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SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:08 pm

Scorpio wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
russian losses so far

Troops 4300
Tanks 146
Aircraft 27
Helicopters 36
Rocket Launcher 46
Armored Vehicles 706

12:11
Około 4 tys. 300 żołnierzy straciły siły rosyjskie od początku inwazji na Ukrainę — poinformowała w niedzielę wiceminister obrony Ukrainy Hanna Malar na Facebooku, dodając, że liczba ta jest weryfikowana. Według niej Rosja straciła także 146 czołgów, 27 samolotów, 36 śmigłowców, 46 wyrzutni i 706 wozów bojowych.”

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/sily-z ... wo/ztv0qk4

Let's be careful with reporting numbers like that. These are the numbers the Ukrainians claim. Those are just about as believable as the Russian claims they haven't lost a single soldier so far...



Ah sure. It’s all nice and rosy for the russians. They need to see their losses. Just by all the videos of destroyed russian tank columns and all their jets shot down I believe the Ukrainians over the claimed 0 losses the russians claim. So I will continue to do so.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:10 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So how do you get a single leader if they are not dictating policy?
Why can't you have leadership by committee, do you believe that all committee's are made up of those who only have their own self preservation at heart?
The history of the world has seen such, you yourself mentioned the Falklands, so......


My words were "a less dictatorial lead". I'm assuming that most adults on this forum are aware of the significant differences between a dictator and a leader that makes decisions based on the input of a number of members. Every successful business I've worked for has leaders like that. None of them I would label as dictators.

But you already knew that.

So ignoring the question, besides you are the one who used the word dictator, so maybe your point would have been better made if you said "Strong Leader"?
Just a thought
 
StdTank80002
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:10 pm

dc855 wrote:
Alfons wrote:
OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278

Russia: Vladimir Putin orders military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Probably scare tactics from a desperate dictator but worrying nonetheless .


More than probably, he's not a Hitler ready to die for a cause. He wants a ROI from this invasion, that can be consumed. But from today, he put fear onto all countries on this planet, not just Ukraine and the EU. Let's see how the East is going to react now.


Putin's problem is that he screwed up by seriously underestimating both the Ukrainians and the west's response. And his second problem is that he really has no off-ramp. A cornered bear is of course extremely dangerous.


I hope some of those countries more sympathetic will see this for what it is, madness.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:12 pm

par13del wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So how do you get a single leader if they are not dictating policy?
Why can't you have leadership by committee, do you believe that all committee's are made up of those who only have their own self preservation at heart?
The history of the world has seen such, you yourself mentioned the Falklands, so......


My words were "a less dictatorial lead". I'm assuming that most adults on this forum are aware of the significant differences between a dictator and a leader that makes decisions based on the input of a number of members. Every successful business I've worked for has leaders like that. None of them I would label as dictators.

But you already knew that.

So ignoring the question, besides you are the one who used the word dictator, so maybe your point would have been better made if you said "Strong Leader"?
Just a thought


Again, I used the word "dictatorial", not "dictator". There is a difference between the two, even if relatively subtle. I still feel you miss my point too as a strong leader, at least a great leader, is very seldom dictatorial.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:16 pm

OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278

Russia: Vladimir Putin orders military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Probably scare tactics from a desperate dictator but worrying nonetheless .


It’s either a bluff or his crazy just went off the scale.

I wonder how much further he can go before one of his generals decides enough is enough?
 
 
luckyone
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:29 pm

scbriml wrote:
OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278

Russia: Vladimir Putin orders military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Probably scare tactics from a desperate dictator but worrying nonetheless .


It’s either a bluff or his crazy just went off the scale.

I wonder how much further he can go before one of his generals decides enough is enough?

I don’t buy the crazy theory. Putin has been around for years and years. He didn’t come to power as a madman a la Hitler and right off the bat start deploying tanks. No, he’s been the boss for 20+ years. Something else is driving this. I wouldn’t portend to know precisely why or what, but rather like the Maoist Cultural Revolution, this is being driven by internal politics. Putin may be trying to pay off a powerful underling (here’s your port city!), or snuff one out.
 
Derico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278

Russia: Vladimir Putin orders military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Probably scare tactics from a desperate dictator but worrying nonetheless .


It’s either a bluff or his crazy just went off the scale.

I wonder how much further he can go before one of his generals decides enough is enough?


This is one thing I don't understand about nuclear weapons and their Chain of command.

Surely the normal procedure in ANY country is that no one man has the authority to give "the order". But I guess you also don't want TOO many people or it paralyzes response time. Since nuclear weapons have always been said to be for defensive purposes only (though clearly, actually from their debut on the battlefield, they were NOT used in that purporse).

But assuming the Russian command still believes that such a use of weaponry should only be considered when Moscow is threatened from an invading army, would anyone in Putin's circle seriously be on board for even going beyond "higher alert" status for what are just moderate economic sanctions. Surely, even if Putin may in fact be losing his mind (and all the evidence in the last few weeks indicates there may be something going on with him), that doesn't mean everyone else's mind around him is in pursuit. There is really no way for me to see how anyone would even entertain a discussion with him about "the order" when no foreign troops are invading Russia, much less is there an existential threat to the government or the people there.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:34 pm

Anders Åslund gives his opinion on whether or not China will help Russia.
Åslund has previously been an advisor to both Boris Yeltsin as well as the current president in Ukraine.

Don't fear that China will step in and support Russia significantly. When the US introduced financial sanctions against Russia in July 2014,
China's four big state banks reneged on vast $ loans Xi had promised Putin because they feared US sanctions. The West can isolate Putin.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/statu ... 4011626499
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:36 pm

luckyone wrote:
scbriml wrote:
OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278

Russia: Vladimir Putin orders military command to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Probably scare tactics from a desperate dictator but worrying nonetheless .


It’s either a bluff or his crazy just went off the scale.

I wonder how much further he can go before one of his generals decides enough is enough?

I don’t buy the crazy theory. Putin has been around for years and years. He didn’t come to power as a madman a la Hitler and right off the bat start deploying tanks. No, he’s been the boss for 20+ years. Something else is driving this. I wouldn’t portend to know precisely why or what, but rather like the Maoist Cultural Revolution, this is being driven by internal politics. Putin may be trying to pay off a powerful underling (here’s your port city!), or snuff one out.


There are reports that he's been increasingly isolated and paranoid especially during covid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... fears.html

20+ years of power is a remarkable achievement, but the dynamics of Russian politics probably mean he has ended up surrounded by yes-men and that the necessary checks and balances and plan challenging and review just aren't there. His rhetoric have been increasingly bold post-Crimea which very likely made him and his staff misread the response from Ukraine and the West.

As they say in investment, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:37 pm

The issue on nuclear weapon use in Ukraine is what is the "West" response to the alert and what would they do if actually used.
What Putin will do is what Putin will do, can his decision be influenced... .yes... question is how. He has gone public, the "West" can do the same or back channels telling him what....? Once deployed in Ukraine the weather will determine how soon and how much fall out goes to the rest of Europe, right now bordering countries can deny refugees, there is nothing they can do about fallout, so the stakes are much different.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:40 pm

There's a fantastic interview relevant to this topic going on with Mitt Romney on CNN right now.
 
luckyone
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:41 pm

JJJ wrote:
luckyone wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It’s either a bluff or his crazy just went off the scale.

I wonder how much further he can go before one of his generals decides enough is enough?

I don’t buy the crazy theory. Putin has been around for years and years. He didn’t come to power as a madman a la Hitler and right off the bat start deploying tanks. No, he’s been the boss for 20+ years. Something else is driving this. I wouldn’t portend to know precisely why or what, but rather like the Maoist Cultural Revolution, this is being driven by internal politics. Putin may be trying to pay off a powerful underling (here’s your port city!), or snuff one out.


There are reports that he's been increasingly isolated and paranoid especially during covid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... fears.html

20+ years of power is a remarkable achievement, but the dynamics of Russian politics probably mean he has ended up surrounded by yes-men and that the necessary checks and balances and plan challenging and review just aren't there. His rhetoric have been increasingly bold post-Crimea which very likely made him and his staff misread the response from Ukraine and the West.

As they say in investment, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

I won’t discount that out of hand, but I’d like to see more than a tweet from Marco Rubio and an article in the Daily Mail.
 
Derico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:41 pm

par13del wrote:
The issue on nuclear weapon use in Ukraine is what is the "West" response to the alert and what would they do if actually used.
What Putin will do is what Putin will do, can his decision be influenced... .yes... question is how. He has gone public, the "West" can do the same or back channels telling him what....? Once deployed in Ukraine the weather will determine who soon and how much fall out goes to the rest of Europe, right now bordering countries can deny refugees, there is nothing they can do about fallout, so the stakes are much different.


The West should put its forces on higher alert, I don't know if the nuclear ones, but whatever protocols can be elevated. At this point it's a bit of a blow for blow situation and you need to escalate to his level, at least for a while. So respond with higher military alertness, but then immediately invite their government to "talks" for a way to de-escalate. The G7 could agree to meet Russian officials in a neutral state. Qatar or something.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:43 pm

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status ... _&ref_url=

This is worrying. Putin is being increasingly being backed in a corner with no off-ramp. This is not going to end well. Maybe Ukraine should make some major concessions while their cities are mostly intact. The idea that Putin will get frustrated with the campaign and simply give up and order a full retreat is a pipe dream.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:50 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497706110152753168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497706110152753168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This is worrying. Putin is being increasingly being backed in a corner with no off-ramp. This is not going to end well. Maybe Ukraine should make some major concessions while their cities are mostly intact. The idea that Putin will get frustrated with the campaign and simply give up and order a full retreat is a pipe dream.


Best case scenario is some adult in Moscow takes over.

I know little about Shoygu, but I'd like to think he's not totally intimidated by Putin. The recent clip of Bortnikov stuttering when challenged by Putin probably says a lot about the qualities of those surrounding Putin at the moment.
 
luckyone
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:51 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497706110152753168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497706110152753168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This is worrying. Putin is being increasingly being backed in a corner with no off-ramp. This is not going to end well. Maybe Ukraine should make some major concessions while their cities are mostly intact. The idea that Putin will get frustrated with the campaign and simply give up and order a full retreat is a pipe dream.

Or enough people in the Kremlin cut the legs out from under him. There’s a long history of proxy rule in the Kremlin.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:56 pm

I must say I am dissepointed in Sergey Lavrov. I would think that he could talk some sence into Putin, but seems like that is not the case either.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:56 pm

Thank you Mr. Putin! Due to your war in Ukraine and all these threats the West is united again. Suddenly we all agree on higher budget for defense, Nordstream 2… who would have thought this before.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:59 pm

JJJ wrote:
Best case scenario is some adult in Moscow takes over.

I know little about Shoygu, but I'd like to think he's not totally intimidated by Putin. The recent clip of Bortnikov stuttering when challenged by Putin probably says a lot about the qualities of those surrounding Putin at the moment.


Assuming Putin remains in power. What does the West do, now he's issued a nuclear threat?

Since he has said it was partially in response to NATO "aggressive statements" will that mean no additional missiles for Ukraine from NATO countries? He said no other nations should "interfere"? No more military aid?

It looks like they'll have to concede all of Donbass and the Black Sea coast to Russia. Firm agreement for Ukraine to never join NATO. No compensation from Russia will ever be paid. And then some mechanism to give Russian speakers "rights" to the point Putin can get a pro Moscow candidate elected.

Truth is Putin's just held a gun not to the Ukraine but to NATO. He can now conduct these negotiations with Zelenskyy from a position of strength.
 
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STT757
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:01 pm

The US, UK, NATO and Ukraine has managed this crisis near perfectly, they had the intelligence right the whole way which really screwed up the Russian's timing. It also deflated the false flag stuff the Russian's were trying to cook up, which led them to make a nakedly aggressive move that has embarrassed most Russian people. The US and UK had their RC-135, P-8s, RQ-4s and other platforms doing racetracks above the Ukraine/Russia, Ukraine/Belarus borders and over the Black Sea for weeks.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-02-24/us-spy-planes-doing-double-duty-as-russia-raises-the-stakes-in-ukraine-5129043.html

They fed all that intelligence to Ukraine, the US and UK before the invasion were flying arms in to Ukraine. The Javelins, Stingers and UK N-LAWs have been devastating in their use against Russian armor and aircraft. The resupply lines to Ukraine remain open. Poland, Latvia, France and now even Germany are also supplying Ukraine with arms.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/23/pentagon-studying-fallback-supply-lines-to-ukraine-in-case-of-expanded-russian-invasion/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/01/25/the-uk-airmailed-2000-nlaw-missiles-to-ukraine-are-they-useful/?sh=1f5fadc54170

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-plane-brings-military-equipment-munitions-ukraine-2022-01-25/

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/23/pentagon-studying-fallback-supply-lines-to-ukraine-in-case-of-expanded-russian-invasion/

Outside NATO forces hitting Russia forces themselves, this was the best outcome. The Ukrainian people and their military have really exposed the Russian military and made Putin look like a crazy old fool. The damage to Russia is done.

And you can't front on that.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:01 pm

Derico wrote:
par13del wrote:
The issue on nuclear weapon use in Ukraine is what is the "West" response to the alert and what would they do if actually used.
What Putin will do is what Putin will do, can his decision be influenced... .yes... question is how. He has gone public, the "West" can do the same or back channels telling him what....? Once deployed in Ukraine the weather will determine who soon and how much fall out goes to the rest of Europe, right now bordering countries can deny refugees, there is nothing they can do about fallout, so the stakes are much different.


The West should put its forces on higher alert, I don't know if the nuclear ones, but whatever protocols can be elevated.

The "West" cannot do anything with their nuclear forces as any such action can be used by Putin as a threat and justification.
However, those further afield can do things to make him take notice. The UK, France or USA can send more subs to sea, that may let him know that they took his nuclear threat seriously.
Command and control there is still greater than the preparation for deployment of tactical weapons.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:08 pm

Mortyman wrote:
I must say I am dissepointed in Sergey Lavrov. I would think that he could talk some sence into Putin, but seems like that is not the case either.


Personally, I never considered Lavrov to be anything other than Putin’s yapping lapdog.
 
Derico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:10 pm

par13del wrote:
Derico wrote:
par13del wrote:
The issue on nuclear weapon use in Ukraine is what is the "West" response to the alert and what would they do if actually used.
What Putin will do is what Putin will do, can his decision be influenced... .yes... question is how. He has gone public, the "West" can do the same or back channels telling him what....? Once deployed in Ukraine the weather will determine who soon and how much fall out goes to the rest of Europe, right now bordering countries can deny refugees, there is nothing they can do about fallout, so the stakes are much different.


The West should put its forces on higher alert, I don't know if the nuclear ones, but whatever protocols can be elevated.

The "West" cannot do anything with their nuclear forces as any such action can be used by Putin as a threat and justification.
However, those further afield can do things to make him take notice. The UK, France or USA can send more subs to sea, that may let him know that they took his nuclear threat seriously.
Command and control there is still greater than the preparation for deployment of tactical weapons.


That's absurd. He started the war, he increased the level first. He can view whatever as justification, or just make it up out of his mouth. He can't be reached.

The audience for such a move is not Putin at this point. Is the hopefully sane people around him, and the Russian people at large. When they hear the rest of the world also increased their war footing, yes it's a bit dangerous, but I think the calculation can be made that you are only matching Putin's move, that, in reality, you are not THAT much more at risk for an event, but that there is a much greater psychological upside to wake up everyone in Russia that now its gotten real.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:11 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:

Truth is Putin's just held a gun not to the Ukraine but to NATO. He can now conduct these negotiations with Zelenskyy from a position of strength.


The absolute opposite.

Putin no longer has to conduct talks with Ukraine alone, he has made sure Ukraine has the full backing of Western democracies whereas mere weeks back it was lukewarm at best. It's easy to forget now but the Maidan revolution that spurred all this was a very messy affair and Western governments were very much hesitant to be caught in bed with the Ukrainian political class.

Putin misread that into thinking no one would stand for Ukraine, not even Ukrainians themselves, and now he's down to using MAD doctrine.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:27 pm

https://www.ultimahora.es/sucesos/ultim ... riano.html

On a lighter note (link in Spanish, haven't seen an English source yet)

The Ukrainian skipper of Rosoboronoexport's General Manager yacht has sunk it as a protest by opening the valves. It was moored in one of Mallorca's ports. A 47m ship by the name of Lady Anastasia, and valued at some 7m euro.

The unnamed sailor was arrested yesterday then sent home pending charges.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:36 pm

JJJ wrote:
https://www.ultimahora.es/sucesos/ultimas/2022/02/27/1704825/detenido-marinero-ucraniano-por-hundir-yate-lujo-jefe-ruso-port-adriano.html

On a lighter note (link in Spanish, haven't seen an English source yet)

The Ukrainian skipper of Rosoboronoexport's General Manager yacht has sunk it as a protest by opening the valves. It was moored in one of Mallorca's ports. A 47m ship by the name of Lady Anastasia, and valued at some 7m euro.

The unnamed sailor was arrested yesterday then sent home pending charges.


I do suspect a lot of the Oligarchs and big business folks from Russia are going to have it out with Putin. I expect this week there will be a lot more internal Russian issues reaching daylight.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:46 pm

luckyone wrote:
JJJ wrote:
luckyone wrote:
I don’t buy the crazy theory. Putin has been around for years and years. He didn’t come to power as a madman a la Hitler and right off the bat start deploying tanks. No, he’s been the boss for 20+ years. Something else is driving this. I wouldn’t portend to know precisely why or what, but rather like the Maoist Cultural Revolution, this is being driven by internal politics. Putin may be trying to pay off a powerful underling (here’s your port city!), or snuff one out.


There are reports that he's been increasingly isolated and paranoid especially during covid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... fears.html

20+ years of power is a remarkable achievement, but the dynamics of Russian politics probably mean he has ended up surrounded by yes-men and that the necessary checks and balances and plan challenging and review just aren't there. His rhetoric have been increasingly bold post-Crimea which very likely made him and his staff misread the response from Ukraine and the West.

As they say in investment, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

I won’t discount that out of hand, but I’d like to see more than a tweet from Marco Rubio and an article in the Daily Mail.


Just read this politico piece.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... lculation/

It's definitely guesswork, but a lot of the signs are out there.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:51 pm

Derico wrote:
par13del wrote:
Derico wrote:

The West should put its forces on higher alert, I don't know if the nuclear ones, but whatever protocols can be elevated.

The "West" cannot do anything with their nuclear forces as any such action can be used by Putin as a threat and justification.
However, those further afield can do things to make him take notice. The UK, France or USA can send more subs to sea, that may let him know that they took his nuclear threat seriously.
Command and control there is still greater than the preparation for deployment of tactical weapons.


That's absurd. He started the war, he increased the level first. He can view whatever as justification, or just make it up out of his mouth. He can't be reached.

The audience for such a move is not Putin at this point. Is the hopefully sane people around him, and the Russian people at large. When they hear the rest of the world also increased their war footing, yes it's a bit dangerous, but I think the calculation can be made that you are only matching Putin's move, that, in reality, you are not THAT much more at risk for an event, but that there is a much greater psychological upside to wake up everyone in Russia that now its gotten real.

I will admit that I do not think Russian society is as socially active and influential as those of us in the western hemisphere, if such existed including those in his inner circle, I do not think he would have survived for 20+ years. Putin got a lot of points in Russia for his role in Syria, did that embolden him to try more, only time will tell, however, history is written by the victors, so we will see.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:01 pm

Russian official apologises for war in Ukraine at UN climate meet

The Russian head of delegation at a major UN climate conference apologised for his country's invasion of Ukraine on Sunday, which he said lacked justification, according to several sources who heard him speak at the virtual meeting.

The surprise intervention from Russia's Oleg Anisimov at the closed-door meeting followed an electrifying live statement from his Ukranian counterpart, Svitlana Krakovska, who spoke passionately about her country's plight.

"Let me present an present an apology on behalf of all Russians not able to prevent this conflict," Anisimov said at the closing plenary of the virtual, 195-nation forum, according to three sources who heard him speak




Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst
 
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lugie
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:01 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


Virtual737 wrote:
... but at the same time he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert, claiming that the west and NATO are being aggressive.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278



My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:06 pm

lugie wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


Virtual737 wrote:
... but at the same time he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert, claiming that the west and NATO are being aggressive.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278



My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:07 pm

lugie wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


Virtual737 wrote:
... but at the same time he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert, claiming that the west and NATO are being aggressive.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278



My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


Well that is a worst case timeline. However I do agree about the exorbitant demands part. I don't think Russia knows how to back down from the dumb course of action they have made, A unilateral withdrawal would make Russia look like the awful country they currently are in the point . Not only with the people abroad, but their own citizens. Ukraine on the other hand is sitting pretty with plenty of western backing. The exact opposite of what Putin wanted.

The worst case timeline is that Putin is just crazy enough to launch that full scale invasion with "specialty weapons" that creates a nightmare, and then he covers it up with propaganda and lies.
 
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william
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:20 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
lugie wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


Virtual737 wrote:
... but at the same time he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert, claiming that the west and NATO are being aggressive.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278



My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.


Because Russia doesn’t have spy satellites and know where he is now
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:30 pm

william wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
lugie wrote:




My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.


Because Russia doesn’t have spy satellites and know where he is now


Either their missiles or their spy satellites aren't as good as you think they are. If they were, he'd already be dead.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:34 pm

william wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
lugie wrote:




My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.


Because Russia doesn’t have spy satellites and know where he is now

You're saying they do know where he is at? Spy satellites are not magic. They cannot see through buildings.

Why would Zelenskyy be alive now?

Didn't the US have spy satellites when looking for Bin Laden and Baghdadi?

Tracing Zelenskyy after the talks is my fear too. Surely any transport or vehicle will be tracked, if not out right blown away after leaving...
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:35 pm

EU will purchase and deliver weapons to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 4634882048
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:37 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
lugie wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


Virtual737 wrote:
... but at the same time he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert, claiming that the west and NATO are being aggressive.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-military-command-to-put-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-12553278



My theory about those two news items (and this is kind of a worst case timeline):

He'll initiate those talks, make some exorbitant demands that he knows Ukraine wouldn't agree to in a million years, talks lead nowhere, he blames Ukraine for throwing away the "last diplomatic lifeline" and then indiscriminate shelling or aerial bombings of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities start, all while keeping his finger on the nuclear trigger to deter any sort of further steps by the West which they would clearly be pressed to take due to the immense destruction and civilian casualties such a campaign would entail.


My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.


I could be wrong but I didn't interpret that as that the presidents would meet, just that it would be delegations and no mention of who
 
masonh2479
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:40 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
william wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:

My concern is that immediately prior to and after the meet, Putin will know exactly where Zelenskyy is. Nothing that sorry excuse for a human does will surprise me any more.


Because Russia doesn’t have spy satellites and know where he is now

You're saying they do know where he is at? Spy satellites are not magic. They cannot see through buildings.

Why would Zelenskyy be alive now?

Didn't the US have spy satellites when looking for Bin Laden and Baghdadi?

Tracing Zelenskyy after the talks is my fear too. Surely any transport or vehicle will be tracked, if not out right blown away after leaving...

With how much of a hero Zelenskyy has become to the Ukrainian people it really is not a good idea to kill him or even capture him at this point. If he were killed or captured it would likely enrage the Ukrainian fighters and see Russian losses only increase. Same could be said for the US, if Biden is captured or killed I’m not just gonna stand by and let Russia bully me. At this point I think Putin’s best strategy would be to accept a full retreat of Russian forces and end this madness. Unfortunately, we are all dealing with an angry man child as the leader of Russia. He’ll get plenty of time to spend with his idol Stalin in hell in due time.
 
masonh2479
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:47 pm

The Antonov 225 is destroyed… https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497975641387503622

Edit: just learned this was known for hours now
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:56 pm

Amazing video being shown on CNN right now of a whole column of Russian military vehicles decimated by the Ukrainians in eastern Kiev.
 
masonh2479
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:58 pm

Virtual737 wrote:
Amazing video being shown on CNN right now of a whole column of Russian military vehicles decimated by the Ukrainians in eastern Kiev.

I highly doubt any of those dead Russian soldiers wanted to be in a war with Ukraine. Someone brave just needs to cut the devils head. I’ve seen videos of the Russians and a lot look like scared teenagers who just want to go home. Truly sad
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:59 pm

And EU have now closed airspace to Russian aircraft. Link in the other thread.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/TreLarat/status/1497975911580372999/photo/1
 
Derico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:00 pm

The conversation all these last few years was about how Russia was trying to sow division in Europe, North America, Middle East and further afield. A long-term,systematic infiltration and influencing campaign with the purported goal if increasing Russian power through the cracks of such divisions. Such a plan takes a very long time to both set up, and then also a very long time to actually get results from this type of engagement.

Given the above (if true), there are two possible scenarios:

1. Putin believed the international field had been softened enough to engage in military adventurism and receive a cacophony of disunity, and mixed, and therefore harmless blowback. If so, it will go down as one of the biggest blunders in contemporary history. Undoing the "work" of decades (read above), in a stroke of a pen, and sending allies and even other nations in the precise opposite direction. It will likely cause China to back off to some degree, it will cost significant treasury and economic widgets, make Russia untrustworthy for trade/economic ties for a generation with Europe, and all for perhaps a "short-term" lease of Ukraine. As undoubtedly (assuming the current Ukrainian government will be in exile for some time), eventually it will break the other way far more strongly towards Europe than the last time. So a complete geopolitical calamity for Russia.

2. The more dangerous scenario is that something has radically changed either with Putin himslelf, or in his environment within Russia just in the last few months to a year. As a result, in his most recent cost-benefit analysis, doing a radical U-turn and totally undoing the campaigns of the last decade or more, plus losing the pipeline, losing a bunch of other economic ties, and just gravely harming his general international standing (as he surely knows that even Blair and Bush, while not prosecuted for their crimes, have been ostracized significantly in the world and even their own countries to some degree), was worth it.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:03 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


How long before the Ukrainian condition for talks is Putin's removal from power (voluntary or otherwise) ?
 
masonh2479
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:04 pm

Aesma wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Not sure what to make of this but delegations (Ukr/Rus) to meet on the border according to Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497933773828239366


How long before the Ukrainian condition for talks is Putin's removal from power (voluntary or otherwise) ?

Anything short of a full withdrawal of Russian forces should be ignored by the Ukrainians, give nothing to the Russians.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:08 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497706110152753168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497706110152753168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This is worrying. Putin is being increasingly being backed in a corner with no off-ramp. This is not going to end well. Maybe Ukraine should make some major concessions while their cities are mostly intact. The idea that Putin will get frustrated with the campaign and simply give up and order a full retreat is a pipe dream.



Clear answer: NO! You can not believe him, he will never stop. You can not make some major concessions, than you show weekness and he will take the rest. He has to be near a defeat, or it has to be clarified, he is not able to win, else the conzession will be just only "whole Ukraine". And he will keep as he has taken to this point even in best case.

The Russian army is not prepared for this war, after the Syrian campaign, they have not refilled the stocks with ammunition, especially everything, that can be called "smart". But the regular Russian bombs are "cheaper" in design and build,, but regarding this, aerodynamically flawed and less precise. The Russian jets have to fly deaper in range of MANPADS, the whole Blitzkrieg tactic is best, if you will fight against a big armored conventional army and pure horror against small tank hunter units...and so on.

The whole Ukraine campaign is a combined "Blitzkrieg/Afghanistan Taliban" campaign, in expectation, the Ukraine will collapse like Afrghanistan in few hours, when the Taliban have started thei offensive. The Russian army is not prepared for anything else and has also not prepared for. The number of Russian soldiers of something like 150.000 is just not numerous enough for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, when Ukraine has mobilized the conscripts. They will soon get in trouble, when the ammunitions starts to be depleated.

This will not end nice.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:20 pm

Never back off from a bully as he will kick you again. If we get a punch so be it but he's not standing up.
It's actually very nice to see unity on such scale.
We really should stop pointing fingers at each other right now.
Unite, reflect and do better.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:42 pm

The EU is banning RT and Sputnik (individual EU countries were already in the process of doing so) : https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/eur ... 50394.html
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 5:42 pm

T4thH wrote:
The number of Russian soldiers of something like 150.000 is just not numerous enough for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, when Ukraine has mobilized the conscripts. They will soon get in trouble, when the ammunitions starts to be depleated.

This will not end nice.


Not to mention that the Russians seem to have not thought the supply and support logistics through very well, and that their troops will lack the morale that the Ukrainians have.

One side has been thrust into an unjustified assault against an innocent nation (I don't think most Russian soldiers are dumb enough to believe Putin's ridiculous propaganda) which also happens to be hugely unpopular and decried across the World, making them the most hated people on the planet right about now.
The other side is heroically fighting for the survival of their nation and are supported, praised and lauded by almost everyone on Earth.

Hopefully the West will find a way to keep the Ukrainian soldiers and resistance armed and supplied. It's the very least they could do after deciding to just watch from the sidelines and ineffectively wag their fingers at a toddler they've no control of whatsoever...

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