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bennett123
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:46 pm

IMO, this issue about oil and gas is something else that Putin got wrong.

If he had struck about Christmas it would have been much more effective.

As we get into the spring, people will start to turn the heating down.
 
Duality
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:56 pm

T4thH wrote:

Let us say on this way. Putin has no exit strategy, what is of course a critical failure. He must have had one, but seems he has not.

We have to get out every single civilian from all cities, we will see Grozny 10 or 20 times...so 10 or 20 cities terminated. The Ukrainian will fight.

What iII do not understand...the 60 km column. Ukraine has 80 BM 30 Smerch. One round of the 12 barrels of a Smerch can cover 500 m. So they all together have only one time to reload and even overlapping. So it can be finished in 40 min.

WHERE THE HELL ARE THEY!


IMO it is far more effective to let this 40 km column 'fail in place'...

If it is wiped out, this may galvanize the Russian military. But if it slowly grinds to a halt, mired in logistics failures with soldiers abandoning their posts... far more effective.

Ive been thinking of this and watching...only if it seems it will achieve it's objective, THEN it will be attacked. Well inside Ukraine...
 
Duality
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:58 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
OA260 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abramovich-confirms-he-will-sell-chelsea-with-all-net-proceeds-to-benefit-victims-of-ukraine-war-12555801

Roman Abramovich confirms he will sell Chelsea - with all 'net proceeds' to benefit victims of Ukraine war

Interesting development tonight . I wonder if others will follow .


Smart.
This way he can actually show his face in different places after Putin is dead.


Fascinating, right?

What, $5-8B to buy a future in the free world?
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:02 am

Sanctions, a Russian view. Intersting, oh yes, they are successful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bu6xUG9zoRg&t=590s
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:14 am

Duality wrote:
If it is wiped out, this may galvanize the Russian military. But if it slowly grinds to a halt, mired in logistics failures with soldiers abandoning their posts... far more effective.

Ive been thinking of this and watching...only if it seems it will achieve it's objective, THEN it will be attacked. Well inside Ukraine...


It might well be worth just cutting it off from supplies so it cannot do anything or go anywhere. Make it clear to them also that they won't get support and that they should give up.

Interesting, there was a mention that China might have had advance warning of this attack and asked Russia to delay it until after the Olympics in China:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-offici ... 022-03-02/

Also interesting is the battle of Techno House:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/onli ... 6ade7e7507
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:22 am

Duality wrote:
T4thH wrote:

Let us say on this way. Putin has no exit strategy, what is of course a critical failure. He must have had one, but seems he has not.

We have to get out every single civilian from all cities, we will see Grozny 10 or 20 times...so 10 or 20 cities terminated. The Ukrainian will fight.

What iII do not understand...the 60 km column. Ukraine has 80 BM 30 Smerch. One round of the 12 barrels of a Smerch can cover 500 m. So they all together have only one time to reload and even overlapping. So it can be finished in 40 min.

WHERE THE HELL ARE THEY!


IMO it is far more effective to let this 40 km column 'fail in place'...

If it is wiped out, this may galvanize the Russian military. But if it slowly grinds to a halt, mired in logistics failures with soldiers abandoning their posts... far more effective.

Ive been thinking of this and watching...only if it seems it will achieve it's objective, THEN it will be attacked. Well inside Ukraine...

Don't attack them while they're miles out, wait for them to come kick your ass?

Morale is in the toilet for this pointless invasion, I doubt them losing a massive amount of forces will "galvanize them." It's not like Ukraine is rolling into Moscow and killing a huge amount of Russian military...
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:53 am

Been following this discussion with interest.

I would add that discussing Russian actions in Ukraine while deflecting questions about NATO’s actions in the Balkans in the 90s without clarifying why NATO were there is tantamount to genocide denial!

Its been 30+ years? Why the denial? Can you expect the murderous Russian ruling elite to come clean while covering up your own crimes?
 
victrola
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:09 am

So 3 US congressmen voted NO on a resolution expressing support for Ukraine:

Paul Gosar, Republican, Arizona
Thomas Massie Republican, Kentucky
Ratt Rosendale Republican Montana

My words to these pathetic apologists for Russia are the same words that the Ukranian soldiers on Snake Island had for the Russian ship captain. Perhaps people out there should call these Congressmen's offices and express this message.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:25 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Been following this discussion with interest.

I would add that discussing Russian actions in Ukraine while deflecting questions about NATO’s actions in the Balkans in the 90s without clarifying why NATO were there is tantamount to genocide denial!

Its been 30+ years? Why the denial? Can you expect the murderous Russian ruling elite to come clean while covering up your own crimes?

You mean Srebrenica?

Yeah, I'm all with you, allowing that to happen was an absolute disgrace back then!

Not happening this time!
 
victrola
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:36 am

So, the city of Khersan fell today. The Russians gave an ultimatum to the mayor that they would level the city. The mayor surrendered. Given that this happened is there no reason to believe that this won't happen in other Ukranian cities?
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:37 am

9000 russian troops dead per president Zelensky. In the first week. What massive rocket explosions were those in Kiev?

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wojna- ... wo/ztv0qk4
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:40 am

victrola wrote:
So, the city of Khersan fell today. The Russians gave an ultimatum to the mayor that they would level the city. The mayor surrendered. Given that this happened is there no reason to believe that this won't happen in other Ukranian cities?
Khersan isn't that important. It's only the 17th largest city in Ukraine. Just because one leader falls for a threat, doesn't mean they all will.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Ukraine
 
SL1200MK2
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:42 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Been following this discussion with interest.

I would add that discussing Russian actions in Ukraine while deflecting questions about NATO’s actions in the Balkans in the 90s without clarifying why NATO were there is tantamount to genocide denial!

Its been 30+ years? Why the denial? Can you expect the murderous Russian ruling elite to come clean while covering up your own crimes?


See, I don’t think the ruling class of Russia will come clean regardless. Since I’m curious, what would coming clean entail to the world to a place where said ruling class comes clean?
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:44 am

Kherson and the surrounding area is *critically* important to Crimea. Control of the area means the fresh water supply to Crimea using the river Dnieper can be restarted. Lack of fresh water has been one of the major problems faced by Crimea since 2014
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:50 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Kherson and the surrounding area is *critically* important to Crimea. Control of the area means the fresh water supply to Crimea using the river Dnieper can be restarted. Lack of fresh water has been one of the major problems faced by Crimea since 2014
Thanks! I didn't know that.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:34 am

https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-e ... n-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:41 am

alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.
So we shouldn't have armed them and Russia could've walked all over them. Then, with their new confidence, they'd pick Georgia, then the Baltic states, then Poland, then...
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:54 am

T4thH wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I am amazed Ukraine is still defending itself.

Is there a good source on the partisan activity in "conquered areas" harassing supply convoys?

Lightsaber

What I have seen, the Russian army has left behind extreme high amounts of broken down eqipment or stucked in the mud tanks e.g, ungarded. Seems the civilians are looting them, taking the ammunition and light weapons, and when they are behind enemy lines then these have little problems that they get warm...


If Ukrainian pilots coul get some MIGS, they could destroy lots of the conveys that are out of fuel on the ground.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:56 am

alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.


So, the proper alternative was...what...exactly?
 
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zkojq
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:32 am

Dilbar, the enormous superyacht of Alisher Usmanov has been seized in Hamburg where it's undergoing a refit.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotog ... ega-yacht/
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:41 am

Aaron747 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.


So, the proper alternative was...what...exactly?


According to many here, it seems to be just giving away Ukraine to Putin.

At this stage, you have to admire the naivety of those who still believe that the invasion of Ukraine was somehow justified by NATO or the US 'provoking' Russia by siding with Ukraine.

You don't like your neighboring country siding with a group of countries adhering to a different political ideology to yours? Just invade them! It's completely justified... apparently.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:53 am

Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.


So, the proper alternative was...what...exactly?


According to many here, it seems to be just giving away Ukraine to Putin.

At this stage, you have to admire the naivety of those who still believe that the invasion of Ukraine was somehow justified by NATO or the US 'provoking' Russia by siding with Ukraine.

You don't like your neighboring country siding with a group of countries adhering to a different political ideology to yours? Just invade them! It's completely justified... apparently.


It's ridiculous. Those takes also completely ignore the delicate balance EU and especially US were trying to strike in the last decade - respecting sovereignty of former Soviet states *while* trying not to provoke Putin. Case in point - the US consistently opposed Ukraine's formal applications to NATO several times on the basis of corruption and lack of force readiness - but also because it would be a blatant provocation.
 
Newark727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:01 am

Raising no response to the 2014 invasion would, in the long run, have been even worse for peace than the situation we have now, because it would essentially say that yes, it's totally fine to go adjusting national borders on an opportunity and a whim. We've already been through that period of history, and it wasn't pretty.

If anything, the criticism I'm more accustomed to seeing is that not enough was done.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:59 am

alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.



Not sure how it backfired? I think it is working, better yet would have been better if russia kept her filthy fingers in her own ass.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:15 am

PhilBy wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Putin must be prosecuted before International Criminal Court

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/puti ... t-1.481547

Doubt it will ever happen he will probably shoot himself before it got that far or an internal assassination.


Given that neither Russia or the US of A recognise the ICC, it will be hard to get him there!


But the Ukraine does, and that is where the war is, so the ICC has jurisdiction.

best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:23 am

PixelPilot wrote:
I'm actually waiting for Germany to announce they are powering up their Nuclear Plants though not sure how that would work and if even possible at this point.


The owners of the NPPs don´t want to run them longer, but luckily the government can just order them to stay on.The NPPs that shut down 8 weeks ago are essentially still fully crewed and operational too,

SEAorPWM wrote:
art wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Personally I would cut Nord Stream 1 and ban US from purchasing oil just to for that cherry on top feeling.


I think that Europe is in a very weak position where dependence on Russian gas is concerned. With the price of gas and oil being very high - oil earlier today $110+ a barrel, gas price at a record level - Russia will be getting many more dollars for the amount of gas that was being delivered before the 'special miltary operation' so can reduce supply (and probably raise the price still further). Russia can also reduce Nord1 supply to zero when it chooses whereas Europe cannot cut gas consumption to zero when it chooses. (OK, I know Russia does not supply 100% of the gas used in Europe but a cut in the Nord1 supply would cause it major problems).

It's a bit strange that trade with Russia is more or less being halted or banned by Europe yet buying gas has not been banned. I will be a little surprised if Putin does not exploit the situation. Stop/start, reduced volumes of gas at times would put him in a strong position, wouldn't it?

Price data: https://oilprice.com/


That's the problem with this whole thing - none of the big OPEC producers (even the "allies" of the US) seem to care about this catastrophe, and the US is taking its time recovering its domestic production (or offsetting consumption through conservation and renewables) due to various political and economic forces.

With all the Chinas, Brazils, and UAE's out there, Russia will still have a propped-up market for its fossil fuels, even if the EU and US eventually sanction or stop purchasing it.


The logical soltion is to automatically extend sanctions to countries still buying fossil fuels from Russia.

Having a carrot for Putin wasn´t a bad idea, but since it didn´t work it is time to stop buying gas, oil and coal from Russia, but that only makes sense if everybody else is also stopped from buying them.

best regards
Thomas
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:26 am

Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://warontherocks.com/2015/02/the-escalation-advocates-are-wrong-on-ukraine/

This article predicted way back in 2015 that the policy of arming Ukraine would backfire. The U.S. failed with their response following the events of 2014.


So, the proper alternative was...what...exactly?


According to many here, it seems to be just giving away Ukraine to Putin.

At this stage, you have to admire the naivety of those who still believe that the invasion of Ukraine was somehow justified by NATO or the US 'provoking' Russia by siding with Ukraine.

You don't like your neighboring country siding with a group of countries adhering to a different political ideology to yours? Just invade them! It's completely justified... apparently.

It really is ridiculous... it's as if some angry, unhinged dude beat up his ex girlfriend while yelling "you w****, how dare you flirt with that other guy! You getting beat up is all YOUR fault! You can't be with anyone else!"

And these criticisms of NATO are really annoying. Sure, NATO/the US/EU are not perfect. But come on:

1. Why did the Baltic states want to join NATO? Why the eastern European countries?
2. Why do you think Ukraine wanted to be in NATO?
3. Why are even Sweden and Finland warming up to NATO?
4. After this stunt the Russians are pulling, re-ask yourself questions #1-3. If you're stumped, I don't know what to say
5. What is more likely, Georgia invading Russia, or Russia invading Georgia? (As if this needs to be asked)
6. What is more likely, Ukraine invading Russia, or Russia invading Ukraine? (As if this needs to be asked)
7. What is more likely, Eastern Europe/Baltic states invading Russia, or Russia invading Eastern Europe/Baltic states?
8. Condense questions 5-7 into "Who actually wants to invade Russia?" Seriously, no one in the West wants anything to do with a war with Russia, wants any of its territory, enjoys pissing off Russia, etc.

Now I completely understand why the Kremlin will frame NATO as a threat to Russia. I can see why a Russian citizen with only their state-run media will fear NATO, even though NATO wants nothing to do with Russia ever. And I do realize that this perception shouldn't just be completely ignored (as baseless as the fear is, it's still there for a lot of Russian citizens).

But let's not, in this thread, pretend like NATO has any more than 3% of the blame in all this. Geopolitics are hardly ever black and white, but this situation is pretty tough to be a NATO-is-the-aggressor/a Russia apologist and be taken seriously. When your post is essentially "if Ukraine had only done everything Russia wanted, Russia would have never invaded," you aren't convincing anyone.
 
Virtual737
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:33 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

So, the proper alternative was...what...exactly?


According to many here, it seems to be just giving away Ukraine to Putin.

At this stage, you have to admire the naivety of those who still believe that the invasion of Ukraine was somehow justified by NATO or the US 'provoking' Russia by siding with Ukraine.

You don't like your neighboring country siding with a group of countries adhering to a different political ideology to yours? Just invade them! It's completely justified... apparently.

It really is ridiculous... it's as if some angry, unhinged dude beat up his ex girlfriend while yelling "you w****, how dare you flirt with that other guy! You getting beat up is all YOUR fault! You can't be with anyone else!"

And these criticisms of NATO are really annoying. Sure, NATO/the US/EU are not perfect. But come on:

1. Why did the Baltic states want to join NATO? Why the eastern European countries?
2. Why do you think Ukraine wanted to be in NATO?
3. Why are even Sweden and Finland warming up to NATO?
4. After this stunt the Russians are pulling, re-ask yourself questions #1-3. If you're stumped, I don't know what to say
5. What is more likely, Georgia invading Russia, or Russia invading Georgia? (As if this needs to be asked)
6. What is more likely, Ukraine invading Russia, or Russia invading Ukraine? (As if this needs to be asked)
7. What is more likely, Eastern Europe/Baltic states invading Russia, or Russia invading Eastern Europe/Baltic states?
8. Condense questions 5-7 into "Who actually wants to invade Russia?" Seriously, no one in the West wants anything to do with a war with Russia, wants any of its territory, enjoys pissing off Russia, etc.

Now I completely understand why the Kremlin will frame NATO as a threat to Russia. I can see why a Russian citizen with only their state-run media will fear NATO, even though NATO wants nothing to do with Russia ever. And I do realize that this perception shouldn't just be completely ignored (as baseless as the fear is, it's still there for a lot of Russian citizens).

But let's not, in this thread, pretend like NATO has any more than 3% of the blame in all this. Geopolitics are hardly ever black and white, but this situation is pretty tough to be a NATO-is-the-aggressor/a Russia apologist and be taken seriously. When your post is essentially "if Ukraine had only done everything Russia wanted, Russia would have never invaded," you aren't convincing anyone.


Einstein was brilliant in so many ways. He saw from the start what nuclear weapons would do to the world. Without them, Russia couldn't do any of this. You could argue that MAD is the perfect deterrent, but that assumes no human is insane.

Unfortunately, technology and progress is unstoppable and nuclear was always going to be discovered. Begs the question what else will be discovered that is even more terrifying.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:35 am

SL1200MK2 wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Interesting take on Putin and Bible prophecy being fulfilled on Monday from Pat Robertson, Founder of the 700 Club. Gog and Magog and Ezekiel 38.
It's in the first 10 minutes of the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K91uzwDcYAs


You watch the 700 Club? Lolololol

Isn’t he the guy that said 9/11 happened because of gay people or something?


I'm not going to take time to addresses your fallacies. Wallow in them for all I care!
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:54 am

wingman wrote:
art wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
If you want peace, you have to get solutions good for everyone. In 1993 Russia and Russian people were all pro-western. We 3 times rejected Russia when they asked about joining NATO. Last time it was in 2000. Smarter people then me (Kagan, Kissinger) wrote in the past, that expanding NATO is wrong and will alienate Russia. Well, we will never know, but I think that if we would make different decisions in the past we would be better of now.


Indeed. The collapse of the USSR offered a once in several generations opportunity to allow one's ex-enemy to become one's friend. It was madness to pass up that opportunity IMO.


I disagree completely. Countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary lived under the Soviet boot for 40 years. Two capitals were stormed and hundreds or thousands killed expressing themselves. That kind of tyranny and repression has consequences and the people that suffer it will do anything to ensure it never happens again. So they join the NATO and the EU. Smart move because just over one generation later one of the child of Soviet Russia dreaming of tyrannical glory is right back at it. Russians have no one to blame except themselves. Day 2 post Cold War they wanted us to welcome them with open arms and give them a seat at the table? Now that's as naive a thought as I've seen in a long time. You earn a right like that and Russia's earned nothing. They deserve every heaping spoonful of scorn and economic reprisals as they have coming to them.


By this logic, Russia is completely reasonable being totally paranoid as they were invaded from the west for hundreds of years. We shall be super paranoid about Germany. Being Slovak, I shall be paranoid about Hungary and Poland, who carved out pieces of Slovakia during Munich betrayal.

Spain, managed to close Franco chapter. In a bloody civil war there were 500000 people killed. Once Franco was gone, they were able to unite, forgive and forged new democracy.

Russia was no ZSSR anymore in 90'. They were trying hard to make reforms, integrate. Instead of real help in that area, we pushed them away. And not only till day 2. We managed to do it all the time. We help them to become what they are.


wingman wrote:

Raising your stature, being respected, improving your way of life for your citizens, joining a community of competitive nations that argue but ultimately respect one another (most days)...that shit all takes hard damn work over generations. You don't get there by designing the world's most repugnant oligarchic kleptocracy and fling information war shit all over the world while your only economic achievement is to suck oil out of the earth and convince your neighbors your a reliable source of heat...only to turn around and expose your bullshit the very first chance you get. I hear the shame of ordinary Russians on the internet and radio every day now. I feel badly for them. But they need to do something for themselves. It's hard work and living on the lie of propagandists like Putin is never the answer. Good luck to them.


Oligarchic kleptocracy? That was in almost all the east European countries in the 90'. Transition to market capitalism was a total mess. Here, Czech, Ukraine, Russia .. you name. Oligarchs from Ukraine and Russia are still there. They were enjoying "west" safety, banks ... till now. West did not mind dirty money flowing from east to west. Just check current scandal of Credit Suisse.

Heck, even Goerge Kennan, who was one of authors of USSR contianment policy argued that NATO eastward expansion is a mistake:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the- ... what-next/

George F. Kennan, had called the expansion of NATO into Central Europe “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” Kennan, the architect of America’s post-World War II strategy of containment of the Soviet Union, believed, as did most other Russia experts in the United States, that expanding NATO would damage beyond repair U.S. efforts to transform Russia from enemy to partner.


Henry Kissinger was actually against Ukraine joining NATO: Very nice article by him:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html
I recommend to read it.
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:10 am

scbriml wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
So IMHO we have 2 options:
a; let people die. Either by letting this dragging for long and Ukraine people dying for us too or by going in and start war NATO vs Russia.
b; start thinking how to offer carrot .. for all.


There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying
 
SL1200MK2
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:33 am

jaro76 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
So IMHO we have 2 options:
a; let people die. Either by letting this dragging for long and Ukraine people dying for us too or by going in and start war NATO vs Russia.
b; start thinking how to offer carrot .. for all.


There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


What sort of small reward do you think would cause russia to stop the war?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:00 am

jaro76 wrote:
After make sure this will not repeat.


so, demilitarisation of Russia? Since that is the only way to make sure it won´t repeat.

best regards
Thomas
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:01 am

ltbewr wrote:
It is interesting the massive effort to cut off Russia in many economic ways, limiting travel, going after in particular rich Russians in Europe and elsewhere only happened with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I think many countries have been looking for an good enough excuse to go after Russian oligarchs who have taken over prime areas of cities like London, being a bunch of rude jerks, owning English football teams and sports teams in other countries and laundering their dirty money that profits only Wall Street, The City and Singapore.


It took west 30 years. Till now, everyone was accepting dirty money from whole world. I'm wondering, are they gonna clamp down on Russian only or really start cleaning the house?
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:07 am

bennett123 wrote:
IMO, this issue about oil and gas is something else that Putin got wrong.

If he had struck about Christmas it would have been much more effective.

As we get into the spring, people will start to turn the heating down.

Yes and no. From April it’s time to fill the supplies for next winter. With current prices that won’t be cheap.
 
astuteman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:11 am

jaro76 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
So IMHO we have 2 options:
a; let people die. Either by letting this dragging for long and Ukraine people dying for us too or by going in and start war NATO vs Russia.
b; start thinking how to offer carrot .. for all.


There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


I must confess that I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe.....
You think rewarding Putin will result in him stopping?
I see the opposite, to be honest
Guys like this, all that rewarding this behaviour will do is encourage him to go the whole way.
I think it's somewhat naïve to think giving in is going to make anything better.....

Rgds
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:12 am

tommy1808 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
I'm actually waiting for Germany to announce they are powering up their Nuclear Plants though not sure how that would work and if even possible at this point.


The owners of the NPPs don´t want to run them longer, but luckily the government can just order them to stay on.The NPPs that shut down 8 weeks ago are essentially still fully crewed and operational too,

SEAorPWM wrote:
art wrote:

I think that Europe is in a very weak position where dependence on Russian gas is concerned. With the price of gas and oil being very high - oil earlier today $110+ a barrel, gas price at a record level - Russia will be getting many more dollars for the amount of gas that was being delivered before the 'special miltary operation' so can reduce supply (and probably raise the price still further). Russia can also reduce Nord1 supply to zero when it chooses whereas Europe cannot cut gas consumption to zero when it chooses. (OK, I know Russia does not supply 100% of the gas used in Europe but a cut in the Nord1 supply would cause it major problems).

It's a bit strange that trade with Russia is more or less being halted or banned by Europe yet buying gas has not been banned. I will be a little surprised if Putin does not exploit the situation. Stop/start, reduced volumes of gas at times would put him in a strong position, wouldn't it?

Price data: https://oilprice.com/


That's the problem with this whole thing - none of the big OPEC producers (even the "allies" of the US) seem to care about this catastrophe, and the US is taking its time recovering its domestic production (or offsetting consumption through conservation and renewables) due to various political and economic forces.

With all the Chinas, Brazils, and UAE's out there, Russia will still have a propped-up market for its fossil fuels, even if the EU and US eventually sanction or stop purchasing it.


The logical soltion is to automatically extend sanctions to countries still buying fossil fuels from Russia.

Having a carrot for Putin wasn´t a bad idea, but since it didn´t work it is time to stop buying gas, oil and coal from Russia, but that only makes sense if everybody else is also stopped from buying them.

best regards
Thomas



In that case, you should start with USA. Buying quite a lot last time I checked. Germany .. and +- whole Europe. Just 2 days ago there was a delivery of fuel for our NPP from Russia. Even gut exception to fly into EU.
What oil and gas price are you willing to accept?
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:16 am

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... n-12556194

Ukraine invasion: Russian and Belarusian athletes out of Paralympics in stunning U-turn

So it seems the heat got too much for them after making initially the wrong choice .
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:17 am

tommy1808 wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
After make sure this will not repeat.


so, demilitarisation of Russia? Since that is the only way to make sure it won´t repeat.

best regards
Thomas


Did not work after ww1 with Germany. It was one of the main seeds for ww2.
Honestly, before the war I was on the wagon of providing new security organization covering Russia too. To avoid feeding their paranoia. We were helping Baltics and Poland with their paranoia in 90' ... IMHO that time, Russia should have been included too. Now, I'm not sure what would work. I'm just a history nerd who is looking at the problems from the history perspective. I would try to ask people like Kissinger, Kennan,... how correctly predicted this situation ages ago. Who were and are in the politics for living. I would really love to hear their opinion.
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:21 am

SL1200MK2 wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


What sort of small reward do you think would cause russia to stop the war?


At this point I do not know. Already wrote in response to other guy, that I would ask people like Kennan, Kissinger. None of them is rusophile. Far from that. Both were professional politicians and diplomats. Both were firmly against USSR. And both were against NATO expansion predicting this situation that we are in now. I would love to hear their proposal.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:27 am

johns624 wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
Kherson and the surrounding area is *critically* important to Crimea. Control of the area means the fresh water supply to Crimea using the river Dnieper can be restarted. Lack of fresh water has been one of the major problems faced by Crimea since 2014
Thanks! I didn't know that.

The Russians had restored the water supply already earlier this week. Kherson also has a bridge over the Dnepr, critical for entering western Ukraine.
 
jaro76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:29 am

astuteman wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


I must confess that I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe.....
You think rewarding Putin will result in him stopping?
I see the opposite, to be honest
Guys like this, all that rewarding this behaviour will do is encourage him to go the whole way.
I think it's somewhat naïve to think giving in is going to make anything better.....

Rgds


Well, i'm not expert on politics. I'm just a history nerd and project manager by profession. I know, that if you want to change behavior of people, you need to offer also something back. Reward. Any small one. If you just issue ultimatum, people will tell you to go ..... and either leave the company or just simply continue doing what they are doing. Also with kids, offering "reward" even in form of some small praise for something you like works wonders. Countries are not people, but they are represented by people. Need to apply similar things into handling them. The biggest difference is, that you can kick ass of bad employee and never really care about him again. With country, you will need to live forever after. We will need to find a way to live Russia. Germany was demilitarized and humiliated after ww1. They were punished only. That grew resentment and was one of the reasons why Hittler got success there. After ww2 west came up with Marshal plan to make sure that there is no seed for ww3 there. They paid reparations, but first west made sure, that they are country again and are able to pay them.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:39 am

jaro76 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
So IMHO we have 2 options:
a; let people die. Either by letting this dragging for long and Ukraine people dying for us too or by going in and start war NATO vs Russia.
b; start thinking how to offer carrot .. for all.


There currently seems to be zero interest in NATO starting a shooting war with Russia. But, I'm very confident that NATO is offering all sorts of "soft help" to Ukraine.

As to offering Putin a carrot, why on earth should such inhuman behaviour be rewarded? The only thing that Putin will accept is the total subjugation of Ukraine with a puppet government installed that will align the country with Moscow while turning its back on Europe. Basically, a second Belarus.

And some people wonder why the Ukrainians are putting up a fight. :banghead:
Image
Source: https://emojigraph.org/media/facebook/f ... -1f1e6.png


Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


Sorry, but this is naive in the extreme. Putin is not stopping now for some magical "small reward". The blood of all the dead is directly on his hands, nobody else's.

Please enlighten me as to what this "small reward" should be? The total surrender of Ukraine?
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:44 am

Virtual737 wrote:

Einstein was brilliant in so many ways. He saw from the start what nuclear weapons would do to the world. Without them, Russia couldn't do any of this. You could argue that MAD is the perfect deterrent, but that assumes no human is insane.

Unfortunately, technology and progress is unstoppable and nuclear was always going to be discovered. Begs the question what else will be discovered that is even more terrifying.


I think we have already know and with drones doing the killings by operators 1000s miles away we have taken the first step. Now you add AI and robots...

Most human are no monsters. Killing (at least for the first few times) someone isn't so easy for many (see the actions of some Russian conscripts). Doing the killing behind screen dehumanises the killing and makes it easier. Now think of the possibility of armies equipped with AI robots, drones and others. Sure with AI we could program for intelligent equipment that doesn't kill civilians and doesn't destroy critical civil infrastructure, but are we to believe that the tyrants of this world would bother with such considerations.
I think we (humanity) could have to fight against a rather nightmarish dystopian future pretty soon...

Hoping to be wrong, best regards
Jonas
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:53 am

jaro76 wrote:
Our target should be to stop the war. If it takes a small reward to Russia, so be it. After make sure this will not repeat. And maybe, in a long run punish Putin.
Argument that we have to focus on punishing Russia, not an inch back above stopping this war, is IMHO wrong. It makes more people dying


Russia was already “rewarded” for their hostilities back in 2014 by taking Crimea and supporting the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Part of that reward was the shooting of MH17 by those separatists, using a BUK missile, provided by the Russians. You are so concerned about people dying, that day in July almost 300 people died (just over 200 were EU civilians, just like you). But those obviously don’t matter…..

You are only talking about the unreasonably punishment of Russia and conveniently ignoring the fact Russia invaded a country and is killing civillians because of the “Nazi-regime” in Kiev. Or do you also accept that excuse? Stopping with those sanctions won’t stop Putin and he will be rewarded with the occupation of Ukraine and destroy a democratic country. I would suggest you should reconsider your standards, they obviously don’t fit with what we have in the EU…..
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:05 am

jaro76 wrote:
To avoid feeding their paranoia. We were helping Baltics and Poland with their paranoia in 90' ... IMHO that time, Russia should have been included too.

Paranoia? Putin has made very clear inhoud recent speeches that he would like to restore the Russian empire…..

After the Iron Curtain went down, Russia became a member of the “Partnership for Peace” and cooperated with NATO very closely.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50349.htm
So they became part of a new security pact in Europe, so what’s your point? As stated by you yesterday, Russia did not apply to become a member of NATO, so it was their choice.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:03 am

johns624 wrote:
victrola wrote:
So, the city of Khersan fell today. The Russians gave an ultimatum to the mayor that they would level the city. The mayor surrendered. Given that this happened is there no reason to believe that this won't happen in other Ukranian cities?
Khersan isn't that important. It's only the 17th largest city in Ukraine. Just because one leader falls for a threat, doesn't mean they all will.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Ukraine


What is the point of having your city levelled when partisans can carry on the fight after the city is surrendered? I suspect that the Russian army has the resources to destroy the cities of Ukraine one by one, inflicting wholesale death with the destruction.
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:06 am

Fitch, Moody's slash Russia's sovereign rating to junk

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0 ... ut-russia/

At this rate the Turkish Lira will look like a strong currency ;)
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:52 am

jaro76 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
jaro76 wrote:
After make sure this will not repeat.


so, demilitarisation of Russia? Since that is the only way to make sure it won´t repeat.

best regards
Thomas


Did not work after ww1 with Germany. It was one of the main seeds for ww2. .


Germany was militarily reduced, not demilitarized, and the allies watched Germany rearm. That was the mistake.

So.. since we now have established that your wishful "make sure this will not repeat" isn´t an option, what now?

best regards
Thomas
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:00 am

OA260 wrote:
Fitch, Moody's slash Russia's sovereign rating to junk

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0 ... ut-russia/

At this rate the Turkish Lira will look like a strong currency ;)

Even toilet paper will have more value…..

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