A general note for awareness, and some additional thoughts of mine (obviously I'm not privy to Ukrainian plans):
The locations Ukraine currently appears to have advanced through near Velyka Novosilka are not Russia's main line of defense. Attempts to map Russian defensive preparations using commercial satellite imagery appear to show most of the fortifications 15+ kilometers behind the front line. That distance gives them some time to attempt to man those defenses in response to Ukrainian attacks in a specific area, and keeps them out of direct observation from the ground, and out of range of conventional artillery unless it were firing close enough to the front line to be well within the range of counterbattery fire.
What Ukraine is likely encountering yesterday and today is forward defensive outposts, hidden in tree lines and other areas with cover. These positions allow defense against small attacks, and could slow a major attack by forcing them to deploy to clear out these positions, but would not be expected to stop a major attack.
In most locations, there is probably a first defensive line a few kilometers behind these forward outposts, but the main defenses are several kilometers further behind that first line. The main defensive line can include anti-vehicle trenches, mine fields, and dragon's teeth to slow down attackers, followed by a line or multiple lines of trenches for infantry, and prepared positions with good sight lines for tanks, BMP's, anti-tank guns, or ATGM teams.
Russia would likely intend identify a major attack beginning using the forward outposts, blunt it with the first line of defense, and stop it with the main line. Ideally, a successful defense would be followed shortly by a counterattack using reserves to regain that first line and the forward outposts before the attacking force can recover from their offensive work.
Ukraine's goal, therefore, would likely involve keeping more substantial forces in reserve, including their main breaching elements, until they approach those main lines of defense. Of course, if this is not their planned main axis of advance, they may simply advance part way to the main line of defense to force Russia to concentrate more troops there, before striking somewhere else.
A more detailed description of similar defensive lines known to have been built by Russia in Southern Ukraine is in the first link, and a really solid effort at mapping Russia's defenses is in the second link.
https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/16 ... vO6PktAAAAhttps://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian- ... in-ukraineBraybuddy wrote:GDB wrote:
One Russian milblogger is saying the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians out of Novodonetsk, which is about 6km behind the frontline:
I spent a little bit of time trying to piece together the various bits of information coming out, and noticed the report that Novodonetsk was 6 km behind the front line is mistaken. From reviewing ISW's maps, including their handy interactive archive map, the furthest Russia had advanced past Novodonetsk was about 2 km.
Around May 11, Ukraine conducted small scale attacks in that area that pushed the line back to the Shaitanka River, which is only 500 meters from Novodonetsk.
https://understandingwar.org/background ... ay-11-2023With that said, Rybar's map currently shows a pocket west of Novodonetsk that extends further south than the settlement, and it's possible that reflects an advance of 6 km. Since the map will be based on early reports and images, it is possible the actual extent of Ukraine's advance is lesser or greater than shown. I tend to suspect it is greater.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Novodonetsk?src=hashtag_click
FYI, since Twitter recently decided to block non-members from searching, this specific link only directs to a log-in page for non-members. Members should be able to reach the intended hashtag search.
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