GDB wrote:

Russia attacked the Zatoka bridge in Odessa with what appears to be a maritime drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLaGjHQ0g8A

It's time to give the Ukes weapons to take out the Crimean bridge.

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

Russia attacked the Zatoka bridge in Odessa with what appears to be a maritime drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLaGjHQ0g8A

It's time to give the Ukes weapons to take out the Crimean bridge.

Might well be possible to integrate Storm Shadow with a Ukraine AF SU-27, SU-24 has been mentioned, even hinted at in defence circles but they lost most of them, though they are reportedly refurbishing stored ones, though spares for these that could be sourced outside Ukraine seems non existent given the types users.
Not that it is likely easy for SU-27.

Doubt a Mig-29 could, a much bigger missile than AGM-88.

GDB wrote:

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

Russia attacked the Zatoka bridge in Odessa with what appears to be a maritime drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLaGjHQ0g8A

It's time to give the Ukes weapons to take out the Crimean bridge.

Might well be possible to integrate Storm Shadow with a Ukraine AF SU-27, SU-24 has been mentioned, even hinted at in defence circles but they lost most of them, though they are reportedly refurbishing stored ones, though spares for these that could be sourced outside Ukraine seems non existent given the types users.
Not that it is likely easy for SU-27.

Doubt a Mig-29 could, a much bigger missile than AGM-88.

French Navy has a surface-launched version of the Storm Shadow. They even declared a sub-launched variant of the Storm Shadow operational, last year.

I wonder, if there is a possibility to retrofit existing stock, for land-launch?

Phosphorus wrote:

GDB wrote:

johns624 wrote:

It's time to give the Ukes weapons to take out the Crimean bridge.

Might well be possible to integrate Storm Shadow with a Ukraine AF SU-27, SU-24 has been mentioned, even hinted at in defence circles but they lost most of them, though they are reportedly refurbishing stored ones, though spares for these that could be sourced outside Ukraine seems non existent given the types users.
Not that it is likely easy for SU-27.

Doubt a Mig-29 could, a much bigger missile than AGM-88.

French Navy has a surface-launched version of the Storm Shadow. They even declared a sub-launched variant of the Storm Shadow operational, last year.

I wonder, if there is a possibility to retrofit existing stock, for land-launch?

A land based SCALP modification might work. It has with Brimstone.

After the battle;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn1w7GJKMbA

A general report on that and surrounding region;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07fklxrJiI

Russia seems to be losing the infrastructure war.

The issue around resupply of munitions, a Perun video went into this some weeks back in greater detail;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l3XShOfLIQ

Analysis of the reported early offensive;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thh3mV_wrkY

Early due to political pressure?
Speaking of which;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... up-kremlin

How Russia got drones from Iran;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nto-russia

And finally, op-ed, framed from within a UK political context but essentially, what the stakes are internationally, how we got here but also generally speaking, the response has been certainly greater than Putin ever imagined;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -crack-now

Impact of 155mm artilery deployed mines.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2 ... f-Vuhledar.

These mine can be deployed as needed and re-deployed in the same area if Russian tanks blow holes in the mine field .

bt

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

Russia attacked the Zatoka bridge in Odessa with what appears to be a maritime drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLaGjHQ0g8A

It's time to give the Ukes weapons to take out the Crimean bridge.

If Ukraine had never given up its heavier weapons all those years ago Russia wouldn’t be invading at all.

Ukraine needs longer range weapons the better to defend itself and for some “attitude adjustment” for the cronies in charge of Russia.

An in depth discussion with Ward Carroll and Justin Bronk, from RUSI, on the subject of Western fighters for Ukraine, the issues, challenges, cost/benefit;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5pr0MUGn9k

I do agree with Bronk's conclusions and choice if a type were to be provided.

bikerthai wrote:

Impact of 155mm artilery deployed mines.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2 ... f-Vuhledar.

These mine can be deployed as needed and re-deployed in the same area if Russian tanks blow holes in the mine field .

Many of the explosions seen in the videos seem rather large for RAAM or similar mines (Germany has sent Ukraine the similar AT-2, which is deployed by MLRS, and presumably also HIMARS). From an online copy of the US Army FM 20-32: Mine/Countermine Operations, RAAM uses either M70 or M73 mines. These are small 1.7 kg mines using magnetic fuse and a self-forging fragment warhead propelled by 0.6 kg of explosives, intended to penetrate the thin bottom armor of a vehicle or damage a track. That's slightly smaller than the 2.6 kg projectile of an RPG-7, which produces a significantly smaller explosion than seen in the Vuhledar videos. I found an example of an RPG-7 live fire exercise on Youtube for comparison.

I think many of the vehicles disabled in the recent attacks on Vuhledar hit conventional mines like the ubiquitous Russian-designed TM-62 (M15 is a comparable US mine), which have a much larger explosive charge of 7.5 kg. It certainly would have been possible for Ukraine to emplace large minefields of conventional anti-tank mines, considering how long Russia has been attacking in the Vuhledar direction.

Furthermore, due to unexploded ordinance risks with scatterable mines, which are more difficult to document the location of for later removal, the RAAM's self-destruct after 4 hours (M73) or 48 hours (M70). They're good for filling in gaps or responding to movements in unexpected directions, but it looks like Russia is encountering well-prepared defenses that I think includes extensive conventional mine fields in the Vuhledar area.

One other worthwhile topic to discuss is the lessons for Ukraine in their expected offensives against Russian defenses that are likely increasingly better prepared than they were in the fall. For that, I start by referring referring to this brief discussion involving a US analyst who was previously a Marine officer and a US Army armor officer:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1624 ... nC9YwtAAAA

In summary: Why is Russia having so much trouble with minefields? Because minefields genuinely are difficult to deal with. In the US, breaching operations are planned at the company or battalion level, because of the resources required. There are reports that Russia is often not using mine-clearing equipment as intended (I assume because it reduces mobility), and even when they do use it, Ukraine is likely trying to close the lanes created with RAAM's.

Yet Russia is operating multiple brigades around Vuhledar and still unable to conduct effective offensives. It appears Russia's leadership is forcing them to continue attacking Vuhledar without building up the resources to succeed. They also seem to only gradually be broadening their offensive effort to try encircling Vuhledar, rather than attacking it head-on.

This is a task that requires significant coordination. From FM 20-32 above, there are multiple chapters dealing with breaching and route clearing. The basic tactic is to, of course, first to scout minefield locations, potential routes around them, or defenses that might make alternative routes less favorable than breaching. If an obstacle must be breached, then the breaching force is supported by a large volume of direct and indirect suppressing fire and smoke while tanks with mine clearing blades clear lanes through the minefield, with at least one lane per company. They are particularly vulnerable because the speed with the blade lowered is less than 10 km/hr (6 mph), and they have to keep their gun turned so it is not over the blades due to the potential effects of the blade detonating mines. The manual says to expect up to 50% of vehicles in the breaching force to be disabled - definitely a harrowing job (sorry...I couldn't resist)

The breaching force is followed by engineers to mark the lane, and then as quickly as possible by the assault force (which might previously have been the force providing suppressing fire) to attack the enemy lines to eliminate their ability to fire on the breached area. That then allows engineers to widen the breach area, and ultimately to eliminate the obstacle.

Report from Vuhledar;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nce-donbas

Though Bakhmut looks bad, as stated allies might be advising a different focus from Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... closing-in

Drone attack on an unmanned OP;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2bC5ibl8ZM

Likely HIMARS strike;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OD8lwNyIfAQ

Satellite images of that Ukrainian bridge after the Russian drone attack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zE5HwYWrtg

When a tossed turret sticks the landing:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... somewhere/

It turns out that mines delivered via 155mm artillery turned the tide at Vuhledar:

Earlier today, a Russian Wagner associated telegram account posted photos of several US-supplied Ukrainian M70 Remote Anti-armour Mines (RAAM), which are deployed via 155mm artillery.

They are a 155mm artillery shell with 9 anti-tank mines crammed inside. The shell is fired over a field. An airburst fuse pops the case open in the air, thus scattering the nine mines to the ground below.

This means that defenders can mine wide approaches without exposing engineers to enemy fire on dangerous missions to lay the mines. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing in Vuhledar.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... eapon_that

Those little guys sure do pack a punch! Russian sources note that these vehicles were destroyed on routes that had already been supposedly cleared by combat engineers. That’s the beauty of these rounds—Ukraine can plug any hole immediately.

Russia has reported seeing them around the entire front lines, from Kreminna-Svatove up north, all the way down to here. Undoubtedly more have been laid on the approach to Zaporizhzhia, in case Russia tries to advance in that direction.

Yesterday, Russia resumed its attacks on Vuhledar, but this time, they lacked armor. Just like around Bakhmut, Russia attacked with human waves of hapless infantry.

Source: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2 ... f-Vuhledar

RAAMS is effective against armored vehicles. The mines are expelled from the rear of the projectile over the target. After ground impact and roll, the mine is armed and ready to detonate upon sensing a proper armored vehicle signature (electromagnetic). A percentage of the nine RAAMS mines are equipped with an antidisturbance device. RAAMS is highly effective when used in conjunction with the ADAM mine, which helps prevent neutralization by enemy ground troops. There are nine RAAMS mines per 155-mm projectile. Minefield densities and self-destruct times are the same as ADAM (M741 short-destruct, M718 long-destruct).

Source: https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/raam.htm

So, instead of having to send out your own troops in advance to dig holes in roads to install pressure-sensitive mines, now you just send some shells towards a road you can tell the enemy is about to use to install the mines, and the electro-magnetic signature of a heavy vehicle will set them off.

This again shows the advantages a defender has: they can stay concealed while the invader has to expose themselves.

As mentioned in the quoted articles, this also shows that Ukraine will also have a difficult time once it decides to go on the offensive.

It reminds me of why Eisenhower said he was thankful for the Battle of the Bulge: the Germans had brought their assets out into the open where it was easier to shoot them then when they were behind the Western Wall.

Revelation wrote:

When a tossed turret sticks the landing:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... somewhere/

This is a very fascinating photo. The explosive force would have to be massive to lift, throw the heavy turret high enough for the barrel to stick the way it has, what I found most interesting is how the reactive armour, and turret machine gun appear to be intact. Post explosion, turret toss with main gun sticking like a lawn dart, One in a million toss.

hh65man wrote:

Revelation wrote:

When a tossed turret sticks the landing:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... somewhere/

This is a very fascinating photo. The explosive force would have to be massive to lift, throw the heavy turret high enough for the barrel to stick the way it has, what I found most interesting is how the reactive armour, and turret machine gun appear to be intact. Post explosion, turret toss with main gun sticking like a lawn dart, One in a million toss.

I've actually seen a fair few images like this from the conflict

There is probably someone here who can explain it better, but I believe this type of tank has a weak point in the armor. The tank's munitions are stored beneath the turret, and if the weak point is breached this ammunition is often triggered, causing a catastrophic explosion. There are videos of turrets being blown high into the air, some hundreds of feet, and sometimes they come back down like lawn darts.

PlymSpotter wrote:

hh65man wrote:

Revelation wrote:

When a tossed turret sticks the landing:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... somewhere/

This is a very fascinating photo. The explosive force would have to be massive to lift, throw the heavy turret high enough for the barrel to stick the way it has, what I found most interesting is how the reactive armour, and turret machine gun appear to be intact. Post explosion, turret toss with main gun sticking like a lawn dart, One in a million toss.

I've actually seen a fair few images like this from the conflict

There is probably someone here who can explain it better, but I believe this type of tank has a weak point in the armor. The tank's munitions are stored beneath the turret, and if the weak point is breached this ammunition is often triggered, causing a catastrophic explosion. There are videos of turrets being blown high into the air, some hundreds of feet, and sometimes they come back down like lawn darts.

Those Ukrainians training on Western tanks now, in the UK, Germany, likely Poland too, will notice that they have, unlike the 3 crew Soviet/Russian models with an autoloader, a fourth crew member as loader and in part due to this, the ammunition is stored in a much more protective fashion.
That and the much better armour protection generally.
The tanks they are used to were designed for large conscript armies to be used in large numbers and they and the crews essentially expendable.

PlymSpotter wrote:

There is probably someone here who can explain it better, but I believe this type of tank has a weak point in the armor.

Others can explain the issue with ammo stored in the hull instead of behind the turret.

As for sticking like lawn darts, the only explanation I can think of, is the front of the turret usually have the thickest armour. Add to that, the mass of the barrel and breach would tend to cause the front end to point down due to gravity.

The other factor is geometry. If a turret is spinning when coming down, the barrel is at the farthest point of the spining arch, so it has the greatest probability of hitting the ground first.

bt

It appears that Netherlands and Denmark won't be sending any Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, after all. On the one hand, maybe they figured out how few they actually had and they needed them, themselves. On the other hand, if Ukraine put them to really good use, they wouldn't be needing them anytime soon.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/denmark-neth ... 00027.html

Interesting that Milley is willing to use the past tense in saying Russia has "lost":

A little less than a year since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has “lost strategically, operationally, and tactically,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley said from Brussels on Tuesday.

“Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance, and act with impunity. He was wrong,” the top US general said. “Ukraine remains free, they remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger, and Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost — they’ve lost strategically, operationally, and tactically, and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.”

Ref: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... 12354b705d

I mean, the guy is well-connected, is paid to "know stuff", right?

I read another source that said while senior Russian governmental leaders are losing faith in Putin, Putin himself is just as convinced as ever that he's doing the right thing. In a way Milley is re-enforcing Putin's world view by suggesting that he as the most senior general of the world's biggest superpower is speaking for the entire globe.

Revelation wrote:

Interesting that Milley is willing to use the past tense in saying Russia has "lost":

No difference to this.

From wiki.

Yamamoto did believe that Japan could not win a protracted war with the United States

bt

Revelation wrote:

In a way Milley is re-enforcing Putin's world view by suggesting that he as the most senior general of the world's biggest superpower is speaking for the entire globe.

I see where you're coming from, but I think if Miley had offered Putin milk, cookies, and eternal friendship Putin would still think and act in the exact same way.

You don't overcome decades of grudges and blame quickly. If ever.

johns624 wrote:

It appears that Netherlands and Denmark won't be sending any Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, after all. On the one hand, maybe they figured out how few they actually had and they needed them, themselves.

Or any spare tanks they have were actually just that . . . to be used for spare parts and not in any condition to be updated and sent to the front line

Arguably, from Yeltsin onwards, the Russian leadership, civilian and military, has been rotten to the core.

What's happening in Ukraine isn't without precedent. It's happened in Abkhazia, Ossetia/Georgia, the Balkans, Chechnya and elsewhere. At the heart of it is an Orthodox ethno-religious psyche that they're better than everyone around them. Often these conflicts were preceeded by FSB/KGB inside jobs like the apartments blown up in '99 or other pretexts like protecting the local population.

There are some superb documentaries available on youtube that touch on these events further. Alas, most of them are graphic:

"The Betrayed" (1995) Chechen War

Assassination of Russia

This one has interviews from Serb leaders which were then used against them at the Hague:

Death of Yugoslavia

There was another series made by the brother ? of Louis Theroux but its name escapes me.

Here's a couple select Twitter posts I found very interesting about the experience of a soldier, Roman Trokhymets, who is currently stationed near Bakhmut. My understanding is Roman is a psychologist who joined the army after the war started. He speaks English and periodically posts videos from his position, currently near Bakhmut.

Roman relaxing before the war:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RTrokhymetsr ... r3hootAAAA

Roman relaxing during the war:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RTrokhymetsr ... r3hootAAAA

Discussing why he fights:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RomanTrokhym ... bXqIotAAAA

Commentary on non-obvious things about the war:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RomanTrokhym ... qjysIsAAAA

Also, you can sometimes order pizza or sushi in advanced positions (if you find a crazy driver and pay a hefty fee).

Revelation wrote:

When a tossed turret sticks the landing:

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... somewhere/

If you start typing "T-72 L...", Google now autosuggests "T-72 lollipop."

Some have suggested displaying more turrets like this as a warning to Russia in a slightly less macabre fashion than the more ancient version. Others have suggested painting them as sunflowers, which I suppose has the same meaning.

johns624 wrote:

It appears that Netherlands and Denmark won't be sending any Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, after all. On the one hand, maybe they figured out how few they actually had and they needed them, themselves. On the other hand, if Ukraine put them to really good use, they wouldn't be needing them anytime soon.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/denmark-neth ... 00027.html

Apparently at the request of German, in the case of the Netherlands, since those MBT's were allocated as the main Dutch contribution to the joint readiness battlegroup.
The Canadian ones, albeit 4, are in Poland.
The bulk of them will come from Germany and Poland, though Norway is still sending some. But for decent numbers, it has to be the bigger nations.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/14/euro ... index.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0L2SACaw8XM

More on that;
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/worl ... to-Ukraine

Speaking of tanks;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... te-ukraine

GDB wrote:

Apparently at the request of German, in the case of the Netherlands, since those MBT's were allocated as the main Dutch contribution to the joint readiness battlegroup.

I had wondered about that, since I already knew that they were leased vehicles. You can't give away something that you don't own.
While I agree that after the Cold War ended, that militaries should be downsized, I don't understand why some countries entirely got rid of their armoured forces. You don't always need a tank, but when you need a tank, nothing else will do. Both Netherlands and Belgium got rid of their tanks. Canada came close but after realizing that they could be of use in A-stan, they didn't. They still don't have enough, IMO. Any medium or larger NATO style army should be able to field an armoured brigade with 1bn of tanks, 2bns of IFVs, a bn of SPGs and engineers, aviation and logistics assets allowing them to be self supporting.

What's coming;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUPH_JswlYU

One maybe gone, damaged, though a valuable asset;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c39BKCHIVGo

johns624 wrote :
I had wondered about that, since I already knew that they were leased vehicles. You can't give away something that you don't own.

First of all, that is correct. However, the Netherlands wanted to buy (back) these tanks and hand them over to the Ukraine, but this was rejected by Germany from a military point of view (not politically), which is another matter
Belgium was also interested in buying LEO-1 back and making it fit again for Ukraine, but the arms dealer's buy-back price is simply unacceptable !!! He (the dealer) bought between 10 and 15000 euros and now wants 500,000 euros per piece.
sorry source in German only :
https://brf.be/national/1685434/
more about the dealer company :
https://www.oiplandsystems.com/oip-land-systems/
I am of the opinion that Ukraine needs air defense as the most important thing and heavy artillery to make it clear to the enemy here you only have losses!

oldJoe wrote:

Belgium was also interested in buying LEO-1 back and making it fit again for Ukraine, but the arms dealer's buy-back price is simply unacceptable !!! He (the dealer) bought between 10 and 15000 euros and now wants 500,000 euros per piece.!

I'm not sure on why anyone would expect an arms dealer to behave in any other way.

JJJ wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

Belgium was also interested in buying LEO-1 back and making it fit again for Ukraine, but the arms dealer's buy-back price is simply unacceptable !!! He (the dealer) bought between 10 and 15000 euros and now wants 500,000 euros per piece.!

I'm not sure on why anyone would expect an arms dealer to behave in any other way.

I also find it interesting that a private arms dealer would be able to buy that many tanks. Aren't most tank sales between governments?

johns624 wrote:

JJJ wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

Belgium was also interested in buying LEO-1 back and making it fit again for Ukraine, but the arms dealer's buy-back price is simply unacceptable !!! He (the dealer) bought between 10 and 15000 euros and now wants 500,000 euros per piece.!

I'm not sure on why anyone would expect an arms dealer to behave in any other way.

I also find it interesting that a private arms dealer would be able to buy that many tanks. Aren't most tank sales between governments?

Rheinmetall also owns a number of armoured vehicles and I am sure GDLS will have some in inventory.

Apparently the deal was he bought obsolete tanks at basically scrap metal prices hoping to resell them for parts at the various governments operating that tank model. They were not operational since the purchase and would cost something like 500K to be operational again.

Lucky bet, it seems.

Kris from Military Aviation History talks to a Ukrainian solider who operates kamikaze drones;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5lKupps8CM

At the other end of the Ukrainian drone scale;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EroJ1QiDsOw

Someones had their wings clipped;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -says-boss

Round up of the situation, went poorly for Russian Naval Infantry, supposedly a crack unit;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atlWhRVeHr4

GDB wrote:

Someones had their wings clipped;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -says-boss

Yep. It doesn't matter how good you do if you make the guy that signs the checks look bad.

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

Someones had their wings clipped;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -says-boss

Yep. It doesn't matter how good you do if you make the guy that signs the checks look bad.

Pretending that Wagner were doing all the fighting (though much of the dying was true enough), didn't go down well either.

Training done, on their way;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxHqJwJQ ... YJw3Dw1n_y

The text is a bit out of date, not the list though;
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/07/a ... eapon.html

Possible HIMARS strike on rail hub;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o682XFLYTFk

Speaking of trains, looks like Putin is cosplaying Hitler, Stalin and the DPRK dynasty;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBUKfVR3fgU

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

Someones had their wings clipped;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -says-boss

Yep. It doesn't matter how good you do if you make the guy that signs the checks look bad.

Bring on the civil war:

Since the start of the war, Prigozhin has repeatedly clashed with army leadership, including the chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, and the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu. His willingness to take on the defence establishment has catapulted him to become a leading figure among pro-war ultranationalists who have similarly criticised the army leadership.

However, there are growing signs the Kremlin has moved to curb what it considers the excessive political clout of the magnate. Last month, Russia appointed Gerasimov as its overall commander for the war in Ukraine, replacing Sergey Surovikin, who is believed to be a close ally of Prigozhin.
...
“Prigozhin has no shortage of enemies,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political analysis firm R.Politik. “The businessman’s attacks on officials, parliamentary deputies and political parties have not won him any favour within the elite, which considers Prigozhin’s autonomy, ambition and rhetoric nothing short of a threat to the state.”

With Ukrainian troops currently firing up to 6,000 artillery shells a day to fight Russia, the USA and allies are needing to vastly increase their ammunition production rate:

Running full-tilt, as it was on a recent January morning, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant churns out roughly 11,000 artillery shells a month. That may seem like a lot, but the Ukrainian military often fires that many shells over just a few days.

To meet that demand, the Scranton plant is undergoing a massive expansion, fueled by millions of dollars in new defense spending from the Pentagon. It’s investing in new high-tech machinery, hiring a few dozen additional workers and will eventually shift to a 24/7 schedule of constant production.
[...]
The Army is planning a 500% increase in artillery shell production, from 15,000 a month to 70,000, according to Army acquisition chief Doug Bush. Much of that increase will be fulfilled by the Scranton plant, which makes a large share of the country’s supply of artillery shells.
[...]
Bush told CNN the Army intends to double the production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, make roughly 33% more Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) surface-to-surface medium-range missiles a year, and produce each month a minimum of 60 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles – which were “almost not in production at all,” according to Bush.

Stinger and Javelin missiles are some of the most critical and relied-upon munitions by Ukraine to thwart Russian ground advances and aerial assaults, who previously told the US that it needs 500 of each every day.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/politics ... index.html

And another interesting take on the situation from a British pundit (who thinks the UK is woefully behind the curve): https://news.yahoo.com/vladimir-putin-f ... 00584.html

Tugg

I think it's a bit of both. Yes, the West needs to increase their production and stockpiles. On the other hand, I think the Ukrainians might sometimes forget that with the more accurate Western artillery systems, they don't always have to use as much ammunition as they do. Old habits die hard.

johns624 wrote:

Western artillery systems, they don't always have to use as much ammunition as they do. Old habits die hard.

I've seen a few videos of Ukrainian artilery at work. With their computerized tasking app, it doesn't seem that they are wasting shells.

Sure with the old Soviet guns, they may have to shoot more to complete the task, but most of the time, they either accomplish their shoot and leave or have to leave quickly anyway because of counter battery fire.

bt

The Russian's are apparently lobbing some 11,000 shells a day... I'll have to go and refind the source but needless to say the Russian are in full production ramp-up mode to be able to increase their capability to dump metal rain onto Ukraine.

In war, attrition isn't just people, its capability.

Tugg

bikerthai wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Western artillery systems, they don't always have to use as much ammunition as they do. Old habits die hard.

I've seen a few videos of Ukrainian artilery at work. With their computerized tasking app, it doesn't seem that they are wasting shells.

Sure with the old Soviet guns, they may have to shoot more to complete the task, but most of the time, they either accomplish their shoot and leave or have to leave quickly anyway because of counter battery fire.

bt

Yes, they are deft at using drones, in particular commercial or locally built ones to direct artillery, more so than the rigid Russian army.
Or more directly like this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f4w_WpvbKs

Still, though many have been supplied, not every 155mm battery will have Excalibur or similar systems.
More encouraging is the steady influx of these more accurate systems, like CAESAR, Archer, plus a mobile 155mm one from the Czechs, Polish Krabs, Later model M109's, now AS-90's and of course, Pzh2000.
As well as the towed systems.
This will not only give a range advantage but also accuracy, smart munitions.

Though doubtless there has been plenty of occasions where outnumbered Ukrainian gunners have had to let rip, we know for instance that the famous long traffic jam early on was one example of extensive artillery use.
Worth remembering that they still use a lot of 122mm and 152mm Soviet era artillery, sourcing ammo for that will be more difficult though there has been a lot of international sourcing as well as from former Warsaw Pact nations.

I saw a video of that CNN report from the Scranton plant.
Perun in his ammo supply video mentioned the potential of this facility coming on line;
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/specia ... 960af76af2

On a more sombre note, today I went to the Imperial War Museum in London to see this;
https://www.iwm.org.uk/events/iwm-londo ... exhibition

It's a small collection in a display room, not of weapons, save for AK-74's in some, including some TDF saluting a murdered farmer by toasting his grave and firing a salute.
The lower one in the link, a version of that, enlarged greatly, has punch, after seeing having a quick look around the rest on the IWM to see if anything else was new was not really happening, when you are quivering with anger.

GDB wrote:

[

I saw a video of that CNN report from the Scranton plant.
Perun in his ammo supply video mentioned the potential of this facility coming on line;
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/specia ... 960af76af2

Just a couple of FYIs...The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is housed in the old steam locomotive repair shops of the Delaware, Lackawanna and Western (the Lackawanna) Railroad.
Australia is a major producer of powder for the US commercial/civilian ammunition market.

johns624 wrote:

GDB wrote:

[

I saw a video of that CNN report from the Scranton plant.
Perun in his ammo supply video mentioned the potential of this facility coming on line;
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/specia ... 960af76af2

Just a couple of FYIs...The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant is housed in the old steam locomotive repair shops of the Delaware, Lackawanna and Western (the Lackawanna) Railroad.
Australia is a major producer of powder for the US commercial/civilian ammunition market.

I understand a certain Mr Biden comes from Scranton.
Small arms ammo too, though 5.56 and 7.62mm infantry weapons are still not that common in Ukraine, this will increase most likely plus all the vehicle mounted ones already in service, from Ma Duce to Mimini.
There's a lot of .50 cal around the world and no doubt huge stocks within NATO.
Perhaps those Aussie small arms ammo makers can get some contracts for the purpose of, from a line from a Manic Street Preachers song, if I can shoot rabbits, then I can shoot fascists.

This is going to increase with the new wave of Western armour, the IFV's, MBT's, APC's, engineering vehicles etc.
Those MG.3's on Marders and Leopard 2's are going to be busy, to use current British Army parlance, 'brassing the Russians up'.
Here's the main UK facility;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beMXYDQDW1M

They don't want the war to end...??

'Not the time for dialogue' with Russia's Putin, Macron says at Munich summit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... es-to-kyiv

DIRECTFLT wrote:

They don't want the war to end...??

'Not the time for dialogue' with Russia's Putin, Macron says at Munich summit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... es-to-kyiv

Maybe because he’s tried on so many occasions and Putin ignored and played him?

Do you honestly believe that Putin is a man of his word? I mean, come on, you can’t be that naive.

DIRECTFLT wrote:

They don't want the war to end...??

'Not the time for dialogue' with Russia's Putin, Macron says at Munich summit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... es-to-kyiv

Didn't Macron spent like million hours on the phone with Putin, achieving absolutely nothing?

This is also a pure gem. Is this guy suffering from amnesia so he doesn't remember all the drama he made because of 14 Leopards or does he not care what image he projects?

Countries able to send battle tanks to Ukraine should “actually do so now,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday, trying to rally support for a Europe-wide fleet of tank donations.

Speaking at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, a gathering of global political and security leaders, Scholz said “Germany acknowledges its responsibility for the security of Europe and the NATO alliance area, without ifs and buts.”

This is, he added, “a responsibility that a country of Germany’s size, location and economic strength has to shoulder in times like these.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-sc ... e=Facebook

L410Turbolet wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

They don't want the war to end...??

'Not the time for dialogue' with Russia's Putin, Macron says at Munich summit

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... es-to-kyiv

Didn't Macron spent like million hours on the phone with Putin, achieving absolutely nothing?

This is also a pure gem. Is this guy suffering from amnesia so he doesn't remember all the drama he made because of 14 Leopards or does he not care what image he projects?

Countries able to send battle tanks to Ukraine should “actually do so now,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday, trying to rally support for a Europe-wide fleet of tank donations.

Speaking at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, a gathering of global political and security leaders, Scholz said “Germany acknowledges its responsibility for the security of Europe and the NATO alliance area, without ifs and buts.”

This is, he added, “a responsibility that a country of Germany’s size, location and economic strength has to shoulder in times like these.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-sc ... e=Facebook

Better to learn from your mistakes rather than stick to dogmatic course, if they can do it then logically others should.

Training, the 10,000th Ukrainian to receive basic infantry training in the UK, they have blank firing adapters now for the AK series they are training with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCrSauOnBGs

Speaking of Germany;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... YfQiBY39uN

An asset in better targeting for artillery;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KRLsO4FN0c

Tugger wrote:

With Ukrainian troops currently firing up to 6,000 artillery shells a day to fight Russia, the USA and allies are needing to vastly increase their ammunition production rate:

On the topic of artillery, I took a relatively detailed look at the supply situation last month, which I shared elsewhere, and am now adding here. I had a couple sources including some old government documents, production rates, shelf lives, etc. Estimates of shells fired per day in this conflict vary widely, so I used my judgement to try to select likely ranges. The totals are slightly out of date, since nearly another month has passed since my estimates.

Ukraine artillery shells fired:

• 3,000 - 6,000 per day / 90,000 - 180,000 per month
  
• Total fired in 11 months: 990,000 - 1.98 million
  
• Assume this is all calibers: 105mm, 122mm, 152mm, 155mm, 203mm. I assume it does not include mortar rounds (shorter range, lower weight, so lower overall significance).

US 155mm production capacity and inventory:

• 480 per day (current), 3,000 per day (future)
  
• 14,400 per month (current), 90,000 per month (future)
  
• 3.5 million rounds pre-war inventory (estimated based on 20 year shelf life x 14,400 rounds per month sustainment production)
  
• 1.1 million rounds committed to Ukraine so far (source)

US 105mm production capacity and inventory

• Unclear (was 8.9 million rounds in 1995 - (source)
  
• 370,000 rounds committed to Ukraine

Russia artillery shells fired:

• 20,000-60,000 per day (believed to be near the lower end most of the time, but peaking over the summer)
  
• Total fired in 11 months: over 6.6 million rounds

I don't have figures for what other nations have provided to Ukraine. Nor how large their own stockpile was before the war. There also is the question of how much Russia can produce to keep supplying their own troops.

But it is a little startling to learn that the US has given Ukraine nearly 1/3 of the ammunition for our primary artillery systems, and that Ukraine likely have consumed more than that amount total. This exercise helped better understand the concerns about depleting US inventories and being unable to adequately support a conflict elsewhere, in the hopefully unlikely event one breaks out.

The use of artillery in this war is very different from Operation Desert Storm, when the US Army fired a total of roughly 43,500 rounds (source) from the M109's that were the primary system for the Army. Unofficial reports that don't cite sources like news articles suggest the total including MLRS, US Marines howitzers, and both the 16" and 5" guns on USS Missouri and USS Wisconsin may have been closer to 60,000 rounds.

iamlucky13 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

With Ukrainian troops currently firing up to 6,000 artillery shells a day to fight Russia, the USA and allies are needing to vastly increase their ammunition production rate:

On the topic of artillery, I took a relatively detailed look at the supply situation last month, which I shared elsewhere, and am now adding here. I had a couple sources including some old government documents, production rates, shelf lives, etc. Estimates of shells fired per day in this conflict vary widely, so I used my judgement to try to select likely ranges. The totals are slightly out of date, since nearly another month has passed since my estimates.

Ukraine artillery shells fired:

• 3,000 - 6,000 per day / 90,000 - 180,000 per month
  
• Total fired in 11 months: 990,000 - 1.98 million
  
• Assume this is all calibers: 105mm, 122mm, 152mm, 155mm, 203mm. I assume it does not include mortar rounds (shorter range, lower weight, so lower overall significance).

US 155mm production capacity and inventory:

• 480 per day (current), 3,000 per day (future)
  
• 14,400 per month (current), 90,000 per month (future)
  
• 3.5 million rounds pre-war inventory (estimated based on 20 year shelf life x 14,400 rounds per month sustainment production)
  
• 1.1 million rounds committed to Ukraine so far (source)

US 105mm production capacity and inventory

• Unclear (was 8.9 million rounds in 1995 - (source)
  
• 370,000 rounds committed to Ukraine

Russia artillery shells fired:

• 20,000-60,000 per day (believed to be near the lower end most of the time, but peaking over the summer)
  
• Total fired in 11 months: over 6.6 million rounds

I don't have figures for what other nations have provided to Ukraine. Nor how large their own stockpile was before the war. There also is the question of how much Russia can produce to keep supplying their own troops.

But it is a little startling to learn that the US has given Ukraine nearly 1/3 of the ammunition for our primary artillery systems, and that Ukraine likely have consumed more than that amount total. This exercise helped better understand the concerns about depleting US inventories and being unable to adequately support a conflict elsewhere, in the hopefully unlikely event one breaks out.

The use of artillery in this war is very different from Operation Desert Storm, when the US Army fired a total of roughly 43,500 rounds (source) from the M109's that were the primary system for the Army. Unofficial reports that don't cite sources like news articles suggest the total including MLRS, US Marines howitzers, and both the 16" and 5" guns on USS Missouri and USS Wisconsin may have been closer to 60,000 rounds.

Don't forget during Desert Storm there were also things like gunship helicopters, A-10s etc. So these came into the equation reducing the overall need for the Army to use as many munitions.

But a good comparison/insight by you, thanks!

France initially sent older MILAN ATGW systems to Ukraine, which will also likely be on the Marders too, as well as some of the interim Javelins procured before getting these into service in numbers;

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... g9QbPL5odQ

UK PM speaking today:

"...UK will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer range weapons..."

"...we are working with our allies to give Ukraine the most advanced air defence systems and build the air force they need to defend their nation."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-64677935

I wonder what he means by "longer range weapons".

The UK PM mentions helping build the air force Ukraine needs to defend itself. Just rhetoric or does he mean supplying fighters?