It looks like this war may continue for many more months. Some years, even. Is it realistic to think of supplying Ukraine with fighters that are not already in its inventory? This article suggests that Gripen would be the fighter best suited to the conditions in Ukraine.

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/fighter- ... nt-ukraine

Europe, US and Canada have already supplied much equipment to enable Ukraine to better counter Russia's invasion. I don't see how supplying fighters built by or used by US or Europe would be so different in nature. An ongoing stalemate might suit the western MIC's but 'the people of the west' want Ukraine to win this war as quickly as possible, don't they? I say give them the tools to do the job. To liberate themselves.

For all I know Ukrainian pilots may already be training on F-16 and/or Gripen. Is that likely?

par13del wrote:

As for arming Russian neighbors, the US would have a hard time doing that against the wishes of the Europeans, based on what Germany is still doing, they seem to still believe in constructive engagement, Europeans in general seem to believe that if trade links are deep enough and the economies integrated, that is the best defense against conflict, I am subject to be proven wrong but I believe that sentiment is still strong, time will tell.

We agree but I don't think the EU leaders think it's the "best" way to do things, but the easiest or most convenient. Even now, you see the differences in perceived Russian threat, usually by how far their border is from Russia.

ThePointblank wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

kelval wrote:

but I think they still lack equipment and ammunition stocks to go faster.

If Autumn is dry, they can get some more territorial gains before winter.

Some of the photos of the recent offensive shows rain clouds. Has the autumn rain started?

I think the Ukrainian forces will be able to operate better during the winter as they have light infantry forces options with light vehicles that can operate on softer grounds. They were able to operate effectively against the Russian during the spring.

I concur with the importance of reaching the Azov sea before winter. Then they can start targeting the bridge all through winter.

bt

Edit: Talk about the Russian setting a trap by "withdrawing" by Russian bloggers. Well the mouse came in to Izium, took the cheese, raised the flag, made a speech and is probably back in Kyiv. Mean while the trap spring has rusted.

That's assuming that the Russians have winter gear and equipment and can distribute it to troops in good time... and based upon the utter shit show Russian logistics has been, it's likely that may Russian soldiers on the front lines will still be in their summer gear well past January.

I mean, Russian soldiers are already forced to buy their own gear because the stuff that was supposed to be issued to them either sucks, or is non-existent because some corrupt quartermaster has sold it off to line their own pockets.

The corruption magnifies the Russian logistics issues.

Winter is coming.

Russian boots are "shody" and just not holding up. They are judged unsuitable for summer combat, they will be miserable in winter.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... update/amp

I hope the world supplies Ukraine with great winter boots.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
Didn't anyone read history on the issues of fighting in Ukraine with inadequate boots?!?

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

lightsaber wrote:

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

Guards vanishing... and i assuming we shall hear of a few more oligarchs falling out of windows or accidentally killing their whole family and then killing themselves in grief.

Tugg

lightsaber wrote:

hope the world supplies Ukraine with great winter boots.

Supply the materials and Ukraine can make their own.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/uk ... rmer-boots

Win-win.

art wrote:

Is it realistic to think of supplying Ukraine with fighters that are not already in its inventory?

Fighter acquisition takes years to complete. So if you ask if Ukraine should get new fighters 5 years from now, then yes they should "think" about it today.

bt

Tugger wrote:

we shall hear of a few more oligarchs falling out of windows or accidentally killing their whole family and then killing themselves in grief.

If one was to attempt the assassination, one should be smart enough to surround yourself and your family with sufficient body guards.

So no falling out the windows without a firefight?

bt

lightsaber wrote:

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

Or the tire burst for whatever reason.
Perhaps they saved on the tire filling/foam due to corruption and the tires are of the same quality as those on Russian military vehicles.

Or somebody was just smoking nearby and it went boom.

50 x Dingo armored cars, 2x additional MARS II + 200 rockets,.
"Ringtausch" with Greece will be performed soon, Greece will give 40x BMP 1 to Ukraine and will be paid back with 40 x Marder IFVs from Germany.

Source is in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Deutschland-liefert-Dingo-Fahrzeuge-und-Raketenwerfer-article23591445.html

ReverseFlow wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

Or the tire burst for whatever reason.
Perhaps they saved on the tire filling/foam due to corruption and the tires are of the same quality as those on Russian military vehicles.

Or somebody was just smoking nearby and it went boom.

If it was just a freak blow out, which in normal times would be the more likely thing, it couldn't be worse for Putin as he will clean house of his most loyal and best security for no reason. Torture gets good people to admit to things they did not do.

Tugg

Vintage wrote:

T4thH wrote:

50 x Dingo armored cars, 2x additional MARS II + 200 rockets,.
"Ringtausch" with Greece will be performed soon, Greece will give 40x BMP 1 to Ukraine and will be paid back with 40 x Marder IFVs from Germany.

Source is in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Deutschland-liefert-Dingo-Fahrzeuge-und-Raketenwerfer-article23591445.html

That's the kind of a deal that Zelenski has spoken out against, he asks the west to give Ukraine state of the art equipment, not just hand me downs.

Come on. Do you all still not have recognized it in the meanwhile?
Sorry, but if you all have still not understood it.
How says someone regular in a German Youtube channel:"Some have to be left behind"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxDTf9R22lE

ReverseFlow wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

Or the tire burst for whatever reason.
Perhaps they saved on the tire filling/foam due to corruption and the tires are of the same quality as those on Russian military vehicles.

Or somebody was just smoking nearby and it went boom.

I'm calling BS on this. If this was indeed an inside job, they would have ensured that it would have succeeded no matter what, rather than doing a half assed job that leaves him alive and seeking vengeance.

lightsaber wrote:

Apparently a failed assassination attempt on Putin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... 6fb9f483af

Sounds a bit unlikely, but better luck next time.

johns624 wrote:

. Even now, you see the differences in perceived Russian threat, usually by how far their border is from Russia.

Facts please

How appropriate:
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 5842048004

Braybuddy wrote:

How appropriate:
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 5842048004

Rest in Peace...

Xi Jinping is finally out of the wood:
wrong article

I guess he had to back Russia up. Otherwise how would his objective allies back him when he plans to invade Taiwan?
Also, there's probably too much to squeeze out of Russia to let Putin down.

kelval wrote:

Xi Jinping is finally out of the wood:
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-x ... n-ukraine/

I guess he had to back Russia up. Otherwise how would his objective allies back him when he plans to invade Taiwan?
Also, there's probably too much to squeeze out of Russia to let Putin down.

He actually hasn't really taken Russia's side:

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday offered the most unambiguous declaration of support to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin since the invasion of Ukraine, vowing to support Moscow’s “sovereignty and security.”

That position can actually be supported by pretty much anyone, even by Ukraine: Nobody wants to invade or destroy Russia militarily, so that was really just a non-statement with just slight atmospheric / emotional support but without really engaging the Ukraine conflict either way.

Of course Xi would like to keep all options for tyrants open with his own designs on Taiwan, but he can't afford to cross the western sanctions without causing massive damage to the chinese economy.

With this statement he telegraphs some lukewarm support for Putin without actually committing to anything tangible, which will likely trigger grumbling and warnings from the USA and their partners, but no actually increased sanctions against China as long as China makes no motions to include the russian-occupied parts of Ukraine in that statement, which Xi has carefully avoided there!

Xi knows how to play this game!

kelval wrote:

Xi Jinping is finally out of the wood:
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-x ... n-ukraine/

I guess he had to back Russia up. Otherwise how would his objective allies back him when he plans to invade Taiwan?
Also, there's probably too much to squeeze out of Russia to let Putin down.

Interesting but this dates from 3 months ago. It's not related to today's meeting between Putin and Jinping.

Yeah I messed up my links, looking for the right one atm.

I can't find a good link in english so a rough translation from french would be: "China is willing to work with Russia for a firm and mutual support on issues related to each other's core interests", Translated from Le Monde

kelval wrote:

Yeah I messed up my links, looking for the right one atm.

I can't find a good link in english so a rough translation from french would be: "China is willing to work with Russia for a firm and mutual support on issues related to each other's core interests", Translated from Le Monde

Well, that the tyrants have common interests in oppressing their respective people and conquering whatever they want (as long as it's not their own territory getting robbed!) has always been clear.

The sanctions are defined clearly enough to not be triggered by statements like this, but should China actually take effective steps to undercut the sanctions then china will indeed run the risk of getting slapped with sanctions themselves – Xi knows this and is carefully checking how far he can go, exactly, in maybe exploiting Putin's dire situation without getting hit himself!

kelval wrote:

Xi Jinping is finally out of the wood:
wrong article

I guess he had to back Russia up. Otherwise how would his objective allies back him when he plans to invade Taiwan?
Also, there's probably too much to squeeze out of Russia to let Putin down.

A less than ringing endorsement for Putin. He actually looks like a sheepish schoolboy reluctantly reading out a script he has been forced to write:
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... 9172085761

Compare that to the blustering, arrogant buffon of last February:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucEs0nB ... el=BBCNews

Additional tensions on the southern Russian border.

The Georgian Military is reported to be on the move on the Ossetian border.

https://twitter.com/AceJaceu/status/1569996501614485504

I happen to see on FR24 a US C-17 landing in Georgia a couple of days ago. I don't know how often this happens and I wonder what was the purpose of this flight.

I doubt Georgia would purposely start a war, but it would be good news for Ukraine, and would probably get the Crimean going again against Russia.

One thing for China that the war in Ukraine has exposed is how absolutely critical logistics and continued support into a battle is for any attempted invasion. (In turn highlighting that opposing forces must deny such.)

Logistics is exceedingly difficult when dealing with Taiwan. The only way would be for China to have total and exclusive control over the entire Taiwan Strait. Otherwise the only other option is annihilation (or capitulation).

Tugg

casinterest wrote:

I doubt Georgia would purposely start a war, but it would be good news for Ukraine, and would probably get the Crimean going again against Russia.

Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being Russian?

art wrote:

Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being Russian?

The original polls indicated no, there was not a majority that favored becoming part of Russia.

There was a majority that wanted to not be part of Ukraine, leaning toward independence but that was about it. (Which was the path Russia used to absorb them. First having Crimea declare "independence" then deciding to vote to not not be independent.)

Now of course that might be different after 8 years of ethnic/nationals dilution.

Well this is an, ummm... interesting read.
https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/18088560/u ... ed-to-know

In 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up, everyone expected Moscow to demand Crimea back. But it didn't. A slight majority of Crimeans voted for independence from Russia, and when Crimea formally joined the newly independent Ukraine (but with special autonomy privileges), Russia promised to honor and respect this.

Tugg

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

. Even now, you see the differences in perceived Russian threat, usually by how far their border is from Russia.

Facts please

Sure, no problem. I always have sources to back my statements up. I just thought that this was common knowledge and didn't need links.
https://www.statista.com/chart/27331/co ... raine-aid/

art wrote:

casinterest wrote:

I doubt Georgia would purposely start a war, but it would be good news for Ukraine, and would probably get the Crimean going again against Russia.

Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being Russian?

From 2014 to 2019, yes. Russia (with support and investments of few oligarchs, especially one) made the land of milk and honey for them, to win their hearts. Around 2019, someone has decided, it is not any more needed.
Crimea was prepared from 2019 on for this war now, the oppression started, the people started to fear Russia/the oppression. It is harder and it needs more time, to win hearts, you can easily loose them again in shortest time.

They live in fear now in Crimea, that their youth and all males will be conscripted and pushed into bad equipped home defense forces and spent as cannon fodder. And there are hints, it will start soon, perhaps this Saturday. All males are not any more allowed to leave crimea, starting this weekend.
Many families, perhaps most, have still family connection to the rest of Ukraine. No, they are not so happy, what is going on. And do not forget, a civil war in Donbas since 2014...8 years of war, no one likes it, also not in Crimea.
So the corrected question is:
"Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being STILL Russian?"
Pretty sure less than 2018. But no one is able to answer this question now.

@Vintage, @Tugger, @T4thH Interesting. Thanks.

bikerthai wrote:

Tugger wrote:

we shall hear of a few more oligarchs falling out of windows or accidentally killing their whole family and then killing themselves in grief.

If one was to attempt the assassination, one should be smart enough to surround yourself and your family with sufficient body guards.

So no falling out the windows without a firefight?

bt

So no natural gas explosions in Russia, hhmmm...I thought they also used it for heating like the west...

OK people, tell me the car in the linked picture is a VW Beatle (new version).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion

bt

bikerthai wrote:

OK people, tell me the car in the linked picture is a VW Beatle (new version).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion

bt

I think it might be an Astra coupe from many years ago.

bikerthai wrote:

OK people, tell me the car in the linked picture is a VW Beatle (new version).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion

bt

I can't quite recognize the model but this is some Mad Max level of backyard engineering and I'm absolutely loving it.

After the war, they should sell those to collectors to raise money for Ukraine's reconstruction.

bikerthai wrote:

OK people, tell me the car in the linked picture is a VW Beatle (new version).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... e-invasion

bt

Kinda looks like a Peugeot?

Sobering statistics. I presume that casualty figures refer to civilian casualties..

Estimated losses
From Reuters · Updated 1 day ago

Deaths
At least 29,587 people

Non-fatal injuries
At least 52,890 people

Displaced
Approximately 14M people

Buildings destroyed
At least 140,000

Property damage
Approximately US$350B

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine ... e&ie=UTF-8

According to this report, the second strike on the dam on the Inhulets river could cause the river to rise further, trapping a pocket of Ukrainian troops on the southern side. It does seem worrying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObCxo7q ... WarUpdates

Vintage wrote:

T4thH wrote:

50 x Dingo armored cars, 2x additional MARS II + 200 rockets,.
"Ringtausch" with Greece will be performed soon, Greece will give 40x BMP 1 to Ukraine and will be paid back with 40 x Marder IFVs from Germany.

Source is in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Deutschland-liefert-Dingo-Fahrzeuge-und-Raketenwerfer-article23591445.html

That's the kind of a deal that Zelenski has spoken out against, he asks the west to give Ukraine state of the art equipment, not just hand me downs.

The BMP-1 are in operation in the Ukraine currently and can be integrated much easier into the existing setup and equipment pool of the Ukrainian Army. At the same time it starts to remove another legacy Sovjet system from a NATO member´s equipmet list. Similar to the other countries who have signed up for the Ringtausch.

OTOH, getting 50 infranty mobility vehicles and another 2 MARS system isn´t "nothing", too. You´re not always getting what you´re asking for.

As there´s a lot of critizism around that Germany isn´t delivering or only small scale: there is an up-to date list available with what has been delivered so far, and what else is being prepared to be deliverey. Can be found here: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/krieg-in-der-ukraine/lieferungen-ukraine-2054514 There is more required than just tanks to fight a war...

[photoid][/photoid]

Braybuddy wrote:

According to this report, the second strike on the dam on the Inhulets river could cause the river to rise further, trapping a pocket of Ukrainian troops on the southern side. It does seem worrying:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObCxo7q ... WarUpdates

The river appears to be around 100 feet wide in most places and no more than 50 in some. Maybe this will be a problem for pontoons (if that is what they are using now) but it seems like they should be able to do something.

That dam is is a long way from the pontoon bridges. In between you should have lots of place to absorb the water.

We are not talking about a wall of water at the bridge site. Maybe a steady, quick rise in water level.

And even if the bridges gets dammaged, they would just re-assemble it. Just the same as if it was bombed. It is after all a war of attrition.

bt

Who'd want to administer occupied Ukraine?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/ ... nsk-a78811

"Their deaths mean five Russian-installed officials have been killed in Russian-occupied or separatist-held areas of Ukraine on Friday alone as Kyiv continues to press ahead with its counteroffensive in the northeast and south."

And, unbelievably:
"Pro-Russian figures have placed early blame for the attack that targeted the prosecutor's office on Ukrainian sabotage, with Pasechnik saying it "showed that Kyiv's regime had crossed all possible limits.""

T4thH wrote:

art wrote:

casinterest wrote:

I doubt Georgia would purposely start a war, but it would be good news for Ukraine, and would probably get the Crimean going again against Russia.

Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being Russian?

From 2014 to 2019, yes. Russia (with support and investments of few oligarchs, especially one) made the land of milk and honey for them, to win their hearts. Around 2019, someone has decided, it is not any more needed.
Crimea was prepared from 2019 on for this war now, the oppression started, the people started to fear Russia/the oppression. It is harder and it needs more time, to win hearts, you can easily loose them again in shortest time.

They live in fear now in Crimea, that their youth and all males will be conscripted and pushed into bad equipped home defense forces and spent as cannon fodder. And there are hints, it will start soon, perhaps this Saturday. All males are not any more allowed to leave crimea, starting this weekend.
Many families, perhaps most, have still family connection to the rest of Ukraine. No, they are not so happy, what is going on. And do not forget, a civil war in Donbas since 2014...8 years of war, no one likes it, also not in Crimea.
So the corrected question is:
"Isn't there a big majority of people in Crimea who favour being STILL Russian?"
Pretty sure less than 2018. But no one is able to answer this question now.

I think Crimea lost hope, and saw no way out without settling. I think this recent war in Ukraine is opening a lot of eyes in the neighboring states that all fear a return to the bad old days of the USSR. I would imagine there are lots of negotiations going on in the background about how to make sure that doesn't happen.

I just hope that the ukrainians refrain from revenge killings and murder even while understanding the pain and grief they have been suffering from the russian incursions (the reports of apparent abuse, torture and further massacres are deeply troubling indeed).

But there will be an aftermath and Ukraine needs to be on the side of the rule of law and justifiable self-defense to really go ahead unimpeded, prosecuting war criminals correctly!

Klaus wrote:

I just hope that the ukrainians refrain from revenge killings and murder even while understanding the pain and grief they have been suffering from the russian incursions (the reports of apparent abuse, torture and further massacres are deeply troubling indeed).

But there will be an aftermath and Ukraine needs to be on the side of the rule of law and justifiable self-defense to really go ahead unimpeded, prosecuting war criminals correctly!

We shall not forget, we have pretty sure only seen the tip of the iceberg.

Just remind.
How long they have been north of Kiev, and how many massgraves we have seen there, like in Bucha.
How much longer they have been here in Charkov. How many...more and bigger ones....we will find here.

What do we expect to see in the whole south...Mariopol....all these "cleaning camps" to select the "wrong ones". 50.000? 100.000? More?
In Kherson, what will we find here? There are rumors, the last weeks....were....we will find massgraves, fresh mass garves.
Will we see massgraves from 2014 in Donbass, when it is liberated? And will we see new ones, recently....?

I will be willed to lift the sanctions, when...

the last of the war criminals has be sent by Russia to an international court.
the last of the war criminals has got into jail in Russia, courts to be checked by international society.
the last war criminal, protected by Russia (if Russia is not willed to follow point one or two), has reached the age of 100 years.

Regarding 3. so the great grandson asked his grandfather: "what have you done, that my live is so fucked"...I am fine with it.

Sorry, I am not a nice guy. Just remind, in Germany, the justice is still hunting our own ones, involved in the KZ systems, even the cooks, the administrative staff. Even when they have reached an age >100.