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cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:42 am

GDB wrote:
cpd wrote:
TheSonntag wrote:
Aren't the Polish Mig-29s ex-Luftwaffe ones and therefore they would need German government approval to send them to the Ukraine.

Some are, not all though.


Which are ex-Soviet, so how far back along the line do you go with this government approval needed?

Just deliver them if they are needed…


They are ex German, flown from 1990-2003.
Never used operationally such as in Operation Allied Force in 1999, where Germany used air power in action for the first time post WW2, with SEAD Tornado ECR's.
Since though the Mig was seen as very good at lower speed dogfights, the helmet mounted sight and at the time, the IR missile, was better than what the West had.
But not the case with BVR, inferior radar, previous generation fire control, poor displays and situational awareness, these also were export model downgrades in the first place.
Add in poor range, at least prior to Polish use they had non NATO standard IFF and poor nav equipment.

Poland did install NATO standard equipment to allow them to operate longer term, the above though should demonstrate that against the one overmatch besides sheer numbers that Russia has, is their long and longer ranged radars and AAM's from upgraded SU-27's and Mig-31's respectively, if anyone thinks that more Mig 29's are the answer, they are not.
Maybe that has been a consideration in supplying Ukraine with them too.
They've integrated HARM, doing so with JDAM, however the basic limitation of the radar and fire control means it's very doubtful you can stick a better BVR AAM on them,
Those Russian types also stay within their airspace, especially for the short ranged Mig-29.

The post reunification German AF's evaluation was that it was good for point defence against major targets, like cities.
That's all.


I know what the MiGs are, I remember them well. My point was about the "Germany must give permission" stuff, and the irony given where East Germany got the MiGs from in the first place.

Agree also that they are now too old.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:55 am

cpd wrote:
GDB wrote:
cpd wrote:

Which are ex-Soviet, so how far back along the line do you go with this government approval needed?

Just deliver them if they are needed…


They are ex German, flown from 1990-2003.
Never used operationally such as in Operation Allied Force in 1999, where Germany used air power in action for the first time post WW2, with SEAD Tornado ECR's.
Since though the Mig was seen as very good at lower speed dogfights, the helmet mounted sight and at the time, the IR missile, was better than what the West had.
But not the case with BVR, inferior radar, previous generation fire control, poor displays and situational awareness, these also were export model downgrades in the first place.
Add in poor range, at least prior to Polish use they had non NATO standard IFF and poor nav equipment.

Poland did install NATO standard equipment to allow them to operate longer term, the above though should demonstrate that against the one overmatch besides sheer numbers that Russia has, is their long and longer ranged radars and AAM's from upgraded SU-27's and Mig-31's respectively, if anyone thinks that more Mig 29's are the answer, they are not.
Maybe that has been a consideration in supplying Ukraine with them too.
They've integrated HARM, doing so with JDAM, however the basic limitation of the radar and fire control means it's very doubtful you can stick a better BVR AAM on them,
Those Russian types also stay within their airspace, especially for the short ranged Mig-29.

The post reunification German AF's evaluation was that it was good for point defence against major targets, like cities.
That's all.


I know what the MiGs are, I remember them well. My point was about the "Germany must give permission" stuff, and the irony given where East Germany got the MiGs from in the first place.

Agree also that they are now too old.


Yes, however more widely this is not the impression given, call it non specialist or just poorly informed media, which cascades into seeing these as either a wedge issue to claim the West isn't helping Ukraine enough, to going after say the Germans when they are not doing anything here to impede Ukraine, besides they seem to agree up to now at least, with the US administration on this.

It's like the whole thing about the Western MBTs, 'will they be ready on time in numbers if Russia counterattacks first?'
Given how important what artillery Ukraine had at the start, that played a pivotal role in stopping the Russian initial advance, now they have, in numbers, Western artillery including precision munitions.
So I would suggest that will be, with existing and supplemented legacy systems, the main Ukrainian counter to a Russian attack again.

Here we see a franken-MTLB captured from Russian sponsored units, now likely most useful against drones with it's new owners;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaaHRSkfPmM

And a milestone, in numbers, bearing in mind Oryx only counts verified losses/captures that can be visually confirmed;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVr4BUAOzg0
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:51 am

Ukraine will not give up on embattled Bakhmut in the east of the country, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said as Moscow’s forces continue their onslaught against a town the Ukrainian leader described as a “fortress”.

The hotly-contested town in the Donetsk region has been at the centre of fighting for months and Zelenskyy said on Friday that Ukrainian forces would continue to hold it for as long as possible, during a summit in Kyiv with EU leaders.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/4 ... -zelenskyy

I note '...as long as possible.' A Ukrainian withdrawal looks likely to me, from what I have read of Russia advancing to skirt round north and south of the town and supply routes being cut by Russia. Apart from Russia gaining a mile or two of territory, is it of real significance if UAF withdraws?

Since ground offensives with troops normally involve the attackers losing more offenders than the defenders, I wonder what the ratio has been in the fight for Bakhmut.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:29 pm

art wrote:
Apart from Russia gaining a mile or two of territory, is it of real significance if UAF withdraws?


Being a city with buildings, Bakhmut offer some sheltering comfort for the defender. Once Russia levels the town, it would no longer be of use.

If you look at the topographic map, you'll see the terrain just west and north of the city being hilly, which will offer good defensive layout for the Ukrainians. So even if the Russian finally take the city, I'm not sure if they will be able to push much beyond without expending more men and machine. I don't see the Russian taking those hills before the Ukrainian start to lay the ground works for their own offensive.

The GLSDS is slated to arrive in the spring. My guess is sometimes in April. So, it would nice for the Ukrainian to hold the city until then, or at least the area behind the city.

bt
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:58 pm

bikerthai wrote:
The GLSDS is slated to arrive in the spring. My guess is sometimes in April. So, it would nice for the Ukrainian to hold the city until then, or at least the area behind the city.

Unfortunately Bloomberg (via Reddit) says they won't be available for another 9 months ( ref: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... rojectiles ).

Commenters suggest the spring date was for early samples, production won't be in full swing for another 9 months.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:28 pm

Other commenter suggest that 9 mo was from contract to delivery.

Does anyone recall when the rumor started? I'd peg that was the time frame as when the contract was signed.

No, this would be bought using Lend Lease money. So when was that money approved? MAY 2022. Let's say give them 30 days to work out the contract. A June contract would mean initial LRIP production after 9 months would be March.

Rumors started in November. So the latest I can see initial production in June/July time frame.

Just wishful thinking.

bt
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:53 pm

Meanwhile, in the Russian Autocracy, their grand strategy for holding the West hostage via oil and gas is failing.

Russian oil&gas revenues have dwindled to just 425.5 billion RUB in January 2023. This is about half (!) of the revenue in January 2022. Meanwhile, global oil prices were roughly the same a year ago.


Image

Ref: https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1621440460408365056

The difference between the red solid and dotted line is due to a tax that is in essence raiding Gazprom's financial reserves to fund the state, yet you can see that it could not be sustained for very long.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:23 pm

cpd wrote:
Which are ex-Soviet, so how far back along the line do you go with this government approval needed?


As far as necessary for another endless round of scholzing.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:41 pm

From u2b:

Ukraine’s security service hacked a zoom-call between moscow and the quislings in Ukraine. And officially notified the latter that they’re charged with treason.

Ref: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status ... 6501554176

Translations:

00:30 → 00:33
The Security Service of Ukraine has identified and traced all of you.
00:33 → 00:37
You will all be on the international search list from tomorrow.
00:37 → 00:42
You will all be held accountable under Article 111 of the Criminal Code.
00:42 → 00:45
State treason.

The looks on some of the faces is priceless!
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:51 pm

Interesting report:

Oil depot catches fire in Belgorod region of Russia

On the night of February 4, a large-scale fire occurred at an oil depot in the town of Borisovka, in the Belgorod region of Russia.
...
As claimed by the eyewitnesses, it was tanks with petroleum products that caught fire. The fire could be seen a few kilometers from the oil depot itself.
...
The production of the Borisov Bridge Steel Structure Plant has reportedly suffered serious damage by fire from the oil depot. It is noted that this enterprise produced metal structures for the construction of the Crimean bridge across the Kerch Strait, connecting the occupied Ukrainian Crimea with the aggressor state.
...
According to the Russian local authorities, the fire allegedly occurred as a result of shells.


On his Telegram channel, the governor of the Belgorod region Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote: “The shells hit the territory of the industrial plant. According to preliminary information, no one was injured: people were successfully evacuated to a safe distance. An operational headquarters has been formed. All emergency services have arrived at the site,” wrote Gladkov.

Ref: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oil-depot-cat ... of-russia/

So we have Ukrainian "shells" taking out an oil depot inside Russia (!) that is associated with the factory that makes metal structures for the Kerch Bridge. This all seems pretty remarkable to me. Either that, or it's careless smokers yet again.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:56 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Apart from Russia gaining a mile or two of territory, is it of real significance if UAF withdraws?


Being a city with buildings, Bakhmut offer some sheltering comfort for the defender. Once Russia levels the town, it would no longer be of use.

If you look at the topographic map, you'll see the terrain just west and north of the city being hilly, which will offer good defensive layout for the Ukrainians. So even if the Russian finally take the city, I'm not sure if they will be able to push much beyond without expending more men and machine. I don't see the Russian taking those hills before the Ukrainian start to lay the ground works for their own offensive.

The GLSDS is slated to arrive in the spring. My guess is sometimes in April. So, it would nice for the Ukrainian to hold the city until then, or at least the area behind the city.

bt


Bakhmut is gradually becoming a flat moonscape, less defensible by the day. The fear in amateur analyst community, has always been, that once Bakhmut needs to be abandoned, next battles could be for large agglomerations of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, displacing a lot of residents in the process.

A solution is needed that deprives the aggressor of materiel and manpower. Or the head of the snake needs to be cut. No survivors in Moscow, vs. no more casualties in Ukraine, looked like a balanced trade-off ever since February 2014, and is becoming overdue, if ever valid, still.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:38 am

Phosphorus wrote:
A solution is needed that deprives the aggressor of materiel and manpower. Or the head of the snake needs to be cut. No survivors in Moscow, vs. no more casualties in Ukraine, looked like a balanced trade-off ever since February 2014, and is becoming overdue, if ever valid, still.


What you propose is entirely hypothetical since Ukraine does not have the means to neutralise Moscow. Yes, you may see no survivors in the capital of the aggressor state versus no more casualties in the state suffering its aggression as a kind of just outcome but no state would support your proposal.

I hope that Russia's probable offensive in the spring will fail and the Russian army will find itself in a position in which it can no longer sustain its activities and therefore be forced to retreat. It looks to me like the war will sadly continue until UAF wins a decisive victory on the ground.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 12:10 pm

Writing in the Times of Malta ahead of a visit on Tuesday to the Mediterranean island, which assumed the presidency of the U.N. Security Council at the start of February, Cleverly wrote:

Like all authoritarian rulers, Putin responds only to strength in his opponents. He rejected Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s 10-point plan for peace last December. That is why the UK and Ukraine’s friends are doing all they can to bring Ukraine success on the battlefield. And it’s why I’m delighted that Germany and the US are joining the UK in sending tanks to the Ukrainians. Giving the Ukrainians the tools they need to finish the job is the swiftest – indeed the only – path to peace.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ident-says

PS Cleverly is UK foreign minister. He holds the rank of colonel in the British forces
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 1:47 pm

The Leopard 1's being supplied will have ammunition commonality with the Challenger 2's, which will make things a little less complicated if they are in the same unit.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 1:53 pm

johns624 wrote:
The Leopard 1's being supplied will have ammunition commonality with the Challenger 2's, which will make things a little less complicated if they are in the same unit.


The Leo 1's have the classic L7 105mm.
The Challenger 2's the third generation rifled 120mm.
Though I doubt the UK still has stocks of 105mm tank rounds, Centurion left front line service late 60's/early 70's in the British Army.

Still, the Ukrainians are settling in and working hard in Bovingdon;
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ukraini ... ger-tanks/
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 2:30 pm

art wrote:

PS Cleverly is UK foreign minister. He holds the rank of colonel in the British forces

Incorrect, he's a Lieutenant colonel (OF-4) of the TA/Army Reserves. Lt Col. sits above major but below colonel.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 2:42 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
art wrote:

PS Cleverly is UK foreign minister. He holds the rank of colonel in the British forces

Incorrect, he's a Lieutenant colonel (OF-4) of the TA/Army Reserves. Lt Col. sits above major but below colonel.


True. Is a lieutenant general or a major general not referred to as a general because they are not a full general? Are you in the British forces if you serve in the reserve? I chose my words to keep it short and (not so, apparently) sweet.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 3:46 pm

An updated look at the various weapons being used by UK and Commonwealth military, in training Ukrainians;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6WJ8pXCb8w
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 3:49 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Bakhmut is gradually becoming a flat moonscape, less defensible by the day. The fear in amateur analyst community, has always been, that once Bakhmut needs to be abandoned, next battles could be for large agglomerations of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, displacing a lot of residents in the process.

Lots of pitched battles still going on in Bakhmut. British sources highlight some recent challenges:

Image

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ne_update/

It seems eventually UAF will have pull out of Bakhmut, but it's no victory by the enemy. It's amazing they with their centuries of military history have struggled so much for a militarily-insignificant target. They are paying a huge price for each inch they gain.

Girkin is not happy with the state of affairs in our enemy's military:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... rday_about
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:07 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Bakhmut is gradually becoming a flat moonscape, less defensible by the day.


It occurs to me that if UAF withdraw from Bakhmut because it is no longer defendable but later counterattack, the Russian army will face the same problem trying to hold it - it is not defendable.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:02 pm

This weeks Perun, on the Arms, Aid and Escalation of supplying Ukraine.
As ever, well sourced, busts some myths along the way;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj9HD8MdAFs
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 5:37 pm

Undergoing some basic training....in Spain;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJh9hitPO7M
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:53 pm

Up to 40 countries could boycott the next Olympic Games, making the whole event pointless, said Poland's sport and tourism minister Kamil Bortniczuk.

His comments came after Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia jointly rejected an International Olympic Committee (IOC) plan to allow Russians and Belarusians to compete in 2024.

Ukraine has threatened to boycott the Paris Olympics if that occurs.

But the IOC said on Thursday that any boycott would only "punish athletes".


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/64503198

I know there are a lot of emotions involved but I feel for the athletes. Being an athlete is not a political activity.

If the games are to be politicised with a boycott, I think that athletes from Russia should not be allowed to represent their country. I think that those athletes and in addition athletes from countries boycotting the games should be permitted to participate as individuals if they so chose.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:18 pm

 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 12:51 am

Big stockpile of Ukrainian Kamikaze drones;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VmfjBrwEow

Russian armour getting in trouble;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfxo_V2Ox80

And a BM-21;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PwkEzYETLs
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:05 pm

It's been some time since a more senior Russian officer or commander got taken out, this time possibly a SF one;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlK7r1oLu64
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:52 pm

GDB wrote:
It's been some time since a more senior Russian officer or commander got taken out, this time possibly a SF one;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlK7r1oLu64

A one-way trip back to the motherland. Dasvidaniya. Hope many join this guy.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:36 pm

A moderately interesting WSJ article about the Russian plans to build a factory in Russia for Iranian-designed drones got me thinking about one part of Russia's long term strategy:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-teh ... direct=amp

Aside from a strategy of manpower attrition against Urkaine, I think this fits into a strategy of economic attrition against their western supporters. They're doubling down on long range Iranian-designed loitering munitions (eg - Shahed-136 / Geran-2).

These loitering munitions have a very poor rate of successfully reaching their targets, but massed attacks can increase the chances of success, not only for other loitering munitions, but even more importantly as decoys to help Russian cruise missiles get through, and most importantly, they are simple, cheap, and can likely be built at a relatively high rate. Most estimates put the cost at less than $50,000 per drone.

In comparison, an FIM-92 Stinger costs in the ballpark of $480,000 per missile. AIM-120's, used by the much more capable, medium-ranged NASAMS system cost about $1.3 million each. I believe IRIS-T comes in between these two in price.

And while Gepard ammunition may be much less expensive (assuming they now have a reliable non-Swiss supplier), the theoretical maximum coverage of the 30 Gepards they have received is 240 km based on the listed 4000m range. Ukraine has over 1,000 km of front to protect on land, not even including the Belarusian border, plus almost 200 km of Black Sea coast west of the Dnipro.

I'm honestly very surprised and impressed how effective Ukraine has been at intercepting Shahed-136's and Russia's cruise missiles, and I wonder if Russia's mission planning groups are under-staffed and planning predictable routes. Even if that is the case, the potential to launch thousands of them over time will be a serious strain on SAM inventories.

Also relevant: Israel's reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine is due to concerns about Russia increasing support for Syria and Iran. If Iran is receiving increased support from Russia regardless of what Israel does, then that seemingly negates their reasons for not providing Ukraine with arms. Russia is diverting the Su-35 order that Egypt cancelled to Iran, and Israel certainly must not like that. At the same time, Israel's latest comments about Ukraine's request for Iron Dome systems seemed to be a softening compared to previous comments.
 
johns624
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:46 pm

I follow a Scottish Youtube vlogger named Steve Marsh. He just did a train journey from Krakow, Poland to Vilnius, Lithuania. At one of his stops, there a trainload of Marders on flat cars a few tracks over What's interesing is that they still have German markings on them. Go to the 13-14 minute mark in the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJBPvJtQ0WI
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:16 pm

johns624 wrote:
I follow a Scottish Youtube vlogger named Steve Marsh. He just did a train journey from Krakow, Poland to Vilnius, Lithuania. At one of his stops, there a trainload of Marders on flat cars a few tracks over What's interesing is that they still have German markings on them. Go to the 13-14 minute mark in the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJBPvJtQ0WI


From what I could see, the 20mm cannon barrels were stowed away, likely inside the vehicle if I'm seeing it right.
Lucky find.

Looks like Ukraine had another go with the modified TU-141, didn't make it to the intended target.
Still, they've already caused Russian to move some AD assets, some locations more rational than others.
And generally worried them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgo7EoxJOkE
 
oldJoe
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:40 am

Revelation wrote:
GDB wrote:
It's been some time since a more senior Russian officer or commander got taken out, this time possibly a SF one;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlK7r1oLu64

A one-way trip back to the motherland. Dasvidaniya. Hope many join this guy.

I see you have basic Russian knowledge and I would say: Paka Durak!!!
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:33 am

Here's an interesting Twitter thread by Michael Koffman, a civilian analyst for the DoD specializing in the Russian armed force. He was born in Kyiv, but immigrated to the US after the breakup of the USSR. Here he discusses prospects for the next few months of the war. He mentions in passing a point about the timing of Western support that I echoed previously, but he does add some optimism to the better-later-than-never point of view.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/statu ... ut0oQtAAAA

I find a map of the current situation in Ukraine very helpful to review while reading his assessment:
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36 ... 1cf64bd375

Although winter has proven a transitional phase, with both sides focusing on force reconstitution and positional fighting. The outlines of the coming months & likely offensive operations are steadily becoming clearer.

After Kharkiv & Kherson, the Russian military was at its most vulnerable going into the winter. Mobilization helped stabilize Russian lines, raise manning levels, and establish reserves. Consequently, Ukraine no longer enjoys a significant manpower advantage.
....
It’s fair to say since October RU has likely doubled the force deployed in Ukraine, and significantly reduced the length of the front being defended after retreating from Kherson. Force density has therefore increased relative to territory being occupied. The UA official figure on RU forces (320k) strikes me as a bit high, but 250k+ is probably fair. RU may have another 150,000 mobilized personnel still in Russia, not deployed. However, readiness level and quality of these units remains unclear.
....
Bakhmut is geographically important, but has developed a degree of sunk cost mentality for both sides.
....
UA had made progress at Kreminna and Svatove, though now under counter-attack by the VDV's 76th GAAD. Kreminna is a gateway to Rubizhne. For UA, a breakthrough the Svatove-Kreminna line can eventually lead to the RU logistical hub of Starobilsk. Hence the battle for Kreminna is arguably more significant than Bakhmut. That said there’s been a fair amount of reorganization in RU logistics, and adaptation. I think the conversation on RU logistical problems in general suffers from too much anecdotalism & received wisdom.
....
Arguably, UA is better served absorbing the RU attack & exhausting RU offensive potential, then taking the initiative later this spring. Having expended ammunition, better troops, and equipment it could leave RU defense overall weaker. But, I suspect Kyiv does not believe that time is on Ukraine's side. Wary of Russian entrenchment and seeking to avoid the perception of a stalemate, UA is likely to move sooner than later. That's been the trend thus far. Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive, but more significant in that it will allow UA to launch operations this spring knowing they have replacements secured.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:15 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
. But, I suspect Kyiv does not believe that time is on Ukraine's side. Wary of Russian entrenchment and seeking to avoid the perception of a stalemate, UA is likely to move sooner than later. That's been the trend thus far. Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive, but more significant in that it will allow UA to launch operations this spring knowing they have replacements secured.


I am more optimistic than the above comment. While I'm not an expert, I've worked in the military industrial complex long enough to have a sense of how they think. Taking the political aspect aside, the donating countries will not be pressuring Ukraine to start their offensive before it's time. Now that they have commits AFV, tanks and GLSBD, they will understand if Ukraine delay the offensive until all the new hardware is in place, even if it drags into summer. After all they are well aware that it was their intransigence that cause the delay.

bt
 
Noray
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 7:35 am

johns624 wrote:
I follow a Scottish Youtube vlogger named Steve Marsh. He just did a train journey from Krakow, Poland to Vilnius, Lithuania. At one of his stops, there a trainload of Marders on flat cars a few tracks over What's interesing is that they still have German markings on them. Go to the 13-14 minute mark in the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJBPvJtQ0WI


Not going to Ukraine then. They probably belong to the German contingent of NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group in Lithuania. https://mncne.nato.int/newsroom/news/20 ... for-action
 
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cjg225
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:36 pm

johns624 wrote:
I follow a Scottish Youtube vlogger named Steve Marsh. He just did a train journey from Krakow, Poland to Vilnius, Lithuania. At one of his stops, there a trainload of Marders on flat cars a few tracks over What's interesing is that they still have German markings on them. Go to the 13-14 minute mark in the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJBPvJtQ0WI

For a moment I thought, "Good Lord, we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel to help the Ukrainians. How are there even any Marders available outside of museums and collections?" thinking it was referring to the Marder III of World War II vintage. lol
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:32 pm

WTAF! Several layers of crazy and sinister - for Russia as much as Ukraine;
The video attached contains warnings.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ed-officer

A very different form of crazy, the age of the vehicle really and where it's deployed;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g5r_x5X3es
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Feb 07, 2023 7:34 pm

Germany Denmark and the Netherlands anmounced to deliver up to 178 Leopard 1 tanks on top of the Leo2.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 9NcCvtlFcJ
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 1:36 am

bikerthai wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
. But, I suspect Kyiv does not believe that time is on Ukraine's side. Wary of Russian entrenchment and seeking to avoid the perception of a stalemate, UA is likely to move sooner than later. That's been the trend thus far. Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive, but more significant in that it will allow UA to launch operations this spring knowing they have replacements secured.


I am more optimistic than the above comment. While I'm not an expert, I've worked in the military industrial complex long enough to have a sense of how they think. Taking the political aspect aside, the donating countries will not be pressuring Ukraine to start their offensive before it's time. Now that they have commits AFV, tanks and GLSBD, they will understand if Ukraine delay the offensive until all the new hardware is in place, even if it drags into summer. After all they are well aware that it was their intransigence that cause the delay.

bt


Yes, in fact Western influence resulted in them scaling back their counteroffensive plans around the time of the Kharkiv operation. But internal dynamics are a factor, too - a lot of Ukrainians want to see progress now, and their own positive messaging seems like it has frequently fostered unrealistic expectations about how quickly they can carry out effective counteroffensive operations. I base that in part on lurking in an English-speaking sub-reddit where a good number of Ukrainians participate.

There are also strategic concerns that include that Russia is likely to continue to improve their defenses and reconstitute their forces further. Note how frequently the discussion of potential for an additional round of Russian mobilization comes up, for example. Also keep in mind Russian efforts like increasing ammunition production, and the in-progress repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 1:57 pm

With the visit of the the Ukrainian President to the UK today, to meet his troops training here, addressing Parliament and no doubt with ministers from departments involved, the Prime Ministers Questions had an extra dimension, in a maybe clunky and obvious way to show bipartisan support, but if there are 'Kremlinoligists' presumably there are from the other direction looking for signs of fraying of support from the UK Parliament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82J1ZgEK6Nc

Takeways;
It sounds like some Ukrainian Marines are heading, I would suspect, for SF training here;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RM_Poole

The statement about fast jets does not mean they are getting Typhoons or anything like that, however the Hawk T.2 with a glass cockpit will provide experience with modern Western types, whatever they are and whenever they arrive.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:38 pm

GDB wrote:
With the visit of the the Ukrainian President to the UK today, to meet his troops training here, addressing Parliament and no doubt with ministers from departments involved, the Prime Ministers Questions had an extra dimension, in a maybe clunky and obvious way to show bipartisan support, but if there are 'Kremlinoligists' presumably there are from the other direction looking for signs of fraying of support from the UK Parliament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82J1ZgEK6Nc

Takeways;
It sounds like some Ukrainian Marines are heading, I would suspect, for SF training here;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RM_Poole

The statement about fast jets does not mean they are getting Typhoons or anything like that, however the Hawk T.2 with a glass cockpit will provide experience with modern Western types, whatever they are and whenever they arrive.


It says in the article below that pilots will likely be flying Typhoon. Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets? Unless, perhaps, European Typhoon users are confidentially considering passing T1 Typhoons onto Ukraine in due course.

https://www.defensenews.com/training-si ... er-pilots/
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:49 pm

art wrote:
Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets?


It would be useful as a political nudge nudge, wink wink, to pave the way for, or as part of, the American F-16 contribution.

bt
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 2:58 pm

Zelensky On Tour...

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... -offensive

Britain's King Charles will hold an audience with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his trip to the United Kingdom on Wednesday, Buckingham Palace said.

Zelensky is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and address Britain's parliament, as well as visit King Charles at his London residence.

Zelensky's trip to Britain will be his second foreign visit since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a year ago, and comes at a time when Kyiv is urging the West for more military support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will arrive in Paris on Wednesday evening following his visit to London, the Élysée Palace told AFP, confirming previous media reports.

Zelensky is then expected to head to Brussels for a European Union summit on Thursday.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:28 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets?


It would be useful as a political nudge nudge, wink wink, to pave the way for, or as part of, the American F-16 contribution.

bt


Well, if UK spent a a few million on giving some Ukrainian pilots joyrides in Typhoon trainers and as a result US sanctioned earlier supply of F-16, that would have been a few million well spent.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:43 pm

GDB wrote:
WTAF! Several layers of crazy and sinister - for Russia as much as Ukraine;
The video attached contains warnings.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ed-officer

The Russian system seems to excel at turning ordinary life into hell. Stalin's crazy, paranoid purges. The GULAG system. All of it totally senseless. Russians have a crazy concept of normalcy. They want to conquer their neighbor yet not have to make sacrifices themselves, so they put prisoners in military uniforms and hand them weapons. Then a totally predictable outcome happens, the prisoners beat their officers with shovels and refuseniks with sledge hammers. Hell to us, normal to them. Vranya in action.

GDB wrote:
A very different form of crazy, the age of the vehicle really and where it's deployed;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g5r_x5X3es

Again, totally normal for a nation who tells their people that their military is the second most powerful in the world ending up having to use sixty year old tanks, presumably because they never actually produced the modern tanks they showed on TV, or their military officers and/or politicians sold them off on the black market so they could have nice dachas and mistresses. Yet their citizens find anything odd about this. More vranya in action.

It's as if the US wanted to launch Desert Storm, and instead of finding Abrams tanks ready to go all they found was mothballed Patton tanks from the 1960s.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:58 pm

art wrote:
GDB wrote:
With the visit of the the Ukrainian President to the UK today, to meet his troops training here, addressing Parliament and no doubt with ministers from departments involved, the Prime Ministers Questions had an extra dimension, in a maybe clunky and obvious way to show bipartisan support, but if there are 'Kremlinoligists' presumably there are from the other direction looking for signs of fraying of support from the UK Parliament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82J1ZgEK6Nc

Takeways;
It sounds like some Ukrainian Marines are heading, I would suspect, for SF training here;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RM_Poole

The statement about fast jets does not mean they are getting Typhoons or anything like that, however the Hawk T.2 with a glass cockpit will provide experience with modern Western types, whatever they are and whenever they arrive.


It says in the article below that pilots will likely be flying Typhoon. Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets? Unless, perhaps, European Typhoon users are confidentially considering passing T1 Typhoons onto Ukraine in due course.

https://www.defensenews.com/training-si ... er-pilots/


I cannot see Typhoons and they would be the older Tranche 1’s being supplied, there is a debate (and no doubt funding arguments), around not retiring them early, rather upgrading them for say a pure AD tasking, easing pressure on the later properly swing role versions.
However, like with other more sophisticated systems, the UK could find, broker and fund equipment, as has been done from everything from Soviet designed ammo, AA guns and M109 SPG’s.
I understand South Africa are not using its Gripens, they also operate Hawk trainers and BAe was involved with not just those but also the SAAB fighter contract.
If SA don’t want the Gripens...just a thought.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:11 pm

Earlier this week an Ukrainain official mentioned that a plan has been agreed upon for fighter jets.


I guess we are seeing the start of executing this plan.

bt
 
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Phosphorus
Posts: 2132
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:50 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Earlier this week an Ukrainain official mentioned that a plan has been agreed upon for fighter jets.


I guess we are seeing the start of executing this plan.

bt


A circulating joke around Ukraine's social media in the last 24 hours -- Zelensky to his British hosts: I'm here with two important points on the agenda: to have some tea, and pick up some combat airplanes. The tea has been excellent, thank you very much. And now...
 
kelval
Posts: 161
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:09 pm

Not to forget that he's having a stay in Paris tonight, and that Macron, during last weeks interviews, seemed quite opened to giving away planes.
We have some good Mirage 2000 that are nearing their end of life and that are very A2A centric... Now would be the right time.
 
art
Posts: 5716
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:10 pm

GDB wrote:
art wrote:
It says in the article below that pilots will likely be flying Typhoon. Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets? Unless, perhaps, European Typhoon users are confidentially considering passing T1 Typhoons onto Ukraine in due course.

https://www.defensenews.com/training-si ... er-pilots/


I cannot see Typhoons and they would be the older Tranche 1’s being supplied, there is a debate (and no doubt funding arguments), around not retiring them early, rather upgrading them for say a pure AD tasking, easing pressure on the later properly swing role versions.


It is a different world now to the world of February 23rd, 2022. Governments need to buy new kit to strengthen their forces. UK could buy a bunch of Typhoon T4 for the RAF instead of retaining the T1's, thereby making them available to Ukraine.

GDB wrote:
I understand South Africa are not using its Gripens, they also operate Hawk trainers and BAe was involved with not just those but also the SAAB fighter contract. If SA don’t want the Gripens...just a thought.


IIRC the SA Gripens spent a year or two on the ground but a year or two ago SAAB got a contract to maintain them again. I presume that they are not available.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2383
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:16 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Earlier this week an Ukrainain official mentioned that a plan has been agreed upon for fighter jets.


I guess we are seeing the start of executing this plan.

bt

What about Zelensky visiting Paris tonight? The French were willing to send some Mirage2000 to Ukraine

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