JJJ wrote:

Lot of Twitter and news chatter about a stray missile landing in Polish territory and killing two in a small village called Przewodów

You can probably already hear the typing of Russian media and useful idiots saying it's a false flag operation and the excuse NATO needed to get in the fray.

Not good.

India's government has sacked three air force officers for the "accidental firing of a missile" into Pakistan in March.

The incident had escalated tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations.

Delhi had blamed the "deeply regrettable" incident on a "technical malfunction" during routine maintenance.

Islamabad warned Delhi to "be mindful of the unpleasant consequences of such negligence" and to avoid a repeat.

The officers responsible for the 9 March incident have been terminated from service, the Indian Air Force said in a statement on Tuesday.

dampfnudel wrote:

Two dead in Poland from suspected Russian missile strike.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/11/15/b ... oland/amp/

A senior US intelligence official said Russian missiles crossed into Nato member Poland, killing two people. Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has convened an urgent meeting of a committee for national security and defence affairs, the government spokesman Piotr Müller said on Twitter.

Russia has launched waves of missile strikes across Ukraine even as G20 leaders – including its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov – met in Bali. Ukraine’s authorities said it was another planned attack aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure facilities. Seven million homes have been left without power.

Ukraine’s public broadcaster reported that the strikes have targeted Kyiv, Kyiv region, Kharkiv city as well as Poltava, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Cherkassy, Odesa, and Chernihiv regions. The strikes follow Russia’s retreat from Kherson and the west bank of the Dnipro River last week.

Russia fired “around 100 missiles” at cities across Ukraine, according to Yurii Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force command.

art wrote:

Mistakes happen.

In Bali, Lavrov told the media that “all the problems are on the Ukrainian side, which categorically refuses any negotiations and puts forward conditions that are obviously unrealistic and inadequate in this situation”.

luckyone wrote:

Oh jeez. The Poles would probably be the last group I'd want to piss off in this conflict. Not because of any perceived military might, but opinion in Poland right now is solidly anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine, and now they'll be even more so. Another really pissed off neighbor.

Vintage wrote:

luckyone wrote:

Oh jeez. The Poles would probably be the last group I'd want to piss off in this conflict. Not because of any perceived military might, but opinion in Poland right now is solidly anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine, and now they'll be even more so. Another really pissed off neighbor.

Russia could have no objection now if Poland began CAP patrols over Ukrainian territory, or gave Ukraine some upgraded Mig-29s.

JJJ wrote:

Lot of Twitter and news chatter about a stray missile landing in Polish territory and killing two in a small village called Przewodów

You can probably already hear the typing of Russian media and useful idiots saying it's a false flag operation and the excuse NATO needed to get in the fray.

Not good.

Slcpilot wrote:

Some social media suggest the missile might have been an S-300.
Designed as a surface to air missile, there are two likely possibilities.
1) errant Ukrainian air defense missile
2) Russians have been using them as ground to ground ballistic missiles. It wouldn’t have the range from the battle front to get to Poland. From Belarus is a possibility.
I think (1) is more likely.
SLCPilot

TheSonntag wrote:

Damn. This could lead to severe escalation. A no fly zone from Nato in the Area from Poland to, lets say, Kyiv, would be an appropriate answer.

GDB wrote:

Russia has extensively used S300's in an improvised air to ground role, showing how limited their stocks of proper systems for this role such as cruise missiles, likely are.
Naturally, they can be somewhat erratic.
It might be an errant Ukrainian SAM, however they have expended so many in this war, in their intended role, it's just more likely it was a Russian S300, in any case, why are the Ukrainians firing so many in the first place?

I agree, while the point made the other day about not supplying MGM-140's as a possible agreement not to do so as long as China gives no help to Russia, makes sense as an explanation, that's not proven.
With debris it will not take long presumably to source the S300 weapon.
Then if Russian, send the MGM-140's as well as more Avengers and any system that can be spared for AD.

Aside from these developments, the story of someone who was a kind of metaphor in human form for the occupation of Kherson and the Russian war in general'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... n-official

“I am on a constant high,” the Moscow-installed official told the Guardian in a phone interview in August. “We have won. I am living in a dream. Russia is in Kherson for ever.”

That “for ever” ended abruptly on Wednesday, when Stremousov, 45, was killed in a car crash as he was speeding away from Kherson.

luckyone wrote:

Oh jeez. The Poles would probably be the last group I'd want to piss off in this conflict. Not because of any perceived military might, but opinion in Poland right now is solidly anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine, and now they'll be even more so. Another really pissed off neighbor.

Aesma wrote:

You're not applying Russian logic are you ?

dampfnudel wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Damn. This could lead to severe escalation. A no fly zone from Nato in the Area from Poland to, lets say, Kyiv, would be an appropriate answer.

A no-fly zone west of Kyiv seems logical now to prevent another “accidental” Russian strike on NATO/EU territory. More air support for Ukraine and longer range missile systems may be in the cards now as well.

China joined Russia to oppose using “war” to describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a joint communique at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia, attempting to undercut an effort by the United States and allies to condemn the conflict in the strongest terms possible.

Negotiations on the joint statement included a fractious debate over the word, with Russia and China pushing hard for another term to describe more than eight months of grinding, bloody military conflict that followed Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine, according to delegates.

Revelation wrote:

Let's all agree to not call it a war, even though we all know it's a war. Let's agree to not call it a war because wars are bad things and we don't want to admit we do bad things. Let's call it a military action, that makes it sound more like a parade than invading another country, killing, ****ing and destroying as we go.

TheSonntag wrote:

Damn. This could lead to severe escalation. A no fly zone from Nato in the Area from Poland to, lets say, Kyiv, would be an appropriate answer.

jetwet1 wrote:

Playing devils advocate, do we want to have a potential situation put in place where NATO aircraft could end up shooting down Russian aircraft ?

jetwet1 wrote:

dampfnudel wrote:

TheSonntag wrote:

Damn. This could lead to severe escalation. A no fly zone from Nato in the Area from Poland to, lets say, Kyiv, would be an appropriate answer.

A no-fly zone west of Kyiv seems logical now to prevent another “accidental” Russian strike on NATO/EU territory. More air support for Ukraine and longer range missile systems may be in the cards now as well.

Playing devils advocate, do we want to have a potential situation put in place where NATO aircraft could end up shooting down Russian aircraft ?

I am all for supplying Ukraine with whatever they want/need, but there is a real chance at escalating the war by putting NATO forces over Ukraine.

bikerthai wrote:

jetwet1 wrote:

Playing devils advocate, do we want to have a potential situation put in place where NATO aircraft could end up shooting down Russian aircraft ?

When was rhe last time a Russian aircraft dared to venture west of KyIV.

A reasonable response would be air space buffer zone, say 40 Km from the Polish border over which any Russian missiles would be intercepted by NATO assets.

Ukraine would have to relinquish control of the buffer zone though, something that may be difficult to negotiate.

bt

fallap wrote:

no Russian combat aircraft has dared venturing west of Kyiv, so why the need for a no-fly zone that could potentially risk the outbreak of WW3?

GDB wrote:

I agree with this assessment, as of what we know now;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcvfHa ... TvbjKiX4sI

Vintage wrote:

fallap wrote:

no Russian combat aircraft has dared venturing west of Kyiv, so why the need for a no-fly zone that could potentially risk the outbreak of WW3?

Because Russian cruise missiles have ventured west of Kiev.

fallap wrote:

Vintage wrote:

fallap wrote:

no Russian combat aircraft has dared venturing west of Kyiv, so why the need for a no-fly zone that could potentially risk the outbreak of WW3?

Because Russian cruise missiles have ventured west of Kiev.

In that case we can donate additional SAM systems to the Ukrainian Military, perhaps roll out the PATRIOT system.

art wrote:

GDB wrote:

I agree with this assessment, as of what we know now;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcvfHa ... TvbjKiX4sI

I agree as well.

One of the mooted responses is more weapons to Ukraine. Why don't we throw all weapons we are prepared to supply now instead of this gradual ramping up of weapons we have been seeing? I want to see Ukraine to be given as big an equipment advantage as possible as soon as possible.

par13del wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Let's all agree to not call it a war, even though we all know it's a war. Let's agree to not call it a war because wars are bad things and we don't want to admit we do bad things. Let's call it a military action, that makes it sound more like a parade than invading another country, killing, ****ing and destroying as we go.

The reason why educated politicians fight over such wording is because we are all raised and live our lives under government directives / directions. So if the western governments officially declare it a Special Operation, the bulk of citizens will use that term. As we know history is written by the victors, so it may seem silly, but is China trying to fool folks or looking long term?

China is cautious about using the word “war” out of sympathy with Russia’s position and dislikes seeing the United States strengthen its alliances in response to the conflict, said Ren Xiao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Ren added that Russia’s diplomatic importance to China makes it impossible to interrupt normal economic relations between the two countries. “China will not deliberately alienate Russia to move closer to the United States and Europe,” he said.

fallap wrote:

In that case we can donate additional SAM systems to the Ukrainian Military, perhaps roll out the PATRIOT system.

Vintage wrote:

[The best defense against cruise missiles would be area defense, as offered by supersonic aircraft.

prebennorholm wrote:

One defense against cruise missiles, which isn't talked much about, is jamming of their navigation system.

Today's incident i Poland could easily be caused by successful jamming of Russian cruise missiles, which were programmed for targets within Ukraine.

Trere is little doubt that for all the most weapon technically advanced NATO countries and their weapon manufacturers the Ruzzski War is an on site laboratory for development of cruise missile jamming. Poland is the natural major physical location for such laboratory work.

Such work is of course by nature top secret, so we will never hear about it.

The only thing we hear about that is our news reporters in Ukraine "complaining" that GPS navigation in their cars is sometimes rather "challenging".

dampfnudel wrote:

Biden said that it’s unlikely the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia.

https://apnews.com/25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8

marcelh wrote:

dampfnudel wrote:

Biden said that it’s unlikely the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia.

https://apnews.com/25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8

Does it also exclude Belarus? Or are these Ukrainian launched SAMs which missed their target and unfortunately just landed over the border? IMHO Russia has nothing to gain by provoking NATO. It’s way more effective to create a new wave of refugees from Ukraine to the west by destroying critical infrastructure. Refugees are much more effective in undermining the support for Ukraine than a missile which landed just over the border.

GDB wrote:

The response should be a ramping up of support with AD systems, those recently retired Rapiers for instance, all the concerns about using expensive missiles against cheap drones does not count when using missiles that were likely to be eventually dismantled anyway.
This could apply to other systems too.

bikerthai wrote:

fallap wrote:

In that case we can donate additional SAM systems to the Ukrainian Military, perhaps roll out the PATRIOT system.

It's a numbers game. The more assets you have the fewer chances that a missile can get through.

You can donate more, but it takes time for training.

At a drop of the hat, you can have NATO assets cover the border region and the Ukrainian can move their assets toward the east.

bt

fallap wrote:

A de-facto no-fly zone already exists since any violation of Polish airspace would be intercepted by the Polish Air Force.

prebennorholm wrote:

Vintage wrote:

[The best defense against cruise missiles would be area defense, as offered by supersonic aircraft.

One defense against cruise missiles, which isn't talked much about, is jamming of their navigation system.

Today's incident i Poland could easily be caused by successful jamming of Russian cruise missiles, which were programmed for targets within Ukraine.

Trere is little doubt that for all the most weapon technically advanced NATO countries and their weapon manufacturers the Ruzzski War is an on site laboratory for development of cruise missile jamming. Poland is the natural major physical location for such laboratory work.

Such work is of course by nature top secret, so we will never hear about it.

The only thing we hear about that is our news reporters in Ukraine "complaining" that GPS navigation in their cars is sometimes rather "challenging".

art wrote:

fallap wrote:

A de-facto no-fly zone already exists since any violation of Polish airspace would be intercepted by the Polish Air Force.

Did not stop this missile, though, did it? I believe that the farm concerned is about 4 miles from the border. At a speed of 600mph that missile have would have spent 24 secs in Poland before exploding. 24 secs does not give much time for the Polish Air Force to intercept a missile, launch an AAM at it and for the AAM to reach its target.

fallap wrote:

art wrote:

fallap wrote:

A de-facto no-fly zone already exists since any violation of Polish airspace would be intercepted by the Polish Air Force.

Did not stop this missile, though, did it? I believe that the farm concerned is about 4 miles from the border. At a speed of 600mph that missile have would have spent 24 secs in Poland before exploding. 24 secs does not give much time for the Polish Air Force to intercept a missile, launch an AAM at it and for the AAM to reach its target.

If NATO wants to enact 24/7 CAP patrols near Ukraine, within Polish/NATO airspace, to prevent similar events in the future, then fine with me. But I am firmly against the idea of NATO aircrafts flying patrols inside Ukrainian airspace, as it would de-facto make NATO an active belligerent in the conflict.

art wrote:

fallap wrote:

art wrote:

Did not stop this missile, though, did it? I believe that the farm concerned is about 4 miles from the border. At a speed of 600mph that missile have would have spent 24 secs in Poland before exploding. 24 secs does not give much time for the Polish Air Force to intercept a missile, launch an AAM at it and for the AAM to reach its target.

If NATO wants to enact 24/7 CAP patrols near Ukraine, within Polish/NATO airspace, to prevent similar events in the future, then fine with me. But I am firmly against the idea of NATO aircrafts flying patrols inside Ukrainian airspace, as it would de-facto make NATO an active belligerent in the conflict.

What would you think about fighters or SAM's in Poland launching against incoming missiles while they are still in Ukrainian airspace? The only way to stop them entering Polish airspace is to destroy them before they get there.