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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 4:49 pm

If the Ukraine military is this good and or the Russian military so poor, would I be correct in assuming that the only reason why Crimea remained in Russians hands since 2014 is because of the Ukrainians forces who are aligned with Russia?
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 6:06 pm

par13del wrote:
If the Ukraine military is this good and or the Russian military so poor, would I be correct in assuming that the only reason why Crimea remained in Russians hands since 2014 is because of the Ukrainians forces who are aligned with Russia?

That there have been 8 years of drawing the right conclusions from that last invasion might have more to do with it, really.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 6:31 pm

Klaus wrote:
par13del wrote:
If the Ukraine military is this good and or the Russian military so poor, would I be correct in assuming that the only reason why Crimea remained in Russians hands since 2014 is because of the Ukrainians forces who are aligned with Russia?

That there have been 8 years of drawing the right conclusions from that last invasion might have more to do with it, really.

8 years ago, the Ukrainian army was...sorry to say...a pile of shit. If Putin had decided to march through the whole Ukraine 8 years ago...3 days to Kiev, 1 month for the whole Ukraine, no problem. And most Ukrainians would have not fought for their country many (perhaps most) would have been neutral or even happy to be part of Russia again. 8 additonal years of democracy. 8 years of civil war in Donbas, 8 years of preparation of Ukraine and the Ukrainian army for the big Russian-Ukrainian war, has changed everything. Now there is a new and modern highly experienced well trained light and fast army, with more Spesznaz special forces, Russia has, many well equipped paramilitary police units, and a high motivated home defence force with high number of veterans of the 8 years of Donbas civil war....And they are all willed to defend their home country against the occupiers.

Russia has not improved in the last 8 years, more corruption in the army, upgrading of the army has more or less stopped with the Crimea and Donbas occupation (and the first sanctions), a vwhole amount of smart bombs and ammunition has been spent (and later not refilled) in Syria,
They have (now had, they are gone) more cruise missile, that`s it.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 9:19 pm

Apparently Ukrainian artillery is hitting inside Russia in the area above Kharkiv.
The FIRMS sites reports a hot spot at 50.23892 36.62459, which is about 20 miles NNE of Karkiv and one mile inside the Russian border.

There are also several other hot spots in the area above Karkiv within Ukraine.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 9:22 pm

Vintage wrote:
Apparently Ukrainian artillery is hitting inside Russia in the area above Kharhiv.
The FIRMS sites reports a hot spot at 50.23892 36.62459, which is about 20 miles NNE of Karhiv and one mile inside the Russian border.

There are also several other hot spots in the area above Karhiv within Ukraine.

Do those sensors only pick up target explosions or also missile launches, for instance?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 10:00 pm

Klaus wrote:
Vintage wrote:
Apparently Ukrainian artillery is hitting inside Russia in the area above Kharhiv.
The FIRMS sites reports a hot spot at 50.23892 36.62459, which is about 20 miles NNE of Karhiv and one mile inside the Russian border.

There are also several other hot spots in the area above Karhiv within Ukraine.

Do those sensors only pick up target explosions or also missile launches, for instance?

The satellite has an infrared sensor, it displays heat.
This satellite is maintained to observe wildfires.
The military satellites that monitor missile launches are probably much more sensitive.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 10:43 pm

If you go down to the woods today....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcKS9BKgb9w
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 10:57 pm

The Kharkiev 227th Battalion has pushed the Russians back to the border:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 5793475587
:bigthumbsup:
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 15, 2022 11:04 pm

It seems the high russian troop deaths are not just on the success of the Ukrainians. russian commanders finish off their injured with a bullet to the head. I can’t find the original article but here is a Newsweek article. Obviously he is a prisoner of war so “could be forced to say anything” but I don’t see the Ukrainians needing to force anything out of the russian POWs. They said plenty on their own in captured phone conversations.

“ "[The Russians] don't collect their dead even. They finish off the wounded.”

“ The alleged prisoner of war said soldiers were ordered to shoot at anything that moves, including civilians, according to a Newsweek translation.

The man in the video also said he wanted to run away but there were men ready to shoot those who tried to flee.”

We knew about the dead bodies that Putin doesn’t want home and even mobile crematoriums. We saw the horrible conditions of the russian field hospitals. But to just shoot your wounded, it’s unbelievable that more russian commanders are not killed at the hands of their troops!! Wishful thinking here I guess.

https://www.newsweek.com/captured-russi ... ed-1684092
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 12:46 am

NATO wants to continue support for Ukraine according to this News Corp article:

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/na ... 97c358d701

I looked on the Nato site to find a corresponding media release but couldn't see one immediately.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 11:20 am

SRQLOT wrote:
It seems the high russian troop deaths are not just on the success of the Ukrainians. russian commanders finish off their injured with a bullet to the head. I can’t find the original article but here is a Newsweek article. Obviously he is a prisoner of war so “could be forced to say anything” but I don’t see the Ukrainians needing to force anything out of the russian POWs. They said plenty on their own in captured phone conversations.

“ "[The Russians] don't collect their dead even. They finish off the wounded.”

“ The alleged prisoner of war said soldiers were ordered to shoot at anything that moves, including civilians, according to a Newsweek translation.

The man in the video also said he wanted to run away but there were men ready to shoot those who tried to flee.”

We knew about the dead bodies that Putin doesn’t want home and even mobile crematoriums. We saw the horrible conditions of the russian field hospitals. But to just shoot your wounded, it’s unbelievable that more russian commanders are not killed at the hands of their troops!! Wishful thinking here I guess.

https://www.newsweek.com/captured-russi ... ed-1684092


For a nation with an already declining population, low fertility, relatively low life expectancy and an already depressing skewed age pyramid, Putin is certainly making sure that Russia's population shrinks even faster by liberally slaughtering a good chunk of the already too scarce Russian males of reproducing age...

Not that he cares, I suppose. Deluded megalomaniacs only really care about themselves and in his case, if the increasingly loud rumours are true, he may not be long for this World anyway.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 11:44 am

Francoflier wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
It seems the high russian troop deaths are not just on the success of the Ukrainians. russian commanders finish off their injured with a bullet to the head. I can’t find the original article but here is a Newsweek article. Obviously he is a prisoner of war so “could be forced to say anything” but I don’t see the Ukrainians needing to force anything out of the russian POWs. They said plenty on their own in captured phone conversations.

“ "[The Russians] don't collect their dead even. They finish off the wounded.”

“ The alleged prisoner of war said soldiers were ordered to shoot at anything that moves, including civilians, according to a Newsweek translation.

The man in the video also said he wanted to run away but there were men ready to shoot those who tried to flee.”

We knew about the dead bodies that Putin doesn’t want home and even mobile crematoriums. We saw the horrible conditions of the russian field hospitals. But to just shoot your wounded, it’s unbelievable that more russian commanders are not killed at the hands of their troops!! Wishful thinking here I guess.

https://www.newsweek.com/captured-russi ... ed-1684092


For a nation with an already declining population, low fertility, relatively low life expectancy and an already depressing skewed age pyramid, Putin is certainly making sure that Russia's population shrinks even faster by liberally slaughtering a good chunk of the already too scarce Russian males of reproducing age...

Not that he cares, I suppose. Deluded megalomaniacs only really care about themselves and in his case, if the increasingly loud rumours are true, he may not be long for this World anyway.


Sorry, but...
These 25.000, who have now died in Ukraine, this is only a negligible part of the whole population, even when it is already declining. Also many of these soldiers are already end of 20th, they have children, so the have fulfilled the responsibility for Darwin.
And aggressive dictatorships are excellent in increasing the size of the population....let us see, when the pill and abortion will be forbidden.

And for the second point....he needs only to stay long enough (let us say, till end of this year), to be responsible for the whole mess for the world and his country. Ukraine as Russia are the bread baskets of the world, India has a drought this year.....The west will not have problems..... but Africa!

And if the follow up will not be smooth, it can end up even more worse. Many different warlords, all with few nukes in their hands, many different fractions, to use Russia as their sandbox to get their part in the proxy follow up civil war....
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 11:53 am

Francoflier wrote:
For a nation with an already declining population, low fertility, relatively low life expectancy and an already depressing skewed age pyramid, Putin is certainly making sure that Russia's population shrinks even faster by liberally slaughtering a good chunk of the already too scarce Russian males of reproducing age...

Not that he cares, I suppose. Deluded megalomaniacs only really care about themselves and in his case, if the increasingly loud rumours are true, he may not be long for this World anyway.

He does care, but mostly about the ethnically russian population. The ones sent to the meat grinder are predominantly from peripheral minority regions which is important to keep people in the big russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg from rising up.

Unfortunately many of the hard-right Putin supporters see that as a net win.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 1:52 pm

Just something about the make-up of the Russian army:

Russia has conscription. But those people who are better connected and life in St. Petersburg or Moscow, they can elect to serve their two years of service in the FSB interior secret service. They can also join the paramilitary (Rosgvardia). There are also the ROTC programs at the universities. Participants there are exempted from the draft, but if they sign a contract, they're bound to serve for three years.

Russia has opened a school to train NCOs during the past few years, but it can only churn out about 2000 NCOs every year. The lack of NCOs is what really, really, really, really, really is hampering the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Nobody experienced to guide and command those frightened kids who've only completed basic training.

I mean... look at this shit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk69Ud4JApY&t=40s

Every video gamer knows to disperse when the fireworks hits the ground. But they are all running into the building... sheesh.

Klaus wrote:
He does care, but mostly about the ethnically russian population. The ones sent to the meat grinder are predominantly from peripheral minority regions which is important to keep people in the big russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg from rising up.


Yep. Young men from the Baikal Lake and other disadvantaged regions are doing the fightin' and the dyin'.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 2:47 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Every video gamer knows to disperse when the fireworks hits the ground. But they are all running into the building... sheesh.


Wrong or right, they may have the impression that only Russian artilery hit civilian buildings. ;)

Maybe not the case here, but a good building can protect against the shock wave as well as the shrapnel.

flyingturtle wrote:
Yep. Young men from the Baikal Lake and other disadvantaged regions are doing the fightin' and the dyin'.


Flash back to the Vietnam War where minorities occupy a proportially higher number of front line infrantry role.

This disproportional representation still exists today in the US Army. However the motivation is different. Minorities in the US Arm Forces are not conscripted but join as a way to improve their financial prospects.

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 8:05 pm

Donesk, the Russians brought tanks, APC's, flame throwers, the Ukrainians training, courage and NLAW's;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWLp6A4vieg

Kharkiv, last week, Ukrainian resistance, Russian incompetence with added war crimes;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_jGtv6hFOg
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 9:03 pm

:bigthumbsup: Well it seems that at least one army in this war knows how to cross a river.


https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/1 ... not-Russia

bt
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 9:37 pm

There's been a prisoner swap with some of the Azvostal soldiers:
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 1121419266
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 9:50 pm

bikerthai wrote:
:bigthumbsup: Well it seems that at least one army in this war knows how to cross a river.


https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/1 ... not-Russia

bt


Well done the Ukrainians! This also underlines the inability of the Russians to bomb a bridge from the air. A bridge that is so close to their border. Or maybe they don't care? They'd rather expand several Kynzhal missiles to bomb a shopping mall in Odesa (*) than to destroy a strategic bridge. I suggest Kynzhal not knowing which precision weapons they have left in their inventory.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-10-22/h_dc1d1f3d2a8e382b064b713df576b3f9
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 10:05 pm

tomcat wrote:
This also underlines the inability of the Russians to bomb a bridge from the air. A bridge that is so close to their border. Or maybe they don't care?


Oh you bet they care. But they can't do anything about it.

Consider how the Ukrainian destroy those pontoon bridges, artilery and air attack. Well the new M777 along the western river bank would have driven Russian out of range of the bridge.

And the only way to hit the new bridge(s) would be smart munition or low flying attack. They are low on smart munition and low flying attack would be subjected to MANPADs.

The other thing you probably won't see is the Ukrainian massing forces at the bridgehead waiting to be bombed or shelled.

And even if the bridge is bombed, they should be able to repair it quickly if they are not under constant artilery attack.

I wonder if the ex-afgani helicopters are in country? They would have been usefull in securing the far bank prior to the bridging.

bt



.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 10:09 pm

bikerthai wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Every video gamer knows to disperse when the fireworks hits the ground. But they are all running into the building... sheesh.


Wrong or right, they may have the impression that only Russian artilery hit civilian buildings. ;)

Maybe not the case here, but a good building can protect against the shock wave as well as the shrapnel.

flyingturtle wrote:
Yep. Young men from the Baikal Lake and other disadvantaged regions are doing the fightin' and the dyin'.


Flash back to the Vietnam War where minorities occupy a proportially higher number of front line infrantry role.

This disproportional representation still exists today in the US Army. However the motivation is different. Minorities in the US Arm Forces are not conscripted but join as a way to improve their financial prospects.

bt



Not sure that disproportional representation still exists in combat units. In 2020 here was the breakdown of US Army Infantry Unit demographics
https://www.zippia.com/infantry-jobs/demographics/

White - 59.4% (60.1% of general US population)
Hispanic or Latino - 17.8% (18.5%)
Black or African American - 12.6% (12.2%)
Asian - 5.6% (5.6%)
Unknown 3.7% (3.6%)
Native American/Alaskan 0.9% (unknown)

The Marine Corp demograhics are that Whites make up 75.0% of all US Marines. There are 9.8% Black or African American ethnicity and 6.3% of the Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. (google)

US Special Forces (all branches ) are over 75% white
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 10:18 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Not sure that disproportional representation still exists in combat units. In 2020 here was the breakdown of US Army Infantry Unit demographics


Great data. Glad things have changed.

bt
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 16, 2022 11:35 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... rn-sources

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources


Translation: The situation is so bad now that only the supreme brilliance of the great dictator can surely turn it all around (at least that is apparently his own assessment).

Next phase: See Downfall.
 
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LyleLanley
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 2:09 am

Klaus wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources


Translation: The situation is so bad now that only the supreme brilliance of the great dictator can surely turn it all around (at least that is apparently his own assessment).

Next phase: See Downfall.


It would normally be an easy 3-pointer to agree with your argument, but the way the Russians have been fighting this war I can scarcely believe they'll be any worse-off with him in the driver's seat. That's the strange part.
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 4:10 am

This sound like a really bad idea, especially when there already is the International Crime Court in The Hague. While I can understand that the US doesn't
want to be a "safe heaven" for war criminals a better idea would be that the US recognised International Crime Court in The Hague. If an alleged war criminal
is discovered in the US that person would be arrested and sent to the Hague. However if the USA recognised International Crime Court in The Hague I would
assume other countries could held US Citizens accountable for war crimes and such which I think the US wants to avoid
.
I assume that it is an outrageous idea if the US armed forces would be held to the same standard as the rest of the world even if t he have means to handle it internally.

Leading senators of both parties have struck a deal over a draft bill that would expand a 1996 war crimes law to give American courts jurisdiction
over cases involving atrocities committed abroad even if neither party is a U.S. citizen, in the latest response to Russia’s apparent targeting of civilians in Ukraine

The idea behind the draft, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, is that if someone who committed war crimes abroad later comes to the United States
and is discovered, that person could be prosecuted for those actions by the Justice Department. Killings of civilians and the discovery of mass graves in parts of Ukraine
that had been occupied by Russian troops have incited an international outcry..


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us/s ... raine.html


Washington–Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) joined Senators John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.),
Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Angus King (I-Maine), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and
Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) to introduce the Ukraine Invasion War Crimes Deterrence and Accountability Act. This legislation would ensure the United States is undertaking
coordinated efforts to collect and maintain evidence of war crimes and atrocities committed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Vladimir Putin and the Russian troops under his command must be held accountable for the heinous war crimes being committed against innocent Ukrainians.
Our bill will ensure that evidence is preserved so war criminals may one day be brought to justice and these atrocities are never forgotten,” said Senator Feinstein.


https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public ... 6DFB5AE102

ICC: https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/the-court
 
Trololzilla
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 8:15 am

Kind of an ironic thing to legislate when your own country literally has a law on the book that would demand an immediate invasion of The Hague (or any other court the US is not a party to) if any US official or service member were to be tried for war crimes.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 10:35 am

Trololzilla wrote:
Kind of an ironic thing to legislate when your own country literally has a law on the book that would demand an immediate invasion of The Hague (or any other court the US is not a party to) if any US official or service member were to be tried for war crimes.
What law is that about invading The Hague?
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 10:46 am

ReverseFlow wrote:
Trololzilla wrote:
Kind of an ironic thing to legislate when your own country literally has a law on the book that would demand an immediate invasion of The Hague (or any other court the US is not a party to) if any US official or service member were to be tried for war crimes.
What law is that about invading The Hague?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_ ... cials%20of

H.R. 4775, 116 Stat. 820, enacted August 2, 2002), known informally as The Hague Invasion Act, is a United States federal law which aims "to protect United States military personnel and other elected and appointed officials of the United States government against criminal prosecution by an international criminal court to which the United States is not party."
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 11:40 am

petertenthije wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
Trololzilla wrote:
Kind of an ironic thing to legislate when your own country literally has a law on the book that would demand an immediate invasion of The Hague (or any other court the US is not a party to) if any US official or service member were to be tried for war crimes.
What law is that about invading The Hague?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_ ... cials%20of

H.R. 4775, 116 Stat. 820, enacted August 2, 2002), known informally as The Hague Invasion Act, is a United States federal law which aims "to protect United States military personnel and other elected and appointed officials of the United States government against criminal prosecution by an international criminal court to which the United States is not party."
Ah thanks.

So it's nickname is The Hague Invasion Act but I guess as  "all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any U.S. or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court" you'd hope that they start small before working up!
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 1:56 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
What law is that about invading The Hague?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_ ... cials%20of

H.R. 4775, 116 Stat. 820, enacted August 2, 2002), known informally as The Hague Invasion Act, is a United States federal law which aims "to protect United States military personnel and other elected and appointed officials of the United States government against criminal prosecution by an international criminal court to which the United States is not party."
Ah thanks.

So it's nickname is The Hague Invasion Act but I guess as  "all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any U.S. or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court" you'd hope that they start small before working up!


It has to be pointed out that Europe's peace has been secured by strong legal institutions. Rules that have to be followed by each and any member state. One of the first such treaties was the European Coal and Steel Community, which was a forerunner of the European Union. It addressed the root causes of the 2nd World War by regulating the heavy industry and improving employment.

And Europe's diplomats work hard to bring the United States into this fold - meaning, that the United States' credibility and standing in the world will only improve if it is subject to the International Criminal Court and other institutions. Until then, the Joe Biden is only paying lip service when he says that "Might is not Right".
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Until then, the Joe Biden is only paying lip service when he says that "Might is not Right".


The US President may be the lips, but the Senate is the face as all treaties with the US must be approved by 2/3rd of the Senate, a difficult endeavor even under less divisive times

bt
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 4:22 pm

bikerthai wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Until then, the Joe Biden is only paying lip service when he says that "Might is not Right".


The US President may be the lips, but the Senate is the face as all treaties with the US must be approved by 2/3rd of the Senate, a difficult endeavor even under less divisive times

bt

Does make you wonder what treaties folks would have been willing to sign on to when the previous POTUS was in power.
There is merit in having a legislative body bind a nation to a treaty versus an individual heard of state, especially in the USA where their head of state term in office is limited.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 5:12 pm

This excellent channel is back, tackling the stories about 'bare cupboards' and related issues, 25 mins well spent;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 5:21 pm

GDB wrote:
This excellent channel is back, tackling the stories about 'bare cupboards' and related issues, 25 mins well spent;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CmXz8Qd9yw


The part about the expiration date of the Stingers reminded me of a comment by one a-net poster about the ratio of MANPADs sent vs number of aircraft destroyed.

It makes more sense now.

bt
 
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journeyperson
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 7:54 pm

For this to be broadcast there must be a shift in thinking at the top:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 8:01 pm

Ground launched adapted Brimstone missiles go into action;
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british ... ian-tanks/
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 8:09 pm

journeyperson wrote:
For this to be broadcast there must be a shift in thinking at the top:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222
I saw that. Which oligarchs and generals are going to take the fall for what all of them have been doing?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 8:22 pm

johns624 wrote:
Which oligarchs and generals are going to take the fall for what all of them have been doing?

Which politician or General took the fall for the Vietnam blunder?
none

Which politician or General took the fall for the Iraq blunder?
none
 
Jalap
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 10:46 pm

Vintage wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Which oligarchs and generals are going to take the fall for what all of them have been doing?

Which politician or General took the fall for the Vietnam blunder?
none

Which politician or General took the fall for the Iraq blunder?
none

It does indeed seem that failed military aggression has any notable repercussions for any leadership. Not in totalitarian regimes and not in democracies.
Can we even find any dictator that got overthrown because of a failed military operation? Or elected leaders that experienced poor electoral results after starting a pointless war?

This is rather odd, because something like having an affair is electoral suicide in many coutries.
While one could argument that starting a pointless war is worse.

Now for Russia, this general points out that the war isn't the only problem. The current Russian regime not only started a pointless war, it also isolated Russia. No country has been in this situation since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. So there could be more reason to overthrow Putin but then again, Saddam didn't get overthrown either after the first Gulf war.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 10:53 pm

Jalap wrote:
Can we even find any dictator that got overthrown because of a failed military operation?


Leopoldo Galtieri springs to mind.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 17, 2022 11:16 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Can we even find any dictator that got overthrown because of a failed military operation?


Leopoldo Galtieri springs to mind.
The Republicans managed to pin the blame for the Korean war not going well on Harry Truman, thus he was defeated by Ike on 1952. This is ironic because it was the staunch Republican, Dugout Doug MacArthur that brought about the Chinese entry into that war. If we would have had a competent CG in Korea, that war probably would have been over by November 1952.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 2:06 am

Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, lasted longer than the terms of the presidents that started them.

There was an article/twitter thread posted here sometime ago saying Russian leaders often lose power after losing what were supposed to be quick, easy wars.

About what the colonel said on TV, that must have shattered the worldview of millions of Russian citizens that were still in "sheep mode", I'm no propaganda expert but it doesn't seem like the right way to give a dose of reality to your people if you're doing a lot of things to control information, it looks more like some people with significant power have decided to start the process of undermining Putin.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 2:23 am

johns624 wrote:
journeyperson wrote:
For this to be broadcast there must be a shift in thinking at the top:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222
I saw that. Which oligarchs and generals are going to take the fall for what all of them have been doing?


I was about to post that as well, it’s interesting seeing a differing opinion, but will it be his last?

Admittedly for me what he said isn’t earth shattering but given how tightly the Russian government has tried to control communications around this war, it’s notable.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 2:29 am

I follow the progress of the war via the Rondeli Russian Military Digest: https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3225
They publish a map usually every day: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 20235&z=13

I download their KML file for the front lines and view it in Google earth; it lets me see changes on a day to day basis.

After I started doing this, I've gone elsewhere to double check the accuracy of the information I'm using and so far the Rondeli Russian Military Digest has checked out; I've never found any discrepancies; they were about 12 hours late in seeing the Ukrainian breakthrough at Stari Saltiv, but that is no fatal error.

Today however, they are showing what has to be a major breakthrough across the Donets by Russian forces about 12 miles west of the now famous attempted river crossing at Bilohorivka. The location is near the town of Zakitne (48°52'37.65"N 38° 5'26.82"E). It shows that they must have gotten a bridge working or forded the Donets. The Rondeli front line for today shows about a four mile penetration toward the town of Siversk along highway TO513.

If this is true, this is a big deal. But nobody is writing about it.
Has anybody here heard anything about it?
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 8:14 am

flyingturtle wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Can we even find any dictator that got overthrown because of a failed military operation?


Leopoldo Galtieri springs to mind.


Portuguese Estado Novo (Colonial War) and Greek Junta (Cyprus war) also.
 
DTVG
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 11:50 am

Vintage wrote:
I follow the progress of the war via the Rondeli Russian Military Digest: https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/view/3225
They publish a map usually every day: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 20235&z=13

I download their KML file for the front lines and view it in Google earth; it lets me see changes on a day to day basis.

After I started doing this, I've gone elsewhere to double check the accuracy of the information I'm using and so far the Rondeli Russian Military Digest has checked out; I've never found any discrepancies; they were about 12 hours late in seeing the Ukrainian breakthrough at Stari Saltiv, but that is no fatal error.

Today however, they are showing what has to be a major breakthrough across the Donets by Russian forces about 12 miles west of the now famous attempted river crossing at Bilohorivka. The location is near the town of Zakitne (48°52'37.65"N 38° 5'26.82"E). It shows that they must have gotten a bridge working or forded the Donets. The Rondeli front line for today shows about a four mile penetration toward the town of Siversk along highway TO513.

If this is true, this is a big deal. But nobody is writing about it.
Has anybody here heard anything about it?


Heard about it from pro-Russian sources. If Rondeli has it, high probability that it is true. I find you rarely get a proper picture about losses on the Ukranian side from all the regular pro-Western sources.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 11:58 am

Russia has bombed one of the M777 howitzer units, minimum 3x M777, with loitering ammunition and MLRS. Amount of damage and losses is unknown, as the loitering attack missed as seems also the MLRS bombardment was likely....near but not fully covering. It missed the street, where they have hided in the forest by likely 100 m.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526878044505481218?%20ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526878044505481218%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fusa4y2%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20894
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 12:14 pm

The first Russian soldier has pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian in Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805
A Russian soldier on trial for war crimes in Ukraine has pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian.

Vadim Shishimarin is accused of gunning down an unarmed 62-year-old civilian in the days after the invasion began and faces life in prison.

Prosecutors say more trials could be forthcoming, after identifying thousands of potential crimes committed by Russian forces. Moscow has denied its troops have targeted civilians.


He looks like a boy...
Image
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805

Please note: this is a scrolling 'latest news' page, so this item will move further and further down the page.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 801
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 1:23 pm

T4thH wrote:
Russia has bombed one of the M777 howitzer units, minimum 3x M777, with loitering ammunition and MLRS. Amount of damage and losses is unknown, as the loitering attack missed as seems also the MLRS bombardment was likely....near but not fully covering. It missed the street, where they have hided in the forest by likely 100 m.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526878044505481218?%20ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526878044505481218%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fusa4y2%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse



Like many comments say in the link, other then the first near hit, they completely missed them. Yet the russians post the vid to make it look like they got some successful ops going.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 2:47 pm

https://mwi.usma.edu/seven-initial-dron ... m-ukraine/

A good article that explores what lessons can be taken away from the use of drones in this conflict.

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