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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:45 pm

Cases in Shanghai hit record:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348

Cases in Shanghai surged on Wednesday to another record high of 26,330, of which just 1,190 were symptomatic. There is no end in sight to the lockdown, despite there being no official deaths reported.

That is an amazing ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic, 22:1.

Business in China now has a known quantifiable risk (lockdown). Orders will adjust (alternative suppliers must be found). This will be a fascinating business case study.

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santi319
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Business in China now has a known quantifiable risk (lockdown). Orders will adjust (alternative suppliers must be found). This will be a fascinating business case study.

Lightsaber


A case study usually requires real data and cooperation from the aforementioned.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:52 pm

santi319 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Business in China now has a known quantifiable risk (lockdown). Orders will adjust (alternative suppliers must be found). This will be a fascinating business case study.

Lightsaber


A case study usually requires real data and cooperation from the aforementioned.

Business case studies will have no trouble interviewing companies and there responses. The order history frim a dozen companies or even two or three major players in a few industries is sufficient.

This has added a cost to business in China that can easily be quantified when we look back at the data.

The lack of serious cases and poor food distribution continues. So it is obvious this is impacting business. I assume you have read "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman? It does an excellent job on describing the economics of outsourcing and trade.
A link on the lack of serious cases and continuing food issues (some violence as hungry people will):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61117528.amp


Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Cases in Shanghai hit record:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/sh ... d=84052348

Cases in Shanghai surged on Wednesday to another record high of 26,330, of which just 1,190 were symptomatic. There is no end in sight to the lockdown, despite there being no official deaths reported.

That is an amazing ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic, 22:1.

Business in China now has a known quantifiable risk (lockdown). Orders will adjust (alternative suppliers must be found). This will be a fascinating business case study.

Lightsaber

1. In fact the official case number have been at ~20k for quite sometimes (see figures in past posts). The number isn't decreasing but it is not like a rapid exponential growth either.

A few days ago read an opinion somewhere that mentioned in the context of Taiwan that, if strong preventive measure against the virus across the society is maintained throughout the outbreak across the ebtire society, in the course of converting to the live with virus path, the risk of medical facility capacity overflow could be minimized, yet as the virus spread slower, doubling time increase, that could also mean the entire society need longer time before the first infection peak can be overcome and to progress toward normal.

With Shanghai, I am wondering whether that opinion is actually in play in the city. 20K+ people infected is record high number there, but is still small count in the city of 20M+ population. It might take a long time before the trend reverse, longer than what people in other countries experienced.

Also, from another perspective, such count mean Shanghai government now officially missed their original 2-weeks situation clear prediction.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 15, 2022 11:59 pm

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sha ... 022-04-08/

Also this is what the private market in Shanghai now is looking like, when government delivery aren't reaching most people on time and individual citizens can't just go out and buy what they want
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:18 pm

Good to hear food distribution is improving.

I now have tested positive for Covid19. Despite double boosted (mix of 3 Pfizer + 1 Moderna 17 days ago). Mild, with chills.

Perhaps going to a pub with 30 coworkers was a bad idea? Naaaa It wasn't that crowded, perhaps 150 people total. :spin:

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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:41 pm

Maersk is stopping delivering refer containers to Shanghai due to the delays:
https://gcaptain.com/maersk-says-no-to- ... h-exports/


Well, that cannot be good.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:28 am

lightsaber wrote:
Good to hear food distribution is improving.

My post from yesterday isn't a new development. In fact have been pretty widespread starting back from the first few days of the lockdown, and is also part of the dissatisfaction.
The situation also varies widely between different communes, locations, buildings, and individuals.
From what I gathered, now the logistic fee is much higher than regular times due to limited amount of people and vehicles being qualified for transporting goods, as only people and vehicles who have a "pass" can travel through lockdown barriers, so the transportation capacity become a very scarce resources and very expensive. Like I have heard figures of a truck with pass costing minimum 10000 USD a day to rent. So these "buying groups" formed among citizens to try to gather enough quantity of demand and to pay for the money that can allow the transportation of goods of such capacity into their building. But due to such expensive transportation cost, which includes both the transportation from outside sources to shops and from shops to individual buying groups, without mentioning possible extra profits earned between each of these layers, while the exact cost varies widely between individuals but the total price individual pay ultimately costing multiple fold or an order of magnitude more than usual price and still increasing day to day is nothing unusual. Quality of the delivery are also something hard to guarantee amid the situation.
And supply is still scarce even with such price tag so they aren't stable. It depends on individual leader of each "buying groups" to reach out to different suppliers, get the connection and arrange the transportation. This also directly dictate the amount of supply and cost of supply that each group can receive. Those who have excellent arrangement and connections can even get themselves some KFC fried chicken. Yet vast majority are not.
Then there is also the barrier of joining these groups. Some of the groups are relatively active and willing to help others and can help elderly who don't use smartphone to join, but others are not so fortunate. And then there are also some who simply live in a building with too few residents that they cannot gather enough amount of demand to ask for transportation, or that residents in a particular building do not have someone who are quite as capable in finding the proper private channels to source their supply. And amid the existence of private group buying channels, these people who aren't able to participate in such groups become further neglected and marginalized.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:55 pm

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2022041600103&g=soc
Rural Japan are now seeing their corona case count hitting record high and claim they are in a 7th infection wave, with possibility of medical capacity shortage, however major cities and past outbreak hotspots are relatively flat in infection count, thus the national number aren't reflecting rural area experience.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue Apr 19, 2022 4:56 pm

The Shanghai lockdown continues to create food shortages, particularly for the non-tech savy (elderly):
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/19/chin ... index.html

Considering I was a meeting last week with 70 people of which 34 or 35 caught Covid19 with proof of vaccination required to enter the building and no one had symptoms prior to the meeting... This will be a long haul.

I had 4 days of fever.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:45 am

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/ni ... l?mode=all
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ4N6RSTQ4NUTFL018.html
Leader of Japan Medical Association said, in Japan, time to take off masks is when the pandemic end, and that he don't think there will be time when masks are to be taken off in Japan while the society is still living with the virus.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:03 am

Philadelphia to end mask mandate a mere 4 days after reimplementing it earlier this week

https://twitter.com/electionwiz/status/ ... VHheZoxAig
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:56 am

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E9%9D%9E%E6% ... 20425.html


Hong Kong government say they will open up to foreign people.
Starting from May 1, non-citizens will be allowed to enter Hong Kong, and the quarantine they will face will be same as citizens.
Which mean 14 days for all, but vaccinated travellers can get the quarantine shortened to 7 days if tested negative, although they will still need to monitor their own health for 7 days after that.

Punishment against airlines also get relaxed
The 7-days flight ban will now be shortened to 5-days, in case violation have been found or too much passengers have been found to be infected
The triggering threshold for the punishment have also been relaxed, now the criteria is 5 person on a plane infected or 5% passengers, as opposed to the old 3 passengers criteria.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 3:12 pm

Here is an update on origins of the virus. What is interesting to me is that this is the first article which credibly suggests the outbreak may have begun as early as September. It also discusses at length the Chinese researcher who seems to have been the first to sequence the virus. She was effectively shushed for months.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... p_opinions
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 7:03 am

Texas sues to block Biden administration from lifting Title 42, a pandemic-era health rule used to expel migrants

Texas has led the legal fight against the Biden administration’s immigration policies, filing numerous lawsuits that have led to judges overturning or altering those policies.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/22 ... 2-lawsuit/

U.S. Department of Homeland Security officials have said they expect immigration authorities to have up to 18,000 encounters a day with immigrants at the border once Title 42 removals stop. The current average is about 6,000 encounters a day.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:09 pm

Expats are (trying to) leave Shanghai. Amazing, 4 weeks of lockdown. How many people would be prepared for that?

I speculate the trade flows will shift, partially based on where the expats are willing to risk living. Of course, offered salaries and terms will impact the risk anyone is willing to take.

https://news.yahoo.com/dutch-expat-desc ... 46431.html
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:29 am

A yet to be peer reviewed paper from Virginia Commonwealth University compares the change in life expectancies of 19 broadly comparable countries during the first two years of the pandemic.

The US had the biggest decline in life expectancy of 2.26 years from the already poor 78.26 years in 2019 to 76.6 years in 2021.

The decline in life expectancy was very heavily concentrated in Hispanic and non Hispanic black populations.

England Wales and Northern Ireland had a decline of 0.93 years in the same period.

Of the countries studied, Norway, South Korea and New Zealand actually recorded a gain in life expectancy in the period.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22273393v2
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:06 am

Toenga wrote:
The decline in life expectancy was very heavily concentrated in Hispanic and non Hispanic black populations.


You’re being selective here. Blacks and Hispanics registered a gain in life expectancy in 2021. NH Whites registered a decline. You left out an important piece.

As in 2020, the decrease in US life expectancy in 2021 was highly racialized, but it followed a distinctly different pattern: whereas Hispanic and Black populations experienced disproportionately large decreases in life expectancy in 2020, life expectancy in the Hispanic population increased negligibly in 2021 (0.05 [CR=-0.12-0.23] years), and life expectancy in the Black population increased by 0.42 (CR = 0.23-0.62) years. The non-Hispanic White population experienced a further decline of 0.34 (CR = 0.17-0.52) years, which occurred disproportionately among men


Urban Hispanic and Blacks took the vaccine more seriously than rural Whites, which is why they saw a reversal in outcomes.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon Apr 25, 2022 3:00 am

leader1 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
The decline in life expectancy was very heavily concentrated in Hispanic and non Hispanic black populations.


You’re being selective here. Blacks and Hispanics registered a gain in life expectancy in 2021. NH Whites registered a decline. You left out an important piece.

As in 2020, the decrease in US life expectancy in 2021 was highly racialized, but it followed a distinctly different pattern: whereas Hispanic and Black populations experienced disproportionately large decreases in life expectancy in 2020, life expectancy in the Hispanic population increased negligibly in 2021 (0.05 [CR=-0.12-0.23] years), and life expectancy in the Black population increased by 0.42 (CR = 0.23-0.62) years. The non-Hispanic White population experienced a further decline of 0.34 (CR = 0.17-0.52) years, which occurred disproportionately among men


Urban Hispanic and Blacks took the vaccine more seriously than rural Whites, which is why they saw a reversal in outcomes.



I am always delighted when life expectancy increases and incredibly saddened when disease or events foreshortens life.
In the first stages of the pandemic, death rates reflected the comparitive public health infection control measures undertaken.
Once vaccines were readily available, vaccine uptake has become the dominant, but not the only factor, that has determined comparitive death rates.

Here in NZ our indigenous Maori people, and our Pacifika peoples have been disproportionately affected by the epidemic.
Large multigenerational families made isolation impracticable in so many more cases, and employment is much more concentrated in areas where work from home was a total non goer.
There is unfortunately a residual lack of trust in some communities, resulting from historic treatment, that has now translated into an unfortunate disparity of vaccination rates, which is continuing this disproportionate effect.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:37 am

TV news: As case count in Hong Kong passed the peak, it have been proposed for government to resume to old covid zero mode to coerce the virus through contact tracing and force quarantine of all infected individuals, to avoid wasting quarantine resources being put in place.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:46 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/health/f ... index.html

US Is out of the Pandemic

he United States is out of the Covid-19 pandemic phase, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"We are certainly, right now, in this country, out of the pandemic phase," Fauci said on PBS NewsHour Tuesday.
"Namely, we don't have 900,000 new infections a day and tens and tens and tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths. We are at a low level right now. So, if you're saying are we out of the pandemic phase in this country? We are," he said.


A lot of the world is still not out of it though. and it looks like vaccines may be needed ongoing. The article also mentions that Covid is still more deadly than the flu.

Fauci said that while coronavirus won't be eradicated, the level of virus in society could be kept very low if people are intermittently vaccinated, possibly every year.
Currently, local health officials on the ground across the US are still working to get more people fully vaccinated and boosted against Covid-19.
The Covid-19 situation in the United States also doesn't necessarily reflect what's happening in the rest of the world, Fauci noted.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon May 02, 2022 12:37 pm

Shanghai found 58 cases of covid19 outside lockdown zones:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/se ... uxbndlbing

In Beijing (same link): While cases in Beijing have not surged upwards like Shanghai, authorities in the city have failed to completely stomp them out with several dozens being reported every day.

With Omicron being often asymptomatic and notorious for false negatives, they will be chasing their tail for months.

Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?

We need better data on who is dying (unvaccinated, age, medical condition).

leader1 wrote:
Toenga wrote:
The decline in life expectancy was very heavily concentrated in Hispanic and non Hispanic black populations.


You’re being selective here. Blacks and Hispanics registered a gain in life expectancy in 2021. NH Whites registered a decline. You left out an important piece.

As in 2020, the decrease in US life expectancy in 2021 was highly racialized, but it followed a distinctly different pattern: whereas Hispanic and Black populations experienced disproportionately large decreases in life expectancy in 2020, life expectancy in the Hispanic population increased negligibly in 2021 (0.05 [CR=-0.12-0.23] years), and life expectancy in the Black population increased by 0.42 (CR = 0.23-0.62) years. The non-Hispanic White population experienced a further decline of 0.34 (CR = 0.17-0.52) years, which occurred disproportionately among men


Urban Hispanic and Blacks took the vaccine more seriously than rural Whites, which is why they saw a reversal in outcomes.

It is no surprise the vaccine is doing its job.

the “worst-case scenario” was to catch the virus as an unvaccinated person.
...
He said protection against severe disease increased to about 80 per cent with two doses and to almost 100 per cent with a booster shot.

“So if you’ve had your booster dose, the chances of you dying from omicron is very close to zero,” Professor Esterman said.

https://www.afr.com/politics/chance-of- ... 121-p59q5h

This virus has a habit of finding people. I went to an after-work event, with attendance requiring vaccination, and 80% of the people caught whatever the latest Omicron was. Zero severe cases. To my knowledge, no one even saw a doctor (but the corporate nurse was in touch with all of us). I can only imagine how bad it would have been if any un-vaccinated people had attended.

Now, I skipped two dance events this week due to local rising cases and the fact I am going to see someone vulnerable in a few days, but I won't skip things for long. It is time to live.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 03, 2022 1:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
We need better data on who is dying (unvaccinated, age, medical condition).


Is that data for Shanghai or data generally?.

Alone amongst Australian States, NSW has been publishing weekly surveillance overview reports since April 2020. They are released a fortnight in arrears https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectiou ... ports.aspx

Hospitalisations are skewed towards 60+yo, although not dramatically so. Deaths are almost entirely amongst 70+yo. 27% of those reported as admitted to hospital in the preceding fortnight had zero or one dose of a vaccine, yet over 90% of the 12+ population has a had two doses of vaccine. 8% of admissions were in the 0-10 age group, where only 5-11 are eligible for vaccination, and 50% of that population have a had at least one dose. 46% of those admitted to hospital had three or more doses.

There is also some commentary regarding comorbidities, and deaths amongst fully vaccinated and boosted people are generally the very elderly and/or those with significant comorbidities.

But overall, it seems that we are heading towards endemic stage. Positive cases are still required to isolate but not close contacts as long as they test negative before leaving the house. Masks are only mandated on public transport and in health environments.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 03, 2022 3:10 am

lightsaber wrote:
Shanghai found 58 cases of covid19 outside lockdown zones:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/se ... uxbndlbing

In Beijing (same link): While cases in Beijing have not surged upwards like Shanghai, authorities in the city have failed to completely stomp them out with several dozens being reported every day.

With Omicron being often asymptomatic and notorious for false negatives, they will be chasing their tail for months.

Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?

Lightsaber


West Taiwan, also known as the PRC, is a totalitarian state that has no regard for the value of human life. They will try to contain Covid-19 using all means necessary as long as it pleases them. This insane lockdown circus in Shanghai is just another example of how far they are willing to go in order to maintain their control of the population.

How would you propose vaccinating the unvaccinated in a place like the PRC?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 03, 2022 3:12 am

lightsaber wrote:
It is time to live.

Lightsaber


Stop the presses!
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Wed May 04, 2022 3:07 pm

fallap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Shanghai found 58 cases of covid19 outside lockdown zones:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/se ... uxbndlbing

In Beijing (same link): While cases in Beijing have not surged upwards like Shanghai, authorities in the city have failed to completely stomp them out with several dozens being reported every day.

With Omicron being often asymptomatic and notorious for false negatives, they will be chasing their tail for months.

Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?

Lightsaber


West Taiwan, also known as the PRC, is a totalitarian state that has no regard for the value of human life. They will try to contain Covid-19 using all means necessary as long as it pleases them. This insane lockdown circus in Shanghai is just another example of how far they are willing to go in order to maintain their control of the population.

How would you propose vaccinating the unvaccinated in a place like the PRC?

Hello, please read this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comment ... ree_china/
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Wed May 04, 2022 6:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?


Most people outside of China do not understand the intent behind the relentless and increasingly insane pursuit of zero covid.
Zero-covid has become a political mantra. It was the strategy chosen by Xinping as a political slogan for his push towards a third term and, he hopes, a lifetime at the helm of China. It was meant to denote the superiority of China and its autocratic government model over the rest of the World by showcasing its ability to keep the virus at bay, as well as to help substantiate the made-up narrative that the virus did not come from China.

It has always been pure political propaganda disguised as an attempt to avoid a public health disaster.
That strategy was doomed to fail the moment it became apparent that the virus was going to keep evolving its way into endemicity and increased contagiousness, but by then it was too late. For an all-powerful leader who has made the policy a testament to his power and ability, in a country that has a deep seated aversion to losing face, there simply was no way to amend that goal. Any change in the strategy would mean that the leadership was wrong, along with the aggravating factors of revealing the inadequate state of the Chinese healthcare system as well as the deficiencies of the domestic vaccines which have been used as part of that jingoistic agenda.

The result was inevitable. A one-man government which imposed itself the need to eliminate a virus which cannot be eliminated... In an ultra-authoritarian system, that means the utterly dystopian and nightmarish ordeal that the population is currently forced to endure to serve the political ambitions of one man who sees his constituents as nothing but pawns to be used to manufacture his personal vision of a 'perfect' Chinese society.

This form of government is, by the way, the one he is and increasingly will seek to promote and subversively export around the World as he fundamentally considers any other form of government - especially democracies - as useless and doomed to fail.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat May 07, 2022 4:00 pm

volauvent wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?


Most people outside of China do not understand the intent behind the relentless and increasingly insane pursuit of zero covid.
Zero-covid has become a political mantra. It was the strategy chosen by Xinping as a political slogan for his push towards a third term and, he hopes, a lifetime at the helm of China. It was meant to denote the superiority of China and its autocratic government model over the rest of the World by showcasing its ability to keep the virus at bay, as well as to help substantiate the made-up narrative that the virus did not come from China.

It has always been pure political propaganda disguised as an attempt to avoid a public health disaster.
That strategy was doomed to fail the moment it became apparent that the virus was going to keep evolving its way into endemicity and increased contagiousness, but by then it was too late. For an all-powerful leader who has made the policy a testament to his power and ability, in a country that has a deep seated aversion to losing face, there simply was no way to amend that goal. Any change in the strategy would mean that the leadership was wrong, along with the aggravating factors of revealing the inadequate state of the Chinese healthcare system as well as the deficiencies of the domestic vaccines which have been used as part of that jingoistic agenda.

The result was inevitable. A one-man government which imposed itself the need to eliminate a virus which cannot be eliminated... In an ultra-authoritarian system, that means the utterly dystopian and nightmarish ordeal that the population is currently forced to endure to serve the political ambitions of one man who sees his constituents as nothing but pawns to be used to manufacture his personal vision of a 'perfect' Chinese society.

This form of government is, by the way, the one he is and increasingly will seek to promote and subversively export around the World as he fundamentally considers any other form of government - especially democracies - as useless and doomed to fail.

I 100% agree with you, all points. It is now political theater in the name of controlling the uncontrollable.

I really wish we hadn't put the hospitals through the hell we had, but my relative who *used* to run a corona-virus ward, doesn't have any patients. Either they get well quick or they go to the ICU (my relative runs a critical care ward, not the ICU, there are tranches of care levels).

I agree with getting vaccinated. Now if it was SinoVac, I would be concerned (10.9X more likely to be hospitalized than with Moderna):
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... dy-2625511

The vaccines work. I now how my first coworker catch the latest variant (probably the BA.2.12.1, I'm fairly certain what most of us caught at an after work event) who is unvaccinated catch it. Miserable. Much worse case than the vaccinated had. Not hospitalized. Ironically, he caught it while taking his wife out for a birthday dinner... I'll be curious as to the duration (so far 1 day longer than the vaccinated, none of us went past 5 days).

But China is well vaccinated. Warn everyone zero Covid ends in a few weeks and watch the rush for vaccines. Or not. At this point I don't think anyone wants to think about it anymore. But I would be concerned with how poorly SinoVac and SinoPharm are performing to keep people out of the hospital. In a country without a buffer of a high fraction of the population with mRNA vaccines, this could be exiting.

Wow, 97.4 times more likely to die unvaccinted than vaccinated. I wish their was a young child vaccine (ages say 1/2 year to 5 year), but alas there isn't. But at some time life must return to normal. We must live.
https://www.factcheck.org/2022/02/scich ... ed-adults/

I'm not saying their won't be cases. A group of us from work attended a fun after work function and 80% of us caught Covid19, but all mild (but all also vaccinated, I know few unvaccinated, so it is interesting to see how they do). Because the vaccinated carry a lower viral load, in areas with high vaccination rates, the transmission is less catastrophic (typically):
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/ ... on-spread/
This is because vaccinated people carry a viral load in their body that is overall lower than that of unvaccinated people; therefore, the virus cannot be transmitted as effectively.

e.g., your unvaccinated friend is 20x more likely to get you sick than a vaccinated friend:
https://theconversation.com/your-unvacc ... vid-170448

So China's problem is their vaccines aren't effective enough. Simple solutions boost (more of the same or import better vaccines) and move on. China has wasted a huge amount of time not solving a problem and instead locking down.

Meh... I'll go dancing today and have fun. My kids will play in the park with their friends. It just isn't understandable to lock down anymore, not when people have chosen their own risk level (and I feel lucky living in a super well vaccinated zip code).

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 10, 2022 12:55 am

https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/1523203600339587072
According to TV screenshot on the internet, it's now official policy that if someone in an apartment is infected, then others who live in other apartments in the same floor, or those who live in apartments along the same column above or below the unit with ibfected patient, will be taken to the quarantine. The TV screen claim this measure can hekp redice disruption to other residents.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 10, 2022 1:18 am

c933103 wrote:
https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/1523203600339587072
According to TV screenshot on the internet, it's now official policy that if someone in an apartment is infected, then others who live in other apartments in the same floor, or those who live in apartments along the same column above or below the unit with ibfected patient, will be taken to the quarantine. The TV screen claim this measure can hekp redice disruption to other residents.


I saw reporting of those alleged actions earlier. Coming from a country which also aimed for Covid-zero but within a Western style democracy, and which is now living with Covid, I was shocked at both the agression and, ultimately, the pointlessness of the actions.

I am currently Covid positive and, with Omicron, two shots of AZ plus Moderna booster and overall good health, my symptoms have been similar to a bad cold or mild influenza. Approx. 10-12 (mostly elderly) people a day in my State of 8 million are dying from Covid, and there are around 50-60 in ICU across the state with Covid.
 
cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 10, 2022 2:17 am

lightsaber wrote:
The vaccines work. I now how my first coworker catch the latest variant (probably the BA.2.12.1, I'm fairly certain what most of us caught at an after work event) who is unvaccinated catch it. Miserable. Much worse case than the vaccinated had. Not hospitalized. Ironically, he caught it while taking his wife out for a birthday dinner... I'll be curious as to the duration (so far 1 day longer than the vaccinated, none of us went past 5 days).


One of my friends was triple vaccinated and caught covid and was quite badly sick. Caught it via his son (son got it at school). He wasn't terribly unfit before that, but Covid hit him pretty hard and also impacted his eyes too, needing quick treatment. He's okay now - but it's not always the case that vaccination will mean you won't be badly affected.

We just have to take sensible precautions so that we can continue to get on with our lives without getting infected.

In my current state I can’t afford to get infected. Recovering from major surgery is very, very difficult.
 
cskok8
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 10, 2022 3:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
volauvent wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lockdowns should have a purpose and a clear end goal. My recommendation would be a vaccine booster and to vaccinate the unvaccinated. I see no way these lockdowns will eliminate the virus. How long will they try?


Most people outside of China do not understand the intent behind the relentless and increasingly insane pursuit of zero covid.
Zero-covid has become a political mantra. It was the strategy chosen by Xinping as a political slogan for his push towards a third term and, he hopes, a lifetime at the helm of China. It was meant to denote the superiority of China and its autocratic government model over the rest of the World by showcasing its ability to keep the virus at bay, as well as to help substantiate the made-up narrative that the virus did not come from China.

It has always been pure political propaganda disguised as an attempt to avoid a public health disaster.
That strategy was doomed to fail the moment it became apparent that the virus was going to keep evolving its way into endemicity and increased contagiousness, but by then it was too late. For an all-powerful leader who has made the policy a testament to his power and ability, in a country that has a deep seated aversion to losing face, there simply was no way to amend that goal. Any change in the strategy would mean that the leadership was wrong, along with the aggravating factors of revealing the inadequate state of the Chinese healthcare system as well as the deficiencies of the domestic vaccines which have been used as part of that jingoistic agenda.

The result was inevitable. A one-man government which imposed itself the need to eliminate a virus which cannot be eliminated... In an ultra-authoritarian system, that means the utterly dystopian and nightmarish ordeal that the population is currently forced to endure to serve the political ambitions of one man who sees his constituents as nothing but pawns to be used to manufacture his personal vision of a 'perfect' Chinese society.

This form of government is, by the way, the one he is and increasingly will seek to promote and subversively export around the World as he fundamentally considers any other form of government - especially democracies - as useless and doomed to fail.

I 100% agree with you, all points. It is now political theater in the name of controlling the uncontrollable.

I really wish we hadn't put the hospitals through the hell we had, but my relative who *used* to run a corona-virus ward, doesn't have any patients. Either they get well quick or they go to the ICU (my relative runs a critical care ward, not the ICU, there are tranches of care levels).

I agree with getting vaccinated. Now if it was SinoVac, I would be concerned (10.9X more likely to be hospitalized than with Moderna):
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... dy-2625511

The vaccines work. I now how my first coworker catch the latest variant (probably the BA.2.12.1, I'm fairly certain what most of us caught at an after work event) who is unvaccinated catch it. Miserable. Much worse case than the vaccinated had. Not hospitalized. Ironically, he caught it while taking his wife out for a birthday dinner... I'll be curious as to the duration (so far 1 day longer than the vaccinated, none of us went past 5 days).

But China is well vaccinated. Warn everyone zero Covid ends in a few weeks and watch the rush for vaccines. Or not. At this point I don't think anyone wants to think about it anymore. But I would be concerned with how poorly SinoVac and SinoPharm are performing to keep people out of the hospital. In a country without a buffer of a high fraction of the population with mRNA vaccines, this could be exiting.

Wow, 97.4 times more likely to die unvaccinted than vaccinated. I wish their was a young child vaccine (ages say 1/2 year to 5 year), but alas there isn't. But at some time life must return to normal. We must live.
https://www.factcheck.org/2022/02/scich ... ed-adults/

I'm not saying their won't be cases. A group of us from work attended a fun after work function and 80% of us caught Covid19, but all mild (but all also vaccinated, I know few unvaccinated, so it is interesting to see how they do). Because the vaccinated carry a lower viral load, in areas with high vaccination rates, the transmission is less catastrophic (typically):
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/ ... on-spread/
This is because vaccinated people carry a viral load in their body that is overall lower than that of unvaccinated people; therefore, the virus cannot be transmitted as effectively.

e.g., your unvaccinated friend is 20x more likely to get you sick than a vaccinated friend:
https://theconversation.com/your-unvacc ... vid-170448

So China's problem is their vaccines aren't effective enough. Simple solutions boost (more of the same or import better vaccines) and move on. China has wasted a huge amount of time not solving a problem and instead locking down.

Meh... I'll go dancing today and have fun. My kids will play in the park with their friends. It just isn't understandable to lock down anymore, not when people have chosen their own risk level (and I feel lucky living in a super well vaccinated zip code).

Lightsaber


You left out the part where they cannot lose face by using "western" vaccines. Pfizer already signed a licensing agreement with a local Chinese company to produce their vaccine about a year ago. I think millions of doses are lying in storage but the CCP has not approved its use
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 10, 2022 12:20 pm

https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2205105388/

The last working metro line in Shanghai have suspended service indefinitely amid the virus.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu May 12, 2022 12:52 am

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220512 ... ction=news

North Korea claim to have found first case of corona inside the country, from a resident in Pyongyang with fever. Variant being Omicron.

Given the location of discovery, and how they descrive the patient is found, I think it indicate clearly the source is some others, and most probably it have already been spreading in the country for certain period of time despite its extra harsh border closure.

And then let recall North Korea have not received any foreign vaccines yet, even though they have asked WHO's vaccine sharing on whether they can provide mRNA vaccines.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu May 12, 2022 5:14 pm

https://transitjam.com/2022/05/11/devel ... cal-value/

After Hong Kong government poured concrete onto wetland for "coronavirus isolation", property developers applied to rezone those area into building skyscrapers, claiming that the area now have now ecological value.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu May 12, 2022 11:18 pm

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-05-12/

North Korea claim 350,000+ infected with "fever of unidentified origin" with six death, one confirmed to be Omicron
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Fri May 13, 2022 12:38 am

cskok8 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
volauvent wrote:

Most people outside of China do not understand the intent behind the relentless and increasingly insane pursuit of zero covid.
Zero-covid has become a political mantra. It was the strategy chosen by Xinping as a political slogan for his push towards a third term and, he hopes, a lifetime at the helm of China. It was meant to denote the superiority of China and its autocratic government model over the rest of the World by showcasing its ability to keep the virus at bay, as well as to help substantiate the made-up narrative that the virus did not come from China.

It has always been pure political propaganda disguised as an attempt to avoid a public health disaster.
That strategy was doomed to fail the moment it became apparent that the virus was going to keep evolving its way into endemicity and increased contagiousness, but by then it was too late. For an all-powerful leader who has made the policy a testament to his power and ability, in a country that has a deep seated aversion to losing face, there simply was no way to amend that goal. Any change in the strategy would mean that the leadership was wrong, along with the aggravating factors of revealing the inadequate state of the Chinese healthcare system as well as the deficiencies of the domestic vaccines which have been used as part of that jingoistic agenda.

The result was inevitable. A one-man government which imposed itself the need to eliminate a virus which cannot be eliminated... In an ultra-authoritarian system, that means the utterly dystopian and nightmarish ordeal that the population is currently forced to endure to serve the political ambitions of one man who sees his constituents as nothing but pawns to be used to manufacture his personal vision of a 'perfect' Chinese society.

This form of government is, by the way, the one he is and increasingly will seek to promote and subversively export around the World as he fundamentally considers any other form of government - especially democracies - as useless and doomed to fail.

I 100% agree with you, all points. It is now political theater in the name of controlling the uncontrollable.

I really wish we hadn't put the hospitals through the hell we had, but my relative who *used* to run a corona-virus ward, doesn't have any patients. Either they get well quick or they go to the ICU (my relative runs a critical care ward, not the ICU, there are tranches of care levels).

I agree with getting vaccinated. Now if it was SinoVac, I would be concerned (10.9X more likely to be hospitalized than with Moderna):
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapo ... dy-2625511

The vaccines work. I now how my first coworker catch the latest variant (probably the BA.2.12.1, I'm fairly certain what most of us caught at an after work event) who is unvaccinated catch it. Miserable. Much worse case than the vaccinated had. Not hospitalized. Ironically, he caught it while taking his wife out for a birthday dinner... I'll be curious as to the duration (so far 1 day longer than the vaccinated, none of us went past 5 days).

But China is well vaccinated. Warn everyone zero Covid ends in a few weeks and watch the rush for vaccines. Or not. At this point I don't think anyone wants to think about it anymore. But I would be concerned with how poorly SinoVac and SinoPharm are performing to keep people out of the hospital. In a country without a buffer of a high fraction of the population with mRNA vaccines, this could be exiting.

Wow, 97.4 times more likely to die unvaccinted than vaccinated. I wish their was a young child vaccine (ages say 1/2 year to 5 year), but alas there isn't. But at some time life must return to normal. We must live.
https://www.factcheck.org/2022/02/scich ... ed-adults/

I'm not saying their won't be cases. A group of us from work attended a fun after work function and 80% of us caught Covid19, but all mild (but all also vaccinated, I know few unvaccinated, so it is interesting to see how they do). Because the vaccinated carry a lower viral load, in areas with high vaccination rates, the transmission is less catastrophic (typically):
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/ ... on-spread/
This is because vaccinated people carry a viral load in their body that is overall lower than that of unvaccinated people; therefore, the virus cannot be transmitted as effectively.

e.g., your unvaccinated friend is 20x more likely to get you sick than a vaccinated friend:
https://theconversation.com/your-unvacc ... vid-170448

So China's problem is their vaccines aren't effective enough. Simple solutions boost (more of the same or import better vaccines) and move on. China has wasted a huge amount of time not solving a problem and instead locking down.

Meh... I'll go dancing today and have fun. My kids will play in the park with their friends. It just isn't understandable to lock down anymore, not when people have chosen their own risk level (and I feel lucky living in a super well vaccinated zip code).

Lightsaber


You left out the part where they cannot lose face by using "western" vaccines. Pfizer already signed a licensing agreement with a local Chinese company to produce their vaccine about a year ago. I think millions of doses are lying in storage but the CCP has not approved its use

I agree with you. Saving face means excusing making bad decisions to hide prior decisions.


Omicron will mutate too fast for zero-Covid. The concern is it is a myth viruses cannot mutate into something deadlier:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

At a mutation per week, this will remain interesting (faster mutating than previously thought):
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-mutation- ... igher.html
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon May 16, 2022 11:11 am

Shanghai plan gradual reopening as they claim all the new cases are now only discovered among isolated people or most strictly controlled communities. Aim is for reopening in June.
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14622298
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon May 16, 2022 4:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Omicron will mutate too fast for zero-Covid. The concern is it is a myth viruses cannot mutate into something deadlier:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

At a mutation per week, this will remain interesting (faster mutating than previously thought):
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-mutation- ... igher.html


If the evidence that Covid was circulating throughout the world in the latter half of 2019 which there is too much evidence to ignore then Covid zero was never really possible to begin with and is less so now.

Viruses can become more virulent but I think Covid already passed that phase.
I would argue that Alpha and Delta which were predominately behind covid's second and third waves of infections Winter 2020/2021 and Spring and fall 2021 were probably more virulent and had the the potential to have created far more carnage than they did because we were able to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable early 2021. This would make sense as the virus is adapting to its host and thus might be to virulent and moderate over time.

IIRC during the Spanish, the second wave was the worst (probably this is because it coincided with the end of WWI) and as that flu virus mutated it became less virulent in 1919 and 1920 which ended the pandemic but the H1N1 virus is still here and caused a pandemic in 2009.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... demic-end/

Omicron and its sub-variants seem to be less virulent and this is what any variant targeted booster should focus on. Its not impossible that Covid becomes more virulent but the trend doesn't seem to be going that way. Even those who are vaccinated against the natural strain of Covid aren't facing severe illness and death if they get Omicron or any of the sub-variants. Most people don't even know they have it.

Even with the high level of mutations they are random and one of them have to make the virus surviving more favourable and most of them are benign or destructive. Also if the virus evades all potential immune responses (antibody and cell mediated immunity) which Omicron does not then we have Covid-22 and it should be classified as a different virus. This is possible but looking at history this virus seems very ordinary and it might one day happen but not 3 years after being discovered. This is my opinion from reading the history of pandemics going back to 1889.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Mon May 16, 2022 9:00 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Omicron will mutate too fast for zero-Covid. The concern is it is a myth viruses cannot mutate into something deadlier:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

At a mutation per week, this will remain interesting (faster mutating than previously thought):
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-mutation- ... igher.html


If the evidence that Covid was circulating throughout the world in the latter half of 2019 which there is too much evidence to ignore then Covid zero was never really possible to begin with and is less so now.

Viruses can become more virulent but I think Covid already passed that phase.
I would argue that Alpha and Delta which were predominately behind covid's second and third waves of infections Winter 2020/2021 and Spring and fall 2021 were probably more virulent and had the the potential to have created far more carnage than they did because we were able to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable early 2021. This would make sense as the virus is adapting to its host and thus might be to virulent and moderate over time.

IIRC during the Spanish, the second wave was the worst (probably this is because it coincided with the end of WWI) and as that flu virus mutated it became less virulent in 1919 and 1920 which ended the pandemic but the H1N1 virus is still here and caused a pandemic in 2009.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... demic-end/

Omicron and its sub-variants seem to be less virulent and this is what any variant targeted booster should focus on. Its not impossible that Covid becomes more virulent but the trend doesn't seem to be going that way. Even those who are vaccinated against the natural strain of Covid aren't facing severe illness and death if they get Omicron or any of the sub-variants. Most people don't even know they have it.

Even with the high level of mutations they are random and one of them have to make the virus surviving more favourable and most of them are benign or destructive. Also if the virus evades all potential immune responses (antibody and cell mediated immunity) which Omicron does not then we have Covid-22 and it should be classified as a different virus. This is possible but looking at history this virus seems very ordinary and it might one day happen but not 3 years after being discovered. This is my opinion from reading the history of pandemics going back to 1889.

From this perspective, one of the (not the whole) reason that Omicron is winning out against other variants is it's different from pre-existing viruses that immune system of previously infected or vaccinated do not react to it as good as vorus of other variants.
If Omicron specific booster is being put out, wouldn't it risk levelling the playing field of Omicron with other variants, thus allowing more severe variants to circulate again?
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 17, 2022 2:19 am

c933103 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Omicron will mutate too fast for zero-Covid. The concern is it is a myth viruses cannot mutate into something deadlier:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

At a mutation per week, this will remain interesting (faster mutating than previously thought):
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-mutation- ... igher.html


If the evidence that Covid was circulating throughout the world in the latter half of 2019 which there is too much evidence to ignore then Covid zero was never really possible to begin with and is less so now.

Viruses can become more virulent but I think Covid already passed that phase.
I would argue that Alpha and Delta which were predominately behind covid's second and third waves of infections Winter 2020/2021 and Spring and fall 2021 were probably more virulent and had the the potential to have created far more carnage than they did because we were able to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable early 2021. This would make sense as the virus is adapting to its host and thus might be to virulent and moderate over time.

IIRC during the Spanish, the second wave was the worst (probably this is because it coincided with the end of WWI) and as that flu virus mutated it became less virulent in 1919 and 1920 which ended the pandemic but the H1N1 virus is still here and caused a pandemic in 2009.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... demic-end/

Omicron and its sub-variants seem to be less virulent and this is what any variant targeted booster should focus on. Its not impossible that Covid becomes more virulent but the trend doesn't seem to be going that way. Even those who are vaccinated against the natural strain of Covid aren't facing severe illness and death if they get Omicron or any of the sub-variants. Most people don't even know they have it.

Even with the high level of mutations they are random and one of them have to make the virus surviving more favourable and most of them are benign or destructive. Also if the virus evades all potential immune responses (antibody and cell mediated immunity) which Omicron does not then we have Covid-22 and it should be classified as a different virus. This is possible but looking at history this virus seems very ordinary and it might one day happen but not 3 years after being discovered. This is my opinion from reading the history of pandemics going back to 1889.

From this perspective, one of the (not the whole) reason that Omicron is winning out against other variants is it's different from pre-existing viruses that immune system of previously infected or vaccinated do not react to it as good as vorus of other variants.
If Omicron specific booster is being put out, wouldn't it risk levelling the playing field of Omicron with other variants, thus allowing more severe variants to circulate again?

It’s still not a completely naive infection. Omicron is certainly mutated enough to evade immunity from infection, but your body is still going to have some level of recognition of the virus and how to fight it.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 17, 2022 2:21 am

flyguy89 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

If the evidence that Covid was circulating throughout the world in the latter half of 2019 which there is too much evidence to ignore then Covid zero was never really possible to begin with and is less so now.

Viruses can become more virulent but I think Covid already passed that phase.
I would argue that Alpha and Delta which were predominately behind covid's second and third waves of infections Winter 2020/2021 and Spring and fall 2021 were probably more virulent and had the the potential to have created far more carnage than they did because we were able to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable early 2021. This would make sense as the virus is adapting to its host and thus might be to virulent and moderate over time.

IIRC during the Spanish, the second wave was the worst (probably this is because it coincided with the end of WWI) and as that flu virus mutated it became less virulent in 1919 and 1920 which ended the pandemic but the H1N1 virus is still here and caused a pandemic in 2009.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... demic-end/

Omicron and its sub-variants seem to be less virulent and this is what any variant targeted booster should focus on. Its not impossible that Covid becomes more virulent but the trend doesn't seem to be going that way. Even those who are vaccinated against the natural strain of Covid aren't facing severe illness and death if they get Omicron or any of the sub-variants. Most people don't even know they have it.

Even with the high level of mutations they are random and one of them have to make the virus surviving more favourable and most of them are benign or destructive. Also if the virus evades all potential immune responses (antibody and cell mediated immunity) which Omicron does not then we have Covid-22 and it should be classified as a different virus. This is possible but looking at history this virus seems very ordinary and it might one day happen but not 3 years after being discovered. This is my opinion from reading the history of pandemics going back to 1889.

From this perspective, one of the (not the whole) reason that Omicron is winning out against other variants is it's different from pre-existing viruses that immune system of previously infected or vaccinated do not react to it as good as vorus of other variants.
If Omicron specific booster is being put out, wouldn't it risk levelling the playing field of Omicron with other variants, thus allowing more severe variants to circulate again?

It’s still not a completely naive infection. Omicron is certainly mutated enough to evade immunity from infection, but your body is still going to have some level of recognition of the virus and how to fight it.

yes, but that also mean the population is more favorable to the survival of Omicron.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Wed May 18, 2022 2:08 am

The lockdowns in China are driving away foreign workers. A third plan to leave.

https://theloadstar.com/one-third-of-fo ... is-summer/


I agree with the above discussion that Omicron is able to slip by defenses. We're stuck with it unless a vaccine is invented that stops it.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Wed May 18, 2022 8:04 am

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E7%9A%84%E5% ... 25552.html

It's revealed that, a woman in Hong Kong died while trying to evade police crackdown of family gathering in March, claimed to be part of coronavirus prevention measure. It's believed that the woman fell off a building when hiding outside apartment building's window.
The woman was facing other charges, including riots, and face covering, in 2019 Hong Kong protest, where she was allegedly injurung a taxi driver, after the taxi driver running his taxi into a crowd. The government blocked lawsuits against that taxi driver. However lawsuit by the government against others at the scene continued, until like in this case which have the person died and thus is not able to proceed.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Thu May 19, 2022 3:50 pm

c933103 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Omicron will mutate too fast for zero-Covid. The concern is it is a myth viruses cannot mutate into something deadlier:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 839167002/

At a mutation per week, this will remain interesting (faster mutating than previously thought):
https://phys.org/news/2021-08-mutation- ... igher.html


If the evidence that Covid was circulating throughout the world in the latter half of 2019 which there is too much evidence to ignore then Covid zero was never really possible to begin with and is less so now.

Viruses can become more virulent but I think Covid already passed that phase.
I would argue that Alpha and Delta which were predominately behind covid's second and third waves of infections Winter 2020/2021 and Spring and fall 2021 were probably more virulent and had the the potential to have created far more carnage than they did because we were able to get vaccines into the arms of the most vulnerable early 2021. This would make sense as the virus is adapting to its host and thus might be to virulent and moderate over time.

IIRC during the Spanish, the second wave was the worst (probably this is because it coincided with the end of WWI) and as that flu virus mutated it became less virulent in 1919 and 1920 which ended the pandemic but the H1N1 virus is still here and caused a pandemic in 2009.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/ ... demic-end/

Omicron and its sub-variants seem to be less virulent and this is what any variant targeted booster should focus on. Its not impossible that Covid becomes more virulent but the trend doesn't seem to be going that way. Even those who are vaccinated against the natural strain of Covid aren't facing severe illness and death if they get Omicron or any of the sub-variants. Most people don't even know they have it.

Even with the high level of mutations they are random and one of them have to make the virus surviving more favourable and most of them are benign or destructive. Also if the virus evades all potential immune responses (antibody and cell mediated immunity) which Omicron does not then we have Covid-22 and it should be classified as a different virus. This is possible but looking at history this virus seems very ordinary and it might one day happen but not 3 years after being discovered. This is my opinion from reading the history of pandemics going back to 1889.

From this perspective, one of the (not the whole) reason that Omicron is winning out against other variants is it's different from pre-existing viruses that immune system of previously infected or vaccinated do not react to it as good as vorus of other variants.
If Omicron specific booster is being put out, wouldn't it risk levelling the playing field of Omicron with other variants, thus allowing more severe variants to circulate again?


Your immunity never wains completely, there is still a T-cell response that leads to none to mild symptoms in most people (ie a cold or mild flu) and reinfections will happen regularly so that your body will always remember the virus in some capacity so any future variants there will be some degree won't lead to another pandemic. Its also an argument for an annual shot like the flu shot where the dominant strain of a given year is given out and the strains change year to year. This should not be mandatory.

Covid is looking to become the 5th endemic coronaviruses that causers primarily colds in the human population the other 4 are everywhere. Furthermore it seems that at least one of those endemic coronaviruses is responsible for the pandemic of 1889-1890.

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wile ... 7915.13889

This sounds harsh especially if you happen to have lost a loved or you happen to struggle with long covid or know someone who does, but nature isn't nice.

This pandemic is very normal as per historical standards, its like the a devastating volcanic eruption like Mt. Pinatubo, Krakatoa or Mt. Tambora (that would be the Spanish flu). They happen and will continue to happen and they kill people. As Neil DeGrasse Tyson says nature is trying always to kill us and it will eventually.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat May 21, 2022 7:05 am

CNN has an opinion piece calling for massive aid to North Korea to stave off a catastrophic COVID outbreak.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/opinions ... index.html

Gonna be a pretty tough sell to the rest of the world. China and South Korea should take care of this one.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat May 21, 2022 2:47 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
CNN has an opinion piece calling for massive aid to North Korea to stave off a catastrophic COVID outbreak.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/opinions ... index.html

Gonna be a pretty tough sell to the rest of the world. China and South Korea should take care of this one.

Japan, South Korea, China, are all willing to help, despite the new South Korean government's position being much more hostile against North Korea than the previous administration, and despite Japan have been keep getting missile alerts from North Korea recently. But the thing is, North Korea have been shutting down all foreign aids including regular aids since year 2020. Citing concern on possibility of the virus's transmission through human or objects that pass through their border. Last year the previous South Korean government proposed having talks to solve some diplomatic issues between the two countries, but the mere proposal of talk itself was deemed provocative by North Korean government as it defies the border lockdown policy. Now that infection is spreading inside North Korea, such measure obviously no longer make sense, but whether it is going to change will depends on how open NK have been to foreign help. Some have said that North Korea publishing such number in such volume is in fact an indirect way to ask for help without saying they want help, but whether external help can reach North Korea is going to entirely depend on the attitude of North Korean government.

It should also be noted that WHO COVAX in the past have offered AstraZeneca to North Korea. But the report was that North Korean government rejected them, asking do they have mRNAs. Now there are some extra supply of mRNA vaccines around the world, I am not sure what sort of content there might be in place for them. According to my memory, most international organizations no longer have staffs in North Korea because of their border control rule prevented any staff rotation.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Sat May 21, 2022 7:47 pm

c933103 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
CNN has an opinion piece calling for massive aid to North Korea to stave off a catastrophic COVID outbreak.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/opinions ... index.html

Gonna be a pretty tough sell to the rest of the world. China and South Korea should take care of this one.

Japan, South Korea, China, are all willing to help, despite the new South Korean government's position being much more hostile against North Korea than the previous administration, and despite Japan have been keep getting missile alerts from North Korea recently. But the thing is, North Korea have been shutting down all foreign aids including regular aids since year 2020. Citing concern on possibility of the virus's transmission through human or objects that pass through their border. Last year the previous South Korean government proposed having talks to solve some diplomatic issues between the two countries, but the mere proposal of talk itself was deemed provocative by North Korean government as it defies the border lockdown policy. Now that infection is spreading inside North Korea, such measure obviously no longer make sense, but whether it is going to change will depends on how open NK have been to foreign help. Some have said that North Korea publishing such number in such volume is in fact an indirect way to ask for help without saying they want help, but whether external help can reach North Korea is going to entirely depend on the attitude of North Korean government.

It should also be noted that WHO COVAX in the past have offered AstraZeneca to North Korea. But the report was that North Korean government rejected them, asking do they have mRNAs. Now there are some extra supply of mRNA vaccines around the world, I am not sure what sort of content there might be in place for them. According to my memory, most international organizations no longer have staffs in North Korea because of their border control rule prevented any staff rotation.

South Korea makes Moderna. That will help.

Send NK Sinovac. :devil:
 
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c933103
Posts: 6708
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 31, 2022 4:26 am

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%9E%97%E9% ... 49086.html

Carrie Lam: Hong Kong did not have sufficient capability to fight against Omicron, as the city return to normal, citizens must be grateful from heart to thank timely support sent by the Central Chinese government and cooperation of citizens.

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%B8%AF%E5% ... 32371.html

Hong Kong government said that, as recently many coronavirus cases are found among inbound travellers on the PCR test taken by them on 12th day of arrival, inbound travellers will be required to take an additional PCR test on the 9th day of arrival, in order to.reduce the risk of the virus being spreaded into community. Also, additional fine and landing ban have been imposed against airlines if any of their passengers are discovered as not having proper pre departure test documents
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2513
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2022

Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 am

c933103 wrote:
Hong Kong government said that, as recently many coronavirus cases are found among inbound travellers on the PCR test taken by them on 12th day of arrival, inbound travellers will be required to take an additional PCR test on the 9th day of arrival, in order to.reduce the risk of the virus being spreaded into community. Also, additional fine and landing ban have been imposed against airlines if any of their passengers are discovered as not having proper pre departure test documents


Did HK have later PCR testing before? Here in Australia during quarantine for returned travellers, most states had arrival, day 5 and day 10 PCR.

Is the plan to kill the HK economy via lockdowns? NSW is a similar population to HK (although far less dense)and although case numbers remain quite high, hospitalisations and deaths are little different to HK in lockdown. Perhaps the HK population skews older than here?

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