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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:34 am

Virtual737 wrote:


So this is literally "fake news"?
 
YokoTsuno
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:29 am

Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:34 am

I am struck by the absolute lack of reference to the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, in which

1. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook to respect the borders of Ukraine
2. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook never to attack Ukraine except in self defence

US and UK failed to act with sufficient determination to enforce respect of the borders of Ukraine when Russia seized control of Crimea. The same failure to act was repeated when the Russia seized control of the east of Ukraine. What reaction would Russia reasonably expect if it attempted to seize control of the rest of the country by force?

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetai ... 0280401fbb
 
astuteman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:48 am

YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.


I'm pretty sure he already has his place in the history books....

Rgds
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:05 am

Virtual737 wrote:


Oh no not Peppa Pig ! Thats it where is the nuclear button ;)
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:18 am

Some details regarding the British sanctions against Roman Abramovich, and his business history.
Also worth noting is that the US still haven't imposed sanctions against him.Roman Abramovich.

Roman Abramovich’s Fortune Bought Him Good Will, and Made Him a Target

The oligarch’s billions and his Kremlin connections secured him favors and elite status in the West. Now they’ve landed him on a sanctions list.


As Russian troops massed near the border with Ukraine last month, the American ambassador to Israel received an appeal on behalf of Roman Abramovich,
the most visible of the billionaires linked to President Vladimir V. Putin.

Leaders of cultural, educational and medical institutions, along with a chief rabbi, had sent a letter urging the United States not to impose sanctions on the Russian,
a major donor, saying it would hurt Israel and the Jewish world. Days later, Mr. Abramovich and Yad Vashem, the Holocaust memorial, announced a partnership that
a spokesman for the organization said included a pledge of at least $10 million.


On Friday, Canada announced sanctions of its own against Mr. Abramovich. The United States has not imposed sanctions on the billionaire — so far, at least


The partnership with the Holocaust memorial has been suspended now (after the British sanctions were imposed) by initiative from the Holocaust memoria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/worl ... tions.html
Last edited by Thunderboltdrgn on Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
YokoTsuno
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 10:20 am

astuteman wrote:
YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.


I'm pretty sure he already has his place in the history books....

Rgds
Yes, but not to the same extent as Hitler. 70 years down the road and people are still making movies about him. If Putin wants to dethrone the guy he still has a way to go.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:16 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
Yes, but not to the same extent as Hitler. 70 years down the road and people are still making movies about him. If Putin wants to dethrone the guy he still has a way to go.

True. But he also has access to the ability to exterminate the population of the world much more quickly than Hitler could've ever dreamed.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:25 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.


The short version of WW3 maybe. That is the one with all the artificial suns.

The long version, without the involvement of nukes, then it seems that if the US/NATO got involved, the Russian military wouldn't last very long.
 
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OA260
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:35 pm

Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:12 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
Russia won't shoot down a NATO supply plane. For one thing, I doubt they are flying over Ukraine. If they shoot it down over Poland, etc., I believe NATO would immediately institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would also include suppression of any AA assets.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:16 pm

OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.
 
11Bravo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:16 pm

OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !


I think it was "too late" two weeks ago. I guess that depends what you mean though. Too late for Putin to stay in power in the long run? Too late for Russia to rehabilitate its reputation in the international community? Too late for the Russian economy and Russian business to return to "normal". Too late for the Russian military to address serious operational short-comings and become effective and competent?

I think its too late for all those things and more. The situation is pretty hopeless at this point. That's particularly true for Ukraine. Several major cities have been, or will be, destroyed. It will take decades and hundreds of billions of dollars to "fix" that. Russia has sullied its reputation for at least a generation and barring wholesale regime change and unilateral disarmament, they will be shunned and excluded from the global economy indefinitely.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:16 pm

The smallest objective Putin had to have was to take over the Donbass, but from the maps I'm seeing he hasn't managed that. It's quite certain that the plan was a "political" win by taking Kiev in hours and putting in place a puppet government that would just give the Donbass to Russia, that's the only thing that makes sense.

Now that poses a problem because there is nothing to negotiate, Ukraine doesn't want to give anything, but even if it wanted to give a little, it can't give land that Russia hasn't even managed to conquer.

As for Israel, despite denials, it appears Bennett really told Zelensky to capitulate : https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701041
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:27 pm

Aesma wrote:
it appears Bennett really told Zelensky to capitulate :


I can see the next Israelis election with lots of references of "mail box". :lol:

by
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:11 pm

Speculations that the Belarus armed forces might be on the verge of a mutiny.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1502814202305654786

Belarus is at a breaking point. It will either enter the war on the side of Russia or the Belarus army will mutiny.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:45 pm

There has been a lot of speculation regarding the possibility of Russian fozen assets being formally seized to be given to Ukraine as war reparations or rebuilding funds. How serious of a possibility is this ? Is there a legal precedent for this ?
 
Alfons
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:48 pm

Aesma wrote:
As for Israel, despite denials, it appears Bennett really told Zelensky to capitulate : https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701041


your article from Jerusalem Post is from the 11th, here the one from the 12th:
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701064
 
YokoTsuno
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:24 pm

johns624 wrote:
YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
Russia won't shoot down a NATO supply plane. For one thing, I doubt they are flying over Ukraine. If they shoot it down over Poland, etc., I believe NATO would immediately institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would also include suppression of any AA assets.
Before all of this started people also claimed he would never invade Ukraine, yet that is exactly what he did. To me it is quite clear, Putin does what he thinks he has to do how irrational that may be. Hitler decided to go down fighting leaving Germany in total ruins, so why are people so sure that Putin is not in a similar state of mind?
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:37 pm

johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.


I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:42 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
johns624 wrote:
YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
Russia won't shoot down a NATO supply plane. For one thing, I doubt they are flying over Ukraine. If they shoot it down over Poland, etc., I believe NATO would immediately institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would also include suppression of any AA assets.
Before all of this started people also claimed he would never invade Ukraine, yet that is exactly what he did. To me it is quite clear, Putin does what he thinks he has to do how irrational that may be. Hitler decided to go down fighting leaving Germany in total ruins, so why are people so sure that Putin is not in a similar state of mind?
I don't think the Russian people feel the same as the Germans did. They aren't involved in a "total war".
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:42 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
johns624 wrote:
YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
Russia won't shoot down a NATO supply plane. For one thing, I doubt they are flying over Ukraine. If they shoot it down over Poland, etc., I believe NATO would immediately institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would also include suppression of any AA assets.
Before all of this started people also claimed he would never invade Ukraine, yet that is exactly what he did. To me it is quite clear, Putin does what he thinks he has to do how irrational that may be. Hitler decided to go down fighting leaving Germany in total ruins, so why are people so sure that Putin is not in a similar state of mind?


It's very irrational at the end of the day - Putin sees a historical figure of great import when he looks in the mirror. He constantly talks about Peter the Great in interviews. He loves the Russian people only to the extent they are useful to him - if they start opposing him in large numbers, he will crack down. Powerful people who live an insular existence inevitably start to see unhealthy structural changes in the brain - this has been confirmed via MRI in neurological research.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... r%20status.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90230146/po ... good-thing
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:49 pm

alberchico wrote:
If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears.


That scenario would be an abruptly change in leadership in Russia.

bt
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:49 pm

alberchico wrote:
johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.


I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.


Too late for that now. He has already lost and will be lucky if he can walk away at all and still be alive.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:59 pm

We know Putin was KGB, some background on his time there;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2_EFJLWA6o
 
victrola
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:59 pm

OA260 wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:


Oh no not Peppa Pig ! Thats it where is the nuclear button ;)


What did you expect when they got kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:03 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
alberchico wrote:
johns624 wrote:
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.


I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.


Too late for that now. He has already lost and will be lucky if he can walk away at all and still be alive.


I think the longer this goes on, the more trouble Russia is in. The Mideast and other countries may be able to pump enough oil to slowly tighten the sanctions on Russia. The plummeting ruble destroys the buying power of the Russians on the international markets, and as the weeks and months add up more and more economic issues will hit Russia.
 
Newark727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:11 pm

alberchico wrote:
I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.


The problem is that Ukraine giving away territory doesn't prevent Putin from firing a few more generals and trying again later - after all, it's not just the eastern parts of Ukraine and Crimea that are a fake country of "little Russians" by Putin's rhetoric, it's the whole thing. Just ceding land is a bad deal. Leaving Crimea without a fight bought Ukraine nothing, after all. Ceding land once the Russian army has been wrecked for a generation, or ceding land in exchange for a guaranteed NATO membership? Maybe worth considering.
Last edited by Newark727 on Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:11 pm

bikerthai wrote:
alberchico wrote:
If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears.


That scenario would be an abruptly change in leadership in Russia.

bt


And that would be better for everyone, because then both Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world can blame everything on Putin, and the sanctions can be rescinded much more easily, with some promises from Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine.

Whereas negotiating with Putin is complicated, when he has all to lose, and Ukraine is in a "nothing to lose" situation.
 
flipdewaf
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:41 pm

alberchico wrote:
johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.


I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.

Indeed, and a woman shouldn’t fight for her dignity against a rapist, that would of course prevent the bruises.

There is absolutely no clear indication that putin can even walk away from this, there’s as much chance he’ll be carried off in a casket.

Maybe the Ukrainian people value their freedom and believe it’s worth fighting for, the contempt putin has even for his own people would suggest that there is certainly no guarantee of peace for folk even if they do capitulate, the choice for Ukrainians is fight for freedom and you might die or give up your freedom and you might die painfully…

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
11Bravo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 5:52 pm

alberchico wrote:
johns624 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Reports on Sky News that there may have been some progress in the peace talks . I wonder if Putin realises along with his bully boys that they need to get out of this before its too late !
My take is that Russia would have to withdraw. Where I'm conflicted is in regards to Donbass and Crimea. While in a perfect world, Russia would have to withdraw from there, does Ukraine really want a bunch of pro-Russia people within its borders? They would just be the lure for another "we need to protect our Russians" campaign in the future.


I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.


I hope that type of appeasement is off the table. That is exactly the type of accommodation the Allies made with Germany in the 1930s, and I think it would have a similar outcome here. It would just be a matter of time before Putin invaded something else. The Baltics or perhaps Moldova, who knows? In my view it's completely unacceptable. Zero territorial concessions should be the policy of Ukraine and NATO. Russia has proven itself to be extraordinarily dangerous, aggressive, and uncivilized. It's not about pragmatism, it's about conviction. Putin must be forced to "just walk away" from his military adventurism.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:02 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
There is absolutely no clear indication that putin can even walk away from this, there’s as much chance he’ll be carried off in a casket.


It only takes one outlying governor in cooperation with a local military commander to say we no longer support the war to start the dominoes.

What this war may be showning is Russian will be spread thin with manpower and equipment lost, which I have no doubt will rekindle unrest again in places like Chechnya.

bt
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:07 pm

alberchico wrote:
I've been gettimg a lot of criticism for saying this, but Putin will never just walk away from this empty handed. Ukraine must be prepared to give up some territory in order to broker a peace. Crimea is lost forever, as well as the Donbas, it also looks like Russia have secured a land bridge around Crimea, guaranteeing a steady water supply. These territories will likely have to be conceded by Ukraine in any negotiations. If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears. I'm just being pragmatic.


It's easy to be "pragmatic" when you have no skin in the game.

When a mugger looks at you, do you pragmatically hand over your wallet and car keys? What about your wife and daughters? Are they worth putting up a fight for? Or do you pragmatically wave goodbye to them as well.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:09 pm

Crimea, which was very "pro-Russian" before the annexation, still needs its journalists silenced, political opponents imprisoned, Tatars "disappeared", etc. One more reason to not give any territory to Putin, it's just calling for a genocide there.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1 ... repression
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:30 pm

Aesma wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
alberchico wrote:
If anyone has a scenario in which Russia simply walks away empty handed, then I'm all ears.


That scenario would be an abruptly change in leadership in Russia.

bt


And that would be better for everyone, because then both Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world can blame everything on Putin, and the sanctions can be rescinded much more easily, with some promises from Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine.

Whereas negotiating with Putin is complicated, when he has all to lose, and Ukraine is in a "nothing to lose" situation.

In such a scenario - let's say Putin is killed - I would expect everyone to still want their pound of flesh, Putin is one person but just as we are now clamping down on all the oligarchs we can lay our hands on, I would expect the same for the military chiefs / leaders / supporters, then the politicians, their supporters, families etc etc etc, it will not stop at Putin and his immediate family, it will be the end of WWI all over again.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:34 pm

That would be more terrifying. A destabilized or fractured Russia with Nukes.

More worrisome than the current situation.

I guess we will just have to wait I till we reach that bridge.

bt
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:40 pm

par13del wrote:
Aesma wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

That scenario would be an abruptly change in leadership in Russia.

bt


And that would be better for everyone, because then both Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world can blame everything on Putin, and the sanctions can be rescinded much more easily, with some promises from Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine.

Whereas negotiating with Putin is complicated, when he has all to lose, and Ukraine is in a "nothing to lose" situation.

In such a scenario - let's say Putin is killed - I would expect everyone to still want their pound of flesh, Putin is one person but just as we are now clamping down on all the oligarchs we can lay our hands on, I would expect the same for the military chiefs / leaders / supporters, then the politicians, their supporters, families etc etc etc, it will not stop at Putin and his immediate family, it will be the end of WWI all over again.


I don't think so. At the end of WW1 France, a Great Power, had lost 1,4 million soldiers, many civilians, had countless disabled, and of course a whole chunk of the country was not even in ruins but nothing but mud, filled with shell remains, toxic chemicals, explosives... So huge reparations and the disarmament of Germany were in order.

Here the situation would be different, Ukraine isn't in a similar position, the war won't be a 4 years long world war (I hope), Russia won't be invaded or disarmed.

But yes, some form of Russian repentance would be expected, I guess.
 
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lugie
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:44 pm

YokoTsuno wrote:
johns624 wrote:
YokoTsuno wrote:
Looking at the direction this is going, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit that this is really the starting of WWIII. What if Russia really guns down a US supply plane? Nobody knows what Putin’s intentions are. The guy is 70 and may very well want to have his place in the history books.
Russia won't shoot down a NATO supply plane. For one thing, I doubt they are flying over Ukraine. If they shoot it down over Poland, etc., I believe NATO would immediately institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That would also include suppression of any AA assets.
Before all of this started people also claimed he would never invade Ukraine, yet that is exactly what he did. To me it is quite clear, Putin does what he thinks he has to do how irrational that may be. Hitler decided to go down fighting leaving Germany in total ruins, so why are people so sure that Putin is not in a similar state of mind?



The main problem with that course of action is that, once the ball gets rolling, there's a decent chance that there simply won't be any history books anymore for him to have a chapter dedicated to himself in.

A NATO supply plane being shot down over Polish/Romanian airspace would immediately trigger Article 5, pull all of NATO into the conflict, probably catapult the US into DEFCON 3 or 2.
This in turn the Russians would see as an "escalation" (completely omitting, as always, the part where they escalated first and NATO's acts are only a response) and then suddenly we might be hours away from staring down the abyss of nuclear escalation because Putin has fully gone of the rails and, while clearly being driven by irrational motives (c.f. his remarks on a "World without Russia not being a World worth existing"), probably still possesses a dangerous last bit of rationality which would most likely make him realize that, all own propaganda aside, the Russian Army in its current state would not hold a candle against NATO if the conflict were kept conventional.
NATO air forces would probably wipe out what remaining airworthy assets Russia has in the first 24-48 hours of such a confrontation. At that point, with your back against the wall and 70 years old, what do you do? Finally cave?

All that being said, I don't know what the right course of action is for the West.
Clearly, stopping arms shipments and leaving the Ukrainians out to fend for themselves while their Javelins run out and Russia (even if slowly, but eventually) manages to pick off the remaining Bayraktars should not be an option.

But the way a single irrational actor has seemingly destroyed the 60+ year-old game theoretic equilibrium behind MAD is scary.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 6:57 pm

GDB wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
From reports and videos circulating on Social Media, Russian forces aren't even trying to discern fleeing civilians from military any more. Launching shells at fleeing women and children, tanks repeatedly firing on civilian cars and buses - these are cowardly and indefensible war crimes. I'm starting to wonder if there is any way back for Russia after this, they will be pariahs for decades now.


Not a lot happened to Russia after Syria or Chechnya. Why is bombing civilians in Ukraine going to be different ?


Because it’s playing out in real time, the Russians unlike before don’t have a handle on the information war, the threat (by Putin) of escalation that could involve NATO.
I feel I have to ask, have you been following this? A lot is happening to Russia, the economic implosion, almost overnight and unprecended post cold war unity from the West and beyond that enabled this, Putin has always wanted to break up NATO, he’s rejunvinated it and turned German foreign and defence policy on it’s head.
Elsewhere was also not an obvious to restore the old Soviet empire, at least in part.


And there's talk of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:00 pm

art wrote:
I am struck by the absolute lack of reference to the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, in which

1. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook to respect the borders of Ukraine
2. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook never to attack Ukraine except in self defence

US and UK failed to act with sufficient determination to enforce respect of the borders of Ukraine when Russia seized control of Crimea. The same failure to act was repeated when the Russia seized control of the east of Ukraine. What reaction would Russia reasonably expect if it attempted to seize control of the rest of the country by force?

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetai ... 0280401fbb


Diplomacy and mere words mean nothing to a character like Putin. Elite-educated US diplomats have no clue about this. US characters went to private school. Each one could be robbed by a small child. Putin, by contrast, is ex KGB. He kills people.

The language that Putin or Xi understand is the language of force. Death. That is the only thing they understand. Words mean nothing to them.

I think it is hilarious that we have a bunch of law graduates on our side, thinking that lawyers actually solve problems with gangsters and thugs. A good man with a gun solves the problem of gangsters and thugs. Not poets or lawyers. Guns. Stamina, marksmanship, bravery. Loyal Allies supplying vast amounts of ammunition, electronics and launchers. That is what Ukraine needs. Then the lawyers can come later, after the real job is done. What good is a lawyer trying to reason with a thug?! In the real world, that lawyer dies.
Last edited by LCDFlight on Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:07 pm

Military surplus in the US is about to get scarce.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... nt-ukraine

bt
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 2322
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:18 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
art wrote:
I am struck by the absolute lack of reference to the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, in which

1. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook to respect the borders of Ukraine
2. Russian Federation, US, UK undertook never to attack Ukraine except in self defence

US and UK failed to act with sufficient determination to enforce respect of the borders of Ukraine when Russia seized control of Crimea. The same failure to act was repeated when the Russia seized control of the east of Ukraine. What reaction would Russia reasonably expect if it attempted to seize control of the rest of the country by force?

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetai ... 0280401fbb


Diplomacy and mere words mean nothing to a character like Putin. Elite-educated US diplomats have no clue about this. US characters went to private school. Each one could be robbed by a small child. Putin, by contrast, is ex KGB. He kills people.

The language that Putin or Xi understand is the language of force. Death. That is the only thing they understand. Words mean nothing to them.

I think it is hilarious that we have a bunch of law graduates on our side, thinking that lawyers actually solve problems with gangsters and thugs. A good man with a gun solves the problem of gangsters and thugs. Not poets or lawyers. Guns. Stamina, marksmanship, bravery. Loyal Allies supplying vast amounts of ammunition, electronics and launchers. That is what Ukraine needs. Then the lawyers can come later, after the real job is done. What good is a lawyer trying to reason with a thug?! In the real world, that lawyer dies.


North America and Europe prefers to be democracies who fight if they must.... not dictatorships who treat elections as an amusing game to be rigged.
The USA was governed by law graduates in 1939... yet it was triumphant in 1945. Those law graduates realised pretty fast in December 1941 what needed to be done
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:44 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/ ... 3969619973

According to this twitter thread that explains what pushed Putin to go into Ukraine, the author claims that concessions won't work. Well if Putin has no exit ramp that he's willing to take, then how the hell does this all end ? With all of Ukraine's cities turned into rubble ?
 
flipdewaf
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:45 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503066383969619973

According to this twitter thread that explains what pushed Putin to go into Ukraine, the author claims that concessions won't work. Well if Putin has no exit ramp that he's willing to take, then how the hell does this all end ? With all Ukraine's cities turned into rubble ?

Or putin in a wooden box (or hanging from a lamppost).

the most obvious reason [url=[url=https://www.bbcode.org/]here[/url]][/url]

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Last edited by flipdewaf on Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:56 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
And there's talk of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.


Yes, but nothing more then talks at the moment. Both Sweden and Finland have said that now is not that time to join Nato.

Finland:;
https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10013987

Sweden:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ande ... rhetslaget

At the same time Russia whines a little about a scenario where Sweden and Finland would join Nato.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ryss ... ot-sverige

If this won't make Sweden and Finland join Nato what would? I also wonder if there are some secret agreements/guarantees from US/UK*
in the case of an eventual war with Russia?

*Uk has already publicly declared support to Sweden though https://www.thelocal.se/20220304/britai ... -attacked/
 
astuteman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:12 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503066383969619973

According to this twitter thread that explains what pushed Putin to go into Ukraine, the author claims that concessions won't work. Well if Putin has no exit ramp that he's willing to take, then how the hell does this all end ? With all of Ukraine's cities turned into rubble ?


Got to go with Fred on this one. I suspect there may well be an "exit ramp" for Putin, but it will be one that will not be of his choosing.

I must admit to starting to believe that, despite the horrors inflicted on the Ukraine and its population, Putin has already "lost" this war.
Do I mean military defeat? Don't know.
But in the "macho" environment that surrounds the Russian dictatorship, to have launched such a huge assault on the Ukraine, and after 16 days, see virtually nothing for it, except a vivid image worldwide of how woefully inadequate Russian armed forces have been, for me is not survivable for Putin. I think the writing is already on the wall.

The latest comments from Ukrainian negotiators that "Russia is now being more realistic" make me wonder if the cracks are already appearing....

Rgds
 
aristoenigma
Posts: 323
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:21 pm

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... rlson-fox/

Telling. Is that meaning Fox is viewed as enabling by Russia? WTF
 
johns624
Posts: 5540
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:24 pm

LCDFlight wrote:

Not poets or lawyers.
Yet, probably the biggest Ukrainian national hero was a poet, Taras Shevchenko.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taras_Shevchenko
 
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scbriml
Posts: 21094
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:33 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503066383969619973

According to this twitter thread that explains what pushed Putin to go into Ukraine, the author claims that concessions won't work. Well if Putin has no exit ramp that he's willing to take, then how the hell does this all end ? With all of Ukraine's cities turned into rubble ?


There's always your preferred option - Ukraine just surrenders.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 21094
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Mar 13, 2022 8:34 pm

aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/exclusive-kremlin-putin-russia-ukraine-war-memo-tucker-carlson-fox/

Telling. Is that meaning Fox is viewed as enabling by Russia? WTF


I mean, I knew Carlson was a wanker, but I hadn't realised he was considered a useful wanker.

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