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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Nov 27, 2022 8:34 pm

art wrote:
A nearly one-to-one killed-to-wounded ratio—one to three is normal—speaks to the collapse of Russian leadership ... and to the cold. Wounded troops, lying exposed to the elements, are dying before anyone bothers to rescue them.

Expect many, many more Russians to freeze to death as the weather gets worse. As the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted on Saturday, temperatures are forecasted to drop throughout Ukraine over the next week.


If the writer is correct in saying that wounded Russian troops are not being rescued and are subsequently dying from exposure, it looks like things are going to get a lot worse for them with intense fighting in the east and 'human wave' tactics presumably leading to higher casualty rates than normal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... n-ukraine/


russian tac-med is reportedly an atrocity. Well-publicized videos of mobiks, being told by a caring but powerless official, to go load up on Tampax, to be able to close bullet wounds, are an illustration.

Ukrainian military are doing online "unpackage" of captured kit from time to time. They are gleeful when they grab guns or ammo, but very contemptuous, to the point of disbelieving laughs, when opening Russian medical kits. Tourniquets that don't work are among top contenders for the first nervous laugh on these videos. Fellas who saw battle and casualties, are probably trying to figure out, if they could rescue their wounded, if they had these medikits, and that's where nervous laugh comes from...

I wouldn't be surprised if this problem has consequences in casualty ratios.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:28 am

And if you have to tell mobiks to stock on medical stuff, what does that mean regarding medics, are there even medics in the Russian army ?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:14 am

Revelation wrote:
GDB wrote:
art wrote:
Signs of west running short of munitions to supply to Ukraine? According to this Indian station, Ukraine uses about 7,000 155mm shells a day but US production is about 15,000 155mm shells a month.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4b_yJPxruQ

I wonder if Ukraine will have to start cutting back on its use of western artillery, conserving ammunition stocks so sufficient shells are available to push for high value objectives as and when Ukraine deems the time is right to take them.
.

South Korea has signed to supply large quantities of 155mm, just the other day the UK pledged 20,000 more, on top of previous, so it's not the US supplying. Others too in NATO though production where they are made will need to be ramped up, both for Ukraine and their own arsenals.

It sounds impressive to donate 20,000 shells, but not so much when you do the math and realize that isn't even three days supply.

Also not so great to know the US can only supply two day's worth of shells per month.

CNN ( https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/11/politics ... ea-ukraine ) said Ukraine uses 4,000-7,000 shells a day, so the 7,000 number is the peak usage. It also said as of the 11th of November the South Korea deal was not signed.

Meanwhile, video evidence suggesting one GMLRS rocket in a flight of six GMRLS rockets was intercepted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76EJb1cxs2g


Aware of that, it’s to emphasize that not only the US are supplying. Given the huge amounts of tube artillery that are held by South Korea, whenever the ink is dry, the ammo should be on its way, one of the reasons Poland has ordered such huge quantities of equipment, aside from the technology transfer, are early delivery.
Also, if it is the case that Russia is looking to North Korea to supply the same, artillery ammo, then they have, inexplicably, supply issues too. It won’t be new, modern much less smart rounds. What happened to the ‘Red God Of War’, not worth having so many guns if they too are haven’t got matching useable stocks.
 
VolvoBus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:22 am

Aesma wrote:
And if you have to tell mobiks to stock on medical stuff, what does that mean regarding medics, are there even medics in the Russian army ?


If this article is true, the answer is 'possibly.'


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... f603a6d90e
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:50 am

Aesma wrote:
And if you have to tell mobiks to stock on medical stuff, what does that mean regarding medics, are there even medics in the Russian army ?


First aid is self-administered, or a comrade patches you up, before paramedic catches up with you and arranges evacuation and/or "reanimobil" to fix you, while getting to the true medical help. At least, that's what's been reality on Ukrainian side, for the last seven+ years of this war. That's why individually carried medikits are considered so critical.

And that's why Ukrainian tac-med is so critically important, and also very contentious. Ukrainian manufacturers and medical professionals and volunteers and paramedics and military experts have been on a vertical evolution slope in the meantime. Sometimes they shout at each other, till blue in the face, on which design solution is better. I saw a discussion on tourniquets, and my head spun on the amount of experience, distilled in years of warfighting, into multiple streams of competing designs, some of them having pros and cons, some dismissed outright. And that's only a corner of that discussion. Positioning of ampules in the bag, size of blood-stopping napkins, etc. etc. They really could debate this for hours, trying to achieve best outcome for the wounded.

When fellas on the frontline, drilled to use their own medikits, open a russian kit, where a rubber strip, made in 1985, masquerades as a tourniquet, of course they have doubts whether medical help on the other side even exists...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:53 pm

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-11-28/

U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine


I posted about this weapon way up thread.

It doesn't have the range of ATACM, but it does have the ability to adjust its flight path.

"360 degree attack"

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-la ... bomb-glsdb

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:36 pm

Resisting when Khershon was occupied;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... russia-war

A resistance better known going back a decade, we were warned about Putin;
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/ ... ting-putin

From the battlefront;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3Xj1DxgQI0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTSL0ICE3Q4

To add to bikerthai's post;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMa7jCXVljQ
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:29 pm

GDB wrote:
Aware of that, it’s to emphasize that not only the US are supplying. Given the huge amounts of tube artillery that are held by South Korea, whenever the ink is dry, the ammo should be on its way, one of the reasons Poland has ordered such huge quantities of equipment, aside from the technology transfer, are early delivery.
Also, if it is the case that Russia is looking to North Korea to supply the same, artillery ammo, then they have, inexplicably, supply issues too. It won’t be new, modern much less smart rounds. What happened to the ‘Red God Of War’, not worth having so many guns if they too are haven’t got matching useable stocks.

It seems the Russian supplies mostly pre-date the end of the cold war.

I think NATO was thinking more of precision guided munitions delivered by air more so than tube artillery.

I don't think either side was thinking in terms of many months of siege warfare yet this is where the current terms of engagement have led us.

I am somewhat surprised by NK not having ready supplies of artillery, it was always theorized they would react to any threat by walls of lead.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
GDB wrote:
Aware of that, it’s to emphasize that not only the US are supplying. Given the huge amounts of tube artillery that are held by South Korea, whenever the ink is dry, the ammo should be on its way, one of the reasons Poland has ordered such huge quantities of equipment, aside from the technology transfer, are early delivery.
Also, if it is the case that Russia is looking to North Korea to supply the same, artillery ammo, then they have, inexplicably, supply issues too. It won’t be new, modern much less smart rounds. What happened to the ‘Red God Of War’, not worth having so many guns if they too are haven’t got matching useable stocks.

It seems the Russian supplies mostly pre-date the end of the cold war.

I think NATO was thinking more of precision guided munitions delivered by air more so than tube artillery.

I don't think either side was thinking in terms of many months of siege warfare yet this is where the current terms of engagement have led us.

I am somewhat surprised by NK not having ready supplies of artillery, it was always theorized they would react to any threat by walls of lead.


Yes, there is also the smarter munitions, while Russia will have them too, as with much else, for them their utility is lessened by the slower, top down command and control, meaning longer 'kill chain' and without the intel support NATO is giving Ukraine.
At least two types of 155mm ammo like this, as supplied since the war, are in the Ukrainian inventory, thus making for at times, much less ammo consumption.

Plus the generally more accurate modern Western systems, I note that the M777 suppliers have had the sense to follow up with spare barrels too, if it is the case that the Pzh2000's have been undergoing much needed maintenance after extensive use, then the muddy season is the best time, once the freeze sets in however...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKOsAiviPog

Intercepted Russian call, seems like, and this is not the first one I've heard, that Russian shells are all too often hitting their own positions;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLNBIq_5xzA

The grim aftermath, you have to wonder if these Russians will be sent to loved ones or end up being cremated secretly, or as 'secret' as our modern, connected age will allow;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSo7AVDEko4
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:52 am

On the frontline, in the trenches;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i-BsJq1gTs

Some Russians who avoided conscription;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk10LIbEcI0
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:52 am

Wives of Russian troops 'encourage' them to rape Ukrainian women, Ukraine's first lady says

Olena Zelenska, 44, was speaking in London at an international conference to tackle sexual violence during conflicts.


https://news.sky.com/story/wives-of-rus ... s-12757474

What is the evidence to support this accusation? In the absence of persuasive evidence that significant numbers of wives of Russian soldiers are urging their husbands to rape Ukrainian women, I would see this as Ukrainian propaganda.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:55 am

Revelation wrote:
GDB wrote:
Aware of that, it’s to emphasize that not only the US are supplying. Given the huge amounts of tube artillery that are held by South Korea, whenever the ink is dry, the ammo should be on its way, one of the reasons Poland has ordered such huge quantities of equipment, aside from the technology transfer, are early delivery.
Also, if it is the case that Russia is looking to North Korea to supply the same, artillery ammo, then they have, inexplicably, supply issues too. It won’t be new, modern much less smart rounds. What happened to the ‘Red God Of War’, not worth having so many guns if they too are haven’t got matching useable stocks.

It seems the Russian supplies mostly pre-date the end of the cold war.

I think NATO was thinking more of precision guided munitions delivered by air more so than tube artillery.

I don't think either side was thinking in terms of many months of siege warfare yet this is where the current terms of engagement have led us.

I am somewhat surprised by NK not having ready supplies of artillery, it was always theorized they would react to any threat by walls of lead.


NKs walls of lead are somewhat their strategic deterrent and were for a long time their mutual assurance of destruction because they are able to shell Seoul and even more so Incheon including the airport. So I guess they will be very reluctant to diminish their arsenal too much.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:23 pm

art wrote:
I would see this as Ukrainian propaganda.


Propraganda is much more effective when there is truth behind it.

I concur that the Russian "wives" encouraging the raping of Ukrainian women may be overblown, but we have phone intercepted audio of the conversations, so the premise can not be dismissed.

This can happens when a society have not matured from their basic instict. I recall there were much horrendous sexual brutality during the Balkan war.

The Eastern Europe society is slowly moving toward Western Europe sensibilities. But as we know, these transformation can take generations. Russia will be the last to move forward.

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:30 pm

From the very front line;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL7six9nIq8

Not sure if this should be on the hobby page!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3NhN4ooVUQ

I haven't linked podcast on here, there are plenty some I cannot say how reliable they are (without listening to them all!)
However, heard this one yesterday, timely, with a guest who has been there and Saul David is a respected military historian;
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir ... ce=w_share
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:18 pm

art wrote:
Wives of Russian troops 'encourage' them to rape Ukrainian women, Ukraine's first lady says

Olena Zelenska, 44, was speaking in London at an international conference to tackle sexual violence during conflicts.


https://news.sky.com/story/wives-of-rus ... s-12757474

What is the evidence to support this accusation? In the absence of persuasive evidence that significant numbers of wives of Russian soldiers are urging their husbands to rape Ukrainian women, I would see this as Ukrainian propaganda.


What sort of number are you looking for? Is "more than zero" enough? or you look for some statistic as in percentage of russian soldier wives doing this?
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:34 pm

NATO commits to future Ukraine membership, drums up aid

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e6a29c859c

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the military alliance’s commitment to Ukraine on Tuesday, saying that the war-torn nation will one day become a member of the world’s largest security organization.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:16 pm

Avengers going, presumably this is a first batch, also useful near the battlefield (where inbound drones could well be encountered);
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn5BiB_KrBw

The answer to the question posed at the end of this is 'yes', towards the end of the 1991 Gulf War, I recall seeing the drone footage on a documentary however not found it as yet;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuZvLgI3bNc

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AAI_RQ-2_Pioneer

While much attention has been on the higher tech systems, often it's modern iterations of more traditional weapons doing the hard yards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDiWjgHNZd4

Considering this is a British designed weapon, adopted by the US, not however in the UK inventory, I suspect some envious Royal Artillery gunners are seeing all this.

(Maybe this will be revised, the RN won't now have to wait years between Harpoon leaving service next year and an undisclosed replacement, as the Norwegian Strike Missile has been brought to enter service next year, you have to wonder if what happened to the Moskva and the raised threat level in general has caused this?)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:49 pm

Interesting article from The Moscow Times:

Widow Claims Russian Officer Killed Himself Due to Mobilization Pressure

The widow of a Russian colonel who shot himself at a conscription center in the Russian Far East earlier this month has blamed his suicide on the pressure he was put under during the Kremlin's recent mobilization drive.
...
Having been instructed to repair faulty equipment, Boyko was reportedly summoned to a training facility for a dressing down by his superiors who accused him of being personally responsible for the equipment's malfunction.

"The inspectors had already openly informed Colonel Boyko that for the loss and damage to state property, more than 100 million rubles of debts would be passed on to him and he would be punished with confiscation of property," Yulia Boyko wrote in her letter.

Feeling the pressure, Boyko entered his superior's office on Nov. 16 and shot himself five times in the chest with a pistol, in what his widow claims was a direct appeal to the authorities to address the issues created by mobilization.

I bet the same superiors were the ones that were pocketing the money that was supposed to be spent on maintaining that state property.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from The Moscow Times:

Widow Claims Russian Officer Killed Himself Due to Mobilization Pressure

The widow of a Russian colonel who shot himself at a conscription center in the Russian Far East earlier this month has blamed his suicide on the pressure he was put under during the Kremlin's recent mobilization drive.
...
Having been instructed to repair faulty equipment, Boyko was reportedly summoned to a training facility for a dressing down by his superiors who accused him of being personally responsible for the equipment's malfunction.

"The inspectors had already openly informed Colonel Boyko that for the loss and damage to state property, more than 100 million rubles of debts would be passed on to him and he would be punished with confiscation of property," Yulia Boyko wrote in her letter.

Feeling the pressure, Boyko entered his superior's office on Nov. 16 and shot himself five times in the chest with a pistol, in what his widow claims was a direct appeal to the authorities to address the issues created by mobilization.

I bet the same superiors were the ones that were pocketing the money that was supposed to be spent on maintaining that state property.


russia is an incredible place
(Boyko last name, by the way, mean Ukrainian ethnicity, at least on paternal side)
A colonel, disagreeing with his superior officer, to the point of entering his office with a gun, and discharging the weapon FIVE times. And all bullets directed at himself? I mean, what kind of colonel is he? At least four bullets should have been in the body of his superior, if he were an officer of any dignity. But russia probably manages to corrupt even that, final act of a senior officer (just one step short of a flag rank, huh?).
 
 
kelval
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:43 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Interesting article from The Moscow Times:

Widow Claims Russian Officer Killed Himself Due to Mobilization Pressure

The widow of a Russian colonel who shot himself at a conscription center in the Russian Far East earlier this month has blamed his suicide on the pressure he was put under during the Kremlin's recent mobilization drive.
...
Having been instructed to repair faulty equipment, Boyko was reportedly summoned to a training facility for a dressing down by his superiors who accused him of being personally responsible for the equipment's malfunction.

"The inspectors had already openly informed Colonel Boyko that for the loss and damage to state property, more than 100 million rubles of debts would be passed on to him and he would be punished with confiscation of property," Yulia Boyko wrote in her letter.

Feeling the pressure, Boyko entered his superior's office on Nov. 16 and shot himself five times in the chest with a pistol, in what his widow claims was a direct appeal to the authorities to address the issues created by mobilization.

I bet the same superiors were the ones that were pocketing the money that was supposed to be spent on maintaining that state property.


russia is an incredible place
(Boyko last name, by the way, mean Ukrainian ethnicity, at least on paternal side)
A colonel, disagreeing with his superior officer, to the point of entering his office with a gun, and discharging the weapon FIVE times. And all bullets directed at himself? I mean, what kind of colonel is he? At least four bullets should have been in the body of his superior, if he were an officer of any dignity. But russia probably manages to corrupt even that, final act of a senior officer (just one step short of a flag rank, huh?).


He must have had quite the willpower to shoot himself 5 times in the chest.
Or someone had enough willpower to help .
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:17 pm

GDB wrote:


Slightly longer summaries of the links would be appreciated. The amount given doesn't help me decide whether to bother following the links.

The first is about the the continuing Russia offsensive toward the city of Bakhmut. It's one of a handful of location in the east where Russia has continued offensive operations even as they lose ground elsewhere, and perhaps the best example of the futility of this war. Russia has been beating their heads against a brick wall there for months. They're gradually wearing down the bricks, but my stomach churns to think of the cost of doing so. Here's a selection of ISW comments on it going back to this summer:

1 month ago:
A Russian information operation is advancing the narrative that Russian forces are making significant progress in Bakhmut...Prigozhin acknowledged the slow pace of Wagner Group ground operations around Bakhmut on October 23 and stated that Wagner forces advance only 100-200m per day, which he absurdly claimed was a normal rate for modern advances.


2 months ago
A Russian military correspondent claimed that Ukrainian troops are retreating further into Bakhmut itself


3 months ago
Several Russian milbloggers amplified claims that Russian troops are fighting to fully consolidate control of the entirety of Kodema and use this position to launch attacks northward onto Bakhmut.


4 months ago
Russian command is likely, therefore, seeking to maintain momentum around Bakhmut


5 months ago
These limited gains around Bakhmut may indicate that Russian forces may soon seek to set conditions for an offensive operation towards Bakhmut itself


6 months ago
Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations on Bakhmut


ISW reported they captured the nearby town of Svitlodarsk in late May. They reached the town of Optyne within the last 2 weeks. Those towns are 19 km apart. They've averaged roughly a football pitch worth of progress per day.

Many social media posters have been sharing photos from around Bakhmut similar to these. This specific link includes some from WWI for comparison:
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status ... 2696938498
 
astuteman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:26 am

GDB wrote:
While much attention has been on the higher tech systems, often it's modern iterations of more traditional weapons doing the hard yards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDiWjgHNZd4

Considering this is a British designed weapon, adopted by the US, not however in the UK inventory, I suspect some envious Royal Artillery gunners are seeing all this.

(Maybe this will be revised, the RN won't now have to wait years between Harpoon leaving service next year and an undisclosed replacement, as the Norwegian Strike Missile has been brought to enter service next year, you have to wonder if what happened to the Moskva and the raised threat level in general has caused this?)


I still find it gutting that such a brilliant piece of private venture engineering by VSEL in its heyday wasn't and isn't better recognised by the UK military.
Some amazing Engineers and Manufacturing Engineers to bring it to life ..

Rgds
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:49 pm

Just to ensure no lack of description, the following is a photo report, with text, on the effects of the weather on Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hoto-essay
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:37 pm

astuteman wrote:
GDB wrote:
While much attention has been on the higher tech systems, often it's modern iterations of more traditional weapons doing the hard yards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDiWjgHNZd4

Considering this is a British designed weapon, adopted by the US, not however in the UK inventory, I suspect some envious Royal Artillery gunners are seeing all this.

(Maybe this will be revised, the RN won't now have to wait years between Harpoon leaving service next year and an undisclosed replacement, as the Norwegian Strike Missile has been brought to enter service next year, you have to wonder if what happened to the Moskva and the raised threat level in general has caused this?)


I still find it gutting that such a brilliant piece of private venture engineering by VSEL in its heyday wasn't and isn't better recognised by the UK military.
Some amazing Engineers and Manufacturing Engineers to bring it to life ..

Rgds

I followed up by reading:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M777_howitzer

Very interesting history. Mentions updated version firing rocket-assisted shells to double the battery's range. Also:

A Ukrainian officer said in October 2022 that while M777 has to be towed, and has a lower fire rate than the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 and French CAESAR, it is more accurate and easier to use. BAe stated that month that it was discussing with the United States restarting production of the weapon, after good performance in Ukraine and lower cost of operation caused other nations to ask about purchasing it.

I think this war has shown how effective modern artillery can be. Aircraft are hugely expensive and require extensive facilities and a huge logistics trail. Modern artillery is quite precise, much less cost, and can stay on-target for a long time.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:51 pm

GDB wrote:
Just to ensure no lack of description, the following is a photo report, with text, on the effects of the weather on Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hoto-essay


My $0.02 on descriptive links: ideally use the "link" symbol in the post editor to create a "url" macro where you can just copy/paste the article/video's title into the link:

https://www.bbcode.org/creating-links-with-bbcode.php

Again, I say that's the ideal way to do it. It takes a few extra steps (copy/paste both the url and the title means going back and forth to the article twice) but it is a lot more helpful than just posting the raw url. I do this in some cases where hovering over the url doesn't give a decent idea of what the article is all about. I don't do this in many cases out of laziness.

Example:

Onset of winter in Ukraine – a photo essay
 
hh65man
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
GDB wrote:
Just to ensure no lack of description, the following is a photo report, with text, on the effects of the weather on Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hoto-essay


My $0.02 on descriptive links: ideally use the "link" symbol in the post editor to create a "url" macro where you can just copy/paste the article/video's title into the link:

https://www.bbcode.org/creating-links-with-bbcode.php

Again, I say that's the ideal way to do it. It takes a few extra steps (copy/paste both the url and the title means going back and forth to the article twice) but it is a lot more helpful than just posting the raw url. I do this in some cases where hovering over the url doesn't give a decent idea of what the article is all about. I don't do this in many cases out of laziness.

Example:

Onset of winter in Ukraine – a photo essay


Those photos are beyond shocking, just heartbreaking to the core. Well Vlad, hope you’re proud of yourself, your days have got to be numbered.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:56 pm

Analysis shows that russian bomber forces are no longer dispersed, but are concentrating at Engels and Shaykovka, again:
https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ ... -9817.html
A bit older analysis (there's a lag in translation, so in English it's published today; Ukrainian version was online yesterday).
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/over ... -4996.html

It's definitely a good time to take out both airbases, for good, together with everything that moves. However, we still don't have Tomahawks for the job, and were forced to scrap our own kit under those idiotic treaties like
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermedi ... ces_Treaty
and even crazier "de-nucleriasation" of Ukraine, that took away all the remaining indigenous capability...
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:38 pm

This is new, to me at least, Ukrainian S-125 SAM's (NATO SA-3), in the anti shipping role, something which began a couple of years ago;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOlwrCQH3kU

Supplementing the news on the supply of Brimstone series missiles, with an update;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JuwtoPU5eM

Away from direct weapons, a helpline set up by Ukraine for Russian soldiers to assist in their surrendering;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEXeLynvnLI

More outstanding front line reporting from Channel 4, the artillery war around Bakmut;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ey2R5gJ2OT0

On the issue of help with generators, transformers etc, am I right in remembering that concerns about energy made Germany in particular stock up on generators? That since, the effort to be far less reliant and avoid problems this winter has been successful with LNG stocks and other measures?
If so, all those generators are going spare...
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:38 pm

GDB wrote:
Just to ensure no lack of description, the following is a photo report, with text, on the effects of the weather on Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hoto-essay


Thank you. That is a helpful level of detail.

I don't envy the soldiers on either side for the cold they will be facing, but I certainly do hope it makes it more difficult for Russia to maintain combat effectiveness. Life is going to be very rough in the trenches.

I was relieved to learn recently that wood stoves are still very common in Ukrainian homes, but that article clarifies that a lot of people live in flats with centralized heating systems. They're more dependent on utilities being restored to keep warm.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:02 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
GDB wrote:
Just to ensure no lack of description, the following is a photo report, with text, on the effects of the weather on Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... hoto-essay


Thank you. That is a helpful level of detail.

I don't envy the soldiers on either side for the cold they will be facing, but I certainly do hope it makes it more difficult for Russia to maintain combat effectiveness. Life is going to be very rough in the trenches.

I was relieved to learn recently that wood stoves are still very common in Ukrainian homes, but that article clarifies that a lot of people live in flats with centralized heating systems. They're more dependent on utilities being restored to keep warm.

As long as you live in a village (and that's around 30% of population), the wood stove is a standard accessory of a pre-1991 house, and a likely accessory of a more modern house.
Ukrainian urban dwelling basically rules out wood stoves. Pollution in the cities was high enough with industries, massively built up in Soviet era, typically lacking environmental protection of any sort.
So they tried to eliminate soot and smoke from (often incompetently operated) home solid fuel stoves, basically banning them wherever they still existed, retrofitting homes for central heating. And new buildings were constructed to be heated centrally too, most typically with waste steam from cogeneration utilities. You would have very little luck finding 1945-1991 city apartment building, with wood stoves. Probably 1992-2021 era same.

So while some city dwellers might still have wood stoves, they are a very small minority.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:12 am

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndepend ... 7696651266

Good God that is a staggering figure for Ukrainian casualties. Those losses are simply not sustainable.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:23 am

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1597928157696651266

Good God that is a staggering figure for Ukrainian casualties. Those losses are simply not sustainable.
Apparently, they are sustainable. Basically because they have no choice. What are the Russian figures? What is your solution?
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:55 am

[quote="alberchico"]https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1597928157696651266

Good God that is a staggering figure for Ukrainian casualties. Those losses are simply not sustainable.[/quote

In 1968 North Vietnam had a population of 18.7 million. South Vietnam had 16.2 million - a percentage of which fought for the VC.

In the year alone, over 200,000 NVA and VC troops were reportedly KIA. That's not including wounded.

Estimates are that 1.1 million NVA and VC soldiers were KIA during the course of the conflict until their ultimate victory.

Ukraine had a population of about 44 million at the start of the war.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:55 am

alberchico wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1597928157696651266

Good God that is a staggering figure for Ukrainian casualties. Those losses are simply not sustainable.


Ukraine's General Staff have been daily reporting their estimate of Russian casualties, and claim the count is over 88,000. The way they discuss it, I have always understood it to be the claimed number of deaths, rather than dead and wounded as referenced in the above link.

However, western estimates have been lower. US General Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently stated a figure for Russian casualties of over 100,000 killed and wounded combined. That's the same figure that EU president von der Leyen mentioned, which suggests a figure more like 25,000+ deaths. That would make the Ukrainian estimates consistent with simply tallying up what their battlefield commanders report up the chain of command, but not going back and correcting those figures if better intel becomes available. I have observed as a historical tendency for those in combat to overestimate the losses they inflict on their opponents by a factor of 2-3 compared to what is determined by analysts after the dust from a particular operation settles. On the other hand, as some have suggested above, there is speculation that Russia has not had effective battlefield medical support, and may be experiencing worse than the 3:1 ratio of wounded to killed often reported in modern combat.

Overall, General Milley suggested the military casualty numbers are similar on both sides, and that additionally, 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been wounded or killed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/mo ... 022-11-10/

Definitely not sustainable, but I guess to try to take a less pessimistic outlook on it, it's nowhere near as bad as WWII was.
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:25 am

The Economist has posted a summary of: “Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022”.
They normally have a paywall, but I got to read the article just by registering.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/1 ... ern-armies

The article plays down the Javelin and Bayraktar contributions.
What blunted the Russians north of Kyiv was two brigades of artillery firing all their barrels every day.


It is well worth reading, I got the link from the Daily Kos.
 
JJJ
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Re: Musk, Twitter News and Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:31 am

Von der Leyen announced the EU is blocking 300 billion Russian Central Bank reserves + 19b of Russian oligarch money and threatened to seize them to fund the reconstruction of Ukaine's economy.

https://www.globalconstructionreview.co ... d-ukraine/
 
Vintage
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Re: Musk, Twitter News and Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:29 am

JJJ wrote:
Von der Leyen announced the EU is blocking 300 billion Russian Central Bank reserves + 19b of Russian oligarch money and threatened to seize them to fund the reconstruction of Ukaine's economy.

https://www.globalconstructionreview.co ... d-ukraine/
I like the way von der Leyen talks: “we have the means to make Russia pay”!

Meanwhile, Russia says it will focus on building nuclear arms infrastructure in 2023.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-11-30/

Makes me think Putin is taking Russia down the Jim Jones path.
That message needs to be sent to the Russian people.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Musk, Twitter News and Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:10 am

JJJ wrote:
Von der Leyen announced the EU is blocking 300 billion Russian Central Bank reserves + 19b of Russian oligarch money and threatened to seize them to fund the reconstruction of Ukaine's economy.

https://www.globalconstructionreview.co ... d-ukraine/


Wrong thread, maybe?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:58 pm

Vintage wrote:
The Economist has posted a summary of: “Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022”.
They normally have a paywall, but I got to read the article just by registering.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/1 ... ern-armies

The article plays down the Javelin and Bayraktar contributions.
What blunted the Russians north of Kyiv was two brigades of artillery firing all their barrels every day.


It is well worth reading, I got the link from the Daily Kos.

Yes, pretty interesting article. It kind of echos what I wrote earlier in this thread:

Revelation wrote:
I think this war has shown how effective modern artillery can be. Aircraft are hugely expensive and require extensive facilities and a huge logistics trail. Modern artillery is quite precise, much less cost, and can stay on-target for a long time.

The article points out no one (east or west) is able to sustain this amount of artillery very long. My thought was that air would be more active, but as I wrote above, that is problematic. I guess the air forces just have very good PR departments, armies less so.
 
JJJ
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Re: Musk, Twitter News and Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:54 pm

Francoflier wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Von der Leyen announced the EU is blocking 300 billion Russian Central Bank reserves + 19b of Russian oligarch money and threatened to seize them to fund the reconstruction of Ukaine's economy.

https://www.globalconstructionreview.co ... d-ukraine/


Wrong thread, maybe?


Very much :D

Can any mod help move it?
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
I guess the air forces just have very good PR departments, armies less so.
You can say that again, I don't know where the Air Force gets so much clout around budget time. The useless F-15EX comes to mind; 15 Billion would have bought a lot of artillery. How much does 1,000 F-16s cost?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 5:55 pm

Vintage wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I guess the air forces just have very good PR departments, armies less so.
You can say that again, I don't know where the Air Force gets so much clout around budget time. The useless F-15EX comes to mind; 15 Billion would have bought a lot of artillery. How much does 1,000 F-16s cost?


People go to air shows, that’s public perception, then there is when the West last used artillery in a major way. The 1991 Gulf War, even then it played second fiddle to the long air campaign that preceded it.
We had the stocks and tubes then too, the Cold War had effectively ended but the drawdown had not started, for example, the UK essentially stripped the 55,000 man British Army Of The Rhine of spares and ammo, to sustain first an Armoured Brigade, by the time of the conflict starting, a full Division, in the Gulf, much of that came from Germany too.

For the Royal Artillery, the first use of the MLRS, first and last of the M110A2 - a shame NATO don’t have it seems the latter in store to send to Ukraine.
First and last of the M109A2 for the UK forces, to get updated ones to Ukraine we have none, we have sourced and aided Norway and after some delays, Belgium, to pull their stored ones.

Staying in the UK, ask about the greatest heroes of WW2, chances are the answer will be the Battle of Britain pilots.
Which is not unreasonable, though the real preventative measure for any invasion was the out of sight Royal Navy, who also with the civil merchant marine, not only sustained the war but with the Royal Canadian Navy and USN, got the men and materiel across the pond.

Generally speaking, for most WW2 was about tanks and aircraft, artillery not so much, with exceptions like the 88mm, despite the greater damage and casualties they caused. Everything from howitzers to mortars.

With Ukraine, if it is coming from outside of continental Europe, its coming by air.
Should the US decide to supply stored M1’s and Bradley’s, sea lift will be needed to get them to Europe.
If they do that, while the vehicles may be ones the US will never use again, the issue of ammunition will be greater, I am presuming that production is being increased, same for NATO nations, for stocking up so allowing a more constant flow of re-supply for Ukraine?

More on that hybrid small diameter bomb/MLRS system, shame the contracts mentioned were not signed before, this will be a very useful system and reduce artillery shell expenditure;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiwWPQVcrgw
 
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SQ22
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Re: Musk, Twitter News and Discussion Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:00 pm

JJJ wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Von der Leyen announced the EU is blocking 300 billion Russian Central Bank reserves + 19b of Russian oligarch money and threatened to seize them to fund the reconstruction of Ukaine's economy.

https://www.globalconstructionreview.co ... d-ukraine/


Wrong thread, maybe?


Very much :D

Can any mod help move it?


Done. Please use the reporting function next time.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:23 pm

Russia is now using nuclear-capable missiles with non-explosive warheads to exhaust Ukraine's air defences.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63826082

Looks like they are running out of stock.
 
GDB
Posts: 16598
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:57 pm

Justin Bronk of the RUSI again, this time going into more detail with Kris from Military Aviation History, on his report on airpower in the Ukraine war, in this thread in Mil Av and Space;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1470693&p=23563881#p23563881
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:55 pm

I know I’m like a broken record on this but the lesson is that 4 TH gen AC are almost worthless against even semi modern AD.

If Ukraine had one operational squadron of F35 the Russians never would have crossed the border.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:50 am

Planeflyer wrote:
I know I’m like a broken record on this but the lesson is that 4 TH gen AC are almost worthless against even semi modern AD.

If Ukraine had one operational squadron of F35 the Russians never would have crossed the border.


If you are right... or if you are wrong... the time to decide to do this was 2014, I think. Did not happen.

My argument since the invasion is that the EU was negligent in failing to ensure it would be extremely costly for Russia to invade. Did not happen. Now Europe is paying a fortune for leaving Ukraine very vulnerable to attack and Russia has occupied much more Ukrainian territory than would have been the case with a better armed Ukraine - regardless of whether Ukraine had F-35 or not.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:21 am

A British defence and security think tank has revealed details of Moscow's pre-invasion plan for Ukraine, based on captured Russian documents apparently signed off by Vladimir Putin.

Russia had planned to take over Ukraine over 10 days and annex it by August this year, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) said.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12759836

UK is retiring 14 C-130J with lots of hours left on them in the very near future. Since the UK is very short of very dry deserts for storage of retired aircraft, it disposes of them. The C-130 aircraft being withdrawn from service could be sold, scrapped or given away. Would they be of any use to Ukraine, either during the war or after? I'm thinking that Ukraine will need an airlift capability in the future, if not now.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/plans-t ... e-to-cost/
 
Vintage
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fri Dec 02, 2022 2:57 am

art wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
I know I’m like a broken record on this but the lesson is that 4 TH gen AC are almost worthless against even semi modern AD.
If Ukraine had one operational squadron of F35 the Russians never would have crossed the border.


If you are right... or if you are wrong... the time to decide to do this was 2014, I think. Did not happen.
I think you are missing Planeflyer's point. The time to do something about this is now, and it is a situation that exists in the US Airforce. Ukraine was just used as an example.

We continue to fly over 1,800 4th gen fighter type aircraft, which are all but useless against any real threat to the US.

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