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Pi7472000
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:30 pm

How is Finland responding to Russia? Do they support Ukraine? They seem to be in a tough position as Russia has a lot of control over them.
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:39 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Medbedev treatens to nationalise foreign companies land / assets in Russia

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/truer- ... r/75476201


Maybe the UK/EU should do the same and use the funds/property to house the Ukranian refugees .
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:45 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


He leveled Chechnya and now the Chechen leadership are some of Putin's strongest domestic allies.
There's a big difference between "leadership" and "people".
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


I think his goal is to decapitate the elected leadership, replace Zelensky with a more compliant figure, and effectively turn Ukraine into Belarus Mk II. In that context, he’s seen Belarus succeed at stamping out domestic opposition, so he doesn’t require popular support. Level a mostly empty town “pour decourager les autres” etc. At least that’s what I think his strategy is.

Is it a good idea? Probably not. One of the more noteworthy revelations here is the emergence of a very resilient Ukrainian identity - one that won’t disappear into the night without a fight. Whether it’s Zelensky staring down the barrel of a gun, unflinching, or the 13 border guys telling a Russian ship to go $&@$ themselves under threat of annihilation… it’s a lot more than most of us expected.

The problem for Putin is that the longer this goes on - the longer Zelensky shames the rest of the world into acting - the longer Ukrainian acts of defiance go viral, he loses political ground. The Indias and Chinas of this world are ultra-soverignists. One is sitting next to two nuclear powers with territorial claims, the other bristles at criticism of what it considers domestic policy. They can only sit on the fence for so long before they get upended. There’s approximately 15,000 Indian citizens in Ukraine, probably a few thousand Chinese too. If they get caught up in this… there’s a domestic angle that becomes trickier.

While no one has acquitted themselves well, I think he realizes that his gains diminish everytime Zelensky pops up in Kiev - or everytime we see a teary father parting with his toddler - or everytime Ukrainian troops go down in a blaze of defiant glory.

That will lead to desperation, and desperation can lead to desperate measures.

Therefore my guess is that if he goes down this route, he’ll level some small town, mostly empty but for some holdouts, just to make a point.

Everyday that Ukraine holds out, he loses a little. Problem is, we don’t seem to realize that because we all recognize we really should be doing more, and Zelensky and Ukraine hit that shame nerve.
Last edited by ElPistolero on Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
Aesma wrote:

1 trillion would go a long way and wouldn't put much of a dent in that, it would also probably be used in part to buy US oil and gas (and probably military hardware), however I'm not seeing indications this is planned.

And keep in mind only a couple years ago, there were US sanctions on the EU, and retaliatory EU sanctions...


Honestly, from my vantage point I can't see the political will to do this in the US. This is precisely the problem that Gates and then Trump warned about repeatedly, to the point of uncomfortable frankness that I believe caused the French and Germans to emotionally counter-react (and the Balts and many in Eastern Europe to silently nod.)

I can make the argument that control of the Ukraine, be it Russian or Ukrainian, doesn't change many of the fundamental security calculations of the US. These are more properly critical European security issues, and ideally the US would support those as many of goals diplomatically and economically are congruent. Often, the situation defaults to de facto US leadership due to the variety of factors and national goals of various European partners.

To a large number of Americans, this looks like Euros attempting a lateral pass of responsibility to us, and depending on US money and US lives for their critical defense requirements. This, at a time of high inflation in the US, along calls from the left for increased social spending and on the right for more selective defense engagement and across the board spending cuts to keep from going off the financial cliff.

Europe (other than Poland among a few helping), needs to do their share. We support Ukraine, but Europe must step up. In particular Germany, Italy, and France.

Apparently, being a "priority partner" of the EU doesn't mean anything:
https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/hea ... overeignty.

Lightsaber



I think everyone is stepping up. I do agree that some of the Euro countries got a little lax about what the real threat was. I think most assumed that Russia would become more "Capitalist" oriented, instead of reverting to Nationalist Authoritarianism again. The current resolves on sanctions and swift payments are going to go along way in that area.
A lot needs to still be done to win over China though.
That is where it will really hurt Russia

https://www.statista.com/statistics/100 ... -partners/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... statistics
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:46 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:

They intend to capture Kiev, but then not occupy it permanently. Once captured and the Ukrainian government flees, probably to Lviv, Putin calls a ceasefire. This will also be used as a bargaining chip to restore Swift. Then calls for negotiations to give Kiev back to Ukraine but keep the Black Sea ports and some land to the East. Guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO or allows NATO forces in the country. This is the short term goal.

Long term goal will be ensure Ukraine’s government becomes Moscow friendly.
yeah, make Ukraine a landlocked breadbasket for Russia that they can starve whenever they want. That's not going to work.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:50 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
So is it about to escalate to a nuclear war??

Russia is claiming that Ukraine is about to drop a dirty bomb on the Russian territory!!! putin must be annoyed that the conventional war is not going his way so next step is nuclear?

“ Russian propaganda has gone off the rails and speculates Ukraine might be preparing to drop a ‘dirty bomb’ on the Russian territory. This is a sick fake. Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons, doesn’t conduct any work to create/acquire them. We are a responsible member of the NPT.” DmytroKuleba

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4


Probably laying the ground for a more “total war” approach. A “War crime” like dirty bomb makes it easier to justify levelling cities with high civilian casualties. I don’t think anyone was expecting such firm resistance and resilience, and the longer it goes on, the more difficult it becomes to sustain under international and domestic pressure.

At which point going more indiscriminate (but not nuclear) might become attractive.


Soviet and Russian doctrine has normalized nuclear weapons use for decades. But yes, I could easily see the Russians creating a false provocation with a dirty bomb to threaten nuclear use.



There is nothing a nuclear weapon can do here that a thermobaric bomb can’t.

Other than irradiate everything and anger literally every country on the planet.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:50 pm

OA260 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Medbedev treatens to nationalise foreign companies land / assets in Russia

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/truer- ... r/75476201


Maybe the UK/EU should do the same and use the funds/property to house the Ukranian refugees .


I think it may be some time before any western company has enough trust in Russia again to want to do too much business. Let them carry out their threats and the west do the same. Sure it would be better for a world economy for all to get along, but that's clearly not in Putin's plan.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:00 pm

This is a warning for other countries that if Putin starts massing troops on the border, he's not bluffing. The question is--would it take massed troops to invade the Baltics? Their populations and land mass are much smaller.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Europe (other than Poland among a few helping), needs to do their share. We support Ukraine, but Europe must step up. In particular Germany, Italy, and France.

Apparently, being a "priority partner" of the EU doesn't mean anything:
https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/hea ... overeignty.

Lightsaber


Being an “ally” of the US didn’t mean much between 2016-2020 (all kinds of economic warfare), and might mean even less after 2024.

Love it or hate it, the great power rivalry here is between the US and Russia, not Russia and the EU. The Chinese and Indians don’t see this as a setback for the EU, as much as they see it as a decline in US power or interest.

When the dust settles, France/Germany/Italy are going to have to deal with Russia as a neighbour, while US domestic culture wars on transgenderism and race etc may result in Administrations that ignore/repudiate their “Allies”.

We’ve all seen it happen - and we’re feeling it’s effects today. The timing isn’t coincidental. If you’re going to heap criticism on others, it would behoove you to recognize the hypocrisy of your stance. “My country first” nationalism will lead to this outcome 9 times out of 10.

If the US has no reason to put boots on the ground, neither do these countries. That’s the only thing that can move the dial now. The rest of it - sanctions etc - aren’t going to have any bearing on whether or not Ukraine survives.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:15 pm

johns624 wrote:
This is a warning for other countries that if Putin starts massing troops on the border, he's not bluffing. The question is--would it take massed troops to invade the Baltics? Their populations and land mass are much smaller.


A blitz only works so well, and stories currently out show that the Russians are hitting logistics issues.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 23848.html

“Russian forces are bypassing major Ukrainian population centres while leaving forces to encircle and isolate them. Overnight clashes in Kyiv are likely to have involved limited numbers of pre-positioned Russian groups. The capture of Kyiv remains Russia's primary military objective.”


I have seen reports elsewhere that they are running out of gas for tanks as they are so hell bent on getting to Kyiv, that they leave all their flanks exposed.
 
johns624
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:21 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Love it or hate it, the great power rivalry here is between the US and Russia, not Russia and the EU. The Chinese and Indians don’t see this as a setback for the EU, as much as they see it as a decline in US power or interest.

When the dust settles, France/Germany/Italy are going to have to deal with Russia as a neighbour, while US domestic culture wars on transgenderism and race etc may result in Administrations that ignore/repudiate their “Allies”.

We’ve all seen it happen - and we’re feeling it’s effects today. The timing isn’t coincidental. If you’re going to heap criticism on others, it would behoove you to recognize the hypocrisy of your stance. “My country first” nationalism will lead to this outcome 9 times out of 10.

If the US has no reason to put boots on the ground, neither do these countries. That’s the only thing that can move the dial now. The rest of it - sanctions etc - aren’t going to have any bearing on whether or not Ukraine survives.

Wrong on so many counts.
1. To exclude/excuse the EU in this is nonsensical. It is their economic energy dependence on Russia that was a major cause of this. Remember a certain pipeline through Ukrainian territory?
2. India has made a major pastime or playing the East vs the West for their benefit.
3. China sees it as getting benefit for themselves from Russia. They'll buy Russian resources, but at very favorable prices.
3. Why should the US put "boots on the ground" when countries who this affects much more won't follow. Germany has to be forced into just putting economic measures into place. It's one thing if you're forced to buy energy from Russia but quite another if you close down your own production facilities.
4. Why does the US always have to be the lead? There are other countries who this affects much more. We can be the big backer but others need to step forward, first. A German poster earlier quoted a retired German general saying that their army can't even guarantee their own territorial integrity. Maybe that's why we won't go first. We won't have sufficient backing.
5. You're right...Germany, France and Italy will have to deal with Russia as a neighbor in the future...a larger, stronger, more belligerent neighbor.
Last edited by johns624 on Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
johns624 wrote:
This is a warning for other countries that if Putin starts massing troops on the border, he's not bluffing. The question is--would it take massed troops to invade the Baltics? Their populations and land mass are much smaller.


A blitz only works so well, and stories currently out show that the Russians are hitting logistics issues.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 23848.html

“Russian forces are bypassing major Ukrainian population centres while leaving forces to encircle and isolate them. Overnight clashes in Kyiv are likely to have involved limited numbers of pre-positioned Russian groups. The capture of Kyiv remains Russia's primary military objective.”


I have seen reports elsewhere that they are running out of gas for tanks as they are so hell bent on getting to Kyiv, that they leave all their flanks exposed.
Bypassing centers of resistance is actually a smart thing to do. Leaving flanks exposed is also an acceptable tactic, depending on the circumstances. Them concentrating on Kiev may be the wrong thing to do. Just like Hitler concentrated on Moscow instead of the oilfields.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:30 pm

Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598
 
stratable
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
stratable wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Does business or principles win out? Only excluding Russia from SWIFT is meaningful. It stops all large scale trade. It prevents funneling money to shell companies (which is undoubtedly happening).

It isn't a last resort. There has been $700 million in trade with Russia since the invasion started. That is simply wrong.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/202 ... utType=amp

This will, in my opinion, embolden Putkin to go for the Baltic Republics.

I haven't heard of any significant European troop movements to protect their allies.

This is Sedatenland and Poland combined.

If there is no penalty, there is no reason to stop.

Either hurt Russia or stop pretending with sanctions that are too minor to matter.

SWIFT isn't enough, at least it will sting.

It is time to close off the Baltic Sea and Black Sea too.

Lightsaber


I personally don't have an issue with cutting them off SWIFT.

For Russia, going into the Baltics means attacking NATO troops.
I would assume that closing off the Baltic Sea and Black Sea will be interpreted as a declaration of war.

European troops are all over Eastern Europe.
Germany for example is moving additional troops and artillery into the Baltics, and has Typhoons and A400s in the air over Romania protecting NATO airspace.

All sources in German:
https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/02/bundeswehr-verstaerkung-an-der-nato-ostflanke-weitere-eurofighter-transportflugzeug-bleibt-im-dienst/
https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/ukraine-konflikt-verteidigungsministerium-loest-nationale-alarmmassnahmen-aus,SyNNjnA


Here is a video German news report on German Eurofighters in Romania:[/url]
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/ts24/schwerpunkt/video-992789.html

German Navy is moving additional resources into the Baltic Sea:
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/niedersachsen/Marine-schickt-Korvette-zur-Staerkung-der-NATO-Ostflanke,ukraine1494.html
https://www.moin.de/norddeutschland/ostsee-marine-ukraine-konflikt-militaer-nato-id234667703.html

How many tens of thousands of troops?


Just over 1,000 right now with 14,000 on stand by. Germany is also moving Patriot air defense systems into the Baltics.
This is about walking a fine line. Russia is looking closely at what France and Germany are doing as they are the two largest powers in Europe.
Everyone in Europe is grateful that the Americans, Canadians, etc. are there. But just throwing more troops at this does nothing to ease Russia's anxiety about NATO, which is quite real.
Obviously, Germany much like every European nation will defend NATO territory. But it is about walking a fine line here and understanding the Russian position in this.
This doesn't mean agreeing with the Russians but at least listening and not just throwing more troops at this.
As I said earlier, I think the plan is to show the Russians where the limits are without pushing them to the brink of desperation. Especially as Putin seems more volatile than in previous years.
Last edited by stratable on Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
stratable
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:35 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598


This would be big news. Russia being even more isolated.
Turkey currently denying it, say they're still evaluating.

Source again in German at 17:21: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/17-32-Bunde ... 43824.html
Last edited by stratable on Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:36 pm

stratable wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598


This would be big news. Russia being even more isolated.


It was reported a couple of hours ago in the other thread.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:39 pm

johns624 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
johns624 wrote:
This is a warning for other countries that if Putin starts massing troops on the border, he's not bluffing. The question is--would it take massed troops to invade the Baltics? Their populations and land mass are much smaller.


A blitz only works so well, and stories currently out show that the Russians are hitting logistics issues.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 23848.html

“Russian forces are bypassing major Ukrainian population centres while leaving forces to encircle and isolate them. Overnight clashes in Kyiv are likely to have involved limited numbers of pre-positioned Russian groups. The capture of Kyiv remains Russia's primary military objective.”


I have seen reports elsewhere that they are running out of gas for tanks as they are so hell bent on getting to Kyiv, that they leave all their flanks exposed.
Bypassing centers of resistance is actually a smart thing to do. Leaving flanks exposed is also an acceptable tactic, depending on the circumstances. Them concentrating on Kiev may be the wrong thing to do. Just like Hitler concentrated on Moscow instead of the oilfields.



I get it. You blitz in take over the "Government" with a stab to the heart, and things go easy. However, they are facing more resistance, and i think their attack on the apartment buildings really did not do great things for their PR as well. We will have to see how the next 24-48 hours play out.
 
johns624
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:45 pm

stratable wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
stratable wrote:

I personally don't have an issue with cutting them off SWIFT.

For Russia, going into the Baltics means attacking NATO troops.
I would assume that closing off the Baltic Sea and Black Sea will be interpreted as a declaration of war.

European troops are all over Eastern Europe.
Germany for example is moving additional troops and artillery into the Baltics, and has Typhoons and A400s in the air over Romania protecting NATO airspace.

All sources in German:
https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/02/bundeswehr-verstaerkung-an-der-nato-ostflanke-weitere-eurofighter-transportflugzeug-bleibt-im-dienst/
https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/ukraine-konflikt-verteidigungsministerium-loest-nationale-alarmmassnahmen-aus,SyNNjnA


Here is a video German news report on German Eurofighters in Romania:[/url]
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/ts24/schwerpunkt/video-992789.html

German Navy is moving additional resources into the Baltic Sea:
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/niedersachsen/Marine-schickt-Korvette-zur-Staerkung-der-NATO-Ostflanke,ukraine1494.html
https://www.moin.de/norddeutschland/ostsee-marine-ukraine-konflikt-militaer-nato-id234667703.html

How many tens of thousands of troops?


Just over 1,000 right now with 14,000 on stand by. Germany is also moving Patriot air defense systems into the Baltics.
This is about walking a fine line. Russia is looking closely at what France and Germany are doing as they are the two largest powers in Europe.
Everyone in Europe is grateful that the Americans, Canadians, etc. are there. But just throwing more troops at this does nothing to ease Russia's anxiety about NATO, which is quite real.
Obviously, Germany much like every European nation will defend NATO territory. But it is about walking a fine line here and understanding the Russian position in this.
This doesn't mean agreeing with the Russians but at least listening and not just throwing more troops at this.
As I said earlier, I think the plan is to show the Russians where the limits are without pushing them to the brink of desperation. Especially as Putin seems more volatile than in previous years.

1. I believe you missed lightsaber's sarcasm. Read his question again.
2. You sure do seem awfully concerned with Putin's feelings.
3. I'd put the UK ahead of Germany and probably France also.
4. A country saying they will defend NATO territory and having a robust enough military to make it successful are two different things.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:46 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
How is Finland responding to Russia? Do they support Ukraine? They seem to be in a tough position as Russia has a lot of control over them.


Russia has no control over Finland.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:54 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
How is Finland responding to Russia? Do they support Ukraine? They seem to be in a tough position as Russia has a lot of control over them.


Russia has no control over Finland.
They have a long border.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:55 pm

johns624 wrote:
Wrong on so many counts.
1. To exclude/excuse the EU in this is nonsensical. It is their economic energy dependence on Russia that was a major cause of this. Remember a certain pipeline through Ukrainian territory?
2. India has made a major pastime or playing the East vs the West for their benefit.
3. China sees it as getting benefit for themselves from Russia. They'll buy Russian resources, but at very favorable prices.
3. Why should the US put "boots on the ground" when countries who this affects much more won't follow. Germany has to be forced into just putting economic measures into place. It's one thing if you're forced to buy energy from Russia but quite another if you close down your own production facilities.
4. Why does the US always have to be the lead? There are other countries who this affects much more. We can be the big backer but others need to step forward, first. A German poster earlier quoted a retired German general saying that their army can't even guarantee their own territorial integrity. Maybe that's why we won't go first. We won't have sufficient backing.
5. You're right...Germany, France and Italy will have to deal with Russia as a neighbor in the future...a larger, stronger, more belligerent neighbor.


Fun post - starts by telling me I’m wrong, but ends up agreeing with the crux of the argument.

- Yes, the EU is dependent on Russian energy. What are its alternatives? Nuclear power? Will take a long time. Should note that one of the biggest economic sticks it carries is: cancelling Nordstream 2. Surely the irony isn’t lost here.

- China and India have never viewed NATO as anything other than the US. Look at their narrative on Afghanistan. France and the UK and the rest of NATO? Unable to operate without the US.

- I didn’t say anyone has to put boots on the ground. The reality is that no one wants to, and fiddling with economic measures - including SWIFT - isn’t going to move the dial. Do you think cancelling access to SWIFT will result in a swift Russian retreat? Far more likely western banks will be hit by cyber attacks and thefts they’re ill-equipped to handle.

- As an aside, I don’t care whose boots are on the ground - only the deterrent effect they’ll have. We have all failed on that front. The “west” has failed. We need to ask ourselves how we got here. And the honest truth is that we can’t divorce the fractures in the “my country first” philosophies thats been defining national interests very, very narrowly (witness Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham and their ilk).

- So yes, these countries will have to do business with a larger, more belligerent, likely hostile neighbour when the dust settles. And they’ll have to do it without knowing which version of the US is going to show up in 2 years - the one that treats them as Allies, or the one that praises Putin and engages in economic battles with them.

That is a function of western cohesion coming under duress. The timing was not coincidental.
 
leader1
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:56 pm

stratable wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598


This would be big news. Russia being even more isolated.
Turkey currently denying it, say they're still evaluating.

Source again in German at 17:21: https://www.n-tv.de/politik/17-32-Bunde ... 43824.html


As much as I would like for this to be true, Turkey is denying it. They they did not approve the request.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russ ... n-warships

Besides, Turkey says that a blockade couldn’t prevent Russian ships from passing through.

Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu earlier this week said that Russia would still be able to send its ships through the straits even Turkey closes them.

"Under Montreux Convention on straits, Russia has a right to return its ships to its ports in Black Sea," Cavusoglu said in a TV interview. "Even in the wartime, Russia has a right to do it."
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:58 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
stratable wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598


This would be big news. Russia being even more isolated.


It was reported a couple of hours ago in the other thread.


I was delighted when it was announced but it seems to be incorrect. Also it has been mentioned that it might not be possible due to conventions but then again anything is up for change in this climate .
 
doug_or
Posts: 3250
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2000 9:55 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:59 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598


That's Zelensky, not Erdogan. Haven't seen any Turkish sources supporting this claim, only denying it.
 
stratable
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:02 pm

johns624 wrote:
stratable wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How many tens of thousands of troops?


Just over 1,000 right now with 14,000 on stand by. Germany is also moving Patriot air defense systems into the Baltics.
This is about walking a fine line. Russia is looking closely at what France and Germany are doing as they are the two largest powers in Europe.
Everyone in Europe is grateful that the Americans, Canadians, etc. are there. But just throwing more troops at this does nothing to ease Russia's anxiety about NATO, which is quite real.
Obviously, Germany much like every European nation will defend NATO territory. But it is about walking a fine line here and understanding the Russian position in this.
This doesn't mean agreeing with the Russians but at least listening and not just throwing more troops at this.
As I said earlier, I think the plan is to show the Russians where the limits are without pushing them to the brink of desperation. Especially as Putin seems more volatile than in previous years.

1. I believe you missed lightsaber's sarcasm. Read his question again.
2. You sure do seem awfully concerned with Putin's feelings.
3. I'd put the UK ahead of Germany and probably France also.
4. A country saying they will defend NATO territory and having a robust enough military to make it successful are two different things.



I am just trying to point out the facts.

I don't care what Putin thinks or feels but everyone should consider it since he is the one who is attacking Ukraine and who has nuclear weapons.

The UK is so closely aligned with the US, for Russia they are pretty much one and the same in this case. The UK also is not a continental European country, and
its economy is significantly smaller than Germany's and roughly on par with France.

We have argued about this before, and I agree with you. Germany needs to up defense spending just like everyone else in Europe.
Last edited by stratable on Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
stratable
Posts: 196
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:22 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:06 pm

Germany have agreed to Russian SWIFT expulsion. Attempting to work out measures in a way that they only target the "right people".

Source in German: https://www.n-tv.de/newsletter/breaking ... 58259.html
 
johns624
Posts: 5964
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:13 pm

ElPistolero wrote:

France and the UK and the rest of NATO? Unable to operate without the US.

That's the problem right there. The EU members of NATO have almost double the population and 10 times the GNP of Russia, yet Russia isn't impressed by them. I wonder why?
 
GDB
Posts: 16256
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:21 pm

Despite the aid in advice since 2015 and hardware this year, don't for one moment think that the UK government has remotely clean hands;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -donations

And neither has the west, including the US really;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ia-ukraine

(And the above did not even bother to mention Putin cheerleaders like Trump, Bannon, Carlson and a fair chunk of the GOP, plus our very own, this week as CPAC in Florida, Nigel Fartarse).
 
M564038
Posts: 1200
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:32 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
..

Love it or hate it, the great power rivalry here is between the US and Russia, not Russia and the EU.


Another one that thinks Russia = The USSR of 80s thriller movies.

The EU dwarfs russia in population, economy and millitary force.
Last edited by M564038 on Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 886
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:35 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Big diplomatic news

Erdogan has announced Turkey will not allow Russian warships through the Bosphorus Straits,

Russia’s plan to occupy the Black Sea coast may be defeated:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/ ... 8897774598



Well considering they keep blowing up civilian ships. Seriously
 
johns624
Posts: 5964
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:43 pm

M564038 wrote:


The EU dwarfs russia in population, economy and millitary force.
I'll give them 2 out of 3.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 3044
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Updated: Russia invasion of Ukraine begun

Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:53 pm

M564038 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
..

Love it or hate it, the great power rivalry here is between the US and Russia, not Russia and the EU.


Another one that thinks Russia = The USSR of 80s thriller movies.

The EU dwarfs russia in population, economy and millitary force.


johns624 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:

France and the UK and the rest of NATO? Unable to operate without the US.

That's the problem right there. The EU members of NATO have almost double the population and 10 times the GNP of Russia, yet Russia isn't impressed by them. I wonder why?


Nope. Just another one who thinks EU nations appetite for body bags is so low, they’ll do anything to avoid getting caught in a Russian style war of attrition.

No illusions about where the wealth is. Only that they’re more likely to use it to ignore or pay off an adversary than fight, unless the threat is existential. Which is really no different from most western countries. Even the US. Everyone is sitting this one out. There’s no public pressure either - just a lot of hmmm-ing and haw-ing.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 4110
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:17 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But Putin's goal is to somehow govern Ukraine. Levelling cities isn't going to win him any favor. Killing millions will only make him millions more of mortal enemies. Ukraine isn't Chechnya which has just over 1 million people.


Ukraine has 44 million people, most of them now firmly anti-Russian. Russia has never occupied even close to a large population, South Ossetia, Chechnya, Donbas only have a fraction of that population. Occupying it will require 1-2 million Russian troops in country, all their active duty personnel and half the reserves. And no doubt a low level insurgency supported by the West.

My thought is -

Russia wants control of the east, maybe Kharkiv. They also want control of Mariupol and maybe Odessa, for full Black Sea north coast control and the Sea of Azov.

They intend to capture Kiev, but then not occupy it permanently. Once captured and the Ukrainian government flees, probably to Lviv, Putin calls a ceasefire. This will also be used as a bargaining chip to restore Swift. Then calls for negotiations to give Kiev back to Ukraine but keep the Black Sea ports and some land to the East. Guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO or allows NATO forces in the country. This is the short term goal.

Long term goal will be ensure Ukraine’s government becomes Moscow friendly.


Interesting end game. Putin has been too "quiet" war tactics wise. I expect him to open up the "playbook" soon, and that is not good news when it comes to causalities.
 
TheSonntag
Posts: 4724
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:23 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:29 pm

Germany has now stopped blocking Dutch deliveries of 400 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs and Estonian Howitzers and will provide 1000 RPGs from German Arsenals and 500 Stingers.

I just wondered how we will get it there. So maybe time to stop Germany Bashing now. After all Germany is the stability anchor in Europe for 70 years now.

Edit: German Source, Reliable:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/bundesre ... a181cf3ce1
 
GDB
Posts: 16256
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:50 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Germany has now stopped blocking Dutch deliveries of 400 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs and Estonian Howitzers and will provide 1000 RPGs from German Arsenals and 500 Stingers.

I just wondered how we will get it there. So maybe time to stop Germany Bashing now. After all Germany is the stability anchor in Europe for 70 years now.

Edit: German Source, Reliable:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/bundesre ... a181cf3ce1


Most likely via Poland, that's where much of the NATO supplies seem to be going.

Edit; Further confirmation, UK will aid in delivery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwYhSSehvSA
 
User avatar
alberchico
Topic Author
Posts: 3713
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:52 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:02 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/ ... 3702175746

I really afraid how Putin might react if his forces get bogged down even more. He is not the type of person to admit defeat and walk away. The gloves might really come off and tens of thousands of civilians might die. As I said before, some major concession ahould be offered by Ukraine at this point.
Last edited by alberchico on Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kelval
Posts: 151
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:09 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:03 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Germany has now stopped blocking Dutch deliveries of 400 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs and Estonian Howitzers and will provide 1000 RPGs from German Arsenals and 500 Stingers.

I just wondered how we will get it there. So maybe time to stop Germany Bashing now. After all Germany is the stability anchor in Europe for 70 years now.

Edit: German Source, Reliable:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/bundesre ... a181cf3ce1


Still very late, it will be much harder to bring those supplies to the front without being bombed or shot down now.
But that much can be said from all the European help (I'm french btw, and don't have the feeling that we did any better than our euro colleagues).
France promised 300 millions of euros of help and to supply "defensive weapons" on the 25th of February. Very vague, but it is what it is. ( source in french: https://www.linternaute.com/actualite/m ... s-soldats/).
 
User avatar
OA260
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Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:07 pm

Is there any reason why Germany is still allowing Aeroflot and other Russian airlines to use its airports and airspace ?
 
johns624
Posts: 5964
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:10 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Germany has now stopped blocking Dutch deliveries of 400 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs and Estonian Howitzers and will provide 1000 RPGs from German Arsenals and 500 Stingers.

I just wondered how we will get it there. So maybe time to stop Germany Bashing now. After all Germany is the stability anchor in Europe for 70 years now.

Edit: German Source, Reliable:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/bundesre ... a181cf3ce1
Kinda late for that, isn't it? As far as Germany being the stability anchor for 70 years, that's a laugh. Those howitzers would've done a lot more good a month ago. You still have to deliver them, get them to the proper units and make sure your logistics can supply them.
 
johns624
Posts: 5964
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:11 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1497560183702175746

I really afraid how Putin might react if his forces get bogged down even more. He is not the type of person to admit defeat and walk away. The gloves might really come off and tens of thousands of civilians might die. As I said before, some major concession ahould be offered by Ukraine at this point.
What is left to concede? Do you want them just to surrender? Some people think there are certain things worth fighting for.
Shouldn't Putin be the one to concede? Somebody breaks into your house, do you concede the living room, kitchen and daughter, just to keep your bedroom and your wife?
Last edited by johns624 on Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 320
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:14 pm

johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Is there any reason why Germany is still allowing Aeroflot and other Russian airlines to use its airports and airspace ?
We all know the unspoken reason...

Germany's politicians are on Putin's leash or because they idiotically decided to shut down nuclear power and now need Russian energy.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 320
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:15 pm

johns624 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1497560183702175746

I really afraid how Putin might react if his forces get bogged down even more. He is not the type of person to admit defeat and walk away. The gloves might really come off and tens of thousands of civilians might die. As I said before, some major concession ahould be offered by Ukraine at this point.
What is left to concede? Do you want them just to surrender? Some people think there are certain things worth fighting for.

I'm sure many would prefer death than to be back under the Soviet Union. I applaud their bravery to fight against Putin's conscripted goons.
 
lentokone
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 1:20 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:22 pm

Pi7472000 wrote:
How is Finland responding to Russia? Do they support Ukraine? They seem to be in a tough position as Russia has a lot of control over them.


Yes, Finland, together with other EU Member States, supports Ukraine.

Finnish Government's press release from the European Council's meeting on Feb 24th

Our Prime Minister's comment on Ukraine (from the press release):
“We strongly condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people. Together with our closest allies, we support Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia’s ruthless attack on Ukraine is also an attack on the entire international rules-based security order, and we will respond strongly to Russia’s actions. We are prepared to discuss further sanctions in addition to the sanctions decided today”,

I wouldn't think that Russia has any particular control over Finland, at least not for the past three decades. Of course, Finland still has to deal with Russia as we have more than thousand kilometres of common borderline. But that does not mean that Finland would let Russia dictate our policies.
 
TheSonntag
Posts: 4724
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:28 pm

masonh2479 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Is there any reason why Germany is still allowing Aeroflot and other Russian airlines to use its airports and airspace ?
We all know the unspoken reason...

Germany's politicians are on Putin's leash or because they idiotically decided to shut down nuclear power and now need Russian energy.


Utter b/s. BTW, the US are the biggest importer for russian oil. Has this also been stopped? Germany has stopped NS2, is now backing Swift and is now delivering arms. In fact we do have a strategy to get 100% sustainable. In 15 years we do not need his gas anymore. Electricity is no issue for us, so removing nuclear plants is utterly irrelevant for our needs for gas.

That does not mean that I fully agree on our policies, the contrary is the case. But at least we have a plan to get independant and sustainable - something yet to be seen in Poland and France (Uranium does not last forever either, and I would hardly call 40+ years old nuclear power plants a sustainable idea).

But this really gets off topic. What I expect and demand from germany:

1. Get the Bundeswehr funded to become a player that is able to defend Europe, together with our partners.
2. Get away from gas by modernising our country faster (PV on every roof, more isolation, more heat pumps).
3. Finally develop a strategy to unite Europe with a comprehensive security strategy together with France.

Maybe the whole West needs to reevaluate the economic cooperation. Brexit was partly caused by russian disinformation. Maybe it is time to get more comprehensive trade agreements with US, UK, Australia, Japan and the EU.
 
af773atmsp
Posts: 2586
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:37 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:35 pm

Last I checked Russian troops have taken control of Chernobyl. If this is still the case, would they be crazy enough to threaten damaging the sarcophagus if Ukrainian troops don't surrender?
 
masonh2479
Posts: 320
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:38 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
masonh2479 wrote:
johns624 wrote:
We all know the unspoken reason...

Germany's politicians are on Putin's leash or because they idiotically decided to shut down nuclear power and now need Russian energy.


Utter b/s. BTW, the US are the biggest importer for russian oil. Has this also been stopped? Germany has stopped NS2, is now backing Swift and is now delivering arms. In fact we do have a strategy to get 100% sustainable. In 15 years we do not need his gas anymore. Electricity is no issue for us, so removing nuclear plants is utterly irrelevant for our needs for gas.

That does not mean that I fully agree on our policies, the contrary is the case. But at least we have a plan to get independant and sustainable - something yet to be seen in Poland and France (Uranium does not last forever either, and I would hardly call 40+ years old nuclear power plants a sustainable idea).

But this really gets off topic. What I expect and demand from germany:

1. Get the Bundeswehr funded to become a player that is able to defend Europe, together with our partners.
2. Get away from gas by modernising our country faster (PV on every roof, more isolation, more heat pumps).
3. Finally develop a strategy to unite Europe with a comprehensive security strategy together with France.

Maybe the whole West needs to reevaluate the economic cooperation. Brexit was partly caused by russian disinformation. Maybe it is time to get more comprehensive trade agreements with US, UK, Australia, Japan and the EU.

Sorry I didn't mean for my statement to come off as harsh as it did, I was trying to find out what the unspoken reason was. I agree with what you are saying though.
 
masonh2479
Posts: 320
Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:38 pm

af773atmsp wrote:
Last I checked Russian troops have taken control of Chernobyl. If this is still the case, would they be crazy enough to threaten damaging the sarcophagus if Ukrainian troops don't surrender?

Wouldn't be the worst thing the Russians/Soviets have done.
 
johns624
Posts: 5964
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:38 pm

Russians have been pushing boundaries/borders for over seven years and Europeans are just now talking about getting their military in order?
 
ltbewr
Posts: 16337
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:39 pm

While some sanctions as to trade, banking, financing trade and sovereign debt as well as Putin himself, other top Russian officials, some top oligarchs have been reported to have put into place, the trade in oil and natural gas from Russia and well as the SWIFT banking system is still going. I suspect not suspending SWIFT banking processing is the fear that it would anger many banks who make money from SWIFT processed transactions. Not cutting off oil and natural gas trade from Russia is due to the fear of driving up pricing to consumers and businesses on gasoline, diesel and natural gas which no government outside of Russia wants for obvious political and economic reasons.

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