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Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 11:22 am

alberchico wrote:
This fascinating article from 1987 written by a former West German chancellor explains the Russian mindset. I think his views are mostly correct, but very politically incorrect to say out loud.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeLoveNATO/s ... 1083881472

The full article is in German but google should auto translate it just fine:

https://de.style.yahoo.com/style/35-jah ... ccounter=2

This resonates with these insightful threads by a russian analyst, who adds a lot more internal context on the why and how:
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/kamilkazani
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 1:08 pm

Disposing of unexploded munitions, including a not very shaggy dog story;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pdKkarXJG8

alberchico wrote:
This fascinating article from 1987 written by a former West German chancellor explains the Russian mindset. I think his views are mostly correct, but very politically incorrect to say out loud.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeLoveNATO/s ... 1083881472

The full article is in German but google should auto translate it just fine:

https://de.style.yahoo.com/style/35-jah ... ccounter=2


Schmitt was well respected in the UK, by such different PM's as Thatcher and her predecessor Callaghan (who became close friends with him), certainly compared to the next SPD Chancellor. Merkel his successor has taken a lot of often justified flak over her stance with Russia, at least she wasn't doing it to enrich herself however.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 4:40 pm

 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 4:57 pm

It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 5:12 pm

High ranking war criminal identified;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGdRYGETTnk

Much further down the ranks, first trial;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD_VYfpHWYM

Self preservation mainly driving this, though maybe also fear in some cases of becoming a POW if you've done some war crimes yourself first time out;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 5:28 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?


Probably a move to negotiate consensions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 6:46 pm

Aesma wrote:
I guess the definition of "dual use" might expand, causing headaches.

Unfortunately, we must expand the definition of dual use technology and impose secondary sanctions on anyone trading that stuff with Russia.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 9:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I guess the definition of "dual use" might expand, causing headaches.

Unfortunately, we must expand the definition of dual use technology and impose secondary sanctions on anyone trading that stuff with Russia.


I wonder who decides what "dual use" is. Food for a starving population can also be used to keep soldiers ready for battle. Russians steal Ukrainian grain and sell it in other countries such as Syria. Who believes that simple things like a washing machine or dishwasher or cars don't belong there? Yesterday a woman who escaped from the Ukraine told me that the Russians only target the electronics to repair their military equipment. In my opinion everything, yes everything should be stopped because only when the large population suffers will there be an about-face. Everything else helps Putin continue to fool his people.
As a note, I spent time in Russia for a number of years and not as a tourist. There are also very, yes, very warm-hearted Russians for whom I have sympathy. Unfortunately, there are far too few who will also suffer from it
And lightsaber I hope your sister is fine !!!
 
AtomicGarden
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 10:07 pm

bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?


Probably a move to negotiate consensions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt


Can NATO members sign bilateral security agreements with non members? I can definetely see US-CAN-UK-Norway-Poland telling Finland & Sweden that they will be protected in case of an agression.

Anyway I believe that by this time, if Russia were to follow with its threats and attack another European nation, even not a NATO member, the alliance might say that they have had enough.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 11:09 pm

AtomicGarden wrote:
Can NATO members sign bilateral security agreements with non members? I


The UK already did.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... n-finland/

https://news.usni.org/2022/05/12/u-k-wi ... er-wallace

The US could also do it, except any treaty requires Congressional approval and Finland and Sweden would already be a NATO member by the time Cogress vote on the treaty. :roll:

bt
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 13, 2022 11:17 pm

AtomicGarden wrote:

Can NATO members sign bilateral security agreements with non members? I can definetely see US-CAN-UK-Norway-Poland telling Finland & Sweden that they will be protected in case of an agression.
I would add Denmark to that list. They gave quite a bit of equipment to the Baltic states when they became members.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 12:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I guess the definition of "dual use" might expand, causing headaches.

Unfortunately, we must expand the definition of dual use technology and impose secondary sanctions on anyone trading that stuff with Russia.

There were already sanctions since 2014, and the chips from old dishwashers and washing machines are now found in the tanks. So they are doing it since 2014.
But with the new sanctions now, it is different. As I have read, production of tanks, jets, helicopters is already stopped as also for all smart weapons, cruise missiles and smart bombs, ATGMs. For all of these they need parts from the west, they do not get any more.

But do not fear, they have enough equipment left....
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/up3u9n/this_is_what_the_ukrainian_army_is_facing_now_dpr/
And no, this is not a historic film from WW2, this is now, these are conscripts of the separatists (DPR).
Seems that even the AK47 are out and they have the nice steel pots on the heads...
So the rifles are Mosin Nagant, first produced 1891...and last (as sniper rifle) in 1965. But these are not the sniper versions...

When the will start to throw stones...
 
af773atmsp
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:03 am

 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 5:25 am

A third try at the pontoon bridgehead?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 399440.amp

Reminds me of the opening scene of "Enemy at the Gate".

Historical trivia. The real life sniper portraited by the movie died in Kyiv.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Zaitsev_(sniper)

bt
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:58 am

oldJoe wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I guess the definition of "dual use" might expand, causing headaches.

Unfortunately, we must expand the definition of dual use technology and impose secondary sanctions on anyone trading that stuff with Russia.


I wonder who decides what "dual use" is. Food for a starving population can also be used to keep soldiers ready for battle. Russians steal Ukrainian grain and sell it in other countries such as Syria. Who believes that simple things like a washing machine or dishwasher or cars don't belong there? Yesterday a woman who escaped from the Ukraine told me that the Russians only target the electronics to repair their military equipment. In my opinion everything, yes everything should be stopped because only when the large population suffers will there be an about-face. Everything else helps Putin continue to fool his people.
As a note, I spent time in Russia for a number of years and not as a tourist. There are also very, yes, very warm-hearted Russians for whom I have sympathy. Unfortunately, there are far too few who will also suffer from it
And lightsaber I hope your sister is fine !!!


Correct. Russia weaponized food (and stole a lot in the process). Denial of weapons to russian enemy is legitimate, even if it means their population has no food.

Regarding harvesting of washing machines -- I wonder if it's a new thing. Up to more or less now, those washing machines were literally built inside russia:
https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung ... -to-europe

Even after this war began in February 2014, OEM's continued investing into russia:
https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung ... -in-russia
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 10:59 am

According to here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -says-live

"Russian Su-27 fighter jets have taken part in drills to repel a mock air strike on Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the Interfax news agency reports, citing the Baltic Sea fleet."

I wonder if a JDAM (max range 28km) could hit targets in the Kaliningrad enclave without leaving Poland/Lithuania airspace.
But looking at the airfields there, they are mostly central so something with a longer range would bd needed if you wanted stand-off.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 12:15 pm

What an unbelievable mess, take a look at some of these pictures of the river crossings! (No blood/bodies, just destroyed equipment):

https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/ ... 1204239361

I'm sure most of us have seen some of these pics, but take a look at the third post (the post after the two posts with four pictures each). WTF?? Is this picture real? Did they just drive their tanks into the river enmasse and drown themselves? What is going on?

I'm at a loss for words
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 1:32 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
What an unbelievable mess, take a look at some of these pictures of the river crossings! (No blood/bodies, just destroyed equipment):

https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/ ... 1204239361

I'm sure most of us have seen some of these pics, but take a look at the third post (the post after the two posts with four pictures each). WTF?? Is this picture real? Did they just drive their tanks into the river enmasse and drown themselves? What is going on?

I'm at a loss for words

They had lost, had tro retreat and these tanks were on the wrong site of the river. You do not want to leave the tanks on the wrong site or intact, so the enemy will use them.
You can destroy them with fire or explosives, but this the enemy will recognize and start to follow you or start to send artillery shells....Or you drive them with open hatches and running engines into the river, the engines take water through the air intakes, water will not be compressed and the cylinders will crash.-> engine gone. Computers, electronic equipment and optics do not like water, so also gone.
It will need several month to years to repair them (but it is possible). But they will not be seen in this war again.
And they are now in the middle of the river, so between the frontlines. So as long, the frontline does not move, you can take care, the other site can not get them.

So I think, this was the only smart thing, the Russians have done here, this was the "only success" in this fail.
But the question is, regular these tanks shall be equipped with the basic snorkling equipment, to cross flat rivers...they were at a flat river and they have tried to cross it over the ponton bridge, but even than, they shall have them with them, so where is it?
Last edited by T4thH on Sat May 14, 2022 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 1:33 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
What an unbelievable mess, take a look at some of these pictures of the river crossings! (No blood/bodies, just destroyed equipment):

https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/ ... 1204239361

I'm sure most of us have seen some of these pics, but take a look at the third post (the post after the two posts with four pictures each). WTF?? Is this picture real? Did they just drive their tanks into the river enmasse and drown themselves? What is going on?

I'm at a loss for words


Perhaps they wanted to scuttle the tanks so the Ukrainians couldn't use them. If they were unable to use the pontoon bridge to evacuate, perhaps they wanted to make sure the Ukrainians would not be able to use them against Russian forces.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 1:45 pm

Would the river be moving too fast for snorkeling? You can see the ripples in the water from the current.

How fast can a BMP move in still water vs how fast that current is moving?

Maybe the sunken tanks were just to gum up the river bank so much that the Russian generals would not force them to try and make a 4th attempt?

Found a live video of the area with vehicle moving in the river and live round impact.

https://youtu.be/kYI2yNyiWUY
bt
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 2:47 pm

Ah, scuttling them actually makes a lot of sense.

Still, what devastating losses. Even this late into the war, Russia is finding new ways to impress me with their incompetence.

I closed the source and can't find it, but I hear the Ukrainians may have started an offensive against Izyum.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 3:49 pm

A while back a Russian official made a statement about Israel/jews/hitler or something like that and today Israel have agreed
to allow Estonia to supply Ukraine with Blue Spear anti ship missile system. Perhaps this is Israel's revenge for the Russian statement?

Israel agreed to Estonia's request to equip Ukraine with the Blue Spear (5G SSM) land-to-sea missile system, Ukrainian journalist Rostyslav Demchuk reported on Friday.

Estonia, which purchased an unspecified number of Blue Spear systems from its manufacturer Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) in October 2021,
asked Israel for its authorization to transfer one of the systems to Ukraine's Armed Forces, currently defending Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

Israel complied with the Baltic nation's request, according to Demchuk.


https://www.jpost.com/international/article-706661
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 3:52 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I closed the source and can't find it, but I hear the Ukrainians may have started an offensive against Izyum.


Saw something about that in The Wall Street Journal. Behind pay wall though.

bt
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 3:57 pm

bikerthai wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
I closed the source and can't find it, but I hear the Ukrainians may have started an offensive against Izyum.


Saw something about that in The Wall Street Journal. Behind pay wall though.

bt

Reported by the BBC @ 13:42 BST (12:42UTC)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:07 pm

At the beginning of this war I took a lot of flak for suggesting that Ukraine needed to be prepared to surrender some territory as a concession to give Putin an exit ramp, but now it turns out that world leaders such as Macron were thinking along those same lines.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/z ... territory/

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/s ... 6547477504
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:18 pm

alberchico wrote:
At the beginning of this war I took a lot of flak for suggesting that Ukraine needed to be prepared to surrender some territory as a concession to give Putin an exit ramp, but now it turns out that world leaders such as Macron were thinking along those same lines.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/z ... territory/

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/s ... 6547477504


You still don't get it. There cannot be any territorial concessions.Not Donbas, not Crimea. It will only send a signal to Russia that
hey we can invade another country and keep territorial gains. The Ukrainians will not and should not stop until the Russians have been evicted.
It is easy to sit in Paris far away from the Russian border and tell the Ukrainians to give some territory to Russia. How about we give some French
territory to Russia? How would Macrons feel about that? We cannot give in now because then Russian will try this again.
Donbas and Crimea belongs to Ukraine, not Russia. And no I don't think Russia needs an off ramp.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:21 pm

Macron is threading a middle ground to keep Putin talking. I'm sure he expected such an answer from Ukraine.

Even if land is surrendered in practice, it won't be on a treaty.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:27 pm

Aesma wrote:
Macron is threading a middle ground to keep Putin talking. I'm sure he expected such an answer from Ukraine.

Even if land is surrendered in practice, it won't be on a treaty.

G7 have all stated today that none of them will ever recognise any part of Ukraine (inc Crimea) as Russian unless they are returned properly to Ukraine first.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 4:38 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
You still don't get it. There cannot be any territorial concessions.Not Donbas, not Crimea. It will only send a signal to Russia that
hey we can invade another country and keep territorial gains. The Ukrainians will not and should not stop until the Russians have been evicted.
It is easy to sit in Paris far away from the Russian border and tell the Ukrainians to give some territory to Russia. How about we give some French
territory to Russia? How would Macrons feel about that? We cannot give in now because then Russian will try this again.
Donbas and Crimea belongs to Ukraine, not Russia. And no I don't think Russia needs an off ramp.

You are right. February 24th changed everything. As long as Putin remains in power there can be no negotiating with him. You cannot negotiate with someone who cannot be trusted. This has to a fight to the finish, and there must be a lot of people in Moscow who realise this. Russia's reputation has been trashed, both politically and militarily. There must be a lot of unease among Putin's subordinates -- people who realise he is the one who has got them into this almighty mess. He will have to go, one way or another.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 5:32 pm

bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?


Probably a move to negotiate consensions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt


Its a mixed bag; on one side Turkeys actions do not align completely with NATO, on the other side it’s one off the most battle experienced and strongest armies in the alliance in a strategic location…
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 5:40 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
You still don't get it. There cannot be any territorial concessions.Not Donbas, not Crimea. It will only send a signal to Russia that
hey we can invade another country and keep territorial gains. The Ukrainians will not and should not stop until the Russians have been evicted.
It is easy to sit in Paris far away from the Russian border and tell the Ukrainians to give some territory to Russia. How about we give some French
territory to Russia? How would Macrons feel about that? We cannot give in now because then Russian will try this again.
Donbas and Crimea belongs to Ukraine, not Russia. And no I don't think Russia needs an off ramp.

You are right. February 24th changed everything. As long as Putin remains in power there can be no negotiating with him. You cannot negotiate with someone who cannot be trusted. This has to a fight to the finish, and there must be a lot of people in Moscow who realise this. Russia's reputation has been trashed, both politically and militarily. There must be a lot of unease among Putin's subordinates -- people who realise he is the one who has got them into this almighty mess. He will have to go, one way or another.

Sooner or later there will be talks between Russia and Ukraine and don’t be surprised Putin is still in charge. In geopolitics you have to negotiate with everyone, even it’s the devil himself. First negotiate a deal and then get rid of him.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 6:04 pm

marcelh wrote:
Sooner or later there will be talks between Russia and Ukraine and don’t be surprised Putin is still in charge. In geopolitics you have to negotiate with everyone, even it’s the devil himself. First negotiate a deal and then get rid of him.

Actually:
1. Fight them until they have to surrender (see WWII) or at least until their leverage is gone.
2. Negotiate terms.
3. Leave regime change to their own population / political class.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 6:27 pm

JonesNL wrote:
on the other side it’s one off the most battle experienced and strongest armies in the alliance in a strategic location…
But is that as important now that we know that Russia isn't all that they were cracked up to be? We'd lose control of the Bosporus but with Finland and Sweden, the Baltic would be a complete NATO lake. The Baltic fleet would be toothless and it's bigger and more important than the Black Sea fleet. It would also move NATO closer to the Kola Peninsula, which is very strategically important.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 7:20 pm

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/1 ... ent-begins

Here is some info on the Izyum counter offensive.

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 7:20 pm

I don't think Turkey would ever want to quit NATO and then have a Greece as a NATO member on their border.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:04 pm

Interesting and (long) video of Ukraine 93 brigade (so home defence) . Original with subtritle.
In the second half, there us also a part of an Ukraine SPG unit and their problems vwith Russian counter artillary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y1q8PwwNtY&t=9s
Last edited by T4thH on Sat May 14, 2022 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:16 pm

bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?


Probably a move to negotiate concessions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt


Sweden and Finland will remember that when it comes to Turkish EU membership............
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:29 pm

marcelh wrote:
Sooner or later there will be talks between Russia and Ukraine and don’t be surprised Putin is still in charge. In geopolitics you have to negotiate with everyone, even it’s the devil himself. First negotiate a deal and then get rid of him.

Putin is on the back foot, and everyone, including himself, knows it. And Ukraine -- fair play to them -- are in no mood to negotiate, despite the devastation wreaked by Russia, killing tens of thousands of their people. That has simply emboldened them. Look at Putin now compared to the swaggering, bombastic little creep he was at the stadium event to celebrate the eight-year anniversary of the annexation of Ukraine. He is now much diminished: bellicose statements have been replaced by vague threats and slaps on the wrist. Cutting off electricity to Finland? Wow. He doesn't even seem to know what to do anymore. No more the strongman, strutting the world's stage. He's a grimacing and trembling pathetic little wreck in public now: a bloated old man who needs a blanket on his knees to keep him warm. He did nothing, as was expected, after that May 9th parade. He's weak, he's stuck, and he knows it. So do his generals, some of whom are furious at the humiliation he's brought to their country, not to mention the embarrassment about the performance of their army.

Why would anyone need, or want, to negotiate with him?
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:37 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
It's due to their offering asylum to people Turkey calls terrorists. Can we boot out Turkey?


Probably a move to negotiate concessions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt


Sweden and Finland will remember that when it comes to Turkish EU membership............

That is completely off the table with Erdogan behaving like a regular tinpot dictator. A restart of the negotiations would at the very least require Turkey to have a stable democracy with solid rule of law which it most certainly does not at this time!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:52 pm

No country will join the EU as long as the decision mechanism hasn't been changed, and apparently 13 countries want to veto such a change (that has been approved by the European people through the parliament).

Turkey has other problems making it an unlikely entrant, starting with the fact its entry would dramatically change the demographics of the union.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 8:53 pm

T4thH wrote:
Interesting and (long) video of Ukraine 93 brigade (so home defence) . Original with subtritle.
In the second half, there us also a part of an Ukraine SPG unit and their problems vwith Russian counter artillary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y1q8PwwNtY&t=9s


Excellent video. You can see what all the military analyst was talking about how the NCO core runs the Ukrainain army.

You see the young platoon leader and the old wiley sargent rung the show.

bt
 
AtomicGarden
Posts: 448
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 14, 2022 10:55 pm

As I see it, there is an "upside" (if at all) for Ukraine. They cannot make a wrong choice. Wanna call it quits and negotiate some land? we understand. Gonna try and fight till the end? we got you, says the world.

I am reading a book about Churchill's early days in WWII (on which the movie Darkest Hours is based on) and there are so many similarities between this war and the Nazi invasion of western Europe. Macron sounded a lot like Lord Halifax and Chamberlain this time.
 
cpd
Posts: 7237
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 12:02 am

Klaus wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Sooner or later there will be talks between Russia and Ukraine and don’t be surprised Putin is still in charge. In geopolitics you have to negotiate with everyone, even it’s the devil himself. First negotiate a deal and then get rid of him.

Actually:
1. Fight them until they have to surrender (see WWII) or at least until their leverage is gone.
2. Negotiate terms.
3. Leave regime change to their own population / political class.


True. Russia has only its nuclear arsenal now to terrorise people with. Now it is ramping up rhetoric against UK threatening to turn it into a wasteland:

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/in ... 6f6d761bf0

And welcome back to the topic Marcelh. You disappeared for a while.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 1045
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 12:43 am

marcelh wrote :
Sooner or later there will be talks between Russia and Ukraine and don’t be surprised Putin is still in charge. In geopolitics you have to negotiate with everyone, even it’s the devil himself. First negotiate a deal and then get rid of him.


Yes, sooner or later there will be negotiations between the two. Ukrainian negotiators are the gentlemen: M777, PzH 2000, Ceasar from France or Brimstone from UK, Dana etc. with all their negotiators like Javelin, NLAW etc. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin was still there, no, it's even desirable and me would like to be a fly in his room to see the true expression on his face, or even get lynched by his own people. His army of vodka bottles, which can only murder or rape civilians or bomb them from afar, won't get him and his would-be parrots out of there.
 
Vintage
Posts: 395
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:48 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 4:26 am

The NASA FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) (which is used to track wildfires) website shows a hot spot at 49°48'26.71"N 37° 2'1.95"E and surprise! that spot happens to be exactly where we expect that the Ukrainian offensive in the Izyum area to be taking place.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... 1,50.0,10z

The hot spot is on the Russian side of yesterday's front lines, so I'll assume that the heat is coming from burning Russian vehicles.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 709
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 7:37 am

johns624 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
on the other side it’s one off the most battle experienced and strongest armies in the alliance in a strategic location…
But is that as important now that we know that Russia isn't all that they were cracked up to be? We'd lose control of the Bosporus but with Finland and Sweden, the Baltic would be a complete NATO lake. The Baltic fleet would be toothless and it's bigger and more important than the Black Sea fleet. It would also move NATO closer to the Kola Peninsula, which is very strategically important.


If that wasn’t important Sweden and Finland wouldn’t want to join so badly…
 
JonesNL
Posts: 709
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 7:40 am

Klaus wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

Probably a move to negotiate concessions.
You would think NATO would be more willing to trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey even of it means losing control of the Bosporus Straight. And Turkey knows it.

bt


Sweden and Finland will remember that when it comes to Turkish EU membership............

That is completely off the table with Erdogan behaving like a regular tinpot dictator. A restart of the negotiations would at the very least require Turkey to have a stable democracy with solid rule of law which it most certainly does not at this time!


Exactly, that ship has sailed and will not come back until there are radical reforms within Turkey…
 
User avatar
Braybuddy
Posts: 7127
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 1:12 pm

After the three failed river crossings, Russian soldiers seem to be getting wary:

On the ground, the governor of the eastern Lugansk region, Serhiy Gaidai, said Ukrainian forces had prevented Russian attempts to cross a river and encircle the city of Severodonetsk. "There's heavy fighting on the border with Donetsk region," Gaidai said, reporting major Russian losses of equipment and personnel. "From interceptions [of phone calls], we understand that a whole [Russian] battalion has refused to attack because they see what's happening."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... its-a77681
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 15468
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 1:28 pm

We're talking about the governor that Ukraine backs, that isn't actually in Lugansk, since that is under Russian control since 2014, right ?
 
T4thH
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 2:56 pm

Now first time seen, Russia is bringing the BMPT to the frontline.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/uq1p2k/footage_of_the_90th_tank_division_bmpt_tank/

The good thing is, I was now able to identify all the secret Russians plans behind it....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o

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