art wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

art wrote:

Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets?

It would be useful as a political nudge nudge, wink wink, to pave the way for, or as part of, the American F-16 contribution.

bt

Well, if UK spent a a few million on giving some Ukrainian pilots joyrides in Typhoon trainers and as a result US sanctioned earlier supply of F-16, that would have been a few million well spent.

Are the early typhoons not strictly air defence, little to no air-to-ground capability?
That might be a way to avoid the image of supplying “offensive” weapons.

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

art wrote:

It says in the article below that pilots will likely be flying Typhoon. Is that a useful thing to do since opinion hitherto is that F-16 would be the western type supplied to Ukraine if the west does decide to supply fast jets? Unless, perhaps, European Typhoon users are confidentially considering passing T1 Typhoons onto Ukraine in due course.

https://www.defensenews.com/training-si ... er-pilots/

I cannot see Typhoons and they would be the older Tranche 1’s being supplied, there is a debate (and no doubt funding arguments), around not retiring them early, rather upgrading them for say a pure AD tasking, easing pressure on the later properly swing role versions.

It is a different world now to the world of February 23rd, 2022. Governments need to buy new kit to strengthen their forces. UK could buy a bunch of Typhoon T4 for the RAF instead of retaining the T1's, thereby making them available to Ukraine.

GDB wrote:

I understand South Africa are not using its Gripens, they also operate Hawk trainers and BAe was involved with not just those but also the SAAB fighter contract. If SA don’t want the Gripens...just a thought.

IIRC the SA Gripens spent a year or two on the ground but a year or two ago SAAB got a contract to maintain them again. I presume that they are not available.

I meant in respect to the RAF already, after years of cuts, being able to keep to its extensive NATO commitments, as well unseen events and UK airspace defence.
It is a different world right enough, making the NATO and UK AD commitments more important and in the case of the former, busier and more extensive than ever, from the Baltic’s to Romania, through Cyprus, all part of the reassurance of Allies threatened by Russia and if escalation happens to involve NATO, deterrence and if need be more.
We have not got enough of them as it is.

Mirage 2000’s recently retired but with a good radar air to air missile capability than certainly what Ukraine has now on the other hand, plus are available and a robust type.

petertenthije wrote:

Are the early typhoons not strictly air defence, little to no air-to-ground capability?
That might be a way to avoid the image of supplying “offensive” weapons.

In the short term, I don't think Ukraine need A to G attack aircraft as much as A to A (for counter missiles).
If they have aircrafts they will most likely not fly over disputed territory to do bombing runs anyway as the GLSDB can do much of those function and with faster response time as it can be integrated into existing artilery targeting network.

New jets will want to be able to shoot down missiles and perhaps launch deep strike missiles as well, or at least capable of launching Harpoons.

bt

Ukrainian TV footage of the President's visit, to his troops being trained at Bovingdon on Challenger 2's;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qssegd6AJk

Analysis of PMQ's, pertinent to Ukraine as it was different due to the visit, however while the UK has been at the forefront of military and training support, from before the start, there is a less rosy aspect to it;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFWsf-uTcA

The visit and the jet issue, Justin Bronk, who has been on a number of videos here, contributes;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ine-pilots

Lest we forget, we did though, as the second video above points out;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... sile-putin

Let's hope oligarchs take notice of the red ink:

Russia's Finance Ministry said Monday the country's budget deficit surged to 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.8 billion) in January, which by one measure puts President Vladimir Putin's economy back 25 years thanks to his invasion of Ukraine.

Nearly a year into his war against the Eastern European country, Putin's economic troubles appear to be growing, according to the ministry's latest figures. The numbers mark Russia's largest budget deficit for the first month of the year since at least 1998, Bloomberg reported.

The ministry said tax revenues from oil and gas plunged 46 percent in January 2023 compared with a year ago, while there was a 59 percent increase in federal budget expenditures due to the ongoing war.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-debt-bud ... 23-1779571

GDB wrote:

The visit and the jet issue, Justin Bronk, who has been on a number of videos here, contributes;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ine-pilots

A broader Rusi report on the state of the war found Russian fighters had remained highly effective and lethal against Ukrainian aircraft near the frontlines throughout the war, especially the Su-35S with the R-77-1 long-range missile and, in recent months, the Mig-31BM with the R-37 very long-range missile.

Interesting. It's the first time I read such a specific report about the effectiveness of the Russian air force in BVR engagements. Gripen+Meteor could return the favor and give some breathing space to the remaining Ukrainian air assets.

Revelation wrote:

Let's hope oligarchs take notice of the red ink:

Russia's Finance Ministry said Monday the country's budget deficit surged to 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.8 billion) in January, which by one measure puts President Vladimir Putin's economy back 25 years thanks to his invasion of Ukraine.

Nearly a year into his war against the Eastern European country, Putin's economic troubles appear to be growing, according to the ministry's latest figures. The numbers mark Russia's largest budget deficit for the first month of the year since at least 1998, Bloomberg reported.

The ministry said tax revenues from oil and gas plunged 46 percent in January 2023 compared with a year ago, while there was a 59 percent increase in federal budget expenditures due to the ongoing war.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-debt-bud ... 23-1779571

Some oligarchs are salivating over imminent departure of Western banks, like Austrian Raiffeisen and Italo-German Unicredit, from russia. Russia passed emergency regulation last year, and mother banks cannot just stop lending and start taking their money away. The money is trapped in Russia. Similarly, mother banks cannot sell their russian subsidiaries to who they like -- only to who Kremlin tells them to.

On the other hand, EU and ECB aren't thrilled with EU money financing russia's war (as a reminder, this war is on, since 2014. But until March 2022, nobody lifted a finger to strangle the monster, or at least not feed him so well).
For example, Raiffeisen Russia is officially confirming, that whoever is fighting russia's war against Ukraine, is getting loan holidays -- because russian banking regulations foresee that.

Of course, a bunch of oligarchs are standing by, to relieve poor European mother banks of their burdensome russian subsidiaries, at advantageous (to oligarchs) terms...

tomcat wrote:

GDB wrote:

The visit and the jet issue, Justin Bronk, who has been on a number of videos here, contributes;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ine-pilots

A broader Rusi report on the state of the war found Russian fighters had remained highly effective and lethal against Ukrainian aircraft near the frontlines throughout the war, especially the Su-35S with the R-77-1 long-range missile and, in recent months, the Mig-31BM with the R-37 very long-range missile.

Interesting. It's the first time I read such a specific report about the effectiveness of the Russian air force in BVR engagements. Gripen+Meteor could return the favor and give some breathing space to the remaining Ukrainian air assets.

Check out Ward Carroll's You Tube channel, he has done some interviews with Bronk and a face to face meeting recently, where this issue was discussed.

Russian applies for Darwin Award;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEwZ0Vv8x68

And wins.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... n-brussels

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that his country has intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova.

Speaking to European Union leaders in Brussels, Zelensky said he recently told Moldovan President Maia Sandu about the alleged scheme. “I have informed her that we have intercepted the plan of the destruction of Moldova by the Russian intelligence," Zelensky said through a translator.

The Ukrainian president said the documents showed “who, when and how" the plan would "break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova". Zelensky said the plan was very similar to the one devised by Russia to take over Ukraine.

The EU is sick of Russia pretending to be the victim.

EU calls on Russia to stop ‘absurd' claims of victimhood in war against Ukraine.

“There is no doubt that this Russian aggression is illegal under international law,” the EU delegation said in a statement during an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe meeting in Vienna, as quoted by Ukrinform on Feb. 9.

Ref: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 8909302784

One of the comment says Russia is "ashamed of nothing, offended by everything". It's a strange combination.

art wrote:

Russia appeared to make marginal territorial gains in Ukraine’s eastern regions during the 50th week of the war, as it threw new recruits into the front lines to probe defences with widely dispersed attacks, sometimes with devastating casualties for its troops.

“We’ve observed that the Russian occupation forces are redeploying additional assault groups, units, weapons, and military equipment to the east,” Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andriy Chernyak told the Kyiv Post on February 1.

Their orders were to capture the remaining parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, known as the Donbas, by March, Chernyak said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/9 ... ledge-more

Analysts say the invaders are pushing hard at Bakhmut and Vuhledar because these objectives enable a broader offensive, yet they are not able to take the objectives so the major offensive is stalled.

Some related info:

#Ukraine: At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast.
13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned.

Ref: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 1717772288

Putin's Vuhledar disaster: How Ukraine's 72nd Mech, with support of 1st Tank and 55th Artillery, clobbered 4 Russian manoeuvre brigades+2 arty brigades+SF in Russia's failed Jan 24-30 offensive

Ref: https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/ ... 8544316418

Shocking, I know, but yesterday's pictures of widows being given fur coats was staged for the cameras:

The action with the distribution of fur coats turned out to be staged, the "gifts" had to be returned.

The action of shame with the presentation of "trophy coats" to the widows of "Novorossia", which Dialog.UA had previously reported, turned out to be a staged event.

Information has spread on the Web that "gifts" from the authorities of the women were asked to be returned back. The presentation of fur coats was made for a staged picture. After the shooting, the organizers demanded that the "props" be returned back.

Ref: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... e_dead_dpr

Revelation wrote:

Shocking, I know, but yesterday's pictures of widows being given fur coats was staged for the cameras:

The action with the distribution of fur coats turned out to be staged, the "gifts" had to be returned.

The action of shame with the presentation of "trophy coats" to the widows of "Novorossia", which Dialog.UA had previously reported, turned out to be a staged event.

Information has spread on the Web that "gifts" from the authorities of the women were asked to be returned back. The presentation of fur coats was made for a staged picture. After the shooting, the organizers demanded that the "props" be returned back.

Ref: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... e_dead_dpr

Seems to be true. Interesting twist is that some widows were smart (or lucky) enough to disappear, scurrying away with the "trophies" (or loot?). It's those who hung around after cameras stopped, were asked to hand over fur coats back -- as these coats are of inferior quality, and much better coats will be brought to them later, with no fuss. Really??
You just can't make this stuff up.

Russians themselves seem to have come up with a picture, just how deep they are falling:
"we thought we've reached the very bottom of hell. And then, someone knocked into the surface we stood on, from below..."
(Мы думали, что достигли дна этого ада. А потом снизу постучали...)

Phosphorus wrote:

Russians themselves seem to have come up with a picture, just how deep they are falling:
"we thought we've reached the very bottom of hell. And then, someone knocked into the surface we stood on, from below..."
(Мы думали, что достигли дна этого ада. А потом снизу постучали...)

One quote I read said, 'The end of each chapter in the book of Russian History ends with the words "and then, things got worse"'...

It's been report/shown elsewhere I think, anyway more info on this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUeweLp58dE

Bit of a stupid vehicle really.

GDB wrote:

It's been report/shown elsewhere I think, anyway more info on this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUeweLp58dE

Bit of a stupid vehicle really.

Well, if I were infantry or an IFV driver, I'd hate to be at the business end of that thing.
That said, I am happy that adversary is stupid enough with their deployment doctrine of these Terminators. As single vehicles. Good for us. Eliminate them, fellas!

Revelation wrote:

The EU is sick of Russia pretending to be the victim.

EU calls on Russia to stop ‘absurd' claims of victimhood in war against Ukraine.

“There is no doubt that this Russian aggression is illegal under international law,” the EU delegation said in a statement during an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe meeting in Vienna, as quoted by Ukrinform on Feb. 9.

Ref: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 8909302784

One of the comment says Russia is "ashamed of nothing, offended by everything". It's a strange combination.

"Ashamed of nothing, offended by everything" is a good description. Always remember: the primary intended audience for Russian propaganda isn't the West. If anyone in the West is swayed by it, that is a secondary benefit that can weaken support for Ukraine, but the primary audience is the Russian people,. The Kremlin needs their people to believe it is necessity to ruin their economy and send their husbands, sons, and fathers to suffer death and disability in a foreign country.

Revelation wrote:

Some related info:

#Ukraine: At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast.
13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned.

Ref: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/16 ... 1717772288

Many of the vehicles have visibly damaged tracks. That was a very effective minefield. I think that is after an engagement reported to have taken place on February 6.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/statu ... zJ6YQtAAAA

But to be honest, it's hard to keep track of exactly what has been going on there because of the rapid pace of attacks. I think in the last 2 weeks Russia tried a large armored attack directly at Vuhledar with significant losses, then a series of numerous smaller attacks with mostly infantry trying to use the limited cover available to advance both directly at and around, and then another large armored attack on Feb 6 trying to move around Vuhledar. This Twitter open source intel poster periodically purchases recent satellite photos of areas of interest, and he has a helpful annotated one here showing his conclusions from geolocated imagery of the attempted advances to the east:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623 ... PS1ogtAAAA

I presume they tried to use one of the north-south tree lines as cover from observation posts in Vuhledar itself, but were spotted by observers spread out along the front and drones. They advanced in a column, perhaps following lead vehicles with mine-rollers, but that meant Ukraine could focus their fire on a narrow strip of land. It looks like Ukrainian artillery engaged them while they were in the minefield (perhaps deliberate timing), and the column tried to disperse, with disastrous results.

There's a few videos taken during the action circulating, but I'm not going to link them because they are graphic. It's a horrible thing to be a wounded infantryman near a BMP with a panicking crew.

There's lessons for both sides from engagements like this. Mines will also be one of the challenges for Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Vuhledar attacks, some losses;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uEZXUcmnZo

Some captured with reference from the ones reported above;
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian ... -incident/

Whether directly related to the above, a great shot, hopefully in more ways than one;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... Hd50CDJ_7m

Phosphorus wrote:

GDB wrote:

It's been report/shown elsewhere I think, anyway more info on this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUeweLp58dE

Bit of a stupid vehicle really.

Well, if I were infantry or an IFV driver, I'd hate to be at the business end of that thing.
That said, I am happy that adversary is stupid enough with their deployment doctrine of these Terminators. As single vehicles. Good for us. Eliminate them, fellas!

Interesting picture of the aftermath near Vuhledar:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... _offensive

Each of the black dots is a shell hole. Shows you what happens when you drive military vehicles into an area pre-sighted by your enemy's artillery and laced with land mines.

It reminds me of an account of a Japanese aviator who returned from trying to attack a US carrier task force in WWII. He was literally speechless after, he was so shocked by the waves of lot lead that had been shot at him. His mates led him to his bunk were he had a mental breakdown.

Vuhledar is a sign that whatever offensive actions the invaders are thinking of making won't go well:

Vuhledar is further evidence of the downward spiral in Russian military effectiveness. Armies that lack robust recruitment, training and industrial bases tend to become steadily less effective as losses deepen.

Desperate to maintain the pace of operations, the army replaces any well-trained, well-equipped troops who’ve been hurt or killed with an equal number of new recruits—but without taking the time, or expending the resources, to train and equip those new troops to the previous standard.

So the army gets less and less competent even as it inducts more and more new personnel. Incompetence leads to even greater losses, which prompts the army to double down: draft more green troops, train them even less and hurry them to the front even faster than it did the previous recruits.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... -vuhledar/

Their POWs verify the situation:

A captured Russian Marine was given the responsibility of leading the platoon because there was no other suitable candidate. Their commanders abandoned them while they transformed into cannon fodder.

This SOB traveled all the way from the Vladivostok area to fight in Ukraine, was given a field promotion due to lack of trained leaders, then he and his platoon were abandoned by their officers and they surrendered to the Ukrainians.

Keep in mind as a marine he's in one of the elite outfits.

I think whatever offensive they have upcoming will show even more their lack of trained leaders. Keep in mind to conduct offense you need more skills and more numbers. You need to adapt to changing circumstances quickly since you're more exposed than the defenders who are dug in. The invaders are showing they aren't very good at any of these things. Throwing in large numbers of poorly motivated, trained, fed and led conscripts isn't going to change the situation for them.

This is how things like the WWII "Marianas Turkey Shoot" happen. Japan knew they needed to attack to salvage their situation, but ended up feeding poorly trained novices into the awaiting well trained veteran US pilots who by that point in the war also had superior weapons.

While many, if not a majority of Wagner's prison recruits might have been killed or had life changing injuries, not all of them, what when they do survive their tour?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nary-group

Risking overflying and potentially crashing over a NATO country, do they want to get Article 5'd, or more likely put more determination and clear hurdles quicker for arms provision?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... st-ukraine

GDB wrote:

While many, if not a majority of Wagner's prison recruits might have been killed or had life changing injuries, not all of them, what when they do survive their tour?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nary-group

Risking overflying and potentially crashing over a NATO country, do they want to get Article 5'd, or more likely put more determination and clear hurdles quicker for arms provision?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... st-ukraine

It is a shame they could not shoot down a missile in their airspace.

It was presumably an error. No attack, so no Article 5. If it happened time and again, that might be different (deliberate use of a non-combatant's airspace to attack Ukraine).

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

While many, if not a majority of Wagner's prison recruits might have been killed or had life changing injuries, not all of them, what when they do survive their tour?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nary-group

Risking overflying and potentially crashing over a NATO country, do they want to get Article 5'd, or more likely put more determination and clear hurdles quicker for arms provision?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... st-ukraine

It is a shame they could not shoot down a missile in their airspace.

It was presumably an error. No attack, so no Article 5. If it happened time and again, that might be different (deliberate use of a non-combatant's airspace to attack Ukraine).

Reading it, seems that after Moldova, who have little in the way of defence and a collapsing government, the Cruise missile(s) were briefly in Romanian airspace, presumably with their heading being tracked they were not engaged by these;

https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/ITA_ES ... ed_eAP_ROU

Or more so, this;

https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/france ... nce-system

It's not necessarily fear of escalation, a RAF Typhoon out of Cyprus shot down a Russian drone over Syria in late 2021.

His articles are generally good, however David Axe seems to think the Challenger 2's are the modern day Churchill tanks of WW2, very well protected but slow.
As for the numbers, with 227 listed as available, 148 slated for upgrading to Challenger 3 - which as you would expect there is pressure now to increase, the other 150 odd I don't know what state they are in, which could impact on time needed to bring them to working order.
I wonder if he is also counting the ones sold to Oman, as well as engineering, driver training and bridge laying versions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... n-tactics/

A crack unit with the best MBT's Ukraine has at the moment, getting the new standard of best?
Simply that?

With regard to MBT's being supplied to Ukraine, how many will be supplied and crew trained

- in time for the spring resumption of mobility
- before autumn conditions reduce mobility

art wrote:

With regard to MBT's being supplied to Ukraine, how many will be supplied and crew trained

- in time for the spring resumption of mobility
- before autumn conditions reduce mobility

Well the Challengers seem most likely to be first, it’s just one government dealing with another.
It’s one standard of tank from one operator too.
The MBTs will be most needed in a major counter attack, likely after the Russian one though likely some offensive operations with existing and very familiar tanks, IFV’s and related, the best form of defence etc.....

The main systems for breaking the assault is one the Ukrainians are now pretty well stocked with, donations wise, artillery and other systems for fires.
As well as legacy and the stuff they have captured.
But the Western ones have the range and accuracy advantage.
So priority wise, I think the right call was made, yes it was done as the situation changed so did their requirements, even without the benefit of hindsight.

GDB wrote:

While many, if not a majority of Wagner's prison recruits might have been killed or had life changing injuries, not all of them, what when they do survive their tour?

Nothing is cheaper in Russia than a human life. My guess is that an average Ivan prefers inmates to be heading to the front lines, rather than him in the next round of mobilisation. An imminent threat vs. a hypothetical one in the future. With 80% losses among the recruited prisoners, the chances are quite high, that they are not coming back. Ever.
At the same time more power to Prigozhin... the stronger he gets, the sooner will Putin feel threatened and have no other choice but to take action against him/Wagners. Small-scale "civil-war"... i.e. regular military/security apparatus vs. Prigozhin's private army: a godsend for the Ukrainians.

GDB wrote:

art wrote:

With regard to MBT's being supplied to Ukraine, how many will be supplied and crew trained

- in time for the spring resumption of mobility
- before autumn conditions reduce mobility

Well the Challengers seem most likely to be first, it’s just one government dealing with another.
It’s one standard of tank from one operator too.
The MBTs will be most needed in a major counter attack, likely after the Russian one though likely some offensive operations with existing and very familiar tanks, IFV’s and related, the best form of defence etc.....

The main systems for breaking the assault is one the Ukrainians are now pretty well stocked with, donations wise, artillery and other systems for fires.
As well as legacy and the stuff they have captured.
But the Western ones have the range and accuracy advantage.
So priority wise, I think the right call was made, yes it was done as the situation changed so did their requirements, even without the benefit of hindsight.

Well, there was a lot of talk about a several dozens of Leo 2 being delivered to Ukraine by April or so but now it appears that most of the Leo 2 owners still need to confirm their pledge and the timeline of delivery (Canada seems to be moving ahead with their delivery though). As a stop gap measure, a triumvirat has formed to supply a hundred Leo 1A5 and here is a preview of the delivery schedule:

According to Pistorius, the first 20 to 25 Leopard 1 tanks will arrive in Ukraine before the summer.

https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-02-09/as-kyivs-allies-drag-feet-over-leopard-2-deliveries-berlin-starts-restoring-older-models.html

The way it goes, the bunch of Leo 2 will be available for a potential 2024 offensive. Are they all waiting for the Abrams to be delivered before sending their mighty Leo 2? I wonder what the Ukrainian crews are training on at the moment: Leo 1 or Leo 2?

tomcat wrote:

The way it goes, the bunch of Leo 2 will be available for a potential 2024 offensive. Are they all waiting for the Abrams to be delivered before sending their mighty Leo 2? I wonder what the Ukrainian crews are training on at the moment: Leo 1 or Leo 2?

Is the Leo 1 much superior to the T-72? If not, why bother with it (unless Ukraine needs to make up for tanks lost)?

art wrote:

Is the Leo 1 much superior to the T-72? If not, why bother with it (unless Ukraine needs to make up for tanks lost)?

In reality, only about 15% of tank loss are from tank on tank battle. The Leo 1 would still be useful by providing direct fire support for the infantry while protecting the crew from artilery and small arms.


Even when the Leo 2 arrives my bet is most of the Russian armor to be destroyed will be by artilery, including Excalibur shells. If I was the Ukrainian, I would rather destroy all Russian armor before they even get within range of a Leo 2.

bt

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

Risking overflying and potentially crashing over a NATO country, do they want to get Article 5'd, or more likely put more determination and clear hurdles quicker for arms provision?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... st-ukraine

It is a shame they could not shoot down a missile in their airspace.

It was presumably an error. No attack, so no Article 5. If it happened time and again, that might be different (deliberate use of a non-combatant's airspace to attack Ukraine).

It was not an attack on a Romanian target, but it was a violation of Romania's and Modolva's airspaces, which are part of their sovereign territory. This territory extends 12 nm from their coasts.

Civil overflights are allowed within the IASTA or other treaties, but of course, a missile is not a civil overflight. Romania has every right to intercept such missiles. As far as I know, they would have the right to intercept crewed Russian combat aircraft, as well, but due to the greater seriousness of doing so, I presume would first issue several warnings before actually firing on a crewed Russian combat aircraft.

Whether Romania actually fires, even at an unmanned target, would presumably include consideration for the safety of those on the ground.

It doesn't seem to be stated where this happened, but assuming it wasn't a malfunction, based on the statement the missiles entered Moldova first, then Romania, I would expect they were launched from somewhere off the coast of western Odesa Oblast, heading towards Lviv. That might be at the extreme of their range. Lviv is much more easily in reach from Belarus, from which Russia has fired air launched cruise missiles, but I could see them trying a strike from the Black Sea based on the expectation air defenses would be lighter in that direction. Some articles do mention Lviv being attacked today.

art wrote:

With regard to MBT's being supplied to Ukraine, how many will be supplied and crew trained

- in time for the spring resumption of mobility
- before autumn conditions reduce mobility

I've seen some some articles raise the possibly of accelerating training on the Leopards to six weeks to focus on giving experienced tank crews enough training to operate the new vehicles, but nothing confirmed.

But six weeks isn't enough to learn to operate per NATO doctrine. Info I see posted by the US Armor School at Fort Benning indicates crewmember training starts with 22 week course. Gunners receive 5 weeks of common gunnery training, and then vehicle specific training (Abrams, Bradley, etc) that is another 8 weeks covering maintaining and effectively using the primary weapons to be certified as master gunners. I don't seem to see tank commander training, but my understanding is tank commanders are promoted from gunners, and have additional training to learn to lead the tank crew to carry out the objectives given by the platoon commander.

To enable maneuver and combined arms tactics, lieutenants receive a 19 week course for officers on how to effectively lead an armored platoon, on top of having already received general tactical planning training as officers. Captains receive a 21 week course on armor leadership at the company level.

And then training as a unit would continue after completing armor school and receiving an assignment, including periodic rotations through the National Training Center at Fort Irwin to do large scale exercises.

Ukraine is not going to get all of that. It's going to be abbreviated to some degree, and I'm sure discussions between western staff and that of the Ukrainian units to receive the tanks is currently underway to determine what the right balance is between fielding the tanks more quickly, or getting the crews more training.

In short, I'm dubious Ukraine will be operating western tanks on the battlefield before late spring, but hopefully well before fall.

iamlucky13 wrote:

But six weeks isn't enough to learn to operate per NATO doctrine. Info I see posted by the US Armor School at Fort Benning indicates crewmember training starts with 22 week course. Gunners receive 5 weeks of common gunnery training, and then vehicle specific training (Abrams, Bradley, etc) that is another 8 weeks covering maintaining and effectively using the primary weapons to be certified as master gunners. I don't seem to see tank commander training, but my understanding is tank commanders are promoted from gunners, and have additional training to learn to lead the tank crew to carry out the objectives given by the platoon commander.

Since the majority of tanks Ukraine will be getting are non-M'1, thought to look for specifics of countries who use Leopards, ran across the below

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/po ... 023-01-31/
https://www.czdefence.com/article/first ... opard-tank

Do you think we will get a Ukraine version of "MiG Alley"???


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiG_Alley

art wrote:

If the games are to be politicised

Olympic Games have been politicised for quite a while. It is also worth nothing what kind of morally corrupt people chair or until very recently chaired international sports organisations such as the IOC, FIFA, IIHF, FIA...

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Do you think we will get a Ukraine version of "MiG Alley"???


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiG_Alley

Really? With all the BVR capable missiles, a WW2-ish dogfight would mean something went wrong….

UK MoD says the "vast majority" of mobiks are now deployed and Wagner has exhausted the pool of prisoners willing to fight, so the enemy is now facing the need to do another round of mobilization (and in turn another training cycle etc).



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ne_update/

We can see those mobiks are barely able to move the lines a few kilometers at staggering rates of loss.

This whole WW1 strategy of the enemy is just not working.

Revelation wrote:

Interesting picture of the aftermath near Vuhledar:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... _offensive

Video of what appears to be the same location:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... k_and_apc/

These soldiers really are as dumb as a sack of rocks.

Revelation wrote:

UK MoD says the "vast majority" of mobiks are now deployed and Wagner has exhausted the pool of prisoners willing to fight, so the enemy is now facing the need to do another round of mobilization (and in turn another training cycle etc).



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ne_update/

We can see those mobiks are barely able to move the lines a few kilometers at staggering rates of loss.

This whole WW1 strategy of the enemy is just not working.

It is widely reported that Russia has experienced very heavy losses in its attacks. I wonder how severe losses have been on the Ukrainian side.

I presume that the better equipped the UAF are, the lower their losses (in a given situation). Let's (the west) keep increasing and accelerating the supply of western kit and training, preferably on the basis of what Ukraine says it needs.

L410Turbolet wrote:

Nothing is cheaper in Russia than a human life. My guess is that an average Ivan prefers inmates to be heading to the front lines, rather than him in the next round of mobilisation. An imminent threat vs. a hypothetical one in the future. With 80% losses among the recruited prisoners, the chances are quite high, that they are not coming back. Ever.

At the same time more power to Prigozhin... the stronger he gets, the sooner will Putin feel threatened and have no other choice but to take action against him/Wagners. Small-scale "civil-war"... i.e. regular military/security apparatus vs. Prigozhin's private army: a godsend for the Ukrainians.

As per my earlier post, UK MoD says the current wave of mobiks are deployed, and we now see loss rates higher than ever in Ukraine, so it seems that threat is becoming more real by the day.

art wrote:

It is widely reported that Russia has experienced very heavy losses in its attacks. I wonder how severe losses have been on the Ukrainian side.

I presume that the better equipped the UAF are, the lower their losses (in a given situation). Let's (the west) keep increasing and accelerating the supply of western kit and training, preferably on the basis of what Ukraine says it needs.

The picture and video I just posted shows the advantages of the defender, especially when the invaders are poorly trained and led. The invaders drove their tanks and BMPs along a farm road. One hit a mine. Another drove around it to the left, it also hit a mine. The next drove around to the right and it also hit a mine. Then artillery located the vehicles trapped behind them. Many vehicles disabled and presumably many KIA too, for zero Ukrainian losses.

As I once wrote here, typically invaders need 3x-4x the resources of defenders. This video from the Vuhledar region shows why. Also, picture how it goes for infantry trying to storm across no man's land in the face of manned trenches ala WW1. This is what is going on in Bakhmut. I'm sure there are Ukrainian losses in that situation, but far more for the invaders. The Ukrainian leadership has communicated that in Bakhmut they are only staying there while they can extract favorable results from being on the defense, and will fall back when they can't. Of course they will fall back on another line of prepared defenses so the cycle will repeat.

The invaders are on the offensive because it's good for morale. They need to be seen as taking territory for the morale of their troops and their home population. The Ukrainians can maintain morale on defense because they're defending their homeland. Eventually the Ukrainians want to go on the offense to recover their territory but are awaiting favorable conditions to do so. They want to have superior manpower and weapons and to be past the spring rainy season. They want to attack an area where the enemy has difficulty with mobility and logistics. To me this suggests the "spring offensive" may be delayed and the target will be down south to cut off the land bridge to Crimea, but who knows how things will go. All I know is so far the enemy's mobilized troops are performing poorly.

Revelation wrote:

To me this suggests the "spring offensive" may be delayed and the target will be down south to cut off the land bridge to Crimea, but who knows how things will go. All I know is so far the enemy's mobilized troops are performing poorly.

So we know how to defend against Russian armor driven by under-trained crew. Precision artilery. We know how to defend against under-trained infantry. Mass artilery.

We see now all this hand wringing about getting tanks to help defend Bakhmut and other places was misplaced. You defend with lots of mortars, tubes and rockets.

You take time to properly train your tank crew so they do not do what the Russian just did.

bt

Could the war drag on for years ?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/11/wagner-owner-says-war-in-ukraine-will-drag-on-for-years.html

About fighters for Ukraine, this has a bearing on the wisdom or otherwise of Ukrainian pilots training on Typhoon:

The logistics of different countries sending a variety of old models would be "forbidding", the Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi told the BBC.

And not all of the newer models suit Ukraine's war needs. Recent generations of the UK's Typhoon jet aren't "optimised for flying at low altitudes, which is what Ukraine has been forced to do because of the Russian air defence threat," Mr Joshi said.

Justin Bronk from the Rusi think tank said giving Typhoons to Ukraine would be a "very expensive symbolic gesture". He observed that most of Ukraine's airbases were dispersed and hidden at the beginning of the war to avoid being targeted by Russian missiles.

The move resulted in Ukraine's air force operating from "relatively austere dispersed airbases" and "short-field" runways with rough surfaces.

UK MP Bob Seely, who served in the UK armed forces, said that Typhoon jets would struggle to operate under such conditions.

"You have to have a plane which is versatile and flexible and can be used when your enemy is bombing your runways and your hangers," Mr Seely told the BBC. "It's got to be a practical offering, my worry is [the Typhoon] is not practical."

Ukraine would need a jet with greater versatility and landing flexibility, like the Swedish-made Gripen jet, he added.

"A Gripen is a reasonably simple plane and very cheap by modern standards, it's good value, it's versatile...it's a useable plane and is useable by the Ukrainians in a relatively short time frame," Mr Seely said.

"It is designed for short take off and to cope with a short rough runway, it comes with kit in a box, almost like an Ikea plane."

Sweden has so far ruled out supplying Gripen jets to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64587197

art wrote:

About fighters for Ukraine, this has a bearing on the wisdom or otherwise of Ukrainian pilots training on Typhoon:

The logistics of different countries sending a variety of old models would be "forbidding", the Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi told the BBC.

And not all of the newer models suit Ukraine's war needs. Recent generations of the UK's Typhoon jet aren't "optimised for flying at low altitudes, which is what Ukraine has been forced to do because of the Russian air defence threat," Mr Joshi said.

7

UkAF flies low because they are at a severe disadvantage on air superiority fighters, not just because of ground AA.

Typhoon can contest RuAF air assets so that CAS has a bit more wriggle room and in turn make Russian CAS attempts riskier.

If the west keeps feeding radar/satellite data to those fighters it can really tilt the balance. On their own the effect will be much more limited.

art wrote:

About fighters for Ukraine, this has a bearing on the wisdom or otherwise of Ukrainian pilots training on Typhoon:

The logistics of different countries sending a variety of old models would be "forbidding", the Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi told the BBC.

And not all of the newer models suit Ukraine's war needs. Recent generations of the UK's Typhoon jet aren't "optimised for flying at low altitudes, which is what Ukraine has been forced to do because of the Russian air defence threat," Mr Joshi said.

Justin Bronk from the Rusi think tank said giving Typhoons to Ukraine would be a "very expensive symbolic gesture". He observed that most of Ukraine's airbases were dispersed and hidden at the beginning of the war to avoid being targeted by Russian missiles.

The move resulted in Ukraine's air force operating from "relatively austere dispersed airbases" and "short-field" runways with rough surfaces.

UK MP Bob Seely, who served in the UK armed forces, said that Typhoon jets would struggle to operate under such conditions.

"You have to have a plane which is versatile and flexible and can be used when your enemy is bombing your runways and your hangers," Mr Seely told the BBC. "It's got to be a practical offering, my worry is [the Typhoon] is not practical."

Ukraine would need a jet with greater versatility and landing flexibility, like the Swedish-made Gripen jet, he added.

"A Gripen is a reasonably simple plane and very cheap by modern standards, it's good value, it's versatile...it's a useable plane and is useable by the Ukrainians in a relatively short time frame," Mr Seely said.

"It is designed for short take off and to cope with a short rough runway, it comes with kit in a box, almost like an Ikea plane."

Sweden has so far ruled out supplying Gripen jets to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64587197

Recent generations of Typhoons are armed with an array of systems like Storm Shadow, Brimstone, LGB’s, as well as the modern IR and BVR missiles.
The low level doctrine, while still trained for, was from the Cold War against the large scale Warsaw Pact defenses, it ended in the first Gulf War once it was clear the Iraqi AF weren’t going to contest air superiority and as the AD defence were steadily eroded.
Remember as part of a massive Coalition air campaign.

Aside from the fact that the RAF are not exactly overburdened with fast jets, even supplying Tranche 1 Typhoons which could contest the Russian aircraft, as stated would need fixed, relatively large and vulnerable airfields, even allowing for increasing Ukrainian air defenses.
Plus, not noted in the report, Typhoon is a multi national project, including Germany, which could stop any supply of them.

Gripen is the best Western choice but availability.........

GDB wrote:

Aside from the fact that the RAF are not exactly overburdened with fast jets, even supplying Tranche 1 Typhoons which could contest the Russian aircraft, as stated would need fixed, relatively large and vulnerable airfields, even allowing for increasing Ukrainian air defenses.
Plus, not noted in the report, Typhoon is a multi national project, including Germany, which could stop any supply of them.

Gripen is the best Western choice but availability.........

I think that any thought of training Ukrainian pilots on tranche 1 Typhoon is flawed and misguided

1 the other Eurofighter partners may not agree to a transfer of aircraft to Ukraine
2 the aircraft is not suitable to conditions at the bases Ukraine is reported to be using
3 the aircraft lacks good A2G capability
4 RAF only has 30 tranche 1 Typhoon (10 of which are stored)

In view of points above, Typhoon is far more unsuitable than F-21. IMO time and money spent training, arranging logistics for Typhoon would at best produce little beneficial result while preventing Ukrainian pilots training on F-21 - with a large pool of aircraft - or operating in Ukraine on the type they normally fly.

A little bit of lateral thinking:

1 ask Sweden for use of 20-40 Gripen C/D in Ukraine, other countries to provide air cover similar to cover given to Iceland/Baltic republics
2 ask Sweden to provide training services and Gripen D to get pilots, maintenance crew trained
3 Sweden wants to join NATO because of Russia invading Ukraine so has an incentive to co-operate and wants to help Ukraine anyway
4 Ask South Africa for use of as many of their Gripens as can be secured (I think they only have a handful of trained pilots at the moment so don't need all 36)
5 I seem to remember reading that SAAB produced around 10 white tail Gripen C/D in anticipation of an order that has not materialised. If true, EU can finance them

art wrote:

1 ask Sweden for use of 20-40 Gripen C/D in Ukraine, other countries to provide air cover similar to cover given to Iceland/Baltic republics

If you really really want to be realistic or lateral thinking, you should know that unless Russia bombs a NATO member the air cover option is a non-starter.
Heck look at how long it has taken to get MBT's and they are not even there yet, so no idea why folks want to keep going on about fast jets.
Better to continue to get air defense in-country to ultimately kill the unmanned weapon as a civilian hammer, which will also prevent Russia from using their a/c, continue to build up Ukraine supplies of shells and other ammunition to allow them to defend in place and get longer range fires.
It should be noted that either all Russian staff who work at ammo dumps within Himars range are now non-smokers or the Russians have actually gotten wise and moved the ammo dumps further away from the battle field, there have been no recent fireworks from careless smoking.

Good article from CNN with 2 captured wagner prison mercenaries. Nothing really new that we did not know off, but still good to hear that what has been said is correct.

“ “They lined everyone up in the yard and Prigozhin started recruiting people,” he said. “[Prigozhin] said he had the authority from higher-up bodies to take anyone from the prison, regardless of the crimes or the prison term. The ideal candidates are murderers, robbers.”
The selection process was so rudimentary that older prisoners only had to show they could march a few yards, one of the prisoners said. “They took almost everyone.”” One way for putin to clear out the prisons for new arrivals.

Also
““We thought we’d be fighting Poles and various mercenaries. Germans. We didn’t think anyone was left in the Ukrainian army there. We thought they’d left the country,” said one.
“So it became clear they were just spinning lies to get us to enter into battle with the Ukrainians. No one really thought that the AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] would actually fight for their own country, for their loved ones. We only learned this after going in there.””
They thought it would be a walk in the park for 6 months, even guys that had 12 days left on a prison sentence signed up.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/12/europe/w ... index.html

Russia attacked the Zatoka bridge in Odessa with what appears to be a maritime drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLaGjHQ0g8A

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 80483.html

Russian SPG's, their most effective, have had a bad few days;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ufDMB3yE30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us2RDdfTbb4

With recent footage of how mines have disrupted Russian attacks, they will send in vehicles to clear them;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6sHpuaapdY

This weeks Perun video;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlpZf1hpQYM

On small drones and loitering munitions.

art wrote :
4 Ask South Africa for use of as many of their Gripens as can be secured (I think they only have a handful of trained pilots at the moment so don't need all 36)

If this is meant seriously, I wonder how something like this could be possible with the current relations between Russia and South Africa?
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/01/25/lavrov-visits-south-africa-pretoria-defends-military-drills-with-russia-china_6013000_4.html