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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:16 pm

bikerthai wrote:
art wrote:
Is it perhaps that the Wagner troops use so much ammunition that supplies cannot keep up with the rate at which it is being used and thus they run low on ammunition?

I read/heard somewhere that Wagner used to have the best weapons and their own excess supply of ammo, being Putin's favorite lap dog and all. Now that they are folded in to the rest of the Russian army, they are getting the same supply volume as the rest of the army, which is less than what they are used to. So they complain.

Or all the complaining is just a pre-planned excuse should they fail to take Bakhmut, now that the winter offensive is winding down.

It's an interesting situation. Clearly Wagner was in favor with Putin because they were vital to success in Syria, and were (allegedly) willing to take on tasks such as forming hit squads to purge the Ukrainian leadership once the Russian Army took Kiev (which of course did not happen). Yet now Prigozhin finds himself sidelined, and I'm not sure why. Clearly he hasn't met the goal of taking Bahkmut, but there's lots of reasons why that is true. Wagner is (allegedly) largely self-funded due to its control of sources of "blood diamonds" in Africa, so they should have some staying power, but on the other hand if the Russian MoD controls the supply lines, there's not much Wagner can do about that.

Putin is said to be a person who is insecure and holds grudges, so once you get on his bad side it's hard to get back onto his good side. I'm not sure this public complaining is doing him any good, but it seems he has no other choice? Is Prigozhin too big to fail? It'll be interesting if he falls out a window or finds out there was polonium in his tea, but I kinda doubt it, I kinda think he's still useful to Putin so if nothing else he'll stay on the sidelines.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:37 pm

Prigozhin has complained that the Russian ministry of defence is not supporting Wagner’s efforts in terms of men and ammunition.

“If the private mercenary force Wagner retreats from Bakhmut, the whole front will crumble … to the Russian borders and maybe further,” said Prigozhin in a video address on Sunday.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... re-support

Obviously I have little idea of what is happening compared to Prigozhin but I am surprised to hear that if his force has to retreat the entire Russian army will hightail it back to Russia proper. I look forward to the Wagner force retreating from Bakhmut if that means the war will then be over!
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:01 pm

https://youtu.be/GhktiRFNpUY

So if Abrams tanks for Ukraine is already at German port, then they should be ready for the Spring offensive.

These could also be for US forces. And the video is mistaken.


bt
Last edited by bikerthai on Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:03 pm

art wrote:
Prigozhin has complained that the Russian ministry of defence is not supporting Wagner’s efforts in terms of men and ammunition.

“If the private mercenary force Wagner retreats from Bakhmut, the whole front will crumble … to the Russian borders and maybe further,” said Prigozhin in a video address on Sunday.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... re-support

Obviously I have little idea of what is happening compared to Prigozhin but I am surprised to hear that if his force has to retreat the entire Russian army will hightail it back to Russia proper. I look forward to the Wagner force retreating from Bakhmut if that means the war will then be over!


I refer you to reply 12382, which goes into detail about Wagner and similar organisations.
Including why perhaps he is saying what he is.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:09 pm

More complaints about being shoved off the stage by Prigozhin:

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his representative had been denied access to the headquarters of Russia's military command in Ukraine on Monday, in a further deepening of his rift with the defence establishment.

Prigozhin said the incident came the day after he urgently requested ammunition supplies from the commander of what Russia calls its "special military operation" (SMO).

"On March 5, I wrote a letter to the commander of the SMO grouping about the urgent need to allocate ammunition. On March 6, at 8 a.m., my representative at the headquarters had his pass cancelled and was denied access," Prigozhin said via his press service on Telegram.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-03-06/

art wrote:
Obviously I have little idea of what is happening compared to Prigozhin but I am surprised to hear that if his force has to retreat the entire Russian army will hightail it back to Russia proper.

It's an interesting gambit: do what I want, or I pull out my troops and the front collapses. As above, it doesn't seem like the Russian MoD is concerned. Presumably they feel if he withdraws his troops he becomes even more irrelevant, and that's exactly what they want. No evidence at all of Putin doing anything to resolve the situation, but it was he who did the recent shakeup that made the MoD's role more prominent, so it seems Prigozhin is being marginalized.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:22 pm

art wrote:
Prigozhin has complained that the Russian ministry of defence is not supporting Wagner’s efforts in terms of men and ammunition.

“If the private mercenary force Wagner retreats from Bakhmut, the whole front will crumble … to the Russian borders and maybe further,” said Prigozhin in a video address on Sunday.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... re-support

Obviously I have little idea of what is happening compared to Prigozhin but I am surprised to hear that if his force has to retreat the entire Russian army will hightail it back to Russia proper. I look forward to the Wagner force retreating from Bakhmut if that means the war will then be over!


Prigozhin is playing his own propoganda game for his own benefit. The brutal way Wagner motivates their recruits does make them dangerous, a portion of their forces are experienced and well-trained (but far from the majority), and their heavy utilization in the primary area of advance for Russia makes them prominent, but they're still only around 10% of the total Russian troops committed to the war. Wagner and Bakhmut are still only one part of the whole war.

While Russia may be rationing ammunition to some degree, they are clearly not out, and they are likely able to manufacture ammunition at several times the pace Ukraine and their supporters can.

A reasonable attempt at developing an open-source estimate of Russia's prewar artillery production is below. It suggests that earlier in their period of support for Ukrainian separatists, Russian artillery production was double that of the US. It was known that Russia was continuing efforts to rebuild their military after the relatively long period of post-USSR decay, and their possibly ambitious estimate of production immediately prior to the invasion may have been on the order of 4 times the rate of US production, with further increases since the start of the war.

https://jamestown.org/program/russia-st ... -part-two/

Russia also would not need as much ammunition to hold their current positions as they need to continue advancing. I do not think there is any prospect of collapse of the Russian lines. Ukraine still needs to prepare carefully for major future counteroffensive operations, and we will find Russian internal power struggles of limited value to guess what will happen next.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:24 pm

I'm seeing a few videos of M-1 and Bradley's "going to the Ukrainian border". I question if these are actually bound for Ukraine or are they for NATO deployment.

Two things I've noticed are:

1) Lack of unit markings on the vehicles.

2) Desert paint scheme.

So if these were designated as NATO deployment, shouldn't it have a forest green camo scheme and unit markings?

Could these vehicle actually be designated for Ukraine where they will get the paint job and marking later when they get in country?

bt
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:37 pm

bikerthai wrote:
I'm seeing a few videos of M-1 and Bradley's "going to the Ukrainian border". I question if these are actually bound for Ukraine or are they for NATO deployment.

Two things I've noticed are:

1) Lack of unit markings on the vehicles.

2) Desert paint scheme.

So if these were designated as NATO deployment, shouldn't it have a forest green camo scheme and unit markings?

Could these vehicle actually be designated for Ukraine where they will get the paint job and marking later when they get in country?

bt


Well it won’t be the M-1’s for Ukraine, not likely to be ready for some time and no sign of training Ukrainians to use them. Unless a very major disinformation effort has been mounted but still there is the logistics required.
So likely for US forces, the Bradley’s might be for Ukraine however though again, logistics and training.

Some of the UK vehicles such as Mastiffs were still in desert camouflage but that’s easily fixed on arrival, where they will be assigned to units.

These BTR-50’s the Russians have pulled from deep storage, the side armor is vulnerable to 5.56mm small arms ammunition, the front to 7.62mm. With the infantry in the middle compartment with the engine behind them, they exit by having to clamber out of the top once the roof hatches are opened.
Death trap.

Update on Bakhmut;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tjnSG9GfMQ
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:30 pm

bikerthai wrote:
https://youtu.be/GhktiRFNpUY

So if Abrams tanks for Ukraine is already at German port, then they should be ready for the Spring offensive.

These could also be for US forces. And the video is mistaken.


The US is periodically rotating equipment in and out of Europe as part of our deterrence commitment referred to as Atlantic Resolve, or for participation in joint exercises.

The previous reports that the US needed to modify M-1 Abrams to have export-compliant armor packages are one reason to be skeptical these are for Ukraine. The video also shows M2A3 Bradley's (the latest version, identifiable by a Commander's Independent Viewer on top of the turret) being offloaded, while Ukraine is reported to be receiving the M2A2 ODS version. Additionally, the ship in the video, Liberty Resolve, is currently shown by vessel tracking sites as in the Arabian, and although I don't have a subscription to be able to view detailed history, it looks like it might not have been in the US since early January, prior to the US announcement we would supply Abrams to Ukraine. The footage is at a minimum several weeks old.

All things considered, this looks to me like part of a routine equipment rotation for US forces in Europe.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:47 pm

If you try to search social media on your own for information on the war, such as by specific cities, you will very quickly start to encounter the Russian propaganda that gets moderated out of most feeds. Some of it fills in the difficulties Ukraine faces their leadership doesn't want to publish. Most of it is carefully crafted messages to build up negative views of Ukraine. And some of it demonstrates the same level of capability as Russia's MoD in general.

In this one, a woman accuses Kyiv of attacking civilians in Eastern Ukraine with...a clutch basket:

https://twitter.com/Seveerity/status/16 ... 2443572226
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:58 pm

US MBT's are unimportant in the short term, aren't they? Lacking in availability, demanding in terms of training(?) and logistics. Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 will have to carry the cause.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:14 pm

art wrote:
US MBT's are unimportant in the short term, aren't they? Lacking in availability, demanding in terms of training(?) and logistics. Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 will have to carry the cause.



Looks like it. We have about a month and a half to see those tanks across the Ukrainian border to be ready for the Spring offensive.

Realistically, even the Leopard 1 will be of help to provide fire support seeing how that Ukrainian T-64 turned those Russian armored vehicle into junk.

bt
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:15 pm

A few data points on the Russian budget status which shows a large deficit for the first 2 months of the year

Russia's federal budget deficit widened to 2.58 trillion roubles ($34.19 billion) in the first two months of the year as Moscow drastically raised expenditure while revenue fell amid slumping oil and gas takings


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-jan-feb-budget-deficit-134000849.html

This deficit is equivalent to about 3% of the RU annual GDP. But watch out, the monthly budget balance is highly volatil and shouldn't be extrapolated to the whole year. I appears that the first source of volatility are the expenditures, while the revenues have a degree of volatility since the rely heavily on the oil & gas revenues. Case in point, the February budget deficit was only half of that of January. But looking at the big picture, with reduced energy revenues and higher expenditures to support its war machine, the Russian budget balance is significantly degrade when compared to a year ago.

More on the expenditures volatility here:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89009
 
N726PA
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:31 pm

Question on overflying Russia:

I'm certain this has been discussed on a couple of forums but a concern that I've had is;

1. We see many airlines still flying through Russia to the US. This is especially true of AI and the ME3 airlines.

2. We see Turkish airlines running more flights than the Berlin airlift (if you count total flights and capacity). Why as a supposed NATO member allowing this to happen? As a member of NATO and an EU want to be how could this happen. I see Turkey continue to attack Kurds in Iraq and Syria, the same people that support both the US and NATO in fighting ISIS.

Should the EU ban all flights into Russia flying over the EU.? I'm sure this would never happen because of their dependency on tourists to support their economy and the oil they need.

Just a couple of thoughts.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:00 am

Reusing captured Russian armour along with modern Western systems;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0xAotG617A

Though the final comment might be true of two 'Western Capitals'.
 
Dogman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:17 am

Russians executed a captured Ukrainian after he refused to praise Russia and Putin, saying "Glory to Ukraine" instead. https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/16 ... gr%5Etweet
 
aristoenigma
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 2:00 am

I pray the ruskies get demolished
 
JJJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:22 am

N726PA wrote:
.

2. We see Turkish airlines running more flights than the Berlin airlift (if you count total flights and capacity). Why as a supposed NATO member allowing this to happen?


Because they are making a killing as the platform country of choice to evade sanctions.

Turkey has been acting rogue for a while with Erdogan playing Putin-lite with his own sphere of influence and more often than not NATO has actually covered for him rather than calling him out.
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:15 am

Russia is currently managing to get essential microchips and other technology via Turkey and China with the help of proxy companies. Whether it will continue to do so depends on what export controls Western countries apply to these products.


https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89009

I don't suppose that much can be done to suppress the transfer of microchips from China to Russia but might the west take action to discourage these goods 'leaking' into Russia via Turkey?
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 10:22 am

art wrote:
Russia is currently managing to get essential microchips and other technology via Turkey and China with the help of proxy companies. Whether it will continue to do so depends on what export controls Western countries apply to these products.


https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89009

I don't suppose that much can be done to suppress the transfer of microchips from China to Russia but might the west take action to discourage these goods 'leaking' into Russia via Turkey?


Probably not a lot, however it’s one thing to get some of this stuff to evaluate, see if they can be produced locally and at scale, which is what you need for full scale war production. Which in turn once established could stymie tough new measures against China in retaliation for helping Russia, the sanctions then would be closing the stable door once the horse has bolted.

If Russia does not have the technology or facilities to do this, they can I they could maybe create them.
But look who have left the country in droves, at the start of the war and huge additional numbers when mobilization happened.
Just the people with the technical and educational backgrounds required.
That’s before we get into the notorious corruption in Russia, some results of which are strewn in wrecked vehicles and bodies in Ukraine and at the bottom of the Black Sea.

Turkey is trying to play both sides, where does the most famous and for the Ukrainians, early propaganda as well as operational asset come from originally, with some additional supplies since? The Turkish drone and its weapons. Not the only system they have are are still supplying either.
China has to make a choice, the CCP’s grip on power relies on a mix of authoritarian control and economic stability, however false and contrived the latter might be.
So they rely on the world market, mainly the West, go all in with Russia and they will be sanctioned heavily, already the US administration is supporting bringing some offshore production home and more in the EU are urging they do similar.
Go in with Russia and China are selling to a shrinking population, getting poorer with horrible demographic trends, worse than China’s, made worse still by the war.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:47 pm

What do you all think of the Warthog Defense video where the clip is shown from Russian TV -
RUSSIAN MAIN PROPAGANDIST ADMITS THAT RUSSIAN CAN'T WIN THIS WAR || 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvW3F2HaDX0

IMO for this to be broadcast to the entire Russian Federation, something must be up.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:56 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
What do you all think of the Warthog Defense video where the clip is shown from Russian TV -
RUSSIAN MAIN PROPAGANDIST ADMITS THAT RUSSIAN CAN'T WIN THIS WAR || 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvW3F2HaDX0

IMO for this to be broadcast to the entire Russian Federation, something must be up.


I am very surprised by this broadcast. By the way from the on screen translation I recall the speaker saying that Russia winning was not certain rather than Russia losing was certain. It would be interesting to see or read the reaction from Russian media.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 2:15 pm

A potential weak spot for Putin, the shaky regime to the North of Ukraine?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... imir-putin

Russian standard practice;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... illing-pow

This seems to be who the victim was;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-soldiers

War crimes on a massive scale, really don't want to hear about 'not humiliating' Russia, nor any easing of any sanctions until not only financial reparations are paid but this resolved too, once they've been driven from Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tSe6f8vTUM
 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:28 pm

JJJ wrote:
N726PA wrote:
We see Turkish airlines running more flights than the Berlin airlift (if you count total flights and capacity). Why as a supposed NATO member allowing this to happen?

Because they are making a killing as the platform country of choice to evade sanctions.

Turkey has been acting rogue for a while with Erdogan playing Putin-lite with his own sphere of influence and more often than not NATO has actually covered for him rather than calling him out.

All true. Turkey is playing a role like Switzerland did in WWII, working both sides to its own advantage. Turkey has been doing this for a long time already. They know the bases they provided that let NATO monitor the USSR were really valuable, and they extracted a lot of value from providing them. They aren't the traditional NATO member just looking to NATO as a defensive shield, they use it as a bargaining chip all the time. See their response to Sweden's membership request as just one more example.

GDB wrote:
Probably not a lot, however it’s one thing to get some of this stuff to evaluate, see if they can be produced locally and at scale, which is what you need for full scale war production. Which in turn once established could stymie tough new measures against China in retaliation for helping Russia, the sanctions then would be closing the stable door once the horse has bolted.

If Russia does not have the technology or facilities to do this, they can I they could maybe create them.
But look who have left the country in droves, at the start of the war and huge additional numbers when mobilization happened.
Just the people with the technical and educational backgrounds required.
That’s before we get into the notorious corruption in Russia, some results of which are strewn in wrecked vehicles and bodies in Ukraine and at the bottom of the Black Sea.

They really can't. Some things at the bleeding edge of technology are the end result of decades of specialization, and you can't just clone this overnight, or even after decades of trying to catch up.

One example familiar to us would be jet engines. Try as they may, the Russian jet engines are so inefficient and unreliable they just aren't able to serve as a commercially viable alternative to Western engines. Same thing holds true with regards to chip production. They can produce some chips, but not ones in the same league as Western chips.

Greed and corruption fed into this issue. Why keep knocking your head against the wall to try to keep up when you can just buy the Western products? Keep taking those research grants, maybe push out some hand-crafted prototypes, but in the end everyone knows you're just going through the motions. We can say some similar things about Western supply chains, but IMO it's not at all the same thing.

MohawkWeekend wrote:
What do you all think of the Warthog Defense video where the clip is shown from Russian TV -
RUSSIAN MAIN PROPAGANDIST ADMITS THAT RUSSIAN CAN'T WIN THIS WAR || 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvW3F2HaDX0

IMO for this to be broadcast to the entire Russian Federation, something must be up.

Things change. At one point in time everyone believed the US would win in Vietnam, the USSR would win in Afghanistan, the Berlin Wall would stand forever, the US would win in Afghanistan, etc. It is more than possible that Russia will crack. The idea is to just keep up the pressure till it happens.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
Things change. At one point in time everyone believed the US would win in Vietnam, the USSR would win in Afghanistan, the Berlin Wall would stand forever, the US would win in Afghanistan, etc. It is more than possible that Russia will crack. The idea is to just keep up the pressure till it happens.
I believe that Russia today is much more brittle than it was at the end of the USSR. Then, it was a whole system that had been in power for 70+ years. Now it's just one ageing man who consolidated his power only a decade ago.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:00 pm

Weapons-watchers here might appreciate:

WarZone: Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine

The Ukrainian Air Force can now employ Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range precision-guided bombs, or JDAM-ERs, against Russian forces, says the U.S. Air Force's top officer in Europe. Ukraine's stockpile of these bombs, which can hit targets up to 45 miles away thanks to their pop-out wing kits, is currently relatively small. However, they could already present real problems for Russia's military as The War Zone has previously explored in detail.

U.S. Air Force Gen. James Hecker, head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE), as well as NATO's Allied Air Command and U.S. Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA), provided details about Ukraine's use of the JDAM-ER at a media roundtable that The War Zone and other outlets attended earlier today. The roundtable occurred on the sidelines of the 2023 Air and Space Forces Association's Warfare Symposium, which opened today in Aurora, Colorado.

One disappointment: "It's also not clear what platforms Ukrainian forces are using to deliver these weapons", yet it says "MiG-29s and Su-27s also simply represent the bulk of Ukraine's tactical aviation fleets" so are the likely platforms.

The article suggests that the video in the tweet https://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 9018334215 may be showing a JDAM-ER impact. It sure is visually and audibly impressive!

I know people want the West to give Ukraine every weapon system yesterday, but there are real-world reasons why it doesn't go down that way. The good news is we see the Ukrainian capabilities growing week by week while we see the Russian capabilities degrading week by week. For instance we see elite units now having to use T-62 tanks, ones that were designed over 60 years ago.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:01 pm

 
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Revelation
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:08 pm

alberchico wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

Stunning development if true.

If true... Hard to understand how such forces would be able to place charges so precisely at two different sites without being detected. Far easier to understand how a US submarine specifically designed to be undetectable could, and why US intelligence would want others to focus elsewhere.

Another source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/ ... ack-a80419
Another source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 023-03-07/
 
Newark727
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:10 pm

Revelation wrote:


From this article:
U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it


Well, glad we've got that all cleared up...
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
alberchico wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

Stunning development if true.

If true... Hard to understand how such forces would be able to place charges so precisely at two different sites without being detected. Far easier to understand how a US submarine specifically designed to be undetectable could, and why US intelligence would want others to focus elsewhere.

Another source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/ ... ack-a80419
Another source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 023-03-07/

The Reuters article says it was actually 3 pipelines destroyed.
The two Nordstream 1 and one Nordstream 2.

Newark727 wrote:
Revelation wrote:


From this article:
U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it


Well, glad we've got that all cleared up...
This sounds like the recent Covid theories.

I guess we'll also have to wait for the Swedish and/or Danish results if they are ever published.
 
Dogman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:19 pm

They say pro Ukrainian, not Ukrainian. Can we call the USA pro Ukrainian?
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:54 pm

Dogman wrote:
They say pro Ukrainian, not Ukrainian. Can we call the USA pro Ukrainian?


Yes but the US has already deflected to anti-Putin "Ukrainian or Russian" elements.

bt
 
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:14 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Dogman wrote:
They say pro Ukrainian, not Ukrainian. Can we call the USA pro Ukrainian?


Yes but the US has already deflected to anti-Putin "Ukrainian or Russian" elements.

bt

Who maybe could have been... supported... by US assets? :scratchchin:

Newark727 wrote:
Revelation wrote:


From this article:
U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it


Well, glad we've got that all cleared up...

Yeah, I thought that too as I read the links.

Tugg
 
tomcat
Posts: 1216
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
Weapons-watchers here might appreciate:

WarZone: Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine

The article suggests that the video in the tweet https://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 9018334215 may be showing a JDAM-ER impact. It sure is visually and audibly impressive!



The vocal reaction of the soldier indicates he just saw something unusual indeed :shock: .

There are also some recent indications that Ukraine might have fielded its new Vilkha-M:

Ukraine has started upgrading its 300mm BM-30 'Smerch' multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) to enable the use of new guided munitions that offer both significantly increased accuracy as well as a vastly increased range over their unguided predecessors.


Although definitely in a different class than SRBMs, the Vilkha-M could end up taking over some of the firing missions currently entrusted to Tochka-U SRBMs that make up the sole long-range ground-based missile asset of Ukraine. Offering a similar range but twelve times the number of munitions and much increased accuracy at the cost of a smaller warhead (half the size of that of the Tochha-U), the Vilkha-M presents a considerable increase in firepower and general capabilities to Ukraine.


The above quotes date from 2021:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/05/novel-capabilities-ukraines-vilkha-mrl.html

But the following picture was shared only a few hours ago with a comment leading to believe the Vilkha-M had recently been used:
https://twitter.com/david_lisovtsev/status/1633095491771572225
 
tomcat
Posts: 1216
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:52 pm

There are also talks about integrating western AAM on the Ukrainian fighter jets. The AMRAAM is cited as the potential candidate:
Officials are looking into whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16, can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions.


Besides supporting the expected Ukrainian offensive, fielding the AMRAAM in Ukraine is also motivated by providing additional air defense assets to Ukraine.
Officials are concerned that Ukraine is running low on air defenses as Russia continues missile attacks and even sends decoy balloons with radar reflectors to deplete Ukrainian missiles.


Of interest as well:
Ukraine has been pushing for modern fighter jets for the conflict, among other things to help with air defense, but so far there is little appetite among Western leaders to send more advanced aircraft such as the F-16. Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. to do an assessment of their skills on simulators at an Air National Guard base in Tucson, Ariz., but officials said they will not fly American aircraft.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/u-s-military-air-to-air-missiles-ukrainian-migs-00085877
 
GDB
Posts: 17063
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:01 pm

tomcat wrote:
There are also talks about integrating western AAM on the Ukrainian fighter jets. The AMRAAM is cited as the potential candidate:
Officials are looking into whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16, can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions.


Besides supporting the expected Ukrainian offensive, fielding the AMRAAM in Ukraine is also motivated by providing additional air defense assets to Ukraine.
Officials are concerned that Ukraine is running low on air defenses as Russia continues missile attacks and even sends decoy balloons with radar reflectors to deplete Ukrainian missiles.


Of interest as well:
Ukraine has been pushing for modern fighter jets for the conflict, among other things to help with air defense, but so far there is little appetite among Western leaders to send more advanced aircraft such as the F-16. Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. to do an assessment of their skills on simulators at an Air National Guard base in Tucson, Ariz., but officials said they will not fly American aircraft.


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/u-s-military-air-to-air-missiles-ukrainian-migs-00085877[/quote

That would be useful, though I wonder (if anyone knows it would be interesting) if the radar performance of donated F-16's, they will be likely ex European NATO, the Netherlands seem keen, would allow them to exploit AMRAAM enough to go after those SU-27's and in particular Mig-31's using long range AAM's in Russian airspace.
I say this because even with AMRAAM, the Mig-29's won't have, however the Ukrainian SU-27's might, probably would as the older model AAM's they have has stymied attempts at going after those Russian aircraft.

On a more negative note, reports on the UK supplying an additional batch of Challenger 2's to Ukraine have not been officially confirmed by the MoD. The source was the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK.
Then this, I said before how the UK Defence Secretary stands out from the rest of the government by not being an idiot, corrupt, or both. Here's a result of their earlier 'work';
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... or-ukraine

On Nord Stream, I think too likely a group similar to who carried out the attempted assassination of Dugina but got his daughter, who was also a virulent Russian nationalist;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -pipelines

The real Culture War, in the midst of an actual one;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nguage-war

It was asked about other MLR systems earlier, here's a Ukrainian developed one;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlv3IdETp_8
 
GDB
Posts: 17063
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:33 pm

With Ukrainian gunners on the front line;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAOQGnSGNEg
A study in equipment and their doctrinal contrasts.

General report and one injured Ukrainian soldiers experience;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS-N5o-y3Co
 
tomcat
Posts: 1216
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:57 pm

GDB wrote:
tomcat wrote:
There are also talks about integrating western AAM on the Ukrainian fighter jets. The AMRAAM is cited as the potential candidate:
Officials are looking into whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16, can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions.


Besides supporting the expected Ukrainian offensive, fielding the AMRAAM in Ukraine is also motivated by providing additional air defense assets to Ukraine.
Officials are concerned that Ukraine is running low on air defenses as Russia continues missile attacks and even sends decoy balloons with radar reflectors to deplete Ukrainian missiles.




https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/u-s-military-air-to-air-missiles-ukrainian-migs-00085877[/quote

That would be useful, though I wonder (if anyone knows it would be interesting) if the radar performance of donated F-16's, they will be likely ex European NATO, the Netherlands seem keen, would allow them to exploit AMRAAM enough to go after those SU-27's and in particular Mig-31's using long range AAM's in Russian airspace.
I say this because even with AMRAAM, the Mig-29's won't have, however the Ukrainian SU-27's might, probably would as the older model AAM's they have has stymied attempts at going after those Russian aircraft.


Not fully answering your question but providing some clues about the current radar performance of the Dutch F-16's (MLU):
Fire Control Radar
The Westinghouse AN/APG-66(V2) Fire Control Radar (FCR) will be equipped with an completely new signal data processor. It allows a track-while-scan mode for up to ten targets as well as a six-on-six AIM-120 AMRAAM capability. Other features include a 25% improvement in detection and tracking range


https://www.f-16.net/f-16_versions_article2.html

Some more thoughts of mine on this subject:
- the radar range of any F-16 currently in service in a NATO country or recently retired is good enough to make good use of the AIM-120C/D (the D is said to have a range in excess of 100 miles per Wikipedia).
- the Mig-31 is no small target and they're patrolling at medium-to-high altitude. Detecting them from 100+ miles shouldn't be a great challenge for an aircraft capable of firing the AIM-120. The Su-35 isn't specially stealth and nimble either.
- the issue I see isn't so much to detect the Mig-31 than (attempting to) shooting it down. His long range AAM has a longer range and a greater speed than the AIM-120D and this advantage can be further enhanced by the speed and altitude at which the Mig-31 can launch its missiles. The Meteor would be better suited than the AIM-120 for this mission but it might still fall short of range. In any case, the Gripen would be the best candidate to operate the Meteor in Ukraine (unless a crash program would make a bunch of to-be-donated-F-16 capable of firing it).
- given the above, I don't think the UA Air Force has any intention to go after these patrolling aircraft flying within the Russian borders (and maybe over Crimea). They are anyway harmless as long as one doesn't get too close to them.
- I rather see 3 other use-cases for the AIM-120 in Ukraine:
1) Pure air defense to supplement the SAM batteries. They would go after the cruise missiles launched at Ukraine. Remember, one of the concerns is that Ukraine is exhausting its SAM resources and the west doesn't have vast inventories of SAM, while the AIM-120 is fairly ubiquitous (even Belgium has some in their inventory, mind you :-) ).
2)3) Air cover for the front line and deterrence. The Ukrainian fighters could remain at a safe distance from the front line (so avoiding to be exposed to the RU SAM and to the more distant Mig-31 patrols) while deterring the Russian air assets to provide on one hand ,close air support or, on the other hand, to launch stand-off ground attacks with their medium-range precision weapons.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:00 am

tomcat wrote:
GDB wrote:
tomcat wrote:
There are also talks about integrating western AAM on the Ukrainian fighter jets. The AMRAAM is cited as the potential candidate:


Besides supporting the expected Ukrainian offensive, fielding the AMRAAM in Ukraine is also motivated by providing additional air defense assets to Ukraine.




https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/u-s-military-air-to-air-missiles-ukrainian-migs-00085877[/quote

That would be useful, though I wonder (if anyone knows it would be interesting) if the radar performance of donated F-16's, they will be likely ex European NATO, the Netherlands seem keen, would allow them to exploit AMRAAM enough to go after those SU-27's and in particular Mig-31's using long range AAM's in Russian airspace.
I say this because even with AMRAAM, the Mig-29's won't have, however the Ukrainian SU-27's might, probably would as the older model AAM's they have has stymied attempts at going after those Russian aircraft.


Not fully answering your question but providing some clues about the current radar performance of the Dutch F-16's (MLU):
Fire Control Radar
The Westinghouse AN/APG-66(V2) Fire Control Radar (FCR) will be equipped with an completely new signal data processor. It allows a track-while-scan mode for up to ten targets as well as a six-on-six AIM-120 AMRAAM capability. Other features include a 25% improvement in detection and tracking range


https://www.f-16.net/f-16_versions_article2.html

Some more thoughts of mine on this subject:
- the radar range of any F-16 currently in service in a NATO country or recently retired is good enough to make good use of the AIM-120C/D (the D is said to have a range in excess of 100 miles per Wikipedia).
- the Mig-31 is no small target and they're patrolling at medium-to-high altitude. Detecting them from 100+ miles shouldn't be a great challenge for an aircraft capable of firing the AIM-120. The Su-35 isn't specially stealth and nimble either.
- the issue I see isn't so much to detect the Mig-31 than (attempting to) shooting it down. His long range AAM has a longer range and a greater speed than the AIM-120D and this advantage can be further enhanced by the speed and altitude at which the Mig-31 can launch its missiles. The Meteor would be better suited than the AIM-120 for this mission but it might still fall short of range. In any case, the Gripen would be the best candidate to operate the Meteor in Ukraine (unless a crash program would make a bunch of to-be-donated-F-16 capable of firing it).
- given the above, I don't think the UA Air Force has any intention to go after these patrolling aircraft flying within the Russian borders (and maybe over Crimea). They are anyway harmless as long as one doesn't get too close to them.
- I rather see 3 other use-cases for the AIM-120 in Ukraine:
1) Pure air defense to supplement the SAM batteries. They would go after the cruise missiles launched at Ukraine. Remember, one of the concerns is that Ukraine is exhausting its SAM resources and the west doesn't have vast inventories of SAM, while the AIM-120 is fairly ubiquitous (even Belgium has some in their inventory, mind you :-) ).
2)3) Air cover for the front line and deterrence. The Ukrainian fighters could remain at a safe distance from the front line (so avoiding to be exposed to the RU SAM and to the more distant Mig-31 patrols) while deterring the Russian air assets to provide on one hand ,close air support or, on the other hand, to launch stand-off ground attacks with their medium-range precision weapons.


Thanks, informative and thought provoking.
I agree that the need to replenish the AIM-120 compatible SAM systems is the main need, the UK has certainly provided a lot as Meteor comes in and older AIM-120’s start to get near their lifespan limit.
On that note, I am intrigued that the US is supplying Sea Sparrow to integrate on to the BUK system, even less likely sounding a year ago than AGM-88 on to MiG-29 and SU-27 in weeks, a few months at most and into operation. So no reason to think they won’t be effective.
Meanwhile the Russians pull twin 25mm 1950’s naval AA cannon, last used on torpedo and early missile boats, on to MTLB vehicles.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:02 am

GDB wrote:
With Ukrainian gunners on the front line;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAOQGnSGNEg
A study in equipment and their doctrinal contrasts.

Suck a dick, and not Bakhmut.... (at1:25)
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Tugg
 
GDB
Posts: 17063
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:06 pm

A summary of the A-50U in Belrarus;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLpO-fyWBpc

With Canadian and Polish instructors, training Ukrainians in Leopard 2's at a base in Poland;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtawNwACOv8
 
art
Posts: 5724
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:59 pm

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said he can't rule out that Russian forces will soon take over the eastern city of Bakhmut.


https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... index.html

I think that the part of Bakhmut east of the river is already in Wagner's hands.

The leader of Russia’s mercenary forces fighting in Bakhmut said Wednesday that his private military company, the Wagner Group, had taken full control of the eastern part of the city. CNBC was unable to verify the claims.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/ukraine ... raine.html
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 28731
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:05 pm

GDB wrote:
On Nord Stream, I think too likely a group similar to who carried out the attempted assassination of Dugina but got his daughter, who was also a virulent Russian nationalist;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -pipelines

A lot more detail in that article compared to yesterday's links:

German investigators believe the attack on the pipelines was carried out by a team of six people, using a yacht that had been hired by a company registered in Poland and owned by two Ukrainian citizens, according to Die Zeit.
...
Six people were involved in the operation to transport explosives to the site, the yacht’s captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a doctor. All six were understood to have used professionally faked passports, said Die Zeit, with their real identities still unclear.

The yacht set sail from the German port city of Rostock on 6 September. The equipment for the secret operation was previously transported to the port in a delivery truck, according to Die Zeit. After its return, investigators found traces of explosives on one of the tables inside the hired vessel.

The interesting thing is this rules no one in or no one out.

IMO the Rus FSB is more than capable of fielding such a team, or the US CIA, or UK, or Poland, or ...

GDB wrote:
The real Culture War, in the midst of an actual one;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nguage-war

Also a topic of interest to me:

Until last year Kyiv was largely a Russian-speaking city. A survey in January revealed that since Putin’s invasion a year ago, 33% of Kyivans have adopted the Ukrainian language. About 46% said they had been speaking Ukrainian for a long time. Another 13% remain Russian speakers.

Ukrainians are bilingual. Ukrainian has traditionally been spoken in the west of the country with Russian more prevalent in the south and east. The most prominent switcher is Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who grew up in the central Russophone metallurgical city of Kryvyi Rih.

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around what it means to be a Russian-speaking Ukrainian. The closest thing I can relate it with are Spanish-speaking Americans, but as the article says "We see it from the point of view of a post-colonial country" and the US wasn't colonized by a Spanish-speaking nation (despite what some people may suggest), if anything it was the other way around.

I watched Ushanka Show: Am I Russian, Soviet Or Ukrainian? on u2b and it tried to address the issue from the point of view of the video's creator, who ends up describing himself as a Russian-Speaking Soviet-Era Ukrainian. He explains the laws of the 1950s or so pretty much banned teaching Ukrainian in schools, so the only way a kid of his generation would have learned Ukrainian is if their parents used it and/or taught it at home, which his did not. But he doesn't really explain how that transition happened, since I presume his parents were Ukrainian speakers. I guess the parents had to learn enough Russian to function in the Ukrainian society of the day, and used that to communicate with their kids? He says his own command of Ukrainian is not good.

My parents are immigrants. They were taught the "old country" language as kids at home in the "old country" and learned English in school in the USA. Their mother, my grandmother, learned enough English to communicate effectively with us grandkids, co-workers, etc. My grandfather did not learn more than a few words in English. So, the transition period really happened in my parent's lifetime. By the time we were born, English was the preferred language. But if my parents were a few years older they would not have learned English in school and chances are they would only have English as a second language, and me and my brothers would have been the ones to make the transition. I know some friends of the family that ended up being in this situation.

I recently met someone who was raised in one of the "colonized" parts of the USSR who was taught Russian in school, to the point where she now views Russian as her "native language". IMO it shows the cultural assimilation strategy is an effective one. Her points of view are definitely pro-Russian, to the point of her saying things like Ukrainians are Nazis, etc. It was very disappointing and even stunning for me to hear her thoughts on the matter. Her husband rapidly shifted the topic of conversation to something else. In retrospect part of me wished I had drilled deeper on the topic, but another part of me realizes we would have ended up in an ugly argument. Bottom line though is I no longer have much if any respect for her. I realize we're all raised with different influences and have different opinions, but IMO her opinions are totally wrong.

The decline of Russian among its native users in Ukraine is ironic. One of the reasons Putin gave for subjugating the country was to “save” its Russian speakers. Since February the Russian army has killed thousands of Russian-speaking civilians, destroying Mariupol entirely and pounding the southern city of Kherson since its liberation in November.

Yep, Putin's goals and his methods are in direct contradiction. His methods of making Ukraine closer to Russia are what is making Ukrainians want to be as far apart from being Russian as they can possibly be.
 
GDB
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 5:04 pm

I doubt the CIA with this, despite the hype and movies and general paranoia about them, not a great record, how many times did they try and kill Castro (the 'secret' Bays Of Pigs' farce was common knowledge in Florida, the Central American states etc), didn't see the Shah falling despite a massive in country presence, 9/11, too busy playing politics with FBI....
MI6, besides Putin's paranoia, are civil servants with no authority to kill anyone, despite the impression given by the oldest of that most tedious of things, the movie superhero franchise.

False flag by Russia? Possible but still I think most likely is dissidents, after all they got to that ultra nationalists family, car, in Moscow, I would be interested in what explosive they used, if it wasn't something that could be made with available ingredients, what the British Army called IRA bombs before they got Semtex, 'Co-Op Mix'.
 
wingman
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:32 pm

Whoever it was I'm glad they did it. If the person keeping the neighborhood afloat gets addicted to crack and the neighborhood starts going to hell, the best first step is cutting them off. Addiction clouds your judgement and dealers are scum. Just like Putin they work to bring everyone down to their scummy little world of hopelessness and depravity. If they were Ukranians give all six medals of freedom.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1765
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:49 pm

art wrote:
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said he can't rule out that Russian forces will soon take over the eastern city of Bakhmut.


https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... index.html

I think that the part of Bakhmut east of the river is already in Wagner's hands.

The leader of Russia’s mercenary forces fighting in Bakhmut said Wednesday that his private military company, the Wagner Group, had taken full control of the eastern part of the city. CNBC was unable to verify the claims.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/ukraine ... raine.html


I would consider it confirmed at this time. Ukraine blew the remaining bridge over the Bakhmutovka River over the weekend, and Russian forces started showing images along the east side of the river on Monday. The following is Wagner troops raising the company's flag on a WWII monument that is just a few hundred meters from the river on the main highway through the city:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... mY3KgtAAAA

So at this time, the eastern third of Bakhmut is under Russian control, and they have reached reservoirs and a tributary of the river on the north of the city, and residential areas on the south side of the city. It appears Ukraine has increased their defenses against the southern advance in particular, and counterattacked to push Russian troops back away from the T0504 highway, the only significant road still in Ukrainian hands. The latest reports I have found are that Russia does not have line of sight to fire directly at vehicles on the highway, but can easily shell it. Ukraine has also been seen using dirt roads to move in and out of the city, but it appears these routes have also been observed by the Russians and shelled. The roads are very muddy, so it is a slow trip, and there are not a few destroyed or stuck vehicles pushed off to the sides of the roads.

I have found this observer's maps to generally be reliable, and it roughly matches the ISW map, but it is easier to link to a snapshot of the situation around Bakhmut than on the ISW map:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1633 ... vQnqotAAAA

With Zelensky making an apparently stronger commitment to Bakhmut yesterday, presumably there will be an increase in Ukrainian counterattacks. My assumption is the motive is primarily to continue attrition of Russian forces, so they may not try to take back much ground at this time, but rather focus on securing routes into and out of the city, and ensuring they hold good defensive positions. Some Ukrainian sources have suggested the casualty ratio is 6:1 or better in Ukraine's favor, while an unofficial NATO estimate of 5:1 has been making rounds. The physical destruction of the city is going to get worse.

Given the current position, however, I would still say there is a high chance that Ukraine will determine it necessary to withdraw, especially since the current positions likely make it difficult to keep the attrition ratio sufficiently high in Ukraine's favor.

Regarding some recent NATO commentary suggesting it would be better to withdraw for the sake of preserving troops for future major counteroffensives, I think that view has merit, but is likely heavily influenced by the focus in NATO doctrine on maneuver warfare. Russia advancing into open areas without time to prepare significant defenses could be vulnerable to a breakthrough. NATO equipment and training are highly focused on creating and exploiting breakthrough opportunities. But the western officers commenting to the media are not necessarily the officers getting detailed intelligence about the status of each sides forces and Ukraine's readiness to conduct such operations on a large scale.

It's a difficult decision to make between focusing on maximizing readiness for expected counteroffensives, or focusing on attrition of Russian forces so they are less able to continue their offensives and hold their captured territories. I've seen some hints that there is significant contention about it within Ukraine's military, although they are not shirking from the mission assigned, and Zelensky's seeming involvement in a military decision is likely intended in part to help unify everyone on the value of continuing to defend Bakhmut.
 
GDB
Posts: 17063
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:58 pm

From the city Russia has being trying to take for 10 months;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6ozTiTxRJY

By contrast, to the grinding, inflexible, careless of their manpower and assets opponent;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfG50Q4tjK0

Of course no substitute for the new heavy armour and flow of trained personnel but useful as we've seen, good for their morale and bad for the Russians.
 
N726PA
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2022 8:57 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:02 pm

I agree fully with you. Viewing FR24 it appears that Turkey has more flights to Russia than the Allies had during the Berlin Airlift
This to me is very bothering considering Turkey's supposed role within NATO. Having worked within NATO both for the old AFSOUTH and USAREUR it's hard for me to understand how having Russian tourists influence Erdogan. All things considered the Turks have always followed the route that is most advantageous to them regardless of their agreements..... quote="JJJ"]
N726PA wrote:
.

2. We see Turkish airlines running more flights than the Berlin airlift (if you count total flights and capacity). as a supposed NATO member allowing this to happen?


Because they are making a killing as the platform country of choice to evade sanctions.

Turkey has been acting rogue for a while with Erdogan playing Putin-lite with his own sphere of influence and more often than not NATO has actually covered for him rather than calling him out.[/quote]
 
marcelh
Posts: 2407
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:28 am

wingman wrote:
Whoever it was I'm glad they did it. If the person keeping the neighborhood afloat gets addicted to crack and the neighborhood starts going to hell, the best first step is cutting them off. Addiction clouds your judgement and dealers are scum. Just like Putin they work to bring everyone down to their scummy little world of hopelessness and depravity. If they were Ukranians give all six medals of freedom.


Time will tell. The “addicted” isn’t clean but has now other suppliers which have leverage for their own purposes.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2407
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:42 am

N726PA wrote:
I agree fully with you. Viewing FR24 it appears that Turkey has more flights to Russia than the Allies had during the Berlin Airlift
This to me is very bothering considering Turkey's supposed role within NATO. Having worked within NATO both for the old AFSOUTH and USAREUR it's hard for me to understand how having Russian tourists influence Erdogan. All things considered the Turks have always followed the route that is most advantageous to them regardless of their agreements..... quote="JJJ"]
N726PA wrote:
.

2. We see Turkish airlines running more flights than the Berlin airlift (if you count total flights and capacity). as a supposed NATO member allowing this to happen?


Because they are making a killing as the platform country of choice to evade sanctions.

Turkey has been acting rogue for a while with Erdogan playing Putin-lite with his own sphere of influence and more often than not NATO has actually covered for him rather than calling him out.
[/quote]

NATO is only a military pact, not a political and economic pact (like the EU). Turkey is a sovereign country and as long as NATO isn’t involved, NATO can’t stop it.

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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos