Here is a chilling view of the kind of war analysis the Russian people are getting.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... r-780.html

I think everybody should watch this.

Vintage wrote:

Here is a chilling view of the kind of war analysis the Russian people are getting.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... r-780.html

I think everybody should watch this.

He’s like the Tucker Carson of Russian Fox News… would be interesting to know the age demographic of their viewers.

North Macedonia Confirms Su-25 Transfer To Ukraine

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/ ... er-ukraine

A study in visit contrasts;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... on-ukraine

Japan's laws prohibit sending weapons, however humanitarian support is vital. The political symbolism is notable too.

Look who the Daddy is, despite the bling on arrival;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -whos-boss

Look who came visiting and to where, shame it didn't happen when Putin was scuttling around the area;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19NBqxttvzU

From last year, now uncovered, useful stuff for river operations captured;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7fWJyGHbOU

Plus inevitably;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcvfHa ... HeqCEO0Ko6

art wrote:

As pointed out, everyone knows what is going on with many Russian outrages eg the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko using polonium in London, the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal in Winchester using Novichok, similarly Navalny in Russia. I think that Russia is brazen about its crimes as a way of making the point that it is so powerful that it can act as it will. Russia seems to delight in denying responsibility for its actions while leaving a trail of clues pointing to it being responsible for those actions.

Great strategy. Doing this guarantees your isolation on the international level long term since no one trusts you. In the short term the only interactions you get are transactional, like Xi happily visiting Moscovy because he's getting oil at $35 a barrel below market rates.

In a different forum one member equated Russia to a serial killer. At the surface level you see just another nation with people mostly doing what normal people do, but when you look closer you find a pervasive underlying evilness, one without any conscious.

I hope they get what they deserve in this war, which is to be shown how broken they are as a nation.

GDB wrote:

Look who the Daddy is, despite the bling on arrival;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -whos-boss

One line I found to be an interesting illumination:

From the moment Xi stepped off his Boeing 747

Oh yeah, China don't make airplanes...

On his way to the five-star Chinese-owned Soluxe Hotel,

No need to stay at a Russian owned establishment.

Unsurprisingly, Xi was spared the long-table diplomacy reserved for western dignitaries that travelled to Moscow in futile attempts to prevent the war in Ukraine.

Observers of the two’s body language say Xi came across as more relaxed and commanding than Putin.

Xi had pre-empted Putin by a split-second in reaching out for their set-piece handshake.

Indeed, look who the Daddy is.

And on state television, Russians were treated to a series of Xi’s pre-recorded quotes about the importance of labour and hard work.

Yet another indignity suffered by the peasantry.

Ukraine might be receiving wester fighter jets sooner rather than later after all. Here we go:

In a move that could further strengthen its military ties with Ukraine, France is currently training a group of around thirty Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000 combat aircraft, Le Figaro writes. The pilots are receiving an accelerated training program on French fighter-bombers at the Mont-de-Marsan and Nancy air bases, which has been ongoing for more than a month and a half.

The move puts France alongside the United States and the United Kingdom, which are also providing training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/france-trains-ukrainian-pilots-on-mirage-planes-le-figaro/

On the power dynamics between Putin and Xi;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssia-china

Economic package to Ukraine;
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... or-ukraine

Using missile debris as war crimes evidence;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-cemetery

More footage of the likely maritime drone attack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiH6eBfIgbw

The first units of the indigenous surveillance drone "Shark" go into service in Ukraine.

Wholly privately funded thanks to a fund raising organized by a gas stations network, "they will provide increased surveillance and reconnaissance range for Kyiv’s military, providing data for firepower including the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMAR)."



https://metro.co.uk/2023/03/22/shark-drones-deployed-on-ukraine-battlefield-in-now-or-never-moment-18486052/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/s ... to-ukraine

T-55 heading to Ukraine?

Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively.


Saw a video of the Ukrainian attacking the Russian trenches with some M113 variant.

They were scooting back and forth in a kind of a dance taking turn raking the trench line with machine gun fire.

https://youtu.be/hKI8N_P30nA

What kind of tactics was this? Was this one method of doing ATGM and artilery fire?

I was concerned about Russian ATGM with the comment offensive. But I guess the Ukrainians have at least one countermeasure against ATGM teams. . . More drones.

https://youtu.be/DWi7MNbaMd0.

bt

tomcat wrote:

Ukraine might be receiving wester fighter jets sooner rather than later after all. Here we go:

In a move that could further strengthen its military ties with Ukraine, France is currently training a group of around thirty Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000 combat aircraft, Le Figaro writes. The pilots are receiving an accelerated training program on French fighter-bombers at the Mont-de-Marsan and Nancy air bases, which has been ongoing for more than a month and a half.

The move puts France alongside the United States and the United Kingdom, which are also providing training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/france-trains-ukrainian-pilots-on-mirage-planes-le-figaro/

Ukraine denies the information.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-air-force-denies-information-192900087.html

"We have trained air observers in France and taken survival courses for aviators, but we are not talking about training flight crews,"

French Ministere des armées reportedly saying the same, but in french
https://twitter.com/phnou/status/1638831342522597378?t=NUmmy0KPHzfmRcY9UVRBGA&s=03

Les formations dispensées ont trait à la defense sol-air et à la survie en cas d’éjection #AFP

Grizzly410 wrote:

tomcat wrote:

Ukraine might be receiving wester fighter jets sooner rather than later after all. Here we go:

In a move that could further strengthen its military ties with Ukraine, France is currently training a group of around thirty Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000 combat aircraft, Le Figaro writes. The pilots are receiving an accelerated training program on French fighter-bombers at the Mont-de-Marsan and Nancy air bases, which has been ongoing for more than a month and a half.

The move puts France alongside the United States and the United Kingdom, which are also providing training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/france-trains-ukrainian-pilots-on-mirage-planes-le-figaro/

Ukraine denies the information.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-air-force-denies-information-192900087.html

"We have trained air observers in France and taken survival courses for aviators, but we are not talking about training flight crews,"

French Ministere des armées reportedly saying the same, but in french
https://twitter.com/phnou/status/1638831342522597378?t=NUmmy0KPHzfmRcY9UVRBGA&s=03

Les formations dispensées ont trait à la defense sol-air et à la survie en cas d’éjection #AFP

I speak French. AFP says training given relates to

- ground to air defence
- survival in case of ejection

https://twitter.com/phnou/status/163883 ... VRBGA&s=03

If those T-55s are indeed headed to the war, and we’re not sure it it yet, it won’t be long before they start dusting off the thousands of T-34s parked around everywhere. Wouldn’t that be a sight to behold.

bikerthai wrote:

:stirthepot: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/s ... to-ukraine

T-55 heading to Ukraine?

Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively.

Here's a photo of a T-55 next to a Challenger 1:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Warthunder/com ... llenger_1/

T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is better than having no tank, but it really has no chance of survival when up against modern MBTs and ATGMs. Basically, they will end up as containers for the incinerated remains of their operators, probably not very good ones since they too store ammunition inside the cabin so their crew will often end up becoming cosmonauts.

The RUAF are following the same mindless pattern. They are not making any progress on the front lines, so they send tanks. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending obsolete tanks. They are not making progress on the front line, so they send troops. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending untrained troops with untrained leaders. These keep getting consumed at a high rate, so they send more, with the quality decreasing each time.

Revelation wrote:

T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is better than having no tank, but it really has no chance of survival when up against modern MBTs and ATGMs. Basically, they will end up as containers for the incinerated remains of their operators, probably not very good ones since they too store ammunition inside the cabin so their crew will often end up becoming cosmonauts.

The RUAF are following the same mindless pattern. They are not making any progress on the front lines, so they send tanks. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending obsolete tanks. They are not making progress on the front line, so they send troops. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending untrained troops with untrained leaders. These keep getting consumed at a high rate, so they send more, with the quality decreasing each time.

So Russia has to throw more and more in to get the same result where the opposition is a constant. I guess that will be measurable for the hardware.

With military supplies from Russia facing roadblocks given the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force has sharply reduced its projected spending on procurement for FY24. The cut has taken place due to delays in the supply of the critical S400 air defence system and spares for the air force fleet.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst

Sounds like the war is having an effect on Russia's ability to export weapons and spares. I guess that will affect the choice countries make when choosing to import weapons from several sources, one being Russia. I have read that India was facing problems transferring the funds to pay for earlier S400 deliveries.

art wrote:

So Russia has to throw more and more in to get the same result where the opposition is a constant.

I would say the opposition is not a constant, it has being given an increasing quantity/quality of weapons, training and intelligence versus time. RUAF mobilized 300k men, it hasn't made a difference. Future RUAF drafts are even less likely to benefit them since they've had so much attrition in officers and weaponry.

There's a theory being promoted on the Kos, that rangefinders are rhe limiting factor in being back these Russian tanks. Perhaps a T-55 with and obsolete optical range finder may be better than a T-72 who's range finder have been sold off.

bt

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

:stirthepot: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/s ... to-ukraine

T-55 heading to Ukraine?

Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively.

Here's a photo of a T-55 next to a Challenger 1:



Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Warthunder/com ... llenger_1/

T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is better than having no tank, but it really has no chance of survival when up against modern MBTs and ATGMs. Basically, they will end up as containers for the incinerated remains of their operators, probably not very good ones since they too store ammunition inside the cabin so their crew will often end up becoming cosmonauts.

The RUAF are following the same mindless pattern. They are not making any progress on the front lines, so they send tanks. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending obsolete tanks. They are not making progress on the front line, so they send troops. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending untrained troops with untrained leaders. These keep getting consumed at a high rate, so they send more, with the quality decreasing each time.

They are similar looking but that's a Challenger 2, from the 2003 conflict.
In the first Gulf War, a Challenger 1 scored what is to date the longest confirmed tank on tank kill, on a T-55 series, granted the terrain there favoured longer range engagements, though the Ch1 had a previous generation fire control system;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAZlPbVay28

An update on the maritime drone attack;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0GYQuPvrQE

The first 4 of the Slovak MIG-29's are finally in the Ukraine. The transfer was completed by Ukrainian pilots with support from the Slovak Air Force, Ukrainian personnel and other outfits that managed the transfer and the the documentation. The rest of the aircraft will be transferred in the coming weeks. The transfers will be announced only when the aircraft are safely in Ukrainian territory.
Article in Slovak only - please use Google translator:
https://domov.sme.sk/c/23149978/stihack ... ajinu.html
Edit: Video of the departure is posted on the Slovak Armed Forces Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/ozbrojenesily. ... 26723/?t=5

Grizzly410 wrote:

tomcat wrote:

Ukraine might be receiving wester fighter jets sooner rather than later after all. Here we go:

In a move that could further strengthen its military ties with Ukraine, France is currently training a group of around thirty Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000 combat aircraft, Le Figaro writes. The pilots are receiving an accelerated training program on French fighter-bombers at the Mont-de-Marsan and Nancy air bases, which has been ongoing for more than a month and a half.

The move puts France alongside the United States and the United Kingdom, which are also providing training to Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/france-trains-ukrainian-pilots-on-mirage-planes-le-figaro/

Ukraine denies the information.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-air-force-denies-information-192900087.html

"We have trained air observers in France and taken survival courses for aviators, but we are not talking about training flight crews,"

French Ministere des armées reportedly saying the same, but in french
https://twitter.com/phnou/status/1638831342522597378?t=NUmmy0KPHzfmRcY9UVRBGA&s=03

Les formations dispensées ont trait à la defense sol-air et à la survie en cas d’éjection #AFP

I really thought Le Figaro was still a trustable source. Sorry for that.

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

T-55 heading to Ukraine?

Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively.

T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is better than having no tank, but it really has no chance of survival when up against modern MBTs and ATGMs. Basically, they will end up as containers for the incinerated remains of their operators, probably not very good ones since they too store ammunition inside the cabin so their crew will often end up becoming cosmonauts.

The RUAF are following the same mindless pattern. They are not making any progress on the front lines, so they send tanks. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending obsolete tanks. They are not making progress on the front line, so they send troops. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending untrained troops with untrained leaders. These keep getting consumed at a high rate, so they send more, with the quality decreasing each time.

Ukraine is also using T-55's, although at least in their case, they are the significantly modernized M-55s:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... _army.html

Starting in the 90's, Slovenia did a major upgrade of their T-55's. This included additional applique armor (some sources say it is ERA, and if so, it is unusually neatly fitted, with very small gaps). The old 100mm cannon was replaced with the 105mm L7 that the original version of the M1 Abrams was equipped with, along with a modern fire control system, the engines were replaced, and the suspension and steering systems upgraded.

Slovenia donated 28 of them to Ukraine in December.

The really interesting thing to me is Russia has been sending old equipment for a long time. T-62's were being captured at least as far back as the Kharkiv counteroffensive. T-72A variants were being seen already by May. That version started to be supplanted by the T-72B, which had significant improvements, in the mid-80's.

But going back beyond the T-72 at all was a surprise to me. They're reported to have had roughly 8,000 T-72's in storage, and another 2500 T-80's. But apparently between needing extensive refurbishment and parts limitations, it's easier to get even older T-55's and T-62's in service than to get enough of the newer tanks ready.

I would expect Russia to use their older tanks primarily to provide fire support for infantry, and in defensive roles, rather than in assault units or other roles that would make them highly exposed. There is a much larger number of much more portable weapons they will be vulnerable to than the T-72's and T-80's.

iamlucky13 wrote:

Revelation wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

T-55 heading to Ukraine?

Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively.

T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is better than having no tank, but it really has no chance of survival when up against modern MBTs and ATGMs. Basically, they will end up as containers for the incinerated remains of their operators, probably not very good ones since they too store ammunition inside the cabin so their crew will often end up becoming cosmonauts.

The RUAF are following the same mindless pattern. They are not making any progress on the front lines, so they send tanks. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending obsolete tanks. They are not making progress on the front line, so they send troops. They don't seem to notice or care that they are sending untrained troops with untrained leaders. These keep getting consumed at a high rate, so they send more, with the quality decreasing each time.

Ukraine is also using T-55's, although at least in their case, they are the significantly modernized M-55s:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... _army.html

Starting in the 90's, Slovenia did a major upgrade of their T-55's. This included additional applique armor (some sources say it is ERA, and if so, it is unusually neatly fitted, with very small gaps). The old 100mm cannon was replaced with the 105mm L7 that the original version of the M1 Abrams was equipped with, along with a modern fire control system, the engines were replaced, and the suspension and steering systems upgraded.

Slovenia donated 28 of them to Ukraine in December.

The really interesting thing to me is Russia has been sending old equipment for a long time. T-62's were being captured at least as far back as the Kharkiv counteroffensive. T-72A variants were being seen already by May. That version started to be supplanted by the T-72B, which had significant improvements, in the mid-80's.

But going back beyond the T-72 at all was a surprise to me. They're reported to have had roughly 8,000 T-72's in storage, and another 2500 T-80's. But apparently between needing extensive refurbishment and parts limitations, it's easier to get even older T-55's and T-62's in service than to get enough of the newer tanks ready.

I would expect Russia to use their older tanks primarily to provide fire support for infantry, and in defensive roles, rather than in assault units or other roles that would make them highly exposed. There is a much larger number of much more portable weapons they will be vulnerable to than the T-72's and T-80's.

Likely comparable to the Leopard 1, the L7 can take a T-72. Plus modernized fire control.

A compilation of recent Russian losses;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2BAkXkFPKk

Away from numbers and wrecks, an up close and for the soldiers and BBC crew, personal report from the very front line.
Stunning, shocking, brave;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtqDLsNa-c4

iamlucky13 wrote:

I would expect Russia to use their older tanks primarily to provide fire support for infantry, and in defensive roles, rather than in assault units or other roles that would make them highly exposed

I don't think the Russian will be any more effective with combined arms defense than they are at combined arms offense.

If used as a stationary gun platform, these tanks will be just as vulnerable top attack from drones as the more modern one.

bt

GDB wrote:

Away from numbers and wrecks, an up close and for the soldiers and BBC crew, personal report from the very front line.
Stunning, shocking, brave;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtqDLsNa-c4

That was intense. I've only seen a handful of videos from journalists in areas where they might face significant fire, but I haven't seen any so far where it was that close.

I think the soldiers in that video are likely TDF - a mix of reservists and mobilized Ukrainians. They don't get as much training or equipment as the regular ground forces. Sometimes it shows.

It might have been hotter that day than expected when they approved a journalist visit.

tomcat wrote:

Grizzly410 wrote:

tomcat wrote:

Ukraine might be receiving wester fighter jets sooner rather than later after all. Here we go:



https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/22/france-trains-ukrainian-pilots-on-mirage-planes-le-figaro/

Ukraine denies the information.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-air-force-denies-information-192900087.html

"We have trained air observers in France and taken survival courses for aviators, but we are not talking about training flight crews,"

French Ministere des armées reportedly saying the same, but in french
https://twitter.com/phnou/status/1638831342522597378?t=NUmmy0KPHzfmRcY9UVRBGA&s=03

Les formations dispensées ont trait à la defense sol-air et à la survie en cas d’éjection #AFP

I really thought Le Figaro was still a trustable source. Sorry for that.

And you were right, it usually is a trustable source, even if this time they got fooled.
Survival courses in relation with ejection may have put the trainees close or in a Mirage cockpit at some point, from there it's quite easy to extrapolate for a witness.
It's not totally excluded either that they are effectively flight training and that France and Ukraine didn't want the info to be released therefore deny it...

On the practical front, integrating any Western-designed fighters that end up being donated alongside Polish and Slovakian MiG-29s could require addressing a raft of operational issues in terms of training, basing, equipment familiarization and integration with ground forces.

Multinational coordination and a credible implementation plan may also be required, alongside the provision of support to training, maintenance and tactical planning. Avoiding fratricidal or “blue on blue” incidents could also need attention; without considerable training and rehearsal, using unfamiliar equipment for complex tasks such as close air support can be a sizable risk. The training pipeline for pilots, ground crew and others involved in embedding new systems of this complexity would usually stretch into years, and while some shortcuts can always be found, there are limits on how far this can be pushed in terms of safety and training capacity.

In short, if the West is going to follow Poland and Slovakia’s lead with further donations of other Soviet- or Western-designed fighters, a credible, long-term package of training, maintenance and other support could be essential to turn this from a symbolic gesture to a decisive impact on the battlefields of Ukraine.

James Black is the assistant director of the defense and security research group at Rand Europe, a unit of the U.S.-based think tank Rand.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/com ... o-ukraine/

I would say that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end this year, so it is probable that Ukraine would benefit from the introduction of Gripen C (or F-16 if it can handle ground conditions). Time to get started on a western fighter, bearing in mind that Ukraine must be losing some of its fighters and there are not many attrition replacements available?

I hope I won't be writing the above two sentences again in a year's time.

art wrote:

Time to get started on a western fighter, bearing in mind that Ukraine must be losing some of its fighters and there are not many attrition replacements available?

If you wee a buyer for Ukraine with a fixed budget, what would you buy?

1000 GLSBD or 1 F-16 without a single bomb to drop from?

There is a reason why evey couple of week the US provide a specific amount of equipment through the draw down. It has something to do with US law. Imagine how big a budget hole in each of those draw down would cause if a couple of fighters were added.

Yes I would also love to have Ukraine have a few fighters, but I don't see the additional fighters helping much with reclaiming Crimea. I see a bunch of GLSBD to be more useful. In fact for obvious reason, I see ATACMs more useful. I would put my money on the US providing ATACMs before providing F-16s.

That is why I'm hoping for the French to come through.


bt

art wrote:

I would say that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end this year, so it is

I have to agree with you. But let's hope Ukraine can at least can isolate Crimea by the end of the year.

If Russia loses Crimea, holding the rest of Ukraine will be pointless.


bt

iamlucky13 wrote:

But going back beyond the T-72 at all was a surprise to me. They're reported to have had roughly 8,000 T-72's in storage, and another 2500 T-80's. But apparently between needing extensive refurbishment and parts limitations, it's easier to get even older T-55's and T-62's in service than to get enough of the newer tanks ready.

There are plenty of explanations for all of the above. It benefited the Westerners to over-state Russia's stockpiles (remember the missile gap?). It benefited the Russians to have their own leaders believing an over-stated figure. Corruption is rife in Russian society, the tanks could have been stolen and sold off to third party exporters, or key parts could have been removed and sold off. The T-80s with turbines simply could be down for maintenance. The turbines had poor durability, their turbine blades wore out quickly, and the post-USSR world didn't fund their supply chain at the needed levels. Overall we're talking about 40 to 60+ year old equipment being operated and maintained by conscripts. Stuff breaks, and if you don't repair it right away, you soon have a massive backlog of unserviced equipment.

I think it'd be much more of a surprise if every piece of equipment Russia allegedly had in its stockpiles was present and serviceable.

bikerthai wrote:

art wrote:

I would say that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end this year, so it is

I have to agree with you. But let's hope Ukraine can at least can isolate Crimea by the end of the year.

If Russia loses Crimea, holding the rest of Ukraine will be pointless.


bt

The problem I see in coming to an arrangement likely to bring peace rather than conflict in Ukraine is that of the people living there. The states of Russia and Ukraine seem to be far more interested in territory than in the wishes of the people living in that territory. What is the benefit to either state in 'owning' territory where the inhabitants do not want to be 'owned' by that state? Do the people in the areas occupied by Russia since Feb 24th want to live with government by Russia? Mostly no, I think. Do the people in Donetsk and Luhansk want to live with government by Ukraine? Mostly no, I think.

I think that both Russia and Ukraine are cursed with extreme nationalistic elements. It should not matter if you favour Russian or Ukrainian culture in any part of the 1991 country of Ukraine in order to be treated equally. Unless a respect for difference can be fostered, rather than intolerance, there can be no happy end result to this war.

art wrote:

I think that both Russia and Ukraine are cursed with extreme nationalistic elements. It should not matter if you favour Russian or Ukrainian culture in any part of the 1991 country of Ukraine in order to be treated equally.

Perhaps, but the difference is one of the two chose to use war to express their nationalism and invade the territory of the other, rather than participate in a process that could have found compromises in a peaceful way. Also one continues to kidnap the youth of the other to indoctrinate them in their culture, and continues to deliberately target civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves.

art wrote:

Unless a respect for difference can be fostered, rather than intolerance, there can be no happy end result to this war.

The first goal is to stop the killing and the destruction, then work on a just society.

Personally I think the end of the war will see a lot of self-imposed ethnic cleansing. Russophiles will know they won't have much of a future in Ukraine and will leave all on their own. We already see the flight of Russians across the Kerch Bridge whenever Crimea gets threatened. They know they don't belong there. They flee whenever circumstances make it so they can't ignore their lack of status any longer.

Mirage 2000’s, even with better positioned intakes, still could not operate from the strips Ukraine is operating Soviet era jets from, better than the F-16 but still an issue.
And if you think that’s not a big issue, the Ukrainians have stated which Russian missiles they cannot yet intercept, there are a number which the being delivered Patriots likely can once in service and the pending SAMP-T.
These will not be delivered in large numbers due to the limited numbers of them, could they be spared to defend a runway suitable for a small number of Western fast jets, whose defenses, despite limited Russian numbers of these particular ones, could be swamped?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... FWkJAeYN9y

Then there is the Mirage 2000C, the ones mooted for possible use by Ukraine having been retired.
Entering service in the early 80’s, the radar and BVRAAM performance will not likely threaten those SU-30 series and MiG-31’s in Russian airspace.
The Mirage 2000-5 upgrade models could but they are still in French AF service.
These are not also the more dedicated twin seat strike aircraft version, some export customers had a more swing role single seat version that were delivered, doubt they are heading to Ukraine.
Dassault might build tough birds but that fundamental problem of vulnerability on the ground will not just be wished away.

It is clear that training, to familiarize Ukrainian pilots in general Western equipment, training, tactics, procedures, maintenance is going on in the UK, US and maybe France?
Nothing specific to aircraft types being supplied in the near term.

Is this then a case of conflating the above with the excitable, usually very ill informed media speculation.
After all, static lines for now and trench warfare are in those news agenda terms, ‘boring’.

From the Darth Putin account on Twitter:

Months - 13
Victories - 0
Friends - 0
Casualties - 169,000+
Sanctions - Infinite
Border with NATO - 1300km longer
Economy - Toilet
Rouble - Toilet Paper
Arrest warrants - 2
Wanted - in 123 countries
Oil & gas - Sharply down
Tank tech - 1950s
Baltic Sea - NATO lake

I remain a master strategist

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3111697411

All this after predicting total victory with Zelinskyy's assassination and replacement of the government in three days.

art wrote:

Do the people in Donetsk and Luhansk want to live with government by Ukraine? Mostly no, I think.

There can be an argument that the people of the Donetsk never had a choice. The breakaway seemed to have been orchestrated by some local leaders who lust for power had the backing of the Russian leadership who was using the local puppets to do its bidding.

Without the backing of the Russian Army, the teritory of the Donetsk and Luhansk would fall like how So Vietnam fell in '75. But unlike in that case, there will be no wave of refugees crossing the ocean to seek freedom because there would be no ocean to cross and freedom (both economic and political) would not be found in Russia.

It only took one generation for the children of Vietnam to love the USA again, even through famine and sanctions. I bet it would take less than that for the reintegration of the Donetsk and Luhansk.

bt

Revelation wrote:

From the Darth Putin account on Twitter:

Months - 13
Victories - 0
Friends - 0
Casualties - 169,000+
Sanctions - Infinite
Border with NATO - 1300km longer
Economy - Toilet
Rouble - Toilet Paper
Arrest warrants - 2
Wanted - in 123 countries
Oil & gas - Sharply down
Tank tech - 1950s
Baltic Sea - NATO lake

I remain a master strategist

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3111697411

All this after predicting total victory with Zelinskyy's assassination and replacement of the government in three days.

Victories - 0

Don't want to be too oppressively realistic but I have to observe that Russian forces hold a lot more Ukrainian territory than they did 23 Feb 2022. Was that that done by magic or is it due to Darth Putin's forces having a few victories?

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

From the Darth Putin account on Twitter:

Months - 13
Victories - 0
Friends - 0
Casualties - 169,000+
Sanctions - Infinite
Border with NATO - 1300km longer
Economy - Toilet
Rouble - Toilet Paper
Arrest warrants - 2
Wanted - in 123 countries
Oil & gas - Sharply down
Tank tech - 1950s
Baltic Sea - NATO lake

I remain a master strategist

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3111697411

All this after predicting total victory with Zelinskyy's assassination and replacement of the government in three days.

Victories - 0

Don't want to be too oppressively realistic but I have to observe that Russian forces hold a lot more Ukrainian territory than they did 23 Feb 2022. Was that that done by magic or is it due to Darth Putin's forces having a few victories?

Maybe somewhere in between? I was not paying nearly as much attention in the early days as I am now, but I believe that most of that territory was taken with little or no opposition.

mjgbtv wrote:

I was not paying nearly as much attention in the early days as I am now, but I believe that most of that territory was taken with little or no opposition.

It would still count as victories.

If you start from Feb 24, then Russia is still +2.5 on the victory ledger. Give them +.5 victory for Bakhmut and the north and give them +1 for the Southern territories and +1 for Mariupol itself.

bt

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

From the Darth Putin account on Twitter:

Months - 13
Victories - 0
Friends - 0
Casualties - 169,000+
Sanctions - Infinite
Border with NATO - 1300km longer
Economy - Toilet
Rouble - Toilet Paper
Arrest warrants - 2
Wanted - in 123 countries
Oil & gas - Sharply down
Tank tech - 1950s
Baltic Sea - NATO lake

I remain a master strategist

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3111697411

All this after predicting total victory with Zelinskyy's assassination and replacement of the government in three days.

Victories - 0

Don't want to be too oppressively realistic but I have to observe that Russian forces hold a lot more Ukrainian territory than they did 23 Feb 2022. Was that that done by magic or is it due to Darth Putin's forces having a few victories?

Given the aim of an operation deliberately named to demonstrate a rapid, relatively cost free in both military and economic terms, to capture or kill the Ukrainian leadership, surround the capital, ‘liberate’ the country with not much opposition, with likely expected additional sanctions from the West, much argued over along with other divisions created, which Russia planned for, as they would be still limited and likely piecemeal, yes I would call that a huge failure.
They did not even tell the main body of their army it was not an exercise, they did not plan for major resistance and Western support so did not prepare for it.

bikerthai wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

I was not paying nearly as much attention in the early days as I am now, but I believe that most of that territory was taken with little or no opposition.

It would still count as victories.

If you start from Feb 24, then Russia is still +2.5 on the victory ledger. Give them +.5 victory for Bakhmut and the north and give them +1 for the Southern territories and +1 for Mariupol itself.

bt

My comment was about the 'master strategist' label. Yes Russia took some land, but does that make it a strategic victory?

mjgbtv wrote:

Yes Russia took some land, but does that make it a strategic victory?

A victory is a victory. Who cares who's ahead in the victory count (strategic or otherwise). What's important is who has the momentum to win the war.

If this was a football match. The Ukrainian is down a goal but the Russian are down half the team due to red cards. And the REF is giving unlimited injury time.

bt

Meanwhile in Slovenia;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... l-slovenia

A rather different family in London;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... s-uk-diary

Latest German package;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... v3rS-k0Kov

bikerthai wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

Yes Russia took some land, but does that make it a strategic victory?

A victory is a victory. Who cares who's ahead in the victory count (strategic or otherwise)..

bt

I'd say this is a good old pyrrhic victory, so far. The more Russia is pressing further, the closer they get to an outright defeat.

The communications coordinator for the National Security Council had a delightfully pointed response during a press conference this week, to a question about Russia's comments about depleted uranium ammunition:

Q: Does the Biden administration have any concern about the Brits sharing such ammo?

Adm. John Kirby, USN (ret) wrote:

if Russia is deeply concerned about the welfare of their tanks and their tank soldiers, the safest thing for them to do is to move them across the border and get them out of Ukraine.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -kirby-11/

tomcat wrote:

bikerthai wrote:

mjgbtv wrote:

Yes Russia took some land, but does that make it a strategic victory?

A victory is a victory. Who cares who's ahead in the victory count (strategic or otherwise)..

bt

I'd say this is a good old pyrrhic victory, so far. The more Russia is pressing further, the closer they get to an outright defeat.

Perun had a good in depth look at it; no matter how you look at it, Russia has already lost. For Ukraine it is still up in the air if they will win or lose…

Dramatic footage of Russian assault on a Ukrainian outpost being repelled by artillery fire.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639342501059260416

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

From the Darth Putin account on Twitter:

Months - 13
Victories - 0
Friends - 0
Casualties - 169,000+
Sanctions - Infinite
Border with NATO - 1300km longer
Economy - Toilet
Rouble - Toilet Paper
Arrest warrants - 2
Wanted - in 123 countries
Oil & gas - Sharply down
Tank tech - 1950s
Baltic Sea - NATO lake

I remain a master strategist

Ref: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 3111697411

All this after predicting total victory with Zelinskyy's assassination and replacement of the government in three days.

Victories - 0

Don't want to be too oppressively realistic but I have to observe that Russian forces hold a lot more Ukrainian territory than they did 23 Feb 2022. Was that that done by magic or is it due to Darth Putin's forces having a few victories?

You're taking parody way too seriously.

Vintage wrote:

Dramatic footage of Russian assault on a Ukrainian outpost being repelled by artillery fire.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639342501059260416

Probably worth cautioning: It is not graphically gory, but individuals are visible at a distance apparently being killed at various points in the video.

bikerthai wrote:

art wrote:

Do the people in Donetsk and Luhansk want to live with government by Ukraine? Mostly no, I think.

There can be an argument that the people of the Donetsk never had a choice. The breakaway seemed to have been orchestrated by some local leaders who lust for power had the backing of the Russian leadership who was using the local puppets to do its bidding.

Well, they had their fake referendum.

But it's amusing to think that Russia was happy to fight a proxy war, then when shit got real, they complain they're victims of a proxy war.

Vintage wrote:

Dramatic footage of Russian assault on a Ukrainian outpost being repelled by artillery fire.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1639342501059260416

That's crazy to be able to watch something like that. It's also crazy that even though Ukrainian artillery was coming down right on them, the Russians kept advancing until only a few appear left alive.

Why didn't the Russians drop some of their gear so they could move faster? Icy, frozen ground looks like about zero degrees f. Brutal - war really does suck.