Look who's stirring again;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

Update on the drone attack on the intel ship;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp9cBjavGZA

United 24 on the formation of a well known unit and it's founder;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IkH-nR7sEI

Mixing old and new on the front line and more on Wagner creating issues;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnQdseqFjj0

GDB wrote:

Update on the drone attack on the intel ship;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp9cBjavGZA

That's an unusually clear clip, and very dramatic.

It's almost unnatural to see such a big explosion from what was presumably a single 30mm round, but of course, that was the explosive warhead of the naval drone going off. I guess the tiny explosive charge in the 30mm was enough to either trigger the fuse, or perhaps directly set off the charge.

iamlucky13 wrote:

such a big explosion from what was presumably a single 30mm round, but of course, that was the explosive warhead of the naval drone going off. I

Typically there are multiple rounds not visible in between the tracer rounds.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

iamlucky13 wrote:

such a big explosion from what was presumably a single 30mm round, but of course, that was the explosive warhead of the naval drone going off. I

Typically there are multiple rounds not visible in between the tracer rounds.

bt

Right, but running the video at reduced speed, I didn't see any other impacts, and the tracer has nearly reached the drone in one frame before it explodes in the next frame. Even at 30 frames per second, there should be several frames between rounds.

Also, looking up photos of the Ivan Khurs, I don't see any 30mm mounts, so it might actually have just been a 14.5mm round (non-explosive) that set it off. I do see what looks like four heavy machine guns in the photos.

JonesNL wrote:

Lavrov warns: “Seizure of Russian nukes by Russians in Belgorod oblast creates immense risk of nuclear civil war in Russia.“

So;
2021: Russia Might Nuke Ukraine
2022: Russia WILL Nuke Ukraine!
2023: Russia Might Nuke Russia...

Not sure if the statement is true, but I found it the rhetoric fitting compared to their previous comment and Russian history…

I suppose Putin could pull the ultimate reverse UNO card and nuke his own citizens.

I bet that will send a warning to Ukraine and the rest of the world.

Not that it should happen, but if it does, does the rest of the world ignore it?

GDB wrote:

Look who's stirring again;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

Does somebody has a link to the long interview Prigozhin gave?

I have the feeling we are on the verge of something big.

From French TV and Euronews I gather he said a few thing:

• Confirmation 20k dead Wagner troops in Bachmut (half ex prisoners, half "regular"
• War goals are a big fail: 1) denazification: Since we started our attack Ukraine is as famous as Greek and Rome, the entire world knows Ukraine. 2) demilitarisation: before we attacked they had 500 tanks now they have 5000, before they bearly had 20'000 god soldiers now the have 400'000.
• Some strange rambling about nukes. Something like "if you have a disagreement with you neighbor you can punch him. But if you just come and split is head with an axe it's something different. We can't use nuclear now, we must win conventionally. Nukes had to be used earlier now is too late:
• Ukraine can take back Crimea, it's possible.
• Big rant about the elites, their kids more precisely. Something like "They are all in Dubai shacking their a** in the sun. Send your kids to the front. People burying their sons, fathers will think it is fair now. If you don't we'll have a revolution like in 17. First soldiers will raise, than their loved ones. And don't be mistaken we will have to bury over 100k men.
• Says Russia must be Nord Korea for a few years.

YouTube in French
https://youtu.be/WB2o9M-VR_s

Does he want general mobilisation? Does he ask the elites if they really want general mobilisation? Does he ask if the Russian people want general mobilisation?

Best regards and hoping Ukraine is free soon,
Jonas

GDB wrote:

Look who's stirring again;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

Update on the drone attack on the intel ship;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp9cBjavGZA

United 24 on the formation of a well known unit and it's founder;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IkH-nR7sEI

Mixing old and new on the front line and more on Wagner creating issues;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnQdseqFjj0

Looks like a Global Hawk has been making a bit of air time.

A summary of recent German packages, reporting indicates the Leo 1's are imminent, some of the radars already in place and AD systems shifting a gear in delivery rate, production surge?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... t41elCwo8e

Speaking of AD systems, more of these will be useful for the main offensive;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtcz8wZicAc

With the most restrictive arms exports rules in the world, Japan is very limited, however;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... 5wmwIjHjS3

JonesNL wrote:

Lavrov warns: “Seizure of Russian nukes by Russians in Belgorod oblast creates immense risk of nuclear civil war in Russia.“

So;
2021: Russia Might Nuke Ukraine
2022: Russia WILL Nuke Ukraine!
2023: Russia Might Nuke Russia...

Not sure if the statement is true, but I found it the rhetoric fitting compared to their previous comment and Russian history…

I'm surprised Russia is even mentioning these nukes, isn't that the ultimate weakness, not being able to prevent an enemy seizing your nukes ?

If that happens, there is no reason for a nuclear civil war, it would be better if Ukraine gets hold of them and get to a "nuclear stalemate" where it's really not an option anymore (if it ever was one).

https://twitter.com/bjcaffe/status/1661326605816418305

This is the first time I have seen this clip of John McCain in late 2014 predicting where the situation in Ukraine was headed. It's going to be interesting to read all the books and articles that are going to be published analyzing the run up to this war describing all the missed opportunities that could have averted this catastrophe. It feels that the US, the EU, and Ukraine made serious errors and miscalculations dealing with Russia that led us to this moment. I do wonder if different politicians had been at the helm, would things have turned out differently ?

alberchico wrote:

https://twitter.com/bjcaffe/status/1661326605816418305

This is the first time I have seen this clip of John McCain in late 2014 predicting where the situation in Ukraine was headed. It's going to be interesting to read all the books and articles that are going to be published analyzing the run up to this war describing all the missed opportunities that could have averted this catastrophe. It feels that the US, the EU, and Ukraine made serious errors and miscalculations dealing with Russia that led us to this moment. I do wonder if different politicians had been at the helm, would things have turned out differently ?

Don't hide the elephant behind the mouse. There's one politician in particular, who got exactly the 'special military operation' he asked for, without whom things would have turned out much differently.

Newark727 wrote:

alberchico wrote:

https://twitter.com/bjcaffe/status/1661326605816418305

This is the first time I have seen this clip of John McCain in late 2014 predicting where the situation in Ukraine was headed. It's going to be interesting to read all the books and articles that are going to be published analyzing the run up to this war describing all the missed opportunities that could have averted this catastrophe. It feels that the US, the EU, and Ukraine made serious errors and miscalculations dealing with Russia that led us to this moment. I do wonder if different politicians had been at the helm, would things have turned out differently ?

Don't hide the elephant behind the mouse. There's one politician in particular, who got exactly the 'special military operation' he asked for, without whom things would have turned out much differently.

The guy who was impeached over withholding military aid to a then-time unknown country?

Wagner leaving Bakhmut...

Prigozhin said regular Russian troops would replace his fighters as they pull out of the town.

"We are withdrawing the units from Bakhmut. From today at five in the morning, May 25 until June 1, most of the units will rebase to camps in the rear. We are handing our positions to the military," he said.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslond ... 6d50&ei=13

art wrote:

most of the units will rebase to camps in the rear

I like the idea of basing them nicely together. Makes for a more efficient use of HIMARS.

In regards to the Su-57, I see some comments here which are not entirely accurate.

Until the end of 2022 there have been 10 flying prototypes/pre-production airframes and 6-7 production Su-57. There haven't been two write-offs, just one. And that is the crash of the first production aircraft in December 2019. In 2015 one of the prototypes caught fire during a demo flight and needed extensive repairs, but it was eventually returned to service. Perhaps that is the second "write-off" some people mistakenly think about. But, from the information that is available only 5 series production aircraft were delivered by the end of 2022. This is a small number. First, it is fully possible that they are flying in support of the Russian forces but only flying within Russian airspace and lobbing long range rockets. Second, the number operational is indeed still small. Third, all series production examples are still either with the test unit in Ahtubinsk or with the training center in Lipetsk. There are to this day no Su-57 delivered to any front line regiment. Ahtubinsk and Lipetsk aircraft are all developing combat usage and training tactics, as well as integrating new technologies and exploring the flight envelope.

Russia has announced that it has nationalised Volodymyr Zelensky’s holiday home on Crimea’s Black Sea coast and plans to sell the property to fund its invasion of Ukraine.

The Russia-installed leader of Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, on Thursday recorded a video, announcing the local legislature’s decision to nationalise 57 properties that used to belong to Ukrainian tycoons and public figures.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/r ... cc48&ei=21

I wonder where they got that idea.

art wrote:

Russia has announced that it has nationalised Volodymyr Zelensky’s holiday home on Crimea’s Black Sea coast and plans to sell the property to fund its invasion of Ukraine.

The Russia-installed leader of Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, on Thursday recorded a video, announcing the local legislature’s decision to nationalise 57 properties that used to belong to Ukrainian tycoons and public figures.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/r ... cc48&ei=21

I wonder where they got that idea.

I think Zelensky has bigger issues on his mind than the status of his vacation home.

When he takes back Crimea, he can evict whomever is stupid enough to pay money for the place.

Till then, it seems he's welcome in London, Paris, Tokyo, etc while the leader of the RF is in a bunker somewhere.

Off he goes again, just what Russia needs when facing an imminent offensive;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... in-bakhmut

A bit more on that and other issues, this General had been warning about Russia for years;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-d-qqiiPoY

On reparations, freezing of assets;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... to-ukraine

Looks like confirmation that one drone hit that intel ship;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZETa0ZJc4I

From the sea, to a FPV destroying a Russian drone in the air;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZvHi800K3c

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

Russia has announced that it has nationalised Volodymyr Zelensky’s holiday home on Crimea’s Black Sea coast and plans to sell the property to fund its invasion of Ukraine.

The Russia-installed leader of Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, on Thursday recorded a video, announcing the local legislature’s decision to nationalise 57 properties that used to belong to Ukrainian tycoons and public figures.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/r ... cc48&ei=21

I wonder where they got that idea.

I think Zelensky has bigger issues on his mind than the status of his vacation home.

When he takes back Crimea, he can evict whomever is stupid enough to pay money for the place.

Till then, it seems he's welcome in London, Paris, Tokyo, etc while the leader of the RF is in a bunker somewhere.

I was alluding to the fact that the local legislature in Crimea is doing just what the West has been doing.

Indeed, anyone buying a nationalised property may not own it for long.

art wrote:

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/r ... cc48&ei=21

I wonder where they got that idea.

I think Zelensky has bigger issues on his mind than the status of his vacation home.

When he takes back Crimea, he can evict whomever is stupid enough to pay money for the place.

Till then, it seems he's welcome in London, Paris, Tokyo, etc while the leader of the RF is in a bunker somewhere.

I was alluding to the fact that the local legislature in Crimea is doing just what the West has been doing.

Indeed, anyone buying a nationalised property may not own it for long.

There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property, and Selenky doesn't have to worry about his vacation home because all of Crimea will soon be his

oldJoe wrote:

There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property, and Selenky doesn't have to worry about his vacation home because all of Crimea will soon be his

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

In Russia the line between state and oligarchs can be blurry, but I do believe that qualifies as private property commandeered by the west.

art wrote:

I was alluding to the fact that the local legislature in Crimea is doing just what the West has been doing.

Lots of 'turnabout is fair play' going around lately, like Russia being invaded with calls for a referendum for the local citizens, calls for outsiders to not get involved, calls for the Chinese to mediate, calls to give land in exchange for peace, etc.

petertenthije wrote:

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

Real estate, yes. Yachts,

Those multi million $$ yachts are not standard products. They are all unique an made to design specification of the owner. Nobody would ever shell out millions to have a yacht which is identical to someone else's yacht, or to something on which he didn't participate in design.

And certainly, no sensible person would ever buy a Russian oligarch yacht at an auction, when he, while using it, might meet the Russian Navy on the sea.

I for myself will never get closer than a quarter mile or so to any such Russian yacht moored outside Russian control. Getting too close could one day be very dangerous.

My guess: One day those yachts will be silently auctioned off. At an undisclosed price which is way less than ten percent of what they cost to build. Then they will be scrapped. High value equipment such as engines and many other things will be reused in new built ships, ferries, large trawlers and such.

"I am happy that finally the training of the pilots for the F-16 has started in several countries. It will take time, but the sooner the better," Borrell said at a meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels.

"For example in Poland," he said when asked to specify where it had begun. Poland, a neighbor to Ukraine and one of its staunchest supporters, has said for months it is ready to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-f ... a-65705291

So what stopped Poland starting to train Ukrainian pilots months ago?

art wrote:

So what stopped Poland starting to train Ukrainian pilots months ago?

Training for ITAR hardware is also covered under ITAR regulation. So, the US would need to approve a new ITAR license for Ukraine before anyone is allowed to train them.

bt

petertenthije wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property, and Selenky doesn't have to worry about his vacation home because all of Crimea will soon be his

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

In Russia the line between state and oligarchs can be blurry, but I do believe that qualifies as private property commandeered by the west.

What is fair here??? Oligarchs who are swimming in money or can paper their walls with banknotes or children and women and the elderly who are literally slaughtered in Ukraine??? Just a reminder: On the premises of the theater in Mariupol it was clearly written "Children" on the street, which didn't stop the Russians from bombing it. If that's fair, I don't know how to define fair

Revelation wrote:

art wrote:

I was alluding to the fact that the local legislature in Crimea is doing just what the West has been doing.

Lots of 'turnabout is fair play' going around lately, like Russia being invaded with calls for a referendum for the local citizens, calls for outsiders to not get involved, calls for the Chinese to mediate, calls to give land in exchange for peace, etc.

Indeed!
Not to mention that "local legislature in Crimea" under Russian occupation, is as legit as a "legislative body in Sudetenland" in 1939-1944, or "legislative body in Belgium in 1940-1944". Yeah, it can pretend it can legislate, and of course it can pass resolutions for theft and murder -- as invaders do. Doesn't make it legal, nor does it make "legislators" immune from prosecution.

prebennorholm wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

Real estate, yes. Yachts,

Those multi million $$ yachts are not standard products. They are all unique an made to design specification of the owner. Nobody would ever shell out millions to have a yacht which is identical to someone else's yacht, or to something on which he didn't participate in design.

And certainly, no sensible person would ever buy a Russian oligarch yacht at an auction, when he, while using it, might meet the Russian Navy on the sea.

I for myself will never get closer than a quarter mile or so to any such Russian yacht moored outside Russian control. Getting too close could one day be very dangerous.

My guess: One day those yachts will be silently auctioned off. At an undisclosed price which is way less than ten percent of what they cost to build. Then they will be scrapped. High value equipment such as engines and many other things will be reused in new built ships, ferries, large trawlers and such.

And this is something I find very strange.
Prize law is a thing for centuries. Captured enemy merchant vessels, prior to capture, were (nearly) ALWAYS private, and (nearly) ALWAYS owned by very wealthy individuals and families, with very strong connection to their government/king/prince/whatever. Never stopped participants, once hostilities started, to capture each other's private property on the high seas, with abandon.

All of this remains on the books, and prize/admiralty courts always established a clear break between owners before capture, and post-auction owners; previous owners had no redress against vessel or new owners.
Hague Conventions even provide for an International Prize Court, but with only one ratification of that chapter (Nicaragua), that is somehow dormant.
So what's wrong with auctioning off this luxury property, if only for parts? I mean, RMS Olympic interiors still grace a hotel someplace, what's wrong with repurposing some of those interiors (with a clear loss of "yacht-specific" share of the value) for hotels and lounges someplace?
Also, jurisdiction of capture --- and allegiance of the capturing crew, can be shopped for. Many places have killed the practice of sharing out the prize money to the capturing crews -- but not all. Private interest is a great motivator.

oldJoe wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property, and Selenky doesn't have to worry about his vacation home because all of Crimea will soon be his

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

In Russia the line between state and oligarchs can be blurry, but I do believe that qualifies as private property commandeered by the west.

What is fair here??? Oligarchs who are swimming in money or can paper their walls with banknotes or children and women and the elderly who are literally slaughtered in Ukraine??? Just a reminder: On the premises of the theater in Mariupol it was clearly written "Children" on the street, which didn't stop the Russians from bombing it. If that's fair, I don't know how to define fair

Don’t get me wrong, I am no fan of the oligarchs.

What I meant was in regards to the statement “There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property” when you were talking about Zelensky’s summer house being taken over.

How is the west taking over Oligarch’s assets any different from Russia taking over Zelensky’s summer house? Other then Zelensky being on our side, and (most of) the oligarchs being on the other side?

Just pointing out the hypocracy here on THIS specific subject.

You’re welcome to review my post history. You won’t find me defending Russia anywhere, but neither will I absolve or ignore our own issues. Even though clearly they pale in comparison to what the Russians are doing.

petertenthije wrote:

How is the west taking over Oligarch’s assets any different from Russia taking over Zelensky’s summer house? Other then Zelensky being on our side, and (most of) the oligarchs being on the other side?

Legitimacy flows from the internationally acknowledged territory of Ukraine and the illegality under international law of the russian invasion into it.

One wrinkle about seized russian assets is that at least so far there is no proper way to hand those over to Ukraine as reparations; So one school of thought is apparently right now to at least keep those assets locked down until there is a resolution of the conflict where reparations to Ukraine are settled.

It looks like the war damage registry (incidentally also just seated in the Hague!) will be one instrument to accumulate evidential substance on which such a settlement can be based, likely creating new standards of international war on the way – and clearly this implies that it would require ukrainian consent to get there!

And for Russia to get to that point will almost certainly need a regime change since this war is increasingly only in the interest of Putin himself, maybe some of his top military brass but certainly against the interests of Russia since Russia cannot win it; That much is increasingly obvious.

petertenthije wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

To be fair, various properties of Russian oligarchs have been seized and sold. Yachts, real estate etc.

In Russia the line between state and oligarchs can be blurry, but I do believe that qualifies as private property commandeered by the west.

What is fair here??? Oligarchs who are swimming in money or can paper their walls with banknotes or children and women and the elderly who are literally slaughtered in Ukraine??? Just a reminder: On the premises of the theater in Mariupol it was clearly written "Children" on the street, which didn't stop the Russians from bombing it. If that's fair, I don't know how to define fair

Don’t get me wrong, I am no fan of the oligarchs.

What I meant was in regards to the statement “There's a big difference between a national property and a stolen property” when you were talking about Zelensky’s summer house being taken over.

How is the west taking over Oligarch’s assets any different from Russia taking over Zelensky’s summer house? Other then Zelensky being on our side, and (most of) the oligarchs being on the other side?

Just pointing out the hypocracy here on THIS specific subject.

You’re welcome to review my post history. You won’t find me defending Russia anywhere, but neither will I absolve or ignore our own issues. Even though clearly they pale in comparison to what the Russians are doing.

To start: I am someone who at least reads all the posts before I give my two cents! Disagreement is a foundation of a forum. ( thanks A.Net )
But for me there is a huge difference between illegally occupying land and selling some of it and an aggressor whose rich think they can screw us? By the way: I was lucky that I wasn't already lying in the cemetery like some Russians planned

Klaus wrote:

petertenthije wrote:

How is the west taking over Oligarch’s assets any different from Russia taking over Zelensky’s summer house? Other then Zelensky being on our side, and (most of) the oligarchs being on the other side?

Legitimacy flows from the internationally acknowledged territory of Ukraine and the illegality under international law of the russian invasion into it.

One wrinkle about seized russian assets is that at least so far there is no proper way to hand those over to Ukraine as reparations; So one school of thought is apparently right now to at least keep those assets locked down until there is a resolution of the conflict where reparations to Ukraine are settled.

It looks like the war damage registry (incidentally also just seated in the Hague!) will be one instrument to accumulate evidential substance on which such a settlement can be based, likely creating new standards of international war on the way – and clearly this implies that it would require ukrainian consent to get there!

And for Russia to get to that point will almost certainly need a regime change since this war is increasingly only in the interest of Putin himself, maybe some of his top military brass but certainly against the interests of Russia since Russia cannot win it; That much is increasingly obvious.

There is no current way now, but there were templates in the past:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_w ... ct_of_1917
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of ... _Custodian
Is how assets were secured.
Floating things (ships), all clearly private, were subject to capture too, like this fellow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Aeolus_(ID-3005)

How to hand over stuff from current holders to victims: Holocaust compensations by Germany and Swiss banking system are an example, and you don't need to wait 70 years.

For liquid assets, auctioning off as prizes, and then providing cash as in "aid program", could be an easy way out.

Even if Russia is now playing tit-for-tat, I still think confiscating Russian oligarch property is the right call. Hypocrisy or no, in practical terms this war has to be made into a huge step backward for everyone within even a whiff of power in Russia (just like it is for the average Russian who had no say in the matter.) And given that they made their money in a state like Putin's Russia, we can't assume that the yachts and luxury cars and apartments have been paid for with clean money. There's private property and then there's stolen goods.

Clarifications:

Klaus wrote:

One wrinkle about seized russian assets is that at least so far there is no proper way to hand those over to Ukraine as reparations;

Of course this means legally proper – that it would be morally justified has a pretty wide consensus, but no legal force, at least not yet.

likely creating new standards of international war

international law, of course!

Phosphorus wrote:

There is no current way now, but there were templates in the past:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_w ... ct_of_1917
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of ... _Custodian
Is how assets were secured.
Floating things (ships), all clearly private, were subject to capture too, like this fellow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Aeolus_(ID-3005)

How to hand over stuff from current holders to victims: Holocaust compensations by Germany and Swiss banking system are an example, and you don't need to wait 70 years.

The difference is just that the USA was a party to the war and that the war ultimately ended with a complete surrender.

Post-WWII Germany was under the control of the allied occupation powers so there was no serious contest even after the war ended and the new government was willing to engage with the settlement requests.

Right now Ukraine has clearly legitimate jurisdiction over all persons and assets on legitimate Ukrainian soil, so including Crimea and the Donbass – there are currently just some impediments to the application of this jurisdiction.

But at least the assets held by the sovereign russian state which are seized by non-combatant countries nominally enjoy certain protections which can't just be shoved aside without creating problematic precedents.

So the status quo seems to be that these countries keep them frozen (basically in escrow) until they can either be released to Russia or get transferred to Ukraine under a due process which would preferably be consensus between Russia and Ukraine (a negotiated reparations settlement) or adjudicated by an acknowledged international court (which would be tricky if Russia refused to cooperate).

For liquid assets, auctioning off as prizes, and then providing cash as in "aid program", could be an easy way out.

Perfectly justifiable morally, to be sure, just the legal side will probably need some more work...

The following article is mainly about the use of (satellite guided?) glide bombs by the Russians but it alludes briefly to the "glide bombs" (I understand JDAMs) supplied by the USA to Ukraine. It states that:

Ukrainian pilots also have a few dozen glide bombs provided by the United States, but they have struggled with them, according to documents allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira, the Air National Guardsman implicated in a vast disclosure of classified material. The Russians have figured out how to jam the guidance systems, the classified documents said, and several Ukrainian bombs have missed their target.

Is there no way to provide Ukraine with similar jamming capabilities as the Russians have? Or are we seeing the results of the Ukrainians jamming the Russian bombs which then fall on random locations? In any case, it's clear that AMRAAM-equipped F-16s could provide a deterrence capability that the Ukrainians currently lack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/world/europe/russia-ukraine-soviet-bombs.html

Reports of multiple explosions in the occupied cities of Bakhmut, Mariupol, Sevastopol, Berdyansk:

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/statu ... 5909304320

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 4471274496

A depressingly familiar pattern of behavior;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... nic-dnipro

More Ukrainian innovation, putting something to use with an unusual application;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-soldiers

The Cannes Film Festival might be an odd and ironic place to document the experiences of those having to escape from an invasion, nevertheless;
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/m ... -to-safety

Speaking of glide bombs, the uploader acknowledged he mis titled this video, it shows parachute dropped unguided bombs, from a platform that is supposed to be one of the newer, so therefore premier carrier, of smart munitions. Another weakness exposed by the incursion into Russia?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6JiBXNL6_0

And some new though not conclusive new info on the Russian Intel ship;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF8IviRjrmM

tomcat wrote:

The following article is mainly about the use of (satellite guided?) glide bombs by the Russians but it alludes briefly to the "glide bombs" (I understand JDAMs) supplied by the USA to Ukraine. It states that:

Ukrainian pilots also have a few dozen glide bombs provided by the United States, but they have struggled with them, according to documents allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira, the Air National Guardsman implicated in a vast disclosure of classified material. The Russians have figured out how to jam the guidance systems, the classified documents said, and several Ukrainian bombs have missed their target.

Is there no way to provide Ukraine with similar jamming capabilities as the Russians have? Or are we seeing the results of the Ukrainians jamming the Russian bombs which then fall on random locations? In any case, it's clear that AMRAAM-equipped F-16s could provide a deterrence capability that the Ukrainians currently lack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/world/europe/russia-ukraine-soviet-bombs.html

It is possible for Ukraine to also jam GLONASS signals with the right equipment. What they have asked for in this regards, and what among that has been granted, is not clear. The State Department page summarizing US material assistance simply says, "Electronic jamming equipment" without further detail:

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-coop ... h-ukraine/

Keep in mind that jamming satellite positioning systems would not generally be expected to cause a wild miss for either side, but a reduction in accuracy proportionate to how far from the target the munition lost guidance. Additionally, my understanding is JDAM, GMLRS, and perhaps also the Russian guided glide bombs, have an inertial navigation system complementing the satellite guidance. Inertial navigation alone would not be as accurate as adding satellite correction, but far more accurate than unguided trajectories.

More sophisticated than jamming is GPS spoofing, which involves transmitting fake GPS signals to cause a receiver to think it is in a different location than reality. This is not new. Iran allegedly used spoofing to capture an RQ-170 stealth UAV back in 2011.

It has been reported at various points through the war that Russia has used it's electronic warfare capabilities fairly effectively against Ukraine, including not only jamming, but also intercepting Ukrainian communications. Early in the war, they had poor coordination with their own forces. They have reportedly improved significantly in terms of reducing the collateral they cause to their own communications, and in being responsive to actual Ukrainian operations, rather than operating at arbitrary times.

In addition to periodically disrupting JDAM and GMLRS accuracy, Russia's electronic warfare capabilities contribute to estimates that Ukraine is losing around 10,000 UAV's per month.

Interesting as always:

Why Ukraine Will Win: Interview with Gen. Ben Hodges

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=dsXNJlH-4iM

Another type of Smart 155mm munition, from Germany, in use;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1f_2LUHaNcE

Latest Canadian donation, the AIM-9s are much more likely reload rounds for NASAMS than for any F-16 application;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... PQ_pQiyUuU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS

However, not sure of the significance of this other than a plan 'b' perhaps?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCX-xHR ... xdsqBqZhAZ

Klaus wrote:

Interesting as always:

Why Ukraine Will Win: Interview with Gen. Ben Hodges

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=dsXNJlH-4iM

Will power, his first sentence says it all, strongly motivated individuals against just the opposite. Interesting to watch.

We keep hearing, from Russia, about threats of escalation.
There is, as we have seen in several incidents, incompetence from Russian aircrews, the missile fired near a RAF Intel aircraft, the drone strike more recently, if something like that does turn serious here is a likely place;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65673272

Addressing the hidden scars of prolonged conflict;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65418075

When a dictator is out to erase your entire culture;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ng-stories

A Grad BM-21 system gets a severe 'downgrad'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze8nQ18V_EM

And back to the Tank Museum, doing what they can to evaluate the T-14 tank, it's path to development in the context of Soviet then Russian tank design, if it will be actually seen in operation;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfCG0bNxVL4

Putin may lose it all by going all-in for Ukraine, a quick interesting read from the Australian strategic Policy Institute.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/putin ... r-ukraine/

Interview with senior Ukraine defence official;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65725004

Challenger 2 vs Dragons Teeth;
https://www.newsweek.com/video-russia-u ... th-1802876

A business relocated and with a new mission;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgwIFnP6oSg

T-90 gets drone dropped;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au3GIL4pVEM

Satellite images of Sevastopol, Intel ship update;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4tarhtTFA4

More drone strikes, hopefully later in the day we will get updates on whether the damaged Patriot batteries are / were back online, initial report is mostly falling debris damage.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65736730

GDB wrote:

Interview with senior Ukraine defence official;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65725004

Challenger 2 vs Dragons Teeth;
https://www.newsweek.com/video-russia-u ... th-1802876

A business relocated and with a new mission;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgwIFnP6oSg

T-90 gets drone dropped;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au3GIL4pVEM

Satellite images of Sevastopol, Intel ship update;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4tarhtTFA4

"If there are Dragons teeth, then there must be a Dragons dentist" ...
Pretty cool response.. I liked it

Rgds

Perun is back to the Ukraine war this week. Going in depth on the long range aspect, given new attention with the delivery and use of Storm Shadow. With an overview of the systems deployed by both sides initially, how HIMARS/M720 changed things and how the longer range systems, their use and countermeasures have evolved so far and what might come next;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVNjqX5HQGQ

Interesting video on combined arms breach.

https://youtu.be/ZZ-sCT_maAQ

No wonder the Russian could not master the complex process and rely strictly on mass destruction using artilery.

Hopefully the Ukrainians are up to the task.


bt

I like how everything happens AFTER air superiority has been achieved so the F-16 and supporting fires can take out the local air defenses, has to be primarily an Army document. If they have air superiority have a couple a/c drop some fuel air bombs over the mine fields.
Ukraine may be the proving ground for such being able to be undertaken under the cover of SAM's with little to no air cover especially from helicopters, as I don't think Ukraine has the time to wait until they have sufficient F-16's to clear the skies.