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tommy1808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 11:43 am

alberchico wrote:
There have been numerous mysterious fires breaking out in Russia recently.


or fires in Russia simply get more coverage these days.

best regards
Thomas
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 11:50 am

GDB wrote:
Inside an abandoned BMD-4M, the main fighting vehicle of the supposed elite VDV airborne troops, full of ammo.
You would think the crew would at least destroy it to prevent it falling into enemy hands, some sources claim the Ukrainians have captured a number of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P35Kl0Douo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMD-4

Not a clapped out drawn from reserve vehicle either.


Maybe they’ve had enough.

Now talk Putin is to officially declare war:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukr ... 5ahy7.html
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 12:29 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hC ... nnel=Perun

A good video analyzing Russia's nuclear threats.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 12:40 pm

cpd wrote:
GDB wrote:
Inside an abandoned BMD-4M, the main fighting vehicle of the supposed elite VDV airborne troops, full of ammo.
You would think the crew would at least destroy it to prevent it falling into enemy hands, some sources claim the Ukrainians have captured a number of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P35Kl0Douo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMD-4

Not a clapped out drawn from reserve vehicle either.


Maybe they’ve had enough.

Now talk Putin is to officially declare war:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukr ... 5ahy7.html
Does anyone know what else a difference between a 'special operation' and war would be?

The linked article says:
"Price said it would be a great irony if Putin used Victory Day to declare war, which would allow the Kremlin to draft conscripts to reinforce its battered military force."

Would perhaps the Geneva Conventions be applicable (not thaf Russia would actually adhere to them)?
But iirc Russia left that treaty recently?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 1:00 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1521437994632327168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521437994632327168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Could simply be a coincidence, but it made me chuckle. There have been numerous mysterious fires breaking out in Russia recently.


Time to start giving them a name.

Russian Resistance
Rebel Russian - Billy Idol anyone?
Russian Underground

bt
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 1:12 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
Does anyone know what else a difference between a 'special operation' and war would be?


Apart from sending more young inexperienced men to die in Ukraine against their will, I can't see what he expects to gain.
I'm guessing this will give him even more powers over the economy, such as mobilizing factories to start producing weapons instead of whatever they normally do.

On another note, unexplained fires and explosions all over Russia seem to keep happening...
Today it was a pro-government publishing house near Moscow:
https://www.newsweek.com/warehouse-fire ... se-1702826
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 2:06 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1521437994632327168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521437994632327168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Could simply be a coincidence, but it made me chuckle. There have been numerous mysterious fires breaking out in Russia recently.

That’s an efficient way to get rid of the books that still mention Ukraine.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 2:10 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
cpd wrote:
GDB wrote:
Inside an abandoned BMD-4M, the main fighting vehicle of the supposed elite VDV airborne troops, full of ammo.
You would think the crew would at least destroy it to prevent it falling into enemy hands, some sources claim the Ukrainians have captured a number of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P35Kl0Douo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMD-4

Not a clapped out drawn from reserve vehicle either.


Maybe they’ve had enough.

Now talk Putin is to officially declare war:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukr ... 5ahy7.html
Does anyone know what else a difference between a 'special operation' and war would be?

The linked article says:
"Price said it would be a great irony if Putin used Victory Day to declare war, which would allow the Kremlin to draft conscripts to reinforce its battered military force."



As if more barely trained, low morale troops is what it takes for Russia to really break the Ukrainians.

There seem to be no adults on the Russian command structure.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 2:53 pm

JJJ wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
cpd wrote:

Maybe they’ve had enough.

Now talk Putin is to officially declare war:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukr ... 5ahy7.html
Does anyone know what else a difference between a 'special operation' and war would be?

The linked article says:
"Price said it would be a great irony if Putin used Victory Day to declare war, which would allow the Kremlin to draft conscripts to reinforce its battered military force."



As if more barely trained, low morale troops is what it takes for Russia to really break the Ukrainians.

There seem to be no adults on the Russian command structure.


A formal declaration of war followed by a full mobilization is dangerous for Ukraine because it puts Putin in a corner. He would have to secure a major victory no matter what, otherwise his survival would be at risk. It would also mean a long brutal war of attrition for Ukraine.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 4:20 pm

alberchico wrote:
JJJ wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
Does anyone know what else a difference between a 'special operation' and war would be?

The linked article says:
"Price said it would be a great irony if Putin used Victory Day to declare war, which would allow the Kremlin to draft conscripts to reinforce its battered military force."



As if more barely trained, low morale troops is what it takes for Russia to really break the Ukrainians.

There seem to be no adults on the Russian command structure.


A formal declaration of war followed by a full mobilization is dangerous for Ukraine because it puts Putin in a corner. He would have to secure a major victory no matter what, otherwise his survival would be at risk. It would also mean a long brutal war of attrition for Ukraine.


Funny you should mention 'Putin in a corner' (presumably of a room at the end of a very long table), since the latest deep dive by this excellent channel discusses the greatest fear of him in a corner;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4&t=1259s
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 5:09 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61297478

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... peech.html

It's amazing how much bravery the Ukrainians have. Having the most important people in your government gather together in one room at the same time is from a security standpoint, extraordinarily dangerous.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 8:29 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1521437994632327168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521437994632327168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Could simply be a coincidence, but it made me chuckle. There have been numerous mysterious fires breaking out in Russia recently.

Some lies are so flagrant, they're actually combustible!
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 8:36 pm

GDB wrote:
Inside an abandoned BMD-4M, the main fighting vehicle of the supposed elite VDV airborne troops, full of ammo.
You would think the crew would at least destroy it to prevent it falling into enemy hands, some sources claim the Ukrainians have captured a number of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P35Kl0Douo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMD-4

Not a clapped out drawn from reserve vehicle either.

It looks like it would have been a lot of work or alternatively quite dangerous to get rid of that ammunition, though.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 9:00 pm

Klaus wrote:
It looks like it would have been a lot of work or alternatively quite dangerous to get rid of that ammunition, though.


You would beed some c-4 charge and a long detonator chord.

I recall an Ukranian video of a couple of guys who disabled a Russian tank with properly set charge. They were some distance away and behind some cover, but the secondary explosion still sent debris pass their heads.

I would not want to be the one to toss a grenade into that BMD to destroy it, I would not be fast enough to outrun the explosion. :flamed:

bt
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 9:24 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Klaus wrote:
It looks like it would have been a lot of work or alternatively quite dangerous to get rid of that ammunition, though.


You would beed some c-4 charge and a long detonator chord.

I recall an Ukranian video of a couple of guys who disabled a Russian tank with properly set charge. They were some distance away and behind some cover, but the secondary explosion still sent debris pass their heads.

I would not want to be the one to toss a grenade into that BMD to destroy it, I would not be fast enough to outrun the explosion. :flamed:

Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking.

And it would be very loud and noticeable, which you might not exactly want in a situation where you just lost the ability to move halfway securely in an armoured vehicle and you're now on foot and much more vulnerable.

Likely too many risks to take for demoralized troops already under the impression that there's nobody but themselves with any interest in their survival.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 9:47 pm

Klaus wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Klaus wrote:
It looks like it would have been a lot of work or alternatively quite dangerous to get rid of that ammunition, though.


You would beed some c-4 charge and a long detonator chord.

I recall an Ukranian video of a couple of guys who disabled a Russian tank with properly set charge. They were some distance away and behind some cover, but the secondary explosion still sent debris pass their heads.

I would not want to be the one to toss a grenade into that BMD to destroy it, I would not be fast enough to outrun the explosion. :flamed:

Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking.

And it would be very loud and noticeable, which you might not exactly want in a situation where you just lost the ability to move halfway securely in an armoured vehicle and you're now on foot and much more vulnerable.

Likely too many risks to take for demoralized troops already under the impression that there's nobody but themselves with any interest in their survival.


But these are the vehicles of Russia’s professional crack troops. The first in guys. But they still likely are not junior officer and NCO centric, where with the sort of operations they are meant to carry out, they really have to be more than in ‘normal’ war fighting.
Unless it ran out of fuel it looked operable, probably will be with the Ukrainian forces!
Could they not leave a booby trap if they thought it would be captured? Did any have a light anti weapon, the disposable one shot type, to destroy it from a distance?

These are troops that take pride of place in Russian military parades, who do the most operational deployments.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 11:03 pm

GDB wrote:
But these are the vehicles of Russia’s professional crack troops. The first in guys.


Yeah but unless they are Engineer type they were probably never trained or equipped with demolition charges.

Now, if they were the MacGyver type, they could have rig the fuel tank with a wick and try to set it on fire before they leave.

But perhaps MacGyver was before their time.

bt

Oh but I forgot. They ran out of gas and the vodka was too precious. So no flaming device option.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 03, 2022 11:31 pm

Looks like the Chinese are hanging the Russians out to dry; no evidence of China providing any overt military or economic assistance to Russia, and have even backed away from some deals:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-reliev ... 022-05-03/

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.

U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China's long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 12:40 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Looks like the Chinese are hanging the Russians out to dry; no evidence of China providing any overt military or economic assistance to Russia, and have even backed away from some deals:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-reliev ... 022-05-03/

China is not in a good position to deal with sanctions on top of COVID and their other economic issues – it is probably a good choice to tread lightly and not risk any avoidable exposure right now.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 3:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
When I watch/read the recent US rhetoric, this war isn’t about defending Ukraine anymore, but to emasculate the Russians

I think that by invading Ukraine - and by the manner in which it has conducted this invasion (razing whole areas, raping, pillaging) - Russia has shown that it does need to be emasculated. No more Russian invasions, please. Nor American, for that matter.


Significantly downgrading Russia’s military machine is just a happy by-product of helping Ukraine defend themselves.

Absolutely correct.
Russia has declared, through multiple state-sponsored propagandist channels, that further existence of Russian statehood is incompatible with existence of Ukrainians as a nation.

Ergo, Russia survives only if it's allowed to commit a genocide.

I choose "it doesn't" to both.

Rest of participants are free to make their choice. But with full understand that these two, in a current situation, cannot be split anymore.

"Red lines" of Russia do include "we are allowed to commit a genocide, or else".
 
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william
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 3:16 pm

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/05/0 ... -conflict/

The closet is bare': Aid to Ukraine depletes US weapons supply
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 3:24 pm

william wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/05/03/us-weapons-stockpile-shrinking-dnt-lead-marquardt-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/

The closet is bare': Aid to Ukraine depletes US weapons supply
My first thought was 'that was quick'.
But I suppose the supplies are very one-sided to certain weapons and in a full-scale conflict with America the usage would be spread out as you'd have the Air Force etc etc.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 3:29 pm

william wrote:
The closet is bare': Aid to Ukraine depletes US weapons supply
That also means the closet was not sufficiently supplied to start with...
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 3:34 pm

william wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/05/03/us-weapons-stockpile-shrinking-dnt-lead-marquardt-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/
The closet is bare': Aid to Ukraine depletes US weapons supply

That's "crying wolf"; the US has given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine, which means that we still have 14,000 in inventory. However, the enemy that those Javelins were intended to used against is now being depleted of most of his front line equipment. So shouldn't our stockpile needs be adjusted? Lines like "our stockpile is depleted" and "the cupboard is bare" go beyond hyperbole and are actually lies spewed for the sole purpose of increasing CNN's ratings.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 4:53 pm

Looks like Russia is storming Azovstal and contact "has been lost" with the defenders

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... -rcna27249

Doesn't mean the have been or will be overrun, but they've lasted longer than anyone would've thought and maybe this is the end :cry:

I don't think Russia can afford to let them hang out in the factory. They need to capture or kill them... These soldiers are one of the big aims of the conflict, to "denazify" Ukraine. These are the supposed Nazis (according to Russia), or am I confusing them with some other group?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 4:58 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Looks like Russia is storming Azovstal and contact "has been lost" with the defenders

Whatever unit is doing this can be crossed off Russia's active list.

Their casualties will be enormous. The survivors in Azovstal know they won't be taken as prisoners anyway, they will fight to the end.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 5:40 pm

Vintage wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Looks like Russia is storming Azovstal and contact "has been lost" with the defenders

Whatever unit is doing this can be crossed off Russia's active list.

Their casualties will be enormous. The survivors in Azovstal know they won't be taken as prisoners anyway, they will fight to the end.

I'm sure Russia doesn't care how many losses they have. Getting the infamous "Azov Nazis", before May 9th, I'm sure is a main goal of Putin. They desperately need a "win" and getting the "Nazis" is a huge one for them (even if they have to go through a bunch of mental gymnastics)

I do agree they'll fight to the end. Any survivors will probably be put on trial and death by Russia or the LPR/DPR (my guess).

The Azovstal defenders have held on many times, hopefully we hear from them again later today...
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 5:52 pm

Russia has really lost the whole battle already, and they don't even realize it. They are fighting a land game, they already lost the advance in the center, and now they are trying to annex the east, where maybe they have some sympathizers, but at the end of it all, the Russian Economy has been destroyed. And now Europe is looking ready to ban oil imports.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia ... -1.6440166



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

A drop in purchases of oil by Europe will collapse Russia's Oil market, and make them work harder to sell cheaper oil to fewer and fewer customers. The Ruble will continue to slide and continue to destroy their economy,
'
I would have to say within 5-6 years, the Russian government will have completely collapsed.
 
kelval
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 6:15 pm

casinterest wrote:
Russia has really lost the whole battle already, and they don't even realize it. They are fighting a land game, they already lost the advance in the center, and now they are trying to annex the east, where maybe they have some sympathizers, but at the end of it all, the Russian Economy has been destroyed. And now Europe is looking ready to ban oil imports.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia ... -1.6440166



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

A drop in purchases of oil by Europe will collapse Russia's Oil market, and make them work harder to sell cheaper oil to fewer and fewer customers. The Ruble will continue to slide and continue to destroy their economy,
'
I would have to say within 5-6 years, the Russian government will have completely collapsed.


Um, right now, the ruble is at it's highest in 2 years against the Euro.

And North Korea has proved that huge sanctions aren't enough to provoke a regime change.

I also think Russia is losing the war, but I'll wait and see for the other statements.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 6:32 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
william wrote:
The closet is bare': Aid to Ukraine depletes US weapons supply
That also means the closet was not sufficiently supplied to start with...
We're just short of Javelins and Stingers, but no where near out of them. Javelins have a lot of importance in Ukraine because that's one of their main anti-armor weapons. The US is still fine with anti-armor weapons because the Javelin is just one of them. We also have Apaches, Abrams, Hellfires, TOWs, artillery, etc. Same with Stingers. We still have the USAF. They may not want to do CAS but they'll do air-to-air all day (and night) long.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 6:39 pm

johns624 wrote:
We're just short of Javelins and Stingers, but no where near out of them.

We still have 14,000 Javelins in stock. You really think we're "short" on them?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 6:43 pm

kelval wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Russia has really lost the whole battle already, and they don't even realize it. They are fighting a land game, they already lost the advance in the center, and now they are trying to annex the east, where maybe they have some sympathizers, but at the end of it all, the Russian Economy has been destroyed. And now Europe is looking ready to ban oil imports.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia ... -1.6440166



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

A drop in purchases of oil by Europe will collapse Russia's Oil market, and make them work harder to sell cheaper oil to fewer and fewer customers. The Ruble will continue to slide and continue to destroy their economy,
'
I would have to say within 5-6 years, the Russian government will have completely collapsed.


Um, right now, the ruble is at it's highest in 2 years against the Euro.

And North Korea has proved that huge sanctions aren't enough to provoke a regime change.

I also think Russia is losing the war, but I'll wait and see for the other statements.


The ruble is high because Russia has interfered greatly in their own economy.

Sanctions will continue to rise, and the loss of oil sales and sanctions will cripple Russian manufacturers. There is a big wave of defaults coming.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022 ... -the-ruble

There are big risks to all this government intervention. The protectionist measures enacted by the Central Bank of Russia are effectively a kind of bridge for the ruble. If Russia manages to come to some kind of resolution over Ukraine that involves the withdrawal of sanctions and the reestablishment of trade relations with the West, then the ruble might hold its current value once the measures are withdrawn. If the measures are withdrawn without some kind of resolution, however, the ruble could collapse, hammering the economy, jacking up inflation and causing enormous pain to the Russian people. And the measures — some of them, at least — will have to be withdrawn eventually. Russian borrowers can't keep paying interest rates of more than 20% for long, if they can even conceive of borrowing at that rate. Growth will be stifled — the Russian economy is already expected to contract by more than 8% this year — and industry will slump.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 6:57 pm

kelval wrote:
Um, right now, the ruble is at it's highest in 2 years against the Euro.

Is that surprising considering how much money the Kremlin has used to prop up the ruble, how they banned foreigners from liquidating stocks, how they require importers to convert 80% of their sales to rubles?

Russia has instituted a lot of capital controls to prop the ruble up, read into it. The ruble's value is a great piece of propaganda, but the whole situation is artificial and unsustainable.

Any country on earth could monkey around with their currency and shoot it up, in the short term anyway
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 7:52 pm

After the collapse of the Russian lines NW of Kharkiv two days ago the road through the border crossing for one of the main the Russian supply routes (50°20'12.99"N 36°55'6.77"E) is now within artillery range of the Ukrainians at Stari Saltiv (50° 4'43.24"N 36°46'52.75"E), it's about a 20 mile shot.

I hope they have some of the new helicopter transportable M777s on the job.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 8:38 pm

Vintage wrote:
johns624 wrote:
We're just short of Javelins and Stingers, but no where near out of them.

We still have 14,000 Javelins in stock. You really think we're "short" on them?
It all depends where they are and who we're fighting. Anyone less than PRC and I'd say no.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 8:45 pm

johns624 wrote:
Anyone less than PRC and I'd say no.

If we ever get into a land war with the PRC we're doomed anyway.
Any military conflict with China will be settled in the air and at sea.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 8:49 pm

Vintage wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Anyone less than PRC and I'd say no.

If we ever get into a land war with the PRC we're doomed anyway.
Any military conflict with China will be settled in the air and at sea.
I hope that's the way it works. The reason they talk about a "shortage" is not so much that we need more right now as that Ukraine will need more and the production line is currently only geared up for peacetime amounts.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 9:05 pm

johns624 wrote:
The reason they talk about a "shortage" is not so much that we need more right now as that Ukraine will need more and the production line is currently only geared up for peacetime amounts.

"They" (all of them) are not as rational as that. "They" use rhetoric like: "our stockpile is depleted" and "the cupboard is bare"; this is all chicken little nonsense. It is not healthy dialogue, it is counterproductive to giving the public a truthful understanding of our military needs. BS like this is one reason people don't trust the MIC.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 9:38 pm

Of course not only are the Javelins and other systems like NLAW, Starstreak and the new and being used in Ukraine Martlet, still in production, so can be replenished for national stocks, not at the rate sent to Ukraine of course but as stated, they need them, now. So they got and are getting them.
Plus Javelin is very widely used, so far the US has sent by far the most, followed by the UK, it's deployed by nations who have already sent material and in many cases weapons, to Ukraine, again their stocks will need replenishing too however there are a lot of them out there with cooperative nations.

A report mostly in the field;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEexU8Ecmas
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 11:25 pm

johns624 wrote:
Anyone less than PRC and I'd say no.


There is only two scenarios that I see that we could involve in a shooting match with PRC. Defending Taiwan, or help defending India. Either way, I do not see a heavy reliance on AT man pad. Does the PRC have enough asset to project overwhelming mechanized forces across the Straight or over the Himalayas?

bt
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 11:53 pm

AT weapons are also used for bunker-busting and putting holes in buildings.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 04, 2022 11:58 pm

kelval wrote:
And North Korea has proved that huge sanctions aren't enough to provoke a regime change.

That is not a good example because the north korean regime would immediately collapse if it wasn't actively propped up by China to preserve the status quo.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 12:01 am

johns624 wrote:
AT weapons are also used for bunker-busting and putting holes in buildings.


Not useful in the Himalayas. Could be useful in Taiwan if they go on the offensive.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/4 ... -and-fails

According to this article, it is confirmed that the US M177 are have been used.

Also a video of the drone ship (boat) that was provided a few weeks ago.

bt
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 12:14 am

bikerthai wrote:
johns624 wrote:
AT weapons are also used for bunker-busting and putting holes in buildings.


Not useful in the Himalayas. Could be useful in Taiwan if they go on the offensive.
bt
But very useful in the new USMC organization where they might be visiting some manmade islands in the SCS.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 12:25 am

johns624 wrote:
But very useful in the new USMC organization where they might be visiting some manmade islands in the SCS.


Yikes, I would not put boots on that Island if I don’t have to.

Bomb and by-pass if possible.

bt
 
11Bravo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 12:39 am

Well,... this explains why and how all these Russian general officers were getting themselves killed; combine very capable US intel with half-assed Russian OPSEC and ,.... Boom.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/p ... raine.html
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 12:39 am

bikerthai wrote:
johns624 wrote:
But very useful in the new USMC organization where they might be visiting some manmade islands in the SCS.


Yikes, I would not put boots on that Island if I don’t have to.

Bomb and by-pass if possible.

bt
Read the USMC's new expeditionary doctrine. They don't want to keep the islands long-tem, just many hit-and-run raids in company-size operations. The British Royal Marines are also evolving the same way.
https://news.usni.org/2021/04/15/marine ... operations
https://www.overtdefense.com/2020/09/15 ... ce-update/
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 1:17 am

11Bravo wrote:
Well,... this explains why and how all these Russian general officers were getting themselves killed;

If a person watches FR24, every day they will see multiple ELINT aircraft including Global Hawks plying the borders of Ukraine, I never knew we had so many ELINT planes.

As an aside, twice in the last few days I've seen fighters escorting the ELINT aircraft, at first I thought that a fighter pilot may have left his transponder on accidentally, but that's not the case, they've done it multiple times now. This morning there was a Luxembourg ELINT plane doing circuits over the southern Moldova border, and there was a Eurofighter doing a tight circle directly between the ELINT plane and the Crimean peninsula.

What a war, we can watch it from out front rooms.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 1:55 am

Vintage wrote:
What a war, we can watch it from out front rooms.

Without actually being in the blast zone, and that makes the difference between most of us and the ukrainians!
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 05, 2022 4:30 am

tommy1808 wrote:
alberchico wrote:
There have been numerous mysterious fires breaking out in Russia recently.


or fires in Russia simply get more coverage these days.

best regards
Thomas



This polish article has a map of all the recent “fires” in russia. Definitely a good amount to be noticeable.

Of course all the wildfires in Siberia are a different story, and the lack of manpower to fight them.

https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiad ... w,79cfc278

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