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Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:37 pm

astuteman wrote:
It's uncomfortable and perhaps even scary, but we absolutely have to call Putin's bluff, and be hard-over about it too.
We have to make it absolutely clear to him that there is no winning scenario whatever he threatens to do.
That is NOT the same as being a "western power mad warmonger". It the opposite actually.

Being wet and pansy is virtually guaranteed to end up with more people being killed and displaced than taking the hard line.
I think there's plenty of examples in history to support that

Given how Putin is acting that is the inevitable conclusion, indeed.

Taking a hard line also clearly indicates to Putin's underlings that there is nothing but pain to be expected by continuing to execute Putin's war. And this is now a necessity.

Clarity about this on both sides is more likely to avoid at least some of the bloodshed than appearing limp and giving Putin the illusion that his intimidation tactics could actually improve his own fortunes.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:07 pm

marcelh wrote:
There is a lot of room between “not frightened” and the enthusiasm some people over here are talking about nukes. This war is escalating beyond the Cuba crisis.
Nobody here is talking about it with "enthusiasm". We merely decide how serious the threat really is. How many times have the Russians made this threat? Yet, they've never said in concrete terms what threat would cause them to use nukes. That's because they don't even know.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:08 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Kind of perverse, but I see one way to prevent use of tactical nuke is a long grind of a war with Ukraine slowly degrading the Russian army drip by drip until they get tired and go home.

A sudden offensive that smash the Russian line causing chaos would more likely cause panic and bring the nukes in to play.

bt
I agree.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:15 pm

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
There is a lot of room between “not frightened” and the enthusiasm some people over here are talking about nukes. This war is escalating beyond the Cuba crisis.
Nobody here is talking about it with "enthusiasm". We merely decide how serious the threat really is. How many times have the Russians made this threat? Yet, they've never said in concrete terms what threat would cause them to use nukes. That's because they don't even know.

The official line had always been "when the existence of Russia is threatened".

But right now they are not acting like a somewhat responsible nuclear power but only like a bunch of thugs bent on getting their way no matter what, even though they themselves know they have maneuvered themselves into a weak and untenable situation.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:49 pm

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
There is a lot of room between “not frightened” and the enthusiasm some people over here are talking about nukes. This war is escalating beyond the Cuba crisis.
Nobody here is talking about it with "enthusiasm". We merely decide how serious the threat really is. How many times have the Russians made this threat? Yet, they've never said in concrete terms what threat would cause them to use nukes. That's because they don't even know.

The Russians haven’t been cornered yet, especially at the Ukrainian front. At the moment they have the opinion they are cornered, don’t be surprised they are going to use tactical nukes one way or another.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:58 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
There is a lot of room between “not frightened” and the enthusiasm some people over here are talking about nukes. This war is escalating beyond the Cuba crisis.
Nobody here is talking about it with "enthusiasm". We merely decide how serious the threat really is. How many times have the Russians made this threat? Yet, they've never said in concrete terms what threat would cause them to use nukes. That's because they don't even know.

The Russians haven’t been cornered yet, especially at the Ukrainian front. At the moment they have the opinion they are cornered, don’t be surprised they are going to use tactical nukes one way or another.
They'll always have a line of retreat. They are just realizing that their standard "threats" aren't scaring anyone anymore, so they'll trying to spice them up. All they have to do is withdraw from their illegal invasion. You're the only one who thinks that the West is the side that is escalating.
As far as their claims about a proxy war, isn't what they did in Korea and Vietnam, among other places?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:02 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
There is a lot of room between “not frightened” and the enthusiasm some people over here are talking about nukes. This war is escalating beyond the Cuba crisis.
Nobody here is talking about it with "enthusiasm". We merely decide how serious the threat really is. How many times have the Russians made this threat? Yet, they've never said in concrete terms what threat would cause them to use nukes. That's because they don't even know.

The Russians haven’t been cornered yet, especially at the Ukrainian front. At the moment they have the opinion they are cornered, don’t be surprised they are going to use tactical nukes one way or another.

Would the general(s) concerned be prepared to follow an order from above (political leadership) to go nuclear tactically? I hope not.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:05 pm

marcelh wrote:
The Russians haven’t been cornered yet, especially at the Ukrainian front. At the moment they have the opinion they are cornered, don’t be surprised they are going to use tactical nukes one way or another.

When you are stalled all along a 500 mile line, where do you use the tactical nuke?
And for what purpose?
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:18 pm

cpd wrote:
marcelh wrote:
cpd wrote:

I don’t believe in all that nonsense, when you are gone that’s it.

These types are just playing it up for the international audience, if it really happened they would be terrified.

They don’t scare me.

Let me guess: you aren’t in Europe?


I’m well within reach of Russian ICBMs and my country is supplying weapons (including artillery), so we are just as much a potential target as you are.

Never heard of tactical nukes? If those are going to be deployed and we have an atmospheric stream from the south East, a huge part of Europe is under threat of nuclear fall-out. That is much more a threat and something you don’t have to worry about.

can’t even walk, so if it all goes wrong there will be no running to fallout bunkers (which we don’t have here anyway).

Worrying about Russian nuclear blackmail just encourages them more. If it happens, that’s it and Russia will also be a smoking radioactive mess as well. Mr Putin, do you want to take that chance?

IMHO only thinking about nuclear ICBMs makes it clear you miss the whole picture. But agree to disagree.

Putin might not be around for that much longer:

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/un ... f400b52ab1

Look at the photo of him at the massive table, he looks in very poor health.

And what (who) is the alternative? Is there a viable crown prince who is “acceptable”?
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:22 pm

marcelh wrote:
cpd wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Let me guess: you aren’t in Europe?


I’m well within reach of Russian ICBMs and my country is supplying weapons (including artillery), so we are just as much a potential target as you are.

Never heard of tactical nukes? If those are going to be deployed and we have an atmospheric stream from the south East, a huge part of Europe is under threat of nuclear fall-out. That is much more a threat and something you don’t have to worry about.

can’t even walk, so if it all goes wrong there will be no running to fallout bunkers (which we don’t have here anyway).

Worrying about Russian nuclear blackmail just encourages them more. If it happens, that’s it and Russia will also be a smoking radioactive mess as well. Mr Putin, do you want to take that chance?

IMHO only thinking about nuclear ICBMs makes it clear you miss the whole picture. But agree to disagree.

Putin might not be around for that much longer:

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/un ... f400b52ab1

Look at the photo of him at the massive table, he looks in very poor health.

And what (who) is the alternative? Is there a viable crown prince who is “acceptable”?
When the weatherman says that there's a 5% chance of rain, do you carry an umbrella, wear a raincoat, and worry about it all day?
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:25 pm

marcelh wrote:

And what (who) is the alternative? Is there a viable crown prince who is “acceptable”?
Anyone is more acceptable than Putin. Look how long it took him to consolidate power and start doing stupid things. Any replacement would know that the Russian armed forces aren't the power that Putin thought that they were. He'd have to take years to rebuild, all while the West would thwart his plans to rebuild too much.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:27 pm

marcelh wrote:
we have an atmospheric stream from the south East, a huge part of Europe is under threat of nuclear fall-out.

There's not much fall out from tactical nukes, they emit a lot of ionizing radiation, but ionizing radiation isn't "fallout". It doesn't travel downwind.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:58 pm

You don't let your adversary determine what you do or don't do. If you do, you're constantly reacting instead of being proactive.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:42 pm

johns624 wrote:
You don't let your adversary determine what you do or don't do. If you do, you're constantly reacting instead of being proactive.

That is what has been happening so far, n'est-ce pas? Countries objecting to Ukraine's invasion have been self-censoring (eg MiiG-29 fiasco). I'm pleased that the UK is getting a bit bolshy with Putin. What is he going to do - nuke the UK Kiev embassy, drown Winchester in novichok, ban drinking Scotch whisky in Moscow?
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:08 pm

Russia's threats really don't make any sense. They go something like this "we're having big problems with defeating Ukraine who are just being supplied by the West. So we threaten to attack other countries which will bring the West into direct confrontation with us". Yeah, that'll really improve their position...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:12 pm

I was wondering how Ukrainian artillery seemed to be able to get pin point hit on Russian armour.

Apparently here is the answer.

https://militaryleak.com/2022/04/02/ukr ... ition/?amp

The Kvitnik is a 152 mm guided shell, while there is also a Kvitnik-E 155 mm export version, which was first publicly revealed in 2007.


So they can also make the 155mm version. Perfect for the new tubes they will be getting.

bt
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:26 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexLuck9/st ... 2750776326

Another attack in Russia by Ukrainian forces ???
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:59 pm

The excellent channel Military Aviation History does a deep dive into the changing (which made producing this video a challenge), situation within Germany on Ukraine, German support, the practicalities, problems and the German Forces own place in all of this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3c385d5NU0
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:17 pm

bikerthai wrote:
I was wondering how Ukrainian artillery seemed to be able to get pin point hit on Russian armour.

Apparently here is the answer.

https://militaryleak.com/2022/04/02/ukr ... ition/?amp

The Kvitnik is a 152 mm guided shell, while there is also a Kvitnik-E 155 mm export version, which was first publicly revealed in 2007.


So they can also make the 155mm version. Perfect for the new tubes they will be getting.

bt


Here is an interesting article from Forbes going into the details of why Ukraine's artillery is so much more effective than Russia's, despite the latter's larger numbers and supposedly more sophisticated fire-control system:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... a32beb3b48

The new influx of western weapons into Ukraine, especially the artillery, should do wonders.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:37 pm

...the high level of stupidity of Russian propaganda is unbelievable.
...every single day it is reaching the next level of silliness.

In this video, they are explaining, this is an Ukranian tank, that one of the two has shot it and how they will repair and soon will bring it back on duty.

Yes, it is a T-64 and you were able to wash away the "Z" mark on the right site of the turret in part and forgot the "Z" mark on the back of the turret.
So you want to explain us, you have shot down your own tank?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOHMg7IkzHU

Ah yes, the video:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/udktjj/source_said_rashist_propagandist_talks_about_the/
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:56 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1519708072750776326

Another attack in Russia by Ukrainian forces ???


And it comes after this one this morning:

Ukrainians operating behind enemy lines have blown up an important railway bridge used by the Russians to ferry military supplies from Crimea to occupation forces in Melitopol


https://mobile.twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1519644381476704256
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:03 pm

The support of the USA for Ukraine is about to be seriously expanded:

POTUS requesting another $33 billion for #Ukraine

"Addt'l security assistance will put urgently needed equipment into the hands of Ukraine's military & police...ammunition, armored vehicles, small arms,
demining assistance & unmanned aircraft systems" per Biden


https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1519687486942945282
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:06 pm

The threats by Russia are just threats. Nothing more. It will only take for Putin and the rest to feel suicidal to attack a NATO country directly without expecting some sort of military response.

Russia's military is so weak, and their politicians too, they only have the threat of Nuclear Weapons at this time to use as a bargaining chip. Nothing more.

And where is the leader of the 'new world' China in all of this? See why we can't trust the CCP? they could take advantage and use their leverage with Russia to show they 'lead' on something.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:09 pm

I saw a twitter thread this morning showing 7x 747 (Kalitta, Atlas & National) en route to Rzeszow with military stuff. Just from the US and all in the air.
russia has no way of resupplying just to catch up with the flow of new weapons going to Ukraine unless China or some other 3rd party starts contributing.
I honestly believe they will run out of options due to supply issues. Only question is what will they do when that happens.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:38 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
I saw a twitter thread this morning showing 7x 747 (Kalitta, Atlas & National) en route to Rzeszow with military stuff. Just from the US and all in the air.
russia has no way of resupplying just to catch up with the flow of new weapons going to Ukraine unless China or some other 3rd party starts contributing.
I honestly believe they will run out of options due to supply issues. Only question is what will they do when that happens.

There is a continuous stream of freighters landing at Rzeszow Jasionka Airport and there has been such for the last two months.

Two days ago, in another forum, someone logged the incoming flights into Rzeszow Jasionka over 24 hours; the potential cargo amounted to two million pounds. That's a thousand tons of high value war material. It is worthy to note that on that day (Tuesday); no C5bs showed up, and they have been regulars lately.

This of course doesn't include the material that arrives by truck and rail from Western Europe.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:40 pm

Vintage wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
I saw a twitter thread this morning showing 7x 747 (Kalitta, Atlas & National) en route to Rzeszow with military stuff. Just from the US and all in the air.
russia has no way of resupplying just to catch up with the flow of new weapons going to Ukraine unless China or some other 3rd party starts contributing.
I honestly believe they will run out of options due to supply issues. Only question is what will they do when that happens.

There is a continuous stream of freighters landing at Rzeszow Jasionka Airport and there has been such for the last two months.

Two days ago, in another forum, someone logged the incoming flights into Rzeszow Jasionka, and the potential cargo amounted to two million pounds. That's a thousand tons of high value war material. It is worthy to note that on that day (Tuesday); no C5bs showed up, and they have been regulars lately.

This of course doesn't include the material that arrives by truck and rail from Western Europe.


That's my point.
It just keeps flowing.
There's no way russians can keep up at this pace.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:17 pm

Right now there an apparently lost Silk Way West Airlines 747 flying Frankfort - Baku that is over the Black Sea heading straight into the Crimean peninsula after flying through Romanian and Ukrainian airspace. If the Captain looks off to his left he may get to see tracers.


(Boeing 747-4R7F Registration 4K-SW800)

WoW he just made landfall.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:39 pm

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1519 ... 53440.html

This informative thread explains why Putin hasn't declared war and fully mobilized Russia, he simply can't.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:46 pm

Vintage wrote:
Right now there an apparently lost Silk Way West Airlines 747 flying Frankfort - Baku that is over the Black Sea heading straight into the Crimean peninsula after flying through Romanian and Ukrainian airspace. If the Captain looks off to his left he may get to see tracers.


(Boeing 747-4R7F Registration 4K-SW800)

WoW he just made landfall.
There is also a Russian air force IL-62MK flying over the eastern Black Sea possibly to Crimea. Not seen that as visible before.

https://fr24.com/2ba88079
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:54 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
There is also a Russian air force IL-62MK flying over the eastern Black Sea possibly to Crimea. Not seen that as visible before.

https://fr24.com/2ba88079

Yea, odd flight path for that one too.

The Silk Way 747 continues on. He was 200 miles north of the rest of the traffic flow.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:03 pm

Vintage wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
There is also a Russian air force IL-62MK flying over the eastern Black Sea possibly to Crimea. Not seen that as visible before.

https://fr24.com/2ba88079

Yea, odd flight path for that one too.

The Silk Way 747 continues on. He was 200 miles north of the rest of the traffic flow.
Found it.
7L4504 from Frankfurt to Baku https://fr24.com/AZG4504/2ba858b9

The one that flew over Crimea must be a bug as it goes to a black line at the point the one further south appears.
Last edited by ReverseFlow on Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:05 pm

Vintage wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
There is also a Russian air force IL-62MK flying over the eastern Black Sea possibly to Crimea. Not seen that as visible before.

https://fr24.com/2ba88079

Yea, odd flight path for that one too.

The Silk Way 747 continues on. He was 200 miles north of the test if the traffic flow.


On my FR24 it shows a dotted line from just before the Hungarian-Romanian border. I think that means they have not had a position for the aircraft so they just plot it on a direct route to the destination, which is probably not the actual route. The last known heading was more to the south of the dotted route.
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:07 pm

Vintage wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
There is also a Russian air force IL-62MK flying over the eastern Black Sea possibly to Crimea. Not seen that as visible before.

https://fr24.com/2ba88079

Yea, odd flight path for that one too.

The Silk Way 747 continues on. He was 200 miles north of the rest of the traffic flow.


FR24 is not showing the actual route of that Silk Way 747. It seems to be an extrapolation from the last flight information received just before she reached Romania, hence the doted line.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:17 pm

This is inexplicable; If FR24 was projecting the flight path (after the transponder was shut off?) why would FR24 have it make a 20° left turn at that point? At the time it was over Crimea, it was a normal line, not a black dashed line.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:36 pm

This article in today's Moscow Times is very interesting, and gives us an insight into what seems to be going on behind the scenes in Moscow. It would seem not everyone is on the same page as Putin, and cracks are starting to appear at the highest levels. No wonder he's been looking pretty stressed lately:

"Russia’s military believes that limiting the war’s initial goals is a serious error. They now argue that Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but NATO. Senior officers have therefore concluded that the Western alliance is fighting all out . . . while its own forces operate under peacetime constraints like a bar on airstrikes against some key areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. In short, the military now demands all-out war, including mobilization. The frustration is becoming so intense that it has spilled over into the public space.  Alexander Arutyunov (aka, the blogger RAZVEDOS), a well-known veteran of Spetsnaz of the National Guard, made a video plea to Putin: "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, please decide, are we fighting a war or are we masturbating?" He demanded a massive escalation, with a choice of airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure or an end to the war."

And, disturbingly:

"The author expressed optimism that the Russian air force will be able to staunch the flow of Western supplies but warned that further Ukrainian victories “will almost certainly prompt the use of nuclear weapons” against targets in Ukraine. Privately, the army, and even the secret services, have been heard to blame not only the Fifth Service of the FSB for misinforming the president, but also the president himself for making a bad call on changing the military strategy. Does it matter? It matters a lot. This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the president. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... ces-a77508
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:52 pm

How can they think that "NATO is fighting all out" when NATO forces aren't even directly involved? There seems to be a serious disconnect between Russia and reality.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:55 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1519560504712253440.html

This informative thread explains why Putin hasn't declared war and fully mobilized Russia, he simply can't.
Just because they haven't "declared war" doesn't mean that that's not what's going on.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:00 pm

 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:22 pm

Braybuddy wrote:

Interesting, but this was apparently aired on 9 March (despite it making the rounds in the last few days)
 
mjgbtv
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:24 pm

Vintage wrote:
This is inexplicable; If FR24 was projecting the flight path (after the transponder was shut off?) why would FR24 have it make a 20° left turn at that point? At the time it was over Crimea, it was a normal line, not a black dashed line.


I don't think it was extrapolating from the last course; I think it was just showing a direct path from the last known position to the destination.

Anyway, if you look now it has the route going well south of Crimea like all of the other traffic.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:39 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
This article in today's Moscow Times is very interesting, and gives us an insight into what seems to be going on behind the scenes in Moscow. It would seem not everyone is on the same page as Putin, and cracks are starting to appear at the highest levels. No wonder he's been looking pretty stressed lately:

"Russia’s military believes that limiting the war’s initial goals is a serious error. They now argue that Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but NATO. Senior officers have therefore concluded that the Western alliance is fighting all out . . . while its own forces operate under peacetime constraints like a bar on airstrikes against some key areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. In short, the military now demands all-out war, including mobilization. The frustration is becoming so intense that it has spilled over into the public space.  Alexander Arutyunov (aka, the blogger RAZVEDOS), a well-known veteran of Spetsnaz of the National Guard, made a video plea to Putin: "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, please decide, are we fighting a war or are we masturbating?" He demanded a massive escalation, with a choice of airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure or an end to the war."

And, disturbingly:

"The author expressed optimism that the Russian air force will be able to staunch the flow of Western supplies but warned that further Ukrainian victories “will almost certainly prompt the use of nuclear weapons” against targets in Ukraine. Privately, the army, and even the secret services, have been heard to blame not only the Fifth Service of the FSB for misinforming the president, but also the president himself for making a bad call on changing the military strategy. Does it matter? It matters a lot. This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the president. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... ces-a77508


NATO isn’t going all out yet.

It hasn’t used tactical nukes yet. Continual Russian provocation is pointless.

What if we had some semi official media channels in the west talking up nuclear conflict like the Russians do, daily….
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:38 am

cpd wrote:
NATO isn’t going all out yet.

It hasn’t used tactical nukes yet. Continual Russian provocation is pointless.

What if we had some semi official media channels in the west talking up nuclear conflict like the Russians do, daily….

The Moscow Times isn't even semi-official: it's an independent publication which has had to relocate to Amsterdam since the invasion of Ukraine. It is no supporter of Vladimir Putin.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:41 am

More humorous content from Russian state TV discussing a potential nuclear strike.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 5608479746
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:19 am

Russia raised the alarm over "acts of terrorism" in Moldova's Moscow-backed breakaway region of Transnistria after separatist authorities reported several attacks there this week.

"We are alarmed by the escalation of tensions in Transnistria," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during her weekly briefing, pointing to reports of shootings and explosions.

"We regard these actions as acts of terrorism aimed at destabilising the situation in the region and expect a thorough and objective investigation," Zakharova added.

She said Russia "strongly condemns" attempts to involve Transnistria in the conflict in neighboring Ukraine, where Moscow has been conducting a military operation for more than two months.

Zakharova also dismissed a "sensational statement" from Ukraine about Russian peacekeepers and Transnistrian conscripts preparing "for some offensive actions."


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... ing-a76553

Is it possible that the war in Ukraine will destabilise Moldova and if so, will US and Russia turn the state into another proxy contest? According to Wiki, Moldova's regular armed forces are nominal.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:30 am

marcelh wrote:
cpd wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Let me guess: you aren’t in Europe?


I’m well within reach of Russian ICBMs and my country is supplying weapons (including artillery), so we are just as much a potential target as you are.

Never heard of tactical nukes? If those are going to be deployed and we have an atmospheric stream from the south East, a huge part of Europe is under threat of nuclear fall-out. That is much more a threat and something you don’t have to worry about.


If Putin does that the russian language will only exist as a foreign language going forward.

The ukrainians hardly offer worthy targets for Artillery, there will not ever be a target worthy of a tactical nuke, a concenpt that only exists in theory. All nukes are strategic weapons.

best regards
Thomas
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:30 am

johns624 wrote:
You don't let your adversary determine what you do or don't do. If you do, you're constantly reacting instead of being proactive.

An American talking about “being proactive”… we’ve seen that a lot after the end of the Cold War and it was a huge success.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:44 am

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
You don't let your adversary determine what you do or don't do. If you do, you're constantly reacting instead of being proactive.

An American talking about “being proactive”… we’ve seen that a lot after the end of the Cold War and it was a huge success.

What #johns624 said was true, though, wasn't it? Very much so in the context of the Ukraine. We have a situation in which if this were a golf match between two players, Putin would be dictating what clubs his opponent was allowed to use.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:32 am

[photoid][/photoid]
art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
You don't let your adversary determine what you do or don't do. If you do, you're constantly reacting instead of being proactive.

An American talking about “being proactive”… we’ve seen that a lot after the end of the Cold War and it was a huge success.

What #johns624 said was true, though, wasn't it? Very much so in the context of the Ukraine. We have a situation in which if this were a golf match between two players, Putin would be dictating what clubs his opponent was allowed to use.


As a matter of fact, not having boots on the ground and/or a no fly zone is actually doing what the adversary is determinating.

I take the broader American stance into account of this crisis. When I watch/read the recent US rhetoric, this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians. I see a “pro active” US and we have seen multiple times how that ends. And I don’t feel the need to be part of some “collateral damage” of this though talk.

The primary purpose of NATO is to protect the member states and their citizens. IMHO escalating a proxy war with someone who has nukes on our doorstep doesn’t really fit.

And to be clear: I really don’t matter if I’m being called a pessimist and happy to be proven wrong, I’ll eat crow without hesitation.
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:10 am

It now seems clear that the UK will provide Brimstone missiles to Ukraine however it's not clear yet which version and/or for which purpose it will be used. We can safely assume that whichever version is provided will be according to the requirements of Ukraine. Quantities are said to be "in the hundreds" but the first shipment won't happen before a few weeks from now. My take for this relatively late delivery is that training is still ongoing or that some adaptation work is still ongoing (on the missiles or for preparation of a missile carrier).

The United Kingdom has confirmed that it’s sending Brimstone precision-guided missiles to Ukraine, as part of a steadily expanding supply of weapons the country is providing to help resist the Russian invasion, which is now in its 64th day. Interestingly, accounts from British officials and media are currently at odds as to whether the missiles being supplied are intended as anti-ship weapons, for attacking ground targets, or perhaps even both.


a British government official, James Heappey, the U.K.’s armed forces minister, has confirmed that “hundreds” of Brimstone missiles will be sent to Ukraine, where the first examples should arrive in the “next few weeks.”


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/brimstone-precision-guided-missiles-are-headed-to-ukraine-within-weeks
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:59 am

marcelh wrote:
When I watch/read the recent US rhetoric, this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians

I think that by invading Ukraine - and by the manner in which it has conducted this invasion (razing whole areas, raping, pillaging) - Russia has shown that it does need to be emasculated. No more Russian invasions, please. Nor American, for that matter.

I think that the aim should be for states to be independent, not dependent on some or another superpower looking to take them into its sphere of influence. Given that Russia, US, China see the world this way, I am not optimistic.

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