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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:33 am

speedygonzales wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Just saw on French TV a quick answer from the German government spokesman about cutting Russia off SWIFT. He said it would "complicate things" for buying energy and for all the German companies doing business with Russia. I don't know if it was on purpose but he basically implied his government wanted business as usual with Russia...


Germany needs to stand up be counted they need to shut their airspace off to Russia and push for cutting off SWIFT . I cant believe Russian aircraft are still landing on German soil .

Germany needs their precious Russian gas thanks to the environmentally and geopolitically disastrous nuclear passe out :banghead:

In my opinion, Germany has played the role of mini-villian. Every opportunity to really help Ukraine has been "complicated."

When a country is fighting for its life, half measures are pointless. At least Germany finally sent the helmets:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/germany-f ... asion/amp/

At least Poland supplies ammo:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... eshow.html

Lightsaber
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:47 am

lightsaber wrote:
speedygonzales wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Germany needs to stand up be counted they need to shut their airspace off to Russia and push for cutting off SWIFT . I cant believe Russian aircraft are still landing on German soil .

Germany needs their precious Russian gas thanks to the environmentally and geopolitically disastrous nuclear passe out :banghead:

In my opinion, Germany has played the role of mini-villian. Every opportunity to really help Ukraine has been "complicated."

When a country is fighting for its life, half measures are pointless. At least Germany finally sent the helmets:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/germany-f ... asion/amp/

At least Poland supplies ammo:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... eshow.html

Lightsaber

Haven’t seen this posted yet, France is also stepping up:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-25-22/h_49b1e98e5d017deb2dd77ad572fbc7bd

Macron wrote that France will provide Ukraine with a “additional budgetary assistance of 300 million euros” and “will provide the defensive material they need."
 
petertenthije
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:57 am

The netherlands are delivering 200 stinger missiles, as well as other (unspecified) military assistance.

Source: latest update on this timeline
https://nos.nl/collectie/13888/liveblog ... door-raket
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:59 am

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyj has thanked Sweden on twitter for sending military, technological and humanitarian aid to Ukraine during the Russian invasion.
https://www.di.se/nyheter/zelenskyj-tac ... ns-fattat/

However officially the Swedish government have not yet (officially/publicly) made any decision on whether or not to send aid to Ukraine.
https://www.di.se/nyheter/inga-klara-be ... l-ukraina/

Swedish signal intelligence aircraft (SVF622) are also patrolling over Baltic sea close the Baltic countries and Kaliningrad.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=4a81f9
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:24 am

lugie wrote:
THS214 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Your alternative is to let multiple suns rain on Europe…. That will certainly help….


Not going to happen. Even if Putin is that crazy others are not and they will stop him before that happen.


Exactly. People keep forgetting that, for now, all of Putin's thinly veiled threats about nuclear strikes in case of Western involvement in Ukraine are just that, threats.

Now obviously the West needs to make it very clear that any first strike would be followed by a response. An "accidentally leaked" memo showing targets for a response strike in Russia and Belarus could help. As long as Putin thinks the West's attitude to MAD is the same as Germany's attitude to ever so slightly damaging our economy with SWIFT sanctions he feels emboldened to threaten nuclear bombings.

But if he's made aware that any use of nuclear weapons will mean the absolute obliteration of any man-made structure in Russia within 20 minutes, that calculus will change, at which point NATO countries can seriously entertain the thought of intervening in Ukraine.

Putin's nationalistic fantasies may appear driven by pure psychosis but there's some calculus behind them. And nuclear retaliation sure doesn't help that calculus, because it would mean there would be no longer be a Russia - not in its borders of Feb 21st, 2022, nor in those of 2014, nor 1980, nor 1917.


Response by french government on nuclear threat:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-says-putin-needs-understand-nato-has-nuclear-weapons-2022-02-24/
 
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DanielsBrawley
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:50 am

Damn proud of those brave Ukrainians fighting that devil. The Russian conscripts couldn’t have expected what they’ve faced. One side are people fighting for their home, the other is people fighting for a lunatic. I’d take 2 Ukrainians for every 10 Russian conscripts.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:05 am

I was asked by a mod to bring up some sources for the claim that Denmark and Germany are mobilising additional troops for NATO.

Regarding Denmark: They now made 20 F-16 available:
https://www.msn.com/da-dk/nyheder/indla ... ar-AAUgEI3

"Danmark vil blandt andet sende flere tropper og vil bidrage med 20 F-16-kampfly til at overvåge luftrummet over Nato-lande."

Regarding Germany: Patriots will be sent to Slovakia:

https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/02/bund ... -slowakei/

The Source is a secondary source, but it is reliable. On top of it, a F-124 frigate and a corvette will be deployed to the baltic sea. The F-124 is one of the strongest frigates Germany has, and is considered a destroyer by some sources.

Apart from that, discussion in Germany is kicking in a way I have never read. The naive tone is gone, even in German TV, a retired German general is talking openly about the military situation. It seems Germany have grown up.
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:14 am

Aesma wrote:
Just saw on French TV a quick answer from the German government spokesman about cutting Russia off SWIFT. He said it would "complicate things" for buying energy and for all the German companies doing business with Russia. I don't know if it was on purpose but he basically implied his government wanted business as usual with Russia...

I don’t think they want “business as usual”, but they have to consider all options and consequences. And it could complicate things further, because Russia and China already have an alternative for SWIFT up and running.

Russia has SPFS: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS

China: https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/chinas-swift-alternative-may-undercut-us-sanctions/

So banning Russia from SWIFT will hurt them, but will it be enough? And -more important- are “we” (the West) willing and able to take the consequences it will have for us? Not only short time, but in the long (geopolitical) run as well.

Unfortunately it isn’t as simple as some suggest..
 
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OA260
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:25 am

Poland to refuse to play Russia in World Cup qualifier after Ukraine invasion

https://theathletic.com/news/poland-to- ... PbxeortO5/

Will be interesting to see how this goes down and who else will act.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:28 am

DanielsBrawley wrote:
Damn proud of those brave Ukrainians fighting that devil. The Russian conscripts couldn’t have expected what they’ve faced. One side are people fighting for their home, the other is people fighting for a lunatic. I’d take 2 Ukrainians for every 10 Russian conscripts.



Yes! Such a huge respect to the Ukrainian military and the people for being able to stand up to putin and russia. DP prime minister of Ukraine is asking the International Red Cross to come pick up the dead bodies of russians and take them out!!!

So far russia lost.
14 aircraft
8 helicopters
102 tanks
536 armored vehicles
15 rocket launchers
1 SAM BUK launcher
3500 enemy dead
200 as POW

“Ukraińska armia: szacowane straty przeciwnika to: samoloty - 14 szt., śmigłowce - 8 szt., czołgi - 102 szt., BBM - 536 szt., działa - 15 szt., SAM BUK-1 szt. Zginęło ponad 3500 rosyjskich okupantów, a prawie 200 dostało się do niewoli.”

In polish, minute by minute need to scroll down a bit
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
Last edited by SRQLOT on Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:47 am

I guess I forgot the link to the update Info

Poland will send 10k Grot rifles and Javelins to Ukraine
Czechia around 7m euro in weapons and now
Slovakia will send 2.6m Euro in weapons and 8.4m euro in other assistance

This site is using minute by minute updates and all polish websites are using the same information
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:54 am

SRQLOT wrote:
I guess I forgot the link to the update Info

Poland will send 10k Grot rifles and Javelins to Ukraine
Czechia around 7m euro in weapons and now
Slovakia will send 2.6m Euro in weapons and 8.4m euro in other assistance

This site is using minute by minute updates and all polish websites are using the same information
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4


...and don't forget that Germany sends its best wishes ;)
 
cpd
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:55 am

DanielsBrawley wrote:
Damn proud of those brave Ukrainians fighting that devil. The Russian conscripts couldn’t have expected what they’ve faced. One side are people fighting for their home, the other is people fighting for a lunatic. I’d take 2 Ukrainians for every 10 Russian conscripts.


Especially the one who was setting explosives to demolish a key bridge. The team wasn't fast enough and he wouldn't have been able to make it off the bridge in time to detonate the explosives remotely. He had the explosives detonated manually, losing his life in the process. :(

https://7news.com.au/news/conflict/ukra ... -c-5847191
 
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DanielsBrawley
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:59 am

OA260 wrote:
Poland to refuse to play Russia in World Cup qualifier after Ukraine invasion

https://theathletic.com/news/poland-to- ... PbxeortO5/

Will be interesting to see how this goes down and who else will act.


This is a perfect post for the “news” topic just created and stickied at the top of the forum. Every little bit counts especially if FIFA starts rumbling about kicking Russia from WC. That hits home with Russian citizens who could be instrumental in pressuring Putin.
 
Derico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:01 am

I guess thinking very long term here, when this is all settled in the sense that Ukraine has regained its ability to conduct an independent foreign policy without outside threat, there could be some sort of mini-Marshall plan by the EU to speed up Ukraine's development, as some sort of "making up" for the fact that in this crisis the EU and NATO had their hands tied.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:05 am

Assuming Ukraine gets through this (fingers crossed they will), the above definitely needs to happen.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:10 am

So a question. Since russia is using only 1/4-1/3 of the 190k troops they had amassed around Ukraine. What is the plan hold up with the rest for now?? I’m guessing they were there to move in all over Ukraine to manage the occupation once the russian attack was successful on taking control. I get it, it’s been only 3 days, but at some point they will go in right? I’m just surprised they haven’t already.
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:17 am

Ukraine invasion - Boris Johnson directly addresses Russian people in their own language: 'I do not believe this war is in your name'

Earlier on Friday, it was announced that the UK will impose direct sanctions on Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov imminently.

Mr Johnson also said that "immediate action" must be taken to ban Russia from the SWIFT global interbank messaging system that helps facilitate payments.to "inflict maximum pain" on President Putin.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the government is introducing the sanctions against President Putin and Mr Lavrov "in response to Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine".

"We will not stop inflicting economic pain on the Kremlin until Ukrainian sovereignty is restored," she added.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... e-12551719



I wonder if the anti tank artillery that was being sent from the UK made it before the invasion started. They need to send a lot more lethal weapons.When you see some of the interviews of Ukranian soldiers and the obvious fear they have for their families and so young themselves yet they are determined to not go without fighting to the last.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:28 am

So far 100,000 Ukrainians entered Poland. Between all the food and water being brought to the train station at the border in Przemysl and people taking in Ukrainians into their homes. Search and news websites in Poland are providing information in polish and ukrainian for easy info. Polish railway provider PKP Intercity announced that Ukrainians will be able to travel for free for 4 weeks on their trains.

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:38 am

OA260 wrote:
Poland to refuse to play Russia in World Cup qualifier after Ukraine invasion

https://theathletic.com/news/poland-to- ... PbxeortO5/

Will be interesting to see how this goes down and who else will act.


Hopefully it will prompt FIFA to ban Russia. If they refuse, every other nation worth its salt should follow Poland's example.

While I applauded UEFA's swift removal of the Champions League final from St Petersburg, they're still letting Russian teams compete in UEFA competitions. Throw them all out.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:56 am

Zelenskyy has confirmed from Italian Prime Minister that Italy supports kicking Russia off Swift.

Germany is leaning toward it, meaning the only holdout is Orban in Hungary.

Deep down Orban probably has some sympathy for Putin for his far right leanings, but his decision will probably be more along economic lines. They import Russian gas but trade mostly with the EU, and as we know from history there's no deep love for Russian invasions in Hungary.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/ ... 6480869378
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:37 pm

And big breaking news.....

According to the Polish PM Orban has AGREED to remove Russia from Swift!

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/stat ... 5997254661

This could be a turning point. It will take a few days to take effect, maybe Putin will launch a last ditch attempt to gain as much ground as possible, then call a ceasefire just before the Swift ban comes into effect?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Does business or principles win out? Only excluding Russia from SWIFT is meaningful. It stops all large scale trade. It prevents funneling money to shell companies (which is undoubtedly happening).


I will play the devil's advocate now.

Biden has tried to get gas to the EU. That's about all that has happened that I heard of. If we really stop doing business with Russia, and especially stop buying their gas, it's an immense, almost unimaginable cost to Germany's economy, without even mentioning people getting cold. A lot of industry would grind to a halt. Fertilizer costs would skyrocket, food production would take a dive. Wheat prices, through the roof. This would in turn hurt all other European countries. Are our allies ready to send us help similar to a Marshall plan (or rather 10 of them) to weather this ?
 
Virtual737
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Does business or principles win out? Only excluding Russia from SWIFT is meaningful. It stops all large scale trade. It prevents funneling money to shell companies (which is undoubtedly happening).


I will play the devil's advocate now.

Biden has tried to get gas to the EU. That's about all that has happened that I heard of. If we really stop doing business with Russia, and especially stop buying their gas, it's an immense, almost unimaginable cost to Germany's economy, without even mentioning people getting cold. A lot of industry would grind to a halt. Fertilizer costs would skyrocket, food production would take a dive. Wheat prices, through the roof. This would in turn hurt all other European countries. Are our allies ready to send us help similar to a Marshall plan (or rather 10 of them) to weather this ?


Is Germany prepared to immediately start the re-activation of the nuclear power stations it decommissioned to rely on Russian energy? If so, great.

I also see that Air France, Lufthansa, Qantas, KLM and many others are still enjoying Russian overflight permissions.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
speedygonzales wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Germany needs to stand up be counted they need to shut their airspace off to Russia and push for cutting off SWIFT . I cant believe Russian aircraft are still landing on German soil .

Germany needs their precious Russian gas thanks to the environmentally and geopolitically disastrous nuclear passe out :banghead:

In my opinion, Germany has played the role of mini-villian. Every opportunity to really help Ukraine has been "complicated."

When a country is fighting for its life, half measures are pointless. At least Germany finally sent the helmets:
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/germany-f ... asion/amp/

At least Poland supplies ammo:
https://www.republicworld.com/amp/world ... eshow.html

Lightsaber


While I’m all on board with calling out the generally anemic support (western and otherwise) for Ukraine, I think it’s a bit absurd to characterize Germany (a country I have no link to) as a “villain”.

They’re putting their interests first. And they’ve learned from the best, haven’t they? Or are we pretending that 2016-2020, with Trump’s gratuitous attacks on Merkel, interspersed with praise for Putin, never happened? NATO’s very survival was being questioned then.

What’s to say that won’t happen again? What’s to say Trump won’t be re-elected in 2024 and leave Europe out in the cold? There were lots of warnings that trust was being eroded back then. It wasn’t helped by the way AUKUS was handled. And then there’s Brexit. The US may go full Katy Perry -hot and then cold on Europe - for decades to come. The UK may be back to lobbing insults and blowing up trade relationships in a matter of weeks. Russia, on the other hand, isn’t going to move from their doorstep. This is what erosion of trust looks like.

The strategic calculation for Germany and France has changed over the past 5 years - and it isn’t because those countries changed in any fundamental way. That isn’t to say I agree with their approach - just pointing out that they’re behaving in a way that many on the American right (which may soon be in power again) would approve of. Is that shortsighted? Or is long sighted? I don’t know. The only clear thing is that Europe needs to find a security equilibrium (military or diplomatic) that doesn’t assume pre-2016 US guarantees will be around in even 2 years.

As to whether they can do more, sure. But the reality is all of this support isn’t nearly as effective as boots on the ground, and a lot of countries (well pretty much the entire planet) has chosen to sit back and let it play out. A few German guns and a bank messaging (not transacting) system aren’t going to change that.

Ukraine just reminds us of the scale of work ahead of us to rebuild the “west” after the damage wreaked by the “my country first” populist nationalist surges of the past 7 years.

That said, the Ukrainian leadership and resistance have been nothing short of magnificent given what they’re up against. Zelensky is surely a legendary figure now. It’s just a shame - and a collective failure - that we can’t figure out how to stop this (and no, nothing Germany does is going to move the dial one way or the other). The only upside is that this might focus western minds again after the populist nationalist distraction of the past 6 years.
Last edited by ElPistolero on Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:14 pm

Stop this constant rediculous Germany bashing. The enemy sits in the east.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:18 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Stop this constant rediculous Germany bashing. The enemy sits in the east.


Do you trade with an enemy ? Do you rely on a enemy ?
 
Arion640
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:21 pm

I always supported my countries permanent seat on the UN security council.

However, after last night I think they should be completely abolished. No nation should have a Veto.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:22 pm

A friendly reminder, please provide a link to your source when stating facts or make ot clear you are stating your opinion.

Posts which have the only purpose to provoke other users will be deleted, warnings and bans issued.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:28 pm

So is it about to escalate to a nuclear war??

Russia is claiming that Ukraine is about to drop a dirty bomb on the Russian territory!!! putin must be annoyed that the conventional war is not going his way so next step is nuclear?

“ Russian propaganda has gone off the rails and speculates Ukraine might be preparing to drop a ‘dirty bomb’ on the Russian territory. This is a sick fake. Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, doesn’t conduct any work to create/acquire them. We are a responsible member of the NPT.” DmytroKuleba

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:29 pm

OA260 wrote:
Ukraine invasion - Boris Johnson directly addresses Russian people in their own language: 'I do not believe this war is in your name'

Earlier on Friday, it was announced that the UK will impose direct sanctions on Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov imminently.

Mr Johnson also said that "immediate action" must be taken to ban Russia from the SWIFT global interbank messaging system that helps facilitate payments.to "inflict maximum pain" on President Putin.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the government is introducing the sanctions against President Putin and Mr Lavrov "in response to Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine".

"We will not stop inflicting economic pain on the Kremlin until Ukrainian sovereignty is restored," she added.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... e-12551719



I wonder if the anti tank artillery that was being sent from the UK made it before the invasion started. They need to send a lot more lethal weapons.When you see some of the interviews of Ukranian soldiers and the obvious fear they have for their families and so young themselves yet they are determined to not go without fighting to the last.


He can say what he likes in any language, under him, his party got £2M in donations from dubious Russian sources, his party has only made it easier for ‘Londongrad’ to be a thing

On the plus side the NLAWs were delivered and training done well before, if the reports from the MoD via the Armed Forces Minister are right, they are proving effective. Worth noting unlike a lot of anti tank rockets they can be used in more confined spaces. As the ex Army Officer Defence Secretary pointed out in one interview where Russian armour was seen advancing between tower blocks, unsupported armour is very vulnerable in that environment.
There was never going to be a conventional ‘win’ for the Ukrainians, the forces too unevenly matched, they can however quagmire Putin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb3HoHgTbkw

Another thing to consider, the usual mass disinformation the Russia usually pulls has not been much in evidence, all those NATO and others, notably Sweden, with their ISR assets can give an account of a lot of what is happening.
Last edited by GDB on Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:32 pm

Do not see the need for diplomatic ties: - Put padlocks on the embassies

Dimitrij Medvedev

- We no longer have a particular need for diplomatic ties to the West, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his page on the Russian social media VK on Saturday. He now sits on the security council in the country.

- Now is the time to put padlocks on the embassies, and continue the contact through the binoculars and weapon sights, he continues the ice cold message.

Medvedev says according to Reuters that the sanctions imposed on Russia now give the country a "good reason to withdraw" from agreements on disarmament of nuclear weapons.

He also states that the Russian political leadership will continue its operations in Ukraine until they have reached the goal of "demilitarization and de-Nazification" of the country.



For the record, Ukraine has a democratically elected non-Nazi government, led by the country's first Jewish president. The country is also militarily inferior to the Russian war machine.



https://direkte.vg.no/krig-i-ukraina/ne ... _row2_pos1


Article translated from Norwegian to English
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I always supported my countries permanent seat on the UN security council.

However, after last night I think they should be completely abolished. No nation should have a Veto.


My country also has a seat but from a practical POV, the problem with the UN is that it's too easy to sway votes. Let's say any decision was taken by a simple majority (or maybe a qualified majority), big powers probably can have 50 countries in their pocket voting as they wish.

Some countries have 3 citizens yet their vote would be worth as much as China with more than 1 billion ? A dictatorship where people have no say has as much voice as a liberal democracy ?
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Aesma wrote:
TheSonntag wrote:
Stop this constant rediculous Germany bashing. The enemy sits in the east.


Do you trade with an enemy ? Do you rely on a enemy ?


A country only becomes the “enemy” once war is declared.

Until then, it’s just a hostile state.

As far as I can tell, a lot of countries are doing everything they can to avoid designating a certain country as an enemy.

Including France.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:41 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
So is it about to escalate to a nuclear war??

Russia is claiming that Ukraine is about to drop a dirty bomb on the Russian territory!!! putin must be annoyed that the conventional war is not going his way so next step is nuclear?

“ Russian propaganda has gone off the rails and speculates Ukraine might be preparing to drop a ‘dirty bomb’ on the Russian territory. This is a sick fake. Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, doesn’t conduct any work to create/acquire them. We are a responsible member of the NPT.” DmytroKuleba

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4


Probably laying the ground for a more “total war” approach. A “War crime” like dirty bomb makes it easier to justify levelling cities with high civilian casualties. I don’t think anyone was expecting such firm resistance and resilience, and the longer it goes on, the more difficult it becomes to sustain under international and domestic pressure.

At which point going more indiscriminate (but not nuclear) might become attractive.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:45 pm

But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:54 pm

How important are 2,000 NLAW anti-tank missiles supplied by UK in January? Will use of Russia's tanks be greatly hampered by the threat they present?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:57 pm

Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


Ukraine has 44 million people, most of them now firmly anti-Russian. Russia has never occupied even close to a large population, South Ossetia, Chechnya, Donbas only have a fraction of that population. Occupying it will require 1-2 million Russian troops in country, all their active duty personnel and half the reserves. And no doubt a low level insurgency supported by the West.

My thought is -

Russia wants control of the east, maybe Kharkiv. They also want control of Mariupol and maybe Odessa, for full Black Sea north coast control and the Sea of Azov.

They intend to capture Kiev, but then not occupy it permanently. Once captured and the Ukrainian government flees, probably to Lviv, Putin calls a ceasefire. This will also be used as a bargaining chip to restore Swift. Then calls for negotiations to give Kiev back to Ukraine but keep the Black Sea ports and some land to the East. Guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO or allows NATO forces in the country. This is the short term goal.

Long term goal will be ensure Ukraine’s government becomes Moscow friendly.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:04 pm

art wrote:
How important are 2,000 NLAW anti-tank missiles supplied by UK in January? Will use of Russia's tanks be greatly hampered by the threat they present?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW


I would think so. Lethal, compact, easy to use and almost fire & forget.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:11 pm

Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


He leveled Chechnya and now the Chechen leadership are some of Putin's strongest domestic allies.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:13 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
So is it about to escalate to a nuclear war??

Russia is claiming that Ukraine is about to drop a dirty bomb on the Russian territory!!! putin must be annoyed that the conventional war is not going his way so next step is nuclear?

“ Russian propaganda has gone off the rails and speculates Ukraine might be preparing to drop a ‘dirty bomb’ on the Russian territory. This is a sick fake. Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, doesn’t conduct any work to create/acquire them. We are a responsible member of the NPT.” DmytroKuleba

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4


Probably laying the ground for a more “total war” approach. A “War crime” like dirty bomb makes it easier to justify levelling cities with high civilian casualties. I don’t think anyone was expecting such firm resistance and resilience, and the longer it goes on, the more difficult it becomes to sustain under international and domestic pressure.

At which point going more indiscriminate (but not nuclear) might become attractive.


Soviet and Russian doctrine has normalized nuclear weapons use for decades. But yes, I could easily see the Russians creating a false provocation with a dirty bomb to threaten nuclear use.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:14 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


Ukraine has 44 million people, most of them now firmly anti-Russian. Russia has never occupied even close to a large population, South Ossetia, Chechnya, Donbas only have a fraction of that population. Occupying it will require 1-2 million Russian troops in country, all their active duty personnel and half the reserves. And no doubt a low level insurgency supported by the West.

My thought is -

Russia wants control of the east, maybe Kharkiv. They also want control of Mariupol and maybe Odessa, for full Black Sea north coast control and the Sea of Azov.

They intend to capture Kiev, but then not occupy it permanently. Once captured and the Ukrainian government flees, probably to Lviv, Putin calls a ceasefire. This will also be used as a bargaining chip to restore Swift. Then calls for negotiations to give Kiev back to Ukraine but keep the Black Sea ports and some land to the East. Guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO or allows NATO forces in the country. This is the short term goal.

Long term goal will be ensure Ukraine’s government becomes Moscow friendly.


I also include control of the Dniper river to ensure water to the Crimea.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:16 pm

Aesma wrote:
Are our allies ready to send us help similar to a Marshall plan (or rather 10 of them) to weather this ?


The US national debt is something like 30 Trillion USD. That's 125% of the US GDP.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:19 pm

art wrote:
How important are 2,000 NLAW anti-tank missiles supplied by UK in January? Will use of Russia's tanks be greatly hampered by the threat they present?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW


NLAW is a nasty piece of kit. The dream of weapons designers has been something with the power to really kill an MBT while being reasonably individually man-portable (which in reality means the weapon needs to in the 12-15 kg range.)

NLAW is probably the answer. The Americans had Dragon, which was far more dangerous to the user than the target. Russian/Soviet stuff like RPG-29 was close but really on the far edge of "man-portable."
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:48 pm

If Ukraine has these anti-tank missiles, is there any evidence they used them ? Didn't Russia destroy the depots where they were stored in the initial attack ? From seeing Poroshenko saying he basically has 2 rifles, 3 machine guns and a couple manpads, it doesn't seem that this weaponry is in Kiev. And remember this guy is a billionaire !

FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Are our allies ready to send us help similar to a Marshall plan (or rather 10 of them) to weather this ?


The US national debt is something like 30 Trillion USD. That's 125% of the US GDP.


1 trillion would go a long way and wouldn't put much of a dent in that, it would also probably be used in part to buy US oil and gas (and probably military hardware), however I'm not seeing indications this is planned.

And keep in mind only a couple years ago, there were US sanctions on the EU, and retaliatory EU sanctions...
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 2:57 pm

Medbedev treatens to nationalise foreign companies land / assets in Russia

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/truer- ... r/75476201
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:09 pm

Regarding trading with russia: I fully agree with your critical Assessment but dont forget we had a million russian troops on german soll till 1994.

We always had a fundamental interest in peace in Europe and the Assessment that this can only be done with russia is correct.

Nevertheless obviously good Intentions in the last 30 years did not lead to a good result.

But that we as Germans have a restictive view on Military force is not bad in itself. We must however use our full economic force now.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:09 pm

Aesma wrote:

1 trillion would go a long way and wouldn't put much of a dent in that, it would also probably be used in part to buy US oil and gas (and probably military hardware), however I'm not seeing indications this is planned.

And keep in mind only a couple years ago, there were US sanctions on the EU, and retaliatory EU sanctions...


Honestly, from my vantage point I can't see the political will to do this in the US. This is precisely the problem that Gates and then Trump warned about repeatedly, to the point of uncomfortable frankness that I believe caused the French and Germans to emotionally counter-react (and the Balts and many in Eastern Europe to silently nod.)

I can make the argument that control of the Ukraine, be it Russian or Ukrainian, doesn't change many of the fundamental security calculations of the US. These are more properly critical European security issues, and ideally the US would support those as many of goals diplomatically and economically are congruent. Often, the situation defaults to de facto US leadership due to the variety of factors and national goals of various European partners.

To a large number of Americans, this looks like Euros attempting a lateral pass of responsibility to us, and depending on US money and US lives for their critical defense requirements. This, at a time of high inflation in the US, along calls from the left for increased social spending and on the right for more selective defense engagement and across the board spending cuts to keep from going off the financial cliff.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:18 pm

Germany is finally going to do something. 400 RPGs thru a 3rd country
"Germany is in the process of approving delivery of 400 RPGs to Ukraine via a third country, an EU diplomat says"

Nexta also says "A Russian warship in the Black Sea shot down a Russian warplane with friendly fire."
Does anyone know what warplane was that?

Polish President, who I do not agree often with, has demanded for Ukraine to be put on an EXPRESS Path to the EU.

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
Last edited by SRQLOT on Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:20 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:

1 trillion would go a long way and wouldn't put much of a dent in that, it would also probably be used in part to buy US oil and gas (and probably military hardware), however I'm not seeing indications this is planned.

And keep in mind only a couple years ago, there were US sanctions on the EU, and retaliatory EU sanctions...


Honestly, from my vantage point I can't see the political will to do this in the US. This is precisely the problem that Gates and then Trump warned about repeatedly, to the point of uncomfortable frankness that I believe caused the French and Germans to emotionally counter-react (and the Balts and many in Eastern Europe to silently nod.)

I can make the argument that control of the Ukraine, be it Russian or Ukrainian, doesn't change many of the fundamental security calculations of the US. These are more properly critical European security issues, and ideally the US would support those as many of goals diplomatically and economically are congruent. Often, the situation defaults to de facto US leadership due to the variety of factors and national goals of various European partners.

To a large number of Americans, this looks like Euros attempting a lateral pass of responsibility to us, and depending on US money and US lives for their critical defense requirements. This, at a time of high inflation in the US, along calls from the left for increased social spending and on the right for more selective defense engagement and across the board spending cuts to keep from going off the financial cliff.

Europe (other than Poland among a few helping), needs to do their share. We support Ukraine, but Europe must step up. In particular Germany, Italy, and France.

Apparently, being a "priority partner" of the EU doesn't mean anything:
https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/hea ... overeignty.

Lightsaber

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