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DIRECTFLT
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2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:37 am

So it's NEVER then ... 8-)

Climate change: UN IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60984663

"I think the report tells us that we've reached the now-or-never point of limiting warming to 1.5C," said IPCC lead author Heleen De Coninck, who's Professor of Socio-Technical Innovation and Climate Change at Eindhoven University of Technology.

Keeping temperatures down will require massive changes to energy production, industry, transport, our consumption patterns and the way we treat nature.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:33 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
So it's NEVER then ... 8-)

Climate change: UN IPCC scientists say it's 'now or never' to limit warming

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60984663

"I think the report tells us that we've reached the now-or-never point of limiting warming to 1.5C," said IPCC lead author Heleen De Coninck, who's Professor of Socio-Technical Innovation and Climate Change at Eindhoven University of Technology.

Keeping temperatures down will require massive changes to energy production, industry, transport, our consumption patterns and the way we treat nature.


Not doing it will require hundreds of billions of dollars in coastal protection mitigation, unless we're going to move most of the sea-level economic centers on Earth inland. Places that will be temperate in the future, like Canada and subarctic Europe, are going to get much more crowded in the next 100 years as aridification and climbing heat indexes make places like the Middle East and South Asia uninhabitable.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:45 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
So it's NEVER then ... 8-)


Given the severity of the "never", I do not get the " 8-) " . I gave a presentation to a pension fund today about this subject. One of the slides might be relevant to you: the different scenarios: 0,8C - 1,5C - 2,0C - 3/4C - 5/6C --> anything about 2,0 degrees is quite catastrophic, 5/6C is anybody's guess, but I will promise you it will not be good.

Just out of interest, I looked up what the average temperature was during the last ice age, it was 6 degrees below pre-industrial levels. I know that some will dismiss any kind of alarmist, on the other hand, consider this cartoon:

Image


source
 
ACDC8
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:12 pm

Been listening to these groups say its "now or never" for the last 30 years.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for bettering the way we interact and live on this planet and lessen our impact on the environment, I'm just getting tired of the drama that evolves from what should be simple evolution of our development of technology.

The more they use scare tactics like this, the more they're going to push people away from being better stewards of the Earth, especially at this point in time, after the whole pandemic and the division its caused, they really need to figure out a better approach.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:20 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Been listening to these groups say its "now or never" for the last 30 years.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for bettering the way we interact and live on this planet and lessen our impact on the environment, I'm just getting tired of the drama that evolves from what should be simple evolution of our development of technology.

The more they use scare tactics like this, the more they're going to push people away from being better stewards of the Earth, especially at this point in time, after the whole pandemic and the division its caused, they really need to figure out a better approach.


The drama is from the incredible costs coming to mitigate the situation. Our numbers are increasing, not the other way ‘round.

Is it cheaper to fix a leaky roof before or after a week of rain?
 
ACDC8
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:35 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
The drama is from the incredible costs coming to mitigate the situation. Our numbers are increasing, not the other way ‘round.

Is it cheaper to fix a leaky roof before or after a week of rain?

No, the drama comes from being bombarded with the "this is our last chance" headlines we've been hearing for the last 30 plus years.

There are a lot of folks out there that can't afford to fix their leaky roofs and punishing them through taxes isn't helping get any more money to fix that roof.

I'm not agreeing/disagreeing with the scientists, I'm just saying they need to figure out a different approach to get the message across.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:47 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
The drama is from the incredible costs coming to mitigate the situation. Our numbers are increasing, not the other way ‘round.

Is it cheaper to fix a leaky roof before or after a week of rain?

No, the drama comes from being bombarded with the "this is our last chance" headlines we've been hearing for the last 30 plus years.

There are a lot of folks out there that can't afford to fix their leaky roofs and punishing them through taxes isn't helping get any more money to fix that roof.


That’s the classic dilemma of human nature - nobody wants to pay. And then a problem gets big enough that there’s no choice and it costs dramatically more than if it were tackled early.

In the US alone these costs are equivalent to building the entire interstate system.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/who-will ... ising-seas

Globally it could be in the $6 trillion+ range, and some say even that is too conservative. So pay now, or start phased relocation of economic centers to inland locations?
 
ACDC8
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:57 am

Aaron747 wrote:
That’s the classic dilemma of human nature - nobody wants to pay. And then a problem gets big enough that there’s no choice and it costs dramatically more than if it were tackled early.

In the US alone these costs are equivalent to building the entire interstate system.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/who-will ... ising-seas

Globally it could be in the $6 trillion+ range, and some say even that is too conservative. So pay now, or start phased relocation of economic centers to inland locations?

Repeating doomsday scenarios over and over again isn't going to shift people into EVs or change their behaviour and may even push more people away from them. Government mandates are an option, but right now, Governments need to tread very lightly with such legislation.

Again, I'm not questioning the urgency, I'm questioning the methods.
 
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zkojq
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Fri Apr 08, 2022 5:01 pm

The scary part isn't the resources required to cut emissions, but rather the prospect of it becoming "unstoppable" with no going back. Once the Permafrost melts (and releases an enormous quantity of methane), how do you reverse it?


Also, it's worth pointing out that by the time that an IPCC Report is vetted and published, the data it is based on is usually at least three years old, so the reality will be even more pessimistic.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:37 pm

Humans are not sufficiently evolved to deal with plagues, let alone global warming.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:50 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Been listening to these groups say its "now or never" for the last 30 years.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for bettering the way we interact and live on this planet and lessen our impact on the environment, I'm just getting tired of the drama that evolves from what should be simple evolution of our development of technology.

The more they use scare tactics like this, the more they're going to push people away from being better stewards of the Earth, especially at this point in time, after the whole pandemic and the division its caused, they really need to figure out a better approach.


100% Sky is falling down all the time :rotfl:
 
Kilopond
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sat Apr 09, 2022 9:06 pm

The IPCC is refusing to use SI units. They are just a bunch of neomarxist charlatans.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 2:31 am

A101 wrote:

100% Sky is falling down all the time :rotfl:


I wonder if those using that line today, if they’re still around in 30 or 40 years time will refrain from saying “Why weren’t the scientists more urgent with their warnings?!” when the consequences of climate action become more apparent?
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 3:16 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
A101 wrote:

100% Sky is falling down all the time :rotfl:


I wonder if those using that line today, if they’re still around in 30 or 40 years time will refrain from saying “Why weren’t the scientists more urgent with their warnings?!” when the consequences of climate action become more apparent?


Well I can guarantee I won’t be saying it, but I’ll be getting a birthday card from the king if I’m still kicking in that time frame
 
LabQuest
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 3:32 am

How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?
 
cpd
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:09 am

LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?


No flying at all since 2019. I’m doing my part. What about you?

This year it looks unlikely I’ll fly anyway due to my surgery and recovery. That wasn’t how things should have been.

I’m fortunate that I can work from home so I do that and I’m not contributing to traffic congestion (which I didn’t do anyway because I would ride a bicycle to and from work - 70km per day).

I also generate my own electricity through solar power. I’m not very well off, I’m not “elite” - I’m very much working class but I work hard.
 
pune
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:51 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Humans are not sufficiently evolved to deal with plagues, let alone global warming.


This I agree with cent per cent. I am seeing the same here.
 
tomaheath
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:18 pm

LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?

Not me.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:38 pm

LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?


Flying is a pretty small piece of the puzzle overall. Agriculture, energy, and sea shipping are the priorities.
 
tomaheath
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Mon Apr 11, 2022 8:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?


Flying is a pretty small piece of the puzzle overall. Agriculture, energy, and sea shipping are the priorities.

Is there alot of older cargo ships? Or are they replaced often like a cruise ship?
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:28 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?


Flying is a pretty small piece of the puzzle overall. Agriculture, energy, and sea shipping are the priorities.

Is there alot of older cargo ships? Or are they replaced often like a cruise ship?


Cargo ships generally have a life expectancy of 25-30 years but that does not mean major fleet operators keep them that long

Much like a plane in major airlines they are replaced periodically by the company policy when cheaper to operate planes become available, in shipping it may be cheaper to build new than refit, Also I think there will be hesitancy soon to replace as operators will be looking at because of new decarbonization rules that may be poorly inflicted on the industry
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:23 pm

A101 wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Flying is a pretty small piece of the puzzle overall. Agriculture, energy, and sea shipping are the priorities.

Is there alot of older cargo ships? Or are they replaced often like a cruise ship?


Cargo ships generally have a life expectancy of 25-30 years but that does not mean major fleet operators keep them that long

Much like a plane in major airlines they are replaced periodically by the company policy when cheaper to operate planes become available, in shipping it may be cheaper to build new than refit, Also I think there will be hesitancy soon to replace as operators will be looking at because of new decarbonization rules that may be poorly inflicted on the industry



The fuel efficiency gains in shipping now are very hard to come by. It's still a huge shoe box with a pointy end on it. Engines have improved but further gains will be in the 1 to 3% range every so many years.

Shipborne emissions have exponentally grown with the rise of Asia as the manufacturing power house. Ships need a new fuel - short distances maybe electric but the biggest emitters will need to go to something like methanol.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:21 am

MohawkWeekend wrote:
A101 wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
Is there alot of older cargo ships? Or are they replaced often like a cruise ship?


Cargo ships generally have a life expectancy of 25-30 years but that does not mean major fleet operators keep them that long

Much like a plane in major airlines they are replaced periodically by the company policy when cheaper to operate planes become available, in shipping it may be cheaper to build new than refit, Also I think there will be hesitancy soon to replace as operators will be looking at because of new decarbonization rules that may be poorly inflicted on the industry



The fuel efficiency gains in shipping now are very hard to come by. It's still a huge shoe box with a pointy end on it. Engines have improved but further gains will be in the 1 to 3% range every so many years.

Shipborne emissions have exponentally grown with the rise of Asia as the manufacturing power house. Ships need a new fuel - short distances maybe electric but the biggest emitters will need to go to something like methanol.


Most methanol is currently made via natural gas, if they move to 100% renewable i wonder if they could keep up with supply without more deforestation?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:49 am

A good percentage of shipping CO2 comes from transporting oil and coal. As renewable energy begins taking over there will be some 'virtuous circle' lessening of shipping. Also going mostly electric for ground transportation and building heating and cooling will create still more 'virtuous circling', just from the greater efficiency of electric
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:50 am

A101 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
A101 wrote:

100% Sky is falling down all the time :rotfl:


I wonder if those using that line today, if they’re still around in 30 or 40 years time will refrain from saying “Why weren’t the scientists more urgent with their warnings?!” when the consequences of climate action become more apparent?


Well I can guarantee I won’t be saying it, but I’ll be getting a birthday card from the king if I’m still kicking in that time frame


What are you saying? You do not care what kind of world you leave to your (grand-) children?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:08 am

ACDC8 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
The drama is from the incredible costs coming to mitigate the situation. Our numbers are increasing, not the other way ‘round.

Is it cheaper to fix a leaky roof before or after a week of rain?

No, the drama comes from being bombarded with the "this is our last chance" headlines we've been hearing for the last 30 plus years.

There are a lot of folks out there that can't afford to fix their leaky roofs and punishing them through taxes isn't helping get any more money to fix that roof.

I'm not agreeing/disagreeing with the scientists, I'm just saying they need to figure out a different approach to get the message across.


Those are two different things. Things could be quite bad if we do nothing. IPPC reports are being written for governments to base their policies on, not primarily for the general public. IPPC warnings have become more severe during the last 30 years because the evidence has become a lot stronger.

The second part is the cost. Sure, the burden is uneven, that is a political problem and could be solved with political will.

We need to change the system, before anything else.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:23 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:

I wonder if those using that line today, if they’re still around in 30 or 40 years time will refrain from saying “Why weren’t the scientists more urgent with their warnings?!” when the consequences of climate action become more apparent?


Well I can guarantee I won’t be saying it, but I’ll be getting a birthday card from the king if I’m still kicking in that time frame


What are you saying? You do not care what kind of world you leave to your (grand-) children?


I think you know the answer to that, as I have debated it in another thread, no need to rehash the debate as you believe what you believe and I believe what I believe

But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:34 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

Well I can guarantee I won’t be saying it, but I’ll be getting a birthday card from the king if I’m still kicking in that time frame


What are you saying? You do not care what kind of world you leave to your (grand-) children?


I think you know the answer to that, as I have debated it in another thread, no need to rehash the debate as you believe what you believe and I believe what I believe

But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency


You believe what you believe and I believe in science. One has the right its own opinion, not its own facts.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:43 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

What are you saying? You do not care what kind of world you leave to your (grand-) children?


I think you know the answer to that, as I have debated it in another thread, no need to rehash the debate as you believe what you believe and I believe what I believe

But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency


You believe what you believe and I believe in science. One has the right its own opinion, not its own facts.




To which I gave the facts not my own opinion, if you cannot see the forest from the trees its not my problem. :coffee:
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:14 am

A101 wrote:
To which I gave the facts not my own opinion, if you cannot see the forest from the trees its not my problem. :coffee:


To which I said, the IPPC disagrees with you and that is the best interpretation of the facts that we know.

A101 wrote:
But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency


Is very much an opinion, not fact. Debating someone who does not accept facts is pointless because all arguments put forward are based on false assumptions. But as said, you can have your opinion as you wish.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:35 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
To which I gave the facts not my own opinion, if you cannot see the forest from the trees its not my problem. :coffee:


To which I said, the IPPC disagrees with you and that is the best interpretation of the facts that we know.



And you still have not proven they are right.

But we have been through before so I’ll leave it at that



Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency


Is very much an opinion, not fact. Debating someone who does not accept facts is pointless because all arguments put forward are based on false assumptions. But as said, you can have your opinion as you wish.


If you want to go to the old thread and learn something be my guest, but remember they were facts I presented not opinion

It’s also pointless debate someone who doesn’t want to open there eyes and do there own research on the matter, if you want to take the IPCC report at face value I’m not stopping you
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:09 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
To which I gave the facts not my own opinion, if you cannot see the forest from the trees its not my problem. :coffee:


To which I said, the IPPC disagrees with you and that is the best interpretation of the facts that we know.



And you still have not proven they are right.

But we have been through before so I’ll leave it at that



Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

But I’ll say it again the Sky is not falling down and there is no climate emergency


Is very much an opinion, not fact. Debating someone who does not accept facts is pointless because all arguments put forward are based on false assumptions. But as said, you can have your opinion as you wish.


If you want to go to the old thread and learn something be my guest, but remember they were facts I presented not opinion

It’s also pointless debate someone who doesn’t want to open there eyes and do there own research on the matter, if you want to take the IPCC report at face value I’m not stopping you


Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:34 am

Aaron747 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

To which I said, the IPPC disagrees with you and that is the best interpretation of the facts that we know.



And you still have not proven they are right.

But we have been through before so I’ll leave it at that



Dutchy wrote:

Is very much an opinion, not fact. Debating someone who does not accept facts is pointless because all arguments put forward are based on false assumptions. But as said, you can have your opinion as you wish.


If you want to go to the old thread and learn something be my guest, but remember they were facts I presented not opinion

It’s also pointless debate someone who doesn’t want to open there eyes and do there own research on the matter, if you want to take the IPCC report at face value I’m not stopping you


Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.


Never said they were wrong and have never said I was right,

The evidence presented as I said is in the previous thread. All scientist do not agree the IPCC models are known to be flawed.
The evidence I presented and researched did not prove that the IPCC report is correct there were lots of evidence to show that it might not happen, up to you to separate the wheat from the chaff

But as I said done to death and cannot be stuffed in rehashing it
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:07 pm

A101 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
A101 wrote:

The fuel efficiency gains in shipping now are very hard to come by. It's still a huge shoe box with a pointy end on it. Engines have improved but further gains will be in the 1 to 3% range every so many years.

Shipborne emissions have exponentally grown with the rise of Asia as the manufacturing power house. Ships need a new fuel - short distances maybe electric but the biggest emitters will need to go to something like methanol.


Most methanol is currently made via natural gas, if they move to 100% renewable i wonder if they could keep up with supply without more deforestation?



Agree on the deforestation but in the States a lot of wood waste is "wasted" and ground up into landscape material or sent to a landfill. Imagine we'd need subsidies to build many distilleries but we did that with ethanol and corn
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:41 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
A101 wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:

Most methanol is currently made via natural gas, if they move to 100% renewable i wonder if they could keep up with supply without more deforestation?



Agree on the deforestation but in the States a lot of wood waste is "wasted" and ground up into landscape material or sent to a landfill. Imagine we'd need subsidies to build many distilleries but we did that with ethanol and corn



I did I quick check under the US EPA 12.5miilion tonnes of wood wasted ended up in landfill in 2018, and that’s with the new biomass usesage for power plants and landscaping materials which is surprising actually, but I imagine if the world turns more to methanol I think there still will be waste to a degree it’s inevitable

Back when Australia introduced E10 blended fuel there were concerns that it might lead to competition for land from other uses such as food and exports.how that translated in the end I do not have the information available, but there is concern about the continuing of deforestation in Australia and the world has not moved to 100% renewables yet
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:07 pm

A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.


Never said they were wrong and have never said I was right


So what are you saying exectly? You do not know, but like to bring up stuff you do not believe in yourself?
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.


Never said they were wrong and have never said I was right


So what are you saying exectly? You do not know, but like to bring up stuff you do not believe in yourself?


What I’m saying is the future climate change reports are all speculative and no really knows what’s going to happen.

What I do believe is that there is no climate emergency We know the modelling is flawed we know the climate is naturally evolving, even pro climate change scientist cannot agree on when the sky is falling down, as noted previously they have been the doomsayers for the last 30 years

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 30, 1989
A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

UN scientists warn time is running out to tackle global warming
David Adam Guardian in 2007.
But there could be as little as eight years left to avoid a dangerous global average rise of 2C or more.

We Have 10 Years Left To Save The World, Says Climate Expert
By
Laura Paddison
Feb. 21, 2020
Christiana Figueres, the lead U.N. negotiator of the Paris climate agreement, says the next decade is the most important in the history of humanity.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:34 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

Never said they were wrong and have never said I was right


So what are you saying exectly? You do not know, but like to bring up stuff you do not believe in yourself?


What I’m saying is the future climate change reports are all speculative and no really knows what’s going to happen.


And thus Aaron was right:

Aaron747 wrote:
Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.


Science isn't "all speculative". Saying that is dismissing all science. Yes, scientists disagree, that helps science to get to new insides into the problem. But you only dismiss it because you don't like the outcome.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:47 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

So what are you saying exectly? You do not know, but like to bring up stuff you do not believe in yourself?


What I’m saying is the future climate change reports are all speculative and no really knows what’s going to happen.


And thus Aaron was right:

No not at all, you still have not proved the IPCC report is correct

It works both ways
 
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Dutchy
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:08 pm

A101 wrote:
No not at all, you still have not proved the IPCC report is correct

It works both ways


No, it doesn't. IPCC report is done by top scientists. I do not have to prove anything. If you want to prove the IPCC is wrong, be my guest and write your scientific paper and publish it in nature. Until then, I believe the scientist of the IPCC and not just a random person from an internet forum.

Aaron747 wrote:
Saying 'experts are wrong' loudly does not make it so - as Carl Sagan said, 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'.


You are not debating us, mate, you are debating the experts. I am not an expert, so I listen to the experts.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:28 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

What I’m saying is the future climate change reports are all speculative and no really knows what’s going to happen.


And thus Aaron was right:

No not at all, you still have not proved the IPCC report is correct

It works both ways


No that's not how science works - there is a consensus on where/how/why data is trending, and that's only a starting point. The exact ins and outs are not known, get debated, and forecasts are continually revised based on data. For example in recent years the rate of permafrost thawing in the Arctic has actually been beyond expectations, so IPCC and other reports have had to include those observations in their revised calculations. 3% of scientists or whatever disagreeing with that consensus is not enough to sway the trendlines unless someone publishes data of tremendous value/import.

Geophysicists, climatologists, oceanographers, ecologists etc are all working together on different parts of the problem within their expertise. We, as laypersons, do not have their expertise, and it's only arrogance to presume we understand the issue better, or can say what the forecasts do/don't represent based on internet conjecture. :boggled:
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:11 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
No not at all, you still have not proved the IPCC report is correct

It works both ways


No, it doesn't. IPCC report is done by top scientists. I do not have to prove anything. If you want to prove the IPCC is wrong, be my guest and write your scientific paper and publish it in nature. Until then, I believe the scientist of the IPCC and not just a random person from an internet forum.



So, you do not want to research yourself that's fine, each to there own

I too do not need to publish as the previous evidence I referenced in the old thread was done by scientist as well which proved the modelling was wrong
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:12 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
No that's not how science works - there is a consensus on where/how/why data is trending, and that's only a starting point.

Just because there is a consensus does not mean its is correct, people can interpret the data differently hence why there is disagreement within the scientific community about future projections
Aaron747 wrote:
The exact ins and outs are not known, get debated, and forecasts are continually revised based on data.

So, you and I actually agree, that future forecast is not known and speculative
Aaron747 wrote:
For example in recent years the rate of permafrost thawing in the Arctic has actually been beyond expectations, so IPCC and other reports have had to include those observations in their revised calculations. 3% of scientists or whatever disagreeing with that consensus is not enough to sway the trendlines unless someone publishes data of tremendous value/import.

Example have been shown in the previous thread that the temperature is not rising along with the modelling, just because there is a consensus does not mean they are correct just means more agree than not
Aaron747 wrote:
Geophysicists, climatologists, oceanographers, ecologists etc are all working together on different parts of the problem within their expertise. We, as laypersons, do not have their expertise, and it's only arrogance to presume we understand the issue better, or can say what the forecasts do/don't represent based on internet conjecture. :boggled:

Agree, that’s why one can look do their own research as was shown in the old thread using learned persons own field expertise, one can make their own judgement to agree or not

But I suggest we move on and agree to disagree otherwise the thread will go the same way as the old and the mods step in
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:42 pm

A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
No that's not how science works - there is a consensus on where/how/why data is trending, and that's only a starting point.

Just because there is a consensus does not mean its is correct, people can interpret the data differently hence why there is disagreement within the scientific community about future projections
Aaron747 wrote:
The exact ins and outs are not known, get debated, and forecasts are continually revised based on data.

So, you and I actually agree, that future forecast is not known and speculative
Aaron747 wrote:
For example in recent years the rate of permafrost thawing in the Arctic has actually been beyond expectations, so IPCC and other reports have had to include those observations in their revised calculations. 3% of scientists or whatever disagreeing with that consensus is not enough to sway the trendlines unless someone publishes data of tremendous value/import.

Example have been shown in the previous thread that the temperature is not rising along with the modelling, just because there is a consensus does not mean they are correct just means more agree than not
Aaron747 wrote:
Geophysicists, climatologists, oceanographers, ecologists etc are all working together on different parts of the problem within their expertise. We, as laypersons, do not have their expertise, and it's only arrogance to presume we understand the issue better, or can say what the forecasts do/don't represent based on internet conjecture. :boggled:

Agree, that’s why one can look do their own research as was shown in the old thread using learned persons own field expertise, one can make their own judgement to agree or not

But I suggest we move on and agree to disagree otherwise the thread will go the same way as the old and the mods step in


Disagreement on precise forecasts is normal - you will not find reputable scientists saying their conclusions are 100% airtight. It is also not accurate to call such forecasts ‘speculative’ as they are based on intricate modeling with many known variables and inputs. Your interpretation of what those differences mean is just premature and/or from a position of lacking expertise.
 
A101
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:00 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Disagreement on precise forecasts is normal - you will not find reputable scientists saying their conclusions are 100% airtight. It is also not accurate to call such forecasts ‘speculative’ as they are based on intricate modeling with many known variables and inputs. Your interpretation of what those differences mean is just premature and/or from a position of lacking expertise.

Once again you are supporting my argument, the models used within the IPCC report are predictive and are built from sets of possible scenarios from special research groups within the IPCC research community and join together to speculate about what the world might be like in the future. What we are seeing is that the speculative models are not falling in place with the trend line that is actually occurring
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:44 am

A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Disagreement on precise forecasts is normal - you will not find reputable scientists saying their conclusions are 100% airtight. It is also not accurate to call such forecasts ‘speculative’ as they are based on intricate modeling with many known variables and inputs. Your interpretation of what those differences mean is just premature and/or from a position of lacking expertise.

Once again you are supporting my argument, the models used within the IPCC report are predictive and are built from sets of possible scenarios from special research groups within the IPCC research community and join together to speculate about what the world might be like in the future. What we are seeing is that the speculative models are not falling in place with the trend line that is actually occurring


LOL interesting take. Which of the models is not falling in line? Are you talking about a single standard deviation anomaly or multiple ones?

Detailed meta-analyses do not support your contention.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -warming/#
 
A101
Posts: 2956
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:50 am

Aaron747 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Disagreement on precise forecasts is normal - you will not find reputable scientists saying their conclusions are 100% airtight. It is also not accurate to call such forecasts ‘speculative’ as they are based on intricate modeling with many known variables and inputs. Your interpretation of what those differences mean is just premature and/or from a position of lacking expertise.

Once again you are supporting my argument, the models used within the IPCC report are predictive and are built from sets of possible scenarios from special research groups within the IPCC research community and join together to speculate about what the world might be like in the future. What we are seeing is that the speculative models are not falling in place with the trend line that is actually occurring


LOL interesting take. Which of the models is not falling in line? Are you talking about a single standard deviation anomaly or multiple ones?

Detailed meta-analyses do not support your contention.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -warming/#


As I said I'm not rehashing what was said in the previous thread, if you want to look through the older thread you can get the information
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:28 am

A101 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Once again you are supporting my argument, the models used within the IPCC report are predictive and are built from sets of possible scenarios from special research groups within the IPCC research community and join together to speculate about what the world might be like in the future. What we are seeing is that the speculative models are not falling in place with the trend line that is actually occurring


LOL interesting take. Which of the models is not falling in line? Are you talking about a single standard deviation anomaly or multiple ones?

Detailed meta-analyses do not support your contention.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -warming/#


As I said I'm not rehashing what was said in the previous thread, if you want to look through the older thread you can get the information


If the information is not Earth-shaking, it does not upend any consensus or the performance of models overall to date.
 
Redd
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:18 am

cpd wrote:
LabQuest wrote:
How many of us have cut down our flying to do our part in this?


No flying at all since 2019. I’m doing my part. What about you?

.


Was that because you were doing your part, or because you live in Australia that didn't easily allow citizens to travel? In that case, every citizen/resident was doing their part.
 
cpd
Posts: 7244
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Re: 2022 IPCC Climate Change Report

Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:00 am

I limit my flying to only when it’s necessary. But when I do it’s usually J or F. But compared to others I’m not doing much flying at all.I’m not booking a ticket just to get a last flight on a certain type of plane or to say I’ve flown on Airline X with a certain plane Y into a particular destination Z.

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