Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

iamlucky13 · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:22 am

art wrote:
GDB wrote:
As that contributor stated, they will likely send experienced tankers, though having no auto loader, a larger crew will be very new to them.
But then so will having a much more survivable tank, with way better optics, sensors, ergonomics and you can brew up a hot beverage inside a Challenger!

Switching from an autoloader to a human loader cannot present much of a problem, surely? Given a month to practice going through the motions a thousand times even I would pretty proficient, I think.

No, it won't be a significant problem. The extra crew members will be a challenge for Ukraine in terms of basic manpower, but training them for the role will not be. New tank crew members generally get assigned to either the loader or driver role.

Based on what US tankers have written elsewhere, the 5-6 weeks of training will include repetitive drilling on all the functions of operating the tank. The loader will drill just like the driver, gunner, and commander. They should complete training able to do all of those tasks entirely by routine, without thinking about it. Their mental capacity can be reserved for the tasks of getting the tank where the platoon or company commander needs it, when he needs it there. They will have practiced operating the tank enough that it will no longer be an armored vehicle with 4 individuals inside, but a single system for which those 4 are closely linked parts of the whole.

That's the ideal anyways. I don't know if they have enough time to reach the same level of proficiency as US crews. They also have to train on the routine maintenance and basic repairs. And I'm skeptical they will have much time at all to train in combined arms and coordinated maneuver tactics. That last part is why it will be most effective if they have previously trained tank crews available to assign.

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:31 am

ThePointblank wrote:

In a protracted war, supply and logistics play a much larger role than individual technical advantages or disadvantages.

While production numbers of the Leopard 2 are very high, with a broad user community that has functioning training and logistics chains, there is a ton of national variants of the Leopard 2, and not all parts from one variant is compatible with another variant, despite looking identical from the outside. A German Leopard 2A6 is not identical to a Greek Leopard 2A6HEL, which isn't identical to a Spanish 2A6E or a Canadian A6M CAN.

There are larger and smaller differences between each variant which make logistics very difficult. In order for the Ukrainians to effectively manage the fleet, they would need to pull together enough of one variant to fill a battalion, or roughly 40 tanks.

The most relevant versions for Ukraine are the A4, A5 and partly A6 versions. The A4 is the oldest and least capable of the three, but has the most numbers produced, and the least national variants out there. This variant is so old, that attempting major upgrades to the fire control systems, the armour, and firepower may not be feasible from both a financial and technical standpoint because this variant is so old.

The A5 and A6 variants remedy the resulting deficits in protection, fire control and firepower to varying degrees. However, these again have larger differences between the national, which would require that either an attempt be made to try to convert whatever tanks can be gathered into a single variant, or require that users give up a large portion of their fleet to Ukraine.

You'll need a lot of cooperation between the various Leopard 2 user community to create a pool of common tanks that the Ukrainians can make use of, and support them in the long term, which is a major sticking point right now. Without the prospect of a replacement (preferably superior to what is donated to Ukraine), you will only get low quantities of Leopards donated. No army wants to give up all of their tanks at once and lose an ability for years.

Not only that, for the Ukrainians, going from the various Soviet/Russian/Ukrainian T-model tanks to the Leopard 2 is a big leap in terms of the learning curve. The Ukrainians would need to become comfortable operating and logistically supporting a tank that is 20-30 tons heavier than what they currently operate. While the firepower and protection is higher than what they currently operate, the Leopard 2 is correspondingly significantly heavier and has a much higher ground pressure. They will have to get used to this and will have to reassess sections of the terrain as what might be passable by a T-series tank might cause a heavier Leopard 2 to be bogged down. They will also need heavier bridging and recovery vehicles, and other combat engineering assets to support a bigger, heavier tank as well.

What you write is rather deflating but thanks for the info.

iamlucky13 · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:38 am

Revelation wrote:
So, what happened to that grand speech Putler was supposed to make today?

I searched the news sources and found nothing that matched the predictions, just Putler talking to factory workers.

Ref: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/putin-c ... s-say.html

It was a rumor, I think based on reading between the lines of other news: Shoigu just confirmed plans to increase the permanent size of the Russian military yesterday. Talk of another round of mobilization has been regularly circulating, and the Ukraine Ministry of Defense has claimed the plan is 500,000 additional conscripts (it's hard to say if they have any actual concrete intel, or if they are playing up the speculation to pressure Europe and the US to provide more defense aid more quickly, and deepen civil unrest in Russia). The speech today is not only in Putin's hometown, but is on the anniversary of the day the Soviet army broke Germany's siege of that city in WWII, and Putin has a well-established pattern of making major announcements on patriotically symbolic dates.

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:40 am

tomcat wrote:
The only concerns I read about the GLSDB is that it is more susceptible of being intercepted than HIMAR rockets due to its relatively slow flying speed (gliding at about 400mph after the propulsion phase is over).

3 thoughts.

1) After the boost phase, the bomb actually detatch from the rocket, so it would present a smaller radar signature, so should be harder to detect.

2) Because it has wings, the glide bomb can maneuver and come in at different trajectories. The maneuvering does reduce the range though.

3) The terminal stage can actually be guided. So if SF or targeting drones are in the area, they can actually engage moving targets.

bt

par13del · Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:42 am

So Russia was able to close the door before too many of their military age males fled the country? Based on news at the time of the last conscription, the outlets made it appear as if the numbers fleeing were significant.

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:48 am

More pressure being put on Germany, rightly or wrongly, this time by the European Parliament:

The European Parliament has adopted today the 2022 report on the implementation of the Common Security and Defence Policy, which, in particular, includes an appeal to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to repel Russian aggression.

Ref: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... raine.html

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:15 am

par13del wrote:
So Russia was able to close the door before too many of their military age males fled the country? Based on news at the time of the last conscription, the outlets made it appear as if the numbers fleeing were significant.

That's another benefit of "stealth conscription", they're just taking men continuously without a big event setting off a panic. It turns out the last conscription was not terminated in a legal sense even though it met its targets. They're just setting new targets and keeping the ball rolling. They did say a few weeks ago that they were constructing new lists of who was eligible to be drafted, and it appears people on this list aren't going to be allowed to leave the country. I recall even at the end of the last wave that they were blocking people from leaving who were on the draft lists. It sounds like those who are outside the country right now evading the draft may have some problems facing them if they should need to return to Russia for any reason, yet I haven'f found a good discussion of that particular aspect of the problem.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:42 am

Revelation wrote:
Holy simplified narratives, man!

Actually no – my post flew over your head in multiple ways at the same time already and you should really cool off quite a bit before posting again.

I only and specifically addressed the point of which forces were instrumental in the defeat of the Third Reich, and there it is simply absurd to omit the Soviet Union's role since that was in fact crucial.

That Stalin was basically on the same level as Hitler himself needed mentioning at the same time and I did in fact do that in summary:

Klaus wrote:
Even while Stalin added his own extra horrors to that throughout his rule!

So this conclusion of yours is completely absurd, obviously and blatantly false, and highly offensive on top:

I really wonder what makes you support Stalin so much. It's as if your education on these times is surprisingly lacking, as if you followed a deliberately whitewashed curriculum.

This is such an egregious misrepresentation of my post combined with a completely unwarranted personal attack that it requires an apology.

I had merely opted not to roll out the entire panorama of WWII in my compact and specific correction of the original poster's pretty massive oversight but still keeping the perspective at the correct proportions.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:54 am

ThePointblank wrote:
You'll need a lot of cooperation between the various Leopard 2 user community to create a pool of common tanks that the Ukrainians can make use of, and support them in the long term, which is a major sticking point right now.

Yes, which adds to the need for coordination instead of just a drip, drip of smaller, uncoordinated supplies – my main point!

This could mean one country or a group of countries providing a larger block of each variant and other countries backfilling the gaps with their different variants which would not be as critical there as it would have been for Ukraine, but that takes a lot of coordination again, not just for the tanks themselves but for the entire infrastructure surrounding and supporting them.

Thanks for the additional details!

They will also need heavier bridging and recovery vehicles, and other combat engineering assets to support a bigger, heavier tank as well.

Some of that they have already received, but the amount will likely need to be increased further.

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:01 am

It's time for Biden to play his hand and give Ukraine a token platoon of M1s.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/be ... 023-01-18/

Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, a German government source told Reuters.

bt

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:05 am

bikerthai wrote:
It's time for Biden to play his hand and give Ukraine a token platoon of M1s.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/be ... 023-01-18/

Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, a German government source told Reuters.

The version of this rumour I've heard (on public hr info radio) seemed to be not about the US providing a small, fragmented token amount of M1s to Ukraine but actually about backfilling the german gaps from a larger contingent of Leo 2 being provided (relative to the total Bundeswehr numbers) and this would indeed be the much more useful approach.

The meeting in Rammstein is tomorrow, so not much time left to speculate anyway.

This is not a matter of silly schoolyard grandstanding but a heinously complex logistical operation across multiple nations and their militaries where actual, real problems need solving and effective coordination is key to the success.

By the way this goes exactly to the "balkanization" aspect again and we see its bite where we don't need it at all right now: If european militaries were better integrated there would be larger and more easily mobilized and distributed contingents of the same system types such as Leo 2 available and all this would be a lot easier (cheaper too, but that is not the main bottleneck right now, but it would have allowed for larger stocks existing now for the same investment).

SRQLOT · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:12 am

So what happened with this “well nobody sent Germany a request to send Leopards to Ukraine”!! So you can’t blame Germany!! When obviously they were and are stalling, and obviously other countries knew a request wasn’t going to be approved.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:16 am

SRQLOT wrote:
So what happened with this “well nobody sent Germany a request to send Leopards to Ukraine”!!

Says who? Are we in the straw man phase again? :roll:

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:18 am

If I was to read the statement literally, Germany will only allow "German made" tanks to be donated. Which implies that the stock will not come from Germany.

Back-filling the defense requirement does not necessarily means US donating tanks to Ukraine or to Poland. I could also mean the US deploy armored units to Europe to fill the capacity gap until more tanks are built. No need to train new tank crew, other than the token crew need for the token M1s given to Ukraine just so Germany can . . . (sorry can't find the right words. Would "have some political cover" be appropriate?)

bt

incitatus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:20 am

par13del wrote:
So Russia was able to close the door before too many of their military age males fled the country? Based on news at the time of the last conscription, the outlets made it appear as if the numbers fleeing were significant.

Russia has a limited number of cards to play: One is a large increase in the number of minimally competent soldiers. Then there are ballistic missiles and Iranian drones.

It used up Army hardware. Some of the more capable ships in the Black Sea were sunk. Military aircraft cannot be quickly replaced so they cannot be exposed to combat.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:21 am

Okay, if prejudiced bashing is the only thing going on here I have no more time for this.

SRQLOT · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:28 am

Klaus wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
So what happened with this “well nobody sent Germany a request to send Leopards to Ukraine”!!

Says who? Are we in the straw man phase again?

Says a German lawmaker.

“For months now, Scholz has warned against going it alone with regards to arms deliveries to Ukraine,” said Katja Leikert, a German lawmaker on the foreign affairs committee from the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the country’s main opposition party. “But now he is doing exactly that: His hesitancy to let European allies deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv is a dangerous solo action.”

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMib2 ... id=US%3Aen

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:31 am

Klaus wrote:
heinously complex logistical operation across multiple nations and their militaries where actual, real problems need solving and effective coordination is key to the success.

Just like how multiple countries worked the complex logistical problem to send a hand full of GLMRS systems to kick off the battle of attrition last summer. Or the Pzh2000?

We are not talking about hundreds of tanks at the get go. We are talking maybe dozens to start with. So if Germany is worried that these dozen Polish and Finnish tanks will somehow impact Germany's readiness, then I must be reading it wrong.

Germany is worrying about logistics of supporting Polish Leo 2 in Ukraine? That line of argument is pretty thin.

bt

SRQLOT · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:33 am

Klaus wrote:
Okay, if prejudiced bashing is the only thing going on here I have no more time for this.

And hope you know there is no prejudiced bashing. Germany has done a lot, but could do even more. That is the frustrating part. Central European countries are doing a lot too, but they are behind 60+ years economically compared to Germany France England. Time to put on the big boy pants and end this!! Considering we know Ukraine can do this!!!!

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:37 am

There’s an expectation Germany may soon at least allow allies like Poland and Finland to send their Leopards to Kyiv. And officials and diplomats in Berlin say the chancellor may even offer to help Ukraine with training and maintenance for the Leopards.

From Politco

This will be alright by me.

I think this what most of us here is asking for.

bt

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:50 am

As for US M1 tanks, I've read multiple quotes from various officials/expert that the hold back is not political but rather logistics. So you can take those statement with the same considerations as those from German officials.

So Germany don't want to send their Leo 2 unless the US sends their more maintenance intensive Abrams.

What ifs the both countries just send their remaining M-60s and Leo 1? And we can get on with the Spring offensive.

bt

ThePointblank · Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:09 am

bikerthai wrote:
As for US M1 tanks, I've read multiple quotes from various officials/expert that the hold back is not political but rather logistics. So you can take those statement with the same considerations as those from German officials.

So Germany don't want to send their Leo 2 unless the US sends their more maintenance intensive Abrams.

What ifs the both countries just send their remaining M-60s and Leo 1? And we can get on with the Spring offensive.

bt

The difference with the M1 is that there are less national variants, while still having fairly large production numbers. I suspect the US is better able to scrap together enough similar variants to create a common fleet from what it has in depots and stocks to make it effectively worthwhile for the Ukrainians.

Still, the comments I've made earlier about the Leopard 2 being a large leap in the learning curve also apply to the M1. The Ukrainians would need to get used to operating a vehicle that's significantly heavier than their existing tanks, with the corresponding doctrinal (strategic and tactical) and operational changes required. They would also need to be supplied with the engineering and logistics assets to effectively move the M1's around the battlefield.

The problem with M60's and Leopard 1's is that there are just so few of them right now; a lot of them were scrapped, expended as targets, or converted to engineering and support variants. There just might not be enough of them to make a worthwhile donation that would make a meaningful impact on the battlefield and be more than just a token donation.

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:16 am

Germany will send German-made tanks to Ukraine so long as the United States agrees to do likewise, a government source in Berlin told Reuters, as Nato partners remained out of step over how best to arm Ukraine in its war against Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rs-to-meet

I am mystified why the German government thinks it is OK to supply tanks if US does but not OK if it does not. The situation is darkly stark: Ukraine has been attacked by Russia and needs arms. If a country wants to help and is in a position to help in some way, it should do so, not make that help contingent on some other country doing the same.

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:48 am

One approach to sorting out the tank supply paralysis...

The Polish prime minister appears to have grown tired with Berlin's prevarication over whether or not to allow German made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

According to Polish media, Mateusz Morawiecki has said: "Permission is a secondary matter. We will either get it quickly or do what we see fit."

This apparently suggests Warsaw will send their Leopard 2's to Kyiv with, or without, Berlin's consent.

Leopard tanks are held by Greece, Denmark, Spain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Turkey, Finland and Sweden.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... r-12541713

petertenthije · Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:29 am

art wrote:
One approach to sorting out the tank supply paralysis...

Leopard tanks are held by ... the Netherlands, ...

We, The Netherlands, don't own tanks.

Around 2010ish we sold the remaining ones to FInland.
about a dozen or so were not sold. But these where sold around 2015ish to Germany.
They upgraded them, and now lease them back to NL.
The tanks leased by NL are still part of the German 414th Panzerbataillon, but manned by Dutch soldiers in Germany.

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:25 pm

art wrote:
One approach to sorting out the tank supply paralysis...

Another approach (although way out there) is to send the tanks to Ukraine with Polish "volunteers" :mischievous:

Breaching Germany's terms of sale is a serious matter that goes beyond the Leo 2 contract. Unless some lawyers can find another loophole.

bt

GDB · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:26 pm

The fact that Finland with a long border with Russia, is prepared to donate some of it's Leo 2's speaks volumes, about the reality based leadership there and what I think is still a Germany, despite the great amount of equipment sent, the quicker than expected transition away from Russian fuel, which is still struggling to get their heads around what has so fundamentally changed since last Feb.

M1's before we send any of ours now? OK, we have to wait until the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow but it's not being anti German at all to wonder if the Chancellor just cannot get over this odd mental barrier he has erected for himself, with it seems on this at least, another excuse.
I get the need to coordinate, as pointed out above, a lot of Leo 2 versions out there, guess who is best placed to do that?
The builder.

This writer is very far from having a beef with Europe or Germany, his points are logical;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -zelenskiy

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:31 pm

The only logical solution I can come up with is the US can pledge M1 tanks but won't actually send them until 2024 or when logistical infrastructure is in place.

That should at least provide political cover for Germany without impacting actual events on the ground.

So send the Leo now and you have the posibility of ending the war this year. Wait for the M1 which will most likely comes with US War planes as well, then perhaps looking at ending the war in 2024

bt

ReverseFlow · Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:34 pm

GDB wrote:
The fact that Finland with a long border with Russia, is prepared to donate some of it's Leo 2's speaks volumes, about the reality based leadership there and what I think is still a Germany, despite the great amount of equipment sent, the quicker than expected transition away from Russian fuel, which is still struggling to get their heads around what has so fundamentally changed since last Feb.

M1's before we send any of ours now? OK, we have to wait until the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow but it's not being anti German at all to wonder if the Chancellor just cannot get over this odd mental barrier he has erected for himself, with it seems on this at least, another excuse.
I get the need to coordinate, as pointed out above, a lot of Leo 2 versions out there, guess who is best placed to do that?
The builder.

This writer is very far from having a beef with Europe or Germany, his points are logical;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -zelenskiy

What it reminds me of is a case of "Show me yours, I'll show you mine"....
In other news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rs-to-meet

Poutines lapdog has said
"And it never occurs to any of them to draw the following elementary conclusion from this: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war."

He must mean like when the US exited Vietnam or the Soviets Afghanistan they nuked the place to bits....
Oh wait.....

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:28 pm

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Ukrainian strikes on Russian-annexed Crimea would be “extremely dangerous”, after the New York Times reported that US officials were warming to the idea of helping Kyiv strike the peninsula.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rs-to-meet

The idea of attacking Crimea worries me. Crimea is what Russia values the most in the area of Ukraine. If anything were to provoke a nuclear response, I think it would be Ukraine attacking Crimea and it looking like it would take it. In any event there are vast swathes of territory elsewhere occupied by Russia that need to be recovered, areas that are not being recovered due to Ukraine lacking the weapons to do so. I think the focus should be on liberating those areas before thinking of attacking Ukraine. It appears that cannot be done while the west keeps holding back on supplying the weapons to render it possible.

JonesNL · Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:37 pm

art wrote:
The Kremlin said on Thursday that Ukrainian strikes on Russian-annexed Crimea would be “extremely dangerous”, after the New York Times reported that US officials were warming to the idea of helping Kyiv strike the peninsula.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rs-to-meet

The idea of attacking Crimea worries me. Crimea is what Russia values the most in the area of Ukraine. If anything were to provoke a nuclear response, I think it would be Ukraine attacking Crimea and it looking like it would take it. In any event there are vast swathes of territory elsewhere occupied by Russia that need to be recovered, areas that are not being recovered due to Ukraine lacking the weapons to do so. I think the focus should be on liberating those areas before thinking of attacking Ukraine. It appears that cannot be done while the west keeps holding back on supplying the weapons to render it possible.

Ukrainian forces attacked Crimea multiple times in multiple ways, even there navy in Sevastopol was attacked in a way that reminded me of Pearl Harbour. Yet, just regular missiles attacks on infrastructure and no nuclear response at all. You don't have to worry at all and can sleep tight, Russia will keep on barking without a nuclear bite...

bikerthai · Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:04 pm

And really Ukraine does not need to attack Crimea.

Once they regain the south coast, they can choke Crimea by put fire control on the Kerch bridge

With the GLSDB they can clear Crimea of SAMs and gain air superiority.

If only humanitarian aid can get to Crimea, Russia will have no choice but withdraw. Kerson 2.0.

bt

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:04 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Ukrainian forces attacked Crimea multiple times in multiple ways, even there navy in Sevastopol was attacked in a way that reminded me of Pearl Harbour. Yet, just regular missiles attacks on infrastructure and no nuclear response at all. You don't have to worry at all and can sleep tight, Russia will keep on barking without a nuclear bite...

I should have expressed myself better. What worries me is Ukraine trying to retake Crimea. I think that would raise the possibility of Putin going nuclear. Far, far more than loads more weapons being supplied to enable Ukraine to make more progress in winning back territory. The west has dragged it feet in that respect, fearful, it seems, of the Russian response.

There is another aspect: millions of Ukrainians living in the zones occupied since Feb 24 do not want to live under Russian occupation. As I understand things, most people living in Crimea prefer to live under Russian occupation. To me, liberating people from a regime they do not want is more important than liberating people from a regime they do want..

johns624 · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:12 pm

I think some are embarrassed that Ukraine is still holding on and wish they would collapse so business can get back to usual.

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:18 pm

Klaus wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Holy simplified narratives, man!

Actually no – my post flew over your head in multiple ways at the same time already and you should really cool off quite a bit before posting again.

I only and specifically addressed the point of which forces were instrumental in the defeat of the Third Reich, and there it is simply absurd to omit the Soviet Union's role since that was in fact crucial.

Actually, my post flew over your head. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the USSR would lose six million of its own people after 1942 if Stalin had just done what his ideology demanded and supported the efforts against the Nazis in 1939!

Klaus wrote:
That Stalin was basically on the same level as Hitler himself needed mentioning at the same time and I did in fact do that in summary:

Klaus wrote:
Even while Stalin added his own extra horrors to that throughout his rule!

This hardly compensates for scolding other people about simplified narratives, then presenting your own simplified narrative, one that calls out others for not praising Stalin.

Klaus wrote:
So this conclusion of yours is completely absurd, obviously and blatantly false, and highly offensive on top:

I really wonder what makes you support Stalin so much. It's as if your education on these times is surprisingly lacking, as if you followed a deliberately whitewashed curriculum.

This is such an egregious misrepresentation of my post combined with a completely unwarranted personal attack that it requires an apology.

I had merely opted not to roll out the entire panorama of WWII in my compact and specific correction of the original poster's pretty massive oversight but still keeping the perspective at the correct proportions.

It's not a personal attack, it's an accurate observation. Read your post again where you include the Baltic States in your list of "soviet populations", read a history book or two, and come back and share what you've learned about your own lack of education and perspective with us. Hint: Referring to the Baltic States as "soviet" is about as accurate as calling the annexed Ukrainian provinces "Russian".

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:04 pm

bikerthai wrote:
It's time for Biden to play his hand and give Ukraine a token platoon of M1s.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/be ... 023-01-18/

Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, a German government source told Reuters.

One commentator referred to this as "the battle between the leopard and the cowardly lion"...

Let those Leopards roam!

bikerthai wrote:
Germany is worrying about logistics of supporting Polish Leo 2 in Ukraine? That line of argument is pretty thin.

Indeed. What is the use of buying military equipment that can't be supported in the field?

bikerthai wrote:
As for US M1 tanks, I've read multiple quotes from various officials/expert that the hold back is not political but rather logistics. So you can take those statement with the same considerations as those from German officials.

So Germany don't want to send their Leo 2 unless the US sends their more maintenance intensive Abrams.

It's pure bureaucratic obstructionism on the part of the Russia-lovers.

art wrote:
One approach to sorting out the tank supply paralysis...

The Polish prime minister appears to have grown tired with Berlin's prevarication over whether or not to allow German made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

According to Polish media, Mateusz Morawiecki has said: "Permission is a secondary matter. We will either get it quickly or do what we see fit."

This apparently suggests Warsaw will send their Leopard 2's to Kyiv with, or without, Berlin's consent.

This won't upset the Russia-lovers too much, they'll gladly blame it all on the Poles.

GDB wrote:
M1's before we send any of ours now? OK, we have to wait until the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow but it's not being anti German at all to wonder if the Chancellor just cannot get over this odd mental barrier he has erected for himself, with it seems on this at least, another excuse.
I get the need to coordinate, as pointed out above, a lot of Leo 2 versions out there, guess who is best placed to do that?
The builder.

I don't think of it as an internal mental barrier, I see it as a real-politik struggle. Russia-lovers are making things difficult, otherwise simply waiving the export restrictions would have happened weeks ago. Lots of Germans have made lots of money trading with Russia over the last few decades, their main interest is getting that cash flowing once again, to enable this they want to keep Germany as pro-Russia as they can.

johns624 wrote:
I think some are embarrassed that Ukraine is still holding on and wish they would collapse so business can get back to usual.

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:50 pm

Looks like the pussyfooting around tanks may be over...

Lithuania’s defence minister, Arvydas Anusauskas, has said several countries will announce sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at tomorrow’s meeting of defence ministers at the Ramstein airbase in Germany.

Anusauskas told Reuters:

Some of the countries will definitely send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, that is for sure.

The total number of armoured vehicles pledged at tomorrow’s meeting will go into hundreds, Anusauskas said.

Britain plans to send 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine to support the country in its fight against Russia, defence minister Ben Wallace has announced. Speaking at a meeting with other defence ministers at the Tapa army base in Estonia, Wallace outlined a previously announced package of military support for Ukraine, including sending Challenger tanks. “We’re in it for the long haul,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rs-to-meet

GDB · Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:25 pm

In one of Perun's videos last year, he intimated that it was believed that Bulgaria had sent on the quiet, supplies to Ukraine, despite the unfavorable local politics, seems he was right;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... war-russia

More analysis;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rABpe7oJvzY

The Defence Secretary in Estonia;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JD6c6QcJChM

The Bulldog APC to be supplied;
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... icles.html

tomcat · Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:58 pm

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:
Germany is worrying about logistics of supporting Polish Leo 2 in Ukraine? That line of argument is pretty thin.

Indeed. What is the use of buying military equipment that can't be supported in the field?

The proof will be in the pudding. It didn't take a war for Eurocopter to not be able to support the Australian Tigers and the Norwegian NH90s. But given the great numbers of Leo in service, one can hope that support should be up to the task.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Actually, my post flew over your head. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the USSR would lose six million of its own people after 1942 if Stalin had just done what his ideology demanded and supported the efforts against the Nazis in 1939!

That was simply not the topic being discussed.

What I had spoken to was simply the historical fact that soviet forces had a crucial role in crushing the Third Reich. That is all my post said, as can be verified at any time upthread.

You twisting the mentioning of this historical fact into "supporting Stalin" is completely absurd and outright defamatory.

One power-greedy, murderous dictator collaborated with the western allies to roll back and overthrow another power-greedy, murderous dictator. That is not an endorsement, but it is still a historical fact.

That there were lots of preceding and succeeding events is obvious and was not in discussion, but only the strange omission of the role of soviet forces in the military defeat of the Third Reich in the preceding post.

You were off on completely separate tangents which do not change anything about this simple fact, such as the obvious unhappiness of most of the baltic and ukrainian populations under soviet occupation. That occupation still was a historical fact until they could fortunately regain their independence decades later.

Likewise the prehistory of WWII does not change the specific fact of how the Third Reich ended either.

An education in history by necessity requires the ability to distinguish between basic facts, personal preferences and moral judgments. Those are often related, but not interchangeable.

art · Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:17 pm

MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - An ally of President Vladimir Putin warned NATO on Thursday that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 023-01-19/

Medvedev is a fanatic, I think. A deluded one, too. It is not as if the west invaded part of Russia called Ukraine and defeated the defenders, is it?

PS

'Poland’s prime minister said he was “moderately pessimistic” about Germany giving other countries permission to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

“I am moderately sceptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans are defending themselves against this like a devil protects himself against holy water,” Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters.'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog ... pter-crash

Thunderboltdrgn · Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:33 pm

Sweden will send 50 units of Combat vehicle 90 + an unspecified amount of Archer B artilleey system.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vaste ... ll-ukraina

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/nytt ... resenteras

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ede25e3831

B717fan · Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:57 pm

art wrote:
MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - An ally of President Vladimir Putin warned NATO on Thursday that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 023-01-19/

Medvedev is a fanatic, I think. A deluded one, too. It is not as if the west invaded part of Russia called Ukraine and defeated the defenders, is it?

PS

'Poland’s prime minister said he was “moderately pessimistic” about Germany giving other countries permission to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

“I am moderately sceptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans are defending themselves against this like a devil protects himself against holy water,” Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters.'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog ... pter-crash

Medvedev seems to really have a thing for nukes.

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:59 pm

Interesting chart showing what is being provided to Ukraine:

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... d_military

As the source mentions, this chart will probably be out-of-date by tomorrow.

I mean, it really is a staggering amount of aid that Ukraine is getting, all donors (mentioned and unmentioned) are doing a wonderful job helping Ukraine. We can all say we wish even more was coming, but we also should recognize that a lot of expensive kit is committed to being sent to Ukraine already.

Klaus · Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:01 pm

art wrote:
MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - An ally of President Vladimir Putin warned NATO on Thursday that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war...

Given that that is their primary / last trump card it is not surprising that they're trying to parade it, even while such a first strike would completely contradict their own nuclear doctrine (plus all the other consequences for Russia).

Medvedev is a fanatic, I think. A deluded one, too.

Not really. He is quite rational; And right now his position is best served by toeing Putin's official line and spouting pseudo-patriotic drivel.

It is not as if the west invaded part of Russia called Ukraine and defeated the defenders, is it?[*]

Yet that is pretty much exactly how they're selling the invasion to the russian public.

'Poland’s prime minister said he was “moderately pessimistic” about Germany giving other countries permission to re-export Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

“I am moderately sceptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans are defending themselves against this like a devil protects himself against holy water,” Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters.'

A polish PiS politician during an electoral campaign using a combination of their usual aggressive germanophobia combined with catholic imagery? Must have been a bad day that he didn't manage to somehow pull in homophobia and anti-EU rhetoric, too!

Unfortunate in times like these, but not much news value from the PiS.

We'll see what the actual decisions will be.

iamlucky13 · Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:09 pm

bikerthai wrote:
tomcat wrote:
The only concerns I read about the GLSDB is that it is more susceptible of being intercepted than HIMAR rockets due to its relatively slow flying speed (gliding at about 400mph after the propulsion phase is over).

3 thoughts.

1) After the boost phase, the bomb actually detatch from the rocket, so it would present a smaller radar signature, so should be harder to detect.

2) Because it has wings, the glide bomb can maneuver and come in at different trajectories. The maneuvering does reduce the range though.

3) The terminal stage can actually be guided. So if SF or targeting drones are in the area, they can actually engage moving targets.

I was also giving some thought to the relative pros and cons of the M31 GMLRS and the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB). Regarding probability of interception, my conclusion is the SBD should be easier to intercept than the M31, but still not easy. Russia is unlikely to intercept more than a small percentage of them.

1) It's in the ballpark of half the length of the M31 GMLRS. Not counting the wings, I'd expect the frontal RCS to be the same as the M31, and the side RCS to be about half. With the wings, I would guess the frontal RCS is a bit larger, and the side RCS is about the same as the M31.

But the baseline M31 we are comparing against is only 8 inches in diameter and 13 feet long. It might be detectable at longer range than an F-35, for example, but far shorter range than an aircraft, or even some of the drones that Ukraine has managed multiple successful attacks with.

2) That occurred to me, so I did some brief searching, but did not find any clear information whether the GBU-39 can be programmed with way points or any automated defensive maneuvering. Keep in mind that maneuvering does reduce range at least somewhat.

3) There is an interim version designated GBU-39B that includes a laser seeker. Since it requires the target to be painted with a laser designator, that capability is unlikely to be useful except close to the front, where they might work in coordination with their special forces or with Bayraktars.

The GBU-53 Small Diameter Bomb II is a newer version that includes a dual mode mm wave radar and infrared seeker that would attempt to identify and track moving targets as it approached the programmed location, but this is more expensive, and still limited in inventory. Also, given the hesitance in the US to send any of these in the first place, I think it most likely that we'll be sending GLSDB's equipped with the standard GBU-39A, using GPS and inertial guidance only, but even that will give Ukraine a significant increase in their ability to hit the Russian rear areas.

Revelation · Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:22 pm

art wrote:
Medvedev is a fanatic, I think. A deluded one, too. It is not as if the west invaded part of Russia called Ukraine and defeated the defenders, is it?

That's not too far off of Putin's current ideology. He picks a convenient point in time to act as a reference that he feels supports the idea that the Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians are all one people ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rus%27_people ). That's as absurd as saying the French and Germans are all one people because they were once part of the Holy Roman Empire, but it fits his desire to justify a huge land grab, so he goes with it. He explains the fact that the "brother" Ukrainians didn't welcome in the Russian armed forces as being the evil influence of the West, certainly not because they have any right or expectation to freedom or self-determination.

geomap · Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:17 pm

Klaus wrote:

What I had spoken to was simply the historical fact that soviet forces had a crucial role in crushing the Third Reich. That is all my post said, as can be verified at any time upthread.

You twisting the mentioning of this historical fact into "supporting Stalin" is completely absurd and outright defamatory.

One power-greedy, murderous dictator collaborated with the western allies to roll back and overthrow another power-greedy, murderous dictator. That is not an endorsement, but it is still a historical fact.

That there were lots of preceding and succeeding events is obvious and was not in discussion, but only the strange omission of the role of soviet forces in the military defeat of the Third Reich in the preceding post.

You were off on completely separate tangents which do not change anything about this simple fact, such as the obvious unhappiness of most of the baltic and ukrainian populations under soviet occupation. That occupation still was a historical fact until they could fortunately regain their independence decades later.

Likewise the prehistory of WWII does not change the specific fact of how the Third Reich ended either.

An education in history by necessity requires the ability to distinguish between basic facts, personal preferences and moral judgments. Those are often related, but not interchangeable.

How is any of this relevant to this discussion? Its a serious question. Why are Stalin and the Third Reich even being argued about here? Can we please focus on events happening now in relation to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia? The current flavor of the thread is the equipment that is needed by Ukraine and how Germany is preventing other nations from providing needed support. Lets discuss that please.

Thank you

Geomap

GDB · Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting chart showing what is being provided to Ukraine:

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... d_military

As the source mentions, this chart will probably be out-of-date by tomorrow.

I mean, it really is a staggering amount of aid that Ukraine is getting, all donors (mentioned and unmentioned) are doing a wonderful job helping Ukraine. We can all say we wish even more was coming, but we also should recognize that a lot of expensive kit is committed to being sent to Ukraine already.

I was going to comment on this;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxzwiqKb ... 5Q4ycpcHaK
But it's part of the quite staggering list.

I note Poland and the Leo 2, presumably awaiting sign off, I don't think the PiS politician was being helpful.
knowing what that party is about, so yes, electioneering. Even with the nagging sense that the Chancellor keeps moving the goalposts.
Wanted others to supply, fine, not counting Challenger which they cannot control, there is a list of nations prepared to, accepting that Germany, trying to rebuild it's forces, needs to keep most or all of it's Leo 2's. Then it's M1's now suddenly have to be part of it too, that I don't get.

But look at the list again, 28 MBT's 14 of which they will get for certain, is far from a major part of that package, which Germany is contributing to.
Putting it in context, would twice or three times that number be any more to cause escalation, an idea rapidly becoming invalid as an excuse?
Months ago, earlier in the war, certainly at the beginning, it was understandable and considering the stakes and Putin's irrationality, prudent too.
But after all the wolf crying....?
It's not like numbers of MBTs in three figures will arrive quickly, what with the training, logistics and support needed.

bikerthai · Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:26 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
GBU-39 can be programmed with way points or any automated defensive maneuvering.

The SBD is supposed to have a 360 degrees attack, so there's ought to be either a way point or pre-programed attack mode.

From what I read, the moving target capability comes from constantly adjusting the GPS coordiant point combined with vector prediction programing. These probably do not have the more advanced seakers as the main selling point is they are cheap and plenty in inventory as they will be replaced by the SBDII.

bt

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