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Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 7:17 am

marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.
They took the Black sea area in the first few days of the invasion, almost three months ago, and haven't progressed there since. They are making slow progress in Donbas and have been ejected from the Kiev area and the Kharkiv area.

Their actions against the people of Ukraine (see Bucha) have insured that the people of Ukraine will pursue the ejection of the Russians with the fervor of a holy war.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 7:37 am

marcelh wrote:
GDB wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:


That’s bad enough in itself, the lack of what are now basics in Western forces are lacking across the board, the modern body armour, as some observers have mentioned the much vaunted Russian standard rifle, AK-12, supposedly to have optics as standard as Western forces for the past 25-30 years have, from footage rarely seems to have them. That’s Russian released footage mostly, meant to, you would think, show them in their best possible light
(Then you see Ukrainian reservists, civilians essentially, being trained on old AKM’s but with modern optics even for them).

As for Russian goals, which one?
The initial one of knocking over the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet, mop up in around a week, that one?
The permanent incorporation of regions in the East already under Russian subversion and pressure since 2014?
The control of the Black Sea? How’s the flagship for Russian ambitions there doing?

Whatever, there are constant reports now of Putin taking personal command of the operation, down to battalion level. He hasn’t a day of military experience in his life, was he the mastermind behind that notorious attempts at river crossing, same place, in daylight, battalion got chewed up?

The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.


Not ‘downplaying’ anything, however I am more likely to believe what the intel agencies who were proven correct in their assessments of Russian intentions, likely plan, assets they had for any operation, which some thought was Western anti Russian rhetoric- those voices also usually the same saying the Ukrainians should accept some Russian demands in the 1930’s style hope that appeasing a dictator makes them go away.

What they were not so correct was the sheer incompetence of the Russian forces and their leadership, this can even be seen in what weapons were supplied, just prior to the invasion (by those nations who happened to be the most correct, well they have the intel assets to be able to make an informed assessment and perhaps those that did not or they were under domestic political pressure to tone down their assessments because we cannot offend Russia. How has that worked out?)
But when others stepped in too, what was supplied? Weapons suited for light infantry with also an eye on transition to partisan warfare if Russia takes mostly as they intended, major cities and eventually much of the country.
Now what is being suppiled ? A bit beyond equipment for the above situation because it’s nowhere near happened.

Ukraine has a pipeline of increasing amounts of material, Russia due to sanctions and years of corruption and plain BS about their ‘modernized’ military cannot do the same, reliant as they are on Western technology. Plus what proported to be ‘elite’ Russian troops got badly chewed up early on so what can Russia do? Greatly expanding via a mobilisation adding even worse trained, more young men who really don’t want to be there, thus bringing the realities of this war right into Russian homes in the major cities of European part of the country. Something Putin for all his grip on power, wants to avoid.

You seem to be downplaying the fact that despite a city the Russians expected to take in a day or two finally was taken this week but only after they flattened the place, the Ukrainians have also taken back some territory, even to the Russian border. In a region the Russians subverted from 2014 and had expectations of a lot of support from the local populace. Since they have carried out their usual war crimes and when chased out just fling artillery back in fustration. Not hearts and minds is it? They will never be accepted even there.
Now consider, given the apparent mismatch in forces between Russia and Ukraine, how is that even possible? Well 8 years of the UK, US, Canada and the have skin in the game Baltic states training to NATO standards, plus the weapon systems plus most of all Ukranians themselves. They are fighting for survival, in every sense of the word.

While the Ceasar gun systems are a good addition for Ukraine, the fact is that in terms of value of weapons suppilied, tiny Estonia has sent double what France has so far.
Macron got totally played by Putin, not having a go at him, fact is every President of the Fifth Republic has to be seen to trying to get one over diplomatically on the Anglo Saxons because of......reasons.

Then there is the broader strategic Russian failure, on the Sweden and Finland NATO thread, I posted a link to a long form, fair, balanced, well argued piece on that, worth a look.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 7:51 am

marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea.

Controlling the Black Sea you say? The Russian flagship is controlling the bottom of the sea. As are various other ships.

Considering Ukraine started with next to no navy (their sole frigate “Hetman Sahaidachny” scuttled on day one), I’d say Ukraine is doing a fair job.
 
DTVG
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 9:48 am

petertenthije wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea.

Controlling the Black Sea you say? The Russian flagship is controlling the bottom of the sea. As are various other ships.

Considering Ukraine started with next to no navy (their sole frigate “Hetman Sahaidachny” scuttled on day one), I’d say Ukraine is doing a fair job.


Yes, the Russian Navy's performance has been crap, but they are still able to hold up the blockade on Ukraine inflicting serious economic damage on Ukraine's exports.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 10:07 am

GDB wrote:
marcelh wrote:
GDB wrote:

That’s bad enough in itself, the lack of what are now basics in Western forces are lacking across the board, the modern body armour, as some observers have mentioned the much vaunted Russian standard rifle, AK-12, supposedly to have optics as standard as Western forces for the past 25-30 years have, from footage rarely seems to have them. That’s Russian released footage mostly, meant to, you would think, show them in their best possible light
(Then you see Ukrainian reservists, civilians essentially, being trained on old AKM’s but with modern optics even for them).

As for Russian goals, which one?
The initial one of knocking over the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet, mop up in around a week, that one?
The permanent incorporation of regions in the East already under Russian subversion and pressure since 2014?
The control of the Black Sea? How’s the flagship for Russian ambitions there doing?

Whatever, there are constant reports now of Putin taking personal command of the operation, down to battalion level. He hasn’t a day of military experience in his life, was he the mastermind behind that notorious attempts at river crossing, same place, in daylight, battalion got chewed up?

The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.


Not ‘downplaying’ anything, however I am more likely to believe what the intel agencies who were proven correct in their assessments of Russian intentions, likely plan, assets they had for any operation, which some thought was Western anti Russian rhetoric- those voices also usually the same saying the Ukrainians should accept some Russian demands in the 1930’s style hope that appeasing a dictator makes them go away.

What they were not so correct was the sheer incompetence of the Russian forces and their leadership, this can even be seen in what weapons were supplied, just prior to the invasion (by those nations who happened to be the most correct, well they have the intel assets to be able to make an informed assessment and perhaps those that did not or they were under domestic political pressure to tone down their assessments because we cannot offend Russia. How has that worked out?)
But when others stepped in too, what was supplied? Weapons suited for light infantry with also an eye on transition to partisan warfare if Russia takes mostly as they intended, major cities and eventually much of the country.
Now what is being suppiled ? A bit beyond equipment for the above situation because it’s nowhere near happened.

Ukraine has a pipeline of increasing amounts of material, Russia due to sanctions and years of corruption and plain BS about their ‘modernized’ military cannot do the same, reliant as they are on Western technology. Plus what proported to be ‘elite’ Russian troops got badly chewed up early on so what can Russia do? Greatly expanding via a mobilisation adding even worse trained, more young men who really don’t want to be there, thus bringing the realities of this war right into Russian homes in the major cities of European part of the country. Something Putin for all his grip on power, wants to avoid.

You seem to be downplaying the fact that despite a city the Russians expected to take in a day or two finally was taken this week but only after they flattened the place, the Ukrainians have also taken back some territory, even to the Russian border. In a region the Russians subverted from 2014 and had expectations of a lot of support from the local populace. Since they have carried out their usual war crimes and when chased out just fling artillery back in fustration. Not hearts and minds is it? They will never be accepted even there.
Now consider, given the apparent mismatch in forces between Russia and Ukraine, how is that even possible? Well 8 years of the UK, US, Canada and the have skin in the game Baltic states training to NATO standards, plus the weapon systems plus most of all Ukranians themselves. They are fighting for survival, in every sense of the word.

While the Ceasar gun systems are a good addition for Ukraine, the fact is that in terms of value of weapons suppilied, tiny Estonia has sent double what France has so far.
Macron got totally played by Putin, not having a go at him, fact is every President of the Fifth Republic has to be seen to trying to get one over diplomatically on the Anglo Saxons because of......reasons.

Then there is the broader strategic Russian failure, on the Sweden and Finland NATO thread, I posted a link to a long form, fair, balanced, well argued piece on that, worth a look.


Thank you for a fair assessment.
In fact yes, there is a problem in the South, russians are digging in. Still, militarily the situation is far batter than anyone expected, truth to be told. Lads are doing an amazing job.

What still puzzles me -- how come "russia being paid in money" for their exports is even still a thing? I mean, Saddam was forced to sell his wares through "Oil for food", with no access to live cash, like ever. I sense complete gutlessness on the side of (primarily European) establishment in the West.
Or at least some sort of escrow system "regime in Kremlin is illegitimate" (established long ago. The fact that russia runs elections in Crimea, for example, deligitimizes any "federally elected" body and official there) thus it may sell stuff, but all the ill-gotten gains go into an escrow account. A small portion (20%?) is allowed for current purchases of food and other critical items -- like designer bags and Swiss watches.

Basically, by not enacting anything like that, buyers of russian (primarily energy) exports are financing this war against us...
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 12:31 pm

marcelh wrote:
GDB wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:


That’s bad enough in itself, the lack of what are now basics in Western forces are lacking across the board, the modern body armour, as some observers have mentioned the much vaunted Russian standard rifle, AK-12, supposedly to have optics as standard as Western forces for the past 25-30 years have, from footage rarely seems to have them. That’s Russian released footage mostly, meant to, you would think, show them in their best possible light
(Then you see Ukrainian reservists, civilians essentially, being trained on old AKM’s but with modern optics even for them).

As for Russian goals, which one?
The initial one of knocking over the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet, mop up in around a week, that one?
The permanent incorporation of regions in the East already under Russian subversion and pressure since 2014?
The control of the Black Sea? How’s the flagship for Russian ambitions there doing?

Whatever, there are constant reports now of Putin taking personal command of the operation, down to battalion level. He hasn’t a day of military experience in his life, was he the mastermind behind that notorious attempts at river crossing, same place, in daylight, battalion got chewed up?

The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.

If they are more and more diluting their already waning strengths they may advance to the point of becoming ripe for a rollback if they don't actually have the strength to stabilize. Resupply has been one of their weakest points from the start.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 1:16 pm

The law of unintended consequences -- rumblings in the regions:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... ity-a77714
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun May 22, 2022 4:51 pm

Following on from an article in the New York Times this week about why America isn't ready to fully support Ukraine, Illia Ponomarenko, a defence and security reporter at the Kyiv Independent (and Ukranian soldier) wrote a response, which included an interview with Ukraine’s former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, outlining why Ukraine cannot negotiate or compromise with Putin, comparing it to appeasing Hitler:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/an ... situation/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 11:58 am

Some interesting tidbits on day 89 or this three day war:
https://www.novinite.com/articles/21521 ... in+Lugansk

The Ukraine army is losing 50 to 100 soldiers per day.

Russia will setup 12 new military bases in the Western part of the country in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. It looks like older men will enter the military to staff them per the link.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 12:09 pm

Per this link, Russian casualties are about 150 per day, breaking 29,200. Russia has now lost more soldiers than in Afghanistan (In 89 days vs. 9 years).
https://ukranews.com/en/news/858549-rus ... telligence

This is brutal for both sides. The difference is Russia fighting is by choice. Ukraine is fighting to survive.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 12:52 pm

This war is just a big game to one medal-holder:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 5790571525
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 1:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Per this link, Russian casualties are about 150 per day, breaking 29,200. Russia has now lost more soldiers than in Afghanistan (In 89 days vs. 9 years).
https://ukranews.com/en/news/858549-rus ... telligence

This is brutal for both sides. The difference is Russia fighting is by choice. Ukraine is fighting to survive.


Biggest difference is outlook. Ukraine (and its army) will probably be rebuild and prosper filled with pride over the glorious defeat of tyranny in the future, Russia on the other will only further decline, while the best of their army has been decimated and will be impossible to be rebuild due to economic decline. There is no hope for Russia, their ego is bruised and their economic and military heart is severely hit...
 
Alfons
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 2:02 pm

marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.


I have difficulties to believe that the Russians are progressing. It's Europe and the world who is against this war, who is progressing, and no end of invasion, peace treaty or government change will stop it. In the next 2-3 years, Russia will lose 80% of its economical footprint in the world, having consequences to everything what is happening inside their country for a long time.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 2:21 pm

Alfons wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea. Downplay like you want, but I really fail to understand how Ukraine will be able to take control of all the territory they lost after February 24th.


I have difficulties to believe that the Russians are progressing. It's Europe and the world who is against this war, who is progressing, and no end of invasion, peace treaty or government change will stop it. In the next 2-3 years, Russia will lose 80% of its economical footprint in the world, having consequences to everything what is happening inside their country for a long time.

If you follow the mapping (both pro Ukraine and pro Russia) you'll see that Russia is making very slow but bloody progress. Who knows the casualties they're sustaining and how long they can keep this up, but they are indeed making progress.

I'm concerned. The Ukrainians have done extremely well so far, but they aren't invincible. Russia threatens to encircle a few pockets of troops, and they're digging in in other areas. That'll make Ukraine's job that much harder.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 2:33 pm

As have been forecasted, this is a war of attrition. As long as Russia lose more men and material, the Ukrainian will be in good shape.

So far it seems the strategy is to use long range artilery and drone to destroy Russian armor, artilery.

We have not seen mass number of M-113 in theater yet. I don't think the Ukrainian will be ready for a major counteroffensive until they get significant long range artilery in forms of US missiles and sufficient APCs. Of course the Ukrainian have surprised us enough times so far.

bt
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 4:30 pm

"Putin survived assassination attempt"! Don't know if this can be verified, but it is interesting:
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/ukrai ... d/1071056/
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 23, 2022 4:40 pm

Now a Russian diplomat at the UN resigns because of the war:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61546571
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 10:48 am

JonesNL wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Per this link, Russian casualties are about 150 per day, breaking 29,200. Russia has now lost more soldiers than in Afghanistan (In 89 days vs. 9 years).
https://ukranews.com/en/news/858549-rus ... telligence

This is brutal for both sides. The difference is Russia fighting is by choice. Ukraine is fighting to survive.


Biggest difference is outlook. Ukraine (and its army) will probably be rebuild and prosper filled with pride over the glorious defeat of tyranny in the future, Russia on the other will only further decline, while the best of their army has been decimated and will be impossible to be rebuild due to economic decline. There is no hope for Russia, their ego is bruised and their economic and military heart is severely hit...

Due to mostly corruption and sanctions limiting some parts, Russia is going to have a very difficult time replacing equipment. It seems likely that Russia has a lack of spare parts. Since a war consumes parts quickly, that makes it unlikely Russia could maintain the current level of equipment.

Russia has increased the age for contract soldiers:
https://us.bolnews.com/international/20 ... 20military.

Russia simply doesn't have the economy for a larger "peacetime" military. I do not see Russians tolerating a mobilization either.

Kyiv and Kharkiv somehow didn't just hold off the invader, they expelled the Russian troops. It will be interesting to see where the next Ukraine counterattack happens.

Lightsaber
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 11:52 am

A reality check in Time:
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/

Some quotes:
” Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24. Putin’s army holds Kherson, whatever is left of Mariupol, all the intervening territory, and now not only Luhansk and Donetsk but the entire Donbas Oblast. For example, whereas Ukrainian authorities controlled approximately 60% of Luhansk before the recent Russian invasion, now Russian forces control over 80% of the region. They also have about 70% of Zaporizhye region. Cumulatively, this accounts for an increase of Russian occupied territory from approximately 7%, including Crimea, before February more than double that now. Viewed this way, not losing looks a lot more like losing than winning.”

” Economically, Ukraine is surviving, but only that. The sanctions on Russia that are expected to cause a less than 7% contraction in GDP compare rather unfavorably to the 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is facing. At least 25% of businesses are closed, although the number that have completely stopped has fallen from 32% in March to 17% in May. But a Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s ports—Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, and others—by Russia’s navy is preventing both the import of fuels to power the agricultural sector, and also the export of grain and other Ukrainian products. The inability to export is costing Ukraine’s economy $170 million per day. Meanwhile, Russia is targeting Ukrainian fuel storages, grain silos, and agricultural equipment warehouses, damaging already tattered supply chains. The power sector is facing default because so few Ukrainian citizens and companies are able to pay their electricity bills.”
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 12:02 pm

Russia is weaponizing food supplies, EU’s von der Leyen warns.https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/russia- ... dates.html

Putin truly is Dr. Evil. His actions as detailed in the CNBC article has the potential to unleash another wave of migrants heading to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. And starving millions who don't make the trip. Talk about asymmetrical warfare.

The only options (IMO) are to supply Ukraine with MLRS to hit Russian missile sites and artillery that is targeting grain facilities and Harpoons to clear the Black Sea of Russian warships. Both would be major escalations.

Still surprised he hasn't turned off the flow of natural gas if even just briefly to the rest of Europe. Just to rattle the markets and cause energy prices to jump another 25 to 50 percent.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 12:08 pm

Without spare parts and repair manual updates from the West, Russia faces increasing difficulties in servicing its fleet and ensuring that the maintenance paperwork meets international standards.

Out of Aeroflot's 187 planes, all but 10 are made by Airbus or Boeing, which are barred from servicing the jets.


https://www.politico.eu/article/russia- ... n-to-bite/

When Russian airliners can no longer satisfy Russian aviation authority regulations ie safety regulations, will they be grounded or will the Russian authority wait until they start being flown into the ground?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 12:35 pm

marcelh wrote:


The title said:
Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think


Well, glass half empty . . .

Compared to what many predicted 3 months ago - Russia, I'd say Ukraine i'd in better shape than we would have hoped for.

Ukraine economy is in shambles, true. But it has the Economy of the US and Europe to back it up. Russia is on her own. And the Donbas' economy is even worse.

Besides, Ukrainian economy can't be as bad as either Germany or Japan at the conclusion of WWII.

bt
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 2:01 pm

art wrote:
Without spare parts and repair manual updates from the West, Russia faces increasing difficulties in servicing its fleet and ensuring that the maintenance paperwork meets international standards.

Out of Aeroflot's 187 planes, all but 10 are made by Airbus or Boeing, which are barred from servicing the jets.


https://www.politico.eu/article/russia- ... n-to-bite/

When Russian airliners can no longer satisfy Russian aviation authority regulations ie safety regulations, will they be grounded or will the Russian authority wait until they start being flown into the ground?
What I wonder about with the manuals updates.
As the aircraft aren't getting any updates (hardware/software) anyways, surely the manuals would be the same as at the time of the sanctions start?
So no real need for manuals updates.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 2:45 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
art wrote:
Without spare parts and repair manual updates from the West, Russia faces increasing difficulties in servicing its fleet and ensuring that the maintenance paperwork meets international standards.

Out of Aeroflot's 187 planes, all but 10 are made by Airbus or Boeing, which are barred from servicing the jets.


https://www.politico.eu/article/russia- ... n-to-bite/

When Russian airliners can no longer satisfy Russian aviation authority regulations ie safety regulations, will they be grounded or will the Russian authority wait until they start being flown into the ground?

What I wonder about with the manuals updates.
As the aircraft aren't getting any updates (hardware/software) anyways, surely the manuals would be the same as at the time of the sanctions start?
So no real need for manuals updates.


Apart from sanctions stopping supply of all spares, maintenance including (I guess) manuals, what is the position regarding leased aircraft 'nationalised' by the Putin regime? Would Airbus or Boeing supply hardware/services to airlines for use on aircraft 'stolen' from their customers through 'nationalisation' by the Putin regime? I wonder how long western aircraft in use by Russian airlines will be able to continue to fly safely.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 3:04 pm

Three months. Who would have predicted a three month war?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... uxbndlbing

The next 3 months are critical. Only two possibilities:
1. Russia holds out until fresh troops and equipment give them the upper hand.
2. Ukraine gains the initiative and capturers enough territory, soldiers, and equipment to force peace.

If Ukraine doesn't thrive, this will be a long war. Hopefully sanctions can be notched up.

Lightsaber
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 4:00 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
What I wonder about with the manuals updates.


All Boeing manuals are electronic accessed through their network. Russia should not be able to access any manuals let alone any updates.

art wrote:
what is the position regarding leased aircraft 'nationalised' by the Putin regime? Would Airbus or Boeing supply hardware/services to airlines for use on aircraft 'stolen' from their customers through 'nationalisation' by the Putin regime?


Doesn't matter who owns or operate the aircrafts, as long as Russia in the loop anywhere along the way, the sanction should applies.

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 4:38 pm

New exhibits at the Military Museum in Kyiv, y'know capital of that 'soon to forced to capitulate country'.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -a-warning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQJyXlfvq4g

Cannot put it past Russia to try and weaponise food even to nations in desperate need of it, is this a potential solution?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... a-blockade
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 4:46 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
what is the position regarding leased aircraft 'nationalised' by the Putin regime? Would Airbus or Boeing supply hardware/services to airlines for use on aircraft 'stolen' from their customers through 'nationalisation' by the Putin regime?


Doesn't matter who owns or operate the aircrafts, as long as Russia in the loop anywhere along the way, the sanction should applies.

bt


I think you missed my angle. If sanctions stopped, would Airbus, Boeing supply spares for aircraft that had been 'stolen' from their customers?

Russian airlines lease around 500 aircraft from foreign companies. A law signed this week by Russian president Vladimir Putin allows these carriers to continue to operate these aircraft on domestic flights, even after the lessors cancel the leases, according to the state-owned TASS news agency.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/russia-na ... ine-fleet/
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 5:43 pm

art wrote:
If sanctions stopped, would Airbus, Boeing supply spares for aircraft that had been 'stolen' from their customers?


If sanctions stopped, Boeing and Airbus would then have to follow the final legal agreement of all involved on the disposition of these aircraft.

I don't believe they will be able to support any aircrafts that that may be under legal proceeding unless all parties agree to it while the proceedings move forward.

bt

PS. Legal proceedings as in International Laws and not Russian laws. :box:
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 5:55 pm

Roundup from German DW network, good summary of where we are to date;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pgmvIB3Fjw
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:05 pm

A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788
 
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argentinevol98
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:11 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


Surprised they have Major Generals flying aircraft in combat zones, unless there is something I fail to understand about Russian Air Force rankings and organization (of which I know little about, just know about the aircraft really).
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:13 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Russia is weaponizing food supplies, EU’s von der Leyen warns.https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/russia- ... dates.html

Putin truly is Dr. Evil. His actions as detailed in the CNBC article has the potential to unleash another wave of migrants heading to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. And starving millions who don't make the trip. Talk about asymmetrical warfare.

The only options (IMO) are to supply Ukraine with MLRS to hit Russian missile sites and artillery that is targeting grain facilities and Harpoons to clear the Black Sea of Russian warships. Both would be major escalations.

Still surprised he hasn't turned off the flow of natural gas if even just briefly to the rest of Europe. Just to rattle the markets and cause energy prices to jump another 25 to 50 percent.


As part of the latest multi national package, Denmark is pulling it's vehicle mounted Harpoons out of storage for Ukraine;
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... f62490fd4c
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:20 pm

GDB wrote:
As part of the latest multi national package, Denmark is pulling it's vehicle mounted Harpoons out of storage for Ukraine;


Already a dividend of having Sweden applying for NATO? Just joking of course.

bt
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:47 pm

bikerthai wrote:

Besides, Ukrainian economy can't be as bad as either Germany or Japan at the conclusion of WWII.

bt


The US economy isn't the economy it was in comparison to the rest of the world at the conclusion of WWII, either.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:49 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


He's the very model of a Russian Major General.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:51 pm

argentinevol98 wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


Surprised they have Major Generals flying aircraft in combat zones, unless there is something I fail to understand about Russian Air Force rankings and organization (of which I know little about, just know about the aircraft really).


Could be lots of things. Could be a silverback General wanted to get his war on...could be there are significant losses to SU-25 pilots that necessitate every warm body flying...could be moral issues that are driving Generals to fly to demonstrate they are in this with their troops. Who knows?
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:51 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


He's the very model of a Russian Major General.


Well played.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 6:52 pm

argentinevol98 wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


Surprised they have Major Generals flying aircraft in combat zones, unless there is something I fail to understand about Russian Air Force rankings and organization (of which I know little about, just know about the aircraft really).


Maybe there's a shortage of pilots? Russian Major Generals seem to be expendable.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 7:38 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
A Russian SU-25 major general was shot down on Sunday, the highest-ranking so far:
ttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/2 ... ian-a77788


He's the very model of a Russian Major General.


Well played.



But he couldn't tell at sight a Stinger from a Javelin.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 7:38 pm

marcelh wrote:
A reality check in Time:
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/


Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24.
No kidding. But nowhere near as much as they thought that they would control by now.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 7:59 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
The US economy isn't the economy it was in comparison to the rest of the world at the conclusion of WWII, either.


:biggrin:

How true. With the exception of the Americas, the rest of the world's economy was in the tank after WWII.

At least this time Western Europe is relatively healthy, even after the pandemic.

bt
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:06 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
But he couldn't tell at sight a Stinger from a Javelin.


He left his bi-focals at home.

Geez talk about old men and young boys being sent in to battle!

One would expect this from the the side who's losing the war

bt
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:07 pm

DTVG wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The Russians are taking huge losses, but are also progressing in the Donbas and controlling the Black Sea.

Controlling the Black Sea you say? The Russian flagship is controlling the bottom of the sea. As are various other ships.

Considering Ukraine started with next to no navy (their sole frigate “Hetman Sahaidachny” scuttled on day one), I’d say Ukraine is doing a fair job.


Yes, the Russian Navy's performance has been crap, but they are still able to hold up the blockade on Ukraine inflicting serious economic damage on Ukraine's exports.


I heard on the UK radio that Ukraine had laid mines to prevent Russian ships getting near Odessa (to prevent an assault from the sea). If true, no seaborne traffic can safely get to Odessa whether there is a Russian navy presence or not.

I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.

https://www.insider.com/world-has-10-we ... rns-2022-5
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... black-sea/
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:20 pm

art wrote:
I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.


Fair point. Will the rest of the world pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire to prevent starvation around the world?

The threat of food shortage is real, but starvation?

Wonder if it would be easier to ask American to reduce our consumption? The excess food alone could make up the difference. And we might even get healthier. :biting:

bt
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:30 pm

Meduza claims to have sources close to the Kremlin which lift the lid on the thinking going-on behind the scenes at the highest level in Moscow. There seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with Putin and the way he invaded Ukraine, and replacing him is being discussed, although nothing is being planned:
“It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future,” explained one individual

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24 ... with-putin
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:32 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.


Fair point. Will the rest of the world pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire to prevent starvation around the world?

The threat of food shortage is real, but starvation?

Wonder if it would be easier to ask American to reduce our consumption? The excess food alone could make up the difference. And we might even get healthier. :biting:

bt

I see that Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine said the following to BBC

"I think if you calculate it would take us five, six, seven years to export all these agricultural yields by these routes. So right now it's extremely important for us to unblock the seaports and we apply to our partners to do this," she said.

"The world needs it because Russia threatens the world with world hunger and the only way to solve this problem is to unblock the sea ports.

"If we don't give farmers the opportunity to export their goods, for them there won't be any sense in going to the next growing season," she continued.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61548029
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:41 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.


Fair point. Will the rest of the world pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire to prevent starvation around the world?

The threat of food shortage is real, but starvation?

Wonder if it would be easier to ask American to reduce our consumption? The excess food alone could make up the difference. And we might even get healthier. :biting:

bt


Well the US could scrap the rule requiring ethanol in gasoline. It's totally unnecessary in modern computer-controlled fuel injected engines to use ethanol as an oxygenate. The last carbureted engined cars sold in the US were built 30 years ago! The engine control computers constantly monitor the operation of the engine and adjust the fuel/air mixture. It's just a sop to the agribusiness and farmer's lobbies. Not only would this help bring down the cost of fuel, it would stop the use of food stocks for automotive fuel, and it would not hurt the environment.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 pm

bikerthai wrote:

Wonder if it would be easier to ask American to reduce our consumption? The excess food alone could make up the difference. And we might even get healthier. :biting:

bt


America seems to be leading the way on reducing baby formula consumption.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 9:56 pm

Ironic considering Ukraine are getting pretty old, 2nd hand T-72 variants from allies, Russia however;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxkowDFQ ... R6pkra4mlw

Their previous generation MBT.

On the other end of the modernity spectrum, footage of a Switchblade, plus the results of the Russian army's only core competency, indiscriminate attacks on large population centers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y98U86nY9D8

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