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T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 2:47 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Russia has bombed one of the M777 howitzer units, minimum 3x M777, with loitering ammunition and MLRS. Amount of damage and losses is unknown, as the loitering attack missed as seems also the MLRS bombardment was likely....near but not fully covering. It missed the street, where they have hided in the forest by likely 100 m.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526878044505481218?%20ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526878044505481218%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fusa4y2%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse



Like many comments say in the link, other then the first near hit, they completely missed them. Yet the russians post the vid to make it look like they got some successful ops going.



It is always hard to say, what and where the shrapnel's will end up and whom/what they hit where. There were no secondary explosions, no fire after the MLRS bombardment, but we can not see, if the trucks with the howitzers where still on the first road in the forest at the lower left end (in the video) or had driver further in the forest or even turned there right. There is also a small road in this forest, where the MLRS bombardment had hit. So if they have moved further into the forest and turned right....Then they could be just there, where the MLRS have hit.

This is the reason, why I am always a little bit careful, to say, they have completely missed. A shit shrapnel hitting at an unprotected part of your body (also from extended, regular non letal distance), and you will be something, which will end up in hospital or you end as hero...with 2 m soil on top of you. Or a shrapnel hits and destroys some optics, hydraulic systems or hits the computer of the gun. Or it pierces something important parts on the trucks, like the radiator of the truck or the tanks, e.g.
And than the whole group can not leave as the small roads are blocked. So in best case a delay, in worst....
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:16 pm

So do we assume that the MRLS out-ranged the towed howitzers, does it also highlight the limitation of towed artillery when counter-battery radar is available?
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:20 pm

Time to ship US MLRS to the Ukraine?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:29 pm

As posts above have mentioned, cracks perhaps?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ians-faith

Well it seems obvious who to blame;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:32 pm

par13del wrote:
So do we assume that the MRLS out-ranged the towed howitzers, does it also highlight the limitation of towed artillery when counter-battery radar is available?


All valid.
Other factors are: MRLS have longer flight times, so targeting moving targets gets harder. Quick calculations: Assuming MRLS travel avout 600mph, it takes 6 minutes to hit a target 60mi away. Twice the speed, 1/2 the time. How far can a convoy move during that time? You can lead the convoy if you know it's traveling speed.

The M777 are lighter and can be moved around by trucks the Ukrainian already have, and can be deployed on softer grounds.

I suppose, when the Ukrainian finally gets their Switchblade 600, the MLRS counter battery would be a priority.

bt
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:33 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Time to ship US MLRS to the Ukraine?


Would not be surprised if it's in the plan. Maybe have to wait for the Senate to pass the funding bill.

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:46 pm

par13del wrote:
So do we assume that the MRLS out-ranged the towed howitzers, does it also highlight the limitation of towed artillery when counter-battery radar is available?


Yes of course. To scoot with towed howitzers is ...slow and it get more worse, when the enemy is already shooting on you. In a SPG, you are protected, as crew of a howitzer not. Benefit is, the M777 have a greater range than the Russian systems, so they will need Uragar or Smerch to get you (as long you will stay outside of the range). Or jets, helicopters, long range loitering ammunition e.g.
This is the benefit for the Pzh2000, from move to deploy 40 sec, 3 rounds in 10 sec, 30 seconds to scoot. And as Germany will additional deliver few counter artillery radar systems, who are fully integrated with the Pzh2000 (and as the 7 German Pzh200 are the upgraded freshly maintained ones from the BW units and not from storage), they can do it).

The problem here was, that the howitzers were found and tracked by a Russian drone

So all this will not help, when a drone is permanently following you and you have to stop the 11 minutes for the reload or stop to hide in a forest, till the next job has been identified by your own drones. Than also the best SPG/Howitzer is just fodder for the enemy (if they are able to do the job accordingly).
The Russian drone was here the issue not any counter artillery systems.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 3:57 pm

Once you get the loyal wingman software matured, you can then have it loaded into an anti-drone armed drones. You the have a new world of drone/drone dog fights.

bt
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 4:19 pm

The kind of drone matters though. A small, off the shelf style drone can fly some minutes, maybe one hour if it's one with wings. It's not loitering for dozens of hours like a global hawk or predator.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 4:47 pm

An anti-drone drone would not need to loiter. You equipment each artilery battery with a system. If enemy drone is detected, you launch the drone. It dispatch the enemy drone and return to recharge. Like a hunting falcon.

bt
 
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 8:11 pm

Germany has had a lot of criticism, some maybe justified, however aside from the Pzh2000's and other hardware that gained attention, here are examples of equipment supplied, certainly the former, in decent quantities;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJg2mhwVpWI

First I've seen of this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJhdC1OxJSw
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 8:47 pm

GDB wrote:
Germany has had a lot of criticism, some maybe justified, however aside from the Pzh2000's and other hardware that gained attention, here are examples of equipment supplied, certainly the former, in decent quantities;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJg2mhwVpWI

First I've seen of this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJhdC1OxJSw

It is really rare to see the use of any weapos, provided by some of the countries. I have seen more videos of Pzf3 in Russian hands, than in Ukrainian in last several month.
3x Pzf3 in videos from Ukraine and never any shot on a target with them. One with the "blue round" during training. 2x RGW90 and both in use, once here and the other by Azov in Mariopol.

2 or three times a Javelin shot itself, (and all of these recently) several videos by drone of impacts from begin on.

No videos from anything provided by Germany or USA; masses of videos of everything provided by UK.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 18, 2022 11:18 pm

Looks like a plan to revive the "legendary" Moskvich

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 5am8h.html

People will love giving up their Competition spec BMW M5s, GLE63 AMGs and others in favour of the Moskvich... Never mind the masses with more ordinary small western made cars. If this isn't a sign of the wheels falling off, nothing is.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 2:05 am

GDB wrote:



That’s some impressive force right there! From reading the comments and previous Ukrainian comments they work really well!!
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 2:26 am

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... de%3Dfalse

Sheesh. But effective and straight to the point.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 4:31 am

For a while I wondered if the big Russian offensive was already taking place or if there was more to come. Well, there was more to come and here it is, the Russians have 9 separate offensives going on at once, at least BTGs, some of them (or all of them) may be multiple BTGs. If I'm seeing this right, the next few days are going to be judged as a critical time in this war.

Current Russian offensives:
wnw of Drobysheve
Zakitne, (Donets river crossing)
Borivske and Syrotyne.
At a salient 4 miles north of Toshkivka
Toshkivka
Orikhove toward Hirske
Popasna
Toward Ocheretyn - Avdiivka
South of Mariinka

West of Izyum, the Ukrainians are on the offensive.

If the Ukrainians can hold the Russians off with only minor losses of territory my guess is that the Russians will be a spent force. But that is only a guess, because I have no idea what the Russians have in reserve, and they must have something in reserve to exploit a breakthrough, if one occurs.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 3:49 pm

On the ground with the effects and losses in Donbass;
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... t-12616326
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 7:53 pm

Google Map just updated showing the Ukrainian east of Staryi Saltiv, across the causeway bridge.

The fire map also confirm by showing hot spot north of the crossing on both sides of the river past few of days

bt
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 8:03 pm

I don't have access to the entire article but here is the title:
U.S. aims to arm Ukraine with advanced anti-ship missiles to fight Russian blockade


I also read today that the UK was still working at delivering anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-aims-arm-ukraine-with-advanced-anti-ship-missiles-fight-russian-2022-05-19/
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 9:01 pm

 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 9:42 pm

And just like that, bigger guns will be on the way.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... d-package/

The package is the equivalent of an American battalion’s worth of artillery ― 18 M115 howitzers, 18 tactical vehicles to tow them and 18 artillery tubes― along with three AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said.


Or is it a typo meant to be 155mm?

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 10:22 pm

This is an 8" gun.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 19, 2022 10:38 pm

bikerthai wrote:
And just like that, bigger guns will be on the way.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/20 ... d-package/

The package is the equivalent of an American battalion’s worth of artillery ― 18 M115 howitzers, 18 tactical vehicles to tow them and 18 artillery tubes― along with three AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said.


Or is it a typo meant to be 155mm?

bt
Something's wrong here. The M115 has been obsolete for decades. I doubt if any are still around.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 20, 2022 5:55 am

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/sanc ... 88967.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukr ... s-airbags/

There have been many articles appearing regarding how Russia can no longer import several items for their domestically produced automobiles like airbags, but couldn't they source these items from China ? Or are the Chinese afraid of being hit with sanctions themselves ?
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 20, 2022 11:19 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/sanctions-send-russias-car-industry-back-to-the-80s-new-cars-now-without-airbags-and-abs-188967.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukr ... s-airbags/

There have been many articles appearing regarding how Russia can no longer import several items for their domestically produced automobiles like airbags, but couldn't they source these items from China ? Or are the Chinese afraid of being hit with sanctions themselves ?


A lot of the component companies making those pieces are Western, even if they are manufacturing in China.

Plus for existing models is not that simple to just change a vendor for a different one, a lot of automotive components are made specifically for a certain make and model and need to be done to certain specifications and probably is just not worth it for the volumes in which a certain model is going to be manufactured just for Russia.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 20, 2022 12:37 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/sanctions-send-russias-car-industry-back-to-the-80s-new-cars-now-without-airbags-and-abs-188967.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukr ... s-airbags/

There have been many articles appearing regarding how Russia can no longer import several items for their domestically produced automobiles like airbags, but couldn't they source these items from China ? Or are the Chinese afraid of being hit with sanctions themselves ?

Yes, manufacturers who'd undermine the sanctions run a very real risk of getting sanctioned themselves, including the banks doing the money transfers with Russia.

China's economy is dealing with the effects of lacking COVID vaccinations (because they refused to import the very effective western ones and their own vaccines are mostly ineffective) and it also carries a large real estate bubble which could cause massive damage if it would burst.

So China is treading lightly in order to not upset its enormously profitable economic relations with the west, at least for the moment.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 20, 2022 3:15 pm

just for information. A little swarm of helicopters on the way north/east, somewhere in Germany. Really loud and not on flighradar 24. (As really loud....perhaps not so little? That was a billion... (and not Rubels)
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 20, 2022 10:56 pm

While hibernating thru COVID I watched a ton of video's of Russian drivers.
Banning the export of airbags to Russia will overwhelm their hospitals.

Rules of the road appear to be suggestions in that country.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 12:27 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
While hibernating thru COVID I watched a ton of video's of Russian drivers.
Banning the export of airbags to Russia will overwhelm their hospitals.

Rules of the road appear to be suggestions in that country.

The notoriously rampant abuse of alcohol seems to be a factor there.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 12:33 am

Wonder how many of their troops are drunk in the field. Maybe the Ukrainian Special Forces should infiltrate Russian lines and leave poisoned vodka.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 1:05 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Wonder how many of their troops are drunk in the field. Maybe the Ukrainian Special Forces should infiltrate Russian lines and leave poisoned vodka.

Or just more vodka...!
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 1:21 am

T4thH wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Russia has bombed one of the M777 howitzer units, minimum 3x M777, with loitering ammunition and MLRS. Amount of damage and losses is unknown, as the loitering attack missed as seems also the MLRS bombardment was likely....near but not fully covering. It missed the street, where they have hided in the forest by likely 100 m.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1526878044505481218?%20ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526878044505481218%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fusa4y2%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse



Like many comments say in the link, other then the first near hit, they completely missed them. Yet the russians post the vid to make it look like they got some successful ops going.



It is always hard to say, what and where the shrapnel's will end up and whom/what they hit where. There were no secondary explosions, no fire after the MLRS bombardment, but we can not see, if the trucks with the howitzers where still on the first road in the forest at the lower left end (in the video) or had driver further in the forest or even turned there right. There is also a small road in this forest, where the MLRS bombardment had hit. So if they have moved further into the forest and turned right....Then they could be just there, where the MLRS have hit.

This is the reason, why I am always a little bit careful, to say, they have completely missed. A shit shrapnel hitting at an unprotected part of your body (also from extended, regular non letal distance), and you will be something, which will end up in hospital or you end as hero...with 2 m soil on top of you. Or a shrapnel hits and destroys some optics, hydraulic systems or hits the computer of the gun. Or it pierces something important parts on the trucks, like the radiator of the truck or the tanks, e.g.
And than the whole group can not leave as the small roads are blocked. So in best case a delay, in worst....



So I have been reading that the russian video is more likely then not a fake. Part of it being the different resolutions, but also different geolocations. Plus the fact that the units would not be within range of the russian artillery.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 2:20 am

SRQLOT wrote:
So I have been reading that the russian video is more likely then not a fake. Part of it being the different resolutions, but also different geolocations. Plus the fact that the units would not be within range of the russian artillery.


Ukrainian YouTuber (Denys), talked about this. The original attack looked genuine, but the rest was heavily edited with different videos combined to make the attack more severe than what it was.

bt
 
889091
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 8:52 am

Hungary or Slovakia bucking the trend may be understandable, as they are very dependent on Russian oil.

But Italy? EU seems to talk the talk but doesn't walk the walk...

https://www.ft.com/content/83fa3e90-e36 ... a24f22964f

ISAB declined to comment. Lukoil and Rosneft Deutschland did not respond to a comment request.


This will probably give Orban more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating with the rest of the EU.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 9:37 am

889091 wrote:
Hungary or Slovakia bucking the trend may be understandable, as they are very dependent on Russian oil.

But Italy? EU seems to talk the talk but doesn't walk the walk...

https://www.ft.com/content/83fa3e90-e36 ... a24f22964f

ISAB declined to comment. Lukoil and Rosneft Deutschland did not respond to a comment request.


This will probably give Orban more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating with the rest of the EU.

The EU may do the talk, but in the end the member states have to do the walk.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 9:46 am

Vintage wrote:
For a while I wondered if the big Russian offensive was already taking place or if there was more to come. Well, there was more to come and here it is, the Russians have 9 separate offensives going on at once, at least BTGs, some of them (or all of them) may be multiple BTGs. If I'm seeing this right, the next few days are going to be judged as a critical time in this war.

Current Russian offensives:
wnw of Drobysheve
Zakitne, (Donets river crossing)
Borivske and Syrotyne.
At a salient 4 miles north of Toshkivka
Toshkivka
Orikhove toward Hirske
Popasna
Toward Ocheretyn - Avdiivka
South of Mariinka

West of Izyum, the Ukrainians are on the offensive.

If the Ukrainians can hold the Russians off with only minor losses of territory my guess is that the Russians will be a spent force. But that is only a guess, because I have no idea what the Russians have in reserve, and they must have something in reserve to exploit a breakthrough, if one occurs.

The updates at http://www.gfsis.org.ge are showing a slow (and painful), but also continuing advance in the East for Russia. You call it “minor loss of territory” by Ukraine, but it looks Russia is successful in archiving their ultimate goal to take over as much as possible of the Donbas. Also the front along landbridge between Crimea and Russia looks more or less “frozen”.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 10:08 am

marcelh wrote:
Vintage wrote:
For a while I wondered if the big Russian offensive was already taking place or if there was more to come. Well, there was more to come and here it is, the Russians have 9 separate offensives going on at once, at least BTGs, some of them (or all of them) may be multiple BTGs. If I'm seeing this right, the next few days are going to be judged as a critical time in this war.

Current Russian offensives:
wnw of Drobysheve
Zakitne, (Donets river crossing)
Borivske and Syrotyne.
At a salient 4 miles north of Toshkivka
Toshkivka
Orikhove toward Hirske
Popasna
Toward Ocheretyn - Avdiivka
South of Mariinka

West of Izyum, the Ukrainians are on the offensive.

If the Ukrainians can hold the Russians off with only minor losses of territory my guess is that the Russians will be a spent force. But that is only a guess, because I have no idea what the Russians have in reserve, and they must have something in reserve to exploit a breakthrough, if one occurs.

The updates at http://www.gfsis.org.ge are showing a slow (and painful), but also continuing advance in the East for Russia. You call it “minor loss of territory” by Ukraine, but it looks Russia is successful in archiving their ultimate goal to take over as much as possible of the Donbas. Also the front along landbridge between Crimea and Russia looks more or less “frozen”.

Though, at what cost to the Russians? Russian losses keep mounting, with many of it's losses irreplaceable, while Ukraine can still call up and arm more soldiers, and is receiving massive amounts of heavy weapons from the West.

The Ukrainians can give ground while exacting heavy losses on the attacking Russian forces; eventually, Russian losses will become so severe, along with exhaustion, it will permit a situation where Ukraine can counter attack and roll back the Russian advance.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 10:32 am

marcelh wrote:
The updates at http://www.gfsis.org.ge are showing a slow (and painful), but also continuing advance in the East for Russia. You call it “minor loss of territory” by Ukraine, but it looks Russia is successful in archiving their ultimate goal to take over as much as possible of the Donbas. Also the front along landbridge between Crimea and Russia looks more or less “frozen”.

The Russian "ultimate goal" has changed quite a bit lately, there's no telling what the "ultimate goal" will be tomorrow or the next day.

I have the last 30 days of Rondeli front line KML files saved to Google Earth, I have been following the progress every day. When I display the front lines for April 20th and today simultaneously, I can see that the Russians have lost as much territory in the Kharkiv sector as they have gained further east, and as you say, the invasion has stalled in the south.

Right now the Russian army is at the height of it war power and has nearly exhausted their supplies while the Ukrainians are still building their army and have an unlimited supply chain. I doubt if the Russians can sustain this level of combat for much longer.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 11:07 am

Vintage wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Right now the Russian army is at the height of it war power and has nearly exhausted their supplies while the Ukrainians are still building their army and have an unlimited supply chain. I doubt if the Russians can sustain this level of combat for much longer.

Particularly when you see this:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... ght-a77751
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 11:23 am

Braybuddy wrote:
Vintage wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Right now the Russian army is at the height of it war power and has nearly exhausted their supplies while the Ukrainians are still building their army and have an unlimited supply chain. I doubt if the Russians can sustain this level of combat for much longer.

Particularly when you see this:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... ght-a77751


That’s bad enough in itself, the lack of what are now basics in Western forces are lacking across the board, the modern body armour, as some observers have mentioned the much vaunted Russian standard rifle, AK-12, supposedly to have optics as standard as Western forces for the past 25-30 years have, from footage rarely seems to have them. That’s Russian released footage mostly, meant to, you would think, show them in their best possible light
(Then you see Ukrainian reservists, civilians essentially, being trained on old AKM’s but with modern optics even for them).

As for Russian goals, which one?
The initial one of knocking over the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet, mop up in around a week, that one?
The permanent incorporation of regions in the East already under Russian subversion and pressure since 2014?
The control of the Black Sea? How’s the flagship for Russian ambitions there doing?

Whatever, there are constant reports now of Putin taking personal command of the operation, down to battalion level. He hasn’t a day of military experience in his life, was he the mastermind behind that notorious attempts at river crossing, same place, in daylight, battalion got chewed up?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 1:03 pm

889091 wrote:
Hungary or Slovakia bucking the trend may be understandable, as they are very dependent on Russian oil.

But Italy? EU seems to talk the talk but doesn't walk the walk...

https://www.ft.com/content/83fa3e90-e36 ... a24f22964f

ISAB declined to comment. Lukoil and Rosneft Deutschland did not respond to a comment request.


This will probably give Orban more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating with the rest of the EU.


Have you stopped using oil and gas since the start of the war ?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 1:14 pm

Having distention within NATO or the EU may be bad optics, but there is a silver lining. It shows that you can not strong arm a member into actions that may not be their best interest. That contrasts nicely against Russia's way of doing things.

Italy's action may hurt them politically in the long run, but I see P-8As and Global Hawks flying out of Sicily to the Black Sea, so I have no beef with their politics.

bt
 
889091
Posts: 808
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 3:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
889091 wrote:
Hungary or Slovakia bucking the trend may be understandable, as they are very dependent on Russian oil.

But Italy? EU seems to talk the talk but doesn't walk the walk...

https://www.ft.com/content/83fa3e90-e36 ... a24f22964f

ISAB declined to comment. Lukoil and Rosneft Deutschland did not respond to a comment request.


This will probably give Orban more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating with the rest of the EU.


Have you stopped using oil and gas since the start of the war ?


Nope, but this is what von der Leyen said approximately 2 weeks ago:

"This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined," von der Leyen told the European Parliament.


https://www.politico.eu/article/brussel ... l-imports/

In reality, not going to be feasible imho
 
Klaus
Posts: 21780
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 5:01 pm

889091 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
889091 wrote:
Hungary or Slovakia bucking the trend may be understandable, as they are very dependent on Russian oil.

But Italy? EU seems to talk the talk but doesn't walk the walk...

https://www.ft.com/content/83fa3e90-e36 ... a24f22964f



This will probably give Orban more bargaining power when it comes to negotiating with the rest of the EU.


Have you stopped using oil and gas since the start of the war ?


Nope, but this is what von der Leyen said approximately 2 weeks ago:

"This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined," von der Leyen told the European Parliament.


https://www.politico.eu/article/brussel ... l-imports/

In reality, not going to be feasible imho

It's a matter of when, not if!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 7:45 pm

Klaus wrote:
889091 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

Have you stopped using oil and gas since the start of the war ?


Nope, but this is what von der Leyen said approximately 2 weeks ago:

"This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined," von der Leyen told the European Parliament.


https://www.politico.eu/article/brussel ... l-imports/

In reality, not going to be feasible imho

It's a matter of when, not if!

The Russian oil ban with secondary bans has an incredible amount of political will behind it. It will take time, but eventually it will happen.
 
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat May 21, 2022 10:07 pm

Something curious happening today. Looking at the FIRMS map in the Dombas, all the fires seems to be on the Russian side of the river.

bt
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24356
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 12:52 am

Ukraine is bringing up compensation. I suspect none of the frozen funds will make it back to Russia. Way too much is owed on the unjustified war, in my opinion.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-leader-z ... 33556.html
 
marcelh
Posts: 2124
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 6:03 am

GDB wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Vintage wrote:

Particularly when you see this:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... ght-a77751


That’s bad enough in itself, the lack of what are now basics in Western forces are lacking across the board, the modern body armour, as some observers have mentioned the much vaunted Russian standard rifle, AK-12, supposedly to have optics as standard as Western forces for the past 25-30 years have, from footage rarely seems to have them. That’s Russian released footage mostly, meant to, you would think, show them in their best possible light
(Then you see Ukrainian reservists, civilians essentially, being trained on old AKM’s but with modern optics even for them).

As for Russian goals, which one?
The initial one of knocking over the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet, mop up in around a week, that one?
The permanent incorporation of regions in the East already under Russian subversion and pressure since 2014?
The control of the Black Sea? How’s the flagship for Russian ambitions there doing?

Whatever, there are constant reports now of Putin taking personal command of the operation, down to battalion level. He hasn’t a day of military experience in his life, was he the mastermind behind that notorious attempts at river crossing, same place, in daylight, battalion got chewed up?

The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.

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