art wrote:

As far as I can follow things, the Ukrainian military chose to follow a policy of attrition in the Bakhmut area.

The Ukrainian did not "chose" the battle of attrition. It was forced upon them but by the Russian and Father Time. It takes time to train new soldiers. They chose Bakhmut to give them the time.

Consider what would the Russian do if they finally captured Bakhmut? Would they press their attack knowing the hills behind the city would be difficult to overcome?

Or would the dig in for defense and move the excess troop to reinforce sectors where the Ukrainian hope to initiate their offensive?

art wrote:

he identified some problems that needed to be addressed in the hope of prompting action, I think.

Finding the problem is only half the job. How to solve it maybe the more difficult issue. Who's to say the leadership did not already know the problem. They just do not have adequate means to solve it.

Many times where I work, the leadership will tell us when we bring up a problem: "OK you let us know there a problem. Come back again with a solution". If we could not come up with a solution, the problem would then be passed on to someone else to solve.

bt

Meanwhile, the German Federal Minister of Justice says Germany will have no choice but to arrest Putin should he enter German territory:

"I expect that the ICC will quickly turn to Interpol and the contracting states and ask them to ensure compliance," the minister said, adding that then Germany "will be forced to arrest Putin and hand him over to the ICC if he enters German territory."

Ref: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polyti ... untry.html

Same is true of all EU member states, same is true of 122 ICC member states. Russia is now officially being led by a fugitive.

Vintage wrote:

art wrote:

As far as I can follow things, the Ukrainian military chose to follow a policy of attrition in the Bakhmut area. It is not surprising that a lot of casualties result from such a policy. Attempts to give an impression that high casualties do not result from adopting a high casualties strategy seem pointless to me. I side with the commander on this - he identified some problems that needed to be addressed in the hope of prompting action, I think.

What you fail to acknowledge is the fact that the Ukrainians are going to have to fight these units and these solders somewhere anyway in the very near future.
The might as well do it here and now where the 5-8 to 1 kill ratio is baked in.

The commander was saying that there were issues that needed to be addressed in view of the attrition levels in his battalion and the capability of replacement troops. Untrained, under-armed troops will suffer greater losses and inflict fewer enemy losses than defenders in a normal war of attrition, won't they?

PS @bikerthai - did not read your earlier reply before posting this

art wrote:

Untrained, under-armed troops will suffer greater losses and inflict fewer enemy losses than defenders in a normal war of attrition, won't they?

This is so true. It is also a very difficult decision a commander have to make. Send so many soldier to death just to give a chance at victory.

bt

Dictators visit Mariupol:

1941:



Source: https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... l_once_we/

2023:



Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna75621

RU losses vs time:



Source: https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... nt_losses/

An increase in US aid for Ukraine is coming soon:

The United States is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine to be announced in the coming days, said White House National Security spokesman John Kirby on March 16.

Representatives from more than 50 countries participated in an online meeting of the 10th Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the “Ramstein format”, on March 15.

Following the meeting, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted that “Ramstein 10 inspires optimism.”

Source: https://news.yahoo.com/u-continue-provi ... 00056.html

Not the first time SU-27's have tried this technique on a drone;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKyrK0uDiQA

More accurate Ukrainian artillery;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVGEtuBB6_4&t=33s

Some specialist small arms supplies;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Rf3xIIpuzs

This week's Perun, on the Russian winter offensive, it's objectives, what has or has not been achieved;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw

Also not debunks but clarifies the 'shovel' story, should have been 'instead of grenades' not rifles, given the task set for them.

The United States has confirmed that rounds of Chinese ammunition have been used in battlefields in Ukraine and suspects they were fired by Russian forces, government sources said Friday.

Whether the ammunition was supplied by China remains unclear, the U.S. administration sources said, while adding Washington is poised to take action if it is verified Beijing made the shipments.

Amid a myriad of disagreements between the United States and China, officials have recently said Washington possesses intelligence indicating that Beijing is considering sending arms and ammunition to Russia.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... 1679125130

I don't know what to make of this. And Xi is off to see Putin next week...

art wrote:

The United States has confirmed that rounds of Chinese ammunition have been used in battlefields in Ukraine and suspects they were fired by Russian forces, government sources said Friday.

Whether the ammunition was supplied by China remains unclear, the U.S. administration sources said, while adding Washington is poised to take action if it is verified Beijing made the shipments.

Amid a myriad of disagreements between the United States and China, officials have recently said Washington possesses intelligence indicating that Beijing is considering sending arms and ammunition to Russia.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... 1679125130

I don't know what to make of this. And Xi is off to see Putin next week...

What I make of it is Chinese are excellent businessmen and great opportunists, and if we thought there'd be no Chinese ammo in use in this war we should question our thinking processes.

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

casinterest wrote:

Sure they are opportunists, but they are also welcoming some blow back for this. There would have to be more solid proof of supplying the Russians directly, but the blow back from Europe and NA on this would be something the Chinese would need to consider.

Yeah, but we all know that all sanctions are "leaky", and short of hard evidence of official cooperation in this area, it's just noise IMO.

I mean it's good to point out it's happening and issue some warnings that it is not an acceptable practice, but in the end it's not actionable, IMO.

Similar sanctions leaks are happening in many other cases, they are very hard to stop.

What are the odds that was a Putin body double? Hard to believe a guy who sits 20 feet away from anyone else is out pressing the flesh with civilians in a war zone.

Behind that vile tour little Vlad did, there are (rare) stories like this one;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... s-children

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

What do you do if threatening to blow stuff up hasn't gotten results? Well, threaten to blow up more stuff, obviously...

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

I think that Medvedev suffers from a severe form of terra patris mania (what I might call ultra patriotic mania) so I don't take him too seriously. When it comes to the ICC Putin arrest warrant, I think that countries recognizing the ICC would bend over backwards to avoid their police having to arrest him. I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

Newark727 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

What do you do if threatening to blow stuff up hasn't gotten results? Well, threaten to blow up more stuff, obviously...

I'd also look for the NATO escort of any Russian navy ship transiting the North Sea or English Channel to be more formal. No more OPVs. After every transit, NATO could post a news bulletin saying that the Russians failed again to strike The Hague.

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

I think that Medvedev suffers from a severe form of terra patris mania (what I might call ultra patriotic mania) so I don't take him too seriously. When it comes to the ICC Putin arrest warrant, I think that countries recognizing the ICC would bend over backwards to avoid their police having to arrest him. I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

I would say Kamil Galeev is describing Medvedevs behaviour quite well here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1624 ... 43362.html

I would also hope/expect any Russian ship that launches a missile on The Hague would end up at the bottom of the North Sea pretty fast.

johns624 wrote:

Newark727 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:


Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

What do you do if threatening to blow stuff up hasn't gotten results? Well, threaten to blow up more stuff, obviously...

I'd also look for the NATO escort of any Russian navy ship transiting the North Sea or English Channel to be more formal. No more OPVs. After every transit, NATO could post a news bulletin saying that the Russians failed again to strike The Hague.

The latest 'guest';
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british ... h-channel/

Ukraine, a village that changed hands numerous times;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdRaO9KGS8M

Assessment on Putin and Xi;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SFwKkobRoE

Revelation wrote:

In case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again:

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Quote from Medvedev: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

Ref: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394171/

Strange how he suggests in the same rant that the ICC is ineffective and easily ignored, then suggests sending a RU warship to blow it up. It's pretty clear he knows that the impact of having Putin subject to an ICC arrest warrant is quite large and quite humiliating.

I don't know exactly what the goal is, but Medvedev seems to have been assigned the role of Minister of Hyperbole. He has also been the most vocal high-ranking official spouting nuclear rhetoric, as far as I have seen (Example link).

For those not very familiar with him: He is a very long-time associate of Putin's, and was appointed by Putin when he became president to lead the state gas company Gazprom. When Putin reached term limits in 2008, Medvedev was endorsed by Putin as his preferred successor as president, resulting in an easy win. Putin is presumed to have remained extremely influential during Medvedev's presidency.

Since Russian term limits were for consecutive terms, not total terms, Medvedev then recommended Putin for president again in 2012. Afterwards, he was appointed by Putin as Prime Minister, resigned from that role in 2020 to facilitate other government reforms pushed by Putin, and was immediately appointed to the Russian security council. Although Medevdev has at times in the past seemed more friendly to the West than Putin, in retrospect, that seems like perhaps a planned public image to allow his presidency to point back to Putin as the leader really looking out for Russian interests

In short, Medvedev has a history of being a puppet for Putin.

So when Medvedev is saying shocking things to the media, my first assumption is Putin wants shocking things to be said, but has reasons not to say them himself.

At the present, it seems like his role is mainly to be a loose cannon to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about things Russia could in theory do, but in reality would worsen Russia's position. This not only leaves the west trying to figure out how crazy Russia actually is before we do anything (which is arguably one of Russia's propaganda successes), but it also ensures someone prominent is always calling for Russia to do something more extreme than Russia actually does, helping Putin look more moderate and prudent to the Russian public.

art wrote:

When it comes to the ICC Putin arrest warrant, I think that countries recognizing the ICC would bend over backwards to avoid their police having to arrest him. I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

The NL government absolutely would arrest him. The public outrage would be huge if they let such an opportunity pass. They would keep it quiet until he was locked up in The Hague, but once he was there an announcement would be made, and the government would be praised by almost everyone.

Polish Ambassador To France Says His Country Will Go To War With Russia If Ukraine Loses

https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe ... ine-loses/

Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Poland’s Ambassador to France, made the startling declaration that Poland would declare war on Russia should Ukraine lose the war. “If Ukraine fails to defend its independence,” the ambassador told French television, “we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict.”

ReverseFlow wrote:

I would also hope/expect any Russian ship that launches a missile on The Hague would end up at the bottom of the North Sea pretty fast.

I'm not expecting any of that to happen. It's just to remind the Russians that you called their bluff. They were in range of The Hague and did nothing. Just like the rest of their bluster.

iamlucky13 wrote:

In short, Medvedev has a history of being a puppet for Putin.

I think the "B word" defines him better than "puppet".

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Polish Ambassador To France Says His Country Will Go To War With Russia If Ukraine Loses

https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe ... ine-loses/

Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Poland’s Ambassador to France, made the startling declaration that Poland would declare war on Russia should Ukraine lose the war. “If Ukraine fails to defend its independence,” the ambassador told French television, “we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict.”

The source linked has inaccurately described the comments as a plan by a NATO member to declare war on Russia. Poland immediately denounced such interpretations as disingenuous.

The real meaning is concern that Russia may spread the conflict further if they prevail over Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/19/7394148/

Here is what Google Translate rendered from the clarifying statement:

STATEMENT
In connection with the comments on the interview given by Ambassador Rościszewski to the French LCI station on March 18 this year, we would like to point out that it is interpreted by
some media in isolation from the context in which it was delivered.

During the half-hour conversation with the editor, Ambassador Rościszewski argued about the need to support Ukraine by the allies. He also spoke about the threat that Russia poses to Europe and European values. Listening carefully to the entire conversation allows us to understand that there was no announcement of Poland's direct involvement in the conflict, but only a warning against the consequences of Ukraine's defeat - the possibility of Russia attacking or drawing into the war more Central European countries - the Baltic states and Poland . President Lech Kaczyński has already warned against this. Ambassador Rościszewski's statement is part of this analysis, and this is the sense in which the quoted fragment of the statement should be understood.

In other passages, the ambassador makes it clear that Poland is not at war, but is doing everything to help Ukraine defend itself in this conflict. Looking for a sensational statement that does not fit in with Poland's consistent actions taken for a year, aimed at helping Ukraine win this conflict, so that it does not come closer to Europe and Poland, should be considered in terms of
bad will.

The full interview is available on the LCI website (from 1:06:20 to 1:33:00):
https://www.tf1info.fr/replay-lci/video ... -du-samedi -18-mars-2251407.html

iamlucky13 wrote:

The real meaning is concern that Russia may spread the conflict further if they prevail over Ukraine.

And not for nothing, either. Remember those maps Lukashenko posed in front of showing a glorious reunification with Moldova?

Tors get targeted;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3XXaba0Mp4

Donation updates/deliveries;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... tgBp6YqJo2

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... jlOcTCzyBY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWhUSdtWePE

casinterest wrote:

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... 1679125130

I don't know what to make of this. And Xi is off to see Putin next week...

What I make of it is Chinese are excellent businessmen and great opportunists, and if we thought there'd be no Chinese ammo in use in this war we should question our thinking processes.

Sure they are opportunists, but they are also welcoming some blow back for this. There would have to be more solid proof of supplying the Russians directly, but the blow back from Europe and NA on this would be something the Chinese would need to consider.

...any worse than the blowback they got from covid and the entire world shutting down, heck they even controlled media releases discussing their potential involvement.
Methinks this is small compared to the covid debacle.

art wrote:

I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

“We” (the Dutch) have 196 reasons to arrest him (MH17), so I really don’t understand where your “bet” is based on (other than personal opinions).

Nice likely Partisan hit, might well make the next planned attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civil targets, somewhat downgraded;

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ukraine ... ed-crimea/

marcelh wrote:

art wrote:

I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

“We” (the Dutch) have 196 reasons to arrest him (MH17), so I really don’t understand where your “bet” is based on (other than personal opinions).

Yes, just my opinion. Assuming Putin's grip on power was secure, what do you think Russia's reaction would be if its head of state were arrested by Holland?

art wrote:

Yes, just my opinion. Assuming Putin's grip on power was secure, what do you think Russia's reaction would be if its head of state were arrested by Holland?

That’s an awfully large assumption you’re making, but I’ll play your game.

Russia would maybe send what’s left of their Spetsnaz and/or FSB forces. When they make it to The Hague they will find Dutch special forces waiting for them. As well, I would guess, special forces from the US, UK, Poland and other interested parties.

It won’t be pretty, but it will not end well for Spetsnaz.

All bets are of if Trump were to be elected though.

Don’t expect Russia to start bombing a NATO country in case their Fuhrer were arrested.

art wrote:

marcelh wrote:

art wrote:

I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

“We” (the Dutch) have 196 reasons to arrest him (MH17), so I really don’t understand where your “bet” is based on (other than personal opinions).

Yes, just my opinion. Assuming Putin's grip on power was secure, what do you think Russia's reaction would be if its head of state were arrested by Holland?

The Russians bloody well know their head of state has “an issue” in The Hague. Why let him go there? I can only assume they want to get rid of him.
What do you think Russia would do? Bomb the place? It is both EU and NATO territory, so that wouldn’t be the smartest action either (although I have to admit it would be interesting what the US should do…).

An update and on my part, correction, on the attack on a train carrying Kaliber cruise missiles;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkMiwwiuWtI

It was not carried out by partisans but drones, likely destination to load up Russian naval vessels with them.

Let’s play Tit for tat time, Russia defies Vladimir Putin arrest warrant by opening its own case against ICC. The crazies just keep getting crazier.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-21/ ... /102122508

iamlucky13 wrote:

I don't know exactly what the goal is, but Medvedev seems to have been assigned the role of Minister of Hyperbole. He has also been the most vocal high-ranking official spouting nuclear rhetoric, as far as I have seen (Example link).

For those not very familiar with him: He is a very long-time associate of Putin's, and was appointed by Putin when he became president to lead the state gas company Gazprom. When Putin reached term limits in 2008, Medvedev was endorsed by Putin as his preferred successor as president, resulting in an easy win. Putin is presumed to have remained extremely influential during Medvedev's presidency.

Since Russian term limits were for consecutive terms, not total terms, Medvedev then recommended Putin for president again in 2012. Afterwards, he was appointed by Putin as Prime Minister, resigned from that role in 2020 to facilitate other government reforms pushed by Putin, and was immediately appointed to the Russian security council. Although Medevdev has at times in the past seemed more friendly to the West than Putin, in retrospect, that seems like perhaps a planned public image to allow his presidency to point back to Putin as the leader really looking out for Russian interests

In short, Medvedev has a history of being a puppet for Putin.

So when Medvedev is saying shocking things to the media, my first assumption is Putin wants shocking things to be said, but has reasons not to say them himself.

At the present, it seems like his role is mainly to be a loose cannon to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about things Russia could in theory do, but in reality would worsen Russia's position. This not only leaves the west trying to figure out how crazy Russia actually is before we do anything (which is arguably one of Russia's propaganda successes), but it also ensures someone prominent is always calling for Russia to do something more extreme than Russia actually does, helping Putin look more moderate and prudent to the Russian public.

We don't have to work that hard at figuring out how crazy Russia is.

Here we have a former CEO, a former President of Russia and now a member of the RF Security Council saying Russia should launch hypersonic missiles from a warship at the International Criminal Court building. That's totally crazy.

Now we have word that college kids won't be given their diplomas till they go to the draft office where they get pressured into signing up for the military, thus turning the kids that should become future leaders into cannon fodder. That's totally crazy.

And now we have reports the Russian MoD (not Wagner) is "recruting" convicts by telling them if they don't join the army they will become eligible to become raped by other prisoners. Guess that's the kind of person they want in their military? That's totally crazy.

Ref: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 3884384297
Ref: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 1842716674

MohawkWeekend wrote:

What are the odds that was a Putin body double? Hard to believe a guy who sits 20 feet away from anyone else is out pressing the flesh with civilians in a war zone.

I'm getting more and more convinced body doubles are being used.

First, a photo that focuses on the chin and neck areas:



It's hard to conclude the guy in the middle is the same as the other two.

Ref: https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1637771371294883844

Now on the recent visits we have the same actors being found in the background of photos, and we have passers-by yelling out it's all being staged, it's a fake.

If they're using actors for the background, it's not a big leap to suggest they also use an actor in the foreground, IMO.

More/related info: https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussi ... _happen_if

A war crime last June, unusually well captured;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8K-zi5PxMI

Which allows for evidence and naming names of responsible suspects.
Especially when they tell their wives about it.

Revelation wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

I don't know exactly what the goal is, but Medvedev seems to have been assigned the role of Minister of Hyperbole.
....
At the present, it seems like his role is mainly to be a loose cannon to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about things Russia could in theory do, but in reality would worsen Russia's position. This not only leaves the west trying to figure out how crazy Russia actually is before we do anything (which is arguably one of Russia's propaganda successes), but it also ensures someone prominent is always calling for Russia to do something more extreme than Russia actually does, helping Putin look more moderate and prudent to the Russian public.

We don't have to work that hard at figuring out how crazy Russia is.

Here we have a former CEO, a former President of Russia and now a member of the RF Security Council saying Russia should launch hypersonic missiles from a warship at the International Criminal Court building. That's totally crazy.

The question is not whether Russia is crazy. They are. They killing tens of thousands of their own people and severely harming their country's prospects for prosperity to persist in this war.

They question is whether or not they are as crazy as they are pretending to be. Are they crazy enough to launch a strike on a NATO member over the effectively symbolic action of a court located on the territory of that country issuing an arrest warrant for Putin?

They're not. They know we would respond, and they will end up even worse off as a result.

But the mere fact that we even worry they might do it is a victory for Russia in the propaganda campaign they are waging.

iamlucky13 wrote:

The question is not whether Russia is crazy. They are. They killing tens of thousands of their own people and severely harming their country's prospects for prosperity to persist in this war.

They question is whether or not they are as crazy as they are pretending to be. Are they crazy enough to launch a strike on a NATO member over the effectively symbolic action of a court located on the territory of that country issuing an arrest warrant for Putin?

They're not. They know we would respond, and they will end up even worse off as a result.

But the mere fact that we even worry they might do it is a victory for Russia in the propaganda campaign they are waging.

The fact we know they won't do it means we don't worry, we just shake our heads.

Your post reminds me of a quote that I think is appropriate:

We know they are lying.
They know they are lying.
They know that we know they are lying.
We know that they know we know they are lying.
And still they continue to lie.
— Alexander Solzhenitsyn

To me they are not just liars, they have no conscience either.

The lying isn't just a surface level or temporary thing, it's a permanent and deep aspect of their character.

Any regime willing to kidnap children and send them to re-education camps is immoral.

You could say they are war criminals for doing so, the ICC already does.

Revelation wrote:

We know they are lying.
They know they are lying.
They know that we know they are lying.
We know that they know we know they are lying.
And still they continue to lie.
— Alexander Solzhenitsyn

To me they are not just liars, they have no conscience either.

The lying isn't just a surface level or temporary thing, it's a permanent and deep aspect of their character.

Any regime willing to kidnap children and send them to re-education camps is immoral.

You could say they are war criminals for doing so, the ICC already does.

As pointed out, everyone knows what is going on with many Russian outrages eg the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko using polonium in London, the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal in Winchester using Novichok, similarly Navalny in Russia. I think that Russia is brazen about its crimes as a way of making the point that it is so powerful that it can act as it will. Russia seems to delight in denying responsibility for its actions while leaving a trail of clues pointing to it being responsible for those actions.

Patriots and Abrams are going to be deployed in Ukraine earlier than expected.

Patriots - because the Ukrainians are fast learners.
Abrams - because the US have decided to ship the M1A1 version instead of the M1A2. Their delivery is now expected by fall of this year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/us-patriots-ukraine/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/us-abram-tanks-accelerate-ukraine/index.html

art wrote:

marcelh wrote:

art wrote:

I bet that if he landed at the nearest airport to The Hague, the Dutch would refuse him entry rather than let him into the country, giving them a duty to arrest him.

“We” (the Dutch) have 196 reasons to arrest him (MH17), so I really don’t understand where your “bet” is based on (other than personal opinions).

Yes, just my opinion. Assuming Putin's grip on power was secure, what do you think Russia's reaction would be if its head of state were arrested by Holland?

They won’t be able to do anything and most likely Putin will be left to be charged - I think Russia will be glad to be rid of him and will probably try to find someone more competent to replace him.

art wrote:

I think that Russia is brazen about its crimes as a way of making the point that it is so powerful that it can act as it will. Russia seems to delight in denying responsibility for its actions while leaving a trail of clues pointing to it being responsible for those actions.

When someone tells you how evil they are you should believe them, and you should act accordingly.

Meanwhile, state-owned news agency TASS says RU "intends" to return those children they said they never took in the first place.

Russia intends to return children who have been evacuated from the conflict zone to Ukraine when the conditions there are safe enough for that, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said.

Ref: https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/statu ... 1845176320

GDB wrote:

An update and on my part, correction, on the attack on a train carrying Kaliber cruise missiles;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkMiwwiuWtI

It was not carried out by partisans but drones, likely destination to load up Russian naval vessels with them.

Not a good sign for the Moscovites, drone attacks now are deeper and more effective than they've ever been:

1/ Last night's reported Ukrainian drone attack on the railway station at Dzhankoy in Russian-occupied Crimea is reported to have caused serious damage to infrastructure, as well as wounding one person. The local authorities have tried to play it down.

2/ The independent ASTRA Telegram channel reports that "at least five addresses were seriously damaged by drone attacks.
ChrisO_wiki

3/ Four of them belong to the railway station (locomotive depot, station security building, inventory and fuel depot), one is an agricultural store at 51 Perekopskaya Street.
...
8/ Damage to the railway infrastructure at Dzhankoy is very unwelcome news for Russia, as the station complex is the central node for Crimea's railway network. Disruption here is likely to cause problems for railway movements throughout Crimea.

Ref: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 9267857412

To add to the latest US announcement;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... l-sPSpiRz0

Coming from someone who authorized the use of one of the most lethal chemical weapon known, to an English city, in a botched murder attempt, which killed an innocent woman and injured several, including the intended targets. Only by chance, good policing, NBC procedures, prevented a mass casualty event;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... to-ukraine

So make your empty threats, we're hardly quaking.
The best response? Send another 14 Chally 2's.