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tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:26 pm

THS214 wrote:
art wrote:
Nordstream supply reduced from about 160 million cubic metres per day to 68 million. Flow to Europe down by about a third.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJ-QpBgQfSM

Putin trying to ensure that stocks of gas in Europe are depleted so that any cut off will have a greater impact?


Remember that now is summer and heating is not needed. We shall see what the situation is next november december.


Netherlands and Germany are already resorting to coal to compensate the lack of gas and to allow the replenishment of their gas storage facilities in spite of the reduced deliveries from Russia. The issue with coal is that it's increasing the CO2 footprint of electricity generation and doing so, the European electricity prices will have to incorporate an extra burden due to the EU Emissions Trading System. I don't know in details how the ETS works and if there are any intention to suspend it or to set a cap on the CO2 price but that's another challenge on the horizon.
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:04 pm

art wrote:
Speaking for myself, I have not heard of any European contingency plans in case of Russia reducing or interrupting pipeline supplies. I don't see what action Europe can take to avoid severe problems if they depend on Russian gas.

Speaking for the Netherlands, the coal powered electricity plants are increasing their output.

They where legally banned from running over 35% of capacity to meet Co2 restrictions (and where compensated for their troubles). Now the plants can go back to 100% capacity.

This measure alone should be enough to fill the reserves to 80+% before winter starts.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2433434-kolencen ... ert-het-op



The Groningen gas fields are still intended to be closed, a decision made in 2020. However, the government is now keeping their options open. The infrastructure will remain and keep running just enough to keep them operational.

The original plan was to close the field in October this year. Now this has been tentatively set for 2023/2024.

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpe ... -groningen
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:35 am

petertenthije wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
M113 units moving in Ukraine, including a ambulance variant.

https://youtu.be/YMOaRkVdwQc

bt

Pretty sure those are YPR’s, a Dutch version of the M113.

Edit:
It actually says so on youtube, i can be such a noob sometimes. LOL


Yes, in that case they were most likely donated by the Netherlands, IIRC the design was once a contender for the requirement the Bradley won.
Based on an improvement on the M113.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:40 pm

Was the story about the Russian rocket attack killing 50 Ukrainian senior officers false?

Also did something just happen on Snake Island?
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:24 pm

tomcat wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
tomcat wrote:

On that date it would rather be the oil rig we were discussing a few posts ago. From memory this oil rig is located due east of snake island, about a quarter of the distance between the island and the western Crimean coast.


:bigthumbsup: if you zoom up on the dots for the 21st, it shows a cluster of fires.

Also, if Ukraine is now shelling snake Island, then can we assume that HIMARs or MRLS are being deployed?

And if you were wondering.

A Pentagon spokesman told The War Zone that targets in Crimea are considered fair game for the HIMARS and other long-range fires set to be sent to Ukraine.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... mors-swirl

bt


If it's not the oil rig that was hit then I don't know. But something is burning obviously :-).

Here are a few links confirming the still ongoing Snake island shelling. The last two links provide visual evidences.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1539253394094837764
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1539268070539153408
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1539284151651672064/photo/1

If I'm not wrong, the Harpoon can also be used to attack ground targets, can't it?


Per the following evidence, the oil rig (or its debris?) is still burning. A comment below that tweet is stating that the rig hasn't been extracting anything since 2014 and that it was rather used as radar and AA platform.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1539567987245682689/photo/1
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:50 pm

War comes to Russia.

Ukrainian attack with loitering ammunition on oil raffinery in Rostov.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vi6h6i/ukrainian_loitering_munition_attacks_oil_refinery/

ah and the translation, what they are saying ....

"look at that stupid drone, ha ha."
"perhaps it comes from Ukraine"
"Never"
....
"So it comes from Ukraine"
"Yes"
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:19 pm

The Dutch and German Pzh.2000 howitzers have been delivered to Ukraine.

https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/4359318 ... n-oekraine
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:01 pm

T4thH wrote:
War comes to Russia.

Ukrainian attack with loitering ammunition on oil raffinery in Rostov.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vi6h6i/ukrainian_loitering_munition_attacks_oil_refinery/

ah and the translation, what they are saying ....

"look at that stupid drone, ha ha."
"perhaps it comes from Ukraine"
"Never"
....
"So it comes from Ukraine"
"Yes"


A single attack is never representative of a war. Russia is getting their air defense in order to stop drones. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/21/uk ... -pushback/
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:27 pm

THS214 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
War comes to Russia.

Ukrainian attack with loitering ammunition on oil raffinery in Rostov.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vi6h6i/ukrainian_loitering_munition_attacks_oil_refinery/

ah and the translation, what they are saying ....

"look at that stupid drone, ha ha."
"perhaps it comes from Ukraine"
"Never"
....
"So it comes from Ukraine"
"Yes"


A single attack is never representative of a war. Russia is getting their air defense in order to stop drones. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/21/uk ... -pushback/

Sorry, but why are you linking a news regarding drones here to this event?
Do you know the difference between a drone and loitering ammunition?
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:53 pm

T4thH wrote:
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.


In this case the loitering munition was a drone with payload replaced by explosive.

It seems that some loitering munitions like the switchblade 600 may be able to operate as a drone if you replace the battery when recovered.

The lines are bluring.

As for air defense, they may be able to stop larger drones and cruise missiles, but those smaller drones and loitering munitions would be more difficult and almost impossible at night.

bt
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:31 pm

bikerthai wrote:
T4thH wrote:
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.


In this case the loitering munition was a drone with payload replaced by explosive.

It seems that some loitering munitions like the switchblade 600 may be able to operate as a drone if you replace the battery when recovered.

The lines are bluring.

As for air defense, they may be able to stop larger drones and cruise missiles, but those smaller drones and loitering munitions would be more difficult and almost impossible at night.

bt

Let me rephrase: Drones are being given warheads to make them double as improvised loitering munitions. Cameras are relatively cheap.

The issue with drones and loitering munitions is the cost to shoot them down. War becomes about economics...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Cameras are relatively cheap.


For deep strike,/beyond line of sight, or night strike, you need some sort of remote guidance.

Maybe they could rig some sort of Starlink receiver or SAT phone or even a regular 4G phone for a data link. Imagine using Russia own cell network to route the drone.

bt
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:15 pm

T4thH wrote:
THS214 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
War comes to Russia.

Ukrainian attack with loitering ammunition on oil raffinery in Rostov.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/vi6h6i/ukrainian_loitering_munition_attacks_oil_refinery/

ah and the translation, what they are saying ....

"look at that stupid drone, ha ha."
"perhaps it comes from Ukraine"
"Never"
....
"So it comes from Ukraine"
"Yes"


A single attack is never representative of a war. Russia is getting their air defense in order to stop drones. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/21/uk ... -pushback/

Sorry, but why are you linking a news regarding drones here to this event?
Do you know the difference between a drone and loitering ammunition?
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.


Why on an attacking mode?

Drone or loitering is not a big difference. Loitering is not a basic cruise missile. Not even close. Just a version of drone with a small warhead that can't be used many times.

Still a single attack doesn't mean anything in a bigger picture and my link also tells that Russia is getting its air defense better. Be it against planes, drones, loitering ammunition or cruise missiles. One thing where Russian military is top notch is air defense. That's why Ukrainians are not using anymore their air arsenal more than very limited.
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
T4thH wrote:
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.


In this case the loitering munition was a drone with payload replaced by explosive.

It seems that some loitering munitions like the switchblade 600 may be able to operate as a drone if you replace the battery when recovered.

The lines are bluring.

As for air defense, they may be able to stop larger drones and cruise missiles, but those smaller drones and loitering munitions would be more difficult and almost impossible at night.

bt

Let me rephrase: Drones are being given warheads to make them double as improvised loitering munitions. Cameras are relatively cheap.

The issue with drones and loitering munitions is the cost to shoot them down. War becomes about economics...


That is only one part of the economics of war. The other part is what can be saved by destroying for example a drone. And that is where Russian air defense is very good. For example S-400 has different missiles for different objects. Air defense is where Russia shines. Somewhere else... not so much.

I wrote somewhere else at the change of the year that Russian military is poor. Also never underestimate your enemy. And the Russian air defense should not be underestimated. It's the best in the world. Not enough money and corruption makes the military otherwhere weak.

That has been proven to be the case.

Also... Those in the know say that Russia tried to end the war fast and when that didn't happen they replaced the place of their troops. That took time. Now those troops are in new positions.

Also... USA doesn't want Ukraine to use US weapons in the Russian territory and that is wise. It would give Putin a card to tell Russians that USA has attacked Russia and then he could call reserves. Smart move by USA to read that. A lot happens behind the scenes that we are not told. This war will continue very long without political ending. West will give Ukraine weapons to defense itself but not more. Politically that is to make Russia weak. So the Ukraine will not get enough weapons to beat Russia. Politics are dirty and this time Ukraine has to live it.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:40 am

THS214 wrote:
Air defense is where Russia shines.


Then it must be inattentiveness that allowed two Ukrainian helicopters to cross the border and strike the depot or hubris that allowed the Ukrainian to fly helicopters into a surrounded city multiple times before shutting down the corridor.

Like anything else, you can have the most up to date weapons, but no motivation, it won't work as well.

THS214 wrote:
Also... USA doesn't want Ukraine to use US weapons in the Russian territory and that is wise.


But they will have no objection of those weapons are used against Crimea.

Strategically, the belief that the US will not allow their weapons to strike Russian soil would be foolish as it would prevent the Ukrainian from counter battery attack against Russian artilery shooting across the border.

Personally I think the limitation of long range rocket is just another card the US is keeping in hand, just as Russia is keeping their mobilization or nuclear card.

bt
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:08 am

lightsaber wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
T4thH wrote:
A drone is a drone and a loitering ammunition is basic a cruise missile.


In this case the loitering munition was a drone with payload replaced by explosive.

It seems that some loitering munitions like the switchblade 600 may be able to operate as a drone if you replace the battery when recovered.

The lines are bluring.

As for air defense, they may be able to stop larger drones and cruise missiles, but those smaller drones and loitering munitions would be more difficult and almost impossible at night.

bt

Let me rephrase: Drones are being given warheads to make them double as improvised loitering munitions. Cameras are relatively cheap.

The issue with drones and loitering munitions is the cost to shoot them down. War becomes about economics...


War has always been about economics. It is all about making it as expensive as possible for your opponent...
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:07 am

Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year. There are talks about opening Indian retail chains in Russia, and increasing China's presence in the Russian market. Russia's presence in the BRICS countries is increasing.

http://idrw.org/talks-on-to-open-indian ... ore-286690

Is what Putin says true and if it is will western sanctions result in the BRICS countries drawing closer together and dramatically increasing trade with Russia? It sounds like India and China may see the western sanctions on Russia as a trade opportunity not to be missed.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:47 am

art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year. There are talks about opening Indian retail chains in Russia, and increasing China's presence in the Russian market. Russia's presence in the BRICS countries is increasing.

http://idrw.org/talks-on-to-open-indian ... ore-286690

Is what Putin says true and if it is will western sanctions result in the BRICS countries drawing closer together and dramatically increasing trade with Russia? It sounds like India and China may see the western sanctions on Russia as a trade opportunity not to be missed.



I suggest you take a look at Perun's last video posted recently, China makes it's way in the world selling goods to the West, India increasingly so and needs to do more.
So they can go right ahead and snuggle up to Putin, both are run by authoritarians, that little fanatic running India certainly has Putin aspirations with controlling the media, 'dealing' with opponents, they however risk Western sanctions on there own products.
The Russian market? Poor and in decline like their population.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:38 pm

art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year. There are talks about opening Indian retail chains in Russia, and increasing China's presence in the Russian market. Russia's presence in the BRICS countries is increasing.

http://idrw.org/talks-on-to-open-indian ... ore-286690

Is what Putin says true and if it is will western sanctions result in the BRICS countries drawing closer together and dramatically increasing trade with Russia? It sounds like India and China may see the western sanctions on Russia as a trade opportunity not to be missed.

That is why secondary sanctions are required. Such an unjustified war cannot be encouraged.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:48 pm

Curious, what percentage of Russian forces have been deployed thus far?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:57 pm

art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year.


At this point in time, Putin's quote is like pulling random numbers our if the hat.

There may be some truth behind those numbers, trying to find the context however would be like walking through a house if mirrors.

bt
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:44 pm

bikerthai wrote:
THS214 wrote:
Air defense is where Russia shines.


Then it must be inattentiveness that allowed two Ukrainian helicopters to cross the border and strike the depot or hubris that allowed the Ukrainian to fly helicopters into a surrounded city multiple times before shutting down the corridor.

Like anything else, you can have the most up to date weapons, but no motivation, it won't work as well.

THS214 wrote:
Also... USA doesn't want Ukraine to use US weapons in the Russian territory and that is wise.


But they will have no objection of those weapons are used against Crimea.

Strategically, the belief that the US will not allow their weapons to strike Russian soil would be foolish as it would prevent the Ukrainian from counter battery attack against Russian artilery shooting across the border.

Personally I think the limitation of long range rocket is just another card the US is keeping in hand, just as Russia is keeping their mobilization or nuclear card.

bt


Things like that happens in a war. Nothing unusual. Early in the war Russian troops were in many places in disarray. Now their troops are in better order. So is their air defense and that's why it's Ukraine is using less of their air attack capabilities.

I doubt that USA will send long range rockets to Ukraine. Limited distance don't let Ukraine to use those in Russian soil and shorter distance is currently enough. We must remember that it's more politics than most understand. If Russia is destroyed too much, risk of nuclear attack increases. Politics, politics and politics. USA, Russia and Ukraine play that for their gain but not too much as that can escalate things.
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year. There are talks about opening Indian retail chains in Russia, and increasing China's presence in the Russian market. Russia's presence in the BRICS countries is increasing.

http://idrw.org/talks-on-to-open-indian ... ore-286690

Is what Putin says true and if it is will western sanctions result in the BRICS countries drawing closer together and dramatically increasing trade with Russia? It sounds like India and China may see the western sanctions on Russia as a trade opportunity not to be missed.

That is why secondary sanctions are required. Such an unjustified war cannot be encouraged.


Western politicians think about their future and getting in a economy war with developing countries will also destroy their economy as well as those politicians.

This war is unjustified but many developing countries don't see this different to the second war in Iraq. Their sympathy is not in the same place where western sympathy is. Broaden the way you think and you see it. In most of the western countries that is well known and therefore they can only have very limited sanctions. Otherwise it hurts those countries more than Russia. There is a reason European countries put only a limited amount of sanctions for Russian energy. Politicians don't want to see a long and cold winter in Europe. Because of these politics Ukraine will continue to suffer.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:10 pm

THS214 wrote:
So is their air defense and that's why it's Ukraine is using less of their air attack capabilities.


Not sure why would the Ukrainian use their air assets in the teeth if Russia air defense.

You still see Ukrainian use their air assets, but with limited spare parts, they would probably be wise to retain their fighter gets for defense rather than offense (edit: like defending the HIMARs which are now "in country" ). And use them in area less defended by Russian SAMs like in the Kerson front.

It will be interesting to see how Russia air defense influence how the the Ukrainian uses the larger American drones. Also, we have not seen much recent news from Ukraine or Russia of the Bayraktar drones. Tactics may have changed.

The other thing to think about is the ability for US satelites and other assets to detect SAM launchers.

Russian superior SAM assets could still be attrited using long range rockets and suicide drone if they can be detected. Just like how the Ukrainian are approaching it on Snake island.

bt
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:05 pm

bikerthai wrote:
THS214 wrote:
So is their air defense and that's why it's Ukraine is using less of their air attack capabilities.


Not sure why would the Ukrainian use their air assets in the teeth if Russia air defense.

You still see Ukrainian use their air assets, but with limited spare parts, they would probably be wise to retain their fighter gets for defense rather than offense (edit: like defending the HIMARs which are now "in country" ). And use them in area less defended by Russian SAMs like in the Kerson front.

It will be interesting to see how Russia air defense influence how the the Ukrainian uses the larger American drones. Also, we have not seen much recent news from Ukraine or Russia of the Bayraktar drones. Tactics may have changed.

The other thing to think about is the ability for US satelites and other assets to detect SAM launchers.

Russian superior SAM assets could still be attrited using long range rockets and suicide drone if they can be detected. Just like how the Ukrainian are approaching it on Snake island.

bt


In the Finnish media it has been reported that especially drones used by Ukraine are vulnerable and barely used at the moment. (Sorry no link).

In the east Russia has advanced in the last days and now some parts there are about to be encircled. From Toshkivka Russians have advanced ten kilometers and the southern part is about to be encircled. Its not clear if there are Ukrainian troops anymore. North from there is a question if Russia has enough strength to encircle Lysychansk area. Ukraine is struggling there a lot. https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/ ... ine/091194 (in Finnish Russia has a breakthrough https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008903935.html )
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:57 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year.


At this point in time, Putin's quote is like pulling random numbers our if the hat.

There may be some truth behind those numbers, trying to find the context however would be like walking through a house if mirrors.

bt
Well if India is buying more cheap Russian oil then that has increased somewhat.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:17 pm

ReverseFlow wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Putin says that trade between Russia and the BRICS countries rose 38% in the first 3 months of this year.


At this point in time, Putin's quote is like pulling random numbers our if the hat.

There may be some truth behind those numbers, trying to find the context however would be like walking through a house if mirrors.

bt
Well if India is buying more cheap Russian oil then that has increased somewhat.


Sorry, I read a lot of things in a lot of different places regarding India, so cannot remember the source for this but I recall reading that Indian imports of Russian oil have gone up twentyfold or thirtyfold recently. According to the below, India imported 2% of its crude from Russia in 2021.

While India imports 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, in 2021, the country purchased just 12 million barrels of crude oil from Russia, constituting only 2 per cent of its total imports, less than its own domestic production.


https://www.outlookindia.com/business/i ... ews-189753
 
THS214
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:49 pm

art wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

At this point in time, Putin's quote is like pulling random numbers our if the hat.

There may be some truth behind those numbers, trying to find the context however would be like walking through a house if mirrors.

bt
Well if India is buying more cheap Russian oil then that has increased somewhat.


Sorry, I read a lot of things in a lot of different places regarding India, so cannot remember the source for this but I recall reading that Indian imports of Russian oil have gone up twentyfold or thirtyfold recently. According to the below, India imported 2% of its crude from Russia in 2021.

While India imports 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, in 2021, the country purchased just 12 million barrels of crude oil from Russia, constituting only 2 per cent of its total imports, less than its own domestic production.


https://www.outlookindia.com/business/i ... ews-189753


Behind paywall but this tells why Russia earns more money from selling oil than before the war.

https://news-war.com/news/western-move- ... 0the%20war.
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:53 pm

THS214 wrote:
art wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
Well if India is buying more cheap Russian oil then that has increased somewhat.


Sorry, I read a lot of things in a lot of different places regarding India, so cannot remember the source for this but I recall reading that Indian imports of Russian oil have gone up twentyfold or thirtyfold recently. According to the below, India imported 2% of its crude from Russia in 2021.

While India imports 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, in 2021, the country purchased just 12 million barrels of crude oil from Russia, constituting only 2 per cent of its total imports, less than its own domestic production.


https://www.outlookindia.com/business/i ... ews-189753


Behind paywall but this tells why Russia earns more money from selling oil than before the war.

https://news-war.com/news/western-move- ... 0the%20war.


All the oil exporters make more money now than before Feb 24 given that the oil prices have gone up. There were also reports that India had obtained significant discounts on its recent oil purchases from Russia. So Russia may actually be underperforming its peers. In any case, this short term accounting is of little value. What matters is the long term and the volumes they will keep exporting. The western sanctions should make it difficult for Russia to maintain its output due to the lack of mechanical components to maintain and renew its oil fields. Western companies were also providing engineering services to develop new fields in challenging environments. Let's see how Russia will handle that without western suppliers.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:00 pm

art wrote:
I recall reading that Indian imports of Russian oil have gone up twentyfold or thirtyfold recently.


Build up your reserve when the price is cheap! :bigthumbsup:

The trade value need to be fleshed out. It is a given that Russia is earning lots of cash selling oil to India, China and yes even Europe. But how much will it help the war effort other than keeping their people fed? Will it enable them to pay rheir soldier more in order to fill the ranks? Will it even make a difference.

Read some quote from a Russian blogger on the KOS web site. Russia is slowly loosing its modern weapon and Ukrainian is slowly replacing its old weapons with modern western ones. It's like a race where Russia started way ahead and is running backward and Ukrainian is trying to catch up before time runs out.

Even with the recent success, it took how many months since the withdraw from Kyiv for Russia to reach this far in the East? Who here think the Ukrainian line will collapse? And even if there is a break, who thinks Russia has the resources to exploit? Their strategy of advance though artillery means that it would take another couple of months to level Lisechansk. By then Ukraine may be already across the river on the other side of Kerson.

bt
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:34 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
I recall reading that Indian imports of Russian oil have gone up twentyfold or thirtyfold recently.


Build up your reserve when the price is cheap! :bigthumbsup:

The trade value need to be fleshed out. It is a given that Russia is earning lots of cash selling oil to India, China and yes even Europe.


I think you are bang on the nail there.

bikerthai wrote:
[ But how much will it help the war effort other than keeping their people fed? Will it enable them to pay rheir soldier more in order to fill the ranks? Will it even make a difference.


I don't think the Russian government has financial problems, given that I recall it was running a surplus rather than a deficit before the invasion. Is Russia self sufficient with food? If it is, no problems there. If not, pay suppliers a premium over market price if necessary.

bikerthai wrote:
Read some quote from a Russian blogger on the KOS web site. Russia is slowly loosing its modern weapon and Ukrainian is slowly replacing its old weapons with modern western ones.


Encouraging to those opposed to the invasion.

bikerthai wrote:
It's like a race where Russia started way ahead and is running backward and Ukrainian is trying to catch up before time runs out.


Disconcerting to those opposed to the invasion? Weapons and training are needed fast but while weapons can be delivered in hours or days the expertise to use them cannot
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:42 pm

The implications around Ukraine's EU membership bid;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxgjBoC8 ... m3_SfljGoG

But not just Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXpBj2NDfWc
 
art
Posts: 4857
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:11 pm

GDB wrote:
The implications around Ukraine's EU membership bid;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxgjBoC8 ... m3_SfljGoG

But not just Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXpBj2NDfWc


I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.
 
AtomicGarden
Posts: 456
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:52 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
Curious, what percentage of Russian forces have been deployed thus far?


https://www.minusrus.com/en

very biased source, but interesting anyway
 
tomcat
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Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:08 pm

art wrote:
GDB wrote:
The implications around Ukraine's EU membership bid;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxgjBoC8 ... m3_SfljGoG

But not just Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXpBj2NDfWc


I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


It's Greece which manipulated its own accounts and the other EU leaders happily believed into the Greek miracle. Regarding the accession to EU membership, the requirements are mainly about implementing legislative and economic reforms but there are no financial requirements. I think it's more difficult for a country to enact fake laws than window-dressing its public deficit for example.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:14 pm

tomcat wrote:
All the oil exporters make more money now than before Feb 24 given that the oil prices have gone up. There were also reports that India had obtained significant discounts on its recent oil purchases from Russia. So Russia may actually be underperforming its peers. In any case, this short term accounting is of little value. What matters is the long term and the volumes they will keep exporting. The western sanctions should make it difficult for Russia to maintain its output due to the lack of mechanical components to maintain and renew its oil fields. Western companies were also providing engineering services to develop new fields in challenging environments. Let's see how Russia will handle that without western suppliers.

Western companies provided equipment to states attempting to and who ultimately built nuclear weapons, and you are hoping they will not supply Russia with parts and components needed for continued oil production?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:34 pm

art wrote:
If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


Ukraine has something Greece does not have: commodities like agricultural products and potential for energy production. Probably can look to Poland as a template

bt
 
tomcat
Posts: 1035
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:51 pm

par13del wrote:
tomcat wrote:
All the oil exporters make more money now than before Feb 24 given that the oil prices have gone up. There were also reports that India had obtained significant discounts on its recent oil purchases from Russia. So Russia may actually be underperforming its peers. In any case, this short term accounting is of little value. What matters is the long term and the volumes they will keep exporting. The western sanctions should make it difficult for Russia to maintain its output due to the lack of mechanical components to maintain and renew its oil fields. Western companies were also providing engineering services to develop new fields in challenging environments. Let's see how Russia will handle that without western suppliers.

Western companies provided equipment to states attempting to and who ultimately built nuclear weapons, and you are hoping they will not supply Russia with parts and components needed for continued oil production?


Well, that's the theory of the sanctions. The reality may end up a bit different but I would still think that the sanctions will make the life of the Russian oil industry more difficult than in absence of sanctions. If the sanctions are not lifted before then, let's see how the Russian oil & gas industry will have evolved over the next 5 to 10 years.

For my own info, those states attempting to built nuclear weapons, were they under some sort of embargo preventing them to acquire said equipment?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:52 pm

tomcat wrote:
art wrote:
I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


It's Greece which manipulated its own accounts and the other EU leaders happily believed into the Greek miracle. Regarding the accession to EU membership, the requirements are mainly about implementing legislative and economic reforms but there are no financial requirements. I think it's more difficult for a country to enact fake laws than window-dressing its public deficit for example.


Fair enough - Greece deceived the EU about its financial position. However, I think that the EU did not want their 'auditors' to uncover things that would prejudice the prospects of Greece meeting the rules required to join the euro project. I think that expansion of the euro system outweighed due diligence on the part of the EU.. Due diligence played second fiddle to political intent.
 
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par13del
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:27 am

tomcat wrote:
par13del wrote:
tomcat wrote:
All the oil exporters make more money now than before Feb 24 given that the oil prices have gone up. There were also reports that India had obtained significant discounts on its recent oil purchases from Russia. So Russia may actually be underperforming its peers. In any case, this short term accounting is of little value. What matters is the long term and the volumes they will keep exporting. The western sanctions should make it difficult for Russia to maintain its output due to the lack of mechanical components to maintain and renew its oil fields. Western companies were also providing engineering services to develop new fields in challenging environments. Let's see how Russia will handle that without western suppliers.

Western companies provided equipment to states attempting to and who ultimately built nuclear weapons, and you are hoping they will not supply Russia with parts and components needed for continued oil production?


Well, that's the theory of the sanctions. The reality may end up a bit different but I would still think that the sanctions will make the life of the Russian oil industry more difficult than in absence of sanctions. If the sanctions are not lifted before then, let's see how the Russian oil & gas industry will have evolved over the next 5 to 10 years.

For my own info, those states attempting to built nuclear weapons, were they under some sort of embargo preventing them to acquire said equipment?

Invention of the term Dual Use Technology, expect something new like Human Use Equipment.....North Korea, Iran, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Israel, Libya, Iraq all benefitted from western companies finding ways to supply the needs of their customers to get around actual embargos and or prohibited sales of technology.
Will it be more difficult sure, but if the need equipment for oil production if not purchased the plans will be made available, we have already seen evidence of them useing commercial components in military equipment, where there is a will......
 
Oykie
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:04 am

art wrote:
GDB wrote:
The implications around Ukraine's EU membership bid;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxgjBoC8 ... m3_SfljGoG

But not just Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXpBj2NDfWc


I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


During normal times, I would agree that it would take many years or decades for Ukraine and Moldova to become members. But I read yesterday that the E.U. have realized that European countries that are not member states or members of NATO will be up for grabs by Putin. That realization will speed up the process.
 
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alberchico
Topic Author
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:40 am

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnic ... 0310665217

Wow. I have never seen a surface to air missile go crazy like this and almost kill its launch crew.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2010
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:57 am

Oykie wrote:
art wrote:
GDB wrote:
The implications around Ukraine's EU membership bid;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxgjBoC8 ... m3_SfljGoG

But not just Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXpBj2NDfWc


I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


During normal times, I would agree that it would take many years or decades for Ukraine and Moldova to become members. But I read yesterday that the E.U. have realized that European countries that are not member states or members of NATO will be up for grabs by Putin. That realization will speed up the process.


What about Hungary? An EU member and a Russian Trojan horse.
I don’t think “speeding up the process” is the way to go. The EU has some basic values which have to be met. Look at Serbia; they already are in this proces for 20 years and Ukraine/Moldova aren’t at the same level Serbia was 20 years ago. Another point to take into consideration is that there are big differences within Europe and the western/northern (and wealthiest) part won’t accept a further shift of power to the East. Current eastern members have another opinion about basic democratic values/freedom of speech/personal rights/etc. I’ve already mentioned Hungary, but also Poland has a very populistic government which is acting against those basic EU values. Ukraine can’t met those values now and won’t meet those in 10-20 years. EU should help Ukraine as much as possible and can become a very close “non-member” (like Norway) faster.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:00 am

marcelh wrote:
Oykie wrote:
art wrote:

I doubt that Ukraine will join the EU for many years. I do remember, however, the financial figures being manipulated by the EU so that Greece could qualify to adopt the euro (resulting in the later devastation of their economy). I hope the EU is wiser in its treatment of the Ukraine application for membership. If Ukraine does not qualify, Ukraine does not qualify. Being invaded by Russia does not change that.


During normal times, I would agree that it would take many years or decades for Ukraine and Moldova to become members. But I read yesterday that the E.U. have realized that European countries that are not member states or members of NATO will be up for grabs by Putin. That realization will speed up the process.


What about Hungary? An EU member and a Russian Trojan horse.
I don’t think “speeding up the process” is the way to go. The EU has some basic values which have to be met. Look at Serbia; they already are in this proces for 20 years and Ukraine/Moldova aren’t at the same level Serbia was 20 years ago. Another point to take into consideration is that there are big differences within Europe and the western/northern (and wealthiest) part won’t accept a further shift of power to the East. Current eastern members have another opinion about basic democratic values/freedom of speech/personal rights/etc. I’ve already mentioned Hungary, but also Poland has a very populistic government which is acting against those basic EU values. Ukraine can’t met those values now and won’t meet those in 10-20 years. EU should help Ukraine as much as possible and can become a very close “non-member” (like Norway) faster.


You should maybe be heartened by the lengths people in Ukraine have already gone through more than once, to get closer to Europe, out of the corrupting, kleptocracy of Putin’s Russia and the reaction in both 2004 and worse, 2014, with of course the ultimate aim of EU membership.
No other prospective member has gone through what they have, who else was attacked and lost territory for even talking about moving in that direction?

Hungary? Yes Orban is a nasty, undemocratic piece of work, he however is mortal and his government is firmly in his image, if he is breaking EU values, punish him.
Poland, again the ironically named Law and Justice Party has been in before, it’s lost power before too, however are they not in part a reaction to the ‘welcome’ they received from notably France in the early years of membership, finger wagging bossiness from France?
Poland brought mass and economic potential.
Presumably Chirac was less than pleased at the lobbying from members such as the UK, Netherlands and others, in the logic of Presidents of the 5th Republic, anything that diminishes French leadership in the EU, real or imagined, does not go down well.
Germany less so though remember at the time their Chancellor would soon go on to shill for Putin.

Serbia? Still beefing with neighbors/the world in general since the 12th century.
Does the same apply to Moldova? Their main concern being the clear and present danger from Russia.
That sort of concern drives change.
And yes, that latest not very substantive visit most recently by Johnson was somewhat nauseous, he ran (not for the first time, he once went to Afghanistan for a day than be in the Commons to vote against something he had pledged to his constituents he would not do), to Ukraine, to avoid being asked awkward questions by members of his own party at a conference for his ‘flagship’ policy. The man who purely for his own advancement pulled the UK out of the EU, posing with someone desperately trying to join was not lost on plenty here.
 
VolvoBus
Posts: 300
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:41 am

If this has been discussed already, I apologise and mods can delete.

After announcing that the two Brits taken prisoner were mercenaries and not protected by the Geneva Convention, how are Putin and Lavrov going to spin this one ?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... 177e3748ee

It's not the lead story,it's the continuation about the SU-25 shot down, and the Intelligence claim that the pilot has admitted to being a former Russian Air Force major, operating as a contractor with Wagner, a private military contractor. I wonder whether he realised that his own government would potentially leave him dangling from a tree, but Wagner's reputation is such that the Geneva Convention does not figure highly in their priorities.

What do people think should,or will,transpire in this overall situation ?
 
GDB
Posts: 15368
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:00 am

At the start, most thought that this war would quickly go to a partisan action, on a perhaps WW2 scale.
There is partisan activity, though at a more targeted level;
https://www.youtube.com/c/AdamSomething/community
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:59 am

Well, that's one way to keep the Russian Air Force from targeting your HIMARs. Launch them at night.

https://youtu.be/d4bimCIcpH4

bt
 
marcelh
Posts: 2010
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:46 pm

GDB wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Oykie wrote:

During normal times, I would agree that it would take many years or decades for Ukraine and Moldova to become members. But I read yesterday that the E.U. have realized that European countries that are not member states or members of NATO will be up for grabs by Putin. That realization will speed up the process.


What about Hungary? An EU member and a Russian Trojan horse.
I don’t think “speeding up the process” is the way to go. The EU has some basic values which have to be met. Look at Serbia; they already are in this proces for 20 years and Ukraine/Moldova aren’t at the same level Serbia was 20 years ago. Another point to take into consideration is that there are big differences within Europe and the western/northern (and wealthiest) part won’t accept a further shift of power to the East. Current eastern members have another opinion about basic democratic values/freedom of speech/personal rights/etc. I’ve already mentioned Hungary, but also Poland has a very populistic government which is acting against those basic EU values. Ukraine can’t met those values now and won’t meet those in 10-20 years. EU should help Ukraine as much as possible and can become a very close “non-member” (like Norway) faster.


You should maybe be heartened by the lengths people in Ukraine have already gone through more than once, to get closer to Europe, out of the corrupting, kleptocracy of Putin’s Russia and the reaction in both 2004 and worse, 2014, with of course the ultimate aim of EU membership.
No other prospective member has gone through what they have, who else was attacked and lost territory for even talking about moving in that direction?


I'm nog against Ukraine trying to join the EU, but IMHO the EU can't lower the bar because of emo-politics.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2010
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:57 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Well, that's one way to keep the Russian Air Force from targeting your HIMARs. Launch them at night.

https://youtu.be/d4bimCIcpH4

bt


Unfortunatel, those few units won't make a big difference against a huge number of Russian artillery
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:00 pm

marcelh wrote:
I'm nog against Ukraine trying to join the EU, but IMHO the EU can't lower the bar because of emo-politics.


I agree. The principal of laws must be upheld, even during times of war whether its election laws or economic laws.

However as in wars, things can be accelerated giving sufficient urgency. Ukraine should meet the appropriate requirements to be admitted to the EU. But I don't see any problem with accelerating the schedule by reducing red tape.

They have adapted business over the last 2 years to the COVID pandemic. So unless the politics mucks up the work, they should be able accelerate the mechanics of the membership evaluation.

bt

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