Russian natural gas lines... some go through Ukraine, others don't, but the ramifications to Germany cannot be understated...

Germany's Catastrophic Gas Problem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xi74gPrn24Y

T4thH wrote:

GDB wrote:

On the battlefield, a rare piece of Russian kit takes it role a bit too far;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4ynRbsr8_Y

Sorry...do we see this video now the second or the third time here in this forum?

First I have seen of it, a new one when I posted about something I did not know existed.

Klaus wrote:

johns624 wrote:

As expected, Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution condemning the annexation of parts of Ukraine. While China has tried to act like they're neutral, actions speak louder than words. They abstained, along with India, Brazil and Gabon. By abstaining, they supported Russia. If India and Brazil think that their relationship with Russia is more important than with the rest of the world, let them reap the "benefits".
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/1-u- ... 45767.html

No, that is a false conclusion!

It would have been highly surprising if China and India in particular had openly taken the side of NATO in this conflict; It is more important that in particular China continues to carefully avoid getting dragged into Putin's mess.

Also they have to have some “wiggle room” when Putin is going to use a nuke. Russia, China and India are founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (and BRICS), so for them there is more at stake.

This transcript from a foreign fighter at Lyman paints a pretty gruesome picture:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

Things seem to be heating-up in Dagestan, with what appears to be full mobilisation:
https://twitter.com/rendeiro_silva/stat ... 3990033409

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 6090822657

Mobile recruitment offices:
https://twitter.com/nadinbrzezinski/sta ... 5734520832

Which has resulted in an epidemic of broken legs :
https://twitter.com/Helpful_Hand_SA/sta ... 2054507524

Russian economy predicted to shrink 4% to 5% in October alone due to impacts of mobilization:
https://news.yahoo.com/russias-economy- ... 07091.html

I posted far upthread the costs of mobilization:
1. Men flee, denying their labor
2. Men take up secure positions where they are less productive to avoid mobilization
3. Men are mobilized (out of the productive labor force)
4. Men go for every exemption they can find, with a hit to productivity (e.g., pursue a college major they are not inclined towards just because it avoids call up)

Lightsaber

GDB wrote:

T4thH wrote:

GDB wrote:

On the battlefield, a rare piece of Russian kit takes it role a bit too far;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4ynRbsr8_Y

Sorry...do we see this video now the second or the third time here in this forum?

First I have seen of it, a new one when I posted about something I did not know existed.

I don't mind double posts. Sometimes this thread moved so fast that things get missed.

Braybuddy wrote:

This transcript from a foreign fighter at Lyman paints a pretty gruesome picture:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

Grim indeed. The guy was talking about a retreat to Kreminna. Must be near the area of that road from Lyman to Kreminna.

bt

Braybuddy wrote:

This transcript from a foreign fighter at Lyman paints a pretty gruesome picture:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

Reminds me of some stories my grandparents told me when they were talking about WWII… I can vividly remember the expressions of horror on their faces…

marcelh wrote:

Braybuddy wrote:

This transcript from a foreign fighter at Lyman paints a pretty gruesome picture:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

Reminds me of some stories my grandparents told me when they were talking about WWII… I can vividly remember the expressions of horror on their faces…

Meanwhile.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ly-turmoil

Fascinating article in the Moscow Times about the chaos among the ruling elites, and why Putin always chooses escalation:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/ ... ion-a78923

" “There is a total lack of coordination; it’s a mess. Putin tells everyone different things,” said a source close to the government. He said this applies not only to the economy but also how the war is run. “What were we doing in Kharkiv? No one has a clue – neither politicians nor the military. It just happened!” "

"Our sources were confident that the mobilization announcement makes the prospect of any expression of discontent among the elite less likely. (. . . ) There is little sincere support for the war in the Russian establishment, according to an executive at a major private company who knows Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. “All these officials making comparisons with World War II in public are only doing what is expected of them. It’s their defense mechanism. There used to be those officials that said they had a ‘boss’ [an informal term for Putin], and he would unify society. Now everyone understands that this is not the case,” he said."

Braybuddy wrote:

This transcript from a foreign fighter at Lyman paints a pretty gruesome picture:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordp ... slaughter/

Imagine getting blown up by a mine and dying from severed legs, knowing that was a mine your own military put there...

There was a quote saying that the Russians were mowing the Ukrainian down with machine guns. Then the Ukrainian got up and continue the attack like drugged zombies.

At first I thought it was hyperboles. But then . . . . maybe this the benefit of having body armour that actually works!

bt

Weeb Union War Updates shows how the AFU encircled Lyman and how Russian media have reported that the city has fallen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu2mc-O ... WarUpdates

The BBC live feed is reporting a major fire at an airbase in Sevastopol, Crimea.

No link to the headline itself as the feed constantly updates with other stuff, but there is a video:
https://t.me/vesticrimea/6116

The Russians claim that an airplane overran the runway and caught fire, but the blaze and associated explosions looks a bit too impressive for being a 'simple' runway excursion event. It looks more like another one of these cigarette-related mishaps to me...
Oh well, at the very least, they're down another airplane.

JUST IN - Russia's Gazprom suspends gas transit through Austria.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 9034733573

Braybuddy wrote:

Weeb Union War Updates shows how the AFU encircled Lyman and how Russian media have reported that the city has fallen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu2mc-O ... WarUpdates

Russian troops withdraw from strategic town of Lyman where Ukraine's forces threatened to encircle them, Russia's defence ministry says https://bbc.in/3E5N1aD

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/ ... 7662737410

Awesome, a video taken from a nudie beach in Crimea…. At least it sure looks like a few in the buff. Wonder what it was that went up in smoke. The explosion looks too powerful be be a normal overrun.

DIRECTFLT wrote:

JUST IN - Russia's Gazprom suspends gas transit through Austria.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 9034733573

According to this, the gas goes to Italy.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ

Apparently Italy still gets 25% of their gas from Russia.

Use your translator

ReverseFlow wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

JUST IN - Russia's Gazprom suspends gas transit through Austria.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 9034733573

According to this, the gas goes to Italy.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ

Apparently Italy still gets 25% of their gas from Russia.

Use your translator

Now that Italy is led by a de fact Putin sympathizer, it's a perfect time for him to crank up the pressure on them to see if they will flinch, abandon the EU stance on Russia and start sabotaging Europe's effort from the inside.

Putin has finally placed a pawn in Western Europe and he will definitely use it(/her) as much as he can.

Francoflier wrote:

The BBC live feed is reporting a major fire at an airbase in Sevastopol, Crimea.

No link to the headline itself as the feed constantly updates with other stuff, but there is a video:
https://t.me/vesticrimea/6116

The Russians claim that an airplane overran the runway and caught fire, but the blaze and associated explosions looks a bit too impressive for being a 'simple' runway excursion event. It looks more like another one of these cigarette-related mishaps to me...
Oh well, at the very least, they're down another airplane.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back on to a Crimean beach....

Latest deep dive from Perun, this time on Russian mobilization, how it works, or doesn't, it's potential on the war;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hXnQNU8ANo

France is about to donate 6 to 12 more Caesar self propelled howitzers to Ukraine.
They are the heavier 8x8 fully automatic version, initially supposed to go to Denmark.
Link in french: https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

kelval wrote:

France is about to donate 6 to 12 more Caesar self propelled howitzers to Ukraine.
They are the heavier 8x8 fully automatic version, initially supposed to go to Denmark.
Link in french: https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

Some interesting additional information about the 8x8 version:
https://www.military-today.com/artillery/caesar_8x8.htm

Francoflier wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

JUST IN - Russia's Gazprom suspends gas transit through Austria.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 9034733573

According to this, the gas goes to Italy.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ

Apparently Italy still gets 25% of their gas from Russia.

Use your translator

Now that Italy is led by a de fact Putin sympathizer, it's a perfect time for him to crank up the pressure on them to see if they will flinch, abandon the EU stance on Russia and start sabotaging Europe's effort from the inside.

Putin has finally placed a pawn in Western Europe and he will definitely use it(/her) as much as he can.

Actually she pledged full support for Ukraine three days ago, so it seems more like Russia is upset about her standpoint and are punishing Italy for her response.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/it ... 022-09-28/

Francoflier wrote:

The BBC live feed is reporting a major fire at an airbase in Sevastopol, Crimea.

No link to the headline itself as the feed constantly updates with other stuff, but there is a video:
https://t.me/vesticrimea/6116

The Russians claim that an airplane overran the runway and caught fire, but the blaze and associated explosions looks a bit too impressive for being a 'simple' runway excursion event. It looks more like another one of these cigarette-related mishaps to me...
Oh well, at the very least, they're down another airplane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euq1sqd-nOk

Other videos suggest that this blaze and associated explosions are indeed due to a 'simple' runway excursion event. The Utube video here is by Suchomimnus. He makes really thorough analyses of videos, and I can only recommend that you watch them. Cheers.

Seeing a lot of western 'right' aligned talking heads/opinionistas talking up Putin's big victories and annexing of Ukraine with sham votes, they seem to be absolutely in awe of it. (rolling eyes).

It's good that Ukraine is pushing back and ramping up the pressure:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/rus ... 5bmiw.html

(open in private window to avoid the pay-wall)

Francoflier wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

JUST IN - Russia's Gazprom suspends gas transit through Austria.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 9034733573

According to this, the gas goes to Italy.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ

Apparently Italy still gets 25% of their gas from Russia.

Use your translator

Now that Italy is led by a de fact Putin sympathizer, it's a perfect time for him to crank up the pressure on them to see if they will flinch, abandon the EU stance on Russia and start sabotaging Europe's effort from the inside.

Putin has finally placed a pawn in Western Europe and he will definitely use it(/her) as much as he can.

It's not Meloni I'm worried about, it's the other Papo-facist hypocrites she's aligned herself with. Salvini is one of her biggest allies, for example, and when Berulsconi isn't busy cruising around for barely legal 15 year old schoolgirls, who knows what the hell he could unleash on the Putin matter.

I know Salvini has been speaking against the sanctions due to the energy issue. Was this Austria pipeline fed from any of the destroyed Nord Stream ones?

There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJzdiL8as-Q&feature=emb_title

LHAM wrote:

There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJzdiL8as-Q&feature=emb_title

Already discussed upthread. It was a spectacular runway over-run.

SEAorPWM wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

ReverseFlow wrote:

According to this, the gas goes to Italy.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ

Apparently Italy still gets 25% of their gas from Russia.

Use your translator

Now that Italy is led by a de fact Putin sympathizer, it's a perfect time for him to crank up the pressure on them to see if they will flinch, abandon the EU stance on Russia and start sabotaging Europe's effort from the inside.

Putin has finally placed a pawn in Western Europe and he will definitely use it(/her) as much as he can.

It's not Meloni I'm worried about, it's the other Papo-facist hypocrites she's aligned herself with. Salvini is one of her biggest allies, for example, and when Berulsconi isn't busy cruising around for barely legal 15 year old schoolgirls, who knows what the hell he could unleash on the Putin matter.

I know Salvini has been speaking against the sanctions due to the energy issue. Was this Austria pipeline fed from any of the destroyed Nord Stream ones?

Salvini seems to be out of the picture, at least of the inner circle.
His visit to Kyiv early on went badly, since the Ukrainians remembered his Putin fanboy stuff.

A released Ukrainian POW, treated as you would expect by Russian forces;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuYRRqbD-fQ

Nine eastern and central European NATO members put out a joint statement supporting Ukraine and urging all NATO members to up their supplies. Like I've said in the past, the closer you are to the Bear, the bigger you know the threat is.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/9- ... c1ad5c937a

After the latest Perun deep dive posted yesterday, about the Russian mobilization, a trip back to the UK, I understand the basic training has been extended in length to 5 weeks;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgQ66xVS2Ac

Going to be better than what the mobilized Russians are getting that's for sure.
Notable that instruction on the .50 cal and Mk.19's are shown, the instructor say they might encounter them, plenty have been supplied, including by those who are often cited as not doing enough.
People, well rags like the Daily Mail, sneered early on at some giving mostly body armour, first aid, comms, (missing out the weapons they were sending from early on), again addressing what the Perun video said, they too are vital.

Seems that there may be progress on the north shore of the Dniepro river.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/ ... 6025549829

Lots of other chatter on this. Could be a significant development.

Geomap

Another
"Defense breakthrough in Dudchany, Kherson region. UA broke through with the forces of 17 tanks and 11 infantry fighting vehicles."

I was concerned on how effective Russian ATGM would be on UKR armor once Ukraine went on the offensive.

Apparently any potential threat is manageable.

bt

johns624 wrote:

Nine eastern and central European NATO members put out a joint statement supporting Ukraine and urging all NATO members to up their supplies. Like I've said in the past, the closer you are to the Bear, the bigger you know the threat is.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/9- ... c1ad5c937a

Indeed, it’s clear who is at a safe distance from the Bear…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/ukraine-bids-to-join-nato-despite-long-odds-against-wartime-move

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Friday reaffirmed the Biden administration’s position that Ukraine’s request to join NATO should be considered “at a different time.”

bikerthai wrote:

Another
"Defense breakthrough in Dudchany, Kherson region. UA broke through with the forces of 17 tanks and 11 infantry fighting vehicles."

I was concerned on how effective Russian ATGM would be on UKR armor once Ukraine went on the offensive.

Apparently any potential threat is manageable.

bt

Likely as affected by logistics, poor maintenance, poor training as everything else.

Meanwhile;
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/k ... as-annexed

Note the distressing image warning, I do find accounts of Russian warcrimes, the mass murders, deliberate targeting of non military areas, usually after they have been pushed out for pure spite, not any tactical reasons, distressing.
But dead Russian troops, nah, not bothered.
And if those unwilling that have been called up want a chance at redemption, surrender at the first chance, if an officer tries to stop you, shoot him. Or frag when sleeping and slip away.

mjgbtv wrote:

marcelh wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Nine eastern and central European NATO members put out a joint statement supporting Ukraine and urging all NATO members to up their supplies. Like I've said in the past, the closer you are to the Bear, the bigger you know the threat is.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/9- ... c1ad5c937a

Indeed, it’s clear who is at a safe distance from the Bear…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/ukraine-bids-to-join-nato-despite-long-odds-against-wartime-move

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Friday reaffirmed the Biden administration’s position that Ukraine’s request to join NATO should be considered “at a different time.”

Reading the original linked article I don't see where those 9 nations are advocating for an immediate admission for Ukraine either, so I am not sure that the US really has a different position. Those other countries were mostly advocating for more support and nobody can say the US is not doing that.

And let's face it - even the admission of Sweden and Finland wasn't without discussions from some countries.

Admitting Ukraine would cause even more negotiations, discussions etc.
I'm not quite sure the likes of Orban or Erdogan would be in favour much.

I see the NATO application more of a pre-agreed upon response from the West as a reaction to Putin annexation move.

All these media release from government are just them going thu the motion.

It doesn't really make a difference on the ground in the near future.

Although if Ukraine is admitted now, it would have largest most battle experienced ground force in NATO, including, do dare say, even the US?

bt

And Elon Musk has also an opinion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/xuo1pd/musk_claims_russia_should_keep_crimea_and_ukraine/

I guess we”ll see a special “Z” livery on every Tesla…

Elon Musk is a pretentious, self-important a-hole. His opinion is no more informed than a Hollywood or sports star's. He probably knows less about the Ukrainian situation than some of the posters here. He just has a bigger pulpit.
I think I know a reason that Putin did the annexations at this time. I think he thought that the Russian military would fight harder if they were defending "Mother Russia" land. He was wrong...

They have 'mislaid' another one of these things;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rru333btfNc

Here's the Ukrainian ambassador's response to Musk's advice...
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukr ... 10327.html

And for some dumb-ass reason Elon Musk decided he needed to stick his own thoughts into the situation.

Musk tweeted out a poll, asking respondents to weigh in on a series of proposals to obtain Ukraine-Russia peace: redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision and Russia leaves if that is the will of the people, Crimea remains part of Russia, water supply to Crimea is assured, and Ukraine remains neutral.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/uk ... n-invasion

The amount of dumb-assery in his "poll question" was exceedingly high. He is proving the rule that most geniuses to one thing are complete idiots at everything else.

I get it, Mr. Mush is trying to be "reasonable" but reasonable and war have nothing to do with each other. We are talking war, and murder, and invasion, and destruction. As well as national identity and pride and desire and resistance to being dictated to by a murderous madman.

I don't get the utter stupidity that Musk shows (all the time lately).

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

He is proving the rule that most geniuses to one thing are complete idiots at everything else.

There's being a genius, and there's being wise.

He may be one but not the other.

bt

johns624 wrote:

Here's the Ukrainian ambassador's response to Musk's advice...
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukr ... 10327.html

Elon Musk cares about Elon Musk..and that's all.

dalmit wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Here's the Ukrainian ambassador's response to Musk's advice...
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukr ... 10327.html

Elon Musk cares about Elon Musk..and that's all.

It seems like he just says and does stuff to keep his name in the news.

And a response from the President of Ukraine;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcvfHa ... 63niXQVY3z

johns624 wrote:

seems like he just says and does stuff to keep his name in the news.

Could have easily done that by donating more Starlink.

Or better yet, donate a bunch if cyber trucks.

Or have they not built enough CT yet?


bt