AtomicGarden wrote:

Russia might become a truly democratic state in 20 or 30 years. I might live to see that.

Nobody alive will ever see that. Russia has a 1,200 year history of being a totalitarian state; the people have never had anything but a strongman at the top: that's all they know. If there ever were fair elections, I assume that the people would vote in another strongman who would promptly cancel further elections.

Russia may have done the world a favor by making this blunder, this fiasco doesn't make the strongman type (Putin) look so all powerful anymore. Maybe the pendulum will begin to swing back in places like Brazil, Philippines, Hungary and in places like Arkansas.

Vintage wrote:

AtomicGarden wrote:

Russia might become a truly democratic state in 20 or 30 years. I might live to see that.

Nobody alive will ever see that. Russia has a 1,200 year history of being a totalitarian state; the people have never had anything but a strongman at the top: that's al they know. If there ever were fair elections, I assume that the people would vote in another strongman who would promptly cancel further elections.

Russia may have done the world a favor by making this blunder, this fiasco doesn't make the strongman type (Putin) look so all powerful anymore. Maybe the pendulum will begin to swing back in places like Brazil, Philippines, Hungary and in places like Arkansas.

Germany...
Japan...

planewasted wrote:

Germany...
Japan...

Yes, but look at what they had to go through to get there.

AtomicGarden wrote:

11Bravo wrote:

scbriml wrote:

I don't think that Russia will have the capabilities to pay reparations to Ukraine if it remains heavily sanctioned. A crippled economy cannot generate wealth. Sanctions could be lifted relatively quickly if all troops get the hell out of the country and Putin is removed from power and put on trial. That's the first condition, I say.

A mandatory levy on the export of all natural resources should do it - even if only Western (aligned) countries play ball, this could raise billions per year.

Per example, in return for sanctions being eased on certain resources, Russia will receive 80% of the market-rate transaction value for those resources, whilst the remaining 20% is transferred into a fund to rebuild Ukraine.

wingman wrote:

It makes me wonder if the KGB is as incompetent as Russia's armed forces.

The botched Salisbury assassination attempt and multiple recent poisoning failures suggest their best days are probably behind them.

Vintage wrote:

planewasted wrote:

Germany...
Japan...

Yes, but look at what they had to go through to get there.

So Ukraine will be Russia's turning point. You can always hope.

The west can always facilitate by linking easing of sanctions with free/fair elections.

bt

Germany and Japan had conquerors come in and write new constitutions for them while they were occupied by their victors. (And where that was not the case, as in East Germany, they continued with a different, but still totalitarian government.)

Russia, will still control the news to its citizens after this is all over.

There is no hope in this regard.

johns624 wrote:

wingman wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

Putin is so KGB he connived all of this? It makes me wonder if the KGB is as incompetent as Russia's armed forces. Maybe they, too, foresaw all of this and hence why their top officials haven't been seen in public for three weeks. Or maybe they're too busy scenario-planning the next 50 years of their equal partnership with China.

I think they are planning more unsuccessful poisonings of dissidents...

... and peace negotiators. They seem to have it in for negotiators.

AtomicGarden wrote:

I don't think that Russia will have the capabilities to pay reparations to Ukraine if it remains heavily sanctioned. A crippled economy cannot generate wealth. Sanctions could be lifted relatively quickly if all troops get the hell out of the country and Putin is removed from power and put on trial. That's the first condition, I say.

I wasn’t really thinking of “reparations” so much as restitution. The West has frozen more than a trillion dollars of Russian assets. We should just seize them and start fixing Ukraine. If there’s anything left, we’ll return it.

Russian-language Ukrainian news outlet Bagnet said joining the legion is voluntary and requires Russian prisoners of war to apply in writing. The troops are then vetted by Ukraine's security services and counter intelligence.

It reported on Wednesday that both privates and officers were among the "several hundred" Russians who had signed up for the legion.

Well now, more drama

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine ... X1ZpV2xtag


If they talk of hundreds of volunteers, then Russian POWs must be in the thousands?

bt

Vintage wrote:

AtomicGarden wrote:

Russia might become a truly democratic state in 20 or 30 years. I might live to see that.

Nobody alive will ever see that. Russia has a 1,200 year history of being a totalitarian state; the people have never had anything but a strongman at the top: that's all they know.

So? Europe was feudal for hundreds of years, now it's not. Slavery was acceptable for thousands, now it's not. Homo sapiens didn't have language for millions of years, now they do.

Russia 1200 years ago has almost 0 to do with today. Russia in the past century does (though near and mid history more than 1922.)

I'm not saying I see Russia going democratic overnight, but I don't think anyone is. But Russia doing something 1200 for years doesn't mean it'll do it for another 1200 or 120000 years

DeltaMD90 wrote:

Russia 1200 years ago has almost 0 to do with today. Russia in the past century does. I'm not saying I see Russia going democratic overnight, but I don't think anyone is. But Russia doing something 1200 for years doesn't mean it'll do it for another 1200 or 120000 years

Europe has had diverse "governments", Russia has always been under the thumb of a single tyrant.
Europe has experienced the Reformation and the French revolutionary era, there has been nothing like that in Russia.

If the 1,200 year claim was just rhetoric, it is still true that Russia has had a continuum of tyrannical leadership since it's inception, and the last three eras (the Czars, the Bolsheviks and now the Putin era are almost 500 years of unbroken strongman rule) provided no breathing room for democratic thought or process.

The Russian people as a group like tough guys, it's deeply embedded in their national psyche. To believe that they're going to change and blossom into a democracy is to perpetuate the delusion that got us to where we are now (with them threatening nuclear war if they don't get their way).

I'm not saying we should set out to destroy them or go to war with them. But I do believe we should understand them and rinse ourselves of any delusions that their country is going to join Western Europe as any kind of a partner at any time within our lifetimes, or the lives of our children.

Vintage wrote:

The Russian people as a group like tough guys, it's deeply embedded in their national psyche. To believe that they're going to change and blossom into a democracy is to perpetuate the delusion that got us to where we are now (with them threatening nuclear war if they don't get their way).

Why not? You could say now about the toughness of the Ukrainians as well, and they were transitioning to a functioning democracy rather well when it was rudely interrupted.

Vintage wrote:

But I do believe we should understand them and rinse ourselves of any delusions that their country is going to join Western Europe as any kind of a partner at any time within our lifetimes, or the lives of our children.

In this world of cyber-speed media, I can environment it in my lifetime.

Better chance than China.

bt

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... se-systems

I have no idea if this is true, but it made me chuckle. The level of incompetence of the "mighty" Red Army is stunning.

alberchico wrote:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509287796065845250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1509287796065845250%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2F44981%2Fukraine-captured-one-of-russias-newest-air-defense-systems

I have no idea if this is true, but it made me chuckle. The level of incompetence of the "mighty" Red Army is stunning.

That’s very bad. that’s a terrible fate. Incompetence but very sad too.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 5a9os.html

Now it is said that soldiers are refusing to carry out orders.

And all the yes men Putin has surrounded himself with seem too scared to tell him the truth.

bikerthai wrote:

You could say now about the toughness of the Ukrainians as well, and they were transitioning to a functioning democracy rather well when it was rudely interrupted.

That's a different kind of toughness. The best I can describe it would be that the Russian psyche craves for a harsh father figure for a leader: they always have. (We have our share of that too, look at the MAGA crowd).

Ukraine was on the right path before the invasion; but IMO they weren't very far along it. The Ukrainian oligarchs were still waiting in the wings for their chance to take over again. This war may have saved Ukraine from that fate.

Vintage wrote:

The best I can describe it would be that the Russian psyche craves for a harsh father figure for a leader:

You mean similar to the Latin American machismo culture? But even there things are changing.

Vintage wrote:

Ukraine was on the right path before the invasion; but IMO they weren't very far along it. The Ukrainian oligarchs were still waiting in the wings for their chance to take over again.

It is the same in many places. You can say oligarchs are controlling US, Japanese, Korean democracies as well. Two step forward and one step back.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

similar to the Latin American machismo culture?

no

bikerthai wrote:

You can say oligarchs are controlling US, Japanese, Korean democracies

That would be using an out of context definition of oligarchy.

SITREP: Russia is digging in with the goal of annexing the Donbas region and the land bridge to Crimea. If the West does not step up then I do not see how Ukraine can prevent this from happening. The longer this takes, the more time Putin has to start handing out Russian passports and wheel in settlers from other parts of Russia. Peace talks are just a distraction.

wingman wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

william wrote:

This goes against the narrative put forth in the media. From the NYtimes Editorial, an interesting take and one I have thought of too with Putin being ex KGB.

Putin is so KGB he connived all of this? It makes me wonder if the KGB is as incompetent as Russia's armed forces. Maybe they, too, foresaw all of this and hence why their top officials haven't been seen in public for three weeks. Or maybe they're too busy scenario-planning the next 50 years of their equal partnership with China.

Part of is what I sometimes refer to as the Darth Vader school of management that eventually permeates during a authoritarian regime.

Nobody wants to upset the big boss because they know that if they bring bad news, or things that the big boss doesn't want to hear, their heads (and that of their families) are literally on the line.

So what ends up happening? Reports and news gets doctored and rewritten to keep the big boss happy. The big boss gets fed a constant stream of what he wants to hear, instead of stuff he needs to hear. As a result, in the mind of the big boss, everything is going smooth, and to plan. And of course, when things go wrong, they go really wrong because nobody with the authority to make a decision was being fed correct and accurate data to begin with...

AeroVega wrote:

SITREP: Russia is digging in with the goal of annexing the Donbas region and the land bridge to Crimea. If the West does not step up then I do not see how Ukraine can prevent this from happening. The longer this takes, the more time Putin has to start handing out Russian passports and wheel in settlers from other parts of Russia. Peace talks are just a distraction.

I would watch what happens if the war keeps going on past late April 2022.

Why? Because the current crop of conscripts in the Russian military, including those that are in Ukraine are set to reach their service end date. And the only way for Putin to keep the current crop of conscripts in active service is to declare war or a state of emergency to keep those men in military service. If Putin doesn't, they will try and leave.

Of course, Putin's officers can try to stop them, probably by shooting any 'deserters'; however, if they keep their guns, the conscripts can mutiny, shoot back and leave anyway. We have seen this before in the Russian army at war in 1917, which was one of the major causes of the Russian Revolution.

And of course, there's no way for the next group of conscripts to be made ready in time to replace the conscripts that are due to be released from service; they haven't been conscripted yet, and basic training takes weeks; he'll be lucky to have the new conscript class of 2022 ready in time by June. Even then, I would doubt the quality of the troops being sent forward because they would be so green and inexperienced, which of course means that the performance at the front lines will suffer even more.

Vintage wrote:

Germany and Japan had conquerors come in and write new constitutions for them while they were occupied by their victors. .

I am not sure about Japan, but the Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentarischer_Rat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt_Documents
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rittersturz-Konferenz (no englisch Wiki Entry)

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 79364.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501 ... 96388.html

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

In 1949,Germany was still very much an occupied country, the people who drafted the new constitution would have needed the approval or at least not had the disapproval of the Americans, French, British. This would be an interesting thing to know some detail about, I'm sure there are books written about it, but I'll pass on that. (Maybe Cliff's notes.)

It was similar in Japan, except they had MacArthur; I think he lifted parts of the US constitution verbatim..

tommy1808 wrote:

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

It is not in the West's interests to see Russia collapse, so it won't happen.
We can't allow Siberia and the Eastern part of Russia to fall to the Chinese.

tommy1808 wrote:

Vintage wrote:

Germany and Japan had conquerors come in and write new constitutions for them while they were occupied by their victors. .

I am not sure about Japan, but the Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentarischer_Rat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt_Documents
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rittersturz-Konferenz (no englisch Wiki Entry)

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 79364.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501 ... 96388.html

best regards
Thomas

Very interesting those thereaderapp articles, also a rebuttal to the idea that sanctions are somehow 'soft', they never work fast but can affect everything in a nation.
On their own of course they never could blunt the invasion of Ukraine, that's on the brave and resourceful defenders, the weapons deliveries and the renewed unity of Putin's enemies, the US, EU, NATO.

Vintage wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

In 1949,Germany was still very much an occupied country, the people who drafted the new constitution would have needed the approval or at least not had the disapproval of the Americans, French, British. This would be an interesting thing to know some detail about, I'm sure there are books written about it, but I'll pass on that. (Maybe Cliff's notes.)

which is not the same as having it written for them.... and the basic law quite clearly is a lessons learned version form the Weimar Republic consititution.

tommy1808 wrote:

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

It is not in the West's interests to see Russia collapse, so it won't happen.
We can't allow Siberia and the Eastern part of Russia to fall to the Chinese.

well, there isn´t much the west can do to mend the existing fracture lines.

GDB wrote:

Very interesting those thereaderapp articles, also a rebuttal to the idea that sanctions are somehow 'soft', they never work fast but can affect everything in a nation.
On their own of course they never could blunt the invasion of Ukraine, that's on the brave and resourceful defenders, the weapons deliveries and the renewed unity of Putin's enemies, the US, EU, NATO.

Exaclty. I often jokingly state that Russias know how base is so degraded that they only competitive non-raw material they have significant exports of is cut wood, but the export volumes do actually pan that out.
Looking at economic complexity, Russia is less capable than Ukrain, Belarus or Indonesia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Complexity_Index

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

Vintage wrote:

Germany and Japan had conquerors come in and write new constitutions for them while they were occupied by their victors. .

I am not sure about Japan, but the Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentarischer_Rat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt_Documents
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rittersturz-Konferenz (no englisch Wiki Entry)

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 79364.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501 ... 96388.html

best regards
Thomas

The thing about 'there might not be a Russia when this us done'

Wasn't it RasPutin who said that without Russia there can't be a World?

So how far along these lines would he go? Or is it just in his mind that 'without me there cannot be a Russia' like Louis XIV.

ReverseFlow wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Vintage wrote:

Germany and Japan had conquerors come in and write new constitutions for them while they were occupied by their victors. .

I am not sure about Japan, but the Germany only had some key points a new constitution needed to have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentarischer_Rat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt_Documents
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rittersturz-Konferenz (no englisch Wiki Entry)

As for Russia, they simply may not be a Russia when this is done.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 79364.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501 ... 96388.html

best regards
Thomas

The thing about 'there might not be a Russia when this us done'

Wasn't it RasPutin who said that without Russia there can't be a World?

So how far along these lines would he go? Or is it just in his mind that 'without me there cannot be a Russia' like Louis XIV.

probably just his mind...

Also, the US spends 33 Billion per Year to keep its, smaller, nuclear arsenal useable and able to deliver: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-0 ... Forces.pdf

There is no reason to believe that Russias nuclear deterrent is any more real that its enormous Army combat effective. Not that 10 or even just 1% success rate would be anything to just shrugg off, but there quite litterally wouldn´t be a Russia after that. And the russian Generals actually in charge of those weapons know that, even if Putin doesn´t.

best regards
Thomas

Vintage wrote:

bikerthai wrote:
You can say oligarchs are controlling US, Japanese, Korean democracies

That would be using an out of context definition of oligarchy.

Understood that the context is not the same. The point is that even in a democracy, those with money can influence political leaders to facilitate their own gains. So Russian oligarchy can morph to the western model and Russia can become a democracy with only small change in economic power redistribution.

bt

william wrote:

This goes against the narrative put forth in the media. From the NYtimes Editorial, an interesting take and one I have thought of too with Putin being ex KGB.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-pu ... calculate/

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

Even if that was true, that would still be a massive miscalculation, because its main customer now wants out of its energy as soon as possible, and out of fossil energy quicker than ever. "Energy dominance" when that energy is dirty doesn't help much in a world of renewable energies, relying on technology.

Aesma wrote:

Even if that was true, that would still be a massive miscalculation,

That is why it's in the opinion section. It was interesting for me to go back and see videos of predictions by two India Generals in the early part of the war. There were insights as well as completely wrong predictions.

bt

DeltaMD90 wrote:

Vintage wrote:

AtomicGarden wrote:

Russia might become a truly democratic state in 20 or 30 years. I might live to see that.

Nobody alive will ever see that. Russia has a 1,200 year history of being a totalitarian state; the people have never had anything but a strongman at the top: that's all they know.

So? Europe was feudal for hundreds of years, now it's not. Slavery was acceptable for thousands, now it's not. Homo sapiens didn't have language for millions of years, now they do.

Russia 1200 years ago has almost 0 to do with today. Russia in the past century does (though near and mid history more than 1922.)

I'm not saying I see Russia going democratic overnight, but I don't think anyone is. But Russia doing something 1200 for years doesn't mean it'll do it for another 1200 or 120000 years

While the countries of Europe were going through the Renaissance and the Protestant Reformation, Russia was under the yoke of the Mongols. This is the major difference between Russia and the rest of Europe.

Aesma wrote :
Even if that was true, that would still be a massive miscalculation, because its main customer now wants out of its energy as soon as possible, and out of fossil energy quicker than ever. "Energy dominance" when that energy is dirty doesn't help much in a world of renewable energies, relying on technology.

And let me add that Russia even needed billions of investment of Western companies to be able to export all that gas and oil on that actual level. If all these European ( or most of them ) get independend of it, to whom he will sell all these stuff ? China ? I guess not because for them the most important thing is economy power and they fear sanctions of the west more than they love to deal with Russia ! Which other countries could buy the amount like Europe , USA and allies does ? Simple nobody ! Financing all his military stuff and actions will become a nightmare for him and will tap in the same trap like at the end of the cold war : Military build-up to bankruptcy, pure Russian population

flyingclrs727 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

TokyoImperialPa wrote:

In every political stance that I can think of, what aspect of the EU is so aggressively obsessed with keeping breakaway regions that do not want to be part of neither the EU nor Ukraine? How does it even benefit Ukraine to hold onto regions that do not want to contribute to the wider country? The traditional view would have been to hold a referendum and allow for self-determination.

And whether this is a textbook win for Russia will depend on who is writing the article. The view even in places like Israel and Al Jazeera (one of the most left wing media outlet in the Middle East) have been more neutral on the topic and often the war is portrayed as being a war over NATO expansion and Donbass. If Russia gets the following then it could be seen as goal accomplished.

And furthermore there is a widespread few held in Asia that the biggest benefactor will be China. If you ask whether Russia or Ukraine will win the war, you may get a vague response. But if you were to ask who the biggest benefactor would be, then there would be a more confident "China" as a reply, and if you were to ask about the opposite then the US would be common.

Russia will not win this war. The sanctions will remain in place for a long time. Ukraine , Finland and Sweden will have moved closer to NATO. Breakaway regions may realize that they are running towards disaster and vote in referendums to back out of a Russian merger.

The EU doesn't want to "Keep" Breakaway regions. They want them to have "Self Determnation" with no gun point referendum's . So what Russia has done is attempt to "Keep" a buffer zone that is slowly slipping out of their hands due to inefficiency in government rule and economic prosperity.

There is no doubt that Russia values Ukraine It was always the breadbasket of the USSR, and it provides southern export access to the Suez/Med.

However instead of working with Ukraine, Russia views it as a lost child. That is not beneficial for the future of Ukraine or Russia. It is not in the best interests of the rest of the world to feed Russia's maniac views.

Russia will remain under sanctions for a long time to come, and I don't think anything short of a pull out of Ukraine and all occupied regions will satisfy the international community at this point.

Actually, the EU, US, and others behind the sanctions could increase their requirements to decrease or eliminate sanctions the longer this war against Ukraine lasts. I could see them wanting the Russians out of Kaliningrad and Transnistria as a start.

That is a discussion for later on. At the very least, Putin and Russia overplayed a losing hand. There is a lot of death and suffering for what turns out to be bad information. The sanctions will remain for quite some time.

11Bravo wrote:

AtomicGarden wrote:

I don't think that Russia will have the capabilities to pay reparations to Ukraine if it remains heavily sanctioned. A crippled economy cannot generate wealth. Sanctions could be lifted relatively quickly if all troops get the hell out of the country and Putin is removed from power and put on trial. That's the first condition, I say.

I wasn’t really thinking of “reparations” so much as restitution. The West has frozen more than a trillion dollars of Russian assets. We should just seize them and start fixing Ukraine. If there’s anything left, we’ll return it.

Last week I heard on the radio (Dutch news station) that this will be investigated. There is 600 Billion Euro from Russia (State) frozen and about (at least) 50 percent may be used for Ukraine post war.

marcelh wrote:

11Bravo wrote:

AtomicGarden wrote:

I don't think that Russia will have the capabilities to pay reparations to Ukraine if it remains heavily sanctioned. A crippled economy cannot generate wealth. Sanctions could be lifted relatively quickly if all troops get the hell out of the country and Putin is removed from power and put on trial. That's the first condition, I say.

I wasn’t really thinking of “reparations” so much as restitution. The West has frozen more than a trillion dollars of Russian assets. We should just seize them and start fixing Ukraine. If there’s anything left, we’ll return it.

Last week I heard on the radio (Dutch news station) that this will be investigated. There is 600 Billion Euro from Russia (State) frozen and about (at least) 50 percent may be used for Ukraine post war.

A review of the Greek banking crisis can provide some recent history on seizing Russian funds in western banks and the reactions to same.

Aesma wrote:

william wrote:

This goes against the narrative put forth in the media. From the NYtimes Editorial, an interesting take and one I have thought of too with Putin being ex KGB.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-pu ... calculate/

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

Even if that was true, that would still be a massive miscalculation, because its main customer now wants out of its energy as soon as possible, and out of fossil energy quicker than ever. "Energy dominance" when that energy is dirty doesn't help much in a world of renewable energies, relying on technology.

I agree. Europe is planning an eventual move away from Russian gas and oil that will have devastating consequences for the country in the long run. I wonder if Putin mistakenly assumed that the E.U. was so divided that it would never be able to work collectively on such a grand scale. I also wonder if he believed the nonsense that the right wing media spews in the U.S regarding Biden being a weak old man who supposedly suffers from cognitive decline. I just don't understand how he seriously thought that he could swallow up an entire country without a provoking a fierce reaction.

par13del wrote:

marcelh wrote:

11Bravo wrote:

I wasn’t really thinking of “reparations” so much as restitution. The West has frozen more than a trillion dollars of Russian assets. We should just seize them and start fixing Ukraine. If there’s anything left, we’ll return it.

Last week I heard on the radio (Dutch news station) that this will be investigated. There is 600 Billion Euro from Russia (State) frozen and about (at least) 50 percent may be used for Ukraine post war.

A review of the Greek banking crisis can provide some recent history on seizing Russian funds in western banks and the reactions to same.

It was more specifically during the Cypriot financial crisis that Russian funds got seized.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%932013_Cypriot_financial_crisis

alberchico wrote:

Aesma wrote:

william wrote:

This goes against the narrative put forth in the media. From the NYtimes Editorial, an interesting take and one I have thought of too with Putin being ex KGB.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-pu ... calculate/

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

Even if that was true, that would still be a massive miscalculation, because its main customer now wants out of its energy as soon as possible, and out of fossil energy quicker than ever. "Energy dominance" when that energy is dirty doesn't help much in a world of renewable energies, relying on technology.

I agree. Europe is planning an eventual move away from Russian gas and oil that will have devastating consequences for the country in the long run. I wonder if Putin mistakenly assumed that the E.U. was so divided that it would never be able to work collectively on such a grand scale. I also wonder if he believed the nonsense that the right wing media spews in the U.S regarding Biden being a weak old man who supposedly suffers from cognitive decline. I just don't understand how he seriously thought that he could swallow up an entire country without a provoking a fierce reaction.

The success of Brexit, Trump and the neo-populists (on both sides of the spectrum) that he nurtured probably emboldened him and made him believe his own narrative that the west was weak and corrupt.

william wrote:

This goes against the narrative put forth in the media. From the NYtimes Editorial, an interesting take and one I have thought of too with Putin being ex KGB.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-pu ... calculate/

"What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

"The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors."

Wow, trying to grab at anything they can!

If it has not been mentioned before here, I recommend YouTube blogger Operator Starsky.

He's an Ukraine soldier blogger who seems to have some good insight into the war.

Also have a dry sense of humor. When he talked about the capturing Chernobol Nuclear Zone. His joke about glowing Russian soldier was quite prophetic.

bt

tomcat wrote:

par13del wrote:

marcelh wrote:

Last week I heard on the radio (Dutch news station) that this will be investigated. There is 600 Billion Euro from Russia (State) frozen and about (at least) 50 percent may be used for Ukraine post war.

A review of the Greek banking crisis can provide some recent history on seizing Russian funds in western banks and the reactions to same.

It was more specifically during the Cypriot financial crisis that Russian funds got seized.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%932013_Cypriot_financial_crisis

I stand corrected, thanks.

bikerthai wrote:

Russian-language Ukrainian news outlet Bagnet said joining the legion is voluntary and requires Russian prisoners of war to apply in writing. The troops are then vetted by Ukraine's security services and counter intelligence.

It reported on Wednesday that both privates and officers were among the "several hundred" Russians who had signed up for the legion.

Well now, more drama

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine ... X1ZpV2xtag


If they talk of hundreds of volunteers, then Russian POWs must be in the thousands?

bt

I read about that earlier, and damn, that's really fucked up. I can understand laying down your arms, going AWOL, desertion, even running over your shit-for-brains CO, but shooting your fellow conscripts? they must really be deseperate.

bikerthai wrote:

Vintage wrote:

The best I can describe it would be that the Russian psyche craves for a harsh father figure for a leader:

You mean similar to the Latin American machismo culture? But even there things are changing.

Vintage wrote:

Ukraine was on the right path before the invasion; but IMO they weren't very far along it. The Ukrainian oligarchs were still waiting in the wings for their chance to take over again.

It is the same in many places. You can say oligarchs are controlling US, Japanese, Korean democracies as well. Two step forward and one step back.

bt

We latins love our populist leaders indeed. Even if most are flawed democracies, I would love a shift from presidential government to one parlamentarian. So coming from a citizen in a sometimes slightly fascist country, I do think Russia could make slow but steady changes into a more free state.

AtomicGarden wrote:

but shooting your fellow conscripts? they must really be deseperate.

There is previous precedence. During WWIi captured Italian POW served in the US as service members in logistics. This is different than POW labor.

So Russian POW volunteer can serve behind the line as support troops and not have to shoot their comrades.

That I agree may be too much.

bt

These Russian volunteers may be Ukrainians or have Ukrainian ancestry (or other "second class Russians" ). They figured they were in the wrong camp.

On March 31st 2022 Russian forces destroyed the Dam behind the Oskil Water Reservoir
49°10'33.79"N 37°28'29.03"E
https://9gag.com/gag/aBnPrQO

So I guess they're trying to drain a 150 mile long swamp that extends far into Russian territory.
This makes no sense to me.

Vintage wrote:

On March 31st 2022 Russian forces destroyed the Dam behind the Oskil Water Reservoir
49°10'33.79"N 37°28'29.03"E
https://9gag.com/gag/aBnPrQO

So I guess they're trying to drain a 150 mile long swamp that extends far into Russian territory.
This makes no sense to me.

Destroying essential infrastructure does make a lot of sense to me.

marcelh wrote:

Vintage wrote:

On March 31st 2022 Russian forces destroyed the Dam behind the Oskil Water Reservoir
49°10'33.79"N 37°28'29.03"E
https://9gag.com/gag/aBnPrQO

So I guess they're trying to drain a 150 mile long swamp that extends far into Russian territory.
This makes no sense to me.

Destroying essential infrastructure does make a lot of sense to me.

Well eventually they will have to pay for it all, but at this point it makes no sense. It provides drinking water, and a host of flood controls, that will eventually cost the Russian army more resources and time, especially as they flood the areas they are trying to contain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ussia.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60952125

Was this a false flag attack or a real Ukrainian operation ?

alberchico wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10675075/Ukrainian-attack-helicopters-strike-oil-facility-INSIDE-Russia.html

Was this a false flag attack or a real Ukrainian operation ?

I'm guessing the former. How would 2 Ukrainian helos fly over the Russian controlled areas of Ukraine north / north east of Kharkiv AND then fly 35km over Russian territory unopposed.... and then make it back?

Virtual737 wrote:

alberchico wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10675075/Ukrainian-attack-helicopters-strike-oil-facility-INSIDE-Russia.html

Was this a false flag attack or a real Ukrainian operation ?

I'm guessing the former. How would 2 Ukrainian helos fly over the Russian controlled areas of Ukraine north / north east of Kharkiv AND then fly 35km over Russian territory unopposed.... and then make it back?

Probably cause everybody believes everything is going as planned and Ukraine welcomes russians with open arms?

I'm also quite sure they thought Ukraine will only fight defensively.

False flag or ballsy attack, russians will get a taste of rockets sooner or later.

PixelPilot wrote:

Virtual737 wrote:

alberchico wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10675075/Ukrainian-attack-helicopters-strike-oil-facility-INSIDE-Russia.html

Was this a false flag attack or a real Ukrainian operation ?

I'm guessing the former. How would 2 Ukrainian helos fly over the Russian controlled areas of Ukraine north / north east of Kharkiv AND then fly 35km over Russian territory unopposed.... and then make it back?

Probably cause everybody believes everything is going as planned and Ukraine welcomes russians with open arms?

I'm also quite sure they thought Ukraine will only fight defensively.

False flag or ballsy attack, russians will get a taste of rockets sooner or later.

Excellent. In that case, off to Sochi next to bomb the shit out of Putin's mega mansion.