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phugoid1982
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 6:41 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Russia is doing rally bad at transparency international. 29 out of 100.
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/russia

The USA isn't great, 67 out of 100 (Unfortunately, due to political corruption, it is falling every year. *both* parties are at fault in my opinion).
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/united-states

Lightsaber


Ukraine isn't doing great either: 32 out of 100; can't see them becoming part of the EU soon.....
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine


This is what annoys me about coverage of the war. If you even attempt to criticize the BS argument that the west is looking to protect democracy in Ukraine, you are automatically Pro-Russian invaders which I'm not. Facts are facts. Ukraine is a failed state post cold war. It is the only Soviet republic whose GDP has declined below Soviet levels. Notwithstanding, I absolutely condemn Putin's illegal war and believe in Ukrainian sovereignty. However, it makes my physically sick when people here in the US chirp about defending freedom and democracy as if Ukraine is some bright shining light of that. I would like it to be. What worries me is regardless of what happens Ukraine will be an economic mess and even if they repel the Russians they lose. More and more civilians will continue to die which is my biggest concern. Am I asking for land concessions or as so many point out appeasement? Part of me says yes if it can guarantee peace and the other part says absolutely no because once you "Give a mouse a cookie, it's going to want a glass of milk" as the saying goes. As well, the US is escalating this proxy war which will bankrupt Ukraine a la "Lend lease" and remotely no interested in diplomacy. Raytheon and company sure are happy!

I came upon this today and although the author makes salient points I don't agree with his dismissiveness of Ukrainian sovereignty essentially not being worth much, even at the risk of nuclear war but this is much a more complicated issue than people make it out to be and diving people into one of two sides doesn't help.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/whitewa ... corruption
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 7:02 pm

The job as journalist in Ukraine...

Close call one:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/v16ozg/in_sieverodonetsk_a_resident_was_saying_hello_to/


Close call two, in this case one of the journalist team and one soldier were slightly wounded by shrapnels, another one of the journalist team has problems with hearing on one ear (this one filming).
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/v109oc/journalists_and_soldiers_under_artillery_fire_in/
Regular, they should be dead. They were lucky to get out alive and more or less only slightly harmed.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 7:11 pm

T4thH wrote:
The job as journalist in Ukraine...

French journalist for BFMTV, Frederic Leclerc-Imhoff, was killed today. He got hit in the neck by shrapnel.
His colleague Maxime Brandstaetter was also injured.

https://www.bfmtv.com/international/bfm ... kraine_AV- 202205300454.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61638049
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 7:32 pm

phugoid1982 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Russia is doing rally bad at transparency international. 29 out of 100.
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/russia

The USA isn't great, 67 out of 100 (Unfortunately, due to political corruption, it is falling every year. *both* parties are at fault in my opinion).
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/united-states

Lightsaber


Ukraine isn't doing great either: 32 out of 100; can't see them becoming part of the EU soon.....
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine


This is what annoys me about coverage of the war. If you even attempt to criticize the BS argument that the west is looking to protect democracy in Ukraine, you are automatically Pro-Russian invaders which I'm not. Facts are facts. Ukraine is a failed state post cold war. It is the only Soviet republic whose GDP has declined below Soviet levels. Notwithstanding, I absolutely condemn Putin's illegal war and believe in Ukrainian sovereignty. However, it makes my physically sick when people here in the US chirp about defending freedom and democracy as if Ukraine is some bright shining light of that. I would like it to be. What worries me is regardless of what happens Ukraine will be an economic mess and even if they repel the Russians they lose. More and more civilians will continue to die which is my biggest concern. Am I asking for land concessions or as so many point out appeasement? Part of me says yes if it can guarantee peace and the other part says absolutely no because once you "Give a mouse a cookie, it's going to want a glass of milk" as the saying goes. As well, the US is escalating this proxy war which will bankrupt Ukraine a la "Lend lease" and remotely no interested in diplomacy. Raytheon and company sure are happy!

I came upon this today and although the author makes salient points I don't agree with his dismissiveness of Ukrainian sovereignty essentially not being worth much, even at the risk of nuclear war but this is much a more complicated issue than people make it out to be and diving people into one of two sides doesn't help.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/whitewa ... corruption



Ukraine was not and is not yet a failed state. It has been massively been destabilized over hundreds of years, first by the Czars, later by the Communists, and more recently by post Soviet Russia. The Soviet Union deliberately kept countries in its sphere of interest from participating in the Marshall Plan after WWII. The invasion has discredited Russia in the eyes of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine like my wife and her friends. The situation is ripe for rebuilding Ukraine with the help of the west just as happened in Europe under the Marshall Plan after 1947.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 8:19 pm

phugoid1982 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Russia is doing rally bad at transparency international. 29 out of 100.
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/russia

The USA isn't great, 67 out of 100 (Unfortunately, due to political corruption, it is falling every year. *both* parties are at fault in my opinion).
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/united-states

Lightsaber


Ukraine isn't doing great either: 32 out of 100; can't see them becoming part of the EU soon.....
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine


This is what annoys me about coverage of the war. If you even attempt to criticize the BS argument that the west is looking to protect democracy in Ukraine, you are automatically Pro-Russian invaders which I'm not. Facts are facts. Ukraine is a failed state post cold war. It is the only Soviet republic whose GDP has declined below Soviet levels. Notwithstanding, I absolutely condemn Putin's illegal war and believe in Ukrainian sovereignty. However, it makes my physically sick when people here in the US chirp about defending freedom and democracy as if Ukraine is some bright shining light of that. I would like it to be. What worries me is regardless of what happens Ukraine will be an economic mess and even if they repel the Russians they lose. More and more civilians will continue to die which is my biggest concern. Am I asking for land concessions or as so many point out appeasement? Part of me says yes if it can guarantee peace and the other part says absolutely no because once you "Give a mouse a cookie, it's going to want a glass of milk" as the saying goes. As well, the US is escalating this proxy war which will bankrupt Ukraine a la "Lend lease" and remotely no interested in diplomacy. Raytheon and company sure are happy!

I came upon this today and although the author makes salient points I don't agree with his dismissiveness of Ukrainian sovereignty essentially not being worth much, even at the risk of nuclear war but this is much a more complicated issue than people make it out to be and diving people into one of two sides doesn't help.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/whitewa ... corruption


In my opinion the article completely misses the point! What makes the the Ukrainian fight about freedom and democracy is not the several governments Ukraine had since its independence but the Ukrainian people. Indeed in less than 20 years they have shown the world 3 times they wanted a sovereign, democratic and corruption free country (also western aligned):
1) Orange Revolution in 2004/2005
2) Euromaidan 2013/2014
3) Fight against the Russian invasion

And no, despite Russian claims, no foreign agent can manipulate a population to rise up and motivate several 100 thousands of protesters to take the streets for days/weeks.

(Estimation of the size of the protests vary, but all agree they were massive. Not the best source but easiest to find:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan )

Best regards,
Jonas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 9:57 pm

JonesNL wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A fascinating video that shows how the corruption in the Russian military.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4

It goes into why the Russian military, which had the budget to be so much more, has been less than it should have been.

From the official Russian sources, corruption was siphoning off 20% of the funds.

Colonel Kleptovsky was a hilarious example of how funds for exercises were siphoned off and troops were not trained.

It goes to show how the troops are so badly treated, they have no reason not to steal everything. Why work? Why perform preventive maintenance.

Bad corruption destroys morale. No wonder Kyiv and Kharkov were battles lost by Russia. With that level of corruption, no one is in it for the greater good.

Lightsaber

Late edit: Well the way through the video, notes a 20% corruption rate reduces the fighting effectiveness by 60% or so.


What really struck me is how asymmetric the damage of corruption is; little private selling the diesel of the tank for a few hundred bucks forces the troops to abandon a $ 2 million dollar system. The theft is amazingly small but the impact is tremendous.

Like the military experts sometimes say: It's a force multiplier, but in a negative sense…

It is shocking how badly the corruption made the treatment of front line troops and mechanics. The 20% is only the official top line number. When low level are selling weapons, armor, ammo, and fuel to get by, that creates a system that just falls apart.

Today was not a good day for Ukraine. In general a slow advance by Russian troops. The fighting in the city of Sievierdontesk, I imagine, must be very severe. (Urban fighting is always costly.) I agree with the YouTube video that it is time to retreat from that city and concede a position before it becomes too difficult to hold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeGot6A4uZs

Vintage wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The JSF and F-15EX have a role to ply. Please read up on the networked battlefield to understand.

The F-35 and the F-15 EX are two completely different aircraft.

The F-35 is worth every dollar paid for it, but the EX is just welfare for Boeing (and maybe a forgotten dream among some DoD planners for an anti-sat vehicle).

The EX is a replacement for the NG "C". The Cs could be rebuilt with new wings and all for about twelve million apiece and be good for another twenty years. The EX costs more than an F-35.

The EX is an obvious waste.


Your "Please read up on the networked battlefield to understand." is an insult, which is strange coming from a moderator.

No insult intended. The F-15EX adds capabilities far beyond the F-15C:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboo ... ies-198719
The F-15EX is a two-seat fighter that will feature capabilities that are completely unique to the Air Force's version. It will offer fly-by-wire flight controls, new weapons stations, new electronic warfare suite, advanced radar and computer, conformal fuel tanks and a strengthened airframe.
It is that electronics warfare suite that requires a second operator I am discussing. Combined with more information (newer radar), while I agree it isn't of the level of the F-35, it also isn't the hot rod fighter of the F-15C. Communication is key on the battlefield. Situational awareness helps everyone. We're going to have to disagree on the value.

What I was discussing is corruption of the Russian military that is so pervasive it isn't just an expense, but is instead a hindrance to troop morale and operations in the field.
I assumed you noted:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ury-184098
An interesting report in Air Force magazine quotes service commanders announcing that the new F-15EX Eagle II fighter jets will participate in the upcoming Northern Edge exercise in Alaska wargame combat operation, with a specific focus upon Joint All Domain Command and Control operations.
:scratchchin: Now what could that mean...

I fully agree it isn't a Gen5 fighter. But when you turn on so many networked battlefield functions, the aircraft is a transmitter which means stealth is meaningless, in my opinion. In my opinion, it is the added datalinks in the F-15EX that make it worthwhile. Let it stand back. By the links I posted, it is only delaying 24 F-35s entering the fleet, a fair trade.

We're going off topic as a couple squadrons of F-35s, a few squadrons of A-10s, with AWACS support, linked in artillery, and ground troops with BATS-D would change the entire war to a quick Ukraine victory. But that isn't going to happen.

The most critical is the lack of Russian air support. I haven't been able to figure out, other than corruption grounding too much of the fleet, why the Russian airforce isn't a major participant. By my math, they should have an additional 400 to 600 aircraft over Ukraine or on the order of 1,500 to 2,000 daily combat sorties. Why is that devastating level of air support missing? Again, all I can come up with is corruption prevented adequate maintenance and training from occurring. The same with why a horde of T-80 and T-90M tanks are not on the field. The loses sustained by Russia in tanks and aircraft isn't large versus the supposed capabilities:
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_96th ... -3119.html

Aircraft 207 losses The lack of Russian air force activity makes me think the pre-war claimed strength was fabricated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... %20rows%20
Tanks: 1,349 losses vs. an amazing (implausible) 12,000 available or a more cynical earlier report of 3,000 (which seems way too high given the inability to replace losses in Ukraine): https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2020/ ... 000-tanks/

What matters is the corruption is so deep the fighting force isn't effective. I am astounded how the world's second most powerful military has been outed as a paper tiger. A military that should have had such an amazing air force this would have been a no-contest event. As someone who has to work on system availability, the poor performance absolutely astounds me. Against a force with networked battlefield? :rotfl:

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon May 30, 2022 10:03 pm

If you are discussing fact based statements, post a link.
Moderators do not moderate the truth. In fact, we encourage civil debate.
Do not discuss other users.
If you attack another society/nation on a rant, we'll delete that as flamebait.
Be civil. This is naturally a very emotional topic.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 5:37 am

johns624 wrote:
Dogman wrote:
After fall of the Baltic states there will be collapse of NATO, and a rush by individual countries to make separate security agreements with Russia, something that Russia always wanted.
I've given this a little bit of thought and could see US, UK and Canada forming an alliance. I could also see the Nordic countries, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland either forming another or joining the UK/US/Canada one. Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would be in a hard place.

And conveniently ignoring the fact that the fall of the Baltics been induced -according to Dogman his complete post- by an US government who isn’t willing to invoke Article 5. You should ask yourself how many European countries are willing to cooperate with the US after that. A nice anecdote is that when Biden was elected and told the world “we (the US) are back!”, European NATO members asked: “yes, but for how long?” Like it or not, but that’s a broad consensus of military and policymakers in Europe. I fail to see European countries teaming up with the US after a deliberate and succesful attempt blowing up the NATO.
Last edited by marcelh on Tue May 31, 2022 6:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 6:05 am

Gazprom (Russia) refuses to deliver gas to the Netherlands and Denmark:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/05/gazprom-to-stop-supplying-gas-to-dutch-trading-giant/

So already 5 European countries don’t receive Russian gas anymore (Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark and the Netherlands)
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 8:38 am

marcelh wrote:
Gazprom (Russia) refuses to deliver gas to the Netherlands and Denmark:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/05/gazprom-to-stop-supplying-gas-to-dutch-trading-giant/

So already 5 European countries don’t receive Russian gas anymore (Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark and the Netherlands)
I'm wondering if those are the countries Russia can get away with, without having a big loss of income.
With bigger users of Russian gas it'll also be a big hit to their income.
But there aren't (m)any rational decisions coming from Moscow lately so who knows.
Merkels mantra seemed to be that due to economic dependancies you won't do anything irrational.
Germany gets gas - Russia gets money. Look how good that turned out to be!
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 9:46 am

ReverseFlow wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Gazprom (Russia) refuses to deliver gas to the Netherlands and Denmark:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/05/gazprom-to-stop-supplying-gas-to-dutch-trading-giant/

So already 5 European countries don’t receive Russian gas anymore (Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark and the Netherlands)
I'm wondering if those are the countries Russia can get away with, without having a big loss of income.
With bigger users of Russian gas it'll also be a big hit to their income.
But there aren't (m)any rational decisions coming from Moscow lately so who knows.
Merkels mantra seemed to be that due to economic dependancies you won't do anything irrational.
Germany gets gas - Russia gets money. Look how good that turned out to be!


Oil price was <$80 start 2022.
Oil price is >$110 now.
Let's say it has risen about 50% from start 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Russia can give a 20% discount to non-sanction observing customers and still receive higher oil revenues than before the sanctions started. Looks like crude oil sanctions are damaging US and Europe, not Russia. Far from crude oil sanctions impairing Russia's ability to finance the war in Ukraine, I would say they have enhanced it.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 10:51 am

art wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Gazprom (Russia) refuses to deliver gas to the Netherlands and Denmark:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/05/gazprom-to-stop-supplying-gas-to-dutch-trading-giant/

So already 5 European countries don’t receive Russian gas anymore (Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark and the Netherlands)
I'm wondering if those are the countries Russia can get away with, without having a big loss of income.
With bigger users of Russian gas it'll also be a big hit to their income.
But there aren't (m)any rational decisions coming from Moscow lately so who knows.
Merkels mantra seemed to be that due to economic dependancies you won't do anything irrational.
Germany gets gas - Russia gets money. Look how good that turned out to be!


Oil price was <$80 start 2022.
Oil price is >$110 now.
Let's say it has risen about 50% from start 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Russia can give a 20% discount to non-sanction observing customers and still receive higher oil revenues than before the sanctions started. Looks like crude oil sanctions are damaging US and Europe, not Russia. Far from crude oil sanctions impairing Russia's ability to finance the war in Ukraine, I would say they have enhanced it.

OK, only few little questions...from where by miracle, Russia will get oil the oil-terminals for the black shit, to replace all these numerous oil-pipelines?
From which global company they want to buy all these equipment, to maintain all the existing pipelines, pump systems, oil-terminals e.g. , or even to build new one, when all the material needed for these are produced by western companies? Or all crucial patents are in hands of western companies? Who will be willed to make one great deal with Russia....and after this, never again in the rest of his live any other deal with anyone, as sanctioned?

Which shipping company will be willed to transport the black shit from Russia, when:
No Insurance be willed to insure the ship/freight, even not some from other countries, like China, as they will fear to get sanctioned?
the EU and all other countries in the alliance against Russia will just inform, all shipping companies, transporting the Russian oil, will have to fear to be sanctioned?

Russian coal is already dead, oil on the fast way to the same...and Russia is so nice to break and cancel all contracts with the European countries for gas.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 11:49 am

T4thH wrote:
OK, only few little questions...from where by miracle, Russia will get oil the oil-terminals for the black shit, to replace all these numerous oil-pipelines?
From which global company they want to buy all these equipment, to maintain all the existing pipelines, pump systems, oil-terminals e.g. , or even to build new one, when all the material needed for these are produced by western companies? Or all crucial patents are in hands of western companies? Who will be willed to make one great deal with Russia....and after this, never again in the rest of his live any other deal with anyone, as sanctioned?

Which shipping company will be willed to transport the black shit from Russia, when:
No Insurance be willed to insure the ship/freight, even not some from other countries, like China, as they will fear to get sanctioned?
the EU and all other countries in the alliance against Russia will just inform, all shipping companies, transporting the Russian oil, will have to fear to be sanctioned?

Russian coal is already dead, oil on the fast way to the same...and Russia is so nice to break and cancel all contracts with the European countries for gas.


I agree with you that in the medium term oil sanctions will reduce Russia's income but for the next few months (and time is of the essence for Ukraine) I think they will boost Russia's ability to finance government expenditure. Not good news for Ukraine.

I agree that oil production in Russia will be compromised by sanctions on foreign expert input and parts. Unfortunately that will take time to come about. There is a proposal to reduce oil production to take advantage of resulting higher prices...
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russi ... 58947.html

China and Russia have tanker fleets. China embarked on a tanker program to haul 75% of the crude it needed 15 years ago.
https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production ... nker-fleet

I am sure that Russian and Chinese governments can provide insurance services if need be.

Gas... if Putin chooses, he can cripple much of Europe socially (cooking and heating in homes) and industrially (industries using gas) as and when he chooses. Interrupting or reducing supplies when Russia chooses would throw some European economies into disarray. Gas is Europe's Achilles heel, isn't it?
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 1:37 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Dogman wrote:
After fall of the Baltic states there will be collapse of NATO, and a rush by individual countries to make separate security agreements with Russia, something that Russia always wanted.
I've given this a little bit of thought and could see US, UK and Canada forming an alliance. I could also see the Nordic countries, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland either forming another or joining the UK/US/Canada one. Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would be in a hard place.

And conveniently ignoring the fact that the fall of the Baltics been induced -according to Dogman his complete post- by an US government who isn’t willing to invoke Article 5. You should ask yourself how many European countries are willing to cooperate with the US after that. A nice anecdote is that when Biden was elected and told the world “we (the US) are back!”, European NATO members asked: “yes, but for how long?” Like it or not, but that’s a broad consensus of military and policymakers in Europe. I fail to see European countries teaming up with the US after a deliberate and succesful attempt blowing up the NATO.
You do know that Dogman's post was a hypothetical, don't you? You're constantly going on about the "fickleness" of the US, but completely ignore the same when it happens to European governments. Like another poster mentioned, what about France still wanting to go ahead with the Mistral-class ships after the first Russian invasion? What about the last few German governments cozying up to Russia? What about some European countries letting the "peace dividend" gut their armed forces so badly that they wouldn't be much use in an industrial size war like one with Russia would entail? Even now, in the "real world", there are Europeans who believe that we should "appease" the Russians and let them have more of Ukraine. The old "peace at any price, as long as I don't have to pay it" crowd.
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 1:38 pm

art wrote:
Gas... if Putin chooses, he can cripple much of Europe socially (cooking and heating in homes) and industrially (industries using gas) as and when he chooses. Interrupting or reducing supplies when Russia chooses would throw some European economies into disarray. Gas is Europe's Achilles heel, isn't it?

Putin can inflict significant pain, which is pretty much all Russia is capable of nowadays, but not actually achieve anything constructive for themselves.

If Russia stops gas supply to Europe there will be pain and disruption, but with priorities set the right way (which is what governments are preparing as we speak) I doubt that this would "cripple" Europe, let alone cause social unrest (again a matter of priorities).

This would of course substantially boost popular support for even more severe measures against Russia and even more substantial support for Ukraine, so it would be yet another own goal in Putin's series...!
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 2:12 pm

johns624 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I've given this a little bit of thought and could see US, UK and Canada forming an alliance. I could also see the Nordic countries, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland either forming another or joining the UK/US/Canada one. Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would be in a hard place.

And conveniently ignoring the fact that the fall of the Baltics been induced -according to Dogman his complete post- by an US government who isn’t willing to invoke Article 5. You should ask yourself how many European countries are willing to cooperate with the US after that. A nice anecdote is that when Biden was elected and told the world “we (the US) are back!”, European NATO members asked: “yes, but for how long?” Like it or not, but that’s a broad consensus of military and policymakers in Europe. I fail to see European countries teaming up with the US after a deliberate and succesful attempt blowing up the NATO.
You do know that Dogman's post was a hypothetical, don't you? You're constantly going on about the "fickleness" of the US, but completely ignore the same when it happens to European governments. Like another poster mentioned, what about France still wanting to go ahead with the Mistral-class ships after the first Russian invasion? What about the last few German governments cozying up to Russia? What about some European countries letting the "peace dividend" gut their armed forces so badly that they wouldn't be much use in an industrial size war like one with Russia would entail? Even now, in the "real world", there are Europeans who believe that we should "appease" the Russians and let them have more of Ukraine. The old "peace at any price, as long as I don't have to pay it" crowd.

Nothing remotely on the level of Trump actively trying to yank the US out of NATO, realizing the wet dream of his godfather in the Kremlin, only just barely prevented by some of his underlings running last-minute interference.

It had long been US policy to pursue a strategy of dominance and hegemony with the allies welcome to be under US command but not really having a say or significant interests of their own and it was a long-standing consensus among many countries to keep Germany weak enough to not appear threatening in any way.

Those preferences have shifted on multiple levels over the years, as have circumstances.

Now shared EU-based defense structures and a much stronger german military are pretty much accepted necessities since US governments now apparently oscillate between sane and increasingly erratic ones and the current respite may again be followed by a new level of insanity.

European defense is still quite far away from being able to stand on its own feet but with Russia now in the process of rapidly disarming itself and demonstrating itself to be a much lesser threat than anticipated there may be enough time to build up to a necessary level (ideally that necessary level could be low, but that's not the world we live in now).
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 2:58 pm

Klaus wrote:
art wrote:
Gas... if Putin chooses, he can cripple much of Europe socially (cooking and heating in homes) and industrially (industries using gas) as and when he chooses. Interrupting or reducing supplies when Russia chooses would throw some European economies into disarray. Gas is Europe's Achilles heel, isn't it?

Putin can inflict significant pain, which is pretty much all Russia is capable of nowadays, but not actually achieve anything constructive for themselves.

If Russia stops gas supply to Europe there will be pain and disruption, but with priorities set the right way (which is what governments are preparing as we speak) I doubt that this would "cripple" Europe, let alone cause social unrest (again a matter of priorities).

This would of course substantially boost popular support for even more severe measures against Russia and even more substantial support for Ukraine, so it would be yet another own goal in Putin's series...!

The important thing is, that Russia is not any more providing any economy data, these are now confidential.....

With exception of one thing.
The VAT for Apr was down by over 30% in comparison to last year and last year was "bad" regarding COVID.

Putinistan is doing Great,,,, so Great, Greatest....You wont believe it.


And regarding China....LOL. Will China risk any sanctions from the world, for an export of 2 % or so in total? So they will risk the >30% of their export for these less than 2%, especially most of it are just cheap goods like clothes, toys e.g., which are not part of the sanctions and Russia will buy, because they have to? No one else will sell even this cheap shit to them.
Tip, China is 1 to 1 following all western sanctions.
All running contracts for Oil, gas e.g. are not harmed, but new have not been signed, when older started to expire, these have not been prolonged.
Any goods on the sanction lists....no, not to Russia.
Insurance from Chinese companies for ship transfers to and from Russia...no. For jets...no. bank transfer of money, braking the sanctions...oh sorry, there must be an issue with the connection.
Jets from lessors, Russia has not given back? They will not be allowed to fly to China and if, they will be confiscated.

Chinese are a little bit special. If they have died together with someone on the same site (like North Kore) they will never forget and they will be on your site for ever.
But they also never forget, when they have shot on each other on different sites in a war. NEVER!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict#Battle_of_Zhenbao_(Damansky)_Island
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 3:16 pm

T4thH wrote:
Chinese are a little bit special. If they have died together with someone on the same site (like North Kore) they will never forget and they will be on your site for ever.
But they also never forget, when they have shot on each other on different sites in a war. NEVER!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Sovi ... _(Damansky)_Island


They may never forget, but will not miss a good business opportunity.

They lost a lot more men vs Vietnam in the 1979 border clash. But they now have massive "investments" (make lots of money) in Vietnam.

As long as they don't run afoul of US economic ties, I believe they will try to take advantage of the Russian Economic predicament to the fullest.

bt
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 4:42 pm

I am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe. Even for just a week or two, prices would go thru the roof and scare the beejeesz out of some European countries.

Biden is considering stopping exports of US oil (products and crude) to try to lower prices in the States and not lose the US Congress in November. Maybe Putin is waiting for that action to put the hammer down.

It also appears that the rest of OPEC is pretty happy with $150 bbl oil. Almost get the feeling the Saudi's are enjoying a bit of schadenfreude.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 7:01 pm

T4thH wrote:
The important thing is, that Russia is not any more providing any economy data, these are now confidential.....

With exception of one thing.
The VAT for Apr was down by over 30% in comparison to last year and last year was "bad" regarding COVID.

Putinistan is doing Great,,,, so Great, Greatest....You wont believe it.

And regarding China....LOL. Will China risk any sanctions from the world, for an export of 2 % or so in total? So they will risk the >30% of their export for these less than 2%, especially most of it are just cheap goods like clothes, toys e.g., which are not part of the sanctions and Russia will buy, because they have to? No one else will sell even this cheap shit to them.
Tip, China is 1 to 1 following all western sanctions.
All running contracts for Oil, gas e.g. are not harmed, but new have not been signed, when older started to expire, these have not been prolonged.
Any goods on the sanction lists....no, not to Russia.
Insurance from Chinese companies for ship transfers to and from Russia...no. For jets...no. bank transfer of money, braking the sanctions...oh sorry, there must be an issue with the connection.
Jets from lessors, Russia has not given back? They will not be allowed to fly to China and if, they will be confiscated.

Chinese are a little bit special. If they have died together with someone on the same site (like North Kore) they will never forget and they will be on your site for ever.
But they also never forget, when they have shot on each other on different sites in a war. NEVER!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict#Battle_of_Zhenbao_(Damansky)_Island


I hope that sanctions are biting and will seriously disrupt the Russian economy. Without accurate data on Russian GDP etc it is difficult to ascertain the extent to which they disrupt the Russian economy.

I was unaware that China was observing other countries' sanctions against Russia. India, most of whose weapons were provided by Russia, is not in a position to do so, being in conflict with China and Pakistan. India is third in the world in terms of crude imports and is buying discounted Russian oil.

My view is that countries supporting Ukraine should be giving it full support in supplying what Ukraine needs to successfully wage war against the invaders. I hope that the tide can be turned militarily as some of the equipment requested arrives (155mm howitzers, MLRS etc). The best thing for all concerned would be if this military conflict were over as rapidly as "the west" can facilitate that to happen. I suspect Putin will not stop until he has a 'victory' to report to the people of Russia or his forces are forced to retreat by Ukrainian forces. Having seen the courage and determination demonstrated by the Ukrainians, I hope that, given the tools, they can do that job. If they can, the more other countries help, the sooner that can be achieved.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue May 31, 2022 8:43 pm

art wrote:

I hope that sanctions are biting and will seriously disrupt the Russian economy. Without accurate data on Russian GDP etc it is difficult to ascertain the extent to which they disrupt the Russian economy.
Just the fact that Russia has stopped publishing economic indicators shows that they are being hurt, bad. If it wasn't hurting them, they'd be gloating about it. Just like they do with their propped up Ruble.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:43 am

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-la ... -1.5926209

What a stupid thing to say out loud. It shows just how frustrated the Russians are at how the war is progressing.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:13 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
I am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe. Even for just a week or two, prices would go thru the roof and scare the beejeesz out of some European countries.

Biden is considering stopping exports of US oil (products and crude) to try to lower prices in the States and not lose the US Congress in November. Maybe Putin is waiting for that action to put the hammer down.

It also appears that the rest of OPEC is pretty happy with $150 bbl oil. Almost get the feeling the Saudi's are enjoying a bit of schadenfreude.



Kinda wish putin would do that. So maybe countries will have to restart pulling out coal, delaying the environmental pushes, but it will be a short term pain. Fuel will be insanely expensive, more people will take the bus or train, people will vacation a bit closer to home. Big push to get more electric cars to be built. In the long run it will be a gain!!! russia won’t get any money from Europe anymore, Saudi’s, etc. will loose a continent to unload their oil. Hungry will be scrambling to figure out how to get gas and oil in, when all the European countries block entrance to a landlocked country.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:49 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe


I read somewhere that it is not a matter of turning of the valve. Because there is lack of storage facilities, you would have to go all the way to the well head and shut those as well.

Once you shut the well head, it takes time to restart them again.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ve-option/

Maybe that is why it is slow for the US and the Middle East to ramp up production to make up the difference.

Companies wants guarantee for the long run in order to invest money to open up capped wells.

And imagine what would happen if you shut down the wells and lay off all those workers.


bt
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:17 am

alberchico wrote:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-lawmaker-suggests-kidnapping-nato-defence-minister-in-ukraine-1.5926209

What a stupid thing to say out loud. It shows just how frustrated the Russians are at how the war is progressing.


We'll kidnap that NATO guy to ask him why we the Russians invaded Ukraine. Yep, makes total sense !
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:39 am

In case anybody is a fan of irony, right now the front line in NW Severodonetsk is less than 200 yards from the Spyder paintball club in the Severodonetsk recreational park.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:17 am

Breaking, change in policy, rather rapidly, welcome nonetheless, with the supply of HIMARS and longer ranged GPS munitions for them;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61655577

Germany sending additional AD;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS-T#IRIS-T_SL
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:39 am

In an interview on BBC 24 hour TV news Dr Maria Shagina of the Institute of Strategic Studies said

- Russian GDP down 7%-15%
- record revenues from energy sales

While oil sanctions have greatly increased funds flowing into Russia, the fact that GDP has fallen sharply suggests that the fall in economic activity in the non-energy economy is much more than the 7%-15% mentioned.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:47 am

art wrote:
In an interview on BBC 24 hour TV news Dr Maria Shagina of the Institute of Strategic Studies said

- Russian GDP down 7%-15%
- record revenues from energy sales

While oil sanctions have greatly increased funds flowing into Russia, the fact that GDP has fallen sharply suggests that the fall in economic activity in the non-energy economy is much more than the 7%-15% mentioned.
This (old) graph has the break even point for Russian oil at $72 per barrel.

https://graphics.wsj.com/oil-producers- ... en-prices/

So with high oil and gas prices it makes sense that they are getting record revenues.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:29 am

bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe


I read somewhere that it is not a matter of turning of the valve. Because there is lack of storage facilities, you would have to go all the way to the well head and shut those as well.

Once you shut the well head, it takes time to restart them again.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ve-option/

Maybe that is why it is slow for the US and the Middle East to ramp up production to make up the difference.

Companies wants guarantee for the long run in order to invest money to open up capped wells.

And imagine what would happen if you shut down the wells and lay off all those workers.


bt



Wouldn't have to be long. You can flare the gas and put the oil in storage or in earthen pits if you had to. Recall those pictures of Iraq in 1992.

Lousy for the environment but great for raising prices
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:55 am

So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.

What if we were to start cozying up to Iran, would that bring them around?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:21 pm

Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.


Are Saudi Arabia or UAE siding with Russia? Perhaps they are simply profiting from the fossil fuel price rise. I am more bemused by Israel passing up the chance of arms sales.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:39 pm

Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.

What if we were to start cozying up to Iran, would that bring them around?

Who is we, if you mean Europe, based on the mindset of some posters, anyone who spends money with Russia is supporting the invasion.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:18 pm

par13del wrote:
Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.

What if we were to start cozying up to Iran, would that bring them around?

Who is we, if you mean Europe, based on the mindset of some posters, anyone who spends money with Russia is supporting the invasion.


The EU's Russian energy imports were worth $108 billion (€99bn) in 2021.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/ ... %20More%20

I wonder how much money the EU has spent with Russia since Feb 24th. $30 billion plus, I guess.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:01 pm

bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe


I read somewhere that it is not a matter of turning of the valve. Because there is lack of storage facilities, you would have to go all the way to the well head and shut those as well.

Once you shut the well head, it takes time to restart them again.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ve-option/

Maybe that is why it is slow for the US and the Middle East to ramp up production to make up the difference.

Companies wants guarantee for the long run in order to invest money to open up capped wells.

And imagine what would happen if you shut down the wells and lay off all those workers.


bt



You don't want to completely shut in a well that is producing. It's quite possible to damage the well and the formation around it. Also while it might be possible to produce a well faster, that can lead to decreasing total production from a formation over the life of a well. The owners of the well have to determine whether higher prices now will make up for discounted decreased production later.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:30 pm

art wrote:
Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.


Are Saudi Arabia or UAE siding with Russia? Perhaps they are simply profiting from the fossil fuel price rise....
I doubt things are as simple as that. MbS and Putin have found a lot of common ground over the last five years or so. Their relations are quite warm while MbS's relationship with the US has cooled.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:46 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
am surprised Putin hasn't temporarily shut of oil and gas exports to Europe


I read somewhere that it is not a matter of turning of the valve. Because there is lack of storage facilities, you would have to go all the way to the well head and shut those as well.

Once you shut the well head, it takes time to restart them again.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ve-option/

Maybe that is why it is slow for the US and the Middle East to ramp up production to make up the difference.

Companies wants guarantee for the long run in order to invest money to open up capped wells.

And imagine what would happen if you shut down the wells and lay off all those workers.


bt



You don't want to completely shut in a well that is producing. It's quite possible to damage the well and the formation around it. Also while it might be possible to produce a well faster, that can lead to decreasing total production from a formation over the life of a well. The owners of the well have to determine whether higher prices now will make up for discounted decreased production later.


Oil people are saying that plenty of russian wells are actually in permafrost. You cannot shut them and open them at will. Either you circulate or you don't. Especially older wells (and most of West Siberia -- where a lot of West-bound oil and gas are coming from -- is older wells), there you circulate a lot of water to get the oil out. Basically, the crude oil content (in the oil-water blend they pump) is often in single digit percentages for most of those wells; for the sake of physics, what they produce, at the mouth of the well, is more or less water. Stop pumping, and it will freeze. Then you might need to actually do some drilling to restart production.
There was a calculation, made when this war began in 2014, what percentage of oil wells in Russia die, if sanctions force them to stop. A lot would not be economical to return to operation -- the investment into re-drilling and realigning infrastructure would never pay off.
Those wells are marginal to slightly cash-flow positive in good times, and are not an investment target if something goes wrong.

Even some of the gas wells in the permafrost areas are apparently not immune -- they carry too many liquids along, and could plug if stopped...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:30 pm

It really gets complicated with the oil and gas.

You can't just burn it off at the well because you still have to pump it through the pipelines to keep the pipelines from degrading.

From the West's stand point if Putin dies and Russia retreat to pre-2014 borders quickly, then you would want to restart the flow soon after. So there is incentive to keep the pipeline in working order.

I guess those are the scenarios and decisions the leaders must grapple with.

bt
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:21 pm

Russia has already turned off gas to several countries. Wonder what they are doing with that gas? Perhaps filling storage caverns as the heating season has ended and this is when replenishing is done. Satellites could tell us if more gas flaring is being done.

Oil storage is another issue. Pretty soon you run out of places to put it. Recall US crude prices went negative when that happened here in 2020. But without a EPA, you can just put in pits and then pump it back out. Russia doesn't have to stop producing - just stop shipping it for a few days and see what happens.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:27 am

Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.

What if we were to start cozying up to Iran, would that bring them around?


For oil producers it isn't about siding with Russia per se, but siding with another oil producer. They don't want to have the same thing happen to them, the West deciding to ban their oil and asking for another oil producer to compensate.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:39 am

art wrote:
par13del wrote:
Vintage wrote:
So we reap the unintended consequences of reducing our footprint in the ME. We have Saudi Arabia the UAE and Israel siding with Russia. The Saudi's and UAE won't increase production and the Israelis won't furnish arms.

What if we were to start cozying up to Iran, would that bring them around?

Who is we, if you mean Europe, based on the mindset of some posters, anyone who spends money with Russia is supporting the invasion.


The EU's Russian energy imports were worth $108 billion (€99bn) in 2021.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/ ... %20More%20

I wonder how much money the EU has spent with Russia since Feb 24th. $30 billion plus, I guess.


I wonder how much of that money is spend to finance this war. Looking at the hardware the Russians are bringing in, a lot of it is at least 10 years old, from the time everyone was cozying up with the Russians.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:04 am

I don't see how it can really finance the war either, aside from high salaries for soldiers.

What it can do is buy stuff from China to fill supermarkets, and probably at some point give money to ordinary citizens so they can continue buying groceries.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:41 am

MLRS/HIMARS are the most logistically challenging weapons system in the U.S. arsenal for a reason.


Once again, it was probably logistics that determined what equipment the Ukrainian Army gets and when, geopolitical machinations aside.


https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/1 ... our-HIMARS

bt
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:56 pm

The HIMARS carries 6 rockets, if an artillery barrage is required, reloads will affect how effective the unit will be. If a precision fire is required to knock out a static target the unit may be highly effective, but in a situation where a dug-in defensive positions are being pounded by tanks and artillery, six shots in defense then reload poses additional logistics beyond the reload time. One would have to assume that the enemy once aware the units are in-country will have additional resources be they a/c etc. to counter.
Ukraine is being worn down by sheer numbers, their only hope militarily is mass fires / response whether air or land-based to counter the superior numbers they are facing. The saying is that quantity has a quality of its own, all those T-62's may be old, but the cannon is deadly enough to infantry forces.
Finland did pretty well and some posters here have mentioned them, what is not mentioned is that despite its ferocious defense, they still lost 9% of their country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_Wa ... rch%201940.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:10 pm

Russia has the numbers in hardware (maybe) but not men.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:11 pm

par13del wrote:
The HIMARS carries 6 rockets, if an artillery barrage is required, reloads will affect how effective the unit will be. If a precision fire is required to knock out a static target the unit may be highly effective, but in a situation where a dug-in defensive positions are being pounded by tanks and artillery, six shots in defense then reload poses additional logistics beyond the reload time. One would have to assume that the enemy once aware the units are in-country will have additional resources be they a/c etc. to counter.
Ukraine is being worn down by sheer numbers, their only hope militarily is mass fires / response whether air or land-based to counter the superior numbers they are facing. The saying is that quantity has a quality of its own, all those T-62's may be old, but the cannon is deadly enough to infantry forces.
Finland did pretty well and some posters here have mentioned them, what is not mentioned is that despite its ferocious defense, they still lost 9% of their country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_Wa ... rch%201940.



Finland had almost no help from the outside world, at the time of the invasion Stalin and Hitler had the pact that cannot be mentioned in Russia.
Arguably the Allies, that is UK and France, should have helped?
But they did not want to risk a war with the USSR too, likely many in political office saw the Nazi-Soviet Pact for what is was and certainly nothing long lasting.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:19 pm

par13del wrote:
The HIMARS carries 6 rockets, if an artillery barrage is required, reloads will affect how effective the unit will be. If a precision fire is required to knock out a static target the unit may be highly effective, but in a situation where a dug-in defensive positions are being pounded by tanks and artillery, six shots in defense then reload poses additional logistics beyond the reload time.


I believe that is the intention. The HIMARS will be used as counter battery and targeting logistics hub.

Any major counteroffensive would need a secure supply line. That means sufficient SAMs and fighter planes to keep the Russian planes and cruise missiles away from the major supply route.

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:03 pm

Hadn't seen this, hope no idiot in Congress plays up;
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plan ... ?r=US&IR=T
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:14 pm

GDB wrote:
Hadn't seen this, hope no idiot in Congress plays up;
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plan ... ?


No worries. The Left would want to look like they are helping Ukraine and the Right will want to look tough against Russia prior to the mid-term election, Nov 2022.

That leaves pro-Trump supporters who seem to be more busy with cultural wars as opposed to real war.

bt
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:29 pm

GDB wrote:
Hadn't seen this, hope no idiot in Congress plays up;
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plan ... ?r=US&IR=T



So it looks like Ukraine will have Hellfire and Brimstone.

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