harbor.

The Polish government has asked the employers of Ukrainian citizens that have gone to fight, to keep their jobs open for them, so they have something to come back to.
 
stratable
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:28 pm

This is from a New York Times article from April 3, 2008. The Russo-Georgian war started on August 1, 2008.

Germany and France have said they believe that since neither Ukraine nor Georgia is stable enough to enter the [NATO membership] program now, a membership plan would be an unnecessary offense to Russia, which firmly opposes the move. In fact, senior diplomats here said, the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has threatened to cancel his planned first-ever visit to the NATO meeting on Friday if the two former Soviet states enter the program for eventual membership.

Mrs. Merkel visited Moscow on March 8 and met Mr. Putin and his successor, Dmitri A. Medvedev. She told them that Russia would not be allowed a veto over NATO membership. But a senior German diplomat, Wolfgang Ischinger, said that offering membership to a divided Ukraine could destabilize the new government there, and that not enough diplomacy had taken place beforehand with Russia.


Bush junior wanted Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. France, Germany, and other European countries were vehemently opposed at the time due to the lack of functioning democracy in either country, and to avoid provoking the Russians.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html
 
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par13del
Posts: 11346
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:30 pm

GDB wrote:
extender wrote:
This isn't about hearts and minds, this is about getting what they want. They know there is a weakling in the White House, and Europe hasn't got the stomach to send troops to get chewed up in. Power abhors a vacuum. Putin is filling it. Now all the border nations to Russia should have their Spidey sense tingling; especially the Baltics.


Or maybe he is deluded in the same way as who you likely considered a strong President when he thought Iraqis would all welcome the US.
The goofball declaring ‘victory’ on an aircraft carrier right as the real fight, the insurgency started.
The Ukrainians are likely to be a stronger insurgency.

Your idea it seems of a ‘strong’ President was the one who spent four years sucking up to Putin, berating allies and even this week was bigging Vlad up. Not to mention letting 1000’s of Taliban prisoners go free and effectively sign away the country to them.
Or you could also try and convince us that all those GOP supporters wearing those ‘Rather Be Russian Than Democrat’ t-shirts somehow did not exist.
Stomach for a fight you say? So Vietnam, Lebanon in 1984, Mogadishu in 1993 and ultimately Iraq in 2011 didn’t happen either, this ‘we are the tough guys’ act is wearing very thin.

Very distorting, living in an echo chamber.

So that is the USA screwing up the world, getting thousands of their own soldiers killed along with thousands of innocent civilians and spending billions supporting their defense industry and oh yea, taking the oil out.
How did that create the invasion in Georgia, then Crimea, then Ukraine and now Ukraine again? The entire world watched troops massing on the Ukraine border from last year, is the invasion really a surprise, and if so, do we all now accept that Trump is to blame and we now move forward trying to clean up his mess?
 
johns624
Posts: 5344
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:32 pm

GDB wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:


Yes, but is France prepared to use them ? It's one thing to have nukes, It's a totally different thing to actually use them.
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


Back in 2006 the French President made a speech at their SSBN base, surprisingly frank at least compared to the UK, with our paradox of the double reluctance, as a senior MoD official called the successive UK government's attitude, hating the costs but being more determined to maintain it despite that.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_03/MARCH-Chirac

There is no reason why his successors have changed that stance, it is equally likely that the UK's stance is similar, just not stated in public.
I wasn't speaking of nuclear forces, but conventional ones. We just had a thread in the M&SA forum where someone posted a chart on the readiness rate of various French aircraft. IIRC, the Rafale was in the low 30s. My comment was are NATO forces really ready to fight? You can't change those readiness levels overnight. Maybe the budget for spares and extras needs to be increased? Maybe the Type 45 propulsion issue fixes need to be put on the fast track? Maybe the "for, but not with" spaces need to be filled with weapons?
 
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par13del
Posts: 11346
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:34 pm

stratable wrote:
This is from a New York Times article from April 3, 2008. The Russo-Georgian war started on August 1, 2008.

Germany and France have said they believe that since neither Ukraine nor Georgia is stable enough to enter the [NATO membership] program now, a membership plan would be an unnecessary offense to Russia, which firmly opposes the move. In fact, senior diplomats here said, the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has threatened to cancel his planned first-ever visit to the NATO meeting on Friday if the two former Soviet states enter the program for eventual membership.

Mrs. Merkel visited Moscow on March 8 and met Mr. Putin and his successor, Dmitri A. Medvedev. She told them that Russia would not be allowed a veto over NATO membership. But a senior German diplomat, Wolfgang Ischinger, said that offering membership to a divided Ukraine could destabilize the new government there, and that not enough diplomacy had taken place beforehand with Russia.


Bush junior wanted Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. France, Germany, and other European countries were vehemently opposed at the time due to the lack of functioning democracy in either country, and to avoid provoking the Russians.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html

Which is the strength of NATO, one member - even the USA - cannot dictate to the group, Ukraine was never made a member and the odds of it happening now or in the foreseeable future are virtually dead and deader, ditto for any other new members in the new term.
 
victrola
Posts: 868
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:38 pm

extender wrote:
This isn't about hearts and minds, this is about getting what they want. They know there is a weakling in the White House, and Europe hasn't got the stomach to send troops to get chewed up in. Power abhors a vacuum. Putin is filling it. Now all the border nations to Russia should have their Spidey sense tingling; especially the Baltics.


"Weakling in the White House"??? What would you have our President do tough guy? Guys like you are all talk and no action. Should he invade send troops into Ukraine. You always make the mistake of believing guys like Trump who shoot their mouths off and make threats are tough guys. Anyone can talk tough. Our President who doesn't have the support of at least 60 Senators is very limited in what he can do. However, since you know all about being tough, give us your strategy for the Ukraine situation now.
 
extender
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:41 pm

To answer your questions, no, we should not send troops to Ukraine. That ship has long since sailed. I don't pretend to be a biomedical expert, nor a foreign policy expert, but I know baloney when I see it.
 
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william
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Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:44 pm

victrola wrote:
It looks like the Ukranian armed forces are putting up a vigorous fight. I think Russia is encountering more than they counted on. They may be able to occupy the country. But will they ever be able to pacify it?


Per France24 and Skynews on Youtube, Kiev is surrounded and its been less than 48 hours since invasion. That is Desert Storm speed.
 
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Tugger
Posts: 11863
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:46 pm

stratable wrote:
extender wrote:
This isn't about hearts and minds, this is about getting what they want. They know there is a weakling in the White House, and Europe hasn't got the stomach to send troops to get chewed up in. Power abhors a vacuum. Putin is filling it. Now all the border nations to Russia should have their Spidey sense tingling; especially the Baltics.


Do you want to start a nuclear war with Russia?

The only one "starting" anything is Russia/Putin.

If the nations that are friendly (supposedly) to Ukraine were to send in support for their fight, that would NOT be an escalation nor "starting a nuclear war". The question is would Russia/Putin escalate? He probably would conventionally but I doubt he would do so with nukes, that would end all chance of his political survival as even China would have to abandon him and such actions publicly.

And honestly I think Putin is praying/expecting the nations west of Ukraine do nothing because if they do he will have a real problem on his hands and will likely lose in the short term (he'll keep up and create as many new "insurgencies" as he can but the active war and the expense involved in both men and treasure will become too much).

Tugg
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 17923
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:48 pm

extender wrote:
To answer your questions, no, we should not send troops to Ukraine. That ship has long since sailed. I don't pretend to be a biomedical expert, nor a foreign policy expert, but I know baloney when I see it.


Monday morning quarterbacking is a dime a dozen spectator sport.
 
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par13del
Posts: 11346
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:53 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
extender wrote:
To answer your questions, no, we should not send troops to Ukraine. That ship has long since sailed. I don't pretend to be a biomedical expert, nor a foreign policy expert, but I know baloney when I see it.


Monday morning quarterbacking is a dime a dozen spectator sport.

...as is the Ostrich mentality, but as stated, those ships have long since sailed. Now we have to look forward.
 
johns624
Posts: 5344
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:53 pm

Tugger wrote:
stratable wrote:
extender wrote:
This isn't about hearts and minds, this is about getting what they want. They know there is a weakling in the White House, and Europe hasn't got the stomach to send troops to get chewed up in. Power abhors a vacuum. Putin is filling it. Now all the border nations to Russia should have their Spidey sense tingling; especially the Baltics.


Do you want to start a nuclear war with Russia?

The only one "starting" anything is Russia/Putin.

If the nations that are friendly (supposedly) to Ukraine were to send in support for their fight, that would NOT be an escalation nor "starting a nuclear war". The question is would Russia/Putin escalate? He probably would conventionally but I doubt he would do so with nukes, that would end all chance of his political survival as even China would have to abandon him and such actions publicly.

And honestly I think Putin is praying/expecting the nations west of Ukraine do nothing because if they do he will have a real problem on his hands and will likely lose in the short term (he'll keep up and create as many new "insurgencies" as he can but the active war and the expense involved in both men and treasure will become too much).

Tugg
I think Putin "knew" that the rest of Europe wouldn't do anything. They can't even agree on enacting the really hard economic sanctions.
Last edited by johns624 on Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GDB
Posts: 15154
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:54 pm

johns624 wrote:
GDB wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I think that the further west you move in the EU, the less the chance that any country is ready to even use their conventional forces. That's why even Germany has lousy operational rates. The first line countries know they may have to fight, the others, not so much.


Back in 2006 the French President made a speech at their SSBN base, surprisingly frank at least compared to the UK, with our paradox of the double reluctance, as a senior MoD official called the successive UK government's attitude, hating the costs but being more determined to maintain it despite that.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_03/MARCH-Chirac

There is no reason why his successors have changed that stance, it is equally likely that the UK's stance is similar, just not stated in public.
I wasn't speaking of nuclear forces, but conventional ones. We just had a thread in the M&SA forum where someone posted a chart on the readiness rate of various French aircraft. IIRC, the Rafale was in the low 30s. My comment was are NATO forces really ready to fight? You can't change those readiness levels overnight. Maybe the budget for spares and extras needs to be increased? Maybe the Type 45 propulsion issue fixes need to be put on the fast track? Maybe the "for, but not with" spaces need to be filled with weapons?


Which ones, AF or Navy? Since Rafales have been pretty busy in the last few years operationally.
So I am dubious at some of those figures.

The German Typhoons on the other hand, while they are doing their share of air policing for NATO, as are others, including RAF Typhoons. But the RAF Typhoons out of Cyprus have been doing operational missions over Syria for some years, including munitions release, recce and this year, bringing down a drone.
This week, the RAF Typhoons went from Red Flag straight to reinforce the deployment on Cyprus and others are being kept busy intercepting Russian bombers and overflying Russian ships mucking around UK and Irish territorial waters/
I would contend that if Germany's deployments were similar, their availability rate would soon rise.

For most of last year two T45's were deployed around the world with the carrier group, one went into the Black Sea and pissed the Russians off, others have been deployed to the mid East. Sure some are in refit, none have been wrecked by fire though have they, like a certain amphibious USN vessel.
That extra space is being used, since it has been approved to fit 24 Seaceptor missiles into the ships, to enhance the short range defence.

I'm not making excuses for gaps which I am annoyed about too, just making the point that if your defence stance means you have to use your assets more, you get the spares, get the availability up.
I strongly suspect that Germany will be making some concerted efforts, despite the rhetoric and despite the less than fully supportive elements in German politics, they've started from a low base admittedly since Ukraine in 2014.
Being pressured into giving up on Nord Stream was a big step for them, reversing a major strategic (and environmental) error.
 
johns624
Posts: 5344
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:57 pm

With Ukraine soon to be a Russian satellite, is giving up Nordstream 2 really a loss? They can use the original pipeline and not have to pay Ukraine royalties. That was the whole point of N2.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 801
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:59 pm

william wrote:
victrola wrote:
It looks like the Ukranian armed forces are putting up a vigorous fight. I think Russia is encountering more than they counted on. They may be able to occupy the country. But will they ever be able to pacify it?


Per France24 and Skynews on Youtube, Kiev is surrounded and its been less than 48 hours since invasion. That is Desert Storm speed.



Yes because Kiev is so close to traitor Belarus!!!

But huge respect to the Ukrainian military on putting some heavy losses on the Russians!!!! We know Ukraine will suffer very heavy losses, but that is given when your enemy spends 10x more on their military.

Russian losses as claimed by Ukraine, in 48 hours since the war started.

Tanks -80
Military vehicles-516
Aircraft -10
Helicopters-7
Personnel- 2800


In polish. Scroll down to time 15:15
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 17923
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:05 pm

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
extender wrote:
To answer your questions, no, we should not send troops to Ukraine. That ship has long since sailed. I don't pretend to be a biomedical expert, nor a foreign policy expert, but I know baloney when I see it.


Monday morning quarterbacking is a dime a dozen spectator sport.

...as is the Ostrich mentality, but as stated, those ships have long since sailed. Now we have to look forward.


Nobody said geopolitics isn't complex - or that realpolitik doesn't sometimes barf unintended vomit back into one's own country. Germany found that out shutting down nuclear power, didn't they?

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