art wrote:

UK intelligence update - Wagner likely to sustain further heavy losses in Bakmut as it reaches the barrier presented by the Bakhmukta river.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/16 ... 12/photo/1

You needed an intelligence update to know that?
Not only is there a river, but most of that front has at least 200 meters of open ground that has to be crossed to even get to the Ukrainian front line.

Download Google Earth, it's free.

Vintage wrote:

art wrote:

UK intelligence update - Wagner likely to sustain further heavy losses in Bakmut as it reaches the barrier presented by the Bakhmukta river.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/16 ... 12/photo/1

You needed an intelligence update to know that?
Not only is there a river, but most of that front has at least 200 meters of open ground that has to be crossed to even get to the Ukrainian front line.

Download Google Earth, it's free.

Yes, I read that there was open ground either side of the river. I passed on the intelligence report since it is a non-Wagner source confirming what Wagner claimed..

Canada has announced a ban on imports of Russian aluminium and steel products, with the aim of denying Moscow revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.

The imports were worth almost C$250m (US$180m/£150m) in 2021, according to the latest government data.

Reuters reports the ban comes as a 200% tariff on Russian aluminium imports announced last month by the United States came into effect, and after the EU already blocked Russian steel products last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... n-defences

I am surprised that metal imports from Russia are continuing. Is there no alternative to Russia? I gather that there is not perhaps for titanium but as to steel and aluminium - why are imports still allowed?

art wrote:

UK intelligence update - Wagner likely to sustain further heavy losses in Bakmut as it reaches the barrier presented by the Bakhmukta river.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/16 ... 12/photo/1

PS I presume that crossing the river is not feasible so Russian efforts will concentrate on gaining land west of the town from north-west and south-west directions to encircle the town. Is that actually needed if Wagner can shell the road used to supply the UkAF from territory it currently occupies? Eventually the UkAF will run out of supplies or losses in shipping supplies in will become unacceptable.

The reports I read is they are focusing on the north and north-west side of the town, and perhaps not focusing enough on the south and southwest. Given how much their forces have pushed forward, they are vulnerable to counter-attack.

Vintage wrote:

I say Russia has already lost.
They just don't know what to do next.

Indeed, their most famous propagandists are saying exactly that: we've lost so what next?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHnNjHcUnQ

Revelation wrote:

Vintage wrote:

I say Russia has already lost.
They just don't know what to do next.

Indeed, their most famous propagandists are saying exactly that: we've lost so what next?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHnNjHcUnQ

Yes, I looked at that video earlier - and have seen a few more of the same 'show'.

I think that nearly all agree that Russia set out to topple the Ukrainian government in a few days or weeks. That failed. It is beyond question that no pro-Russian puppet government replaced the Feb 23 2022 Ukrainian government. Even the most ardent Russian nationalists do not claim that the government was overthrown.

What is Russia going to do next? Try to occupy/liberate the rest of Donbas ie liberate the two oblasts that chose to return to the bosom of mother Russia seems like a possible, attainable goal. If that can be done Putin can sell the idea to his people that Russia has achieved much with his special operation, can't he?

It seems to me that Russia needs do very little next except hang on to as much territory it has taken as is possible in order to negotiate a settlement that Ukraine cannot refuse if the west loses interest in actively supporting Ukraine. I could see the west pressurising Ukraine to accept the loss of the Donbas and Crimea in order to end the war.

But who knows, perhaps Ukraine will have the means to change the course of the war with a successful spring offensive.

That’s always been the elephant in the room - the pro Russian posters. Evidently they are gearing up again.

Hopefully the tanks arriving and other weapons will bring about quicker change.

Interesting to look at how many senior people the Russians have lost and how a major superpower is struggling against someone who can hardly defend themselves.

This is a warning to other countries, get yourselves nuke weapons to avoid being invaded.

Revelation wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

The MiG-17 monument prominently visible along the highway leading to Bakhmut from the west has been destroyed.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/10/7392844/

I can half imagine Russian propagandist's claiming Ukraine is so desperate that now they're even losing 1950's era fighters.

Kinda weird. Usually Russians are hyper-sensitive about WW2 monuments, now they've gone and blown this one up.

Not related directly to the Ukraine war, but I wonder how much longer the Soviet era monuments in Berlin, Vienna etc will remain standing…

There are things still happening in the South, though not of curse with the intensity of elsewhere;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DfGhGjCW3I

This is almost farcical;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH67T27AwXU

hh65man wrote:

Not related directly to the Ukraine war, but I wonder how much longer the Soviet era monuments in Berlin, Vienna etc will remain standing…

Such monuments are part of a culture that glorifies war.

Russia in particular seems to spend a large part of its emotional bandwidth glorifying WWII military personnel.

IMO this is largely to take attention away from the fact that Stalin chose to be Hitler's partner from 1939 to 1942.

Better to focus on the eventual recovery from the invasion rather than the utter gullibility and total lack of preparation before the invasion.

I have no problem with all such monuments going away, both East and West.

I'd make exceptions for monuments to military men who went on to become successful peacetime political leaders shown in their peacetime garb, but that's about it.

According to information published on the Russian social network VK on March 10, 2023, citing Pakistani media reports, Pakistan plans to transfer 44 T-80UD main battle tanks to Ukraine in exchange for financial assistance from Western countries.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... tance.html

Pakistan is broke. I wonder how many of these tanks Pakistan could supply to Ukraine.

PS According to the linked article Pakistan has about 2,500 MBT's including 315 T-80UD's.

art wrote:

According to information published on the Russian social network VK on March 10, 2023, citing Pakistani media reports, Pakistan plans to transfer 44 T-80UD main battle tanks to Ukraine in exchange for financial assistance from Western countries.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... tance.html

Pakistan is broke. I wonder how many of these tanks Pakistan could supply to Ukraine.

PS According to the linked article Pakistan has about 2,500 MBT's including 315 T-80UD's.

Pakistan has been broke for a long time, that has not prevented them from building a capable military with nuclear weapons.

par13del wrote:

art wrote:

According to information published on the Russian social network VK on March 10, 2023, citing Pakistani media reports, Pakistan plans to transfer 44 T-80UD main battle tanks to Ukraine in exchange for financial assistance from Western countries.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... tance.html

Pakistan is broke. I wonder how many of these tanks Pakistan could supply to Ukraine.

PS According to the linked article Pakistan has about 2,500 MBT's including 315 T-80UD's.

Pakistan has been broke for a long time, that has not prevented them from building a capable military with nuclear weapons.

10 February

Eleventh-hour negotiations between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have failed to unlock $1.1bn in crucial funds aimed at preventing the country from going bankrupt.

A deepening economic crisis has all but emptied Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves, leaving it barely enough dollars to cover a month of imports and it is struggling to service sky-high levels of foreign debt.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64449037

Perhaps the IMF's involvement with a Pakistan request for funds could 'encourage' Pakistan to repatriate some of its Ukrainian-made tanks .

Moldovan police said Sunday they had arrested members of a network "orchestrated by Moscow" in a bid to destabilize the small ex-Soviet nation as an anti-government protest kicked off.

After searches on Saturday night, 25 men were questioned and seven of them detained, police chief Viorel Cernauteanu told media.

An agent managed to infiltrate the group led by a Moldovan-Russian, he said, adding that the prosecution had recorded 10 hours of video and audio.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/ ... ice-a80456

Is Russia trying to destabilise Moldova? If yes, why? Does Russia have long term designs on absorbing Moldova?

Meanwhile, in Old Rus:

Russia’s mounting casualties are reflected in a loss of government control over the country’s information sphere, ISW said. The think tank said that Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed “infighting in the Kremlin inner circle” and that the Kremlin has effectively ceded control over the country’s information space, with Putin unable to readily regain control.

The ISW sees Zakharova’s comments, made at a forum on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow, as “noteworthy” and in line with the think tank’s long standing assessments about the “deteriorating Kremlin regime and information space control dynamics.”

And:

Russia’s advance seems to have stalled in Moscow’s campaign to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, a leading think tank said in an assessment of the longest ground battle of the war.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said there were no confirmed advances by Russian forces in Bakhmut. Russian forces and units from the Kremlin-controlled paramilitary Wagner Group continued to launch ground attacks in the city, but there was no evidence that they were able to make any progress, ISW said late Saturday.

Ref: https://apnews.com/article/russia-advan ... e7e14795f8

I'm not sure if the frog is boiling yet, but the water seems to be getting hotter and hotter each day. Conscription of 300k for the winter offensive has all been for naught. Heavy losses without gains in Bakhmut and Vuhledar, with entire units being wiped out. No indication that future conscription would produce different results. Clearly afraid to conscript from more wealthy and vocal parts of the population. Artillery, drone and partisan attacks on targets within Russia. Overt infighting between Wagner and MoD. Attacks on civilian infrastructure using banned weapons that continue to reinforce how immoral the invader is. Ukrainians training on Western main battle tanks in order to mount a summer offensive. Advanced Western systems continuously being deployed. More and more propagandists falling out of line. Unrest in federated states. Let's hope this trend line continues!

art wrote:

Is Russia trying to destabilise Moldova? If yes, why? Does Russia have long term designs on absorbing Moldova?

They are trying to destabilize Moldova? They have their hands full.

To me it looks like the pupet government of the enclave is feeling vulnerable because the Russians are preoccupied.

Post war the enclave will be as isolated as ever and Russia will not have the power to maintain power there.

There will be chaos, there, in Georgia, and maybe even in Russia itself.

It may be everyone for themselves in the old Russian sphere.

bt

Highlighting Russia's immorality:

Fully 98% of Russian long range precision strike munitions deliberately target Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine's Interior Minister Klymenko reports that RU conducted 40,500 fire missions since Feb. Over 152K residential buildings have been destroyed.

Ref: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status ... 2787412992

These are the same people who repeatedly dropped barrel bombs on Syrian civilians.

bikerthai wrote:

There will be chaos, there, in Georgia, and maybe even in Russia itself.

Recent article supports break-away tendencies inside Russia itself:

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s delusional dreams of resurrecting the Soviet Union could actually be going quite the opposite direction with the majority of inhabitants of the Federation’s five regions supporting the idea of breaking away and proclaiming independence, as shown by a referendum cited by TVP.INFO news website.

The regions demonstrating secessionist tendencies are Ingria, Ural, Syberia, Kuban, and the Kaliningrad oblasts. The data proving such tendencies were collected via the “National Online Referendum on the Self-Governance of the Russian Federation’s Republics” carried out between February 16 and 28. It was organised by activists living in the concerned territories.

According to the survey, 72.1 percent of respondees in the Kaliningrad oblast want to break away from the Russian Federation. In Ingria, 66.2 percent of respondees wanted their oblast to gain independence. In Ural, the percentage amounted to 68.2 percent, in Syberia to 63.9 percent, and in the Kuban oblast to 55.7 percent.

Ref: https://tvpworld.com/68304716/five-regi ... ndum-shows

Again I find it interesting that things Putin did with the goal of building the RF is actually causing people to want to leave the RF.

Kaliningrad is hugely symbolic, it's former German territory Russia seized as a prize after WW2. It's also the ice-free Baltic port Russia has wanted since the days of the tzars. Losing that would be a massive blow. Losing Siberia and the Urals would lose the major oil and gas fields that produce so much income for the RF.

It's really hard for me to see how he can get himself out of the jam he's created for himself. Everywhere one looks, there is nothing but trouble for him.

Revelation wrote:

Highlighting Russia's immorality:

Fully 98% of Russian long range precision strike munitions deliberately target Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine's Interior Minister Klymenko reports that RU conducted 40,500 fire missions since Feb. Over 152K residential buildings have been destroyed.

Ref: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status ... 2787412992

These are the same people who repeatedly dropped barrel bombs on Syrian civilians.

Ahh...we can recall those who stated it was never proven that Russia was the one doing the barrel bombs or the chemical strikes, alas, just because they do something now is not proof that they did then, so supporters will continue to be supporters or detractors.

This week's Perun deep dive is about the Economic War, in terms of energy, politics and the production issues on both sides;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmO1kfCr_II

As always, a lot presented in accessible ways, with multiple sources (check all the links he provides), with some eye popping data.
Art, I think this one will answer many of your questions about the economics and sanctions issies.

I certainly was surprised by polling, with the usual caveats, which seems to indicate 27% of Americans, 30% of Dutch and 33% of British respondents favour sending their forces in directly.
Clearly major 'would start WW3' issues with that, so not advocating it, though if Russia did something that breached article 5, that is a base that would expand, a lot.

(Maybe the Dutch is partly about MH17, as for the UK, well a few years ago, even with the Army shrinking, recruiting became difficult still, some of it was blamed on handing it over to the usual shitty outsourcing company who screw up, get more contracts, donate to the Tories, however another factor was also found, the ending of major combat operations in Afghanistan .

Doesn't chime with the depressing Union Jack decked coffins that came home all too often, so maybe with the atrocities shown in Ukraine, the old fashioned conventional nature of the war, the clear moral clarity, some want to see 'our boys' (and girls) stomp the Russians.

A look at the year long Russian campaign against Vuhledar, which last month saw large scale Russian losses and the same old mistakes;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwuRpYw7vyw

A Ukrainian Tank Commander on what the Western MBT's will bring;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA0dxjt2yew

A Buk SAM gets the most direct form of SEAD;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncBqW2UTgdo

A bad day for a TOS system;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54K4bEoay-M

Revelation wrote:

[
Kaliningrad is hugely symbolic, it's former German territory Russia seized as a prize after WW2. It's also the ice-free Baltic port Russia has wanted since the days of the tzars. Losing that would be a massive blow.

Kaliningrad is more than symbolic, it's the home of the Russian Baltic Fleet. When I was in St Petersburg in 2012, the old base at Kronstadt was a shambles, just half sunk hulls and derelict shore installations. If they lost Kaliningrad, they might as well disband the Baltic fleet. Hey, from a Western point of view, that would be kinda nice...

Putin's shrinking local sphere of influence;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... iet-allies

Ukrainian solider shot after capture identified;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... -88eSMHvlF

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces had suffered more than 1,100 deaths in the past few days, with many more seriously injured.

Russia said it had killed more than 220 Ukrainian service members over the past 24 hours.

The BBC is unable to verify the numbers given by either side.

Analysts say Bakhmut has little strategic value...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64935449

From a humanitarian point of view what is happening in Bakhmut is insane. Russia is losing thousands of lives and Ukraine losing many to no useful strategic end. This reminds me of the useless, tragic slaughter of thousands in WWI.

johns624 wrote:

So you think it's okay to leave up statues and street names put up by a country that invaded you?

Depends. The works of artistic and scientific greats transcend nationality. For example, should all statues of Dostoyevsky in Ukraine be removed? All streets named after Russian composers be renamed? If there are any streets in Ukraine named after the first man in space should they be renamed?

Speaking of such things, Ukraine is considering officially renaming Russia to Moscovy, and can even make the claim that they are more entitled to use the word Rus on themselves rather than their enemy is.

• There was never a Duchy of Moscow or anything of Moscow, except as a Mongol vassal state until 1480.
• Kyiv stood for hundreds of years by the time Mongols sacked it, and was the center of Rus, now reffered to as "Kievan". There was no other Rus than Kievan, though.
• Again: by the time of the Mongol invasion, the Duchy of Moscow didn't exist and was not a part of Rus.
• Muscovites started calling themselves "Russians" in the 15th century, i.e. many centuries after Rus existed elsewhere, appropriating "Rus" from the people they are attacking - for the umpteenth time - today.

Why does this matter? The Moscovites are obsessed with a selective view of history that forms the basis of their ideology:

Why this is important: before the 2022 invasion, Putin has written a long - and historically flawed - editorial, in which he has justified the upcoming invasion by claims that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, starting their common history in Kievan Rus and somehow separating in a historical "mistake". This is a lie; we have the historical facts above. However, the fact that the country with the capital in Moscow calls itself Russia, claiming descent from the Kievan Rus, makes this lie easier to propagate.

It might seem that it's silly to care about this kind of symbolism. But the likes of Putin care, as do their followers - and they start wars over it.

Correcting the name is a step towards re-establishing historical truth, rewriting which is the foundation on which Moscovia's imperial ambitions lie.

Ref: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... nsidering/

Some of the more well-known (alleged) Russians are heavily triggered by all of this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-react ... 00590.html

The fact that they are so upset highlights the fact that Russian leaders in the defense and foreign ministries are having a hard time justifying the war these days:

Ashmanov suggested that the Kremlin create a Stalin-era information bureau that would control the war narrative and paint a unified picture of the invasion, Business Gazeta reported. But Zakharova shut down Ashmanov's proposal, saying that the Russian government doesn't currently have a unified stance on how they should talk about the Ukraine war.

"I've said that we do not have a single voice of the state," said Zakharova.

Zakharova added that the foreign ministry — which she speaks for — isn't authorized to talk about events on the ground in the war. She also admitted that Russia's defense ministry "either cannot or does not" want to discuss the conflict, per Business Gazeta.

And:

"Zakharova's statement is noteworthy and supports several of ISW's longstanding assessments about deteriorating Kremlin regime and information space control dynamics," the think-tank wrote on Saturday.

"It is unclear why Zakharova — a seasoned senior spokesperson — would have openly acknowledged these problems in a public setting," it added.

It said Zakharova's public statements further show that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has given up control of the Russian information space to "a variety of quasi-independent actors." Russian military bloggers who support the invasion have been increasingly critical of the Kremlin for its military failures.

Ref: https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-elites-f ... 37194.html

Putin's ideology is not standing the test of time. It is not standing up to the reality that they have not been able to impose their will on Ukraine and they have not been able to break the will of Ukraine or its supporters. It will only be worse for them when the upcoming offensive shows Ukraine can impose their will on Moscow's military. Hopefully the invaders will all go home soon and find a new leader for themselves.

The French former-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, General Michel Yakovleff says:

NATO needs to prepare for the collapse of Russia.

Yakovleff says the collapse of Russia is inevitable and will be much bloodier than the collapse of the USSR.

Ref: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 0744430593

Revelation wrote:

Putin's ideology is not standing the test of time. It is not standing up to the reality that they have not been able to impose their will on Ukraine and they have not been able to break the will of Ukraine or its supporters. It will only be worse for them when the upcoming offensive shows Ukraine can impose their will on Moscow's military. Hopefully the invaders will all go home soon and find a new leader for themselves.

To me the most likely way to get the Russians to go home and vacate the territories they have taken since February 24 is for the Ukrainians (a) to foil any Russian spring offensive (b) to launch a decisively successful offensive themselves. It remains to be seen whether the west has provided sufficient weaponry for the Ukrainians to achieve (b).

Revelation wrote:

Putin's ideology is not standing the test of time. It is not standing up to the reality that they have not been able to impose their will on Ukraine and they have not been able to break the will of Ukraine or its supporters. It will only be worse for them when the upcoming offensive shows Ukraine can impose their will on Moscow's military. Hopefully the invaders will all go home soon and find a new leader for themselves.

To me the most likely way to get the Russians to go home and vacate the territories they have taken since February 24 is for the Ukrainians (a) to foil any Russian spring offensive (b) to launch a decisively successful offensive themselves. It remains to be seen whether the west has provided sufficient weaponry for the Ukrainians to achieve (b).

Revelation wrote:

The French former-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, General Michel Yakovleff says:

NATO needs to prepare for the collapse of Russia.

Yakovleff says the collapse of Russia is inevitable and will be much bloodier than the collapse of the USSR.

Ref: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 0744430593

I would be delighted if he were right (especially for Ukraine) but the tweet gives no info to support his view.

It is said Moscow lost 15,000 men in Afghanistan in ten years, and now they've lost >4x that in one year in Ukraine.

Nearly 1,200 Russian soldiers were recently killed in a single day around Bakhmut, according to Mark Milley, America’s top general, in an interview with Politico, a news website. “That’s Iwo Jima,” he reflected, referring to a brutal 36-day Pacific battle during the second world war. “That’s Shiloh”—a battle in the American civil war.

This seems to me to be utterly unsustainable. This was just Bakhmut. At the same time, Vuhledar was also causing massive attrition. How long with RF citizens continue to put up with this?

Source: How many Russians have been killed in Ukraine?

art wrote:

Depends. The works of artistic and scientific greats transcend nationality. For example, should all statues of Dostoyevsky in Ukraine be removed? All streets named after Russian composers be renamed? If there are any streets in Ukraine named after the first man in space should they be renamed?

In the US it's a work in progress.

Where I lived we renamed a municipal from a slave owner to a civil right activist both named King.

But we also brought over a statue of Lenin when the Iron Curtain collapsed. That statue gets decorated every now and then, specially when spring arrives.

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms ... lnspr=W10=

Nation wide military bases named after Confederate Generals are being renamed as well.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

Nation wide military bases named after Confederate Generals are being renamed as well.

bt

Seems stupid to me. Military bases would be named after men who were seen as exceptional military men, I presume.

Tensions between the Russian ministry of defence and the rebel Wagner group have likely reached a “boiling point” in their rivalry over Bakhmut, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

The city in Donetsk Oblast, which has been the site of bloody contention for several weeks, serves as a symbolic stepping stone for Moscow to push forward in its invasion.

According to ISW analysis, the Russian MoD is trying to “deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken [Yevgeny] Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin”.

The analysis continued: “The Russian MoD is currently prioritising eliminating Wagner on the battlefields in Bakhmut, which is likely slowing down the rate of advance in the area.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 99451.html

art wrote:

Military bases would be named after men who were seen as exceptional military men, I presume.

They were, except those men represent secessionists. The US is still working out its issue, the January 6 riot is just another symptom.

Hopefully Ukraine will do better when it finally reconquer the Dombas.

bt

Partisan activity in the Khershon region;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a75xJgx4Z94

An interview with a Ukrainian who defined himself as a pacifist but signed up for the army after the invasion;
https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... -frontline

Revelation wrote:

It is said Moscow lost 15,000 men in Afghanistan in ten years, and now they've lost >4x that in one year in Ukraine.

Nearly 1,200 Russian soldiers were recently killed in a single day around Bakhmut, according to Mark Milley, America’s top general, in an interview with Politico, a news website. “That’s Iwo Jima,” he reflected, referring to a brutal 36-day Pacific battle during the second world war. “That’s Shiloh”—a battle in the American civil war.

This seems to me to be utterly unsustainable. This was just Bakhmut. At the same time, Vuhledar was also causing massive attrition. How long with RF citizens continue to put up with this?

Source: How many Russians have been killed in Ukraine?

I don't know what Russia will tolerate, but by the simplest analysis, they can sustain the current trend indefinitely. 600-700,000 Russian males reach adulthood each year.

The losses described in that article work out to a death toll equivalent to 10% of those reaching adulthood each year, and another 20-30% wounded, many of whom will experience lasting negative effects. There are soon going to be few people in Russia who aren't close to someone or multiple people who has died or been wounded. That has to affect their tolerance eventually.

Revelation wrote:

It is said Moscow lost 15,000 men in Afghanistan in ten years, and now they've lost >4x that in one year in Ukraine.

Nearly 1,200 Russian soldiers were recently killed in a single day around Bakhmut, according to Mark Milley, America’s top general, in an interview with Politico, a news website. “That’s Iwo Jima,” he reflected, referring to a brutal 36-day Pacific battle during the second world war. “That’s Shiloh”—a battle in the American civil war.

This seems to me to be utterly unsustainable. This was just Bakhmut. At the same time, Vuhledar was also causing massive attrition. How long with RF citizens continue to put up with this?

Source: How many Russians have been killed in Ukraine?

As long as the meat grinder is fed with minorities, the people in western Russia don’t care. You even may call it ethnic cleansing what’s happening, together with a “solution” for the deplorables which have been transferred from jail to Wagner.

iamlucky13 wrote:

I don't know what Russia will tolerate, but by the simplest analysis, they can sustain the current trend indefinitely. 600-700,000 Russian males reach adulthood each year.

Simplistic, indeed. We already have reports RU struggled to equip and train the 300k mobilization wave and their presence did not change the situation on the battlefield at all. It's pretty clear they can't train men at the rate you suggest nor can their economy sustain both the loss of productivity and the cost of training and feeding soldiers at that rate, nor can their hospitals treat the wounded at the current rate. They are losing officers at a great rate and have no way to replace them since they take decades to train. They have resorted to putting RU conscripts under DPRK/LPRK "leadership", and the results have been disastrous. Even their crematoria are unable to keep up at the current rate. We have many videos of soldiers filing complaints, and reports of RU Marines disobeying orders to attack at Vuhledar. This is not a "just add more men" situation.

marcelh wrote:

As long as the meat grinder is fed with minorities, the people in western Russia don’t care. You even may call it ethnic cleansing what’s happening, together with a “solution” for the deplorables which have been transferred from jail to Wagner.

To me this shows Putin knows drafting those western Russians en-mass will lead to his downfall. These men are largely unavailable to him, and he knows it. Wagner's ability to recruit prisoners had already dropped before Prigozhin's recent loss of power, and the supply of minorities is also not endless.

iamlucky13 wrote:

I don't know what Russia will tolerate, but by the simplest analysis, they can sustain the current trend indefinitely. 600-700,000 Russian males reach adulthood each year.

The losses described in that article work out to a death toll equivalent to 10% of those reaching adulthood each year, and another 20-30% wounded, many of whom will experience lasting negative effects. There are soon going to be few people in Russia who aren't close to someone or multiple people who has died or been wounded. That has to affect their tolerance eventually.

A chilling observation.

A senior but anonymous Wagner figure suggests a wide-scale offensive across the entire line is coming:

This is somewhat of a long post by RSOTM channel admin (anonymous senior figure in Wagner) essentially saying Ukraine is preparing for a strike, yes, but likely along the whole frontline, citing evidence about spotted movements of equipment and troops. Most interesting parts are highlighted in red.

He says evidence all points to the accumulation of UA forces not only in the south but also in the north, in the Kharkiv region. Meaning it may take a truly large-scale form.

Ref: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 0393792538

Revelation wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

I don't know what Russia will tolerate, but by the simplest analysis, they can sustain the current trend indefinitely. 600-700,000 Russian males reach adulthood each year.

Simplistic, indeed. We already have reports RU struggled to equip and train the 300k mobilization wave and their presence did not change the situation on the battlefield at all. It's pretty clear they can't train men at the rate you suggest nor can their economy sustain both the loss of productivity and the cost of training and feeding soldiers at that rate, nor can their hospitals treat the wounded at the current rate. They are losing officers at a great rate and have no way to replace them since they take decades to train. They have resorted to putting RU conscripts under DPRK/LPRK "leadership", and the results have been disastrous. Even their crematoria are unable to keep up at the current rate. We have many videos of soldiers filing complaints, and reports of RU Marines disobeying orders to attack at Vuhledar. This is not a "just add more men" situation.

marcelh wrote:

As long as the meat grinder is fed with minorities, the people in western Russia don’t care. You even may call it ethnic cleansing what’s happening, together with a “solution” for the deplorables which have been transferred from jail to Wagner.

To me this shows Putin knows drafting those western Russians en-mass will lead to his downfall. These men are largely unavailable to him, and he knows it. Wagner's ability to recruit prisoners had already dropped before Prigozhin's recent loss of power, and the supply of minorities is also not endless.

Apparently those ‘marines’ were largely conscripts to fill the very large gaps in those units, they lost many of their best troops earlier in the war.

Revelation wrote:

A senior but anonymous Wagner figure suggests a wide-scale offensive across the entire line is coming:

This is somewhat of a long post by RSOTM channel admin (anonymous senior figure in Wagner) essentially saying Ukraine is preparing for a strike, yes, but likely along the whole frontline, citing evidence about spotted movements of equipment and troops. Most interesting parts are highlighted in red.

He says evidence all points to the accumulation of UA forces not only in the south but also in the north, in the Kharkiv region. Meaning it may take a truly large-scale form.

Ref: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 0393792538

But as someone commented under this tweet, it's not very credible to imagine UA forces counter-attacking along the whole frontline. What this Wagner figure is showing is that he doesn't have a clear idea of what's coming. And this could precisely be the goal of Ukraine at the moment: to not give any clue about their actual plans.

But who knows. If this less than 30 minutes old tweet has any credibility, the Russians are preparing for the worst case scenario :

russians are preparing for emergency evacuation from temporarily occupied territories, — Viceremier-Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1635385414503780354

tomcat wrote:

But who knows. If this less than 30 minutes old tweet has any credibility, the Russians are preparing for the worst case scenario :

russians are preparing for emergency evacuation from temporarily occupied territories, — Viceremier-Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1635385414503780354

Sensible to have contingency plans, I would think. Ukrainians who were part of the administration of occupied areas (not talking of Donbas) would be in a very precarious position if those areas were taken by UA forces.

tomcat wrote:

Revelation wrote:

A senior but anonymous Wagner figure suggests a wide-scale offensive across the entire line is coming:

This is somewhat of a long post by RSOTM channel admin (anonymous senior figure in Wagner) essentially saying Ukraine is preparing for a strike, yes, but likely along the whole frontline, citing evidence about spotted movements of equipment and troops. Most interesting parts are highlighted in red.

He says evidence all points to the accumulation of UA forces not only in the south but also in the north, in the Kharkiv region. Meaning it may take a truly large-scale form.

Ref: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 0393792538

But as someone commented under this tweet, it's not very credible to imagine UA forces counter-attacking along the whole frontline. What this Wagner figure is showing is that he doesn't have a clear idea of what's coming. And this could precisely be the goal of Ukraine at the moment: to not give any clue about their actual plans.

But who knows. If this less than 30 minutes old tweet has any credibility, the Russians are preparing for the worst case scenario :

russians are preparing for emergency evacuation from temporarily occupied territories, — Viceremier-Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1635385414503780354

There have periodically been hysterical commentaries from various figures on Russia's side in the past. In one instance, they turned out to be correct: when Russia shifted troops from the east to Kherson west of the Dnipro in response to Ukraine's announced counteroffensive there, some raised alarm about the weak defenses in Kharkiv. Ukraine then successfully exploited that weakness.

I guess I could add the commentary of the appointed occupation head of Kherson, who fled the area weeks before Russia finally withdrew back across the Dnipro, publicly making dire comments about how critical Russia's situation was. Shortly afterwards, he died in a very bad traffic accident that seemed suspicious.

There are optimists, pessimists, and realists on both sides.

Numerous counterattacks around Zaporizhzhia predicted by pessimists on Russia's side have not materialized, nor has the invasion of Belgorod.

On a related note, many of the recent articles on Russia's issues around Vuhledar have referred to information from "a Ukrainian reserve officer." That is the following individual, and he posted today a message of cautious optimism that I would rate as a much more realistic:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/statu ... _J9LEtAAAA

Russians: We have poverty, but at least it's stable!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... ealous_of/

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is planning to seek the arrests of Russian officials for forcibly deporting children from Ukraine and targeting civilian infrastructure, a source told the Reuters news agency on Monday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/1 ... or-bakhmut

Abducting large numbers of children and transferring them to territory held by the aggressor is new to me and IMO an exceptionally serious crime. I hope that the ICC treat this as an offence of exceptional gravity in an attempt to stop this heinous war crime becoming prevalent.

Russia has been forced to start rationing shells on the front line and is using old munitions stock that are "unfit for use", according to British military intelligence.

"Extremely punitive shell-rationing" is in force on many parts of the front, the Ministry of Defence said.

"This has almost certainly been a key reason why no Russian formation has recently been able to generate operationally significant offensive action," they added.

"Russia has almost certainly already resorted to issuing old munitions stock which were previously categorised as unfit for use."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... sea-grain/

Sounds like Russia is using ammunition faster than it is making it or is not moving it to where it is needed fast enough.

The AFU have started releasing a few videos showing small unit assault with armor supporting infantry.

https://youtu.be/SJ1PhrZTCQo

It's the kind of operation that the Russian are not able to perform with their top down command structure.

In the video we Ukrainian using combined arms with armor/infantry supported by drone. I curious why there was no response by Russian artilery.

Maybe the attack was too small, or two quick for the Russian to respond with artilery. Or maybe the Russian artilery were effectively engaged with counter battery fire.

bt

art wrote:

or is not moving it to where it is needed fast enough.

This could be the effect of the Russian moving their supply hub further back because the Ukrainian are starting to deploy their home grown 150 km missiles.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

The AFU have started releasing a few videos showing small unit assault with armor supporting infantry.

https://youtu.be/SJ1PhrZTCQo

It's the kind of operation that the Russian are not able to perform with their top down command structure.

In the video we Ukrainian using combined arms with armor/infantry supported by drone. I curious why there was no response by Russian artilery.

Maybe the attack was too small, or two quick for the Russian to respond with artilery. Or maybe the Russian artilery were effectively engaged with counter battery fire.

bt

Who would have thought we’d see a T-72 and a Spartan working together? The FV103 is a mini APC of the CVR(T) range - Ukraine has been sent these with Ambulance, command and control versions, along with 30mm cannon recce Scimitars. Spartan in British service tended to carry specialized teams, such a troops carrying MILAN ATGW’s (to engage things like Soviet tanks!) or MANPADS like latterly Starstreak, armed with a 7.62mm machine gun though maybe Ukraine has stuck something like a 12.7mm one on them? Typically carrying 4 personnel in the back though they might squeeze more in. The other big advantage though not used here, the CVR(T) can handle wet and boggy ground, as the few sent to the Falklands showed to the surprise of some.

Res the Ukraine martially forces on the entire front: isn't it somewhat standard strategy when resources are available to do this, and should a breakthrough occur at any point, exploit it by being ready to expand the active front?