I found it interesting that the G7 leaders publicly made fun of Putin in their opening meeting.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/g7-makes-laug ... 23929.html

That general must be very good at defensive warfare though. Put him in the middle of a road, and none can pass.

johns624 wrote:

I found it interesting that the G7 leaders publicly made fun of Putin in their opening meeting.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/g7-makes-laug ... 23929.html

Leave it to British humor. The "Bare chested horse back riding" comment might not go down well in the US, I understand topless is more acceptable in Europe.

As for Biden staying out of it, wise move, considering his recent bike dismount incident (been there, done that, more than once)

bt

art wrote:

Ukraine war: Russian missile strike on shopping centre with over 1,000 people inside in city of Kremenchuk, Zelenskyy says
At least 10 people were killed and 40 were injured in the attack, according to Dmytro Lunin, the governor of the Poltava region.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12641299

Was it targeted?

What do you think? This is just the latest of many similar of no obvious military use, usually stepped up when meetings like the current G7 is underway, a mix of the real agenda of eradication of Ukrainian industries, culture, political institutions etc, with added spite at now being excluded from such meetings.
Plus the limited stock of actual precision weapons, older much less accurate will do.

johns624 wrote:

I found it interesting that the G7 leaders publicly made fun of Putin in their opening meeting.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/g7-makes-laug ... 23929.html

Especially Boris Johnson is like a five years old and Justin Trudeau is not any better. First of all you don't do that in diplomacy. Secondly that is an open challenge against Russia. They should know better or are they really that stupid? Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots. Thank you Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau.

THS214 wrote:

They should know better or are they really that stupid? Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots.

Sheesh. They were at lunch. Even if it's a working lunch, some levity is allowed.

What happened today? Did Russia send in more missiles to hit Ukrainian civilian targets? I thought that was retaliation/frustration at the Ukrainian shooting off HIMARS for the first time.

Only beef I have with their "old boys club" atitude was the presence of a lady. But if she can handle a bunch of juvenile boys, then it's her prerogative to put them in their place.

No one should care if Putin might take offense to a bunch of words. We all have seen he doesn't care what the West say, only what they do. And he would bomb the cr*p out of Ukraine whether those words were spoken or not.

Reverence are only given to the deserving.

bt

THS214 wrote:

Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots. Thank you Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau.

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

petertenthije wrote:

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

Right after Ukrainian hit some depot in Russia with a drone?

Or after the HIMARS hit a military headquarter?

I'm just waiting for the next round of missile against Odessa now that more videos of the latest Snake Island track are circulating.

bt

petertenthije wrote:

THS214 wrote:

Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots. Thank you Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau.

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

THS214 wrote:

Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots. Thank you Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau.

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

bikerthai wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

Right after Ukrainian hit some depot in Russia with a drone?

Or after the HIMARS hit a military headquarter?

I'm just waiting for the next round of missile against Odessa now that more videos of the latest Snake Island track are circulating.

bt

Oh, please. Tell us what was the reason Russians shot those missiles some 200 km from the fight to a town that at the moment has no strategic sense? There must be a reason. Russians don't shoot their missiles randomly like that. Just like the missiles to Kiev when G7 had a meeting. It had a meaning. To shoot those missiles don't take long preparation. I've written before that Russian missiles are good. They can do an operation like that and fast. Reason they don't use their best missiles all the time is that they don't have an unlimited amount of them and in the front line artillery do the job.

THS214 wrote:

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking.

But I think we do. This way of thinking is how most bullies act. They can't beat up on the strong when they get frustrated, so they beat up on the weak. Of course they would beat up on the weak at a drop of a hat, so walking on egg shell around them is useless.

This analogy is evolving as the "weak" Ukraine is going to the gym and is fighting back. It will have to take a few more beating before victory in the final match. Recommend watching Karate Kid (the original movie).

bt

johns624 wrote:

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

Read my post couple of days ago about information war in this war? Post number 6324. Read it and you understand why it doesn't matter for Putin. I doubt that west will throw a new challenge against Putin so he won't be seen weaker. Look how Biden has dealt this war and you see a perfect approach. Johnson and Trudeau should learn from him.

bikerthai wrote:

THS214 wrote:

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking.

But I think we do. This way of thinking is how most bullies act. They can't beat up on the strong when they get frustrated, so they beat up on the weak. Of course they would beat up on the weak at a drop of a hat, so walking on egg shell around them is useless.

This analogy is evolving as the "weak" Ukraine is going to the gym and is fighting back. It will have to take a few more beating before victory in the final match. Recommend watching Karate Kid (the original movie).

bt

This post shows that you don't. That is a horrible example. Countries and cultures don't work like that. You can only see how west thinks but not how others think and you don't even care. And you clearly don't read what others write or can't accept that you are wrong. Looks like you are trolling so will not answer to you anymore.

Braybuddy wrote:

This looks pretty horrific. How is Moscow going to spin this at home? If not this, what exactly does Putin have to do for the West to get serious about this war:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndepend ... 9792197632

The heroic Russian peacekeepers were defending themselves against terrorists using a shopping centre for cover? (see, even I can do spin like the Russians do).

When will Russian shopping malls start getting blown up as well. Something must be done to stop Russia doing this - too much hand-wringing and appeasement.

Hey am I the only one who thinks Russian General Pavel (back from retirement) looks like Fat Bastard from "The Spy who Shagged Me"?

THS214 wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

THS214 wrote:

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking.

But I think we do. This way of thinking is how most bullies act. They can't beat up on the strong when they get frustrated, so they beat up on the weak. Of course they would beat up on the weak at a drop of a hat, so walking on egg shell around them is useless.

This analogy is evolving as the "weak" Ukraine is going to the gym and is fighting back. It will have to take a few more beating before victory in the final match. Recommend watching Karate Kid (the original movie).

bt

This post shows that you don't. That is a horrible example. Countries and cultures don't work like that. You can only see how west thinks but not how others think and you don't even care. And you clearly don't read what others write or can't accept that you are wrong. Looks like you are trolling so will not answer to you anymore.

That's a statement. I , European , have lived in Russia for about four years including marriage and have seen almost every city with over a million inhabitants and can say here after almost ! the whole world know nothing is more primitive than Russia. So where is "bikerthai" wrong ?

oldJoe wrote:

So where is "bikerthai" wrong ?

I think where I went wrong is attributing the "Bully" moniker to the whole of Russia when I should be limiting it to Putin.

After all, the insulting comment from Boris was not pointed at Russia but at Putin.

True, I do not know the mental state of the whole of Russia. But pretty sure Putin is acting like a bully.

As for the opinion that Ukraine will suffer further before it can win, and it doesn't matter what any one of us say, even a high ranking politician, not sure if that is off the mark.

bt

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

art wrote:

Ukraine war: Russian missile strike on shopping centre with over 1,000 people inside in city of Kremenchuk, Zelenskyy says
At least 10 people were killed and 40 were injured in the attack, according to Dmytro Lunin, the governor of the Poltava region.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12641299

Was it targeted?

What do you think? This is just the latest of many similar of no obvious military use, usually stepped up when meetings like the current G7 is underway, a mix of the real agenda of eradication of Ukrainian industries, culture, political institutions etc, with added spite at now being excluded from such meetings.
Plus the limited stock of actual precision weapons, older much less accurate will do.

I don't know if the shopping mall was deliberately targeted. The reason I posted in the news thread was because if it was targeted it would mean to me that Russia has embarked on a strategy of attacking buildings in which concentrations of civilians are likely to be found. Attacks of this nature are likely to result in a large number of civilian casualties. One purpose of such attacks may be to attempt to weaken the resolve of the civilian population to support the continuation of the war.

Deliberate terror strikes on civilians has been done by them in Chechnya, Syria, with diminished numbers of modern precision weapons and no real tech industry to replace sanctions, older, inaccurate ones will suffice at a general built up area, not worth wasting what modern systems they have, even allowing the reported poor reliability of even these, so not impossible it was one of those that malfunctioned.
But they’ve done deliberate and murderous attacks from day one, from the air, artillery, mass shootings, traditional Russian military practice.

Well, we knew this when the war started.

The Ukraine Situation Report: Cross-Border Sabotage Raids And CIA Operatives In Kyiv

"Over the weekend, The New York Times reported that “some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.”

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1470285&start=6350

art wrote:

One purpose of such attacks may be to attempt to weaken the resolve of the civilian population to support the continuation of the war.

Probably the reason so many people in the West underestimated the Ukranians' resolve to fight is that they know exactly what awaits them if Russia wins. This is not a "normal" war where two nations fight over territory. Ukranians know this invasion is an existential threat. If Putin were to win, Ukraine would cease to exist and its language, culture and history erased. As is happening already, Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territory would be forcibly removed and dispersed to far-flung areas of Russia for 're-education'. Males of a certain age would probably be killed, and women would sent to camps where they would most likely be abused and raped. Young children would be farmed-out to families for 'Russification".

Ukrainians have no good options in this war. Even winning will cost them dearly, but that would pale into insignificance compared to the conequences of losing.

GDB wrote:

marcelh wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

Maybe this is the response.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/26/politics ... index.html

I was waiting for this to happen.

Dream on. The US won’t allow Ukraine to attack targets on Russian soil with US provided weapons. That’s definately a red line Ukraine has to accept.

The US (and France) have provided weapons already that can do just that, what’s the range of a modern 155mm gun and ammo? MLRS and HIMARS can too, it just depends where they are deployed, right now they are being deployed where they are most needed which does not mean stray rounds or rockets even hitting Russian territory, that can change as the nature of the war goes, again.

NATO members have already donated at least spares for Soviet era systems the Ukrainians have used on targets across the border, from tactical ballistic rockets to Mi-24 helicopters.
In fact any reasonably modern 155mm gun system can, in the right place.
And once in Ukrainian hands they are out of the control of NATO or other donators.

So there is likely an amount of political lip service going on here, maybe to keep some members with a shakier grasp of what fundamentally is at stake here from going all wobbly in the vain hope of a quiet life, how’s that worked with Putin so far? It’s brought us here and misery on the Ukrainians.
While I agree on being cautious to avoid a NATO-Russia conflict, because they would lose badly and be nuclear bad losers as per history, habit and now military doctrine, ‘if there is no Russia, how can there be a world’? (V. Putin, 2022), if Putin thinks he has ‘won’ in even the most limited sense, despite his military losses and exposure of deep flaws, he will feel emboldened.

The Ukrainians are not giving way, Putin is banking on Western weakness, to limit or stop supporting Ukraine.
If this happens, who knows what he’ll try next, the massacres, kidnappings, mass rape, mass destruction, mass thievery including of food, actually damaging the site at Chernobyl, I would suggest an emboldened Putin would make the threat of a NATO-Russian conflict much more likely, with all the dangers, including the ultimate one.

From the horse’s mouth:
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3506032-biden-rules-out-sending-ukraine-rockets-that-can-strike-into-russia/

So nothing to do with ”So there is likely an amount of political lip service going on here, maybe to keep some members with a shakier grasp of what fundamentally is at stake here from going all wobbly in the vain hope of a quiet life, how’s that worked with Putin so far? It’s brought us here and misery on the Ukrainians.”

johns624 wrote:

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

cpd wrote:

Braybuddy wrote:

This looks pretty horrific. How is Moscow going to spin this at home? If not this, what exactly does Putin have to do for the West to get serious about this war:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndepend ... 9792197632

The heroic Russian peacekeepers were defending themselves against terrorists using a shopping centre for cover? (see, even I can do spin like the Russians do).

When will Russian shopping malls start getting blown up as well. Something must be done to stop Russia doing this - too much hand-wringing and appeasement.

This may help:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3538064-us-preparing-to-send-advanced-air-defense-system-to-ukraine/amp/

marcelh wrote:

GDB wrote:

marcelh wrote:

Dream on. The US won’t allow Ukraine to attack targets on Russian soil with US provided weapons. That’s definately a red line Ukraine has to accept.

The US (and France) have provided weapons already that can do just that, what’s the range of a modern 155mm gun and ammo? MLRS and HIMARS can too, it just depends where they are deployed, right now they are being deployed where they are most needed which does not mean stray rounds or rockets even hitting Russian territory, that can change as the nature of the war goes, again.

NATO members have already donated at least spares for Soviet era systems the Ukrainians have used on targets across the border, from tactical ballistic rockets to Mi-24 helicopters.
In fact any reasonably modern 155mm gun system can, in the right place.
And once in Ukrainian hands they are out of the control of NATO or other donators.

So there is likely an amount of political lip service going on here, maybe to keep some members with a shakier grasp of what fundamentally is at stake here from going all wobbly in the vain hope of a quiet life, how’s that worked with Putin so far? It’s brought us here and misery on the Ukrainians.
While I agree on being cautious to avoid a NATO-Russia conflict, because they would lose badly and be nuclear bad losers as per history, habit and now military doctrine, ‘if there is no Russia, how can there be a world’? (V. Putin, 2022), if Putin thinks he has ‘won’ in even the most limited sense, despite his military losses and exposure of deep flaws, he will feel emboldened.

The Ukrainians are not giving way, Putin is banking on Western weakness, to limit or stop supporting Ukraine.
If this happens, who knows what he’ll try next, the massacres, kidnappings, mass rape, mass destruction, mass thievery including of food, actually damaging the site at Chernobyl, I would suggest an emboldened Putin would make the threat of a NATO-Russian conflict much more likely, with all the dangers, including the ultimate one.

From the horse’s mouth:
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3506032-biden-rules-out-sending-ukraine-rockets-that-can-strike-into-russia/

So nothing to do with ”So there is likely an amount of political lip service going on here, maybe to keep some members with a shakier grasp of what fundamentally is at stake here from going all wobbly in the vain hope of a quiet life, how’s that worked with Putin so far? It’s brought us here and misery on the Ukrainians.”

No, there are THREE (got that?) distinct munitions compatible with both MLRS and HIMARS, the standard ones with 12 rockets, in two groups of six, or two much larger, longer ranged rockets in the same modules, in two different versions, one presumably much newer and a lot more range than even the ATACMS.
Here’s the thing, most MLRS users, which included many NATO members, only ever adopted the 12 rocket configuration, this included the so far two donor MLRS nations the UK and Germany, in fact it’s likely only the US uses this munition.
This was discussed when sending MLRS and HIMARS was planned, I linked the systems at the time, do it yourself if you needed to see it again, I also did not expect these ATACMS (range 103-186 miles), or the Precision Strike Missile (up to 310 miles) to be made available then and they haven’t been.

From a battlefield perspective the standard 12 rocket fitment is far more useful to the Ukrainians, (range up to 44 miles), those two NATO members who have trained the Ukrainians on MLRS only have experience (in the UK’s case in combat starting in Operation Desert Storm), on the standard munitions.
Which have, depending where you place the vehicle, border crossing range anyway. As in up to 43 miles.

But the ACTAMs could be viewed as escalatory with less actual battlefield use, yes it would be richly deserved if this was sent to Ukraine, to hit Engels airbase, the main hub for the bombers lobbing some of those crude old missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets, (also the main base for those Russian bombers that for years now have been flying into dense international airspace transponders off), with MH17 they are already culpable for one recent major air disaster.
But though a minor part of the Russian nuclear triad, Engels will be viewed by the US as off limits, for what at least seems to me, obvious reasons.
If it’s not obvious to you, well I cannot help that, not the first time it’s been discussed.

You did not quote my final sentence, concerning the only possible window for Putin to be removed internally, an obvious very high casualty military debacle.
Being forced to admit the ‘Special Military Operation’ is BS by having to finally mobilize would also be, despite his grip on power, highly risky for Putin.
Put crudely, kill and injure enough Russians (as Perun’s last video shows they have already lost many of their ‘proxies’ and extending the reserve call up to age 60 with 7 days refresher training does not look too strong, even that, for them, at least so far is preferable to a mobilization, what does that tell you?), this by itself will pressure those around Putin.
Plus they have seen his purging of FSB for telling him what he wanted to hear about Ukraine, the turnover by dismissal and combat death of senior commanders.

The new head of the British Army has warned we, that is Europe and the West in general, is at a ‘1937 moment’.
What was going on then, well Hitler and Mussolini were being enabled by inaction from the UK and France, to install a Facist in Spain, look how emboldened those two turned out, here a new PM, Chamberlain. I know what most think when they see that name. But as Chancellor he had, the previous year, against the always recalcitrant Treasury, pushed through the start of serious rearmament, which as PM he doubled down on.

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

THS214 wrote:

Look what happened today. There's the answer for those idiots. Thank you Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau.

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

So you think Putin established a last-minute strike on a civilian structure because he took offense of a comment instead of, say, the multiple ammunition stockpiles or Russian soldiers in Snake Island getting blown up by Western-supplied weapons systems?

That's a bold statement, to say the least.

marcelh wrote:

This may help:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3538 ... raine/amp/

Yes I do recall the reason for not sending the 300 km rockets. Thus my statement of strategic vs tactical.

My question was more nuanced. Does the US specifically restrict any attack on Russian soil using any system that was provided. Example, from Kharkiv they can hit targets in Russia using the MRLS they have now or the rocket assisted 155 mm shells?

The US has already hinted that they have no problem with the weapons hitting targets in Crimea. It is apparently a significant distinction for Biden, but would it be for Putin?

Note also that the Biden comment about 300 km missiles was before Russian announcing that they are sending balistic missiles to Belarus (and potential nukes). So the so called red line is like any other ted line. It can be moved as situation arise.


bt

JJJ wrote:

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

So you think Putin established a last-minute strike on a civilian structure because he took offense of a comment instead of, say, the multiple ammunition stockpiles or Russian soldiers in Snake Island getting blown up by Western-supplied weapons systems?

That's a bold statement, to say the least.

Russia has proved accuracy isn't part of their vocabulary so who knows what was targeted ? Either way they don't care about civilians and never have, in any war.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... html%3famp

There is lots of behind the scene unknowns to this headline.

Is Zelensky confident enough of the up coming offensive to think he will be in a position of strength by end of 2022?


This video lays out what Ukraine believes needs to be done by end of year for grain export. Open up Odessa and Mykolaiv.

https://youtu.be/lX_rbSojgh8

At the begining of the war, I was concerned that all of Ukraine's crops would be lost. Now the problem is getting the grain out. I can see how Odessa can be opened up under current condition. Opening up Mykolaiv would be more difficult with out a cease fire or taking the land mass south of Kherson.

bt

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

THS214 wrote:

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

johns624 wrote:

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

And my point is, what it it is true? Should it discourage more jokes on Putin? It would be the same as stopping HIMARs shipment because Putin hit the shopping mall because the HIMARs killed a bunch of Russian officers.

No need to tip toe around Putin's ego. He will find an excuse to launch the missiles anyway.

The pattern (as proposed by analysts - not here on a-net) was the missiles launched was because of the G7 meeting similar to other high profile meetings in the past (example: UN visit to Ukraine).

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022 ... -near-kyiv

This is more logical to me.

bt

JJJ wrote:

THS214 wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

Yeah, sure, it’s because Boris and Justin made fun of Vlad that a shopping mall was bombed.

This strike would have happened regardless. Was probably planned days ago.

So, don’t thank Boris and Justin, thank that little piece of excrement in Moscow.

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

So you think Putin established a last-minute strike on a civilian structure because he took offense of a comment instead of, say, the multiple ammunition stockpiles or Russian soldiers in Snake Island getting blown up by Western-supplied weapons systems?

That's a bold statement, to say the least.

It's not if Putin took it personally. If Putin is not reacting he is seen weak in Russia. That is not an alternative to him.

Please explain why Russians fired missiles 200 km from the front to a shopping center where it makes no strategical sense? Those missiles were fired there on purpose. There was a reason for it and it doesn't give anything to conversation if you argue that I'm wrong without saying anything why it happened.

You make the mistake of confusing what is part of a war and and what Russia considers as an attack against their president i.a. against the country. A big difference.

johns624 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

If that question in to me then of course I don't know for sure. Though usually 1+1=2. First the fun making, then the attack strategically in the middle of nowhere. That was not random shooting and it was aimed where it hit. You have other explanation? War puts emotions for many ahead of objective thinking. It's easy to disagree but should one have an alternative scenario of what happened and especially why? Otherwise disagreeing is not reasoned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/maxseddon/st ... 1157555202

Russia offers a solution that could end the conflict today. I don't think Ukraine will accept this proposal.

bikerthai wrote:

johns624 wrote:

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

And my point is, what it it is true? Should it discourage more jokes on Putin? It would be the same as stopping HIMARs shipment because Putin hit the shopping mall because the HIMARs killed a bunch of Russian officers.

No need to tip toe around Putin's ego. He will find an excuse to launch the missiles anyway.

The pattern (as proposed by analysts - not here on a-net) was the missiles launched was because of the G7 meeting similar to other high profile meetings in the past (example: UN visit to Ukraine).

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022 ... -near-kyiv

This is more logical to me.

bt

You are talking about missile attack against Kiev. That was a message to G7 that Russia can hit with missiles to Kiev. "Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, said Russia's airstrikes were a direct message to the leaders at the summit." https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/11076886 ... rikes-kyiv

Missile strike against shopping center is a different missile attack.

marcelh wrote:

Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

The population argument is hollow as from what I see in the news, the Chinese population is pro Russia and the Indian population is ambivalent/neutral.

Unless the rest of the remaining countries are willing to send their population to fight for Ukraine, then it is as relevant as the UN in this conflict.

The West may be a minority in population support, but is the overwhelming majority in financial and military support. And that is what Putin is worried second most behind the will of the Ukrainian to fight.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/zelensky-g7-ukraine-war-2022-b2110212.html%3famp

There is lots of behind the scene unknowns to this headline.

Is Zelensky confident enough of the up coming offensive to think he will be in a position of strength by end of 2022?


This video lays out what Ukraine believes needs to be done by end of year for grain export. Open up Odessa and Mykolaiv.

https://youtu.be/lX_rbSojgh8

At the begining of the war, I was concerned that all of Ukraine's crops would be lost. Now the problem is getting the grain out. I can see how Odessa can be opened up under current condition. Opening up Mykolaiv would be more difficult with out a cease fire or taking the land mass south of Kherson.

bt

Its clear that they need deep sea ports, also for the long term food supply of the world. They produce 10% less this year then the 80 million ton that they have been producing normally, but are only transporting 20-25 million tons via the current infrastructure which is at full capacity. They really need deep ports of Odessa.

The question is how can they create a corridor for grain ships from Odessa. Ukraine can impossibly do it on its own. They don't have a navy, no possibility of air patrol with the S400's from the Crimea peninsula and Harpoon's and AA's from Snake Island can't be sufficient to guard the ships.

I believe Turkey needs to be pushed by Nato/EU/US/G7 into the role of guardian of grain in the black sea as they have a somewhat neutral position in this war and have enough capacity and capabilities (Naval and Airborne) to offer this service...

JonesNL wrote:

They don't have a navy, no possibility of air patrol with the S400's from the Crimea peninsula and Harpoon's and AA's from Snake Island can't be sufficient to guard the ships.

A less optimal solution is to barge the grain to Romania and directly transfer the grain to ocean going ship.

This is a form of attrition war where losing a barge to a missile is not as damaging as losing a grain ship.

You can hug the coast with barges and stay under the protection of the Harpoons.

Of course, finding sufficient quantities of these barges is a problem to be solved.

https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2022/0 ... -invasion/

bt

johns624 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

If that's the case, then Putin just made himself look even weaker in the eyes of the (western) world.

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

Did I say that? No. Just another attempt by you to frame my post.

THS214 wrote:

Missile strike against shopping center is a different missile attack.

Valid point. But then why did the Russian give the excuse that they were targeting something near by? Too much of a logical exercise for me to wrap my head around

bt

THS214 wrote:

johns624 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

If that question in to me then of course I don't know for sure.

No, it was directed at the gentleman from the Netherlands.

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

The people who got killed/injured and their families may have another opinion. And do you really think Putin does care about what the world is thinking? Looking at the population of all countries, those who are supporting Ukraine/the West is a minority.

So you know that those rockets were launched at the shopping mall because Trudeau and Johnson made fun of Putin?

Did I say that? No. Just another attempt by you to frame my post.

Yes, you just said it. If not, what "people who got killed/injured and their families" would you be talking about.

THS214 wrote:

JJJ wrote:

THS214 wrote:

You clearly don't understand the Russian way of thinking. That was a clear challenge against them and they showed that by retaliating. Otherwise Putin would be seen weak and that was not a choice for him. Those two idiots should have known better but they didn't care.

I'm not defending what Russia did but the moment those news come out from G7 it was clear that something like this will happen.

So you think Putin established a last-minute strike on a civilian structure because he took offense of a comment instead of, say, the multiple ammunition stockpiles or Russian soldiers in Snake Island getting blown up by Western-supplied weapons systems?

That's a bold statement, to say the least.

It's not if Putin took it personally. If Putin is not reacting he is seen weak in Russia. That is not an alternative to him.

Please explain why Russians fired missiles 200 km from the front to a shopping center where it makes no strategical sense? Those missiles were fired there on purpose. There was a reason for it and it doesn't give anything to conversation if you argue that I'm wrong without saying anything why it happened.

You make the mistake of confusing what is part of a war and and what Russia considers as an attack against their president i.a. against the country. A big difference.

Easy: they missed, malfunctioned or relied on bad intelligence.

Russia have tight controls on foreign news coming for the common Russian citizen. Everything about foreign news they show up in their news is carefully filtered and curated. An offhand joke barely registers.

JonesNL wrote:

S400's from the Crimea peninsula

This is where the importance if the land mass south of Kherson comes in to play. If Ukraine can retake that territory, then half of Crimea will be in range if HIMARs.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

They don't have a navy, no possibility of air patrol with the S400's from the Crimea peninsula and Harpoon's and AA's from Snake Island can't be sufficient to guard the ships.

A less optimal solution is to barge the grain to Romania and directly transfer the grain to ocean going ship.

This is a form of attrition war where losing a barge to a missile is not as damaging as losing a grain ship.

You can hug the coast with barges and stay under the protection of the Harpoons.

Of course, finding sufficient quantities of these barges is a problem to be solved.

https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2022/0 ... -invasion/

bt

I don't think they offer enough capacity, otherwise they would already been utilized. They are throwing everything at this problem as it imposes a great risk for future crops. With the current status the stocks will be full for the demand of next 2 years, as such farmers might decide to skip a year to prevent wasting the harvest and not getting paid enough due to oversupply. In the long term it might even permanently kill the supply side of the equation.
Countries of the world really need to step up to make the grain corridor in the Black sea happen...

bikerthai wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

S400's from the Crimea peninsula

This is where the importance if the land mass south of Kherson comes in to play. If Ukraine can retake that territory, then half of Crimea will be in range if HIMARs.

br

That would make sense and could strategically work to at least suppress any S400 or other AA battery. But it would put the HIMARs at risk as well. Let's hope there is a quick solution or the rest of the world will destabilise as well due to food shortages...

JonesNL wrote:

I don't think they offer enough capacity, otherwise they would already been utilized.

Can't use now as infrastructure is not in place.

Getting some temporary infrastructure to Romania should not be an issue.

De-mining a corridor to/from Odessa should be doable.

Harder step would be to re-take Snake Island.

But you may be right, the hardest step would be getting enough barge capacity. They have 6 months to work out the details.

Best case scenario, war is suspended. If not, then they can at least get limited capacity out of Odessa.

It is not a zero sum gain.

bt

JonesNL wrote:

But it would put the HIMARs at risk as well. Let's hope there is a quick solution or the rest of the world will destabilise as well due to food shortages...

True about the HIMARs, M777 with Excalibur may suffice.

Even me being optimistic, I do not see a quick solution. Unless the war ends today, it will be a grind to get capacity. But every little bit helps.

Silver lining? Odessa and Mykolaiv is spared from mass destruction.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

THS214 wrote:

Missile strike against shopping center is a different missile attack.

Valid point. But then why did the Russian give the excuse that they were targeting something near by? Too much of a logical exercise for me to wrap my head around

bt

That is Russian modus operandi. Their excuses are well know of not being truthful. Should not read to much into it.