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petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:45 am

GDB wrote:
Putin with his irrational hatred of former captive states in the shitty USSR or even worse Imperial Russia, finally losing his rag and deciding to invade, probably at some point last year.

What I don’t understand though, why now?

Had Putin done this during Trump’s presidency, he would probably have finished operations within days. Trump was at best ambivalent towards NATO, downright hostile to more then a few NATO members. Trump was also very close to Putin.

Why did Putin not play his trump card when he had the chance?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:50 am

bikerthai wrote:
My point is beefing up an arm force who is incapable of using the increase capabilities is just as problematic and may end up turning the arms over to the enemy . . . like the Afgan army. We can see now the Ukranian army is not the Afgan army.

There is one big elephant in the room with respect to historical what-ifs. Remember that two years after Russia took Crimea, the US was lead by an anti-Europe, pro-Putin leadership that held up aide to Ukraine for political ransom. I'd say trying to get more arms to Ukraine during that period would have been difficult.
bt


I do not know much about recent (or otherwise) Ukrainian history so I defer to your better knowledge. Perhaps Ukraine was not a suitable candidate for massive military aid.

Vintage wrote:
Braybuddy wrote:
Looks like the West has to hold its nerve:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=omvmmwIg

IMO that shows the path this war will take, if Zelensky can keep his army's moral up. Russia is going to run out of everything, while Ukraine keeps building up. Russia has no hope of matching the industrial might of the west.


Sad that this may become a long war of military and economic attrition. I hope that the longer this conflict lasts, the more telling the sanctions on Russia will become. Difficult to know while Russian economic data are withheld.

Vintage wrote:
The salient question is, will the west turn on Zelensky and force a settlement on him?


The 64,000 ruble question. I don't see the Ukrainians giving up on recuperating lost territory unless forced to by the countries now offering support.

GDB wrote:
I think that this war will be seen, should be now really, as Putin with his irrational hatred of former captive states in the shitty USSR or even worse Imperial Russia, finally losing his rag and deciding to invade, probably at some point last year. As Ukraine became post 2014 more stable and more Western facing.


Sounds right to me.
 
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Braybuddy
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:24 am

petertenthije wrote:
Why did Putin not play his trump card when he had the chance?

Putin believed he had no need to fear anything from the West, apart from a minor slap on the wrist, so timing was immaterial. He has been waging war on the West for over a decade now, primarily a cyber-war. But anything he has done, from invading Georgia, shooting down MH17, invading Crimea, the Salisbury poisonings and the rest, has never resuled in anything more than minor sanctions being applied. Why would he think invading Ukraine would be any different?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:17 pm

art wrote:
Perhaps Ukraine was not a suitable candidate for massive military aid.


Here is a good article

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljaze ... in-ukraine

It seems that reform really only started after Zelensky was elected. Then we had the head butting with Trump then COVID. Bad timing!

bt
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:02 pm

Found this bit of information on the KOS web site under one of the comments.

For example, the M777 achieved considerably more than a 900 ‘Mean rounds between system abort’ level of performance, exceeding the objective by a reassuring margin during tests. Moreover, it successfully completed a 20 year corrosion test, which called for the test gun to fire dozens of rounds after the corrosion testing had been completed.


The bit about corrosion makes a lot of sense if you want to reduce maintenance.

The other bit of information for the techies out there. These barrels are cast titanium. And if you know a little about HIP casting, you can see one reason the Ti barrels are better than steel barrels.

So don't poo poo the M777 in favor of the SP artilery out of hand. 8-)

bt
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:24 pm

Braybuddy wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
Why did Putin not play his trump card when he had the chance?

Putin believed he had no need to fear anything from the West, apart from a minor slap on the wrist, so timing was immaterial. He has been waging war on the West for over a decade now, primarily a cyber-war. But anything he has done, from invading Georgia, shooting down MH17, invading Crimea, the Salisbury poisonings and the rest, has never resuled in anything more than minor sanctions being applied. Why would he think invading Ukraine would be any different?


Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:31 pm

marcelh wrote:
Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…


I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:51 pm

art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…


I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.
Perhaps the Emperor has no clothes....
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:33 pm

art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…


I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.


Well he is still KGB to his fingertips, despite their fearsome reputation as an analytical intelligence organization they were useless.
That’s how you got the dangerous madness of project RYAN, paranoid KGB boss Andropov convinces himself that NATO is planning a preemptive nuclear strike.
That’s what the soon to be deployed Pershing 2’s are for, right? Can reach Moscow in minutes, decapitate the leadership. Never mind the range claim for that system was dubious.

So the ‘proof’ has to be found for this, then he becomes General Secretary after Brezhnev dies.
Lights on at night at the UK Ministry of Defence main building in London? Make a mark on the RYAN board, they must be planning for it all the hours they can. (The lights were for the cleaning staff).
A sudden increase in security around US military and diplomatic bases worldwide? Clearly preparing for war. (Never mind that this happened right after the suicide bombing of the US Marine barracks in Lebanon). On the RYAN board it goes. Fill all the spaces of ‘indications for preemptive attack’ or near to all then they would be minded to preempt the preemptive.
What’s going on in the British National Health Service? People become blood donors but get no financial reward for it, beyond the offer of a cup of tea and a biscuit afterwards. This is the Capitalist West, our agents noticed appeals to donate in places like doctors surgeries, hospitals etc. Without the inevitable financial rewards inherent in capitalist societies this must be to bolster blood supplies for war. Mark it on the board.

(Of course and how could any London station agent not know this, the NHS has always operated like this and I think fair to say is typical in Western nations too, I suspect experienced Soviet embassy staffers thought RYAN was nonsense but of course had to keep such thoughts private).

During all this, Andropov’s successor at the KGB made Andropov look like Gorbachev, he was so paranoid any report that painted the West in anything other than the runaway Ideology that created RYAN would seriously damage the career of whoever wrote it.
So their ability to do anything beyond gathering information was compromised in the assessment of it, or lack of a logical one.
Their other main role was to keep a tight grip on the USSR internally, didn’t see the falling of the Berlin Wall did they? Nor the breakaway moves in the various SSR’s, led by Ukraine and the Baltic States, leading of course to the inevitable, which they also did not see coming.

(Yet Western intelligence agencies were berated for this, Thatcher was furious about it, yet even if they somehow bugged the Kremlin or had a very high level source, it would have made no difference).

This was the KGB that a breathlessly proud young Putin joined, where he found his true home, his calling.
But when stationed in East Germany in 1989, just another clueless c**t who couldn’t see what was going on in his area of responsibility. Hence the belief it was all a Western plot.
If anything, he’ll have only got worse.
Absolute power and all that......

That’s my take on what makes Putin a poor receiver of news that does not fit with what he wants to hear, especially when he has been sheltering from COVID (grisly reading of how his government has handled that), immersing himself in thoughts of recreating Imperial Russia, writing some half arsed Mein Kampf too.

That’s how maybe we got here, on the more direct military side, what should we glean so far in lessons, one view;
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/macro-l ... n-ukraine/
 
Dogman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:58 pm

Putin just though that everything is ready. The Western Europe is hooked on Russian gas and oil, the politicians are bribed, the USA is consumed by infighting, Ukraine has a comedian in charge. Plus, he is closing on 70, and all the other life pleasure's that unlimited power can offer become less attractive at this age. Thinking about past grievances is very popular among the old men.
By the way, I would not give all the credit for the military reform to Zelensky. Most of the work was done by his predecessor. My friends were telling me that financing was stopped for many weapon programs. And training of Ukrainian military started right after 2014. I myself saw Canadian soldiers in Kyiv in 2017. I give him credit for not running away, but he screwed up preparation for war. The best thing that he's done is appointing Zaluzhniy as the head of Ukrainian military.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:45 pm

art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…


I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.

Well we had satellite images of Russian troops massing on the border along with signal intercepts and no one believed an invasion was coming, so there is that also...folks just choose to ignore, why would Putin and his inner circle be any different from our Western leaders?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:01 pm

par13del wrote:
art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Another important detail: Putin thought the Russians would have very limited resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces. They thought the majority would either deflect (happened also in 2014) or surrender. Just some muscle flexing would do the job….. o boy, they were wrong…


I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.

Well we had satellite images of Russian troops massing on the border along with signal intercepts and no one believed an invasion was coming, so there is that also...folks just choose to ignore, why would Putin and his inner circle be any different from our Western leaders?


In early December 2021, US intelligence officials determined that Russia was planning to deploy as many as 175,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in preparation for a possible invasion that they believed could begin in early 2022.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02543.html

Not saying that western governments are perfect but I think the US and UK governments believed the intelligence assessment. Without checking, I seem to remember that military help was urgently provided by the UK at least ie the intelligence assessment was accepted and acted on. I may be mistaken, so I am open to correction.

In contrast to the above, assuming Russia was informed that the Ukrainians would fight an invasion, Russia did not seem to incorporate that intelligence in their invasion plan.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:19 am

art wrote:
par13del wrote:
art wrote:

I don't query what you say about the Russians miscalculating how the Ukrainian armed forces would respond to invasion. What I find bizarre, though, is that sources inside Ukraine were not telling them that the opposite would happen - that there would be fierce resistance. Perhaps sources were passing that assessment on but nobody would transmit the message to Vlad the Bad. Perhaps the information was passed on but Vlad the Mad would not believe it.

Well we had satellite images of Russian troops massing on the border along with signal intercepts and no one believed an invasion was coming, so there is that also...folks just choose to ignore, why would Putin and his inner circle be any different from our Western leaders?


In early December 2021, US intelligence officials determined that Russia was planning to deploy as many as 175,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in preparation for a possible invasion that they believed could begin in early 2022.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02543.html

Not saying that western governments are perfect but I think the US and UK governments believed the intelligence assessment. Without checking, I seem to remember that military help was urgently provided by the UK at least ie the intelligence assessment was accepted and acted on. I may be mistaken, so I am open to correction.

In contrast to the above, assuming Russia was informed that the Ukrainians would fight an invasion, Russia did not seem to incorporate that intelligence in their invasion plan.


Yes, the US supplied Javelins, small arms, non lethal aid, Stingers IIRC, the UK NLAW and other aid too, adding some Javelins too, prior to the invasion.
The expectation was that the Russians would soon be trying to take major cities including the capital to decapitate the leadership so the support then was aimed with that in mind.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:24 am

To add to the capabilities of Russian espionage, via the 'illegals' program, Putin has even managed to make what was once a major operation a pale shadow of it's former USSR self;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... filtration
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:33 am

Russia's largest gas field is on fire.
Apparantly this started when a pipeline burst.
Last year this site also had a fire.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/indus ... eld-ablaze
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:21 am

petertenthije wrote:
Russia's largest gas field is on fire.
Apparantly this started when a pipeline burst.
Last year this site also had a fire.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/indus ... eld-ablaze


Drunk or just pissed off Ivan 'they pretend to pay me so i pretend to work' or sabotage?

Update, UK Defence Secretary on refurbished 155mm SP guns brought and refurbished by the UK, going to Ukraine, Germany and US supplying MLRS, (in addition presumably to the US HIMAT or more of the same?).
https://news.sky.com/video/ukrainians-c ... e-12635084

Unconfirmed, France to supply 15 more Caesars, (linked to Macron's recent visit to Ukraine?)
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:33 pm

A large Russian tug boat on her way to Snake island with SAM supplies has been hit by a couple of anti-ship missiles this morning. I've read reports that it Harpoons could have been used.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537693150105444353
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 5:40 pm

One of russian missile corvettes (possibly Veliky Ustiug, though the name is painted over, and possibility of it being Orehovo-Zuevo was discussed in other publications) was noticed towed up the Volga river in russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14jJFGOvWoU
Multiple splinter damage, missing radar and other features are debated.

a working hypothesis is that this is the ship, hit by Ukrainian shore batteries in one of the episodes, where either Vasily Bykov or Admiral Makarov were alleged to be hit.
Example -- a video that surfaced in early March, where multiple launch rocket system unit ambushed an enemy vessel in the sea, and observed impact(s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-WFMKBaxrw
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 5:51 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
One of russian missile corvettes (possibly Veliky Ustiug, though the name is painted over, and possibility of it being Orehovo-Zuevo was discussed in other publications) was noticed towed up the Volga river in russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14jJFGOvWoU
Multiple splinter damage, missing radar and other features are debated.

a working hypothesis is that this is the ship, hit by Ukrainian shore batteries in one of the episodes, where either Vasily Bykov or Admiral Makarov were alleged to be hit.
Example -- a video that surfaced in early March, where multiple launch rocket system unit ambushed an enemy vessel in the sea, and observed impact(s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-WFMKBaxrw


Thanks, any chance of a translation in the second vid, after 'Ruski'
(I imagine it's not safe for work!)
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:05 pm

GDB wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
One of russian missile corvettes (possibly Veliky Ustiug, though the name is painted over, and possibility of it being Orehovo-Zuevo was discussed in other publications) was noticed towed up the Volga river in russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14jJFGOvWoU
Multiple splinter damage, missing radar and other features are debated.

a working hypothesis is that this is the ship, hit by Ukrainian shore batteries in one of the episodes, where either Vasily Bykov or Admiral Makarov were alleged to be hit.
Example -- a video that surfaced in early March, where multiple launch rocket system unit ambushed an enemy vessel in the sea, and observed impact(s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-WFMKBaxrw


Thanks, any chance of a translation in the second vid, after 'Ruski'
(I imagine it's not safe for work!)


For user GDB, the world.
Full translation of video 2:
- Augustin, fire. ("Avgustin, ogon' ")
(launches, multiple)
(moment of silence)
- Celebratory fireworks (matter-of-factly sort of statement) ("prazdnichny sal'ut")
(unlcear, another voice hypothesis) - Seeing anything? ( ... "Vydno?")
- We'll see now ("seichas posmotrim")
(again another voice, unclear) - But so, we've got...? ("A tak, yest'..?")
- How'the f.ck do I know, gotta take a look!
-Something's burning? We hit'em! We hit'em, bitch! (seconds 32-33, when there is flicker onscreen)
- Russian ship, go f.ck yourself! (beginning second 36)
- Beauty!!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:13 pm

Interesting short video : https://twitter.com/factsdocs/status/15 ... 3664924672

I don't know if the commentary is right, could it be encircled Russians ?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:11 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
GDB wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
One of russian missile corvettes (possibly Veliky Ustiug, though the name is painted over, and possibility of it being Orehovo-Zuevo was discussed in other publications) was noticed towed up the Volga river in russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14jJFGOvWoU
Multiple splinter damage, missing radar and other features are debated.

a working hypothesis is that this is the ship, hit by Ukrainian shore batteries in one of the episodes, where either Vasily Bykov or Admiral Makarov were alleged to be hit.
Example -- a video that surfaced in early March, where multiple launch rocket system unit ambushed an enemy vessel in the sea, and observed impact(s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-WFMKBaxrw


Thanks, any chance of a translation in the second vid, after 'Ruski'
(I imagine it's not safe for work!)


For user GDB, the world.
Full translation of video 2:
- Augustin, fire. ("Avgustin, ogon' ")
(launches, multiple)
(moment of silence)
- Celebratory fireworks (matter-of-factly sort of statement) ("prazdnichny sal'ut")
(unlcear, another voice hypothesis) - Seeing anything? ( ... "Vydno?")
- We'll see now ("seichas posmotrim")
(again another voice, unclear) - But so, we've got...? ("A tak, yest'..?")
- How'the f.ck do I know, gotta take a look!
-Something's burning? We hit'em! We hit'em, bitch! (seconds 32-33, when there is flicker onscreen)
- Russian ship, go f.ck yourself! (beginning second 36)
- Beauty!!


Thanks and about what I expected!
 
cskok8
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:26 am

tomcat wrote:
A large Russian tug boat on her way to Snake island with SAM supplies has been hit by a couple of anti-ship missiles this morning. I've read reports that it Harpoons could have been used.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537693150105444353


Using a tugboat to send supplies?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:35 am

cskok8 wrote:
Using a tugboat to send supplies?


This is not your run of the mill tug. It's about the size of a CG cutter. Isn't this the same boat that was towing the Moskova when it went down? They are running out of supply ships.

Also, the FIRMS map is showing some a cluster of hot spots on the edge of the town of Alchevs'k for 6/17. Thats about 22 miles behind the front line. So the Ukrainan are either using rocket assisted 155 shells or they are starting to use the HIMARS. (There seems to many Dota there to be sabotage) Could there be other explanation for these clusters?

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 6:17 am

It would be very helpful for those who are following the war if someone, or some org, were to compile a daily KML file of the relevant FIRMS data. This overlaid on the Rondeli Russian Military Digest's interactive map of the front lines (which is available in KML form) would provide a fairly detailed picture of the progress of the war. With such data it would easy to either manually step through the war's progress or to automate it, using Google Earth or something similar..

Rondeli front line map:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 289064&z=5

If anybody here encounters a site that is already doing this, please post a link. This would take about an hour a day of one person's time, but that's still more than I would want to commit to.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 6:49 am

cskok8 wrote:
tomcat wrote:
A large Russian tug boat on her way to Snake island with SAM supplies has been hit by a couple of anti-ship missiles this morning. I've read reports that it Harpoons could have been used.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537693150105444353


Using a tugboat to send supplies?


Most important vessels in the Russia navy, on the few occasions their sole aircraft carrier goes to sea, at least one major tug has to tag along when, not if, it breaks down.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:56 am

Interview with Ukraine's First Lady;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... der-threat
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:12 am

Vintage wrote:
It would be very helpful for those who are following the war if someone, or some org, were to compile a daily KML file of the relevant FIRMS data. This overlaid on the Rondeli Russian Military Digest's interactive map of the front lines (which is available in KML form) would provide a fairly detailed picture of the progress of the war. With such data it would easy to either manually step through the war's progress or to automate it, using Google Earth or something similar..

Rondeli front line map:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 289064&z=5

If anybody here encounters a site that is already doing this, please post a link. This would take about an hour a day of one person's time, but that's still more than I would want to commit to.


Might want to check this: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/ ... ine/091194 It's a site updated by ten Finnish reservists and double checked from many places. It's mostly in Finnish but you can understand it easily. Click "yleistä" (general) and you get brief in English. Many parts are also translated in English. Rintama = front, nuolet = arrows, Ukraina vastahyökkää = Ukraine counterattacks.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:39 am

This site seems have the FIRMS map overlay with the front line.

https://www.saveecobot.com/en/fire-maps ... /none/capt

Need to turn on the appropriate buttons.

by
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:07 pm

bikerthai wrote:
This site seems have the FIRMS map overlay with the front line.
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/fire-maps ... /none/capt
Need to turn on the appropriate buttons.
by

That is the best yet; if that is updated promptly every day I'll use that instead of the FIRMS map. They did translate the FIRMS data into KML in order to create what they have, but I doubt if they would post just the KML for the FIRMS points. The thing lacking there is that the information cannot be displayed on a daily basis (unless done as a series of jpg files), so activity over days, weeks or months cannot be shown. Also, if the FIRMS data were available in Google Earth, a lot of other information could also be available (I have highlighted many rivers and some railroads and have pushpins for all the relevant towns / cities etc). Also, there is the fact that the GE background is from a satellite photo, so I know that the detail is accurate.

The Scribblemaps that THS linked to does provide a visual of the Rondeli information, however Rondeli provides the information in KML form, so it's transportable to other applications.

Thanks to both of you.

Edit:
Upon comparing the maps, I doubt the accuracy of the front line data from the savebot site, the Scribblemaps information is much more inline with the Rondeli depiction of the front lines and I have verified the Rondeli information a number of ways over the past weeks.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:20 am

UK MOD:

Since April, Russian medium bombers have likely launched dozens of 1960s era Kh-22 (NATO designation, AS-4 KITCHEN) air-launched, heavy anti-ship missiles against land targets. These 5.5 tonne missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers using a nuclear warhead. When employed in a ground attack role with a conventional warhead they are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause significant collateral damage and civilian casualties.

Russia is likely resorting to such inefficient weapon systems because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, while Ukrainian air defences still deter its tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country.”


https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia- ... n-weapons/
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:39 am

art wrote:
UK MOD:

Since April, Russian medium bombers have likely launched dozens of 1960s era Kh-22 (NATO designation, AS-4 KITCHEN) air-launched, heavy anti-ship missiles against land targets. These 5.5 tonne missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers using a nuclear warhead. When employed in a ground attack role with a conventional warhead they are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause significant collateral damage and civilian casualties.

Russia is likely resorting to such inefficient weapon systems because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, while Ukrainian air defences still deter its tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country.”


https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia- ... n-weapons/


A system that entered service when Khrushchev was General Secretary and Kennedy was President.
In Syria in 2015, the Russian aircraft were soon using unguided bombs, the post 2014 sanctions already impacted on production of advanced munitions since they have to import many components especially computer chips etc.

Ukraine’s problem is the slow delivery of Western artillery, good systems but only game changing in numbers, no good just pointing the finger at Germany either. Really a concerted effort is needed to deliver 155mm guns of all types, plenty of which are in storage so at least a portion can be spared, across NATO and other sympathetic nations.
The US, Canada, Australia have delivered over a 100 M777’s, the sort of numbers needed with other systems, looking a various sources it seems that 12 CEASAR systems delivered, with 6 more promised after Macron’s visit but all those towed F1’s in store? Though France took the CEASAR’s directly from their artillery units. They don’t have large numbers in service. Italy small numbers of stored FH-70’s.

UK too, Johnson’s latest visit, to avoid a politically difficult conference with members of his own party not even bothering to tell them he could not attend, no need to pre announce going to Ukraine for obvious reasons, offered essentially a reboot of the Operation Orbital training which ran from 2016-22, though much expanded and done in the UK.
I would like to think that this would include training on AS-90’s which some numbers are in storage, plus additional MLRS, though the numbers held here are not large. (Could they be replaced by some pulled from US storage to backfill?). So far we have only funded M109’s from a third party.
Once some experience gained, more HIMARs from the US too.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:49 am

According to Russian sources, they have done a big hit, they claime to have hit an destroyed the main Ukraine HQ with dozens of generals and officers for the whole east with a Kalibr missile.
To be confirmed and I have to find a "permanent" source and not the news ticker, with a link which will age soon.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:21 pm

GDB wrote:
Once some experience gained, more HIMARs from the US too.


Right on queue.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politi ... e-00040702

And again, more quotes saying its not enough.

First sets of HIMARS to in country by end of month.

Seems to me they may metering the weapon delivery with the ability constantly supplying the ammo to these system and the ability to train troops that are familiar with similar system. As old Soviet cannons and rocket launchers wear out and run out of ammo, those would be the crew to pull to train for the new cannons and MRLS.

We finally got the first Harpoon kill. Seems like it took forever since their anouncement to this point in these days of global inter-net. But we forget that the human body still operate in human time scale including a significant amount of that time sleeping and eating

I'm am curious on the stock of Soviet SAMs Ukrainian still have and when will be the inflection point when they will get Western replacement.

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:47 pm

bikerthai wrote:
GDB wrote:
Once some experience gained, more HIMARs from the US too.


Right on queue.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politi ... e-00040702

And again, more quotes saying its not enough.

First sets of HIMARS to in country by end of month.

Seems to me they may metering the weapon delivery with the ability constantly supplying the ammo to these system and the ability to train troops that are familiar with similar system. As old Soviet cannons and rocket launchers wear out and run out of ammo, those would be the crew to pull to train for the new cannons and MRLS.

We finally got the first Harpoon kill. Seems like it took forever since their anouncement to this point in these days of global inter-net. But we forget that the human body still operate in human time scale including a significant amount of that time sleeping and eating

I'm am curious on the stock of Soviet SAMs Ukrainian still have and when will be the inflection point when they will get Western replacement.

bt

There are several companies in the west, also producing 122mm and 152 mm shells; Bulgaria (Kintex, Arcon, Transmobile), Czech/Slovakia (MSM Group for the own DANA), Romania (RomArm), Slovenia...
152 mm and 122 mm artillery howitzers and SPGs are still common in the eastern European countries.

But I do not know, if Ukraine will be able to get some replacement barrels for the Ukrainian former Soviet 152 mm and 122 mm artillery systems, when the barrels will be worn out and they will be worn out in latest one or two month for many of these systems.
Ukraine is not producing them.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:53 pm

Completely missed this info about Patriots

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.armyre ... stems.html

Any additional details, or is this mis-reporting by a overzealous reporter? Or maybe we are in a gray zone. Ukrainians may be secretly training, but the real anouncement wont be made until closer to deployment?

bt
Last edited by bikerthai on Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:56 pm

T4thH wrote:
when the barrels will be worn out and they will be worn out in latest one or two month for many of these systems.


OK, I see now the urgency for getting more artilery. Even if the barrels can be replaced, the unit have to be withdrawn from the field to to so.

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:07 pm

IMO Ukraine needs mid and long range SAM capability to counter Russian cruise missiles and Russian ballistic missiles, this is a job manpads can't do.

But the Patriot system has failed every time it has been deployed in the past (Israel and Saudi Arabia). The PR people have tried to paint a rosy picture using vague statements, but the fact remains that it has yet to stop an incoming missile of any type. I don't know whether it is true or not but I have read that it is a sitting duck for anti-radiation missiles, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Presumably because of Air Force pressure, the US has put little effort into anti-air technology. We did fund Israel's Iron Dome development which seems to get rave reviews, but now that we (our ally Ukraine) desperately need air defense equipment, Israel has refused to provide any Iron Dome systems.

Other operators:
Norway has developed a system that provides three types of missile for launch, depending on the target: AIM-9, IRIS-T SLS and the AMRAAM-ER, it sounds effective but I've heard no mention of any being sent to Ukraine.

The British have the Rapier mid range system but afik have only sent Ukraine their new Starstreak manpads which are mostly useful for helicopters, not cruise missiles.

The best SAM system currently made is apparently the Russian S-400 which also uses three types of missiles for launch, depending on the designated target. Ukraine won't get any of those but they have received an S-300 system from Slovakia. This S-300 has been Ukraine's most effective SAM capability so far.

It's too bad that the US never developed an effective point defense system for cruise missiles and IRBMs or never acquired any Iron Dome systems. We really have nothing to match the S-400 system.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:59 pm

Vintage wrote:
IMO Ukraine needs mid and long range SAM capability to counter Russian cruise missiles and Russian ballistic missiles, this is a job manpads can't do.

But the Patriot system has failed every time it has been deployed in the past (Israel and Saudi Arabia). The PR people have tried to paint a rosy picture using vague statements, but the fact remains that it has yet to stop an incoming missile of any type. I don't know whether it is true or not but I have read that it is a sitting duck for anti-radiation missiles, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Presumably because of Air Force pressure, the US has put little effort into anti-air technology. We did fund Israel's Iron Dome development which seems to get rave reviews, but now that we (our ally Ukraine) desperately need air defense equipment, Israel has refused to provide any Iron Dome systems.

Other operators:
Norway has developed a system that provides three types of missile for launch, depending on the target: AIM-9, IRIS-T SLS and the AMRAAM-ER, it sounds effective but I've heard no mention of any being sent to Ukraine.

The British have the Rapier mid range system but afik have only sent Ukraine their new Starstreak manpads which are mostly useful for helicopters, not cruise missiles.

The best SAM system currently made is apparently the Russian S-400 which also uses three types of missiles for launch, depending on the designated target. Ukraine won't get any of those but they have received an S-300 system from Slovakia. This S-300 has been Ukraine's most effective SAM capability so far.

It's too bad that the US never developed an effective point defense system for cruise missiles and IRBMs or never acquired any Iron Dome systems. We really have nothing to match the S-400 system.


SAM's are a reactive way to counter a threat. And very wasteful one. Russia has a huge stockpile of cruise missiles, including "barely guided" ones. They often do it this way: take off from a place like Engels Air Force base, take position over Caspian Sea, and launch from there.
Destruction of airfields deep inside Russia, preferably with a massive first strike, to make sure planes -- all of those Tu-22M, Tu-95 and Tu-160 -- are ambushed in place -- is the economic way to do it. Shooting down each missile enroute is wasteful.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:21 pm

Vintage wrote:
IMO Ukraine needs mid and long range SAM capability to counter Russian cruise missiles and Russian ballistic missiles, this is a job manpads can't do.

But the Patriot system has failed every time it has been deployed in the past (Israel and Saudi Arabia). The PR people have tried to paint a rosy picture using vague statements, but the fact remains that it has yet to stop an incoming missile of any type. I don't know whether it is true or not but I have read that it is a sitting duck for anti-radiation missiles, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Presumably because of Air Force pressure, the US has put little effort into anti-air technology. We did fund Israel's Iron Dome development which seems to get rave reviews, but now that we (our ally Ukraine) desperately need air defense equipment, Israel has refused to provide any Iron Dome systems.

Other operators:
Norway has developed a system that provides three types of missile for launch, depending on the target: AIM-9, IRIS-T SLS and the AMRAAM-ER, it sounds effective but I've heard no mention of any being sent to Ukraine.

The British have the Rapier mid range system but afik have only sent Ukraine their new Starstreak manpads which are mostly useful for helicopters, not cruise missiles.

The best SAM system currently made is apparently the Russian S-400 which also uses three types of missiles for launch, depending on the designated target. Ukraine won't get any of those but they have received an S-300 system from Slovakia. This S-300 has been Ukraine's most effective SAM capability so far.

It's too bad that the US never developed an effective point defense system for cruise missiles and IRBMs or never acquired any Iron Dome systems. We really have nothing to match the S-400 system.

Sorry, but I do not see anymore the importance of SAM just only to fight the cruise missiles an bakistic missiles.
Russia has already wasted most of .them. And regarding sanctions...without parts and chips from western countries (and additional others like China), we will not see any additonal ones. No country is so stupid to risk to get on the secondary sanction list for the small Russian export market, when there is the risk of loosing the major part of their whole export to all of the western countries....or to be finished as company, when yourself end up on the secondary sanction listing and be banned of every part for your company from the whole west. So we are talking about all countries including China and deliveries of any part, risking to be sanctioned (so even including washing machines!).

Low flying the landscape scratching cruse missiles and S400....lol. Do you know, why there are now only "signal reduced" and no "stealth" cruise missiles in the world any more? No one needs them.

We are all living on a flat earth of course....(sorry...little bit ironic), so with luck, you can see a landscape skimming cruise missile in a distance of 30 or 40 km under best conditions. with S400..on real earth with some hills, in 15 to 20 km. And when they are additional signal reduced, you can easily waste 2 or three S400 rockets for several millions to shoot down one. To shoot down skimming cruse missiles, you will need high numbers of smaller systems, distributed over the whole country or next to high value targets..

Please note: in mid of Apr the number of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, went down from dozens to hundreds per day to one round of few at once all few days.

Iskander ballistic missile: Stock is gone.
Tochka ballistic missile: was already out of duty for years official, when the war has started. Official all already dismantled...Back from storage, but seems now also gone.
Airbased cruise missile, the new Kalibr missiles seems to be spent and they had a high failure rate...They have even spent the few supersonic (and not precise but highly expensive) cruise missiles... (regular only used with nukes)....They are out of stock now.
Shipbased cruise missiles....Kalibr all done, even the fual use aqnti ship missiles (dual use for land attack) seems to be spent now.....
Submarine based seems to be left, one or two submaries (more campable to shoot few cruise missile they do not have in the black sea) are all few days shooting some cruise missiles, driving back to Sevastopol, are reloaded and go back to sea.....
They have only few left in total, the basic minimum stock, needed, when the big WW3 with Nato will start and few, which will be only used for the extreme high value targetrs.....so regular, to terrorize some civilians, or to be shot, when again a high rank member of a foreign country will visit the Ukraine, so for propaganda purposes.

Pehaps when they collect all of the looted dish washers and washing machines, they can collect some chips to build few more (and collecting and buying used old outdated washing machines and dish washers, Russia is collecting and buxing since start of the first sanctions in 2014).
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:52 pm

For those saying the US hasn't any good anti-air system, how about the Aegis?
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:56 pm

T4thH wrote:
Sorry, but I do not see anymore the importance of SAM just only to fight the cruise missiles an bakistic missiles.


To that point, these SAMs will be important when Ukraine move the offensive closer to the Russian border. I don't see them needing them in the Kerson area but saw an article of them moving at least one battery in to the Lysychans'k area.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... -in-donbas

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:59 pm

Vintage wrote:
IMO Ukraine needs mid and long range SAM capability to counter Russian cruise missiles and Russian ballistic missiles, this is a job manpads can't do.

But the Patriot system has failed every time it has been deployed in the past (Israel and Saudi Arabia). The PR people have tried to paint a rosy picture using vague statements, but the fact remains that it has yet to stop an incoming missile of any type. I don't know whether it is true or not but I have read that it is a sitting duck for anti-radiation missiles, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Presumably because of Air Force pressure, the US has put little effort into anti-air technology. We did fund Israel's Iron Dome development which seems to get rave reviews, but now that we (our ally Ukraine) desperately need air defense equipment, Israel has refused to provide any Iron Dome systems.

Other operators:
Norway has developed a system that provides three types of missile for launch, depending on the target: AIM-9, IRIS-T SLS and the AMRAAM-ER, it sounds effective but I've heard no mention of any being sent to Ukraine.

The British have the Rapier mid range system but afik have only sent Ukraine their new Starstreak manpads which are mostly useful for helicopters, not cruise missiles.

The best SAM system currently made is apparently the Russian S-400 which also uses three types of missiles for launch, depending on the designated target. Ukraine won't get any of those but they have received an S-300 system from Slovakia. This S-300 has been Ukraine's most effective SAM capability so far.

It's too bad that the US never developed an effective point defense system for cruise missiles and IRBMs or never acquired any Iron Dome systems. We really have nothing to match the S-400 system.


I understand Patriot has been significantly upgraded since 1991, when it was still the weapon that had the limited anti ballistic designed out when under initial development in the 70's.
So maybe, unless subsequent events have happened since these weapons ended up when they did hit, it was a large part of a usually broken up, Iraqi modified Scud, such as the fuel tank. The political reasons at the time for over promising, so afterwards overselling it, was obvious. To keep Israel out of Desert Storm.

And yes, they are no real 'ally' of the US, they've shit on them numerous times and will continue to do so knowing they will still be bankrolled by them. Which makes US moaning about European allies pretty pathetic, none us ever deliberately shot up a US intel ship bedecked in the Star and Stripes, helped Apartheid South Africa get a bomb.
Almost undone the Coalition needed for Desert Storm.

The Rapier is short ranged, obsolete and leaving UK service, there is a replacement system, very capable and the Royal Artillery have taken a battery factory fresh, to Poland.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain ... to-poland/

Ukraine wants the more capable S400 system as I understand it. That's an area defence weapon.
Patriot version whatever is fielded now might cut the mustard, I don't know.

HIMARS and MLRS are in the scheme of things for Ukraine, silver bullets, they should get more ASAP but to my mind tube artillery and the best rounds they can use is easier to train on, will get there faster, several systems already in operation so training established.

You'd think supplying some systems that the US helped to fund would be the least they could do.
But why should Israel change when it's behavior, often pretty appalling, is rewarded by the giant Sugar Daddy?
(Yes, a lot of Russians emigrated to there, so what, another nation with plenty of Russians ethnically is Ukraine, I have my own view as to why they won't help, sets a precedent, going after a nation that deliberately targets civilians).
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:10 pm

bikerthai wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Sorry, but I do not see anymore the importance of SAM just only to fight the cruise missiles an bakistic missiles.


To that point, these SAMs will be important when Ukraine move the offensive closer to the Russian border. I don't see them needing them in the Kerson area but saw an article of them moving at least one battery in to the Lysychans'k area.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... -in-donbas

bt

No, I do not think so. They have only to keep the sky above their own front clear and as we have seen, wth exception of the first days, they are able to do so. And as it seems, the Russian air force has already spent all range weapons....since several weeks, Russian helicopters and Su 25 stay on their own site of the front, shoot ballistically the unguided rockets in direction of the Ukrainian front line, turn around and fly back home. So they are just doing something, every BM-21 Grad MLRS launcher can do several times better and more precise (and several times cheaper).

What they need are effective light manportable weapons against the Russian drones, so the enemy can not spot the Ukrainian forces (which will reduce the efficiency of the Russian artillery systems), systems to identify the high value Russian jammer, anti artillery radar and anti drone systems and enough drones and anti artillery radar systems to make the lower number of own (Ukraine own soviet era and modern western 155 mm systems) more effective (so force multiplyer).

This is a war, the site withh the more effective artillery will ...not loose...At the moment, Russia has now several times the amount of artillery pieces than Ukraine, some good enough jammer and anti artillery radar systems.
Modern western artillery systems are better, the 155 mm shells are several times more deadly than the Russian 152 mm shells....And Russia has 3000? howitzers and SPG in Ukraine and ridiculous stocks of old, less effective Soviet era 122 mm and 152 mm shells?

This has to be changed.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:15 pm

Latest from this excellent channel, a focus on economics with some pertinent historical parallels;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGGwO99fQaI
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:48 pm

T4thH wrote:
Sorry, but I do not see anymore the importance of SAM just only to fight the cruise missiles an bakistic missiles..............

The SAM systems I mentioned also bring down hostile aircraft - at any altitude. The Norwegian system or something like the S-400 can use their smallest missile and effectively take down drones too.

There are high value installations that require absolute air defense protection; communications centers, command headquarters, ammo dumps, artillery concentrations, road and rail junctions, bridges and large population centers. I don't know if this morning's report of a Russian hit on the Ukraine military's command center is true or not, but it provides an example. The calculation of missile vs missile cost is false accounting, you need to calculate the value of the target being defended. Sophisticated defense systems can predict where an incoming missile is going to impact and either engage or ignore as required.

Also, I don't have as much faith in sanctions as you; a tube of processor chips (or twenty tubes) take up little room and are easy to smuggle, Russia's needs aren't that great, a few hundred chips would translate into a few hundred missiles. Also, extremely high power chips like the Intel i9 series or equivalent are available in quantity in electronic flea markets all over the globe, it seems to me that the Russians should be able to adopt commercial chips to their needs; the Russians may not be at the forefront of technology but they aren't complete duffers either.

I don't have as much faith in your estimate of Russian stockpiles as you do, I don't see how you could know what's behind their border with so much certainty.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:18 pm

Vintage wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Sorry, but I do not see anymore the importance of SAM just only to fight the cruise missiles an bakistic missiles..............

The SAM systems I mentioned also bring down hostile aircraft - at any altitude. The Norwegian system or something like the S-400 can use their smallest missile and effectively take down drones too.

There are high value installations that require absolute air defense protection; communications centers, command headquarters, ammo dumps, artillery concentrations, road and rail junctions, bridges and large population centers. I don't know if this morning's report of a Russian hit on the Ukraine military's command center is true or not, but it provides an example. The calculation of missile vs missile cost is false accounting, you need to calculate the value of the target being defended. Sophisticated defense systems can predict where an incoming missile is going to impact and either engage or ignore as required.

Also, I don't have as much faith in sanctions as you; a tube of processor chips (or twenty tubes) take up little room and are easy to smuggle, Russia's needs aren't that great, a few hundred chips would translate into a few hundred missiles. Also, extremely high power chips like the Intel i9 series or equivalent are available in quantity in electronic flea markets all over the globe, it seems to me that the Russians should be able to adopt commercial chips to their needs; the Russians may not be at the forefront of technology but they aren't complete duffers either.

I don't have as much faith in your estimate of Russian stockpiles as you do, I don't see how you could know what's behind their border with so much certainty.

Perhaps after this war, not for this one. And are you aware of the price of a single IRIT T SLS or AIM?
Do you really want to shoot down a Orlan 10 with a material worth of around 3.000 to 5.000 $ uun best case and an "up to date" "high end".... CANON -EOS-D photo camera with several hundred thousands for AIM or more than 1 million bucks for an IRIS-T SLS?
Ukraine has already enough systems to get down the big drones (and Russia has not any modern one), the masses of small military ones and the high number of the cheap commercial ones are the main problem.
Ukraine needs system to identify them early before they have even reached the own lines and than easy small manportable systems to bring them down (and I am in first case thinking of electronic cannons to destroy the electronic of the drones with a pulse). A small commercial drone if they are flying just 200 or 300 m above your head, it is nearly impossible to recognize them by eyes and you will also not hear them if there is only a little bit of background noises like by wind. Only under best wether condittions you have a slight chance to recognize them, when they are several hundred m high.
And these are now the main eyes of the artillery of both sites (together with the counter artillery radar systems of the Russian army).
As already said, in my opinion the overall more effective artillery in total will win this war at the end.

Regarding stockpiles....the Soviet era doctrin was artillery, artillery, artillery.....and after this, the tanks were rolling through, what was left. As the "modern tactic with their BTGs has so miserably failed, they are again back to Soviet tactics. And they have still silly amounts of stocks of cold war era 122 mm and 152 mm shells left, it is just silly.
They just have not enough trucks to bring these all in needed numbers to the artillery front line units frim their logistic railway stations. Russian logistic is railway based.
Last edited by T4thH on Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:35 pm

T4thH wrote:
Do you really want to shoot down a Orlan 10 with a material worth of around 3.000 to 5.000 $ uun best case and an "up to date" "high end".... CANON -EOS-D photo camera with several hundred thousand for AIM or more than 1 million bucks for an IRIS-T SLS?

That is why the Norwegian NASAMS system and the S-400 have the ability to launch different types of missiles depending on the target. For now Norway's smaller option is the AIM9 and the Russians have their 9M96E, which is also overkill; it's obviously time for SAM designers to come up with a missile that is designed to target lower end drones.

A major point of my earlier post is that I consider the US remiss in not having a state of the art air defense system.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:46 pm

Vintage wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
This site seems have the FIRMS map overlay with the front line.
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/fire-maps ... /none/capt
Need to turn on the appropriate buttons.
by

That is the best yet; if that is updated promptly every day I'll use that instead of the FIRMS map. They did translate the FIRMS data into KML in order to create what they have, but I doubt if they would post just the KML for the FIRMS points. The thing lacking there is that the information cannot be displayed on a daily basis (unless done as a series of jpg files), so activity over days, weeks or months cannot be shown. Also, if the FIRMS data were available in Google Earth, a lot of other information could also be available (I have highlighted many rivers and some railroads and have pushpins for all the relevant towns / cities etc). Also, there is the fact that the GE background is from a satellite photo, so I know that the detail is accurate.

The Scribblemaps that THS linked to does provide a visual of the Rondeli information, however Rondeli provides the information in KML form, so it's transportable to other applications.

Thanks to both of you.

Edit:
Upon comparing the maps, I doubt the accuracy of the front line data from the savebot site, the Scribblemaps information is much more inline with the Rondeli depiction of the front lines and I have verified the Rondeli information a number of ways over the past weeks.


Just created this very clunky composite video from the Institute for Study of War's (ISW) daily control of territory maps: https://youtu.be/NUtvnyo537s

They produced a better one themselves: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_gvWkcd0PQ but it only covers the first month of the war.

Does anyone know though if there is a real time-lapse source to see what way control of territory really is going with the invasion? Even looking at Western mainline news sources I'm still seeing contradictory narratives over the last few weeks about the war's direction that make it seem like the actual reality is too clouded by the fog of war to know which way things are going.
Last edited by SumChristianus on Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:47 pm

Vintage wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Do you really want to shoot down a Orlan 10 with a material worth of around 3.000 to 5.000 $ uun best case and an "up to date" "high end".... CANON -EOS-D photo camera with several hundred thousand for AIM or more than 1 million bucks for an IRIS-T SLS?

That is why the Norwegian NASAMS system and the S-400 have the ability to launch different types of missiles depending on the target. For now Norway's smaller option is the AIM9 and the Russians have their 9M96E, which is also overkill; it's obviously time for SAM designers to come up with a missile that is designed to target lower end drones.

A major point of my earlier post is that I consider the US remiss in not having a state of the art air defense system.

Drones are too cheap for multi million dollar missles.

The US has been investing heavily in anti drone defenses since the prior president. No lo link, but as I enjoy the work, I do get pulled into those projects.

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