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JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 4:41 am

Francoflier wrote:
Do we know why Snake island is so strategically important?
It has been in the spotlight since early in the war and may have some symbolic value, but would Ukrainian air assets not be better used striking Russian targets on the Eastern front?

I know that defending The southwestern coast is primordial, but Snake hardly seems like a suitable bridgehead for a land invasion of the area west of Odessa, especially given the state of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
That said, I'm obviously no military expert, even of the armchair variety.


Not sure if true, but read somewhere that snake island is a nice spot for some SAM batteries to control the airspace over Odessa. Sounded quite valid to me, especially when seeing the efforts from both parties…
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 4:43 am

Francoflier wrote:
Do we know why Snake island is so strategically important?

It is critical that Russia is prevented from opening a new front on the SW coast. When taken together, the island attacks, the attack on the Moskva, the attack on the frigate two days ago, the drone attacks on the two fast boats, and apparently a third fast boat yesterday, seem to form a pattern.

These actions (along with the landing ship that exploded in port) have probably staved off Russia's opportunity to open a new front in the west.

All in all, Ukraine's military prowess is astounding.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 5:30 am

Francoflier wrote:
Do we know why Snake island is so strategically important?


If they can put SAMs and anti-ship missiles on snake Island, they can open up the sea lane to be able to export their grain from Odessa.

Not sure about the law of the sea, but I would assume once any cargo ship exit the Ukrainian coast, the Russian would not be able to touch it.

bt
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 6:58 am

Francoflier wrote:
Do we know why Snake island is so strategically important?
It has been in the spotlight since early in the war and may have some symbolic value, but would Ukrainian air assets not be better used striking Russian targets on the Eastern front?

I know that defending The southwestern coast is primordial, but Snake hardly seems like a suitable bridgehead for a land invasion of the area west of Odessa, especially given the state of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
That said, I'm obviously no military expert, even of the armchair variety.

A few posters addressed the military side of it, but I think it's something much bigger: Exclusive Economic Zone.

Territorial waters extend 12nm out, but the EEZ goes 200nm out! Take a look at the map and see where EEZs would be if Snake Island didn't exist, then see what the EEZs would look like with Snake Island under Ukrainian vs Russian control. Also realize there is supposedly a lot of off-shore natural gas in the area.

All this comes into play in the South China Sea. Much of the SCS is beyond any EEZ, but if China can create an island, even if it's 1 square meter, bam, 200nm EEZ in all directions (maybe less if it butts up against another country, then it splits the difference). Hence a lot of countries not recognizing man-made islands.

That's my understanding of EEZs, please someone let me know if I'm way off
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 7:39 am

If Russia keeps Crimea they will say that they have the EEZ rights.
In such cases, I believe that the guy with the biggest navy wins.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 7:56 am

Vintage wrote:
If Russia keeps Crimea they will say that they have the EEZ rights.
In such cases, I believe that the guy with the biggest navy wins.


Not sure if that is the case if your navy has a tendency of handing out submarine promotions like there is no tomorrow.

Edit: jokes aside, I believe there has been a huge paradigm shift in the relation between the Ukrainian Navy and the Russian Navy. Ukrainians have realised by necessity that they can do serious damage to Russian naval forces with own means (Neptune and TB2). As such, the balance of power has seriously been disturbed and the old adage of the biggest navy has the biggest power on sea does not fly...

Edit2: Helicopter blasted by TB2 on snake island; https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... 5225398274
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 8:18 am

It has also a value as exellent meat grinder for the Russians.
The Russians send in units and material and the Ukrainians will slaughter them when deployed earlier and allof the new latest attempts to reach the island, when they touch the ground of the island. or seconds before.

So Russia has already lost:
The cruiser Moskva (with their long ranje AA systems, it had to go to enable the attacks on the island)
2 patrol boats sunk, one at the shore of the island, the second while it tried to escape.Killed by TB2
One landing boat, while it triied to land at the pier. Killed by TB2
All AA equipment (2x Thor systems, Strela, command vehicles e.g.), killed by TB2
AA replacement sytems on the landing boat (shall have been a Thor), to replace the destroyed AA systems on Snake island. So also destroyed by TB2
Dozens of the staff on Snake island, killed by TB2
Recently bombed away most of the building on this island by Mig-27.

And now a Mil Mi-8, when it touched the ground, to deploy soldiers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ukw96f/a_ukrainian_tb2_bayraktar_attack_drone_strikes_a/

Regarding the recently hit frigate; seems it is wrong, it was not there and was not hit. So it has never been confirmed.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 2:34 pm

JonesNL wrote:

Vintage wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

DeltaMD90 wrote:


Thanks. All good points.
On the subject of EEZ, it does assume a degree of international recognition of the control of said territory, which would not be forthcoming as most nations would not recognize this occupation as legitimate. It would be a one sided claim and treated as such, much like most of the South China sea and Taiwan with China.

If we don't want to recreate an antiquated World order in which kings, dictators and autocratic rulers liberally use unprovoked violence and war to claim land and resources again (which seems to be happening now, mostly from 2 nations) by tacitly legitimizing these territorial claims, then this must never be acknowledged nor allowed to persist.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 3:01 pm

Vintage wrote:
If Russia keeps Crimea they will say that they have the EEZ rights.
In such cases, I believe that the guy with the biggest navy wins.

Crimea is definitely the biggest prize, but Snake Island does provide a little bit of coverage. If the war ultimately ends with Ukrainian recognition of Crimea (not far fetched) and Ukraine retains Snake Island, they will have a bit of the Black Sea in their EEZ.

But you are right, when there is a dispute, might makes right. That's why despite the international community saying China does not have territorial and EEZ claims to their manmade islands in the SCS, the weaker nearby countries have little recourse against the Chinese Navy and Chinese Coast Guard (yes CG, they view it as defense of their territory). And that's why the US Navy is so important in the region, they are essentially the navy of these small counties, but I digress
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 3:16 pm

That Island is perfect for a future drone based patrol squadron.

Fortify it like Gibraltar!

bt
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 5:30 pm

bikerthai wrote:
That Island is perfect for a future drone based patrol squadron.

Fortify it like Gibraltar!

bt


Post war naval development of UA army should be interesting. A destroyer, with Neptune missiles and drone control room(s) to take over control of drones that is stationed on snake island or other close to sea airport, should give them enough ordnance to dominate their portion of the Black sea…
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 6:38 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko ... 4266858496

This funny video does a good job summig up all the Russian attempts to hold on to Snake island.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 6:42 pm

JonesNL wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
That Island is perfect for a future drone based patrol squadron.

Fortify it like Gibraltar!

bt


Post war naval development of UA army should be interesting. A destroyer, with Neptune missiles and drone control room(s) to take over control of drones that is stationed on snake island or other close to sea airport, should give them enough ordnance to dominate their portion of the Black sea…

But as recent events have demonstrated, large ships are very vulnerable to well-targeted missiles, so it's a valid question whether Ukraine would really benefit from large, expensive ships compared to a more distributed approach based on drones, cruise missiles and a number of smaller boats for defense.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 6:51 pm

Klaus wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
That Island is perfect for a future drone based patrol squadron.

Fortify it like Gibraltar!

bt


Post war naval development of UA army should be interesting. A destroyer, with Neptune missiles and drone control room(s) to take over control of drones that is stationed on snake island or other close to sea airport, should give them enough ordnance to dominate their portion of the Black sea…

But as recent events have demonstrated, large ships are very vulnerable to well-targeted missiles, so it's a valid question whether Ukraine would really benefit from large, expensive ships compared to a more distributed approach based on drones, cruise missiles and a number of smaller boats for defense.


https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... th-the-uk/

Just before the war started, this is the type of ship that the UK was going to provide to Ukraine. Considering that they will be in severe financial difficulties after this war ends, these vessels are probably the biggest warships Ukraine will operate, along with a small number of corvettes built by Turkey. Remember, even if they were given an older warship for free, the maintenance and operating costs would still be astronomical.
Last edited by alberchico on Sun May 08, 2022 6:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 6:51 pm

Since shipping grain from Odessa will be important, they will end at least a coast guard cutter sized ship for maritime patrol.

All the defensive operations can be achieved using drones and maybe some serviceable P-3C with Harpoons and drone control capabilities.

bt
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 8:12 pm

T4thH wrote:
rubberdogdo wrote:
The pictures of Russians celebrating in Berlin made me sick to my stomach. Why is there nobody in the German government or society with the guts or fortitude to stand up to this unacceptable behaviour in the power centre of Europe. Get your act together Germany or face retribution unlike anything seen for many , many years.

Please note, just for you information: Germany is a democracy, and according to the basic law (Grundgesetz) of Germany (just remind, Germany has no constitution, and "basic law is far higher in worth than a constitution), they are allowed to do it. There is a right for "protest march" as long it is not forbidden. They have official requested for allowance, and it was not forbidden (as it would break the Grundgesetz). There must be a really important reason to stop it, and this was not the case (and as it was peaceful, it was correct.

When only 900 cars from whole Germany meets for one "protest march", than a democracy has to live with it and to accept it. This is the difference to a free democratic country and as example Putinistan or Erdogania. And even when 99.99% have a different opinion, also these 0.01 % have their rights and I am not willed to fuck the
Grundgesetz. It will get different, when they will start to show forbidden signs like the swastika or the will soon forbidden "Z".

Just for your information, soon it will be Eastern. We will see peace marches with few more than these shit 900 cars, collected from whole Germany for the pro Russia rally.


Here is a fresh example where some demonstrations have been banned for a limited period of time in Berlin.

Authorities in Berlin have banned Russian and Ukrainian flags from being flown near the city’s memorials this weekend as people commemorate the 77th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.


The police is justifying this ban as follows:
The act of remembering as well as the respect for memorials and monuments must be preserved against the background of Russia’s current war of aggression in Ukraine (...) The war must not be allowed to spill over into conflicts or disputes in Berlin beyond the democratic discourse.


https://www.politico.eu/article/berlin-ban-russia-ukraine-flag-memorial-world-war-ii/

This ban resulted in the Berlin police rolling up a giant Ukrainian flag today:
Police on Sunday rolled up a giant Ukrainian flag displayed by demonstrators at a Soviet War Memorial in central Berlin


https://www.thelocal.de/20220508/berlin-police-roll-up-ukraine-flag-at-wwii-ceremony/
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Klaus wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
That Island is perfect for a future drone based patrol squadron.

Fortify it like Gibraltar!

bt


Post war naval development of UA army should be interesting. A destroyer, with Neptune missiles and drone control room(s) to take over control of drones that is stationed on snake island or other close to sea airport, should give them enough ordnance to dominate their portion of the Black sea…

But as recent events have demonstrated, large ships are very vulnerable to well-targeted missiles, so it's a valid question whether Ukraine would really benefit from large, expensive ships compared to a more distributed approach based on drones, cruise missiles and a number of smaller boats for defense.


It would probably more effective to give the island to Romania, making it part of a NATO country and hence out of reach for Russia. All this without having to spend a single dollar for the protection of the island.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 9:41 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Vintage wrote:
If Russia keeps Crimea they will say that they have the EEZ rights.
In such cases, I believe that the guy with the biggest navy wins.

Crimea is definitely the biggest prize, but Snake Island does provide a little bit of coverage. If the war ultimately ends with Ukrainian recognition of Crimea (not far fetched) and Ukraine retains Snake Island, they will have a bit of the Black Sea in their EEZ.


I'd say it's very far fetched. Ukraine will at best agree to a ceasefire without solving the Crimea issue, there will not be an Ukrainian signature giving Crimea to Russia.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 10:14 pm

The scumbag, Murdoch owned, Wall street Journal is trying to sell divisiveness in Ukraine just as they have here among the people of the US.

Ukrainian Fighters Trapped in Mariupol’s Azovstal Plant Say Kyiv Abandoned Them
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trapped-uk ... 1652018896


IMO, this is lower than low. They have found, or invented, a couple of people trapped in the Azovstal steel plant who said something (I don't know what, I won't give the WSJ a dime, so I can't get past their paywall) that can be construed as being critical of Kiev.

Then along with that, they repeat that "U.S. intelligence helped to sink a Russian warship" which I suppose is a dog whistle to their Putin loving subscribers who oppose US support for Ukraine.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 08, 2022 11:33 pm

Vintage wrote:
The scumbag, Murdoch owned, Wall street Journal is trying to sell divisiveness in Ukraine just as they have here among the people of the US.

Ukrainian Fighters Trapped in Mariupol’s Azovstal Plant Say Kyiv Abandoned Them
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trapped-uk ... 1652018896


IMO, this is lower than low. They have found, or invented, a couple of people trapped in the Azovstal steel plant who said something (I don't know what, I won't give the WSJ a dime, so I can't get past their paywall) that can be construed as being critical of Kiev.

Then along with that, they repeat that "U.S. intelligence helped to sink a Russian warship" which I suppose is a dog whistle to their Putin loving subscribers who oppose US support for Ukraine.


Pretty minor though compared to the main offender of Logan Roy, I mean Rupert Murdoch's empire;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... chs-assets
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:12 am

https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT88/stat ... 2517976064

Damm. Looks like Russia is going for a full mobilization.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:28 am

Additional to the landing boat, that was destroyed at Snake island recently, on same day, additional two additional Raptor class patrol boats have beeb destroyed and a third hit on same day (also at/aroing Snake island).
They have started the war with 7 Raptor class patrol boats in the black sea; one got a ATGM near Marioupol beach through the hull and was towed away by the second Raptor on 21-Mar-2022, according Ukranian sources it was sunk, according Russian only damaged.
2 have been sunk by TB2 drone on 02-May-2022 near Snake island.
Two have been destroyed and seems one damaged (along with the destruction of the Serma Class landing boat) on 07-May-2022.
So of the 7 Raptor class boats in the Black sea, already 6 are out of duty as destroyed/sunk or damaged.
So the question is now, when Ukraine will finish the last one?
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:52 am

https://mobile.twitter.com/vcdgf555/sta ... 8584113152

Sorry it looks like the mobilization orders are a fake so please disregard my previous post above. This site should really allow posts to be edited for a longer time than they do now.
 
B717fan
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:58 am

So how long until this guy has a "falling out of the window" accident?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 1595242498
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 2:18 am

B717fan wrote:
So how long until this guy has a "falling out of the window" accident?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNe ... 1595242498

He had actually predicted the difficulties of an Ukraine invasion by Russia quite realistically (note the date!), especially criticizing the over-optimistic russian "expert" expectations at the time which apparently went into the poor planning of the invasion:
https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
(Read via Safari translation – Google Translate etc. should work, too.)

Most of what he had described there in early February has then in fact come to pass. He knows what he's talking about, and that likely applies to his new TV commentary as well.

One interesting question is whether that TV commentary is a sign that Putin is about to change course or that there are fissures among the leadership with some wanting such information aired even while Putin is still in his mental bunker and about to have his cancer surgery done.

All kinds of mishaps could occur during such surgery as everybody knows...
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 2:49 am

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1523406058584113152

Sorry it looks like the mobilization orders are a fake so please disregard my previous post above. This site should really allow posts to be edited for a longer time than they do now.


Unfortunately with longer editing times people would go back editing their posts in order to change what they said “see, I didn’t say that”…

It’s inconvenient for these times with information changing so fast. In the case something turns out wrong, just report your own post for deletion.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 4:40 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vya8YbN ... AOriginals

What an infuriating interview. Biden has done a damn good job managing this crisis. Getting most of Europe to stand united against Russia was one hell of an accomplishment. Putting NATO troops on the ground just prior to the invasion as a deterrent would have been one hell of a risk.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 6:35 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vya8YbN6SnI&list=LL&index=3&ab_channel=BloombergQuicktake%3AOriginals

What an infuriating interview. Biden has done a damn good job managing this crisis. Getting most of Europe to stand united against Russia was one hell of an accomplishment. Putting NATO troops on the ground just prior to the invasion as a deterrent would have been one hell of a risk.

You have a stronger stomach than me if you were able to watch that.

BTW
I've finally found out where the Russian celebration is going to be held in Mariupol - at the city center ( 47° 5'44.33"N 37°33'2.32"E) and I also know where the front lines are at their closest point to there (47°41'54.18"N 37°27'40.86"E).

So if the Ukrainian Army can place one of the new 155s a mile behind the line (to give it a little protection) and they used a few of the $68,000 apiece M982 Excalibur projectiles that I believe they have a few of, they could really screw up the victory parade in downtown Mariupol.

I will be watching the news for the next few hours, like a kid waiting for Santa.
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 6:48 am

Vintage wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vya8YbN6SnI&list=LL&index=3&ab_channel=BloombergQuicktake%3AOriginals

What an infuriating interview. Biden has done a damn good job managing this crisis. Getting most of Europe to stand united against Russia was one hell of an accomplishment. Putting NATO troops on the ground just prior to the invasion as a deterrent would have been one hell of a risk.

You have a stronger stomach than me if you were able to watch that.

BTW
I've finally found out where the Russian celebration is going to be held in Mariupol - at the city center ( 47° 5'44.33"N 37°33'2.32"E) and I also know where the front lines are at their closest point to there (47°41'54.18"N 37°27'40.86"E).

So if the Ukrainian Army can place one of the new 155s a mile behind the line (to give it a little protection) and they used a few of the $68,000 apiece M982 Excalibur projectiles that I believe they have a few of, they could really screw up the victory parade in downtown Mariupol.

I will be watching the news for the next few hours, like a kid waiting for Santa.


Ukraine would be handing Russia a plate full of civilian casualties. Russia has been known to "suggest" all kinds of civilians to attend certain events to pad the numbers if need be, I'm sure they want the Mariupol event to show support for their cause in Novorossiya.

Not good if you want to keep the moral high ground.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 11:11 am

Putin's "victory day" speech was remarkably bland and made no attempt to move the needle in any way – it was just a pretty tepid self-justification for the invasion, of course shifting all the blame to NATO and again completely ignoring the self-determination of Ukraine, but with no forward impetus under the already dire circumstances for the invasion troops.

To me it felt like a prelude to "hard truths" increasingly seeping into the official Kremlin statements from here on out as we've already seen above.

Interesting: Both in Moscow and in other cities the aerial displays were canceled with "weather" cited as the cause, but the weather was actually fine.

Looks like they're having trouble pulling enough assets together for these displays. Not at all the show of strength Putin would have liked – actually a pretty obvious embarrassment.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:05 pm

I think bad weather is an excuse for being afraid of aircraft getting shot down and/or lack of jet fuel.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 12:50 pm

And lack of aircraft and pilots.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 1:01 pm

I'd expect it's mostly lack of resources (including pilots), not daring to open their flank to the ukrainians by pulling relevant aircraft away from the war zone and readiness being limited even there. Maintenance resources may be increasingly problematic under sanctions conditions.

What they had been showing in previous years may actually have been much if not most of what was really in a fully airworthy state at the time...
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 1:15 pm

Aesma wrote:
And lack of aircraft and pilots.



They had already been extensively training for these flyby's during the last couple of days, so the aircraft and crews were already in place. They even were going to debut a flyby in a Z formation. Maybe it was the weather. The lack of any detailed plans from Putin on where he plans to take this war was disappointing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-05/ ... c_news_web
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 2:29 pm

Watched the speech - talked about the decadent Western culture and the need to protect Russian customs and traditions. Yet all those recent videos of interviews with Russian college students who look exactly like college students in the West.

MTV started that fire. - Billy Joel
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 5:22 pm

alberchico wrote:
Aesma wrote:
And lack of aircraft and pilots.



They had already been extensively training for these flyby's during the last couple of days, so the aircraft and crews were already in place. They even were going to debut a flyby in a Z formation. Maybe it was the weather. The lack of any detailed plans from Putin on where he plans to take this war was disappointing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-05/ ... c_news_web

According news, it was a nice blue sky with some clouds and a small amount of wind, even better than last days. So impossible to fly,......

So no, this was not the reason.
 
B717fan
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 5:32 pm

Seems the Russian ambassador to Poland didn't get such a warm welcome in Warsaw.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... t-84587967
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 5:39 pm

T4thH wrote:
According news, it was a nice blue sky with some clouds and a small amount of wind, even better than last days. So impossible to fly,......

So no, this was not the reason.

Um not sure what kind of NATO propaganda you're spewing. The weather was horrible, in fact, it was the same weather system from the Black Sea, the storm that sank the Moskva!
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 5:54 pm

Found this on Twitter, Someone did a David Attenborough style video about Russian tanks. :shock: :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1523664324950036480
 
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bikerthai
Posts: 6140
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 5:56 pm

Thanks to the weather app we all can look for ourselves. My app is telling me weather over Mariupol is hazy but not quite stormy weather. There is a front moving thu though. Weather around Moscow is a different matter.

Other parts of Ukraine looks quite pleasant. Better than in my area at least.

bt
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 6:01 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Found this on Twitter, Someone did a David Attenborough style video about Russian tanks. :shock: :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1523664324950036480


Living here in salmon country, I can really appreciate that video. :mrgreen:

What is shown is the Sockeye species. The larger Chinook variety sports the 152 mm snout. The smaller Coho have round tires instead of tracks. . .

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 6:55 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According news, it was a nice blue sky with some clouds and a small amount of wind, even better than last days. So impossible to fly,......

So no, this was not the reason.

Um not sure what kind of NATO propaganda you're spewing. The weather was horrible, in fact, it was the same weather system from the Black Sea, the storm that sank the Moskva!

Ah, you mean this horrible storm with the gigantic 10 cm high freak waves and thousands of them, what I have said, millions.....You are right, every NATO ship would have been already sunk in the first second, only the greatest of all ships, the Russian pride of the sea, the Moskva, could survive this horrible conditions for hours....
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And now something totally different.

According Russian news, Ukrainian forces have tried a landing operation on Snake island, which was repelled? Does someone have some information or videos from Russian site?
According Russian site, the whole Ukranian army has been destroyed....
4 jets shot down (3x SU 24 and 1x Su27), 30 drones, 3x Mil mi 8 and 1x Mil mi 24 and 3x armored landing boats of type Kentaur sunk...and more than 50 soldiers killed.

Source in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/20-30-Moskau-Landungsversuch-auf-Schlangeninsel-abgewehrt--article23143824.html

Alone the 30 drones....Till now, there is the visual confirmation of 21 shot down drones by Russian site. But every shot down drone has been seen several times staged as new shot downs.,...(cover the serial numbers folks).
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 7:08 pm

T4thH wrote:
And now something totally different.

According Russian news, Ukrainian forces have tried a landing operation on Snake island, which was repelled? Does someone have some information or videos from Russian site?
According Russian site, the whole Ukranian army has been destroyed....
4 jets shot down (3x SU 24 and 1x Su27), 30 drones, 3x Mil mi 8 and 1x Mil mi 24 and 3x armored landing boats of type Kentaur sunk...and more than 50 soldiers killed.

Source in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/20-30-Moskau-Landungsversuch-auf-Schlangeninsel-abgewehrt--article23143824.html

I heard something like this a few days ago, I think it's Russian cope. Something about all the stuff being bombed on Snake Island actually being the Ukrainians, they tried to retake the island and were repelled.

Sounds like BS but who knows. Honestly, and sadly, the truth doesn't even matter, it's probably being swallowed hook, line, and sinker by the Russian populace
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 7:22 pm

Also, in regards to Snake Island, while I do think Ukraine will eventually try and capture the island, I'm not sure why they would attempt to hold it now. Seems like they'd be sitting ducks.

It's not outside the realm of possibility, they have been bombing the island, but I heard "reports" of the Ukrainians trying to capture the island before the Mi-8 video came out (IIRC). I'm not buying it
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 841
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 7:38 pm

T4thH wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According news, it was a nice blue sky with some clouds and a small amount of wind, even better than last days. So impossible to fly,......

So no, this was not the reason.

Um not sure what kind of NATO propaganda you're spewing. The weather was horrible, in fact, it was the same weather system from the Black Sea, the storm that sank the Moskva!

Ah, you mean this horrible storm with the gigantic 10 cm high freak waves and thousands of them, what I have said, millions.....You are right, every NATO ship would have been already sunk in the first second, only the greatest of all ships, the Russian pride of the sea, the Moskva, could survive this horrible conditions for hours....
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And now something totally different.

According Russian news, Ukrainian forces have tried a landing operation on Snake island, which was repelled? Does someone have some information or videos from Russian site?
According Russian site, the whole Ukranian army has been destroyed....
4 jets shot down (3x SU 24 and 1x Su27), 30 drones, 3x Mil mi 8 and 1x Mil mi 24 and 3x armored landing boats of type Kentaur sunk...and more than 50 soldiers killed.

Source in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/20-30-Moskau-Landungsversuch-auf-Schlangeninsel-abgewehrt--article23143824.html

Alone the 30 drones....Till now, there is the visual confirmation of 21 shot down drones by Russian site. But every shot down drone has been seen several times staged as new shot downs.,...(cover the serial numbers folks).
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html



Ah ummmmmmmm I’m no general but why would Ukraine try to do something the russians tried twice and failed both times??? I get the importance of the island, but why would they risk (what I would assume) large percentage of their aerial force at this point!

Unless it was a prorussian general, who then should be hanged for treason. But I even doubt that.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 10:37 pm

On the frontline;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v1vrxbk9EE

While it's great that US, Canadian, Austrian 155mm guns have/are being delivered and I've seem one M777 video of it in use in Ukraine, with more inbound from the US, UK, France and likely needing the most training for, the Pzh2000's.
But as this report shows, like in all wars, you fight with what you have, while more/better equipment is deployed, never all at once though.
 
roadrunner165
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 11:04 pm

B717fan wrote:
Seems the Russian ambassador to Poland didn't get such a warm welcome in Warsaw.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... t-84587967



After watching this video, I've got some serious reservations about it. Quite frankly, it looks staged to me. From the guy chanting with this fist raised, next to ambassador, yet never gets in the guys face. Then there is another guy off to the right who wipes the blood on his face after. Speaking from experience, if you've just had an unknown substance hit your hand, you don't wipe your face. And then there's the fact that the ambassador seems to sit and take it, while his bodyguards stand by idle. My guess, it's all for show. I don't doubt that it happened, its certainly not fake, but its not a real attack either.
 
Vintage
Posts: 629
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:48 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 11:27 pm

GDB wrote:
likely needing the most training for, the Pzh2000's

Not you, but others here and elsewhere make too big of a deal about this IMO.

The training needed in order to use an artillery piece effectively, is 95% in the locating the piece and the locating of the target and then doing the calculations needed to point the howitzer in the right direction (azmuth) and deciding how big of a charge to use, and what elevation to give the shot (range). All this is the same for every howitzer; be they 152mm or 155mm: ballistic trajectory calculations never change.

Part of the above is the use of charts and graphs for the older stuff, or the computer software that the more modern stuff uses. The software is surely designed to have the simplest user interface possible and after you have mastered one type, all the others will work about the same. All of this is done by one person, the battery commander, and I would bet that anybody who already has been trained to be a fire control officer could be cross trained on any new system in a single day.

The other 5% of training is needed for the grunts who do the physical work, and all that is also pretty much the same from one howitzer to another, probably a couple of hours total is needed for a crew.

The Pzh2000 also involves a truck with a diesel engine, so there's that. If Pzh2000s are lemons this might be the biggest problem, but the Germans seem to know how to build motor vehicles (if they can ever get the door latches and trunk locks right).
 
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alberchico
Topic Author
Posts: 3693
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:52 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 09, 2022 11:54 pm

https://web.archive.org/web/20220509071 ... en_pobedy/

A Russian news site published this before it was very quickly taken down. Luckily an archived version still exists. Google should automatically translate it when you open it. Brave people, to be writing this while inside Russia.

A quote:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin bears full responsibility for the senseless and bloody war against Ukraine. Guided by far-fetched pretexts about threats to Russia, the head of state plunged two neighboring peoples into a war in which there will be no winners - only losers. The president's decision will cost the country isolation, poverty and a rollback to the very 90s that Putin loves to scare Russians with. In the more than 20 years of his reign, the head of state has turned into a dictator who began to believe in conspiracy theories and lost touch with reality. Right now, Putin is depriving millions of Russians of their future and taking the lives of innocent Ukrainians. Vladimir Putin must immediately stop the war and resign."
Last edited by alberchico on Mon May 09, 2022 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 10, 2022 3:06 am

Uh oh, while not surprising, I hope this does not come to pass:

Oleksandr Lashyn, Councilman from Mariupol, said, citing his sources, that Russian occupation forces are planning to deploy chemical weapons in an attack on Ukrainian soldiers defending the Azovstal steel works on 11 May.

Quote from Lashyn: "I have just found out from sources in Mariupol who contacted me that a powerful chemical attack on Azovstal is being prepared for 11 May.

Local residents in Mariupol are warned not to leave their houses starting tomorrow: they [Russian troops] want to smoke our guys, our heroes, out from Azovstal. All of their efforts have been in vain so far, so they’re planning to take such genocidal measures as powerful chemical weapons."


https://news.yahoo.com/mariupol-council ... 48149.html

Using chemical weapons is probably one of the most effective ways to kill these pesky defenders. Also suggests they cannot remove the defenders or it will result in unacceptable losses (even for Russian standards).

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