In a significant development on an expected donation, those JDAMs;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ian-lines/

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-usa-hande ... bloomberg/

And a possible 'that went poorly' moment;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL9KnhEC3e0

I follow the 'Darth Putin' handle on Twitter, which did a great job of summarizing Putin's speech:

Ukraine invaded itself cos the Anglican church decided God is genderless so we had to help demilitarize Kiev from the gay Nazi weaponized bats that exist cos lots of countries host US bases where they force everyone to be transsexual and it's all going to plan.

Clear?

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 8066426880

Another good one:

Day 364 of my 3 day war. My plan to win relies on having more bodies than Ukraine has bullets.

I remain a master strategist.

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 9231285248

And Prigozhin is having fun messing with the Kremlin and military leaders by posting pictures of fighters killed in Ukraine.

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has gone from accusing the Russian military of treason to flooding the internet with gruesome photos of the country’s war dead.

“Who is to blame for them dying? Those who should have resolved the issue of supplying us with sufficient quantities of ammunition are to blame,” Prigozhin said Wednesday [...]

To drive his point home on Wednesday, he released a photo showing rows upon rows of bloodied and maimed corpses that he said were Wagner fighters killed trying to keep the Kremlin’s grip on Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-chef-leaks ... 17652.html

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

And Prigozhin is having fun messing with the Kremlin and military leaders by posting pictures of fighters killed in Ukraine.

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has gone from accusing the Russian military of treason to flooding the internet with gruesome photos of the country’s war dead.

“Who is to blame for them dying? Those who should have resolved the issue of supplying us with sufficient quantities of ammunition are to blame,” Prigozhin said Wednesday [...]

To drive his point home on Wednesday, he released a photo showing rows upon rows of bloodied and maimed corpses that he said were Wagner fighters killed trying to keep the Kremlin’s grip on Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-chef-leaks ... 17652.html

Tugg

Who will the average pro-war Russian 'man in the street' support on this issue of ammunition shortage - Putin or Prigozhin, I wonder?

art wrote:

Who will the average pro-war Russian 'man in the street' support on this issue of ammunition shortage - Putin or Prigozhin, I wonder?

Putin controls the media .........

tomcat wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

I'm not sure how Ukraine will best utilize JDAM's, but getting maximum range out of them means release at high altitudes,

I'm curious about that also. The technique I envision was a Mig can launch the JDAM in a ballistic trajectory. But 70+ km seems quite long for a winged bomb.

Rail tracks or bridges located close to the front line could be potential targets although one would think this is the domain of the HIMARs.

Your question helps remind me what I was overlooking above - what distinguishes JDAM from GMLRS.

First of all, cost: the M31 GMLRS rockets launched by HIMARS and MLRS cost around $100,000 per round. A JDAM kit costs about $25,000 and the bombs they attach start around $2,000. I see $10,000 reported for the wing kit used on JDAM-ER. The US will be able to supply more of these for a given cost, and therefore Ukraine will be able to use them more liberally.

Secondly, explosive effect - JDAM will be more effective against certain targets. The M31 warhead weighs 195 lbs and has 51 lbs of explosives in it (source). This ratio is similar to an artillery round, which is intended to be penetrate basic earthworks or vehicle top armor, as well as generate a large number of fragments. They have fairly limited effectiveness against large or hardened targets. In preparation for the Kherson counteroffensive, it took weeks of regular strikes to make the Antonivskiy Bridge in Kherson impassable.

The JDAM kits attach to larger munitions. The smallest, the Mk 82, weighs 500 pounds and has 192 lbs of explosive - 4 times the power of a GMLRS round. The 1,000 pound and 2,000 pound versions have similar ratio of explosive fill to total weight. They're designed more for their explosive yield than fragmentation, which is why the ratio of explosive weight to case weight is different. There is additionally a second 2,000 pound version using the BLU-109. While this this bomb "only" has 530 pounds of explosive - a similar ratio to weight as the GMLRS - it is a "bunker buster" optimized for penetrating hardened targets.

Third, responsiveness and utilization. If intel identifies a target of opportunity, an aircraft can potentially strike the target more quickly than a HIMARS or MLRS launcher can reach a launch location. And in general, it allows the air force to get more involved in the fight, and presents Russia more threats to guard against. A bunker that is safe against artillery or GMLRS might be easily destroyed by a JDAM, so the threat for their command staff increases. Air defenses that are not effective against GMLRS anyways might need to be redistributed to protect against aircraft carrying JDAM's, potentially opening new holes in Russia's air defenses elsewhere.

Tugger wrote:

And Prigozhin is having fun messing with the Kremlin and military leaders by posting pictures of fighters killed in Ukraine.

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has gone from accusing the Russian military of treason to flooding the internet with gruesome photos of the country’s war dead.

“Who is to blame for them dying? Those who should have resolved the issue of supplying us with sufficient quantities of ammunition are to blame,” Prigozhin said Wednesday [...]

To drive his point home on Wednesday, he released a photo showing rows upon rows of bloodied and maimed corpses that he said were Wagner fighters killed trying to keep the Kremlin’s grip on Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-chef-leaks ... 17652.html

Tugg

Will Proghozin end up falling out of a window or having an unfortunate car accident? Or a sudden mystery illness.

I like the idea of JDAM munitions from modified Ukrainian jets.

iamlucky13 wrote:

Third, responsiveness and utilization. If intel identifies a target of opportunity, an aircraft can potentially strike the target more quickly than a HIMARS or MLRS launcher can reach a launch location

For target of opportunities, there are more MLRS/HIMARS near the front line than loitering aircrafts.

But now with the JDAMs, once Ukraine reaches the sea of Azov. they won't need ATACMs to target the bridge. They can lob 2000 lbs JDAMs, hopefully from a safe distance.

bt

Russia has reportedly destroyed 2 more HIMARS this week, bringing to the total to 260% of the total delivered to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1628097360621453312

If the numbers seem "inflated," perhaps this is why:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 8576843777

To be fair, I'm not certain the twitter analyst crowd is very rigorous in their tracking. For example, if the Western Military District claims to have destroyed one, and the Ministry of Defense repeats the claim, it's not clear to me if the twitter analysts are noting that as one claim or two.

Either way, I have yet to see any photos of an actual destroyed M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS launcher. It's possible Ukraine has lost some but keeps it quiet, but it's clear Russia's claims about destroying them are wildly exaggerated.

It's glsdb o'clock in Mariupol

No picture, just a report:

Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Mariupol. It is reported by the Mariupol City Council.

Report two explosions at 22:51 and 22:53 in the area of ​​the plant.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1628508284855496706

iamlucky13 wrote:

To be fair, I'm not certain the twitter analyst crowd is very rigorous in their tracking. For example, if the Western Military District claims to have destroyed one, and the Ministry of Defense repeats the claim, it's not clear to me if the twitter analysts are noting that as one claim or two.

Either way, I have yet to see any photos of an actual destroyed M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS launcher. It's possible Ukraine has lost some but keeps it quiet, but it's clear Russia's claims about destroying them are wildly exaggerated.

I follow a few sources compiling losses on blogs / Twitter. I find the most accurate of them is Oryx - who counts only visual losses with some impressive efforts to de-duplicate claims on both sides. I seem to recall there have been some HIMARS losses verified, but we're not talking 260%! Oryx suggests their numbers are 10-20% short of the actual losses.

PlymSpotter wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

To be fair, I'm not certain the twitter analyst crowd is very rigorous in their tracking. For example, if the Western Military District claims to have destroyed one, and the Ministry of Defense repeats the claim, it's not clear to me if the twitter analysts are noting that as one claim or two.

Either way, I have yet to see any photos of an actual destroyed M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS launcher. It's possible Ukraine has lost some but keeps it quiet, but it's clear Russia's claims about destroying them are wildly exaggerated.

I follow a few sources compiling losses on blogs / Twitter. I find the most accurate of them is Oryx - who counts only visual losses with some impressive efforts to de-duplicate claims on both sides. I seem to recall there have been some HIMARS losses verified, but we're not talking 260%! Oryx suggests their numbers are 10-20% short of the actual losses.

I don't follow Oryx, but I do occasionally take a peak at their lists. I should have checked again before posting, but doing so now, it see no M142 or M270 on there:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... inian.html

I could only speculate on the completeness of their numbers, but it's a very impressive effort regardless. I also assume the numbers published by the Ukraine Ministry of Defence are significant over-statements, as is common during wars. Here's a quick comparison:

Oryx List of Russian Losses: 1769 tanks

Ukraine Ministry of Defense List of Russian Losses: 3326 tanks

To be honest, I would have guessed their numbers would be further apart, so Oryx is extremely thorough for working with open sources, and Ukraine appears to be applying some diligence to prevent their own numbers from being significantly inflated.

johns624 wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Any plane the president is on is AF1.

Not always. Sometimes it is SAM or RCH if they don't want the profile of flying as AF1. It's unusual, but just because the president is on board does not always mean it's AF1.

Thank you for the correction. I was wrong (hint, hint).

Most people don't actually know because it happens so infrequently. I can only recall two occasions in the last five years. It's a way to keep a low profile for a reason!

tomcat wrote:

It's glsdb o'clock in Mariupol

Two nights in a row now. With so many explosion reported, I'm begining to think it has to be GLSBD as well. There can't be enough Migs to lob that many JDAMs.

Recall the lend lease act was approved last May. If the 9 month lead time as quoted by the press is accurate, and the contract was signed as soon as the legislation was approved, then the first batch of GLSBD would arrive right about . . . now.

bt

The mystery of the 100,500 HIMARS destroyed by Russians has been solved.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 15492?s=20

Looks like Putin got an anniversary present from the Ukrainians :
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/02/23/ ... -missiles/

Braybuddy wrote:

Looks like Putin got an anniversary present from the Ukrainians :
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/02/23/ ... -missiles/

The interesting tidbit about that article was the reported time of strike was 9:48 in the morning.

If they are using the same weapons as the night(s) before, then one conclusion would be that the Ukrainian are confident that the Rusian can not shoot down these new weapons in sufficient quantity to make a difference.



bt

Tugger wrote:

And Prigozhin is having fun messing with the Kremlin and military leaders by posting pictures of fighters killed in Ukraine.

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has gone from accusing the Russian military of treason to flooding the internet with gruesome photos of the country’s war dead.

“Who is to blame for them dying? Those who should have resolved the issue of supplying us with sufficient quantities of ammunition are to blame,” Prigozhin said Wednesday [...]

To drive his point home on Wednesday, he released a photo showing rows upon rows of bloodied and maimed corpses that he said were Wagner fighters killed trying to keep the Kremlin’s grip on Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-chef-leaks ... 17652.html

This just shows how cheap human life is to those in power in Russia. There wouldn't be so many dead if Prighzhin actually spent the money to develop his "military" with good training and leadership, and didn't feed them into the meat grinder as if this were WW1. There wouldn't be so many dead if Putin didn't act on his feeble minded, paranoid, apocalyptic view of the world.

I don't know how many of you are old enough to remember the loss of one F-117 over the former Yugoslavia in the Clinton era. There was so much furor over the loss of that one plane and that one pilot, yet that pilot escaped capture and returned to his side! The guy was career military, sworn to follow orders, knew that could mean he'd die doing so, yet the public found his loss unacceptable. One pilot! Meanwhile, in Russia, they treat their soldiers like flocks of lambs raised to be slaughtered, move on, nothing to see here. Like spring moths their lives are insignificant, they'll be another batch of them next spring.

Excellent comments from Garry Kasparov, World Chess Champion, on Putin's recent speech. He's a guy who really knows a lot about how mind games are played:

Putin's whining, mendacious lecture today sounded even more pathetic contrasted with EU leaders in Munich, Biden and Zelensky in Ukraine, and Biden and Duda in Warsaw. A dictator's fear and hatred versus the democratic world's optimism and unity.

Putin's feeble lies & ranting expose how little the world needs or need fear Russia. Leaving treaties he already ignores, the tired nuke threats that would end his comfortable life, moaning about a war he alone started and could end in a second.

I'm no mind-reader, but I've been right about Putin for a long time and have read the eyes of many an opponent. He looked and sounded like a man who knows he's lost, who knows he's lying even to himself, but is hoping his enemies don't realize it yet.

In a losing position, there is a tendency to push harder, to move hastily and act overconfident. The desperate bravado of the doomed. As long as Ukraine and its allies do not blink and continue to increase the pressure, victory is assured.

As I've said many times, Putin isn't a chessplayer. He's a poker player, a bluffer good at exploiting his opponents' weak resolve. The answer has always been not to play his game. Plan, set clear strategic goals, don't fall for bluffs or off the board distractions.

Source: https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1 ... 5902637056

A Reddit post points out a basic flaw in Putin's ideology.

02/23/2022: I have decided to start a special military operation in Ukraine.
02/21/2021: The West started the war in Ukraine!

As Kasparov points out he moans on and on about the war from his Kremlin bunker, but he's the one who started it, and he could end it in a second.

Another primary flaw in his ideology: he says the war in Ukraine is a war for the survival of Russia, but his current strategy avoids involving the average middle class Russian in favor of using prisoners and ethnic minorities.

Russian right-wingers (the only ones allowed a voice in their media) call him out on this, daring him to do a general mobilization, but he just doesn't.

Clearly he knows Russia's military struggles to train, feed and equip the current waves of conscripts, so adding more won't help.

Also he knows he can only retain power by not forcing the average Russian to make sacrifices, his current conscription level just nibbles away at the edges a bit.

He counts on the stoic fatalism the average Russian has that makes them suffer in silence, always reluctant to give any opinion on their situation lest it be held against them in the next wave of purges they are all programmed to expect.

Interesting BBC Russian blog on the attitudes of Russians:

Many Russians chose to stay away from politics and let the Kremlin decide for them, but keeping your head down means making very troubling moral compromises.

To keep the war from their door, Russians have to pretend this isn't an expansionist invasion, and must close their eyes to the Ukrainians who are killed and wounded in their tens of thousands and driven from their homes in their millions by what the Kremlin calls its "special military operation".

Russians must accept it's normal for soldiers to go into schools and tell their children war is a good thing.
That it's normal for priests to support the war and stop praying for peace.
That it doesn't matter they can no longer travel or be part of a broader world.
That the Kremlin was right to block the majority of independent media sites they used to read.
That a sledgehammer is now a positive symbol of Russian power in executions captured on camera and posted by MPs on Twitter.

And that it's normal to go to jail for years for saying what you think about the war, whether you're a councillor or a journalist.

My thought is: one way to avoid making moral compromises is to have no morals at all.

Why Russians do not protest is perhaps better explained by Russian history and not opinion polls.

Ever since he came to power, President Vladimir Putin has made it no secret that he wants to rebuild Russia and restore its position for the world to respect and reckon with.

In speeches and essays he has made clear his belief Russia occupies a unique place in the world as part of both the East and West. Russia has its own traditions, religion, and its own ways of doing things. Russians need order and control, and demand respect.

This message has echoed down the centuries and brooks no dissent or prospect for change. It's a chokehold - to use a judo term from his favourite sport.

This Putin vision comes with a price: Russians have paid with their freedom; Ukrainians are paying with their lives.

These days more and more Russians are paying with their lives as well as their freedom to try to enforce Putin's world view.

It might be easier to just accept you are one nation among many, instead of one that must be respected in a way you find acceptable.

Source: https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/why-m ... kraine-war

Revelation wrote:

I don't know how many of you are old enough to remember the loss of one F-117 over the former Yugoslavia in the Clinton era. There was so much furor over the loss of that one plane and that one pilot, yet that pilot escaped capture and returned to his side!

And then there was that incident during the Gulf War 2 when a group of soldiers got lost/ambushed as they pushed toward Bagdad. Heaven and Earth was turned over to find the missing soldier who was eventually found at a nearby Iraqi hospital.

Didn't they send in Spec Ops to retrieve her?

bt

Good read on how the smaller weapons systems being provided are equally important to the performance and success of Ukraine fighters. And the article also helps put to rest the idiot and asinine claims some in the US make about integrating females into combat units.

But military aid need not always be exotic to have an impact. Starting before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine one year ago and continued since, the U.S. also provided modest quantities of low-tech infantry support weapons—M240 and M2 machine guns, 60-millimeter mortars, Mark 19 automatic grenade launchers, and M82 Barret sniper rifles.

These small arms have made their way both to elite commando units, but also to some of Ukraine’s most under-equipped troops, where they are making a difference as testified by Olha Bihar, known by her callsign “Witch” (Vyzdma).

Formerly a lawyer working on her Ph.D., Witch now commands a mortar platoon in the 204th battalion of the 241st Separate Territorial Defense Force (TDF) Brigade. At least 57,000 women serve in Ukraine’s armed forces, including at least 13,000 in roles near frontline combat.

https://news.yahoo.com/witch-ukraine-re ... 00039.html

Tugg

bikerthai wrote:

And then there was that incident during the Gulf War 2 when a group of soldiers got lost/ambushed as they pushed toward Bagdad. Heaven and Earth was turned over to find the missing soldier who was eventually found at a nearby Iraqi hospital.

Indeed, there's a huge difference in how Russia and the rest of the world view human life.

Given Putin's recent speech and the upcoming one year anniversary, there seems to be a lot of pieces out there on why the bleep this war was started and why it keeps going.

The Guardian has a report from a reporter inside Russia so much more reflecting the attitudes of their citizens. It focuses on the soldiers killed in the HIMARS attack on Makiivka on New Years Eve.

A friend of one victim said:

As a self-professed patriot who said he would “never let Russia be occupied”, he did not try to dodge the draft. “When he got his call-up papers, he immediately said that he was going,” said the friend. “He said, ‘What am I, some bum or loser to run away from this? That means my fate is to be a soldier.’”

So, somehow these guys think that Ukraine and/or NATO were going to occupy Russia?

Actually their propaganda says Ukraine is Russia, so moves by Ukraine to join NATO are the same thing as Russia being occupied.

And, it's just his fate to be a soldier, as if he has no control over what happens with his life?

Guess not, at least not in Russia.

To us, this is an amazing amount of brain-washing.

To them they're like fish in water, they don't they're in water till you take them out of it.

This guy's remains were just now identified via DNA, 50+ days after the HIMARS strike.

On how other victims families portray the situation:

In online public chats for mobilised soldiers and their family members, there is a clear tug-of-war over messaging: while criticism of the military is rife, there is less open opposition to the war and almost no sympathy for Ukrainian suffering.

“People are suffering,” said Irina, the wife of a soldier and one of the group’s most active critics of the Russian military. “Society is shocked by the support of the European Union and the United States of an openly Nazi regime,” a trope used by Putin and on Russian state media to describe Ukraine.

Openly Nazi regime?

When I hear this it suggests Russians think there are concentration camps in Ukraine gassing Jews, but the right way to interpret this is that propaganda machine says anyone/anything that goes against Russia's aims is "Nazi".

For instance, partisan "freedom fighters" in WW2 and after who were against Russian occupation of Eastern Europe were labeled "Nazis" although they were not following Nazi ideology, but they were against Russia so they were labeled "Nazis"

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-conflict

Revelation wrote:

The Guardian has a report from a reporter inside Russia so much more reflecting the attitudes of their citizens.

Maybe they should dig up some news article some 250 years ago and compare notes.

“It is very melancholy to think,” Brudenell wrote, “that we must sacrifice so many brave lives, in order to put an end, to such an unnatural Rebellion.”

https://time.com/5326345/british-americ ... tion-1776/

bt

This jet will definitely not cause any more harm in Ukraine. However, it would be desirable before he flew into Ukraine
https://tass.com/defense/1580787

Boris Johnson calls on UK to 'break the ice' by sending Ukraine fighter jets

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnso ... e-12818031

Would be good to send a few token Typhoons. The tranche 1 aircraft in storage (I gather there are some in storage) would be just fine. It doesn't matter if they are not in a flyable state because there are no Ukrainian pilots in a state to fly them!

Kris from Military Aviation History looks back at the first year of the air war;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=carENYJE7bg

This could be the SU-25 oldJoe referred to;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8_EWP8j7DA

Meanwhile, on the ground;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSDv8wNU4_A

(Those Oskosh trucks supplied by the US and Germany have a use before the introduction of Western MBTs)

A powerful photo and written piece about what happened last year in Mariupol;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... -of-a-city

oldJoe wrote:

This jet will definitely not cause any more harm in Ukraine. However, it would be desirable before he flew into Ukraine
https://tass.com/defense/1580787

Article says:

"According to preliminary data, a technical fault is a likely cause of the crash," the Defense Ministry said.

Oh well, at least he didn't fall out of a window.

art wrote:

Boris Johnson calls on UK to 'break the ice' by sending Ukraine fighter jets

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnso ... e-12818031

Would be good to send a few token Typhoons. The tranche 1 aircraft in storage (I gather there are some in storage) would be just fine. It doesn't matter if they are not in a flyable state because there are no Ukrainian pilots in a state to fly them!

Have people learned nothing about this man? He does not know what he is talking about, I suggest you revisit the link I posted not long ago, or find it on You Tube, where a former USN F-14 RIO Ward Carroll, has an interview with someone who certainly does.

We don't have the aircraft to spare, some are always in store pending upgrades, planned maintenance or to preserve airframe hours.
Air forces who do almost constant sophisticated exercises and deployments, including constant operational ones since 1990, do this.
While also having the means to deploy at very short notice, all of this has been made harder by the last dozen years of cuts.
Unlike the Russian VKS.

As Spain is showing, it's a political/financial consideration, not a technical one, not to give Tranche 1's an upgrade to maintain the AD role (thus helping to free up the rest for deployments/swing role), here we will have to see if this is one the the previous decisions that will be reversed in the light of Ukraine.

To get it past the Treasury as 'preparing them, perhaps, if we need to donate them to Ukraine' (while more suitable Western types, I agree with Justin Bronk on that Ward Carroll upload which one is, andor more Russian origin types with more Western weapons like JDAM), that I would not object to.

Been done before, the Treasury after the mid 1960's would not fund new aircraft carriers, so the Invincible Class were called 'Through Deck Cruisers' even after the Sea Harrier had been approved.

Speaking of drawing stuff out of stores;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxGR0U7y ... 7g3Sf4-4mf

Meanwhile, at the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) meeting in Vienna:

“It’s a disgrace that this delegation is here” Latvian parliamentarian Richard Kols stated at an OSCE meeting in Vienna. He called the Russians war criminals and ordered them to go to the exact location where the famous warship went. Then during the Russian speech, most deputies left the hall

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... n_is_here/

Video is provided with Kols speaking in English, then he switches to Russian to tell their delegation to go to the exact location where the famous warship went. Then the video shows a large number of members leaving the hall.

When speaking in English he says how members of the Russian delegation in the hall voted in favor of the annexation of the four oblasts, and that it was a disgrace that those war criminals were allowed to be in the hall.

Those great people at Led By Donkeys mark one year of this war by visiting the Russian Embassy in London, in their own particular fashion;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUpNm5_SnX8

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64743138

Anyone familiar with Oryx will enjoy this:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 5563207682

If the rumors are true, in a reversal of what usually happens, it appears that in fact the Treasury has allocated around £10 billion for defence.
But that Mr Bean twerp Sunak is blocking it.
(Richer than the King and his crook, tax dodging wife and her family business still doing business with Russia).
Leaks saying he has ‘no interest in defence and security’ he only knows finance it’s said, well how to further enrich the wealthy at least, with his green card he never mentioned when in the government until he was found out, the wannabe tech bro POS.

Not that I’m that surprised, he looked uncomfortable when the Ukrainian President visited, apparently he was most reluctant to do that.
Still, he’ll go through the motions today announce some new sanctions probably, just don’t mention how the UK gave a weeks grace to the Russian oligarchs when the initial ones were announced last year.
Bit embarrassing that political donations were even allowed to the Tories.

All this sounds like Sunak is a ‘citizen of nowhere’, ironic as he is a supporter of Brexit, they used that as a slur against those opposed to that folly.

Revelation wrote:

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-conflict

Like it or not, public support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine seems to be very strong. It sounds like Russian patriots are ready and willing to play their part in the war. Any reason to think that will change in the months or years to come?

Like it or not, Russia has not been ostracised by the countries of the world. Links with the largest and second largest countries by population are strengthening.

Like it or not, the Russian currency and the Russian economy have not collapsed as many predicted would happen.

Short of Ukraine's international backers massively raising their military support, this conflict looks set to drag on for years, doesn't it?

art wrote:

Like it or not, public support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine seems to be very strong. It sounds like Russian patriots are ready and willing to play their part in the war. Any reason to think that will change in the months or years to come?

Although you are on to something with this point, I believe that this support may be wide but I don't think it is deep. I'm reading a book I should have read decades ago: 'Russia at war 1941-1945' by Alexander Werth. He lived in Russia during those war years. Something I found striking was that he describes all the lies and propaganda that Stalin was pushing during the time of the Molotov - Ribbentrop agreement, and he notes that there was no opposition, but at the same time, Werth was of the opinion that the educated Russian knew it was all BS and that the true story wasn't being told. They just wouldn't discuss such things with anyone but close friends, if that. I am hopeful that the same dynamic is in play now.

art wrote:

Like it or not, Russia has not been ostracized by the countries of the world. Links with the largest and second largest countries by population are strengthening.

That is an incorrect analysis afik, Russia just was all but 'ostracized' at the UN yesterday.

World Takes On Russia At UN As War Completes One Year

The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution on Thursday demanding that Russia pull out.
There were 141 votes in favor and 32 abstentions, including China. Six countries joined Russia to vote 'no' - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-02-23/

art wrote:

Like it or not, the Russian currency and the Russian economy have not collapsed as many predicted would happen.

Maybe the Ruble hasn't collapsed, but Russia is suffered a huge permanent financial loss that will take them a decade of hard times to recover from.

art wrote:

Short of Ukraine's international backers massively raising their military support, this conflict looks set to drag on for years, doesn't it?

Let's discuss this in about October. The picture may be much clearer then.

In fact, what happens in the next 12 or so hours may be telling. This evening marks the one year anniversary of the invasion and there may be big Russian activity today. Or not.

Vintage wrote:

art wrote:

Like it or not, Russia has not been ostracized by the countries of the world. Links with the largest and second largest countries by population are strengthening.

That is an incorrect analysis afik, Russia just was all but 'ostracized' at the UN yesterday.

World Takes On Russia At UN As War Completes One Year

The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution on Thursday demanding that Russia pull out.
There were 141 votes in favor and 32 abstentions, including China. Six countries joined Russia to vote 'no' - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-02-23/

I think that China, India and other countries see the drop in demand for Russian crude, allowing them to buy crude below market price, as a windfall. Nobody gets sanctioned for buying crude from Russia at a price below the imposed price cap.

I think that both China and India see opportunities to sell Russia more consumer goods, given the drop in supply from countries sanctioning Russia.

As far as I know Russia and India are working on setting up alternatives to using the established international finance system to enable trade contract settlements.

https://idrw.org/india-and-russia-poise ... l-novatek/

It's not just crude, there are a plethora of business transactions that are now out of bounds for Russia, and others have become more costly.

Russia and India starting their own financial system sounds about like me and the homeless guy down the street opening up a savings and loan in the mall.

Vintage wrote:

It's not just crude, there are a plethora of business transactions that are now out of bounds for Russia, and others have become more costly.

Russia and India starting their own financial system sounds about like me and the homeless guy down the street opening up a savings and loan in the mall.

Russia, India to create RuPay – Mir connectivity
Wednesday 24 August 2022 12:37 CET | News

The Russian and Indian Governments have gotten closer to an agreement to have cards based on Russia’s Mir payment system be accepted at ATMs and POS in India.

The negotiations between the two nations have developed with the purpose of building a financial system which would not be affected by Western sanctions on Russia.

Turkey has already begun accepting Russia's Mir cards. In August 2022, five Turkish banks have adopted Russia’s Mir payments system, according to Bloomberg. As Mastercard and Visa have halted operations in Russia, Mir card payments will allow Russian tourists to pay for their purchases in Turkey.

In China, Credit Bank of Moscow - MKB and Bank DOM.FR have announced that they are preparing to issue UnionPay cards starting with Q1 2023. DOM.RF plans to start issuing UnionPay cards that will be co-branded the existing Russian Mir card. Additionally, Russia’s Industrial & Commercial Bank (ICB) is considering the possibility of issuing cards through the China’s UnionPay system as well.

https://thepaypers.com/online-payments/ ... --1258090#[/quote]

My point is that Russia is setting up alternative arrangements after being excluded from the international financial system and that there are countries co-operating with Russia to achieve that aim.

I think that Russia and India are also working on a trade agreement.

The Russians are now seriously starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel equipment-wise. Trucks were spotted in the occupied territories carrying BTR-50s. These were built between 1954 (!) and 1970, and they've been out of service for decades.
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1628695296552144896

Sanctions always take time, they make a country bleed out economically but usually slowly.
Apartheid South Africa was never under sanctions as severe as Russia is, however over time and with some military defeats in Angola in the late 1980’s finally made them have to think their unthinkable.
Around the same time as the forever iron Grip the USSR had on its empire was disintegrating.

The story of the first Ukrainian to be killed in the current war;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-invasion

Grief and Defiance;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-ukraine

The one person in government who does know what he is talking about, rebuts someone just out to destabilize his successor but one, just as he did his predecessor;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

The vital link for Ukraine, recently dubbed 'Rail Force One'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nts-moving

Demand is soaring for oil storage tanks in Singapore, in a sign that a flood of Russian fuel is being blended and re-exported globally.

Tank space in the city state is being snapped up due to a rise in interest and profits from mixing cheap fuel supplies from Russia with shipments from other sources, according to an executive from a tank operator and a consultant who advises traders on the matter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

I don't think the traders concerned have any great interest in a European war thousands of miles away. Exploiting the situation to their advantage is of much greater interest.

They are being warned that there could be undesirable consequences, though...

SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Companies in Singapore will have to consider and manage any potential impact on their business activities, transactions, and customer relationships when dealing with Russian crude oil and refined products, a government official said on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-02-24/

art wrote:

Like it or not, public support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine seems to be very strong. It sounds like Russian patriots are ready and willing to play their part in the war. Any reason to think that will change in the months or years to come?

Nope, some folks still seem to think that because Russia is in Europe the norms and culture of the rest of Europe applies.

art wrote:

Like it or not, Russia has not been ostracised by the countries of the world. Links with the largest and second largest countries by population are strengthening.

Like it or not, the Russian currency and the Russian economy have not collapsed as many predicted would happen.

I guess you need to consider the many, are these the folks who said nothing would happen, that the USA was initiating a conflict to subdue Europe, those who said NATO was about to invade Russia so a pre-emptive strike was launched, how about those who supported going to Ukraine to clear out the Nazi's, or Trump was behind it all? Not all those on those sides of the fence are / were in Russia.
Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on the side of the fence one chooses, there are many who can be found to support one side or the other, issue is how one chooses to decide which side to support, using a logic that suits your narrative or actually doing some research.....at present in our world today, right and wrong are no longer black and white choices. Politics and the more active involvement of some populations have more profound effects, a large number a nations no longer have populations that are led around by the nose, they are still led but the method of leading is / has changed.

GDB wrote:

The one person in government who does know what he is talking about, rebuts someone just out to destabilize his successor but one, just as he did his predecessor;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

Interesting how some politicians and media type in our current "woke" society get away saying some things. The jets are too complex but Ukraine can somehow find the means and the way to handle and maintain an inventory of weaponry consolidated into one single military that boggles the mind. I am fine with saying the jet's, MBT's and everything other than rifles - I guess them too - are very complex and sophisticated, but to ignore the fact that folks fighting for their lives and their nation are not motivated to learn at an elevated pace....see I did the same thing...some things are just better left unsaid, it is not always necessary to have a hundred words to simple say we do not see jets as being feasible as of right now. One thing a lot of people overlook is how fragile military fast jets are, and by fragile I mean in normal operation with all the sophisticated sensors and avionics, they break down and are non-mission capable far often than most know. Prior to the conflict we had a few threads running around on combat equipment readiness, a re-read of those would help some to understand why some say the Grippen is preferred over the F-16 and the length of the runway is not really the big issue.

On the military level, the USA strategy is not necessarily what other nations like or can afford, combined arms, air superiority and massive communication links are understood by most but are not affordable by most. Yes Ukraine started some "western" military ideology after 2014, but the majority of their military are still rooted in Russian tactics and strategy, that they have been shifting at a remarkable pace is a wonder to watch, they deserve all the credit as they fight for their nations survival.

par13del wrote:

GDB wrote:

The one person in government who does know what he is talking about, rebuts someone just out to destabilize his successor but one, just as he did his predecessor;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

Interesting how some politicians and media type in our current "woke" society get away saying some things. The jets are too complex but Ukraine can somehow find the means and the way to handle and maintain an inventory of weaponry consolidated into one single military that boggles the mind. I am fine with saying the jet's, MBT's and everything other than rifles - I guess them too - are very complex and sophisticated, but to ignore the fact that folks fighting for their lives and their nation are not motivated to learn at an elevated pace....see I did the same thing...some things are just better left unsaid, it is not always necessary to have a hundred words to simple say we do not see jets as being feasible as of right now. One thing a lot of people overlook is how fragile military fast jets are, and by fragile I mean in normal operation with all the sophisticated sensors and avionics, they break down and are non-mission capable far often than most know. Prior to the conflict we had a few threads running around on combat equipment readiness, a re-read of those would help some to understand why some say the Grippen is preferred over the F-16 and the length of the runway is not really the big issue.

On the military level, the USA strategy is not necessarily what other nations like or can afford, combined arms, air superiority and massive communication links are understood by most but are not affordable by most. Yes Ukraine started some "western" military ideology after 2014, but the majority of their military are still rooted in Russian tactics and strategy, that they have been shifting at a remarkable pace is a wonder to watch, they deserve all the credit as they fight for their nations survival.

I don't get what 'woke' has to do with it, I find it hard to take seriously those who drop that deliberately misunderstood line, it is misunderstood not only deliberately but by sheer over use.It's also essentially what Putin accuses the West of. Besides, it's very popular too with right wing Putin apologists in the West.
If you mean ill informed than I agree totally, worse still when they take seriously a man like Johnson who has told so many lies, his government disintegrated. Not because they were ashamed, he was dragging them down.
I certainly agree with how Ukraine has done.

Not usually linking podcasts on here, where to start? However this one features Dr Clarke who has been on many broadcasts, often linked here, using his military experience and strategic understanding in a clear and illuminating way.
So as it's the one year anniversary, this is a 40 min one featuring him with some very interesting and for me, new things to say, not least just how why Ukraine got one set of intel from the US and UK, proved right but also directly conflicting data from two major European nations intel agencies, which seem to be a reverse of 20 years ago.
This time the political pressure to give the 'right' information did not destabilize MI6 and CIA and lead to disaster.

Putin's Invasion of Ukraine: 1 Year On;
https://podfollow.com/the-world-wars/view

GDB wrote:

The one person in government who does know what he is talking about, rebuts someone just out to destabilize his successor but one, just as he did his predecessor;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

Yes. To inform non-Brits, here in the UK quite a few consider our minister of defence to be the only 'grown up' in the government, the only minister worthy of their respect.

Britain will not send Typhoon jets to Ukraine in the short term, the defence secretary has said, despite a campaign by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the former prime minister Boris Johnson.

Speaking on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion on Friday, Ben Wallace said the Typhoons would be too complex for Ukrainian pilots to fly and would involve putting hundreds of British troops on the ground to support them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

No need for any more discussion about sending Typhoons in the near future, is there?

However, is it not time for 'the West' to start getting serious about supplying fighters? The UkAF is still active, still flying, so I presume that the Russians have not been able to put the bases from which the UkAF operates out of commission. What fighter could 'the West' supply? The only candidate available in large numbers is F-16.

The way things have been going, the war could last for years, so how about getting started on an emergency programme to train pilots and support personnel on F-16? Won't get done in a day. Or a week. Or a month. But it might get done in a year.

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

The one person in government who does know what he is talking about, rebuts someone just out to destabilize his successor but one, just as he did his predecessor;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

Yes. To inform non-Brits, here in the UK quite a few consider our minister of defence to be the only 'grown up' in the government, the only minister worthy of their respect.

Britain will not send Typhoon jets to Ukraine in the short term, the defence secretary has said, despite a campaign by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the former prime minister Boris Johnson.

Speaking on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion on Friday, Ben Wallace said the Typhoons would be too complex for Ukrainian pilots to fly and would involve putting hundreds of British troops on the ground to support them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... en-wallace

No need for any more discussion about sending Typhoons in the near future, is there?

However, is it not time for 'the West' to start getting serious about supplying fighters? The UkAF is still active, still flying, so I presume that the Russians have not been able to put the bases from which the UkAF operates out of commission. What fighter could 'the West' supply? The only candidate available in large numbers is F-16.

The way things have been going, the war could last for years, so how about getting started on an emergency programme to train pilots and support personnel on F-16? Won't get done in a day. Or a week. Or a month. But it might get done in a year.

I refer again to the conclusion Justin Brock of RUSI came to, if available Gripen.
Ukraine has been getting more Western air defence systems covering the spectrum from longer range area defence, right down to MANPADs and cannon.
To make, or repair, the sort of runways and facilities other types, F-16 included, would mean a lot more of those, as Russia would likely throw everything at it.
Plus Gripen was designed from the ground up to be used from the sort of austere strips, with small numbers of largely conscripts servicing them.
Not the perfect stretches of concrete for other Western types.

Being able to operate from these dispersed airfields is what has kept the Ukrainian AF in the fight, with their Russian types also designed for limited airfields and ease of maintenance.
Gripen brings what their MiG-29’s and early model SU-27 cannot, potentially matching the Russian advantage in radar and longer range AAM’s from within their airspace.

The position of the intake on F-16 is in the worst place for that sort of operation, Typhoon to an extent too.
Hungary a Gripen user, won’t cooperate, the Czechs are seeking to replace their Gripens with F-35’s, they might accept an RAF deployment to fill the gap allowing them to supply Ukraine and have AD protection until the F-35’s arrive.
Which would also mean not disposing of Tranche 1 Typhoons too.
Otherwise it’s Sweden.
If it is eventually F-16, then said defences will be needed for where they would operate from and it would have to be well West of Ukraine, close to Poland.

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-conflict

Like it or not, public support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine seems to be very strong. It sounds like Russian patriots are ready and willing to play their part in the war. Any reason to think that will change in the months or years to come?

Some of us are old enough to remember when American patriots thought serving their country in Vietnam was the only way to avoid disgrace. In time the society came around to the idea that the whole war made no sense. It took ten years, but that was long before we had anything like social media. Let's hope it takes Russia less time to figure it out.

Like it or not, Russia has not been ostracised by the countries of the world. Links with the largest and second largest countries by population are strengthening.

Good. Those people drive hard bargains. Putin will long for the day when he could sell oil and gas at world market rates and just put it in a pipeline to deliver it. All three are high on the world scale for corruption, so this will help the corrupt siphon off more funds and their country's living standards to drop. As the saying goes, lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas.

Like it or not, the Russian currency and the Russian economy have not collapsed as many predicted would happen.

Give it time.

Short of Ukraine's international backers massively raising their military support, this conflict looks set to drag on for years, doesn't it?

That's all on Russia, isn't it? They started it, they can end it any time they choose.

art wrote:

My point is that Russia is setting up alternative arrangements after being excluded from the international financial system and that there are countries co-operating with Russia to achieve that aim.

I think that Russia and India are also working on a trade agreement.

I think you're missing the big point.

Putin's ideology is about a multi-polar world, with Russia as one of the poles.

The things you're posting suggest a future bi-polar world, West vs East, but in that scenario Russia is a junior partner to China and India.

That junior status will be impossible to hide, which goes against all that posturing about a mighty Russia that the world respects, and will be fatal to the Putin regime.

All deals being made now are disadvantageous to Russia since they are being made under duress.

Russia does not produce much if any advanced technology products, all they are bringing to the deal is their natural resources.

Of course China and India are willing to buy such things at below market prices. They are commodities, so why not buy the cheapest?

On the other hand, China and India haven't burned their bridges to the West, and aren't going to agree to any deal that does so.

They're just taking advantage of a weak Russia to elevate their status on the world stage and to get cheap oil and gas.

So what we have right now is a lot like a high school dance, with a lot of posturing and flirting, but with everyone weary of the implications of partnering.

Perhaps a few partnerships begin or end, but at the end of the night most will go home with the one they brought.

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-conflict

Like it or not, public support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine seems to be very strong. It sounds like Russian patriots are ready and willing to play their part in the war. Any reason to think that will change in the months or years to come?

Some of us are old enough to remember when American patriots thought serving their country in Vietnam was the only way to avoid disgrace. In time the society came around to the idea that the whole war made no sense. It took ten years, but that was long before we had anything like social media. Let's hope it takes Russia less time to figure it out.

No disrespect intended, but not really a parallel - there was never any suggestion that Vietnam was or ever had been part of America or Australia. No foreign troops fighting there were defending their motherland.

Short of Ukraine's international backers massively raising their military support, this conflict looks set to drag on for years, doesn't it?

That's all on Russia, isn't it? They started it, they can end it any time they choose.

The problem is that Putin has no intention of leaving Ukraine. In a way, the only way for that to happen is through Ukrainian forces putting Russian forces in a hopeless position militarily. The only way for that to happen, I suggest, is through Ukrainian forces being supplied with much more weaponry by 'the West'.