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pune
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bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:07 pm

There was a thread where I had shared what Mr. Munro had talked about, bankruptcies by legacy auto. Most are unwilling to believe it even though their debts and other things tell the story by themselves -

https://ibb.co/j3mjVJB

Now people by themselves can judge where legacy auto will stand in a few years from now
 
jetwet1
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:37 pm

There are going to be plenty of car makers going out of business over the next decade, 99% of them will be start ups trying to break into the EV market. Without the dealer and (in many ways more important) service network they will struggle .

I've been having a debate with coworkers over the reboot of Fisker. Great looking cars/SUV's. The price points are spot on, but, good luck in the US trying to get it fixed if something breaks. Their current idea is to have mobile techs, that's fine if something small breaks, but let's see a tech do a motor swap on a street corner.

My point is, the start ups may new able to sell some vehicles short term, but the short comings will catch up with them.

For the established manufactures, the development cost of new vehicles is huge, however borrowing money has been cheap for the last few years, they will be fine.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:55 pm

It won't be that dramatic. Like airlines, auto companies will CONSOLIDATE. They do not need to go bankrupt.

The auto supply firms will offer all the electric tech. Poorer automakers do not need to invent much. They can purchase electric drive components just like they purchase braking systems and AC compressors. These components are getting cheaper every year.
 
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T18
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:42 pm

Imo the firms likely to fail in the next 10 years, Rivian, Lotus and Mitsubishi (auto not MHI). I also suspect some brands may vanish or consolidate, I don't think Buick will endure in the US much longer and expect something goofy to occur with Tesla in the next 10 years, be it a buy out and re-brand, a merger or just start to become a small niche brand like Rolls or Alpina as the Big3, VAG, Toyota and Honda start to get affordable EVs on the market and begin to create better value competition
 
ACDC8
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:41 pm

The big auto manufacturers have nothing to worry about, they'll be around a lot longer than the Tesla fanboys seem to think.

Auto manufactures have been consolidating/merging for well over 100 years. I mean, just look at Chrysler - yeesh.
Last edited by ACDC8 on Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
ltbewr
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:58 pm

I agree that most of the new 'start up' companies will fail due to competition, overhead costs, tech differences, capital access and many consumers wanting to stick to existing brands. Major brands will substantially reduce the number of franchise dealerships, but will need them to do service. That is a huge weakness Tesla has in the USA.

We already see a lot of consolidation, joint ventures, common platform and tech use (especially with Hybrid, plug-in and full EV like Ford with VW Group). In Europe and other markets some major companies make the same light commercial vehicles (mainly vans) sold under several brand names. Some brands have been killed off like GM's Holden in Australia/NZ, shifting to other GM or related brands made in China/Asia.

Where I see the greatest amount of consideration will be in China. There are at least 8-9 major companies, including BYD, SAIC, some with joint ventures with the US, European, South Korean and Japanese vehicle makers and with dozens of brands.

We may also see some brands and vehicle makers, leave markets and shut down plants where doing poorly. Honda has shut down its plant in the UK, shifting production to Japan and USA/Canada. Suzuki will likely leave the UK/EU market soon as to cars (they left the USA/Canadian market in about 2011 as to cars, ended connections to GM, but continue to sell motorcycles) and concentrate on their strong market in India for cars and small SUV's. The Stellantis brands will likely and eventually just do more than at present 'badge engineering' on most models/brands, only keeping brands to satisfy certain national markets but the same vehicles. Likely Lancia will disappear as only one model sold in Italy. GM is keeping the Buick and Cadillac brands mainly for the China market, Chevrolet (and GMC light to medium truck brand) mainly in the US/Canada/Mexico market only. I doubt Mitsubishi will continue to make cars/SUVs, maybe the vehicle division of the company go into receivership (bankruptcy in Japan and likely shifting to badge versions of Renault-Nissan-Dacia brands they are connected with. Nissan has problems, especially in the NA market due to terrible issues with their CVT 'automatic' transmissions. Some brands, like Mazda will shift a bit upmarket and fewer car models, concentrating on CUV/SUV's small cars (2 & 3 series, likely the 6 series is dead) and working with Toyota, they have a new joint plant in Alabama, USA.
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:40 pm

The only one I know is Tesla which has been doing that, sharing patents apart from that don't know of another single player that has done it. I would love to be corrected on that.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

This idea that the big boys have nothing to worry about is what causes problems. Toyota (A Japanese car manufacturer) has asked BYD (A Chinese car manufacturer) to manufacture EVs for them. And I remember Toyota fanboys on another forum saying Toyota would be the biggest EV manufacturer but the opposite has opened.
 
QF7
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 6:41 am

pune wrote:
Toyota (A Japanese car manufacturer) has asked BYD (A Chinese car manufacturer) to manufacture EVs for them.


And this is a threat to the big boys how?

For being such a prolific poster on the subject you don’t seem to understand the industry very well. Companies contract with third-parties all the time to manufacture products for them. This is true in the automotive industry, the washing machine industry, pharmaceuticals, and on and on. If it makes more economic sense to hire someone else to do it than to do it yourself, then it will be done.

You also seem fixated on believing that Tesla is the future and all the legacy companies are doomed to failure and bankruptcy. Now it is certainly true that over the course of their histories the legacies have made some bone-headed decisions at times and that there have been some ups and downs but that doesn’t predict anything for the future with any certainty.

Just one little factoid to ponder. In 2020 Tesla sold about 79% of all fully electric vehicles in the U.S. In 2021 Tesla’s share declined to 72%. Total sales nearly doubled. Someone (or several someones) is growing both volume and market share quickly.
 
ACDC8
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:46 am

QF7 wrote:
For being such a prolific poster on the subject you don’t seem to understand the industry very well. Companies contract with third-parties all the time to manufacture products for them. This is true in the automotive industry, the washing machine industry, pharmaceuticals, and on and on. If it makes more economic sense to hire someone else to do it than to do it yourself, then it will be done.

He brought this very same thing up a couple of times now, its been explained to him by myself and others. Hopefully you explanation will finally click in and we won't have to go over the same topic over and over again.
 
B777LRF
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 9:10 am

The first mistake you made was taking “market cap” at face value. It’s anything but; it’s a largely irrelevant number either pumped up or beaten down by greedy idiots in trading houses.

Tesla is a perfect example - in the not very distant future their mediocre products will be eclipsed by long-established manufacturers, who actually know how to build a vehicle properly. I’m sure Tesla can live off its patents and, at least for a while, its battery factories. But as a producer of vehicles I predict they’ll be extinct within the next 10 years.
 
marcelh
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:07 am

B777LRF wrote:
The first mistake you made was taking “market cap” at face value. It’s anything but; it’s a largely irrelevant number either pumped up or beaten down by greedy idiots in trading houses.

Tesla is a perfect example - in the not very distant future their mediocre products will be eclipsed by long-established manufacturers, who actually know how to build a vehicle properly. I’m sure Tesla can live off its patents and, at least for a while, its battery factories. But as a producer of vehicles I predict they’ll be extinct within the next 10 years.


Exactly. Why should you buy a 1,020 HP Tesla model X Plaid for €120,000 instead of a Mercedes EQS 350 for less and with just more WLTP range?
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:28 am

This is quite simple.
EVs are taking over very quickly.
Quicker than any legacy car can adapt if they aren’t already.
Those in the lead a part from Tesla and the combined emerging efforts of the chinese EV-industry, are Hyundai/KIA, VW, Nissan that are all well in to mature EV products. Stellantis has a few promising models (Peugeot/Vauxhall/DS), even Toyota’s new EV is promising, although they are outsourcing most everything and are behind on the in-house transformation. GM are at the bottom of the heap for now. Blinded by an american-centric view on developments, which doesn’t paint the correct picture at all.

I have driven EVs for years, and know how different a bottom - up EV product is from someone that has just thrown a bunch of 3rd party fossil replacement parts together in close formation. NO ONE has gotten it right the first time.
And Tesla is still far ahead.

Living 5 years into the EV future, as we do in my country, I can tell you that Tesla is the best selling car brand, making all middle class neighborhoods a mixture of M3 and MY in black and white.
 
cpd
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:35 am

ACDC8 wrote:
The big auto manufacturers have nothing to worry about, they'll be around a lot longer than the Tesla fanboys seem to think.

Auto manufactures have been consolidating/merging for well over 100 years. I mean, just look at Chrysler - yeesh.


This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.

marcelh wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
The first mistake you made was taking “market cap” at face value. It’s anything but; it’s a largely irrelevant number either pumped up or beaten down by greedy idiots in trading houses.

Tesla is a perfect example - in the not very distant future their mediocre products will be eclipsed by long-established manufacturers, who actually know how to build a vehicle properly. I’m sure Tesla can live off its patents and, at least for a while, its battery factories. But as a producer of vehicles I predict they’ll be extinct within the next 10 years.


Exactly. Why should you buy a 1,020 HP Tesla model X Plaid for €120,000 instead of a Mercedes EQS 350 for less and with just more WLTP range?



Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:49 am

cpd wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
The big auto manufacturers have nothing to worry about, they'll be around a lot longer than the Tesla fanboys seem to think.

Auto manufactures have been consolidating/merging for well over 100 years. I mean, just look at Chrysler - yeesh.


This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.

marcelh wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
The first mistake you made was taking “market cap” at face value. It’s anything but; it’s a largely irrelevant number either pumped up or beaten down by greedy idiots in trading houses.

Tesla is a perfect example - in the not very distant future their mediocre products will be eclipsed by long-established manufacturers, who actually know how to build a vehicle properly. I’m sure Tesla can live off its patents and, at least for a while, its battery factories. But as a producer of vehicles I predict they’ll be extinct within the next 10 years.


Exactly. Why should you buy a 1,020 HP Tesla model X Plaid for €120,000 instead of a Mercedes EQS 350 for less and with just more WLTP range?



Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.

The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.
 
cpd
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:50 am

M564038 wrote:
cpd wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
The big auto manufacturers have nothing to worry about, they'll be around a lot longer than the Tesla fanboys seem to think.

Auto manufactures have been consolidating/merging for well over 100 years. I mean, just look at Chrysler - yeesh.


This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.

marcelh wrote:

Exactly. Why should you buy a 1,020 HP Tesla model X Plaid for €120,000 instead of a Mercedes EQS 350 for less and with just more WLTP range?



Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.

The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.


So say I needed to carry cargo to do deliveries, which Tesla model does that now? Surely being an innovator they can do that. Or are they just for the latte sipping elites?

I’ve looked at Tesla cars and don’t see what is so impressive about them design wise or from a fit and finish which was sub standard for the price.

And really, the best electric car or any car really is the one you don’t buy unless you really need it.
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 1:26 pm

I am not sure I understand your question? Are you talking about delivery vehicles? City trucks? I am talking about personal transport cars. By far the major part of the market. As for comercial vehicles, this city is fast filling up with chinese city buses, spanish trams, delivery vehicles are electric and split between Nissan and Stellantis. City/local trucks from Volvo, MAN and Scania. This is not a market Tesla caters for. They also do not produce Wine or aircraft among other things.
All these truck products are Fossil designs with EV equipment thrown in. They are utilitarian and not mature products in any way, although they do the job well and even in their current form are percieved as better than their Fossil counterparts.

As for Tesla quality.
They have the best motors, the best batteries, the best sensor and software package, the most brain power, and the most money to use. They have also grown faster than any other car manufacturer. They have come the furthest in solving the distribution/dealer/service problem, they have the best single CPU/chip centralized processing design with actual control of their supply chain. Which also means these cars have meaningful OTA capabilities which actually keeps your car current, while the others are switching around the graphics of their entertainment system once a year when the car are in for servicing. They have the vertical integration everyone else could just dream about.
The symbol of this is the frunk, of course, while other manufacturers throw a gazillion parts under the hood where there once was an ICE engine, tesla uses faster, stronger, better, quieter, more modern parts that actually fit together, and leave space for storage in addition to it. Their people actually talk together across departments. The newly introduced superbeam and the supermanifold as well as the giga-press are just symptoms of this.

My old 5 year old Hyundai Ioniq EV, while still better than any ICE car, looks like someone stumbled into it with a parts warehouse. And the new Ioniq 5 looks exactly the same, except it uses cheaper parts because Hyundai figured out they where close to failing anyway.

Removing some panels on the Tesla, it looks positively science fiction in comparison. I think it can last for 50 years without a hitch.

Panel gaps? Lol. Yes, believe it or not, they started focusing on the surface stuff the last. The tent based assembly of Model 3s fall 2018 and spring 2019 was not a good idea. That was pure growth pain, but also very transient.
I think this is what pisses the tyre kickers off with Tesla. None of their usual antics or «analysis» tells you a damn thing about how good these cars are.

cpd wrote:
M564038 wrote:
cpd wrote:

This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.




Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.

The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.


So say I needed to carry cargo to do deliveries, which Tesla model does that now? Surely being an innovator they can do that. Or are they just for the latte sipping elites?

I’ve looked at Tesla cars and don’t see what is so impressive about them design wise or from a fit and finish which was sub standard for the price.

And really, the best electric car or any car really is the one you don’t buy unless you really need it.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4276
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sun Mar 27, 2022 5:31 pm

pune wrote:
There was a thread where I had shared what Mr. Munro had talked about, bankruptcies by legacy auto. Most are unwilling to believe it even though their debts and other things tell the story by themselves -

https://ibb.co/j3mjVJB

Now people by themselves can judge where legacy auto will stand in a few years from now


This gentleman doesn't seem to understand what a captive finance arm is and, therefore, how to interpret that debt.
 
pune
Topic Author
Posts: 1482
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:19 am

QF7 wrote:
pune wrote:
Toyota (A Japanese car manufacturer) has asked BYD (A Chinese car manufacturer) to manufacture EVs for them.


And this is a threat to the big boys how?

For being such a prolific poster on the subject you don’t seem to understand the industry very well. Companies contract with third-parties all the time to manufacture products for them. This is true in the automotive industry, the washing machine industry, pharmaceuticals, and on and on. If it makes more economic sense to hire someone else to do it than to do it yourself, then it will be done.

You also seem fixated on believing that Tesla is the future and all the legacy companies are doomed to failure and bankruptcy. Now it is certainly true that over the course of their histories the legacies have made some bone-headed decisions at times and that there have been some ups and downs but that doesn’t predict anything for the future with any certainty.

Just one little factoid to ponder. In 2020 Tesla sold about 79% of all fully electric vehicles in the U.S. In 2021 Tesla’s share declined to 72%. Total sales nearly doubled. Someone (or several someone) is growing both volume and market share quickly.


But Toyota said it would be doing them, the fanboys said it all the time. So it was a dishonest statement. At the same time, they have produced commercials against EVs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusi ... ar-AAMQVw8

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/to ... ransition/

Who is that someone, GM sold something like 30 odd EV in last quarter of 2021. Please let me know who is that someone.
 
QF7
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:42 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:53 am

pune wrote:
But Toyota said it would be doing them, the fanboys said it all the time. So it was a dishonest statement. At the same time, they have produced commercials against EVs


I don’t know the details, perhaps so. But surely it will not be a surprise to you that things change in business (as in life) all the time.

Please let me know who is that someone.


Doesn’t really matter who it is. If Tesla is losing market share then someone else is gaining market share. It’s simple mathematics.
 
ACDC8
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Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:19 am

pune wrote:
But Toyota said it would be doing them, the fanboys said it all the time. So it was a dishonest statement. At the same time, they have produced commercials against EVs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusi ... ar-AAMQVw8

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/to ... ransition/

Who is that someone, GM sold something like 30 odd EV in last quarter of 2021. Please let me know who is that someone.

The goal is zero emissions, and how that is achieved doesn't matter whether its electrification or hydrogen or some other technology, the result is the name of the game. Toyota, as a business, decided to venture into other avenues to achieve their ZEV goals, namely hydrogen - just as other businesses in the past have done the same, Sony with betamax, Microsoft with HDDVD, and so on an so forth - sometimes a company gets in right, sometimes they get it wrong, but in the end, the market decides what technology is best through consumerism, not the policy makers, not technology fanboys. If electrification wins the battle in the long run, doesn't mean Toyota will not be a strong contender, just like Sony and Microsoft, Toyota will be around for a very long time.

The only reason why Tesla is as successful as it is, is that they had the market pretty much to themselves, but now as other brands come into play, Tesla will loose market ground more and more each time another brand brings out another EV. Just like the Prius, not everyone likes the styling of Tesla and once more mainstream looking hybrids came out such as the Camry, Corolla, Rav4, Highlander, Prius sales dropped significantly.

Just look at Apple when the iPhone came out, they had the market to themselves and slowly as others came along, the market is now almost 50/50. And so too will Tesla sales, not matter how much the Tesla Fanboys stomp their little feet in protest.
 
ACDC8
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:31 am

pune wrote:
Toyota (A Japanese car manufacturer) has asked BYD (A Chinese car manufacturer) to manufacture EVs for them.

This is incorrect and this has been explained to you before in another thread, but I'll repeat it again and hopefully this time you'll understand. Toyota and BYD are entering a partnership where BYD will provide the battery technology, the vehicle will not be built by BYD, it will be designed and built by Toyota containing BYD batteries. Just like every car manufacturer on the planet uses several technological/mechanical elements that they do not produce themselves, the car manufacturer partners with a company that specializes in a certain element, they provide that element to the manufacturer and the manufacturer (not the supplier) builds the car that they designed.

Incidentally, that vehicle will only be produced for the Chinese market.
 
M564038
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:58 am

BYD is the #4 most valuable car company in the world. It is definately one of the big boys.
Tesla has been an enormous fish in a small pond. This pond has now opened to other fish. By mathematical neccesity that means market share will drop. Tesla will remain dominant as it is so incredibly far ahead on tech.

I have actually driven most of these cars. Have you? The new Toyota is actually quite good, but it is not a Tesla. Happy to see them changing their ways, though.
 
ACDC8
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:03 am

M564038 wrote:
The new Toyota is actually quite good, but it is not a Tesla.

How many years in a row has Tesla been ranked number one in reliability and quality? Top 5? Top 10?

Oh yeah, none :sarcastic:

Fanboys will always be fanboys. Apple, Samsung, Tesla - always the same narrative.
 
marcelh
Posts: 2016
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:04 am

M564038 wrote:
As for Tesla quality. They have the best motors, the best batteries, the best sensor and software package, the most brain power, and the most money to use. They have also grown faster than any other car manufacturer. They have come the furthest in solving the distribution/dealer/service problem, they have the best single CPU/chip centralized processing design with actual control of their supply chain. Which also means these cars have meaningful OTA capabilities which actually keeps your car current, while the others are switching around the graphics of their entertainment system once a year when the car are in for servicing. They have the vertical integration everyone else could just dream about.


From a technical point of view Tesla may be superior, but it's that enough for everyday driving? IMHO, a 100,000 Euro Tesla model X doesn't have the looks and feel of an Audi E-tron.
 
melpax
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Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:04 am

Don't forget Hyundai & Kia are effectively the 1 company. With Toyota & Mazda starting to move upmarket here in Australia, the Koreans have taken over much of the small/medium car market that Toyota, Mazda & Ford once owned. The Australian Ford range is now virtually all-SUV, Ford's biggest seller here is the Ranger. For a Corolla or Mazda 3 in decent spec, you're now looking at around AUD$30K, even a Yaris or Mazda 2 is around the 25K mark. The Chinese MG3 now owns the under $20K market here, and the Cheapest EV here is an AUD$45K MG ZS. Don't be suprised if you see the MG brand back in the US in a couple of years. The Chinese are using Australia as a test market, much like the Japanese did in the 60's & 70's.
 
JJJ
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:11 am

marcelh wrote:
M564038 wrote:
As for Tesla quality. They have the best motors, the best batteries, the best sensor and software package, the most brain power, and the most money to use. They have also grown faster than any other car manufacturer. They have come the furthest in solving the distribution/dealer/service problem, they have the best single CPU/chip centralized processing design with actual control of their supply chain. Which also means these cars have meaningful OTA capabilities which actually keeps your car current, while the others are switching around the graphics of their entertainment system once a year when the car are in for servicing. They have the vertical integration everyone else could just dream about.


From a technical point of view Tesla may be superior, but it's that enough for everyday driving? IMHO, a 100,000 Euro Tesla model X doesn't have the looks and feel of an Audi E-tron.


The X is a 7 year old car which only recently got a minor restyling.

I'm not sure whether Tesla doesn't want or doesn't have the resources to update their vehicles but at some point it will come back to hurt them.

Oh, and the model 3 has the interior worthy of the cheapest Dacia. It stands like a sore thumb with cars at their price level.
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:12 pm

I have driven most of these cars, and it feels like most of you haven’t. I agree the Early X didn’t feel very premium, but it is huuuge, and they are continually bettering and upgrading and saying a current X isn’t up to e-tron standards are simply wrong by a large margin imo. Then again I have found most Audi’s to feel odd, Mercedeses to be blingy but not very comfortable(bad seats), BMWs to be cramped etc. I’m not a fan of the german cars, even though I want to (In my business, german post war engineering is the gold standard, I adore it).

At some point, a car is just a car, no matter how advanced it is. At the moment, my cheap Hyundai EV does 100% of the job my Tesla 3 does, at the same comfort level and half the price. However, the killer app(!) for the Tesla tech (a part from range and charging network which is less important than everyone thought it would be) is upcoming self driving.

The adaptive cruise control is better in the Hyundai than the Tesla. The lane keeping system and auto breaking is better too. But those are just separate systems driving in close formation with very finite possibilities and no upgradeability. What Tesla with their centralized 1 processor AI-stuff is aiming for is the killer app of self-driving, everlasting, no service parts. It’s breaking out of all the traditional limitations of the idea of what a car can do for you.

At the moment, the most advanced car doesn’t actually do much more for you than a 30 year old stick shift diesel could. Except some theoretical (for most) safery improvements. But that is changing.

Zero emissions, almost zero service and self driving are the first things that will drastically change the idea of what a car is, and what driving is in several generations.
Tesla is leading on all those points.
That is why they are the most valuable car company in the world.

marcelh wrote:
M564038 wrote:
As for Tesla quality. They have the best motors, the best batteries, the best sensor and software package, the most brain power, and the most money to use. They have also grown faster than any other car manufacturer. They have come the furthest in solving the distribution/dealer/service problem, they have the best single CPU/chip centralized processing design with actual control of their supply chain. Which also means these cars have meaningful OTA capabilities which actually keeps your car current, while the others are switching around the graphics of their entertainment system once a year when the car are in for servicing. They have the vertical integration everyone else could just dream about.


From a technical point of view Tesla may be superior, but it's that enough for everyday driving? IMHO, a 100,000 Euro Tesla model X doesn't have the looks and feel of an Audi E-tron.
 
IADCA
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:31 pm

JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:
There was a thread where I had shared what Mr. Munro had talked about, bankruptcies by legacy auto. Most are unwilling to believe it even though their debts and other things tell the story by themselves -

https://ibb.co/j3mjVJB

Now people by themselves can judge where legacy auto will stand in a few years from now


This gentleman doesn't seem to understand what a captive finance arm is and, therefore, how to interpret that debt.


Or the role of fixed-rate debt in an inflation era. We have a finance system largely run and analyzed by people who have never dealt with anything more than trivial inflation and have the misunderstanding and poor valuation that one would expect as a result.
 
marcelh
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:15 am

M564038 wrote:
I have driven most of these cars, and it feels like most of you haven’t. I agree the Early X didn’t feel very premium, but it is huuuge, and they are continually bettering and upgrading and saying a current X isn’t up to e-tron standards are simply wrong by a large margin imo. Then again I have found most Audi’s to feel odd, Mercedeses to be blingy but not very comfortable(bad seats), BMWs to be cramped etc. I’m not a fan of the german cars, even though I want to (In my business, german post war engineering is the gold standard, I adore it).

I actually have driven both cars and it’s clear we have a completely different view about cars. Your statement “I’m not a fan of German cars” says it all, just as mentioning “huuge” as being the first point you are bringing up to point out the values of a Tesla Model X. A Chrysler Voyager is also “huuuge”

At some point, a car is just a car, no matter how advanced it is. At the moment, my cheap Hyundai EV does 100% of the job my Tesla 3 does, at the same comfort level and half the price. However, the killer app(!) for the Tesla tech (a part from range and charging network which is less important than everyone thought it would be) is upcoming self driving.

The adaptive cruise control is better in the Hyundai than the Tesla. The lane keeping system and auto breaking is better too. But those are just separate systems driving in close formation with very finite possibilities and no upgradeability. What Tesla with their centralized 1 processor AI-stuff is aiming for is the killer app of self-driving, everlasting, no service parts. It’s breaking out of all the traditional limitations of the idea of what a car can do for you.

To you a car is just a means of transportation to travel from A to B, to me driving a car may also be fun. When adaptive cruisecontrol, lane keeping system and auto breaking are the most important, I think of a train instead of a car. Driveability, handling and fun doesn’t clearly tick your boxes. And to be clear, it doesn’t have to be a BMW E46 M3 or a VW Golf GTI. I had a lot of fun in a Fiat 500 convertible with a 0,9 liter 2 cylinder turbo engine with just under 90HP exploring the winding roads at Sicily a few years ago.

At the moment, the most advanced car doesn’t actually do much more for you than a 30 year old stick shift diesel could. Except some theoretical (for most) safery improvements. But that is changing.

Zero emissions, almost zero service and self driving are the first things that will drastically change the idea of what a car is, and what driving is in several generations.
Tesla is leading on all those points.
That is why they are the most valuable car company in the world.

Tesla is leading on all those points, but the competition is catching up quickly. And how advanced a Tesla may be, it’s just a “sophisticated computer on wheels”.
And being “the most valuable car company” doesn’t say anything about the quality of what they deliver. Stock value can drop within a blink of an eye….
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:25 am

This is what is happening in Australia -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf2fuEITVZA
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:38 am

To me personally it is very important that cars are fun to drive, the Hyundai isn’t, the Tesla(performance) is. It has about 4 times the HP and less than half the 0-100 time. Sneezing without taking the foot off the pedal sends you from 50 to 120. Insane power. (Even then the Hyundai beats most fossil cars from a full stop to normal local road speed. )

That is besides the point. The point is that Tesla is the furthest in having a car with a killer app that is something different than what a car has been with variations for the last century.

And no, the others aren’t really catching up, all they have done so far is starting to attempt.
I would LOVE to buy a Ioniq 5 or ID4 or one of the Mercedeses over an Y at the upcoming next car aquisition. I am not a Tesla fanboy. But I would be insane to do so. They are not mature EV products, even though the money thrown at those projects is an ansurd amount. That tells me it will take them a loong time to get there, and that Tesla will stay in the lead.

marcelh wrote:
M564038 wrote:
I have driven most of these cars, and it feels like most of you haven’t. I agree the Early X didn’t feel very premium, but it is huuuge, and they are continually bettering and upgrading and saying a current X isn’t up to e-tron standards are simply wrong by a large margin imo. Then again I have found most Audi’s to feel odd, Mercedeses to be blingy but not very comfortable(bad seats), BMWs to be cramped etc. I’m not a fan of the german cars, even though I want to (In my business, german post war engineering is the gold standard, I adore it).

I actually have driven both cars and it’s clear we have a completely different view about cars. Your statement “I’m not a fan of German cars” says it all, just as mentioning “huuge” as being the first point you are bringing up to point out the values of a Tesla Model X. A Chrysler Voyager is also “huuuge”

At some point, a car is just a car, no matter how advanced it is. At the moment, my cheap Hyundai EV does 100% of the job my Tesla 3 does, at the same comfort level and half the price. However, the killer app(!) for the Tesla tech (a part from range and charging network which is less important than everyone thought it would be) is upcoming self driving.

The adaptive cruise control is better in the Hyundai than the Tesla. The lane keeping system and auto breaking is better too. But those are just separate systems driving in close formation with very finite possibilities and no upgradeability. What Tesla with their centralized 1 processor AI-stuff is aiming for is the killer app of self-driving, everlasting, no service parts. It’s breaking out of all the traditional limitations of the idea of what a car can do for you.

To you a car is just a means of transportation to travel from A to B, to me driving a car may also be fun. When adaptive cruisecontrol, lane keeping system and auto breaking are the most important, I think of a train instead of a car. Driveability, handling and fun doesn’t clearly tick your boxes. And to be clear, it doesn’t have to be a BMW E46 M3 or a VW Golf GTI. I had a lot of fun in a Fiat 500 convertible with a 0,9 liter 2 cylinder turbo engine with just under 90HP exploring the winding roads at Sicily a few years ago.

At the moment, the most advanced car doesn’t actually do much more for you than a 30 year old stick shift diesel could. Except some theoretical (for most) safery improvements. But that is changing.

Zero emissions, almost zero service and self driving are the first things that will drastically change the idea of what a car is, and what driving is in several generations.
Tesla is leading on all those points.
That is why they are the most valuable car company in the world.

Tesla is leading on all those points, but the competition is catching up quickly. And how advanced a Tesla may be, it’s just a “sophisticated computer on wheels”.
And being “the most valuable car company” doesn’t say anything about the quality of what they deliver. Stock value can drop within a blink of an eye….
 
JJJ
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:05 am

M564038 wrote:
I have driven most of these cars, and it feels like most of you haven’t. I agree the Early X didn’t feel very premium, but it is huuuge, and they are continually bettering and upgrading and saying a current X isn’t up to e-tron standards are simply wrong by a large margin imo. Then again I have found most Audi’s to feel odd, Mercedeses to be blingy but not very comfortable(bad seats), BMWs to be cramped etc.


We’ll have to agree to disagree. To me Tesla seats have been the absolute worst for cars in their price level.

And let’s not talk about noise. Tesla seems to go to the cheapest bidder at every turn and cheap out on padding and isolation.

But yeah, if you want 0-100 by all means go buy a Tesla. Not software though, I’d rather have CarPlay/Auto and have all my apps in one place.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 10:22 am

T18 wrote:
Imo the firms likely to fail in the next 10 years, Rivian, Lotus and Mitsubishi (auto not MHI). I also suspect some brands may vanish or consolidate, I don't think Buick will endure in the US much longer and expect something goofy to occur with Tesla in the next 10 years, be it a buy out and re-brand, a merger or just start to become a small niche brand like Rolls or Alpina as the Big3, VAG, Toyota and Honda start to get affordable EVs on the market and begin to create better value competition


I'll give you Rivan. Lotus is majority owned by Geely, they aren't going anywhere. Mitsubishi isn't going down either since it's now part of the Renault Nissan alliance. Nissan owns 34% of the stock.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 10:32 am

M564038 wrote:
cpd wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
The big auto manufacturers have nothing to worry about, they'll be around a lot longer than the Tesla fanboys seem to think.

Auto manufactures have been consolidating/merging for well over 100 years. I mean, just look at Chrysler - yeesh.


This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.

marcelh wrote:

Exactly. Why should you buy a 1,020 HP Tesla model X Plaid for €120,000 instead of a Mercedes EQS 350 for less and with just more WLTP range?



Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.

The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.


Tesla make good motors and batteries, the rest of the car is subpar, poor build quality, noisy, they leak,and the latest issue they fitting cars with mismatching tyres. The S & X are now very old designs, it shows when you drive one.
 
marcelh
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:59 pm

M564038 wrote:
To me personally it is very important that cars are fun to drive, the Hyundai isn’t, the Tesla(performance) is. It has about 4 times the HP and less than half the 0-100 time. Sneezing without taking the foot off the pedal sends you from 50 to 120. Insane power. (Even then the Hyundai beats most fossil cars from a full stop to normal local road speed. )

IMO fun to drive is much more than a super car acceleration. The firsdt few times it IS fum, but after that it's just "meeeh". Fun to drive is also jumping from corner to corner on a winding road and really feeling what the car is doing with your input. A Tesla Model X is just hanging to one side while sliding from your seat. As said before, a Tesla is a sophisicated computer with wheels; IIRC Elon Musk has once said that Tesla isn't a car manufacturer, but a tech company that builts cars. And that is exactly how a Tesla drives.

That is besides the point. The point is that Tesla is the furthest in having a car with a killer app that is something different than what a car has been with variations for the last century.

A "killer app" might look cool, but looking somewhat further it's a "must have" for Tesla. They are a tech company and as a customer, you buy a piece of hardware and they have to update the software regularly to keep it functioning. It's the same, buying a computer and you have to install a new version of Windows....

And no, the others aren’t really catching up, all they have done so far is starting to attempt.
I would LOVE to buy a Ioniq 5 or ID4 or one of the Mercedeses over an Y at the upcoming next car aquisition. I am not a Tesla fanboy. But I would be insane to do so. They are not mature EV products, even though the money thrown at those projects is an ansurd amount. That tells me it will take them a loong time to get there, and that Tesla will stay in the lead.

What is a "mature EV product"? When it comes to fun to drive and comfort, other manufacturers are already ahead. The infotainment system and some other "nerdy" features? You have already stated earlier that your Hyundai has better performing features compared to Tesla. So it has to be the raw straight line performance and the big battery then? I'm really looking forward to your answer.

Tesla will be around for some time, because just like Apple, they got a fanbase of "true believers". But this isn't an iOS versus Android battle, there are much more competitors who will each take a piece of the EV pie. Diversification is the way to go; The Volkswagen group already has 10 models available based on the same platform (VW ID.3, ID.4, ID.5, Cupra Born, Skoda Enyaq iV and Enyaq Coupe iV, Audi Q4 e-tron and Q4 e-tron Sportsback) and more to come (ID.Buzz)
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:28 pm

But the S and X is not the same cars as in 2016 or 2014. Pretty much everything is changed. They continously upgrade. You don't need to go very far for info about it. I searched you tube, and this video from yesterday was pretty much the first thing that popped up. Someone changed their 2018 X for a 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d7zqMx3O9k

Kiwirob wrote:
M564038 wrote:
cpd wrote:

This is quite right. The large manufacturers with large resources are well placed to adapt. The newcomers are the ones at risk, or maybe the smaller volume manufacturers who aren’t as popular.

The likes of Mercedes Benz are into so many market areas, trucks, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, buses, etc - they will survive - and we can see they are doing just that.




Quite true, and where in normal conditions can you use 1020hp? The comfort and range of the EQS+ on the other hand you can use all the time.

Tesla had its time, now we see plenty of other makers with competitive normal electric cars. Hyundai is there, Kia as well, Polestar as well, even Ford surprisingly. VW group obviously too with its many brands. This is in the market of the models normal people can actually afford.

The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.


Tesla make good motors and batteries, the rest of the car is subpar, poor build quality, noisy, they leak,and the latest issue they fitting cars with mismatching tyres. The S & X are now very old designs, it shows when you drive one.
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 4:39 am

M564038 wrote:
But the S and X is not the same cars as in 2016 or 2014. Pretty much everything is changed. They continously upgrade. You don't need to go very far for info about it. I searched you tube, and this video from yesterday was pretty much the first thing that popped up. Someone changed their 2018 X for a 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d7zqMx3O9k

Kiwirob wrote:
M564038 wrote:
The problem with the Hyundai Group Cars, the VW id models, the Audis, the BMWs, the Polestars, the Mustangs, The Mercedes EQs is that they for the time being, and for some time to come just aren’t as good as the Teslas. And Tesla as a maker, designer, innovator and manufacturer has got the time and resources on it’s side. Not the other way around as you assume.


Tesla make good motors and batteries, the rest of the car is subpar, poor build quality, noisy, they leak,and the latest issue they fitting cars with mismatching tyres. The S & X are now very old designs, it shows when you drive one.


A facelift is not the same as a new car, and they are still poorly build with cheap interiors, that hasn’t changed. As I said the drive train excellent but the rest is not.
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:42 am

It is only the Chinese who are actually following what Tesla is doing. See for e.g. Gigapress. apart from Tesla 7 Chinese companies are using Gigapress. There is a Chinese company called LK Technology which has developed the 'Gigapress method' similar to the European company. So more Chinese auto companies will benefit. FWIW, I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.
 
ACDC8
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:03 am

pune wrote:
I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.

You can get a Taycan for $60,000 less and its a hell of a better car than anything Tesla will ever put out.
 
JJJ
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:17 am

pune wrote:
It is only the Chinese who are actually following what Tesla is doing. See for e.g. Gigapress. apart from Tesla 7 Chinese companies are using Gigapress. There is a Chinese company called LK Technology which has developed the 'Gigapress method' similar to the European company. So more Chinese auto companies will benefit. FWIW, I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.


Gigapress is nothing but a fancy name for making bigger pieces, which btw were developed by an Italian company (Idra) which was bought by LK a few years ago. Idra's biggest customers are still the big auto manufacturers, though they buy smaller machines.

As with everything, there are compromises. If the whole front of your car is a single cast piece, that means even minor accidents will come with huge repair costs, effectively totalling the car.

Just because Tesla does something a certain way doesn't mean it's the best thing ever. They have quite a track record of poor industrial decision making (X doors, the "machine that builts the machine", etc.) and pretty much the only reason they're still around is because the stock market has kept throwing money their way at every turn.
 
M564038
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:22 am

But it’s not, you see. It is not that simple at all.

You guys should all start following Bjørn Nyland’s EV channel on You Tube to get a nuanced picture on all of this. He’s the guy that actually tests EVs, and an insane amount of them, under real life conditions and have done so for years.
No one knows more about EVs than him. No one. (And he does like the Taycan and the EQS among others, but he’s got a very deep understanding from a practical standpoint why these aren’t Teslas yet.)
I don’t particularily care for his style, he’s a bit to plump at times, but he’s very knowledgeable and at times entertaining and a lover of all things cars. He once borrowed one of my cars for one of his videos, and was a stand up guy in all regards in that case.

https://youtube.com/user/bjornnyland

Pune’s comments about Sandy Munroe’s teardown are also good. His channel is useful for the Car-engineering and manufacturing part of things, he certainly tears down some myths about Tesla design and engineering quality, although he’s got nothing on Bjørn when it comes to practical considerations.

https://youtube.com/c/MunroLive

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.

You can get a Taycan for $60,000 less and its a hell of a better car than anything Tesla will ever put out.
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:25 am

JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:
It is only the Chinese who are actually following what Tesla is doing. See for e.g. Gigapress. apart from Tesla 7 Chinese companies are using Gigapress. There is a Chinese company called LK Technology which has developed the 'Gigapress method' similar to the European company. So more Chinese auto companies will benefit. FWIW, I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.


Gigapress is nothing but a fancy name for making bigger pieces, which btw were developed by an Italian company (Idra) which was bought by LK a few years ago. Idra's biggest customers are still the big auto manufacturers, though they buy smaller machines.

As with everything, there are compromises. If the whole front of your car is a single cast piece, that means even minor accidents will come with huge repair costs, effectively totaling the car.

Just because Tesla does something a certain way doesn't mean it's the best thing ever. They have quite a track record of poor industrial decision-making (X doors, the "machine that builds the machine", etc.) and pretty much the only reason they're still around is that the stock market has kept throwing money their way at every turn.


Lol, the hate. Somebody said above, Tesla makes profits because of the offsets but doesn't tell why other manufacturers can't make so much money from offsets. Silent on that part. Now telling another excuse, they are here because the stock market keeps throwing money their way at every turn. So there has to be something that Tesla does right, so the market responds and other manufacturers do not. FWIW, Tesla single-handedly built the market. Other manufacturers, most of them including VW were at the margins. Herbert Deiss has spoken about it,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w-KeSPIC4s

Also see this -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKf1ETg_fJM

That is what legacy auto companies have to contend with.
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:38 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
But Toyota said it would be doing them, the fanboys said it all the time. So it was a dishonest statement. At the same time, they have produced commercials against EVs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusi ... ar-AAMQVw8

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/to ... ransition/

Who is that someone, GM sold something like 30 odd EV in last quarter of 2021. Please let me know who is that someone.

The goal is zero emissions, and how that is achieved doesn't matter whether its electrification or hydrogen or some other technology, the result is the name of the game. Toyota, as a business, decided to venture into other avenues to achieve their ZEV goals, namely hydrogen - just as other businesses in the past have done the same, Sony with betamax, Microsoft with HDDVD, and so on an so forth - sometimes a company gets in right, sometimes they get it wrong, but in the end, the market decides what technology is best through consumerism, not the policy makers, not technology fanboys. If electrification wins the battle in the long run, doesn't mean Toyota will not be a strong contender, just like Sony and Microsoft, Toyota will be around for a very long time.

The only reason why Tesla is as successful as it is, is that they had the market pretty much to themselves, but now as other brands come into play, Tesla will loose market ground more and more each time another brand brings out another EV. Just like the Prius, not everyone likes the styling of Tesla and once more mainstream looking hybrids came out such as the Camry, Corolla, Rav4, Highlander, Prius sales dropped significantly.

Just look at Apple when the iPhone came out, they had the market to themselves and slowly as others came along, the market is now almost 50/50. And so too will Tesla sales, not matter how much the Tesla Fanboys stomp their little feet in protest.


Hydrogen as of today is nothing but vaporware. Producing 'green hydrogen' is difficult and expensive. Storing it is difficult and expensive. They haven't shared any of the steps required just painting a big picture. If they are not going to provide the solutions who will. I know there has been talk of also hydrogen aircraft but suffers from the same problem.
 
pune
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:43 am

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
But Toyota said it would be doing them, the fanboys said it all the time. So it was a dishonest statement. At the same time, they have produced commercials against EVs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusi ... ar-AAMQVw8

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/to ... ransition/

Who is that someone, GM sold something like 30 odd EV in last quarter of 2021. Please let me know who is that someone.

The goal is zero emissions, and how that is achieved doesn't matter whether its electrification or hydrogen or some other technology, the result is the name of the game. Toyota, as a business, decided to venture into other avenues to achieve their ZEV goals, namely hydrogen - just as other businesses in the past have done the same, Sony with betamax, Microsoft with HDDVD, and so on an so forth - sometimes a company gets in right, sometimes they get it wrong, but in the end, the market decides what technology is best through consumerism, not the policy makers, not technology fanboys. If electrification wins the battle in the long run, doesn't mean Toyota will not be a strong contender, just like Sony and Microsoft, Toyota will be around for a very long time.

The only reason why Tesla is as successful as it is is that they had the market pretty much to themselves, but now as other brands come into play, Tesla will lose market ground more and more each time another brand brings out another EV. Just like the Prius, not everyone likes the styling of Tesla and once more mainstream-looking hybrids came out such as the Camry, Corolla, Rav4, Highlander, Prius sales dropped significantly.

Just look at Apple when the iPhone came out, they had the market to themselves, and slowly as others came along, the market is now almost 50/50. And so too will Tesla sales, no matter how much the Tesla Fanboys stomp their little feet in protest.


Hydrogen as of today is nothing but vaporware. Producing 'green hydrogen' is difficult and expensive. Storing it is difficult and expensive. They haven't shared any of the steps required just painting a big picture. If they are not going to provide the solutions who will. I know there have been talks of also hydrogen aircraft but suffer from the same problem.

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/112 ... en-engines

Any solution with hydrogen is gonna take a decade or more and we can't afford to wait till those solutions come.
 
JJJ
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Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Fri Apr 01, 2022 12:22 pm

pune wrote:
JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:
It is only the Chinese who are actually following what Tesla is doing. See for e.g. Gigapress. apart from Tesla 7 Chinese companies are using Gigapress. There is a Chinese company called LK Technology which has developed the 'Gigapress method' similar to the European company. So more Chinese auto companies will benefit. FWIW, I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.


Gigapress is nothing but a fancy name for making bigger pieces, which btw were developed by an Italian company (Idra) which was bought by LK a few years ago. Idra's biggest customers are still the big auto manufacturers, though they buy smaller machines.

As with everything, there are compromises. If the whole front of your car is a single cast piece, that means even minor accidents will come with huge repair costs, effectively totaling the car.

Just because Tesla does something a certain way doesn't mean it's the best thing ever. They have quite a track record of poor industrial decision-making (X doors, the "machine that builds the machine", etc.) and pretty much the only reason they're still around is that the stock market has kept throwing money their way at every turn.


Lol, the hate. Somebody said above, Tesla makes profits because of the offsets but doesn't tell why other manufacturers can't make so much money from offsets. Silent on that part. Now telling another excuse, they are here because the stock market keeps throwing money their way at every turn. So there has to be something that Tesla does right, so the market responds and other manufacturers do not. FWIW, Tesla single-handedly built the market. Other manufacturers, most of them including VW were at the margins. Herbert Deiss has spoken about it,


I'm not saying it: Elon Musk himself did

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christophe ... sclosures/

Pointing out basic economic facts is not hating. But that's par for the course then discussing Tesla: "hater", "short", whatever.
 
pune
Topic Author
Posts: 1482
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Apr 02, 2022 4:20 am

JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Gigapress is nothing but a fancy name for making bigger pieces, which btw were developed by an Italian company (Idra) which was bought by LK a few years ago. Idra's biggest customers are still the big auto manufacturers, though they buy smaller machines.

As with everything, there are compromises. If the whole front of your car is a single cast piece, that means even minor accidents will come with huge repair costs, effectively totaling the car.

Just because Tesla does something a certain way doesn't mean it's the best thing ever. They have quite a track record of poor industrial decision-making (X doors, the "machine that builds the machine", etc.) and pretty much the only reason they're still around is that the stock market has kept throwing money their way at every turn.


Lol, the hate. Somebody said above, Tesla makes profits because of the offsets but doesn't tell why other manufacturers can't make so much money from offsets. Silent on that part. Now telling another excuse, they are here because the stock market keeps throwing money their way at every turn. So there has to be something that Tesla does right, so the market responds and other manufacturers do not. FWIW, Tesla single-handedly built the market. Other manufacturers, most of them including VW were at the margins. Herbert Deiss has spoken about it,


I'm not saying it: Elon Musk himself did

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christophe ... sclosures/

Pointing out basic economic facts is not hating. But that's par for the course then discussing Tesla: "hater", "short", whatever.


Thank you but you are sharing nothing new. What you shared is something Elon himself told and he never denied it. The Tesla production hell bit is well-known and is part of the lore of Tesla. Sadly, other auto majors dunno what to do. They have been caught with their pants down.
 
ACDC8
Posts: 8641
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Apr 02, 2022 6:29 am

pune wrote:
Hydrogen as of today is nothing but vaporware. Producing 'green hydrogen' is difficult and expensive. Storing it is difficult and expensive. They haven't shared any of the steps required just painting a big picture. If they are not going to provide the solutions who will. I know there have been talks of also hydrogen aircraft but suffer from the same problem.

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/112 ... en-engines

Any solution with hydrogen is gonna take a decade or more and we can't afford to wait till those solutions come.

Electricity is expensive to produce, and its not as "green" as you've been led to believe. Electricity is expensive to store and its expensive to distribute. Hydrogen is a very viable alternative, if there is a market for it, just as any other form of green energy present of future.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4276
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Apr 02, 2022 6:36 am

pune wrote:
JJJ wrote:
pune wrote:

Lol, the hate. Somebody said above, Tesla makes profits because of the offsets but doesn't tell why other manufacturers can't make so much money from offsets. Silent on that part. Now telling another excuse, they are here because the stock market keeps throwing money their way at every turn. So there has to be something that Tesla does right, so the market responds and other manufacturers do not. FWIW, Tesla single-handedly built the market. Other manufacturers, most of them including VW were at the margins. Herbert Deiss has spoken about it,


I'm not saying it: Elon Musk himself did

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christophe ... sclosures/

Pointing out basic economic facts is not hating. But that's par for the course then discussing Tesla: "hater", "short", whatever.


Thank you but you are sharing nothing new. What you shared is something Elon himself told and he never denied it. The Tesla production hell bit is well-known and is part of the lore of Tesla. Sadly, other auto majors dunno what to do. They have been caught with their pants down.


Line up the dots, then.

Tesla has been kept afloat by raising capital several times a year for most of its history. That makes up for a lot of bad decisions.

Again: that Tesla chooses to follow a particular manufacturing process doesn't mean it's the best ever, or even optimal. Other manufacturers have access to the same machines from the same manufacturer.

And are choosing not to. Take a look at this article, it's much more nuanced than the you-legacy-suckers-just-dont-get-it.

https://www.automotivemanufacturingsolu ... 21.article
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 14191
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Apr 02, 2022 5:00 pm

M564038 wrote:
But it’s not, you see. It is not that simple at all.

You guys should all start following Bjørn Nyland’s EV channel on You Tube to get a nuanced picture on all of this. He’s the guy that actually tests EVs, and an insane amount of them, under real life conditions and have done so for years.
No one knows more about EVs than him. No one. (And he does like the Taycan and the EQS among others, but he’s got a very deep understanding from a practical standpoint why these aren’t Teslas yet.)
I don’t particularily care for his style, he’s a bit to plump at times, but he’s very knowledgeable and at times entertaining and a lover of all things cars. He once borrowed one of my cars for one of his videos, and was a stand up guy in all regards in that case.

https://youtube.com/user/bjornnyland

Pune’s comments about Sandy Munroe’s teardown are also good. His channel is useful for the Car-engineering and manufacturing part of things, he certainly tears down some myths about Tesla design and engineering quality, although he’s got nothing on Bjørn when it comes to practical considerations.

https://youtube.com/c/MunroLive

ACDC8 wrote:
pune wrote:
I have been looking at Sandy Munro's takedown of the Plaid, and does tell a lot about the car.

You can get a Taycan for $60,000 less and its a hell of a better car than anything Tesla will ever put out.


I’ve watched most of Bjørns videos he’s an unabashed Tesla fanboy, nothing more nothing less. I prefer Kris Rifa he’s far more objective.
 
QF7
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:42 pm

Re: bankruptcies in the auto market

Sat Apr 02, 2022 7:28 pm

Just out of curiosity, what do the last dozen or more posts have to do with bankruptcies in the automotive industry?

Of which, so far as I know, there are none.

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