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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:19 pm

T4thH wrote:
OK, how Ukrainian forces are overrunning Russian units in the small villages:
Rush with Humvees...


Oh yikes. And when get close enough, dismount infantry and engage in close quarters.

bt
 
JonesNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

Latest Google Map showing the salient in pushing up the P07 highway and are a stone throw away from the town. Google Map is usually slow so who knows where they are now? Even if they stop for an operational pause now, they have that town under artilery control for sure.

Now if they take out a couple of those bridges, Izyum would be a mini Kerson. :scratchchin:

bt

OK, how Ukrainian forces are overrunning Russian units in the small villages:
Rush with Humvees...
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/x920m4/ukrainian_humvees_storming_a_russianoccupied/

Progress in Charkov.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/8/2121532/-Ukraine-update-Balakliya-and-Shevchenkove-liberated-on-the-incredible-drive-to-Kupyansk

The Ukrainian army is just far too fast for them. What Russia has tried on the long run to Kiev and has miserably failed, the Ukrainian army is doing it here.
Pretty sure the Russian command has completely lost the control here, are they already moving figures of units over the map, which are not anymore existing? Are they already surprised, why some units are not answering any more? Are they playing Hitler in the Bunker asking for Steiner? No, Steiner will not come.

This remembers "desert storm", where the Iraqi army was waiting for the coalition army, expecting they will drive and attack on the streets....No, they are attacking along the streets, encircle your position and coming from the back.
https://twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/status/1567872884671913984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1567872884671913984%7Ctwgr%5E3990a53fb8554d09ae894edf99fcf47daa636bfb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fx936if%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse

Sorry Russia.
You have not understood, what modern warfare is. And you have now not anymore the time, to learn it, they are far to fast for you. You are still in the 80th...no, it is now the year 2022. And the Japanese army in Malaysia and the German army in WW2 or even the German army in 1870 and WWI (begin of) have shown how to do it. You have had more than enough time to learn it.

I'm amazed how Ukraine has advanced 50km. By getting behind units and cutting them off, it takes very high morale units to hold out.

This is warfare faster than the enemy can react. If Ukraine keeps pulling this off, they could have the front collapse at multiple points. It might not. Either way, at this point Russia can only react.

This is when air power is supposed to restore initiative. Where is the Russian air force?
Link on advance distance:

https://news.yahoo.com/armed-forces-ukr ... 17204.html

Lightsaber


I am really surprised at the speed and expansion of the counter attack:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 21093&z=10

The supply lines to Izyum are running through Kupiansk. At this speed Izyum will be cut off from supplies in 2-3 days.

Does Ukraine have further resources to keep feeding this counter offensive and fill in the flanks of the deep penetration?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:29 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Vintage wrote:
. If they continue on another 20 miles to Kupiansk,


Latest Google Map showing the salient in pushing up the P07 highway and are a stone throw away from the town. Google Map is usually slow so who knows where they are now? Even if they stop for an operational pause now, they have that town under artilery control for sure.

Now if they take out a couple of those bridges, Izyum would be a mini Kerson.

All they have to do is cut P07 anywhere south of Kupiansk and the whole area becomes an island, I would bet money that the bridge at Horokhovatka is already down. And I also bet all Russia's pontoons are down south.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:33 pm

Some St Petersburg officials want Putin charged with high treason. Will they commit suicide or just disappear?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ru ... 5050b91f7d
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:34 pm

johns624 wrote:
Some St Petersburg officials want Putin charged with high treason. Will they commit suicide or just disappear?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ru ... 5050b91f7d


They'll need to keep their windows locked.
 
marcelh
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:36 pm

johns624 wrote:
Some St Petersburg officials want Putin charged with high treason. Will they commit suicide or just disappear?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ru ... 5050b91f7d

They either very brave or extremely stupid. Time will tell…
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:37 pm

JonesNL wrote:
At this speed Izyum will be cut off from supplies in 2-3 days.

I bet that that Izyum is already cut off.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:44 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Does Ukraine have further resources to keep feeding this counter offensive and fill in the flanks of the deep penetration?


Arm chair general here. Looks like the northern flank of the bulge is well protected by some water features. Don't need a large force to cover that approach.

Agree that they can probably devote much of the forces sweeping south to clear out Izyum.

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:51 pm

Vintage wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
At this speed Izyum will be cut off from supplies in 2-3 days.

I bet that that Izyum is already cut off.


Pretty sure, it is already or will be in few hours. I expect to see a nice picture of Ukraine soldiers washing all the dust from their feet at a big river....If the Russian army already knows it is a good question. Or if they are informed, the officers will believe it? "Can not be, it is impossible," and send out the next convoy?
perhaps when some convoys will have not reached Izyum or vice versa, or some survivors have made it back....so in two or three days....

I say, the Russian HQ has completely lost the overview in Charkov now, if there someone of the HQ is alive and not got a visit of a HIMARS/MARS II warhead right at the start of this "counter-offensive".

Just for your information, I have seen a nice picture of a destroyed building in Kupiansk. It is said, this was the HQ for Charkov. It got hit right at the begin of... I think you are all aware, what I wanted to say.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:53 pm

marcelh wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Some St Petersburg officials want Putin charged with high treason. Will they commit suicide or just disappear?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ru ... 5050b91f7d

They either very brave or extremely stupid. Time will tell…
Well it did all start in St Petersburg for Poutine so perhaps it'll end there.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:14 pm

bikerthai wrote:
the northern flank of the bulge is well protected by some water features

That's the Velykyi Burluk River, and it is a perfect moat to have on the left flank of the advance.

Edit:
I see no reason to engage in street fighting in Kupiansk. About three and a half miles south of Kupiansk there is some high ground and a rail line that is double tracked all the way to Kharkiv. That would be a perfect place to set up some artillery.
Last edited by Vintage on Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:21 pm

T4thH wrote:
It is said, this was the HQ for Charkov. It got hit right at the begin of.


Vintage wrote:
That's the Velykyi Burluk River, and it is a perfect moat to have on the left flank of the advance.


The level of details that went into planning this offensive must have been astounding.

Recall way back when Zelinsky was announcing that the priority is to liberate the south? The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:30 pm

bikerthai wrote:
The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.



Heh heh, they didn't fool me.

5 days ago: post 7671:
Vintage wrote:
My bet is on Izyum. Push them back to the other side of the river along a 140 mile long stretch. And then continue in Kherson.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:30 pm

Does anyone have an idea on if or how much the rumored North Korean arms supplies will help the Russians?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 19838817b9

I can't imagine it will help much with the current situation Russia is facing. You needs soldiers and effective combat units to utilizes weapons.

I could see Russia using them maybe later for prolonged bombardments along the border regions. But even that doesn't seem like it would be effective in any meaningful way beyond just "we will continue to hurt you". I can't the arms helping stop Russia from losing the ground they occupied.

Tugg
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:34 pm

bikerthai wrote:
....

Recall way back when Zelinsky was announcing that the priority is to liberate the south? The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.

bt


Fella's gotta earn his keep, eh? :)

If him saying something saves Ukrainian lives and helps liberate Ukrainian territories... then the day wasn't spent for nought, right?
Even if it's a bunch of "questionable facts" to deceive the enemy
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:34 pm

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have an idea on if or how much the rumored North Korean arms supplies will help the Russians?

It will save them from running out of 152mm artillery ammo and guns.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:54 pm

Vintage wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have an idea on if or how much the rumored North Korean arms supplies will help the Russians?

It will save them from running out of 152mm artillery ammo and guns.


There was a Twitter debate on the nature of these shells and rockets. How long ago were they manufactured? If they were in storage along time, supposedly their fuse would degrade and the result would be either premature detonation or a complete dud.

I mean at the begining of the conflict everyone is saying Russia has tons of artilery shells in storage and would never run out. Well then, why are they buying from N Korea? Maybe because their stored shells are pretty much a liability?

The other aspect of the buy is are we expecting munitions trains from the Far East starting for get "Major Malfunctions"?

bt
Last edited by bikerthai on Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:57 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
....

Recall way back when Zelinsky was announcing that the priority is to liberate the south? The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.

bt


Fella's gotta earn his keep, eh? :)

If him saying something saves Ukrainian lives and helps liberate Ukrainian territories... then the day wasn't spent for nought, right?
Even if it's a bunch of "questionable facts" to deceive the enemy



Gotta say, you have to respect a leader that is part of the war plan. Putin is lying and being lied to by bootlickers
Zelinsky and his generals are on the same page.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:01 pm

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have an idea on if or how much the rumored North Korean arms supplies will help the Russians?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 19838817b9

I can't imagine it will help much with the current situation Russia is facing. You needs soldiers and effective combat units to utilizes weapons.

I could see Russia using them maybe later for prolonged bombardments along the border regions. But even that doesn't seem like it would be effective in any meaningful way beyond just "we will continue to hurt you". I can't the arms helping stop Russia from losing the ground they occupied.

Tugg


Massive logistic issue, let's face it much will come by train, just as sanctions are hitting that sector.
Only a trickle by aircraft.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:06 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Vintage wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have an idea on if or how much the rumored North Korean arms supplies will help the Russians?

It will save them from running out of 152mm artillery ammo and guns.


There was a Twitter debate on the nature of these shells and rockets. How long ago were they manufactured? If they were in storage along time, supposedly their fuse would degrade and the result would be either premature detonation or a complete dud.

I mean at the begining of the conflict everyone is saying Russia has tons of artilery shells in storage and would never run out. Well then, why are they buying from N Korea? Maybe because their stored shells are pretty much a liability?

The other aspect of the buy is are we expecting munitions trains from rhe Far East starting for get "Major Malfunctions"?

bt


Poor shells and guns are in Russia. So maybe even marginally better preserved guns and shells from North Korea would be an improvement.
Which means that North Korea, it's weapons stocks, trains carrying the stuff to and via Russia -- are all legitimate targets.
All is left is to figure out how to blow it all up. Wherever.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:11 pm

Vintage wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.



Heh heh, they didn't fool me.

5 days ago: post 7671:
Vintage wrote:
My bet is on Izyum. Push them back to the other side of the river along a 140 mile long stretch. And then continue in Kherson.

I posted I hoped they could pull off two offenses. This is far better than my hopes. Russia has a major issue. They either stabilize around Kharkiv and soon, or else Ukraine will keep the operational initiative. Since Russia appears to be short of troops/equipment (and where is the Russian air force?), this level of losses will be unsustainable. Eventually they will have to pull units off Kherson and then accelerate the advance there.

The local ammo shortages in Ukraine, for the Russians, must be getting critical. The Russians face a huge logistical nightmare. As others noted, if a few of the trains with North Korean artillery ammo run into cigarette problems... The mighty arms exporter is now facing shortages? This just won't sell Russian kit after the conflict.

Also, what ever happened to the 100,000 North Korean troops to support Russia?

Lightsaber
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:17 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
So maybe even marginally better preserved guns and shells from North Korea would be an improvement.

We can be sure that Kim will send his date code expired stock. Russia may be getting back some shells they originally sold to Kim's grandfather.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Vintage wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
The amount of mis-direction being thrown out there makes my head spin.



Heh heh, they didn't fool me.

5 days ago: post 7671:
Vintage wrote:
My bet is on Izyum. Push them back to the other side of the river along a 140 mile long stretch. And then continue in Kherson.

I posted I hoped they could pull off two offenses. This is far better than my hopes. Russia has a major issue. They either stabilize around Kharkiv and soon, or else Ukraine will keep the operational initiative. Since Russia appears to be short of troops/equipment (and where is the Russian air force?), this level of losses will be unsustainable. Eventually they will have to pull units off Kherson and then accelerate the advance there.

The local ammo shortages in Ukraine, for the Russians, must be getting critical. The Russians face a huge logistical nightmare. As others noted, if a few of the trains with North Korean artillery ammo run into cigarette problems... The mighty arms exporter is now facing shortages? This just won't sell Russian kit after the conflict.

Also, what ever happened to the 100,000 North Korean troops to support Russia?

Lightsaber
Wasn't the 100000 soldiers changed to 100000 workers to rebuild the occupied territories?
 
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Tugger
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:35 pm

I am wondering if Ukraine will be able to successfully cut down to the coast to cut of Russia's land bridge route.


And regarding the North Korean provided arms I mentioned above, they are worthless (as is the NK troops BS) if unable to get to where they are needed to be.

Does Russia even understand logistics? The resupply chain seems nonfunctional to nonexistent.

“You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.”
– General Dwight D. Eisenhower, USA

(And there are tons of quotes on logistics and war of course, but what seems telling is that I cannot find any attributed to a Russian.)

Tugg
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:51 pm

The Ukrainian must have hit an operational pause on this initial thrust. Lots of videos coming out.

Here is another view of the Humvee bliz posted earlier.

https://youtu.be/ipiFzefwFdQ

All I can say is "Holy Firefight Batman!"

bt
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:57 pm

There are now some big changes, with the use of the Pzh2000.

First the important part...they have repainted them to a cool black.
OK we have now the black death. Why you are painting something balck? You want to move and fight in the middel of the night.


They are now using the Pzh2000 completely different.They are using them on a way, no other artillery system can do/can be used (OK, also the K2 black thunder), but less. Two Pzh2000 with guards moving through Charkow near the front line just behind own lines, getting data, stopping, shooting one round, getting data during flighttime of the shell, correcting, firing second round, driving further till data of next target got added to the board computer. And the same game again.

Pzh2000 is now playing in god-mode. Big daddy COBRA is there, doing the job.

OK, perhaps you will call me crazy. I say, the Ukrainian government has waited for one piece of equipmwnt to start the Charkow "counter" offensive. The COBRA system was delivered to Ukraine this weekend....I say, it is now in Charkow. And ist is doing the job.

Pth2000 in action. Tip, after 30 sec, the shell is still in the air. But they got already the data for the correction (from COBRA).
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/x8k44i/panzerhaubitze_2000_in_action/
Seems the same Pzh2000 team? on the move. On position 2 and 4 are the Pzh2000.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/x91rrb/ukrainian_vehicles_on_the_move/
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:14 pm

 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Google Map just updated. They bypassed Kupyansk and are aiming straight for that bridge to the south.

Continuation of the pattern of avoiding direct flight in build up area and out maneuver the enemy.

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:09 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Google Map just updated. They bypassed Kupyansk and are aiming straight for that bridge to the south.

Continuation of the pattern of avoiding direct flight in build up area and out maneuver the enemy. bt


I believe I have finally solved the mystery of the "Google Map" of the front line; I never knew what you were talking about.

I think you are referring to the Rondeli Foundation's map that they publish in KML form, and one of their people posts in Google Maps. You and I are seeing the same thing but I download the KML and put it in Google Earth and see a satellite picture with the Rondeli front lines superimposed (I only use the lines, I skip all the arrows etc). The Rondeli Foundation is from Georgia, they have a great interest in Russian shenanigans.
https://gfsis.org.ge/russian-monitor/military-digest
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:10 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Google Map just updated. They bypassed Kupyansk and are aiming straight for that bridge to the south.

Continuation of the pattern of avoiding direct flight in build up area and out maneuver the enemy.

bt

No, they have just taken Hrushivka. Now something around 5 km to Kupyansk. Hrushivka is a city, in the way to Kupyansk. To take a city, just slows you down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bai6/according_to_the_newest_reports_uaf_have/
As Ukrainian army is also fighting during night....
Perhaps firts units of the Ukrainan army will reach Kupyansk city during dawn?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:14 pm

T4thH wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Google Map just updated. They bypassed Kupyansk and are aiming straight for that bridge to the south.

Continuation of the pattern of avoiding direct flight in build up area and out maneuver the enemy.

bt

No, they have just taken Hrushivka. Now something around 5 km to Kupyansk. Hrushivka is a city, in the way to Kupyansk. To take a city, just slows you down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bai6/according_to_the_newest_reports_uaf_have/

I believe they have done both. They also have a probe headed SE from Hrushivka.

They were about four miles from Kruhlyakivka on the last Rondeli update.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:31 pm

I believe I have finally solved the mystery of the "Google Map" of the front line; I never knew what you were talking about.


Tried the Rondell site at the begining, but could not get the hang of it. So I stuck with Google Map knowing that it may be a day or two late.

Vintage wrote:
believe they have done both. They also have a probe headed SE from Hrushivka.


When you are facing light opposition, hard to keep the reigns on the leading elements. Just don't out run your logistics.

bt
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:40 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Just don't out run your logistics.

Their path of advance has been more or less along a main railroad line that connects to Kharkiv.
They are probably bringing SAM batteries along with everything else.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:18 pm

The Russians in Charkow have managed to drown three BMPs during crossing of a small river.
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them. Panic? Far too fast? Not taken enough time, to prepare the BMPs accordingly? So running away too fast in panic? Fear eats brain?
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bvy7/russian_troops_have_drown_3_bmps_while_fleeing/

They have captured 4x MSTA S today. this one seems to be just abandoned in good condition. Seems the Russians just run away. Sorry, as artillery, you are regular far enough behind own lines that you will be always able to finish of your own equipment. You shall have enough time, if you have to leave it behind. Set it on fire.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bn61/russian_2s19_msta_captured_by_ukrainian_forces/
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:36 pm

T4thH wrote:
The Russians in Charkow have managed to drown three BMPs during crossing of a small river.
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them. Panic? Far too fast? Not taken enough time, to prepare the BMPs accordingly? So running away too fast in panic? Fear eats brain?
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bvy7/russian_troops_have_drown_3_bmps_while_fleeing/

Insufficient training to actually do this preparation correctly could be another cause, or defective material which would not be a shock either.

They have captured 4x MSTA S today. this one seems to be just abandoned in good condition. Seems the Russians just run away. Sorry, as artillery, you are regular far enough behind own lines that you will be always able to finish of your own equipment. You shall have enough time, if you have to leave it behind. Set it on fire.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bn61/russian_2s19_msta_captured_by_ukrainian_forces/

Let's hope the ukrainians have matching ammunition.
 
T4thH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:51 pm

Klaus wrote:
T4thH wrote:
The Russians in Charkow have managed to drown three BMPs during crossing of a small river.
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them. Panic? Far too fast? Not taken enough time, to prepare the BMPs accordingly? So running away too fast in panic? Fear eats brain?
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bvy7/russian_troops_have_drown_3_bmps_while_fleeing/

Insufficient training to actually do this preparation correctly could be another cause, or defective material which would not be a shock either.

They have captured 4x MSTA S today. this one seems to be just abandoned in good condition. Seems the Russians just run away. Sorry, as artillery, you are regular far enough behind own lines that you will be always able to finish of your own equipment. You shall have enough time, if you have to leave it behind. Set it on fire.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/x9bn61/russian_2s19_msta_captured_by_ukrainian_forces/

Let's hope the ukrainians have matching ammunition.

Of course they have the ammunition. It is the regular 152 mm, still in use in some NATO countries and still in production in Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia... They have own MSTA A and MSTA S from soviet times.

According news, Ukrainian forces can wash their dirty feet and faces now in the Oskil river. They have now cut the occupied Charkow region west of the Oskil river in two pieces. (to be confirmed by some pictures or videos). If it is the case, we will get them soon.
Last edited by T4thH on Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4692
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:53 pm

T4thH wrote:
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them.

Looking at the footage, it seems their rear doors are open. Surely that can’t help their buoyancy. :D

To be fair though, they might have opened the doors to escape the sinking BMP. Whatever the case may be, scratch three BMPs!
 
tomcat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:56 pm

Vintage wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Vintage wrote:
. If they continue on another 20 miles to Kupiansk,


Latest Google Map showing the salient in pushing up the P07 highway and are a stone throw away from the town. Google Map is usually slow so who knows where they are now? Even if they stop for an operational pause now, they have that town under artilery control for sure.

Now if they take out a couple of those bridges, Izyum would be a mini Kerson.

All they have to do is cut P07 anywhere south of Kupiansk and the whole area becomes an island, I would bet money that the bridge at Horokhovatka is already down. And I also bet all Russia's pontoons are down south.


I don't think the roads are as important to support Russia's logistics as the railways. Kupiansk area is a very important railway node. It is connected (1) to the northwest to Belgorod (RU) via Vovchans'k and (2) to the northeast to Valuyki (RU) via Topoli, while just south of Kupiansk and just east of the Oskil river, the railway is branching out in 2 lines, one leading to Lyman, the other one to Sievierodonetsk. I would think that the main goal of this offensive is to cut those railways and Kupiansk is the best place to do it. Isolating the Izium pocket on the west side of the Oskil river could rather be a secondary target or a sort of collateral damage of this offensive. Also, if Ukraine regains control over the area between Kharkiv and Kupiansk, they will control a railway line all the way to Kupiansk to feed their own logistics.

Here is a map showing the railway lines in the area of Kupiansk:
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1567935220489273345/photo/1
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:59 pm

petertenthije wrote:
T4thH wrote:
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them.

Looking at the footage, it seems their rear doors are open. Surely that can’t help their buoyancy. :D

To be fair though, they might have opened the doors to escape the sinking BMP. Whatever the case may be, scratch three BMPs!

Sorry, no one will open the back doors/hatches against the water pressure from outsite. BMPs have also roof hatches,if you have to escape...through the roof hatches. Pretty sure the back hatches have been opened by Ukrainian soldiers, to more easy loot them (after they were drowned and water has risen inside to the same level outsite). You can see the looted ammunition and ATGM at the beach.

Pull them out, repair them during winter and the two mud times, bring them back after the mud time in spring, to take back Donbass and Crimea.
As long the engines were not running, when the BMPs were drowned (so the engines took no water from the air intake while running) then you have just to clean them.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:26 pm

T4thH wrote:
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them.


We have in the US WWIi amphibious trucks (DUKW) that drive tourists around a local lake. There was an incident where the seal to the propeller shaft leaked and drowned the DUKW.

So your vehicle may be amphibious, but if you don't maintain those seals, they may leak. And we all know how good Russian maintenance is.

bt
 
tomcat
Posts: 1081
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:33 pm

tomcat wrote:
Vintage wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

Latest Google Map showing the salient in pushing up the P07 highway and are a stone throw away from the town. Google Map is usually slow so who knows where they are now? Even if they stop for an operational pause now, they have that town under artilery control for sure.

Now if they take out a couple of those bridges, Izyum would be a mini Kerson.

All they have to do is cut P07 anywhere south of Kupiansk and the whole area becomes an island, I would bet money that the bridge at Horokhovatka is already down. And I also bet all Russia's pontoons are down south.


I don't think the roads are as important to support Russia's logistics as the railways. Kupiansk area is a very important railway node. It is connected (1) to the northwest to Belgorod (RU) via Vovchans'k and (2) to the northeast to Valuyki (RU) via Topoli, while just south of Kupiansk and just east of the Oskil river, the railway is branching out in 2 lines, one leading to Lyman, the other one to Sievierodonetsk. I would think that the main goal of this offensive is to cut those railways and Kupiansk is the best place to do it. Isolating the Izium pocket on the west side of the Oskil river could rather be a secondary target or a sort of collateral damage of this offensive. Also, if Ukraine regains control over the area between Kharkiv and Kupiansk, they will control a railway line all the way to Kupiansk to feed their own logistics.

Here is a map showing the railway lines in the area of Kupiansk:
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1567935220489273345/photo/1


Here is a video of civilians taking down a Russian flag in Yasynuvate (Kharkiv Oblast), located halfway between Kupiansk and Izium, even slightly closer to Izium than Kupiansk. One has to wonder how many Russian soldiers are left in the Izium pocket. They must be concentrated mostly south of Izium where they have long been attempting to move towards Slovyansk.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1567950839469477889
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:55 pm

bikerthai wrote:
T4thH wrote:
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them.


We have in the US WWIi amphibious trucks (DUKW) that drive tourists around a local lake. There was an incident where the seal to the propeller shaft leaked and drowned the DUKW.

So your vehicle may be amphibious, but if you don't maintain those seals, they may leak. And we all know how good Russian maintenance is.

bt

The river is less than 50 m wide and only less than 2 m deep.They shall be able to cross it in far less than a minute. They are not swiming around and trying to cross the >1 km wide Dnjepr near Kerson. A little bit leaking is....
 
Klaus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:04 am

T4thH wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
T4thH wrote:
BMPs are fully amphibious after short preparation. I really do not understand, how they have managed to drown them.

Looking at the footage, it seems their rear doors are open. Surely that can’t help their buoyancy. :D

To be fair though, they might have opened the doors to escape the sinking BMP. Whatever the case may be, scratch three BMPs!

Sorry, no one will open the back doors/hatches against the water pressure from outsite.

Sure they can, when the water is already gushing into the compartment and thus sinking the vehicle in the shallow water!

BMPs have also roof hatches,if you have to escape...through the roof hatches.

At least as far as I understand the design the rear compartment has no door to the driver / gunner compartment. It's exit through the back doors or not at all.

Pretty sure the back hatches have been opened by Ukrainian soldiers, to more easy loot them (after they were drowned and water has risen inside to the same level outsite). You can see the looted ammunition and ATGM at the beach.

No bodies though.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 12:27 am

T4thH wrote:
A little bit leaking is....


True, a small leak should not be an issue in the main compartment. But if the leak is in the engine compartment?

The other posibility is that they just got stuck in the mud at the edge if the river. So stead of waiting for a drone to spot them, they quickly departed on foot.

bt
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:07 am

Klaus wrote:
T4thH wrote:
petertenthije wrote:
Looking at the footage, it seems their rear doors are open. Surely that can’t help their buoyancy. :D

To be fair though, they might have opened the doors to escape the sinking BMP. Whatever the case may be, scratch three BMPs!

Sorry, no one will open the back doors/hatches against the water pressure from outsite.

Sure they can, when the water is already gushing into the compartment and thus sinking the vehicle in the shallow water!

BMPs have also roof hatches,if you have to escape...through the roof hatches.

At least as far as I understand the design the rear compartment has no door to the driver / gunner compartment. It's exit through the back doors or not at all.

Pretty sure the back hatches have been opened by Ukrainian soldiers, to more easy loot them (after they were drowned and water has risen inside to the same level outsite). You can see the looted ammunition and ATGM at the beach.

No bodies though.

the BMP 1 and BMP 2 have two hatches behind the turret on the roof, one left and one right.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/%D0%9D%D0%B0_%D0%94%D0%BD%D1%96%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%96_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%C2%BB_%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%2C_%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83_%D1%82%D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96_%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%97%C2%BB_%2826743363083%29.jpg/1024px-thumbnail.jpg?1662688077145
And no one will open a door, when the water level inside and outside is more than 10 or 20 cm. Really fast, we are talking about several hundred of kg.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21896
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:14 am

T4thH wrote:
Klaus wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Sorry, no one will open the back doors/hatches against the water pressure from outsite.

Sure they can, when the water is already gushing into the compartment and thus sinking the vehicle in the shallow water!

BMPs have also roof hatches,if you have to escape...through the roof hatches.

At least as far as I understand the design the rear compartment has no door to the driver / gunner compartment. It's exit through the back doors or not at all.

Pretty sure the back hatches have been opened by Ukrainian soldiers, to more easy loot them (after they were drowned and water has risen inside to the same level outsite). You can see the looted ammunition and ATGM at the beach.

No bodies though.

the BMP 1 and BMP 2 have two hatches behind the turret on the roof, one left and one right.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/%D0%9D%D0%B0_%D0%94%D0%BD%D1%96%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%96_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%C2%BB_%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%2C_%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83_%D1%82%D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96_%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%97%C2%BB_%2826743363083%29.jpg/1024px-thumbnail.jpg?1662688077145
And no one will open a door, when the water level inside and outside is more than 10 or 20 cm. Really fast, we are talking about several hundred of kg.

Okay then, so evacuation most likely happened that way.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 2:32 am

Klaus wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Sure they can, when the water is already gushing into the compartment and thus sinking the vehicle in the shallow water!


At least as far as I understand the design the rear compartment has no door to the driver / gunner compartment. It's exit through the back doors or not at all.


No bodies though.

the BMP 1 and BMP 2 have two hatches behind the turret on the roof, one left and one right.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/%D0%9D%D0%B0_%D0%94%D0%BD%D1%96%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%89%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%96_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%C2%BB_%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%2C_%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83_%D1%82%D0%B0_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8_%C2%AB%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96_%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%97%C2%BB_%2826743363083%29.jpg/1024px-thumbnail.jpg?1662688077145
And no one will open a door, when the water level inside and outside is more than 10 or 20 cm. Really fast, we are talking about several hundred of kg.

Okay then, so evacuation most likely happened that way.

No, most likely, the Russian soldiers were just sitting on the top of the tank as regular.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1868
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:18 am

OK, it is not confirmed, as identified only by social media...

It seems, the colonel, seen as POW in a video few days ago, was not a colonel.
It shall be Gen. Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the group west of the Russian army. So the commanding general for the Charkov region.
Broken nose, the face swollen (seems he got a nice kick in his face), the mole could be also dirt...the ear shape seems to fit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9fp7i/seems_the_orc_that_was_shown_in_the_video_on_his/
And the video. 6 soldiers to guard him?
https://twitter.com/lvivjournal/status/1568014672892149761?s=46&t=iRHF9UNPoILJ__BsE1oHkw
 
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Aesma
Posts: 15999
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:21 am

It would be good if Ukraine managed to capture a large group of POW, it would make the situation untenable for Putin.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:50 am

T4thH wrote:
the mole could be also dirt...the ear shape seems to fit


Could another clue is how his jacket seems to be too small for his belly? I mean even a Lieutenant Coronel should have a better fitting jacket?

bt

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