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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:04 am

art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
When I watch/read the recent US rhetoric, this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians

I think that by invading Ukraine - and by the manner in which it has conducted this invasion (razing whole areas, raping, pillaging) - Russia has shown that it does need to be emasculated. No more Russian invasions, please. Nor American, for that matter.


Significantly downgrading Russia’s military machine is just a happy by-product of helping Ukraine defend themselves.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:11 am

marcelh wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
An American talking about “being proactive”… we’ve seen that a lot after the end of the Cold War and it was a huge success.

What #johns624 said was true, though, wasn't it? Very much so in the context of the Ukraine. We have a situation in which if this were a golf match between two players, Putin would be dictating what clubs his opponent was allowed to use.


As a matter of fact, not having boots on the ground and/or a no fly zone is actually doing what the adversary is determinating.

I take the broader American stance into account of this crisis. When I watch/read the recent US rhetoric, this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians.


which is the only way to defend Ukraine beyond the short term, and hence the only correct position to have if we don´t want to have the same dicussion every couple of years.

The primary purpose of NATO is to protect the member states and their citizens.


And the best way of doing that is to keep war away from the borders of NATO members. Why fight in Poland or your neighbourhood after Russia rearmed and repleneced after taking Ukraine if the problem can be solved before Ukraine falls?

best regards
Thomas
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:20 am

marcelh wrote:
this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians. I see a “pro active” US and we have seen multiple times how that ends. And I don’t feel the need to be part of some “collateral damage” of this though talk.

This war is about Russia invading Ukraine. That's what it's about. That's what it always was about, that is what it still is about.
Weakening (or emasculating) an opponent is always a part of wars of any kind. Fighting a defensive war which allows the other side to exit the war without a reduction in strength serves little purpose.

marcelh wrote:
The primary purpose of NATO is to protect the member states and their citizens.

And that is what the NATO nations are doing by supplying Ukraine with weapons and material.
That is what NATO is doing by positioning defensive forces in the region in readiness lest Russia decides to attack other nations too.
That is what NATO is doing by monitoring the movements and communications of Russia.

marcelh wrote:
IMHO escalating a proxy war with someone who has nukes on our doorstep doesn’t really fit.

Again it is Russia which has started this war; it is Russia that repeatedly threatens to escalate this war. I say again, because you keep trying to imply that it is the US or NATO that started this war.

"Proxy war" as you use it, is just a rhetorical term. This is a real war that was (again) begun by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:54 am

Thank you Russia (and Belarus) for providing the first laugh of the day:

Russia, Belarus Call on Former Soviet Nations to Help Form USSR-Style Union
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-belarus ... in-1701741

Any guesses on which nation will be the next to join this military and economic juggernaut? :roll:
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:28 pm

Vintage wrote:
marcelh wrote:
this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians. I see a “pro active” US and we have seen multiple times how that ends. And I don’t feel the need to be part of some “collateral damage” of this though talk.

This war is about Russia invading Ukraine. That's what it's about. That's what it always was about, that is what it still is about.
Weakening (or emasculating) an opponent is always a part of wars of any kind. Fighting a defensive war which allows the other side to exit the war without a reduction in strength serves little purpose.

Russia will not be greatly reduced militarily, will it? 99+% of its arms production capacity will remain if it is booted out of all of Ukraine tomorrow. The economic damage in the medium to long term will be telling, I think. I see that as emasculation. In addition, Russia set out to teach Ukraine a lesson but looks like it is learning one as well (Russia cannot overwhelm a country with a much weaker military on paper if faced with determined opposition).

Vintage wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The primary purpose of NATO is to protect the member states and their citizens.

And that is what the NATO nations are doing by supplying Ukraine with weapons and material.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO. This is not all about NATO v Russia. Sweden supplies a lot of arms to Ukraine. Finland also supplies arms to Ukraine. If France and UK were not part of NATO, I am confident they would supply a lot of arms to Ukraine. I think that we Europeans do not want a totalitarian state to take over Ukraine. We want Ukraine to remain as an independent, democratic country.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:53 pm

I know Russian state TV being goofy and Russia threatening nuclear was is now just a daily occurrence, but after reading this tirade again, something struck me:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5221437/ru ... putin/amp/
Simonyan said: “Either we lose in Ukraine or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader.

“The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events.

“This is to my horror on one hand,” she told a panel of experts, “but on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak... We're all going to die someday.”


When I first heard it, I of course was focusing on the nuclear threat nonsense, but look at the bold part: this is Russian state TV, they are admitting they are losing? They will lose if they continue to fight conventionally, and the only alternative is WWIII (nukes, in this context)?

I realize that Russian propaganda often doesn't make sense to the West, because we are not the target audience, it is Russian citizens. Sounds like they are trying to shift the narrative, but I think it's eye opening that they are finally starting to admit things aren't going according to plan...

I suppose it makes sense. Even Russian propaganda has its limits, I'm sure the Russian populace is starting to see that things are at least a bit hairy in Ukraine
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:58 pm

art wrote:
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. This is not all about NATO v Russia. Sweden supplies a lot of arms to Ukraine. Finland also supplies arms to Ukraine. If France and UK were not part of NATO, I am confident they would supply a lot of arms to Ukraine. I think that we Europeans do not want a totalitarian state to take over Ukraine. We want Ukraine to remain as an independent, democratic country.

That's why I used the term"NATO nations" instead of NATO.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 1:07 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I know Russian state TV being goofy and Russia threatening nuclear was is now just a daily occurrence, but after reading this tirade again, something struck me:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5221437/ru ... putin/amp/
Simonyan said: “Either we lose in Ukraine or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader.

“The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events.

“This is to my horror on one hand,” she told a panel of experts, “but on the other hand, it is what it is. We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak... We're all going to die someday.”


When I first heard it, I of course was focusing on the nuclear threat nonsense, but look at the bold part: this is Russian state TV, they are admitting they are losing? They will lose if they continue to fight conventionally, and the only alternative is WWIII (nukes, in this context)?

I realize that Russian propaganda often doesn't make sense to the West, because we are not the target audience, it is Russian citizens. Sounds like they are trying to shift the narrative, but I think it's eye opening that they are finally starting to admit things aren't going according to plan...

I suppose it makes sense. Even Russian propaganda has its limits, I'm sure the Russian populace is starting to see that things are at least a bit hairy in Ukraine


The Russian populace was promised that Russia had the greatest armies of all, now they witnessed the retreat out of Kiev, that they are having severe losses (Moskva) and the west is pouring in weapons and funds into this war. This is next to the economic sanctions.

Even Russians with half a brain which is fully diluted by propaganda realizes that things are not going well and losing is definitely quite a big possibility...
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 1:15 pm

So as it seems, no one has recognized....

Seems that the last offense of the Russian army in the Russian-Ukraine war has already ended.
In last two days I had really a little bit feared, the offense could be partly successful, as we had seen massive battles and actions around Kherson in the south west and in the north of the Donbass pocket. But through the whole yesterday, also there were offensive actions at these two front lines, not a single one of them was successfull, all have been beaten back, not a single village has been taken yesterday by Russian forces. Instead the Russian forces have even lost few villages around Charkow.

...and since yesterday evening, all offensive actions by Russian forces seems to have ended. Little arty games from left to right and from right to left, that seems to be all. It is now quiet at the frontline.

So the third last battle of this war has ended?
I expect the next one around end of May, Jun/Jul with the reverse offensive actions by Russian forces behinf the borders of 2013.

...and than only the last one is left... :cry2:
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 1:51 pm

T4thH wrote:
So the third last battle of this war has ended?
I expect the next one around end of May, Jun/Jul with the reverse offensive actions by Russian forces behinf the borders of 2013.


Another milestone will be the day Sweden and Finland gets admitted in to NATO. After all NATO expansion was declared as one of the reason why Russia attacked Ukraine.

If we hear nothing but whimpering rhetoric from Russia after that day . . . :cry2:

bt
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:17 pm

T4thH wrote:
So as it seems, no one has recognized....

Seems that the last offense of the Russian army in the Russian-Ukraine war has already ended.
In last two days I had really a little bit feared, the offense could be partly successful, as we had seen massive battles and actions around Kherson in the south west and in the north of the Donbass pocket. But through the whole yesterday, also there were offensive actions at these two front lines, not a single one of them was successfull, all have been beaten back, not a single village has been taken yesterday by Russian forces. Instead the Russian forces have even lost few villages around Charkow.

...and since yesterday evening, all offensive actions by Russian forces seems to have ended. Little arty games from left to right and from right to left, that seems to be all. It is now quiet at the frontline.

So the third last battle of this war has ended?
I expect the next one around end of May, Jun/Jul with the reverse offensive actions by Russian forces behinf the borders of 2013.

...and than only the last one is left... :cry2:

Do you have a link to a good map of the current progress?

My question is, are there any salients Ukraine can lop off? It is my opinion that capturing tens of thousands, if not over a hundred thousand, Russian troops is required to generate the political will to end this war.

Lightsaber
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:31 pm

T4thH wrote:
So as it seems, no one has recognized....

Seems that the last offense of the Russian army in the Russian-Ukraine war has already ended.
In last two days I had really a little bit feared, the offense could be partly successful, as we had seen massive battles and actions around Kherson in the south west and in the north of the Donbass pocket. But through the whole yesterday, also there were offensive actions at these two front lines, not a single one of them was successfull, all have been beaten back, not a single village has been taken yesterday by Russian forces. Instead the Russian forces have even lost few villages around Charkow.

...and since yesterday evening, all offensive actions by Russian forces seems to have ended. Little arty games from left to right and from right to left, that seems to be all. It is now quiet at the frontline.

So the third last battle of this war has ended?
I expect the next one around end of May, Jun/Jul with the reverse offensive actions by Russian forces behinf the borders of 2013.

...and than only the last one is left... :cry2:

I'm an optimist but I don't see as rosy a picture as you.

Here's the way I keep track:
I use Google Earth to keep track of all that I know about the war there, I even plot the railroad lines.

If you want to use GE follow the war, go here and download their KML file. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 16&z=7

It's not hard to find the download page (click on the three dots).
Then load the KML file into GE
Go to Temporary Places and copy the folder "lines" and move it above.
(Turn off everything else in Temp folders or delete, as it adds too much clutter. IMO)

You now have the current front lines drawn in the Ukraine.
Rename it to the correct date ie: 4-28.
I edit their color and make them thinner to make things presentable (see below).

Day 2 (or after the next update)
Do the same, and change the color of the lines by gong to properties for the "lines" folder selecting style color and then click on "share style", ).
You now have the lines from each of the days, and because you made them different colors it is easy to see any changes.

This gives you a near real time comparison every day.

The information comes from here: https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/military-digest

I have been doing this over the last week and I can see in better detail than anywhere else how the progress / regress of the Russian offensive is developing. I have compared the information found here with a number of the other assumed to be valid information sources and I have found no discrepancies. Sites like the BBC offer no detail like this.

The end result has been that the Russian offensive has steadily been making small advances for the last week.
Go here for an analysis of the last 48 hours or so. https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3207

I suspect there will soon be a major offensive in one location because Russia is said to have a dozen BTGs uncommitted.
I also suspect that the people with the satellites will know in advance when that is about to happen, and that the Ukrainians won't be caught by surprise.
I believe they have uncommitted reserves too.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:18 pm

Is this the first video game war? Don't mess with Ukranians!
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 7772380161
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:28 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
Is this the first video game war? Don't mess with Ukranians!
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 7772380161


We are finally seeing what military folks have been seeing with their eye in the sky for decades now.

This is more graphic than video games. In video games, typically dead bodies disappears. In the video posted, you can see the injured limping away. The last sequence shows the soldier lying in agony from shrapnel wounds while the drive did not even have the strength to exit the vehicle.

Quite sad . . .

bt
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:04 pm

I'm reading on a live ticker that Poland and Slovakia have agreed that the Slovakian Mig-29s will be handed over to the Ukraine and Poland will secure Slovakian airspace in return. The ticker says: This was announced by the defense ministers of both countries in Bratislava. I can't find an official source yet
The same source says : Poland is supporting neighboring Ukraine against the Russian aggressor by supplying more than 200 Soviet T-72 tanks. This was reported by the Polish radio news agency IAR, citing government agencies. And most of the tanks have already crossed the border and are on Ukrainian territory.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:16 pm

I second the concern regarding the new offensive. Sure it's not as rapid as the opening day, but what kind of losses is Russia taking? They're making slow progress, maybe because they're being careful and not bum rushing. Methodically advancing (like a real army, maybe they're learning).

It's hard to say. There hasn't seem to be huge firefights with slow advancements, more like small skirmishes throughout. Think the jury is out on that one.

oldJoe wrote:
I'm reading on a live ticker that Poland and Slovakia have agreed that the Slovakian Mig-29s will be handed over to the Ukraine and Poland will secure Slovakian airspace in return. The ticker says: This was announced by the defense ministers of both countries in Bratislava. I can't find an official source yet
The same source says : Poland is supporting neighboring Ukraine against the Russian aggressor by supplying more than 200 Soviet T-72 tanks. This was reported by the Polish radio news agency IAR, citing government agencies. And most of the tanks have already crossed the border and are on Ukrainian territory.

I wouldn't be surprised if the MiG deal actually happens. Something seemed very off during the back and forth. Maybe the confusion was intentional? Maybe they were planning on giving them all along but didn't want it to be public?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:41 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I second the concern regarding the new offensive. Sure it's not as rapid as the opening day, but what kind of losses is Russia taking? They're making slow progress, maybe because they're being careful and not bum rushing. Methodically advancing (like a real army, maybe they're learning).


I'm getting a pretty detailed view of it (viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1470285&start=5150#p23282131) and I don't see anything slow and methodical about it. They take ground and then get pushed back half the time. They create salients that seem to beg for their lead units to be cut off. About the only place that I see them making sustained progress toward a worthwhile goal is south of Izyum and even there it is not a breakthrough. I suspect that they are paying a high price for every yard gained there. They have taken a couple of miles south of Zarichne, but lost a couple of miles just west of there, and in any event the gain south of Zarichne isn't in the direction they need it to be. They're just headed into more farmland.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:43 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Maybe they were planning on giving them all along but didn't want it to be public?


My guess the key word is "planning". Poland has to evaluate their assets (in this case their F-16 fleet) and perhaps the uptempo utilization by expanding the air coverage over Slovakia. Thus Poland would need to get assurance from the US on the logistic support for this additional reposibiliry, perhaps more deployment of US assets in to Poland.

Then all the government officials including the generals would have to review the plan and approve. We all know how slow democratic government can move sometimes.

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:39 pm

OK, these are now four parts: (and sorry for the many edits now).
1. No reserves left on Russian site and "does the offense has stopped now?
2. Calculation of Russian strength and losses (of course with an error rate)
3. Ukrainian strengh, fast growing now.
4. Why we will see the loss of the Russian army in end of May/Jun/Jul/conclusion

Please note, you are checking the progress of the frontline per day. And yes, there have beeb small progesses every day in last weeks, one village here, one there. Most stress was around Isjum (and east of it in north of Donbass pocket), as Russia has had amassed the units there to perform the encirclement of Ukranian units at Donbass front. Additional they had amassed some units at Kherson front line on the west site of Djnepr, around Nova Kamianka (from there to perform an attack to the north) and from Kherson city to west/south-west, to press back the Ukrainian advances in last weeks there from Mykolayiv in direction to Kherson.

So every day, starting in morning and ending with sunset, we have seen these attacks by Russian forces in last days/weeks, since the East Donbass offense by Russian forces has started.
An in last two or so days, we have seen (seems for me) more attacks as in days prior.

Not today. it seems it has ended little bit early yesterday. I can not find any information of battles today, I have had recognized it today at lunch time, that something is different now (since few hours).
These battles in east at Donbass front in last days have been bloody with high amount of losses on both sites.
I have my doubts, Russia has any BTGs in reserve at Ukraine frontline now.These are now already in, these were the units from the former Kiev front line (so the units from far east, not as good equipped as the units from the western front (the "Z"s, many T-80s). Many of these units are already done and have to be new build/reinforced, as already battered.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
OK let us calculate:
One BTG: Around 800 soldiers. and around 43/44 armored combat vehicles:
Heavy BTG: 3x a 11 MBTs (T72, T80 and T90) and 1x a 11 IFV (regular tracked, BMP2 or BMP 3)
Light BTG (cavallery): 1x a 11 MBTs and 3x a 11 IFVs (regular 2x a 11 wheeled BTR 80A/82A and 1x a 11 tracked BMP 2/3).
And there are also few marine BTGs (as Light BTG) and the airborne BTGs (BMD-2 and BMD 4M).

Russia has had around 160 to 165 BTGs in total. Of them, 120 are now in Ukraine and all have been actively involved now. Few (but excellent equipped) are now in the Kalinigrad pocket, and as these are now in a pocket, the material/tanks can be moved only by ship. These will stay there, I have not seen, these are now in move. One is in Transnistria. One or two brigades (- 20%, who are now in Ukraine) are around the Armenia/ Aserbaidschan/Georgia hotspot...they are needed there, they can not leave, or someone will think about to move the border lines. Few units with the oldest T80 verions and BTR 80 are still in the far east at border to China. It is the same for the BTGs at Finland border, these are also most in Ukraine now.
So with 120 BTGs, everything, that can be moved, is already there. The marine BTGs are in Mariopol. And all units involved in Mariupol battle are battered.

Additional there are around 30.000 men as "additonal forces": around 20.000 seperatists, 10.000 Khadirovs, Wagner, Syrian mercenaries e.g. This number has perhaps grown, they have started with around 30.000?

So in total around 210.000? men have been involved on Russian site. We now just forget all the support units, artillary, logistic, AA, ECM,e.g.. We only want to play/count the BTGs and front line combat forces.
120 BTGs x 800->96.000 combat men. (also there are logistic men in each unit so only 500 per BTG are real combat men?)
15.000 of the 30.000 "additional forces"?
So in best case 110.000 men (and pretty sure, this number is too high?).
Russia has around 2.500 special forces (Spesznaz), just for your information Ukraine has 4.500....

120x BTGs. Tanks + IFVs: 5160 MBTs and IFVs in best case (pretty sure there are several units who have not started with 100% strengh).

Oryx numbers of visualized losses (so confirmed). And of course, only the visual confirmed losses, so no picture, no counted. And there is a big backlog of IFVs (several hundreds). So all these tanks, who have been hit by arty in the forests, all these BTGs, who got erased there, all these damaged tanks and IFVs, picked up by Russian forces and brought back by train, are not counted. So for everything, destroyed/parked in villages or on/next to streets, there are pictures, even behind enemy lines. Foe anything in forests behind enemy lines...unlikely. We will calculate at the end with factor 1.6, I beieve it is fair (and stlill in favour of the Russian site).

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
so up to date numbers:

587 tanks/MBTs.
+ 622 IFVs (BMP 1/2/3, BTR 82A and BMDs)
+ 52 BTR 80s (the far east BTGs were still equipped with few of them).
1261 units.

These with factor 1.6: 2018 MBTs and IFVs.
Just remind, 5160 MBTs and IFVs in the 120 BTGs in best case:
so already 39% loss rate....
Problem is, also the separatist units have few tanks and IFVs (regular outdated).
So accordintg losses: T-64, BMP1 and T72A/AV/BA....few of the BTR80....so perhaps 150 all together? So let is substract them, Still around a loss rate of 37%.

So even according Russian guidelines, with around 70 to 75% a unit is not any more battle ready and has/will be taken back from the frontline for replenishment/refill.
Withh less than 50%, a unit is erased and can not be refilled any more. It has to be rebuild, these units are done for this war.

So the big question, how many of the 120 BTGs are still battle ready....30 to 40?

Last leaked numbers from last week, >13.000 dead and >9.000 missing. (so dead of POW). This excludes the seperatists! These are not counted (no one cares on Russian site).
So total combat losses (dead/missing/POW + wounded) around 60.000, with higher part of the BTGs and less of the support forces in Ukraine? Additional 10.000 of the deperatists Khadirovs/Wagner?

Sorry, I do not see any reserves left. This was the last offense of the Russian army (when this Dobass offense has now already ended as I expect).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And we shall not forget. Ukraine is fully mobilising the army. They have millions, willed to fight as volunteers.
300.000 volunteers have started the training in Feb-2022, seems every month additional 100.000 are starting the training in the west of Ukraine. So when they have completed the training, we will see one new army after another popping up.
Ukraine has an army of around highly trained and experienced 210.000 men (navy, airfoce and army). The army is at the Donbass frontline, where the front line has still not moved from begin of this war, Russia has just taken 3 villages.

Additional 900.000 battle trained (in Donbass conflict since 2014) reservists. around already fighting 200.000 or more home defence forces (volunteers and reservists) these are these, who have stopped the Russian attacks on their villages....
100.000 paramilitary (police e.g. they have also formed many units and the police SWAT units are fully involved in this war).

4500 Spesznaz....
>>>>>>>>>
Conclusion:
Russia has not fully mobilized and now it is too late. Also no one seems to want to die in Ukraine on Russian site. The motivation is already at rock bottom. The Ukrainian are willed to fight for their country and to defend it till to the end as we now see in Mariupol.

As said, I expect end of May/Jun/Jul for the big Russian reverse offensive behind the borders of 2020 or even 2013.... This will be the second last battle of this war....

(the last battle is of course a joke... the battle of Moskov).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>
sorry for the many edits.
Last edited by T4thH on Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:03 pm

T4thH wrote:
(the last battle is of course a joke... the battle of Moskov).


And that would be the one battle where the use of nukes would actually be plausible, but nobody is really interested in going there!
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:45 pm

I am a little over interested in the area around Kherson because this is what secures the south coast and Oddessa / Budjak and prevents a linkup with Transnistria. So (to take all that you posted a chunk at a time) this part interests me the most.

T4thH wrote:
Additional they had amassed some units at Kherson front line on the west site of Djnepr, around Nova Kamianka (from there to perform an attack to the north) and from Kherson city to west/south-west, to press back the Ukrainian advances in last weeks there from Mykolayiv in direction to Kherson.

I'd been hoping to see that Ukrainians push them back across the Dnjepr river, but that hasn't been happening. What has been happening is sort of a stalemate with the Russians creeping forward some. Where you mentioned (north of Nova Kamianka), there is a bulge where the Russians apparently have made it across the Inhulets river in the last 24 hours according to the latest line drawing. According to that line, they are now in the village of Hannivka, but were not in control at the time the line was drawn. That seems to be an offensive towards Zelenskyy’s hometown, Kryvyi Rih. Which is a wasteful offensive if the Russians are actually trying to get to Odessa.

There is another offensive bulge near the shore of the Bug west of Kherson (46°43'32.77"N 32° 5'34.16"E) toward Mikolayiv Air base. But there are Ukrainian pushes on both sides of that bulge, it seems to me that the Russian salient is in danger of being cut off.

I'd love to see a sat picture of that little area.

There never has been a war like this before, where a viewer 6,000 miles away can keep track of a battalion sized engagement in near real time.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:11 pm

Vintage wrote:
IThere never has been a war like this before, where a viewer 6,000 miles away can keep track of a battalion sized engagement in near real time.


Amazing isn’t it! These days us civilians have information at our fingertips that WW2 generals could only dream of.
Heck, it’s probably even better then what the military had available for the first gulf war.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:17 pm

Vintage wrote:
I am a little over interested in the area around Kherson because this is what secures the south coast and Oddessa / Budjak and prevents a linkup with Transnistria. So (to take all that you posted a chunk at a time) this part interests me the most.

T4thH wrote:
Additional they had amassed some units at Kherson front line on the west site of Djnepr, around Nova Kamianka (from there to perform an attack to the north) and from Kherson city to west/south-west, to press back the Ukrainian advances in last weeks there from Mykolayiv in direction to Kherson.

I'd been hoping to see that Ukrainians push them back across the Dnjepr river, but that hasn't been happening. What has been happening is sort of a stalemate with the Russians creeping forward some. Where you mentioned (north of Nova Kamianka), there is a bulge where the Russians apparently have made it across the Inhulets river in the last 24 hours according to the latest line drawing. According to that line, they are now in the village of Hannivka, but were not in control at the time the line was drawn. That seems to be an offensive towards Zelenskyy’s hometown, Kryvyi Rih. Which is a wasteful offensive if the Russians are actually trying to get to Odessa.

There is another offensive bulge near the shore of the Bug west of Kherson (46°43'32.77"N 32° 5'34.16"E) toward Mikolayiv Air base. But there are Ukrainian pushes on both sides of that bulge, it seems to me that the Russian salient is in danger of being cut off.

I'd love to see a sat picture of that little area.

There never has been a war like this before, where a viewer 6,000 miles away can keep track of a battalion sized engagement in near real time.

I have not seen any confirmation in last let us say, 36 h, that Russia has successful taken any village in Kherson area, only that attacks have failed. Regarding fog of war, if one village has been taken or is still contested or if it is just to small to be mentioned, who knows. This is part of the fog of war.
Also where to draw the lines? This is not the WWI, where there is the first German trench line and 200 m in the west, there is the first French one. There are just not enough troops, to have a real front line with few exceptions, so there are areas controlled, contested areas and no mans land.
And regarding the bulge; few days ago, Russian forces had encircled one Ukranian force in the south west of the bulge, the unit could break through without losses. So in the south west, some Ukranian forces have been forced back.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:56 pm

marcelh wrote :
IMHO escalating a proxy war with someone who has nukes on our doorstep doesn’t really fit.


In order to understand this, our municipality ( an.net ) must first know where you live as so-called "European" and above all whether you were even born in Europe!? To give you a little support: I'm German and I experienced the warm-hearted American (army) people in my childhood. I have visited many countries, most not as a tourist but as a fitter, including in Russia, which were no worse if you at least partially disregard the Russian military. Tell us the truth ! Without this information it is impossible to tell what nuclear stuff is on your own "doorstep" as some countries in Europe have nuclear weapons stored and ready for use.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:01 pm

oldJoe wrote:
marcelh wrote :
IMHO escalating a proxy war with someone who has nukes on our doorstep doesn’t really fit.


In order to understand this, our municipality ( an.net ) must first know where you live as so-called "European" and above all whether you were even born in Europe!? To give you a little support: I'm German and I experienced the warm-hearted American (army) people in my childhood. I have visited many countries, most not as a tourist but as a fitter, including in Russia, which were no worse if you at least partially disregard the Russian military. Tell us the truth ! Without this information it is impossible to tell what nuclear stuff is on your own "doorstep" as some countries in Europe have nuclear weapons stored and ready for use.
He says he is from the Netherlands.
 
aristoenigma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:10 am

We won't ever know the truth. FWIW Internet Troll is defined as: a person who intentionally antagonizes others online by posting inflammatory, irrelevant, or offensive comments or other disruptive content. In the late 1980s, Internet users adopted the word "troll" to denote someone who intentionally disrupts online communities.— Mattathias Schwartz.
Lots of stone bridges throughout Asia and Europe to live under.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 12:16 am

But for the action of one man, the whole war could have turned.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... s-war.html

So there was a hit squad. And if Zelensky decided to leave Kiyv. The whole government might have collapsed.

bt
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:42 am

 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:38 am

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520080167858753537

Literally a one in a million shot :o


The whole sequence is linked in Braybuddy's post up thread. My question is was that a dud? Because there was no explosion?

The complete sequence show at least one of the occupant got out, badly injured but alive.

bt
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:36 am

bikerthai wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520080167858753537

Literally a one in a million shot :o


The whole sequence is linked in Braybuddy's post up thread. My question is was that a dud? Because there was no explosion?

The complete sequence show at least one of the occupant got out, badly injured but alive.

bt


AFAIK, those are basically only modified grenades, not a large explosion by any means - more anti-personnel than tank-buster. It does explode - you can see the blast blows out the windshield and doors.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:57 am

So, with all that has happened since the beginning of the war, and the constant "cry wolf" use of nuclear strikes rhetoric from Russia, is it time to take the gloves off ? What if the US/NATO/a "coalition of the willing" sent troops in ? A "special operation" to rid Ukraine of Russians, not a war of course.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:15 am

Aesma wrote:
So, with all that has happened since the beginning of the war, and the constant "cry wolf" use of nuclear strikes rhetoric from Russia, is it time to take the gloves off ? What if the US/NATO/a "coalition of the willing" sent troops in ? A "special operation" to rid Ukraine of Russians, not a war of course.


I like it! ;) I know who won’t like this. :)

Maybe it’s enough to send in special operatives to sabotage the Russian efforts (just as Russia does).
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:34 am

Aesma wrote:
So, with all that has happened since the beginning of the war, and the constant "cry wolf" use of nuclear strikes rhetoric from Russia, is it time to take the gloves off ? What if the US/NATO/a "coalition of the willing" sent troops in ? A "special operation" to rid Ukraine of Russians, not a war of course.


The problem with all this is that it validates the Russian claim that they are not fighting Ukraine, instead they are fighting NATO itself. There are short term and long term effects here. In the short term, it bolsters the "hawks" argument for using tactical nukes. In the long term, it undermines the education program for the Russian people (and others). There would be an ongoing and forever argument about whether it was Ukraine that defeated Russia or was it NATO.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:41 am

cpd wrote:
Maybe it’s enough to send in special operatives to sabotage the Russian efforts (just as Russia does).

Maybe a few specialty technicians, but there is no need for "boots on the ground" aka infantrymen.
Possibly we could declare LVIV a free zone for refugees; and place a ring of Patriots around it, as well as providing air cover defending a hundred miles or so of airspace.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:11 pm

 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:14 pm

Interesting clip from Russian state tv.

Remarkable clip of Russian state TV propaganda show where one guest gently brings up Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and suggests it may need to negotiate to keep territory it holds now.
Everyone looks uneasy. One guest goes hysterical.
Host: “But that would be victory for Ukraine”…


https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1520278168556482561

But obviously any negotiations from Russia where they demand to keep Ukrainian territory it holds now is a no go.
The only acceptable would be that Ukraine gets all territory back + Crimea.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:32 pm

Braybuddy wrote:


Doesn't matter I think. Don't think they have much to send actually. The Russian army numbers are way inflated and even if they can get more men
those men need equipment like tanks, APC:s, artillery and etc which likely don't exist or isn't in usable condition.
Add to that extremely low morale among the Russian troops, high morale and modern equipment for the Ukrainians means
that if the Russians knows what's best for them they should stay in Russia.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:43 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
The Russian army numbers are way inflated and even if they can get more men
those men need equipment like tanks, APC:s, artillery and etc which likely don't exist or isn't in usable condition.


They would also have to feed the larger army.

One thing about a general mobilization would be where will they get reliable officers to lead the men? A larger army means harder to control and open a chance for fracture and . . . Perhaps civil war?

bt
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 2:55 pm

Braybuddy wrote:

Along the lines of a "World/global war on nazis" is what I've seen. Either a way it's a ploy for his domestic audience, and to appease his very disgruntled generals who feel the "special operation" status means they're fighting with one arm tied behind their backs in terms of mobilisation. What they'll be able to mobilised other than unwilling and untrained civilians is a different question though, most of their gear is already in theatre.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 3:22 pm

art wrote:
Russia raised the alarm over "acts of terrorism" in Moldova's Moscow-backed breakaway region of Transnistria after separatist authorities reported several attacks there this week.

"We are alarmed by the escalation of tensions in Transnistria," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during her weekly briefing, pointing to reports of shootings and explosions.

"We regard these actions as acts of terrorism aimed at destabilising the situation in the region and expect a thorough and objective investigation," Zakharova added.

She said Russia "strongly condemns" attempts to involve Transnistria in the conflict in neighboring Ukraine, where Moscow has been conducting a military operation for more than two months.

Zakharova also dismissed a "sensational statement" from Ukraine about Russian peacekeepers and Transnistrian conscripts preparing "for some offensive actions."


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/ ... ing-a76553

Is it possible that the war in Ukraine will destabilise Moldova and if so, will US and Russia turn the state into another proxy contest? According to Wiki, Moldova's regular armed forces are nominal.


A Ukraine win would make it difficult for Russia to supply the garrison in Moldova.
 
alfa164
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 4:00 pm

Aesma wrote:
So, with all that has happened since the beginning of the war, and the constant "cry wolf" use of nuclear strikes rhetoric from Russia, is it time to take the gloves off ? What if the US/NATO/a "coalition of the willing" sent troops in ? A "special operation" to rid Ukraine of Russians, not a war of course.


I have suggested a "special (humanitarian) operation" to Mariupol: simply tell everyone - especially the Russians - that the world is fed-up with promised of humanitarian corridors that were all lie, destruction of water and fuel supplies, and refusal to allow any food or other humanitarian aid to the victims of Russian aggression. and that a "Berlin-like" airlift (or a sea-based flotilla, as been suggested by another poster, although mines might be a problem) was coming to provide aid for the citizens,

Do it. Let Putin know that war crimes will be dealt with by the rest of the world. And stay out of the way.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 6:15 pm

cpd wrote:
Aesma wrote:
So, with all that has happened since the beginning of the war, and the constant "cry wolf" use of nuclear strikes rhetoric from Russia, is it time to take the gloves off ? What if the US/NATO/a "coalition of the willing" sent troops in ? A "special operation" to rid Ukraine of Russians, not a war of course.


I like it! ;) I know who won’t like this. :)

Maybe it’s enough to send in special operatives to sabotage the Russian efforts (just as Russia does).


Not enough when you watch the second intercepted call in this video. What a moron !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DX-zp1-6CU
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:11 pm

seems, the Ukrainian army has hit the next command post and killed the next general, still to be confirmed.The original sources are not good...

It shall be either:
Major General Simonov or
General olexander scherbua

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufgl3x/reports_of_a_successful_ukrainian_strike_on/

EDIT:
Major General Andrei Simonov was at a forward command post near Izyum when it was hit.

He is the 9th Russian general killed so far (or 11th if counting 2 unconfirmed in Kherson).

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520510155858845699?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1520510155858845699%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fufk6oq%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:01 pm

Vintage wrote:
marcelh wrote:
this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians. I see a “pro active” US and we have seen multiple times how that ends. And I don’t feel the need to be part of some “collateral damage” of this though talk.

This war is about Russia invading Ukraine. That's what it's about. That's what it always was about, that is what it still is about.
Weakening (or emasculating) an opponent is always a part of wars of any kind. Fighting a defensive war which allows the other side to exit the war without a reduction in strength serves little purpose.

marcelh wrote:
The primary purpose of NATO is to protect the member states and their citizens.

And that is what the NATO nations are doing by supplying Ukraine with weapons and material.
That is what NATO is doing by positioning defensive forces in the region in readiness lest Russia decides to attack other nations too.
That is what NATO is doing by monitoring the movements and communications of Russia.

marcelh wrote:
IMHO escalating a proxy war with someone who has nukes on our doorstep doesn’t really fit.

Again it is Russia which has started this war; it is Russia that repeatedly threatens to escalate this war. I say again, because you keep trying to imply that it is the US or NATO that started this war.

"Proxy war" as you use it, is just a rhetorical term. This is a real war that was (again) begun by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


"The purpose NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," British General Hasting Ismay (1952)
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:11 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
"The purpose NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," British General Hasting Ismay (1952)

And now Britain has isolated itself much to the glee of Russia, everyone wants Germany to be more aggressive and the USA is the somewhat wobbly candidate within NATO...!
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:25 pm

Klaus wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
"The purpose NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," British General Hasting Ismay (1952)

And now Britain has isolated itself much to the glee of Russia, everyone wants Germany to be more aggressive and the USA is the somewhat wobbly candidate within NATO...!



If that quote is from 1952, that makes perfect sense for the time. Europe was broke, the Germans were still suspect, and America was already fighting Communist expansion and Soviet pilots in Korea.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:25 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:


Doesn't matter I think. Don't think they have much to send actually. The Russian army numbers are way inflated and even if they can get more men
those men need equipment like tanks, APC:s, artillery and etc which likely don't exist or isn't in usable condition.
Add to that extremely low morale among the Russian troops, high morale and modern equipment for the Ukrainians means
that if the Russians knows what's best for them they should stay in Russia.


I feel like you so I'm wondering if it can be true. You use a very patriotic day to mobilize troops and declare war, but in practice you have nothing more to send to the front as you still need to cover your territory and borders (which are gigantic), I don't see the point.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:27 pm

T4thH wrote:
seems, the Ukrainian army has hit the next command post and killed the next general, still to be confirmed.The original sources are not good...

It shall be either:
Major General Simonov or
General olexander scherbua

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufgl3x/reports_of_a_successful_ukrainian_strike_on/

EDIT:
Major General Andrei Simonov was at a forward command post near Izyum when it was hit.

He is the 9th Russian general killed so far (or 11th if counting 2 unconfirmed in Kherson).

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520510155858845699?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1520510155858845699%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fufk6oq%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse


The video of that hit was definitely impressive! But so have so many other recent recent hits!! I keep reading that russians are learning from their mistakes near Kyiv, but so are the Ukrainians.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 01, 2022 12:31 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
The video of that hit was definitely impressive!


Any clues out there on why some of the hits has white smoke and some have dark gray smoke? I would assume it would be the shell type.

bt
 

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