johns624 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

marcelh wrote:

Go talk with some people from outside the “Western democratic bubble” who are also outside Russia. Although I do not share their view, it’s telling a lot of them aren’t on our page.

Unfortunately, yes. Much of the world would rather let Ukraine disappear than risk an economic downturn as a result of this war. There were quite a few countries who abstained from voting on a recent UN resolution. Even on a non-political level, Russian propaganda has a significant audience outside of the west.

Like I said in another post, besides China and India, who don't like each other, how important are any of those other countries? It's like saying the US, UK, France, Germany and Netherlands are equal to Togo, Sudan, Bolivia, Laos and Armenia, because each side has 5 countries.

The Economist tried to rank Putin's friends, this is what they came up with:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... g_list_of/

Revelation wrote:

johns624 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

Unfortunately, yes. Much of the world would rather let Ukraine disappear than risk an economic downturn as a result of this war. There were quite a few countries who abstained from voting on a recent UN resolution. Even on a non-political level, Russian propaganda has a significant audience outside of the west.

Like I said in another post, besides China and India, who don't like each other, how important are any of those other countries? It's like saying the US, UK, France, Germany and Netherlands are equal to Togo, Sudan, Bolivia, Laos and Armenia, because each side has 5 countries.

The Economist tried to rank Putin's friends, this is what they came up with:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... g_list_of/

So if it's based on 11 measures does that mean 11 is the maximum score?

Also, how many of the countries that abstained/voted against the UN Resolution are democracies or semi-democratic? It's a lot easier to give one strongman a bribe to vote against something or abstain than a country where the will of the people matters. While a couple may be truly "nonaligned", the rest might pay for their votes in the future when they need help. As I've said before, India needs to be extremely careful. If push comes to shove, is Russia going to choose China over them or Pakistan over them?

GDB wrote:

the crew were Wagner, so why would Russian forces of the official kind risk a CSAR mission, perhaps?

Wagner or not, Russia/Wagner must be running low on experienced fighter pilots. A CSAR mission might be worth it.

petertenthije wrote:

GDB wrote:

the crew were Wagner, so why would Russian forces of the official kind risk a CSAR mission, perhaps?

Wagner or not, Russia/Wagner must be running low on experienced fighter pilots. A CSAR mission might be worth it.

Maybe in high level military politics, Wagner is considered the bigger threat than Ukraine?

scbriml wrote:

Footage of the drone collision has now been released.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-64974825

To try to keep somewhat in check the issue of secondary sources incrementally recompressing videos and gradually worsening the quality, here is the original release:

https://www.eucom.mil/article/42318/med ... ssian-su-2

BlueberryWheats wrote:

Maybe trying to do a turn and burn? Spray fuel all over the drone and set fire with the afterburner?

I'm not even sure if a Su27 is capable of that.

From a quick search, I haven't found any images of Su-27's doing a dump and burn, so I also don't know if it's possible. In this case, we also don't seem to see afterburners lit.

My guesses are the intended effect was to either cloud the camera lens or cause an engine out due to flooding with a rich mixture. Or perhaps just trying stunts because he figured he could get away with it around an unmanned aircraft.

Either way, they were obviously attempting an insanely close approach, especially for aircraft moving at different speeds, and with the overtaken aircraft at least momentarily out of sight of the overtaking aircraft.

mjgbtv wrote:

Revelation wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Like I said in another post, besides China and India, who don't like each other, how important are any of those other countries? It's like saying the US, UK, France, Germany and Netherlands are equal to Togo, Sudan, Bolivia, Laos and Armenia, because each side has 5 countries.

The Economist tried to rank Putin's friends, this is what they came up with:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineW ... g_list_of/

So if it's based on 11 measures does that mean 11 is the maximum score?

Indeed - Putin's bestie in Belarus scores top marks with 11/11. He must be so proud.

Poland will become the first country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine in the next few days, marking a significant upward step in military backing for Kyiv ahead of an expected counter-offensive.

The precedent, involving four Soviet-era MiG-29s as a first instalment, could lead to other Nato members providing warplanes, a longstanding Ukrainian request.

The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, made the announcement in Warsaw. He said the first planes being handed over were inherited from East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Duda said the MiGs were coming to the end of their working lives after 30 years, but were “still in working order”. The president said that more Polish MiGs were being serviced and repaired in preparation for being handed to Ukraine. In all, Poland has 28 MiG-29s which are to be replaced over the next few years by South Korean FA-50s and US F-35s.

Getting there in the end, it seems, after all the delays in supplying fighters imposed on Ukraine by its allies.

Slovakia, Finland and the Netherlands have all said they would consider supplying Ukraine with warplanes. The US and UK have so far refused to supply their F-16s and Typhoon combat aircraft respectively, on the grounds that they require too much training, ground support and long, smooth runways to be of any short-term help to Ukraine. However, the UK has offered to provide air cover for any eastern European country willing to supply Kyiv with Soviet-era jets.

Roll on Sweden offering to supply some of its Gripen C fighters and other European countries providing cover as needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ets-mig-29

Mig 29 is a step but old. At least it is known by Ukraine.

I think the Gripen would be a good step.

Cue outrage by Russia and its crowd of supporters.

The Oligarcs are getting their necks stepped on a bit more.
Wonder how much more of this they will take,

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 023-03-16/

In the clearest sign of rising demands on big business, the government - faced with a widening budget deficit - plans to raise around 300 billion roubles ($3.9 billion) in a windfall tax, though this will not affect oil, gas and coal firms.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the tax would be set at around 5% of excess profits, TASS news agency reported. The levy will come into force legally from 2024, but the finance ministry expects companies to make payments this year as well, he said.

And now for something a bit different, for mainly it seems Ukrainian personnel, a guide to the Spartan APC's from the UK, both MoD and other donations.
Done in the style of an auto review show, including the modification to replace the 7.62mm remotely served machine gun at the Commanders station, with an externally fired Ma Duce (seemingly from UK stocks), which they do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdz-qVcUCq0

It has subtitles, they work, sort of, you get the gist of it.
Likely used as they were in UK service, delivering specialist teams, such as a Javelin squad, sappers etc, including in wet, boggy conditions.

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

The AFU have started releasing a few videos showing small unit assault with armor supporting infantry.

https://youtu.be/SJ1PhrZTCQo

It's the kind of operation that the Russian are not able to perform with their top down command structure.

In the video we Ukrainian using combined arms with armor/infantry supported by drone. I curious why there was no response by Russian artilery.

Maybe the attack was too small, or two quick for the Russian to respond with artilery. Or maybe the Russian artilery were effectively engaged with counter battery fire.

Probably it's the shell shortage, no?

Russia is about to get its butt kicked big time, IMO.

All the signs point to a big offensive coming in the next few months, and there's no signs that Russia has the ability to stop it.

For instance, we see RU having to downgrade from T-72s to T-62s and running BMPs from the 50s, at the same time UA is training troops on modern western MBTs and IFVs.

We saw RU try to use its main superiority, its higher population, by drafting 300k soldiers, but showed they cannot equip and train them so they can only use them as cannon fodder.

It won't be easy since the offense is always 3x harder than the defense, but still, IMO, Russia is about to go down big time.

RU is severely downgraded in manpower, equipment and supply but Ukraine isn't doing much better at least in terms of manpower and supply if this report is representative of the overall state of the UA forces. Hopefully, UA will have enough potential to perform more than just a couple of breakthroughs in its upcoming counter-offensive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

It seems the FSB building in Rostov has burnt down.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ine-russia

Interestingly they are saying an electrical short-circuit caused it - so soon after it happened.
Also considering it partially collapsed, how could you conclude this fast.

Somebody smoking in the wrong place again, perhaps?

A top up donation for Ukraine, to add to the ones already pledged;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxcGWd6R ... odw7mIxjxX
(14 are also going soon to the British Army, to partly make up for the 32 AS-90's for Ukraine, the rest being topped up from storage. Some advantages, longer range, rapid fire and more easy to deploy, both to and on the battlefield).

A report from Bakhmut;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fvKIsMywoY

Russia has committed a wide-range of war crimes in Ukraine including wilful killings, systematic torture and the deportation of children, according to a report from a UN-backed inquiry published today.

Russian forces have carried out “indiscriminate and disproportionate” attacks on Ukraine, resorted to torture, killed civilians outside of combat and failed to take measures to safeguard the Ukrainian population, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, a UN-mandated investigative body, said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... e-wreckage

I suppose that this investigation implemented by the UN will result in charges being brought against some people in the Russian armed forces. I think that neither Russia nor the US recognizes the ICC, so nobody charged will be attending the court unless they were captured and held in custody Those convicted in absentia will risk arrest if they go to countries recognizing the ICC, so conviction will affect them, won't it?

China’s Xi to visit Moscow in show of support for Putin

https://apnews.com/article/russia-china ... d82f5e8627

Xi needs to pick up that US drone from Putin, to reverse engineer it...

DIRECTFLT wrote:

China’s Xi to visit Moscow in show of support for Putin

https://apnews.com/article/russia-china ... d82f5e8627

From the article:

China’s refusal to condemn Russia while denouncing Western sanctions and accusing NATO and the United States of provoking Putin’s military action has irked Washington as it competes with Beijing for influence.

I think that Xi in China and Modi in India take the view that they will decide what their foreign policy is and they will retain relations with whatever country they choose, regardless of what the US, NATO, EU or whoever wants.

art wrote:

[ think that Xi in China and Modi in India take the view that they will decide what their foreign policy is and they will retain relations with whatever country they choose, regardless of what the US, NATO, EU or whoever wants.

That's correct, and China can get away with it. India, OTOH, may find itself without friends if they get into a "scuffle" with China. You know whose side Russia would take.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister on nations that did not help, will be remembered;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQLoYCAP7_o

With Modi in India, well he clamps down on the press, has a support base with extreme Hindu nationalists, facists really of the MHGA, because they believe they invented everything.
Plus in 1992 in the region he governed he sat while mass sectarian murder was carried out.

To Bakhmut;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPmR4m4Scv8

More bad tank days;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIMzCgo3lp8

And a latest shipment;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... Oyinw2FO2J

If you are wondering what the MARS II MLRS is in the above link, the pic is correct, the German designation for;
https://www.kmweg.com/systems-products/ ... ii-mlrs-e/

Another day, another RU war crime:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1636662135320203266

Arrest warrent issued for Vladimir Putin.
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation- ... -putin-and

ICC issues arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes:

The international criminal court in The Hague has issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and his children’s rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, for the “unlawful deportation” of Ukrainian children.

The court’s pre-trial judges assessed there were “reasonable grounds to believe that each suspect bears responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population and that of unlawful transfer of population from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, in prejudice of Ukrainian children”.

Ref: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... war-crimes

EDIT: didn't see the previous post before this one, but will leave this one up for additional context.

AMSTERDAM, March 17 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Friday against Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of being responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ic ... 023-03-17/

Any more arrest warrants issued? I am sure that others must be under suspicion of committing this war crime, too. Putin cannot be the only person responsible, surely.

EDIT: didn't see the previous post before this one, but will leave this one up.

art wrote:

AMSTERDAM, March 17 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Friday against Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of being responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ic ... 023-03-17/

Any more arrest warrants issued? I am sure that others must be under suspicion of committing this war crime, too. Putin cannot be the only person responsible, surely.

You seem stressed that only Putin is being charged.

In any case, as above, children’s rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova is also subject to arrest.

And surely, Putin could make such a decision on his own, just like he decided to invade Ukraine on his own or at best with a small circle of advisors.

johns624 wrote:

art wrote:

[ think that Xi in China and Modi in India take the view that they will decide what their foreign policy is and they will retain relations with whatever country they choose, regardless of what the US, NATO, EU or whoever wants.

That's correct, and China can get away with it. India, OTOH, may find itself without friends if they get into a "scuffle" with China. You know whose side Russia would take.

It isn’t about friends, but about interests. Europe and the USA would choose side in a blink of an eye when it suits their interest. This is about geopolitics and has nothing to do with friendship.

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

AMSTERDAM, March 17 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Friday against Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of being responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ic ... 023-03-17/

Any more arrest warrants issued? I am sure that others must be under suspicion of committing this war crime, too. Putin cannot be the only person responsible, surely.

You seem stressed that only Putin is being charged.

In any case, as above, children’s rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova is also subject to arrest.

And surely, Putin could make such a decision on his own, just like he decided to invade Ukraine on his own or at best with a small circle of advisors.

Maybe Xi Jinping will arrest hime next week?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ch ... r-AA18JZDW

Seriously , I am starting to wonder if China wants Russia out of Ukraine in order to preserve it's growning ambitions and may be willing to offer Russia a lucrative way out.

The twitter account Darth Putin says:

My Facebook feed is offering me holiday deals to The Hague....

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3536992263

Internet commenters are quite generous to Putin, offering to pay his airfare, pointing out how nice it is in The Hague in the spring time, providing him with the address, etc.

Stugna-P at work;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkoTyIEKW0U

The graves found where this happened refutes this absurd but not unexpected sentence;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... il-frolkin

tomcat wrote:

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

The AFU have started releasing a few videos showing small unit assault with armor supporting infantry.

https://youtu.be/SJ1PhrZTCQo

It's the kind of operation that the Russian are not able to perform with their top down command structure.

In the video we Ukrainian using combined arms with armor/infantry supported by drone. I curious why there was no response by Russian artilery.

Maybe the attack was too small, or two quick for the Russian to respond with artilery. Or maybe the Russian artilery were effectively engaged with counter battery fire.

Probably it's the shell shortage, no?

Russia is about to get its butt kicked big time, IMO.

All the signs point to a big offensive coming in the next few months, and there's no signs that Russia has the ability to stop it.

For instance, we see RU having to downgrade from T-72s to T-62s and running BMPs from the 50s, at the same time UA is training troops on modern western MBTs and IFVs.

We saw RU try to use its main superiority, its higher population, by drafting 300k soldiers, but showed they cannot equip and train them so they can only use them as cannon fodder.

It won't be easy since the offense is always 3x harder than the defense, but still, IMO, Russia is about to go down big time.

RU is severely downgraded in manpower, equipment and supply but Ukraine isn't doing much better at least in terms of manpower and supply if this report is representative of the overall state of the UA forces. Hopefully, UA will have enough potential to perform more than just a couple of breakthroughs in its upcoming counter-offensive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

From the article:

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

That is a Ukrainian commander speaking.

I think there is a lack of realism in the west. I see constant media reports and video showing Ukrainian successes and Russian losses. I think those give a misleading impression. Since being attacked Ukraine has constantly asked for support from the west, support that has too often been withheld. Ukraine has suffered heavy losses in personnel and territory. However, defending territory is not as costly in lives as attacking to take it back and that is what the lack of outside support has condemned Ukraine to having to do - retake a lot of territory it might have been able to hold with better help from its reluctant allies.

I hope the Ukrainian armed forces have not suffered such great losses of trained personnel that their ability to mount a successful offensive has been compromised.

art wrote:

tomcat wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Probably it's the shell shortage, no?

Russia is about to get its butt kicked big time, IMO.

All the signs point to a big offensive coming in the next few months, and there's no signs that Russia has the ability to stop it.

For instance, we see RU having to downgrade from T-72s to T-62s and running BMPs from the 50s, at the same time UA is training troops on modern western MBTs and IFVs.

We saw RU try to use its main superiority, its higher population, by drafting 300k soldiers, but showed they cannot equip and train them so they can only use them as cannon fodder.

It won't be easy since the offense is always 3x harder than the defense, but still, IMO, Russia is about to go down big time.

RU is severely downgraded in manpower, equipment and supply but Ukraine isn't doing much better at least in terms of manpower and supply if this report is representative of the overall state of the UA forces. Hopefully, UA will have enough potential to perform more than just a couple of breakthroughs in its upcoming counter-offensive.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

From the article:

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

That is a Ukrainian commander speaking.

I think there is a lack of realism in the west. I see constant media reports and video showing Ukrainian successes and Russian losses. I think those give a misleading impression. Since being attacked Ukraine has constantly asked for support from the west, support that has too often been withheld. Ukraine has suffered heavy losses in personnel and territory. However, defending territory is not as costly in lives as attacking to take it back and that is what the lack of outside support has condemned Ukraine to having to do - retake a lot of territory it might have been able to hold with better help from its reluctant allies.

I hope the Ukrainian armed forces have not suffered such great losses of trained personnel that their ability to mount a successful offensive has been compromised.

I just read in the Belgian press that this article generated a lot of reactions.

The most material one is related to this commander Kupol, who has actually been dismissed yesterday because of what he said in this interview:

Ukraine demoted commander who gave interview about ill-trained troops

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/16/ukraine-commander-demoted-interview-pessimism/

Other than that, this article has sparked debates in both Ukraine and Russia, leaving people wondering whether it was an honest report or if it was meant to deceive the Russians. This latter thesis has gained support in Russia. See for example the reaction of Andreï Medvedev, a Russian MP:
https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/13343

Google translated excerpt:

And the article in the Washington Post was written solely so that our 'analysts' and 'experts' (and politicians, of course) who have been accustomed since their youth to believe that only the truth is being told on the BBC, CNN or Voice of America, cease to perceive the threat of an offensive APU seriously.

On the Ukrainian sides, the information shared by Kupol has apparently generated a lot of negative reactions but now that he has been dismissed, many people disagree with this decision.

I guess the evolution on the battle field in the next few weeks will close these debates. My take is that even if what Kupol is saying is true, he is probably not in a position to make an overall assessment of the state of the Ukrainian army. But this is at least an invitation to refrain from overly optimistic predictions regarding the course of this war.

tomcat wrote:

My take is that even if what Kupol is saying is true, he is probably not in a position to make an overall assessment of the state of the Ukrainian army.

It'd like looking at the ocean through a paper roll.

I can see how some commanders feel that way.

More than one Ukrainian commenters brought up the practice of using untrained units to hold the line giving time for the newly formed units to organize and traine as large formations.

Seems like they are sacrificing frontline units (making them hold on as long as they can) in order to preserves the freshly train army for the up coming offensive

bt

tomcat wrote:

On the Ukrainian sides, the information shared by Kupol has apparently generated a lot of negative reactions but now that he has been dismissed, many people disagree with this decision.

I guess the evolution on the battle field in the next few weeks will close these debates. My take is that even if what Kupol is saying is true, he is probably not in a position to make an overall assessment of the state of the Ukrainian army. But this is at least an invitation to refrain from overly optimistic predictions regarding the course of this war.

He's not the only one raising concerns. I haven't shared many previous such comments here, because it is difficult to translate individual comments into an overall assessment, and because it's not popular, and often misinterpreted as more broad of a criticism than intended.

However, I have been seeing concerns about Ukraine's command and communications since very early on in the war, and have retrospectively noticed some of it going back before the war. Ukraine has been working hard on transforming their military since 2014, but it's difficult process, and some of the issues were, I would presume, not clear until the need for reform was demonstrated in larger scale combat than what occurred in 2014. It became more urgent, but not easier, to reform the way the armed forces of Ukraine function once the war started.

I recall one article from last spring or perhaps early summer describing major challenges coordinating artillery support with frontline needs, which I believe they have made major progress on since then. More recently, I think in part as the lines have become static, and allowed some time to evaluate the more stable situation without having to react to the latest major development, a variety of different inputs have arisen.

In Bakhmut, for example, I have encountered many comments questioning the decision to continue defending Bakhmut, and suggesting the casualty ratio is not as favorable to Ukraine as stated (and this is not based on Russian propaganda). Another article here discusses lack of operational flexibility driven by centralized decision making:

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation ... ary-expert

And this very long article from last month by a British Lt. colonel who was one of the military advisors to Ukraine after 2014 discusses a series of concerns that remain:

https://maidan.org.ua/en/2023/02/glen-g ... boundaries

A group of American defense analysts including Rob Lee and Michael Kofman, in case anyone wants to look into their background, recently returned from a visit to Ukraine and have hinted at some similar concerns, although I suspect they are under an agreement regarding what they may publish and when, as they have so far shared very little detail.

All of this and more are reasons why I have several times tried to temper high expectations for the upcoming months. I do still think Ukraine will launch a significant counteroffensive, and I have high hopes they will make significant gains this summer that put to shame what Russia has accomplished since withdrawing from western Kherson, but I'm hesitant to hope for as strategically important of an achievement as reaching the Sea of Azov, for example, and thereby dividing Russia's forces between the Donbas and Crimea.

Excerpts from the maidan.org.ua piece I linked to:

Despite the maxim of “we trust in the ZSU” this organisation cannot be perfect having grown and changed so dramatically in such a short time. If it is possible to improve things then there should be no reason to continue with policies and practices that add extra risks of death to troops, damage morale and may even have longer term adverse political consequences.

Possibly the biggest problem for the ZSU leadership is developing a new army culture. A culture of every life matters. Every day the army is filling up with more people with no previous military background.
....
Like the Finns in the winter war, they wish to be an “intelligent” force allowed to use their brains, different skills, self-motivation, and initiative and to be led intelligently not blindly ordered.

casinterest wrote:

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ic ... 023-03-17/

Any more arrest warrants issued? I am sure that others must be under suspicion of committing this war crime, too. Putin cannot be the only person responsible, surely.

You seem stressed that only Putin is being charged.

In any case, as above, children’s rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova is also subject to arrest.

And surely, Putin could make such a decision on his own, just like he decided to invade Ukraine on his own or at best with a small circle of advisors.

Maybe Xi Jinping will arrest hime next week?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ch ... r-AA18JZDW

Seriously , I am starting to wonder if China wants Russia out of Ukraine in order to preserve it's growning ambitions and may be willing to offer Russia a lucrative way out.

I think it's the exact opposite. China probably wants this proxy war to drag on as long as possible for 2 reasons:

1. Russia would be economically devastated the longer this war drags on and would be more susceptible to Chinese influence and control.

2. The West exhausting themselves supporting Ukraine with massive amounts of financial assistance could cause a backlash with voters that would make them more wary of responding the same way should hostilities break out in Taiwan. The Governor of Florida, who is the front runner for the Republican nomination, recently flat out said that he would curd aid toward Ukraine if he were in the White House.

Russia is already the lesser partner of China. What they want is Russia or better Putin to survive relatively undamaged. A collapse or even worse the crazy idea of a Western democracy next door is a nightmare for China.

YokoTsuno wrote:

Russia is already the lesser partner of China. What they want is Russia or better Putin to survive relatively undamaged. A collapse or even worse the crazy idea of a Western democracy next door is a nightmare for China.

There are people like Kamil Galeev that have explored this topic in great detail, but Putin has done such a thorough job chipping away at Russia's freedoms over the last 20 years and creating such a vast internal security apparatus, that the chance of a modern Russian revolution is close to zero. There's not going to be any collapse or color revolution that brings democracy to Russia. The last time that Russia had a real genuine democracy where anything was possible was approximately from January 1992 to October 1993 and ended when Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire upon the Russian parliament building, resorting to the time honored Russian tradition of using brute force to solve a problem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russ ... nal_crisis

Turkey ratifies Finland's NATO membership

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the announcement on Friday. However, Ankara is not moving to approve Sweden's membership.

...

Ankara's ratification will remove the main obstacle to Finland's membership in the Atlantic Alliance. Barely an hour after Erdogan's declaration, Hungary announced through Fidesz, Prime Minister Victor Orban's party, that the vote on ratifying Finnish membership would be held in the Hungarian parliament on March 27.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 806_4.html

Does Hungary now agree with Finland joining NATO, so it should go through soon? Sweden has no border with Russia so is not so menaced by Russia.

iamlucky13 wrote:

He's not the only one raising concerns. I haven't shared many previous such comments here, because it is difficult to translate individual comments into an overall assessment, and because it's not popular, and often misinterpreted as more broad of a criticism than intended.

I think this is a good thing. It is in the interest of Ukraine for their lower commanders to speak up. That way, if these are truly legitimate issues, they can be addressed.

Don't be like the Russian where bearers of bad news get a one way trip to retirement . . .

bt

This TY channel is suggesting probing attack for the Ukrainian offensive has begun.

https://youtu.be/MOSoJfrbud4

bt

Meanwhile, back in the alternative universe of the ultra-nationalists in Russia, an ex-member of parliament wants his country to go even further:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 2989566976

The hand-wringing posts are fine. We're all allowed to have our own opinions. Mine is that the strengths of the UAF far outweigh the flaws some are so ready to point out, and RU shows its truly evil nature time and time again.

My opinion is that it isn't clear what will happen with a spring offensive, nor the entire war either, yet I have zero influence on events. I could go there and fight, and would shortly end up in a body bag. I could donate my entire net worth, it wouldn't fund a fraction of a day of the fight. I'd love it if my government supported UA even more than it already does, but it is already supporting UA at an immense level. I'm not going to sit back and criticize those in the government since I trust those in charge have valid reasons for not supplying more. I will criticize politicians who think the right thing to do is to cut funding to UA, it's a very transparent attempt to further their own political aspirations at the expense of people who really deserve our support.

At the end of the day it is UA's fight, not mine. Their decisions over time led them to this exact place. I hope they defeat RU, but I'm fully prepared for them to not win, what they've been able to do so far is so far beyond expectations. Some times evil wins. Hopefully not this time, but it surely is in the realm of possibility.

bikerthai wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

He's not the only one raising concerns. I haven't shared many previous such comments here, because it is difficult to translate individual comments into an overall assessment, and because it's not popular, and often misinterpreted as more broad of a criticism than intended.

I think this is a good thing. It is in the interest of Ukraine for their lower commanders to speak up. That way, if these are truly legitimate issues, they can be addressed.

Don't be like the Russian where bearers of bad news get a one way trip to retirement . . .

bt

It does need to be done prudently and constructively. One challenge is concerns are generally supposed to go through the chain of command. But when the legacy chain of command is not prepared to deal with structural issues, then we get the type of situation we see where comments come out in the media, especially through those connected the military but no longer subject to it.

However, chain of command remains vitally important for a military to carry out its missions, and if the criticism gets out of hand, it can undermine the chain of command.

Demoting the officer who commented to the Washington Post seems like an over-reaction, especially since the comments I see were not really that critical, but it doesn't surprise me.

When Patten was sidelines for that famous slap, he was 'confined' to the UK on D-Day - preparing for a subsequent big offensive. It puzzled the Germans to a great degree. Things are not always as they seem.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

When Patten was sidelines for that famous slap, he was 'confined' to the UK on D-Day - preparing for a subsequent big offensive. It puzzled the Germans to a great degree. Things are not always as they seem.

Patton wasn't sidelined for just that slap, he was sidelined for actions that extended back to Africa, including his sacking of Terry Alan the commander of the 1st Infantry Division. And Patton had little to nothing to do with the landings in Normandy. He didn't take command of the seasoned divisions he inherited from 1st Army until almost two months after the invasion, and three days after Operation Cobra, which had shattered the German defenses in western France and left virtually nothing in front of Third Army for 100 miles to the east.

In case you were thinking sanctions and legal proceedings have no impact on RU:

"Russia is ready for the proposals of Western countries and Ukraine regarding the diplomatic settlement of the conflict, but it is possible to achieve a resolution of the conflict only by removing all sanctions and lawsuits in international bodies against Russia," said Ministry of Foreign affairs spokeswoman Zakharova

Ref: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 4526121987

Directly from the mouthpiece of the RU Ministry of Foreign Affairs, none the less...

Keep crying those tears, Ms. Zakharova.

Revelation wrote:

The hand-wringing posts are fine. We're all allowed to have our own opinions. Mine is that the strengths of the UAF far outweigh the flaws some are so ready to point out, and RU shows its truly evil nature time and time again.

My opinion is that it isn't clear what will happen with a spring offensive, nor the entire war either, yet I have zero influence on events. I could go there and fight, and would shortly end up in a body bag. I could donate my entire net worth, it wouldn't fund a fraction of a day of the fight. I'd love it if my government supported UA even more than it already does, but it is already supporting UA at an immense level. I'm not going to sit back and criticize those in the government since I trust those in charge have valid reasons for not supplying more. I will criticize politicians who think the right thing to do is to cut funding to UA, it's a very transparent attempt to further their own political aspirations at the expense of people who really deserve our support.

At the end of the day it is UA's fight, not mine. Their decisions over time led them to this exact place. I hope they defeat RU, but I'm fully prepared for them to not win, what they've been able to do so far is so far beyond expectations. Some times evil wins. Hopefully not this time, but it surely is in the realm of possibility.

Very well put! We are only observers here, not participants.

Revelation wrote:

In case you were thinking sanctions and legal proceedings have no impact on RU:

"Russia is ready for the proposals of Western countries and Ukraine regarding the diplomatic settlement of the conflict, but it is possible to achieve a resolution of the conflict only by removing all sanctions and lawsuits in international bodies against Russia," said Ministry of Foreign affairs spokeswoman Zakharova

Ref: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 4526121987

Directly from the mouthpiece of the RU Ministry of Foreign Affairs, none the less...

Keep crying those tears, Ms. Zakharova.

Ukraine demands the return of all territory lost to Russia since 1991. Russia is obliged to defend the sovereignty of all Russian territory. The territorial demands of the two warring countries are not negotiable and preclude a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

Accurate artillery;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFZ16aPxuoM

German mines were also a nightmare in WW2;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VLggkqd630
If as is likely that is what it was;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PARM_1_mine

Being bonked by a drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txLWpGwi-wQ
Not a great look for an AD system.

From Ukrainian TV, so not unbiased, however a study in contrasts between WW1 trench like systems and some equipment;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NlhkmTYdXY
I've seen in similar videos a position with a 1908 Maxim machine gun, only useful for what it was designed for, from a fixed, fortified preferably, position. Which it is.

And an update on supplies, be interesting to see the details of the latest Danish package as they have been punching their weight in support;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AYiWDnZwFA

johns624 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

The hand-wringing posts are fine. We're all allowed to have our own opinions. Mine is that the strengths of the UAF far outweigh the flaws some are so ready to point out, and RU shows its truly evil nature time and time again.

My opinion is that it isn't clear what will happen with a spring offensive, nor the entire war either, yet I have zero influence on events. I could go there and fight, and would shortly end up in a body bag. I could donate my entire net worth, it wouldn't fund a fraction of a day of the fight. I'd love it if my government supported UA even more than it already does, but it is already supporting UA at an immense level. I'm not going to sit back and criticize those in the government since I trust those in charge have valid reasons for not supplying more. I will criticize politicians who think the right thing to do is to cut funding to UA, it's a very transparent attempt to further their own political aspirations at the expense of people who really deserve our support.

At the end of the day it is UA's fight, not mine. Their decisions over time led them to this exact place. I hope they defeat RU, but I'm fully prepared for them to not win, what they've been able to do so far is so far beyond expectations. Some times evil wins. Hopefully not this time, but it surely is in the realm of possibility.

Very well put! We are only observers here, not participants.

Your government is - just like my government - actively supporting Ukraine, which makes us (passive) participants in this war against Russia. The USA being the largest supporter of Ukraine with military aid, Washington has definitely a say in how and hen this war will be brought to the negotiation table.

Whether or not 'Kupol' should have leaked information to the press, is the reaction healthy?

Valentin Shevchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military, accused Kupol of “disseminating false information”. “The losses announced in the unit of which he had command are significantly overestimated,” she told Ukrainian media.

Shortly after his demotion, Kupol quit the Ukrainian army.

Within hours of his reassignment to a training camp, dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, politicians and journalists had voiced their support for the battalion commander.

“One of the armed forces finest commanders has just been removed,” Yuriy Butusov, a well-known Ukrainian war correspondent, wrote on Facebook.

“Instead of analysing mistakes that will defeat the Russian army, honest comments are suppressed and those who make them are punished.”

The leak on casualty numbers will be deeply embarrassing for the Ukrainian military which has diligently built up a narrative of its outnumbered but highly motivated and well-trained army taking on hordes of Russian soldiers and convicts.

It also undermines confidence in its much-talked-up counteroffensive planned for spring.

The attritional nature of the war in Ukraine has killed and injured hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Both sides have admitted that they are running out of artillery shells and ammunition.

Ukraine and Russia guard their casualty numbers closely, believing that they could undermine morale, although military commanders still hint at the high death tolls at their evening briefings when they boast of killing hundreds of enemy soldiers.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... aid-price/

As far as I can follow things, the Ukrainian military chose to follow a policy of attrition in the Bakhmut area. It is not surprising that a lot of casualties result from such a policy. Attempts to give an impression that high casualties do not result from adopting a high casualties strategy seem pointless to me. I side with the commander on this - he identified some problems that needed to be addressed in the hope of prompting action, I think.

art wrote:

As far as I can follow things, the Ukrainian military chose to follow a policy of attrition in the Bakhmut area. It is not surprising that a lot of casualties result from such a policy. Attempts to give an impression that high casualties do not result from adopting a high casualties strategy seem pointless to me. I side with the commander on this - he identified some problems that needed to be addressed in the hope of prompting action, I think.

What you fail to acknowledge is the fact that the Ukrainians are going to have to fight these units and these solders somewhere anyway in the very near future.
The might as well do it here and now where the 5-8 to 1 kill ratio is baked in.