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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 24, 2022 10:18 pm

GDB wrote:
Ironic considering Ukraine are getting pretty old, 2nd hand T-72 variants from allies, Russia however;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxkowDFQ ... R6pkra4mlw

Their previous generation MBT.


Does the UK have any Centurions to donate to the Ukrainian? Then they can re-enact the Valley of Tears battle. :old:

bt
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 2:38 am

GDB wrote:
Ironic considering Ukraine are getting pretty old, 2nd hand T-72 variants from allies, Russia however;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxkowDFQ ... R6pkra4mlw

Love the comment there:

Itimonium
6 hours ago (edited)
Imagine Historians in 5,000 years arguing wether this event was a war or a really bad executed open air museum with horrible visitor accidents.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 3:48 am

Love the map discussion. Talking about *both* sides advancements.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrbHMKELYK0

Kharkov is where Ukraine is succeeding on the offensive. They're losing villages in the East.

Good discussion on how Ukraine needs weapons. My opinion is the next 3 months are critical. Ukraine has more of an advantage earlier than later.


art wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.


Fair point. Will the rest of the world pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire to prevent starvation around the world?

The threat of food shortage is real, but starvation?

Wonder if it would be easier to ask American to reduce our consumption? The excess food alone could make up the difference. And we might even get healthier. :biting:

bt

I see that Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine said the following to BBC

"I think if you calculate it would take us five, six, seven years to export all these agricultural yields by these routes. So right now it's extremely important for us to unblock the seaports and we apply to our partners to do this," she said.

"The world needs it because Russia threatens the world with world hunger and the only way to solve this problem is to unblock the sea ports.

"If we don't give farmers the opportunity to export their goods, for them there won't be any sense in going to the next growing season," she continued.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61548029

If Ukraine doesn't plant for the next season, that is scary.

Apparently Kansas is the big winter wheat state: https://www.cropprophet.com/winter-whea ... te-top-11/
I'm not sure the tonnage impact, but the drought in Kansas means a very reduced harvest:
https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/droug ... in-kansas/

Napal's harvest is predicted to be down a trivial amount: https://kathmandupost.com/money/2022/05 ... ue-to-rain

It looks like we'll have a magnification of the shortage from Ukraine unfortunately. I'm bearish on summer wheat due to the fertilizer shortage.

Although food oil, e.g., the sunflower oil missing from Ukraine, is an issue.

Lightsaber
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 4:50 am

https://www.businessinsider.com/kissing ... tin-2022-5

So now Kissinger is calling for Ukraine to consider territorial concessions to bring this war to a quick end. And he warns that humiliating Russia too much could have far reaching unintended consequences.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:12 am

Braybuddy wrote:
Meduza claims to have sources close to the Kremlin which lift the lid on the thinking going-on behind the scenes at the highest level in Moscow. There seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with Putin and the way he invaded Ukraine, and replacing him is being discussed, although nothing is being planned:
“It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future,” explained one individual

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24 ... with-putin


Unfortunately that's a pretty useless thought. Especially considering Putin is sick, he was already on the way out before all this, it may even have been the reason for this clearly ill thought out invasion.

Now Putin's best bet to stay in power is to have everyone thinking only about the war.

What we need is these people to actually do something and get rid of Putin.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:22 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/kissinger-ukraine-give-up-land-russia-not-humiliate-putin-2022-5

So now Kissinger is calling for Ukraine to consider territorial concessions to bring this war to a quick end. And he warns that humiliating Russia too much could have far reaching unintended consequences.


But Kissinger isn't living in Ukraine, his family hasn't been killed by Russians, so what right should he have to ask for that. None as far as I'm concerned.

The only people humiliating Russia is Russia itself.

Giving any concessions is just a temporary ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup and plan again to totally takeover Ukraine.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:33 am

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
A reality check in Time:
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/


Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24.
No kidding. But nowhere near as much as they thought that they would control by now.


Frame it like you want. It’s a far cry from the point of view Ukraine can win and will kick out the Russians, as stated by some governments and members at this forum earlier on.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:43 am

cpd wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/kissinger-ukraine-give-up-land-russia-not-humiliate-putin-2022-5

So now Kissinger is calling for Ukraine to consider territorial concessions to bring this war to a quick end. And he warns that humiliating Russia too much could have far reaching unintended consequences.


But Kissinger isn't living in Ukraine, his family hasn't been killed by Russians, so what right should he have to ask for that. None as far as I'm concerned.

The only people humiliating Russia is Russia itself.

Giving any concessions is just a temporary ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup and plan again to totally takeover Ukraine.

The remaining part of Ukraine will be filled to the brim with weapons to prevent Russia doing this. On the other hand I fail to see Ukraine kicking out the Russians in the East and South, so Kissinger may just have mentioned the most realistic outcome.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:51 am

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
I would like the UN to arrange access to Odessa or another Ukrainian port as a matter of urgency to enable stored grain to be exported - I suspect that people will starve without it.


Fair point. Will the rest of the world pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire to prevent starvation around the world?

The threat of food shortage is real, but starvation?

bt


You don’t need starvation to get a mess in parts of the world. The Arab Spring was also a result of food prices that went through the roof and we know how well that worked out.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 6:57 am

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
A reality check in Time:
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/

Nonetheless, Russia now controls significantly more Ukrainian territory than before February 24.
No kidding. But nowhere near as much as they thought that they would control by now.


Frame it like you want. It’s a far cry from the point of view Ukraine can win and will kick out the Russians, as stated by some governments and members at this forum earlier on.


I don't think ceding what Russia is occupying right now is even what Kissinger and co are talking about, they're talking about ceding what Russia controlled before the latest invasion (last year, if you wish). The only reason they're saying this is because Russia "only" conquered some percents more of Ukraine, if Kiev was under Russian control they would say Ukraine should accept being cut in half...
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 7:25 am

Aesma wrote:
marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
No kidding. But nowhere near as much as they thought that they would control by now.


Frame it like you want. It’s a far cry from the point of view Ukraine can win and will kick out the Russians, as stated by some governments and members at this forum earlier on.


I don't think ceding what Russia is occupying right now is even what Kissinger and co are talking about, they're talking about ceding what Russia controlled before the latest invasion (last year, if you wish). The only reason they're saying this is because Russia "only" conquered some percents more of Ukraine, if Kiev was under Russian control they would say Ukraine should accept being cut in half...


Kissinger said: “Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante.” The magic word is “ideally” and gives a lot of room for other results. The southern front is already stagnant for some time and the Russians are digging in. Kherson is already in the proces of “Russification”, so the Russians aren’t willing to give that up.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 8:01 am

marcelh wrote:
Aesma wrote:
marcelh wrote:

Frame it like you want. It’s a far cry from the point of view Ukraine can win and will kick out the Russians, as stated by some governments and members at this forum earlier on.


I don't think ceding what Russia is occupying right now is even what Kissinger and co are talking about, they're talking about ceding what Russia controlled before the latest invasion (last year, if you wish). The only reason they're saying this is because Russia "only" conquered some percents more of Ukraine, if Kiev was under Russian control they would say Ukraine should accept being cut in half...


Kissinger said: “Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante.” The magic word is “ideally” and gives a lot of room for other results. The southern front is already stagnant for some time and the Russians are digging in. Kherson is already in the proces of “Russification”, so the Russians aren’t willing to give that up.


That is because the UA has not started a counter offence in most regions. They are mostly troops that are just defending the line and are just trying to repel Russian attacks.

The only places they had significant counter offences were Kiev and Kharkiv (the two biggest cities) and they were conducted with success as Russian forces are kicked out of those areas...
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 8:10 am

The war seems to have settled down to being an artillery dual. So the first guy to run low on artillery crewmen, howitzer tubes, or howitzer ammunition will have to give up ground. I don't see how that can be Ukraine, thanks to the brutal way Russia conducts war and no doubt the inhumane way it treats prisoners and civilian conquests.

Drones are in the above mix too, the west better have a replacement for the bayraktars in case Turkey becomes difficult to deal with.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 8:31 am

Vintage wrote:
The war seems to have settled down to being an artillery dual. So the first guy to run low on artillery crewmen, howitzer tubes, or howitzer ammunition will have to give up ground. I don't see how that can be Ukraine, thanks to the brutal way Russia conducts war and no doubt the inhumane way it treats prisoners and civilian conquests.

Drones are in the above mix too, the west better have a replacement for the bayraktars in case Turkey becomes difficult to deal with.


There are some rumours that Turkey is delivering 12 TB2 Bayraktars every 2 weeks based on flight movements from Tekirdag airport (which is where Bayraktars main production facility is) to Lviv.

Turkey might be throwing tantrums in NATO, it is supporting Ukraine where it can. They can't pick a side as they would like as the economy is already on it knees and they are extremely dependent on Russia, mainly in Gas, Food and Tourism. Public opinion is clearly anti-Russian to a level that is probably comparable to east of Europe...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 11:02 am

JonesNL wrote:
Public opinion is clearly anti-Russian to a level that is probably comparable to east of Europe...


Russia has replaced the US from the doghouse of public opinion in the rest of the world.

Lets keep it that way for a while.

If things gets tight for Ukraine, the more advance hardware like the Reaper drones, and tones of M109s and M-60s if not M-1s are waiting on the wings.

bt
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 11:30 am

cpd wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/kissinger-ukraine-give-up-land-russia-not-humiliate-putin-2022-5

So now Kissinger is calling for Ukraine to consider territorial concessions to bring this war to a quick end. And he warns that humiliating Russia too much could have far reaching unintended consequences.


But Kissinger isn't living in Ukraine, his family hasn't been killed by Russians, so what right should he have to ask for that. None as far as I'm concerned.

The only people humiliating Russia is Russia itself.

Giving any concessions is just a temporary ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup and plan again to totally takeover Ukraine.

Any concession sets the precedent that this is allowed behavior that will be repeated.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ ... ar-Weapons
Ukraine committed to full disarmament, including strategic weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia.

No peace with Russia can be trusted. They violated that security assurance. At the way the war is going, there is no reason for Ukraine to cede territory.

Upthread we talked about how western truck parts were being used in tanks and other military vehicles. The question is, how long can Russia keep this up? I believe they can do a late summer surge that will hurt the Ukraine. On the other hand, for the next few months, the situation on the ground favors Ukraine. Now is not the time to cede territory.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 4:39 pm

Ukraine can only harvest 70% of the crop and is begging for diesel fuel to run the tractors:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ti ... NewsSearch
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 4:39 pm

Discuss the topic, not other users. This is your warning.
 
victrola
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 7:51 pm

I saw lots of articles a month or so about how Russia was days away from running out of resources to continue its offensive. However, they are still attacking. Are there any new estimates on how long they can continue?
 
aristoenigma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 7:55 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics ... index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.
 
Dogman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 8:48 pm

aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.


I don't know how desperate they are, but they are definitely thieves.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 8:49 pm

victrola wrote:
I saw lots of articles a month or so about how Russia was days away from running out of resources to continue its offensive. However, they are still attacking. Are there any new estimates on how long they can continue?


I would be interested, too. I see in the media speculation/suggestion that men, equipment, and weapons are being depleted at a rapid rate. Apart from the challenge of shipping them to the conflict area fast enough to replenish stocks as they are used up/destroyed, how large are the stocks available to Russia to replace ongoing reductions through use of weapons, destruction of equipment?
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 9:52 pm

aristoenigma wrote:
More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

Russia's reputation under Putin has been deteriorating for years, but since 24 February it has been totally shredded. It bears no resemblance to any other country on Earth. If you were to coin a word to describe it, the most appropriate would probably be Mafiaocracy.
 
Chemist
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 11:30 pm

Dogman wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.


I don't know how desperate they are, but they are definitely thieves.


I once saw a concise definition of war:

"They have it. We want it. Let's go get it."
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed May 25, 2022 11:46 pm

victrola wrote:
I saw lots of articles a month or so about how Russia was days away from running out of resources to continue its offensive.


Don't think Western or Ukrainian "experts" was talking about running out of resources in term of bullets and fuel.

What I got was they were talking about the effectively of the fighting force. The human factors will just be spent/tired out. I thought they were talking about mid June to early July if the Russian can not get fresh bodies I to the fight.

According to Operator Starsky Youtube (Ukrainian Press Officer), French Caesar Artilery have arrived to the front line.

bt
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 9:17 am

aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 9:56 am

A list of what has been sent to Ukraine so far, not claimed to be totally comprehensive, note the increasing artillery and armour. Worth noting that military production in Russia was already affected by the post 2014 Crimea sanctions, hugely increased in 24th Feb essentially seriously limiting them ramping up production. Since they are so reliant on imported machinery and technology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDKYT2pikFw
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 12:54 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/s ... ifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.
 
Dogman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 2:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1529439404477100032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529439404477100032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F25%2Frussia-ukraine-war-latest-russians-trying-to-destroy-donbas-says-zelenskiy-as-fighting-intensifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.


She knows, that if Russia is allowed to win this war, then Estonia could be the next target. All Europe can be divided in two parts: those who understand what Russia is and those who do not. Oh, and Hungary, that does not fit in either.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 3:26 pm

Russian advances, albeit limited and costly, based on essentially destroying everything to 'denazify' it, Ukrainian counter attacks and the need for more artillery, MLRS systems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKabm2pjCvA

We are hearing about the potential for a major food crisis, the third world has been mentioned and countries like Eqypt, along with the price hikes this brings.
There is one other nation likely to be adversely affected too. China.
Reckon Xi factored that in when Putin assured him during the winter games that it would be a walkover, so agriculture would be unaffected, presuming Xi raised that issue?

On a more positive for victims note, the place where these are being installed has become one to join previous places whose name became notorious for systematic, deliberate, large scale war crimes against civilians. And some think, whether it be an ironic Nobel Prize winner (satire died when Kissinger won it given his record elsewhere) or one or two on here, that the Ukrainians should just settle and say 'whatever'.
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxuU4QsJ ... Mpw4knoIdn
Last edited by GDB on Thu May 26, 2022 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 3:31 pm

marcelh wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….
Russia is more desperate than you think. They have to try to rebuild their military reputation, which is probably more important to their leaders than their economy.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 3:57 pm

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….
Russia is more desperate than you think. They have to try to rebuild their military reputation, which is probably more important to their leaders than their economy.


Especially when that economy is based on extraction of fossil fuels, increasingly sanctioned and due to a pre war pivot to renewable sources already in decline, as well as sales of their much vaunted military equipment.
Putting aside the horror of this war for a moment, one lesson with Western versus Russian kit is easily summed up, 'our shit works, yours doesn't'.
And to make their kit at all, imported machinery and software. Not any more.
 
Alfons
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 4:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….


For the moment there is a stream of refugees from Russia to Europe, as the destabilization happens inside Russia. While many Ukrainians already move back to their homeland, I doubt the Russian diaspora will want to go back. Strange, no?
 
Alfons
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 4:29 pm

I'm asking myself what the russian people in power, are more scared of today. If they will win the war they started, or how the future of their country on the international parket (politics, economoy, import of essential goods/hardware etc.) will look like.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 4:32 pm

GDB wrote:
And to make their kit at all, imported machinery and software. Not any more.

You touch on something seldom mentioned but very important: western machine tools.

I hope the sanctions now prevent Russia from obtaining any modern tooling from the west, and I also hope that this ban continues until the day when we can see that there's been a permanent shift in Russian culture, away from the underdog poor pitiful me culture that has existed for the last couple of hundred years.

Russia has to end it's ongoing conflict with the west before things can revert to normal.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 6:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1529439404477100032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529439404477100032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F25%2Frussia-ukraine-war-latest-russians-trying-to-destroy-donbas-says-zelenskiy-as-fighting-intensifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.

Agreed, things territorially should go back. I do not see Russia relinquishing Crimea, though. I don't see Russia relinquishing the Donbas either. Both belligerents could return to the position 23rd February. Looking at the practicality, though, that would require the Ukrainians and Russians to give up any territory taken in Donbas after 23rd February. Would they do that?

PS Any guess as to how long it might take for sanctions, a gradual fall in oil and gas exports to Europe and ongoing military action might take to put Putin in a position where he wants to sue for peace?
 
aristoenigma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu May 26, 2022 7:03 pm

marcelh wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….


Most definitely desperate when Russians purposely cause starvation of North African babies and Middle Eastern children as a means to destabilize. Well at least the list in the world that hates Russia and Russia apologists gets longer. The support for sinking Russian ships and destroying Russian artillery and tanks and airplanes grows worldwide.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 2:41 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1529439404477100032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529439404477100032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F25%2Frussia-ukraine-war-latest-russians-trying-to-destroy-donbas-says-zelenskiy-as-fighting-intensifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.

Agreed, things territorially should go back. I do not see Russia relinquishing Crimea, though. I don't see Russia relinquishing the Donbas either. Both belligerents could return to the position 23rd February. Looking at the practicality, though, that would require the Ukrainians and Russians to give up any territory taken in Donbas after 23rd February. Would they do that?

PS Any guess as to how long it might take for sanctions, a gradual fall in oil and gas exports to Europe and ongoing military action might take to put Putin in a position where he wants to sue for peace?

I am good at aerospace engineering, not politics or war. I thought Ukraine would only last 8 days or less. So perhaps my predictions will fail.

Sanctions always have loopholes and smuggling. But eventually they will cripple Russian war fighting capability.

At this time we have until about end of summer when fresh Russian troops arrive creating a new challenge.

Peace will be a ceasefire at best. Giving up territory will result in a future war.

I cannot find (by searching) how many Russian POWs Ukraine is holding. Does anyone know?

I predict a long war. Years.

Lightsaber
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 3:50 am

lightsaber wrote:
I predict a long war. Years.

It may turn out that after this war is over, the history will show that the ground war was just a stalemate that never resolved things and it was the sanctions that either won the war for Ukraine and the west, or that caved in and allowed Russia to exhaust Ukraine's capabilities.

I think the west needs to lay down the law that any ship or plane that enters a Russian port will be banned from any western port until the Ukrainian war is over. We need to lean on the sanctions heavy now while they are the most effective instead of waiting until Russia has compensated for them.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 4:34 am

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1529439404477100032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529439404477100032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F25%2Frussia-ukraine-war-latest-russians-trying-to-destroy-donbas-says-zelenskiy-as-fighting-intensifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.

Agreed, things territorially should go back. I do not see Russia relinquishing Crimea, though. I don't see Russia relinquishing the Donbas either. Both belligerents could return to the position 23rd February. Looking at the practicality, though, that would require the Ukrainians and Russians to give up any territory taken in Donbas after 23rd February. Would they do that?

PS Any guess as to how long it might take for sanctions, a gradual fall in oil and gas exports to Europe and ongoing military action might take to put Putin in a position where he wants to sue for peace?

I am good at aerospace engineering, not politics or war. I thought Ukraine would only last 8 days or less. So perhaps my predictions will fail.

Sanctions always have loopholes and smuggling. But eventually they will cripple Russian war fighting capability.

At this time we have until about end of summer when fresh Russian troops arrive creating a new challenge.

Peace will be a ceasefire at best. Giving up territory will result in a future war.

I cannot find (by searching) how many Russian POWs Ukraine is holding. Does anyone know?

I predict a long war. Years.

Lightsaber


While Russia will bring in fresh troops, so will Ukraine and in larger numbers. They have mobilized 1.000.000 men and there were talks they could mobilize up to 5.000.000 if needed.

Numbers would be favoring Ukraine, equipment would be favoring Ukraine and morale would be favoring Ukraine. With the current attrition of men and equipment I don’t see this going for long, the speed of attrition needs to go down by a factor of 10 to create an possibility of a long war…
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 6:32 am

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….
Russia is more desperate than you think. They have to try to rebuild their military reputation, which is probably more important to their leaders than their economy.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 6:38 am

This is the most informative article I've run across so far regarding the runup to the war.

The CIA had inside information that Russia was going to invade almost five months before the invasion took place, and Biden used that information to organize an international response.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... er-russia/
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 6:45 am

GDB wrote:
johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….
Russia is more desperate than you think. They have to try to rebuild their military reputation, which is probably more important to their leaders than their economy.


Especially when that economy is based on extraction of fossil fuels, increasingly sanctioned and due to a pre war pivot to renewable sources already in decline, as well as sales of their much vaunted military equipment.
Putting aside the horror of this war for a moment, one lesson with Western versus Russian kit is easily summed up, 'our shit works, yours doesn't'.
And to make their kit at all, imported machinery and software. Not any more.

True, but “desperate”? Maybe in a year when all spares are used, the production of oil and gas is going down and “ordinary Ivan” is questioning the alternative facts from the Kremlin.

But the original post I was reacting was about exporting grain by Russia -probably- stolen in Ukraine. I can’t see something “desperate” in those actions.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 6:59 am

Dogman wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1529439404477100032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1529439404477100032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F25%2Frussia-ukraine-war-latest-russians-trying-to-destroy-donbas-says-zelenskiy-as-fighting-intensifies-live


We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn’t have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return.


In my opinion, any concession will encourage a future war. Hopefully, we can get enough weapons to Ukraine to end this unjust war and they can reclaim their full borders.


She knows, that if Russia is allowed to win this war, then Estonia could be the next target. All Europe can be divided in two parts: those who understand what Russia is and those who do not. Oh, and Hungary, that does not fit in either.

Come on. That would mean Russia is willing to start a war with NATO. The only reason to do that is commiting suicide - or knowing Article 5 won’t be empowered.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 7:13 am

aristoenigma wrote:
marcelh wrote:
aristoenigma wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/satellite-images-grain-crimea/index.html

More proof that the Russians are thieves and desperate. Wish that the UN ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... face_fleet) had more wherewithal to sink the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russians aren’t desperate; they are willing to destabilize big parts of the world to weaken their adversaries. Food shortages in Northern Africa and Middle East may ignite a huge stream of refugees to Europe and we know that doesn’t go well….


Most definitely desperate when Russians purposely cause starvation of North African babies and Middle Eastern children as a means to destabilize. Well at least the list in the world that hates Russia and Russia apologists gets longer. The support for sinking Russian ships and destroying Russian artillery and tanks and airplanes grows worldwide.

And still a lot of people don’t care/have other issues to deal with. Support may increase, but most countries are just sitting on the fence watching.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 7:21 am

Not wanting to ruin your day when you are thinking Ukraine will regain lost territory:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D


” Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.”
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 7:37 am

marcelh wrote:
Not wanting to ruin your day when you are thinking Ukraine will regain lost territory:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D


” Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.”


Another day, another nuclear threat by Russia. But some will say “this time it is different”: :yawn:
 
johns624
Posts: 5757
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 12:54 pm

marcelh wrote:
Not wanting to ruin your day when you are thinking Ukraine will regain lost territory:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin%E2%80%99s-unacceptable-%E2%80%9C-ramp%E2%80%9D


” Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.”
What he says and what he'll do are two different things. I don't think he'll be in charge in six months.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 2:02 pm

Kremlin Plans to Annex Southern Ukraine:

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months to consolidate his control over these territories and possibly deter Ukrainian counterattacks.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... p%E2%80%9D

If Putin goes for annexation followed by "anyone attacking Russian territory gets nuked." we end up with an indefinite problem along the lines of Israeli occupation of part of an adjacent country (Jordan) or an adjacent country (Palestine), however you see it. Going to be great for the world.

IMO countries wishing to support Ukraine should call Putin's nuclear bluff very soon before annexation - supply Ukraine with whatever they need to prevent Russia taking over all of Donbas - fighters, weapons to attack military installations inside Russia, whatever is needed to knock out offensive weapons stationed in Russia, whatever is required to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine's favour.
Last edited by art on Fri May 27, 2022 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri May 27, 2022 2:04 pm

johns624 wrote:
I don't think he'll be in charge in six months.


Military capabilities we can predict. Putin's ability to retain cognitive comprehension and thus his ability to maintain control, is anyone's guess, other than his doctor.

Annexing the Donbas is but an excercise in propraganda. I don't think even China will accept that. The importance would be if the Russian people will accept that. May be many will, but I have a feeling most in the Russian east will wonder why their sons are sacrificed some ideals of "caucasian" Russian.

bt

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